Reason-Rupe has a new survey and report out
on millennials—find the report
here.
At first glance millennials appear to prefer a “larger
government providing more services” (54%) over a “smaller
government providing few services” (43%). However, once tax rates
are mentioned support for large government flips. Instead 57
percent favor “smaller government, providing fewer services, with
low taxes” and 41 percent want “larger government providing more
services, with high taxes.” We also find that the race/ethnicity
gap on the size of government disappears among Hispanic, Asian, and
white millennials once tax rates are explicit.
Other
surveys have asked the first version of this question, in
which taxes are not mentioned, finding millennials are the only
generation to support large government. In stark contrast,
Americans nationally favor smaller
government with fewer services over larger government providing
more services (35%).
Typically, “big government” has implied high taxes, heavy
regulation, and the power to play favorites and control
individuals. However, debate about the role of government was put
on hold in the aftermath of 9/11, when millennials came of a
politically impressionable age. Furthermore, the national enemy was
no longer a large totalitarian regime like the Soviet Union, but
terrorist groups from whose attacks our government sought to
protect us.
This raises the question: Do millennials know what the phrase
“big government” means? Recent evidence suggests they may
not. If millennials don’t know what large government is, do
they know what it costs? If not, perhaps their preference for
“more services” over “fewer services” drives their desire for
“larger government.”
To investigate this, Reason-Rupe divided the sample in half and
asked one half:
“If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller
government providing fewer services, or a larger government
providing more services?”
It then asked the other half of the sample the same question but
with explicit tax rates:
“If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller
government providing fewer services with low taxes, or a larger
government providing more services with high taxes?”
When taxes are mentioned, millennials’ preference for large
government flips, and a majority (57%)— favor small government and
41 percent favor large government.
Our results indicate that millennials don’t immediately make the
connection between larger government and the high taxes it
requires. Consequently, support for “larger government providing
more services” among millennials doesn’t necessarily imply an
endorsement for a large activist government that levies heavy
taxes. Instead, many are favoring “more services” rather than more
services plus high taxes. Perhaps older Americans would also favor
more over less government services if they felt it wouldn’t cost
them.
Are Non-white Millennials More Likely To Support Large
Government?
Congruent with findings from
the Pew Research Center, white millennials (50%) are considerably
more likely to favor smaller government when taxes are not
mentioned than African-American (32%), Latino (36%), and Asian
American (29%) millennials. Consequently, at first glance,
non-white millennials are far more likely to favor larger
government.
However, after considering taxes, the racial gap on the
preferred size of government starts to disappear. The share of
Latino, Asian, and white millennials preferring small government is
statistically identical, with roughly six in 10 in support.
African-American millennials are divided, with a slim majority
favoring larger over smaller government, even if that means higher
taxes (53 to 46 percent). It appears that white millennials are
more likely to implicitly associate large government with high
taxes.
Available data suggest that Latino and Asian millennials, many
of whom are themselves immigrants or children of recent immigrants,
will likely experience a good deal of upward income mobility. For
instance, the Pew Research Center reports that
the median annual household income for first generation Hispanics
is $34,600, and this increases to $48,400 among the second
generation. Since higher incomes often diminish
support for government services, our results indicate that
desire for activist government may decline over the next decade if
large government and high taxes are explicitly connected in voters’
minds.
Millennials Respond More Favorably to Concrete Proposals to
Limit Government Than Abstract References About Government’s
Size
If the abstract notion of government’s “size” does not convey
the same substantive meaning for millennials that it has for
previous generations, perhaps more concrete policy proposals would
garner greater support than calls to “reduce the size of
government.”
To test this, the survey presented millennials with several
policy proposals aimed at reducing the scope of government,
including cutting government spending by five percent, cutting
taxes, and reducing the number of regulations. They were asked if
each proposal would primarily hurt or primarily help the economy.
The survey then compared responses for these concrete proposals to
responses for whether the relatively abstract act of “reducing the
size of government” would primarily help or harm the economy.
Concrete policies that effectually reduce government’s scope
receive greater support than the proposal to reduce government’s
size. Cutting government spending receives the greatest support,
with 65 percent saying it would “primarily help” rather than harm
the economy, followed by cutting taxes (58%), reducing the number
of regulations (55%), and reducing government’s size (53%).
Intensity of support also reflects this pattern, with a quarter of
millennials saying that cutting government spending would help “a
lot,” compared to 14 percent who have a similar favorable intensity
for shrinking government.
In sum, cutting spending and taxes garners more support than
reducing government’s size. Offering explicit methods for how to
reduce the power and scope of government may better resonate among
millennials than just asserting the need to rein in “big
government.”
To learn more about millennials, check
out Reason-Rupe’s new report.
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