Sanders, Warren Compare Capitalists to Vampires, but Socialism Is What Really Sucks

At the Democratic presidential debates this week and as the campaign heats up in the months ahead, listen for the word “suck.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) has been using it frequently in connection with health care. In the first round of debates she said, “the insurance companies last year alone sucked $23 billion in profits out of the health care system.”

She also uses the term for those in the financial sector more broadly, beyond health insurance. Recently, Warren issued a plan to “rein in the financial industry so it stops sucking money out of the rest of the economy.”

“The private equity firms are like vampires—bleeding the company dry and walking away enriched even as the company succumbs,” Warren said.

This image of businessmen as bloodsuckers has a long and ugly history. Karl Marx used it: “Capital is dead labor, that vampire-like, only lives by sucking living labor, and lives the more, the more labor it sucks.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) has his own v-word derogatory nickname for capitalists. Earlier this month he tweeted, “We must ban private equity funds and Wall Street vulture funds from owning hospitals.”

In 2017, Sanders posted on Facebook, “Wall Street vulture funds should not be allowed to make huge profits off the misery of the Puerto Rican people while they are dealing with a humanitarian crisis.”

Vampire or vulture, the language from the presidential candidates gets picked up by people and then directed at particular investors. Earlier this month in Boston, Puerto Ricans rallied in the streets, according to a report by WBUR’s Simon Rios. They were singling out Seth Klarman and his Boston-based hedge fund Baupost. “You can hear them starting to chant in the background….The protesters are referring to these investors as vulture capitalists, making profit off of the bankrupt Puerto Rican economy,” Rios narrated for listeners of WBUR, a National Public Radio affiliate based at Boston University.

What’s the problem with this sort of language?

For starters, it’s more than a bit hypocritical. Sanders and Warren are both campaigning for huge tax increases on the private sector to fund bigger government. If anyone’s acting like a bloodsucking vampire or vulture, it’s them.

It’s also hypocritical in the sense that one line of Democratic attack against President Trump has been faulting him for coarsening the public discourse and for dehumanizing, insulting, and scapegoating vulnerable minority populations. Some people assert that it’s different to target a rich insurance company executive or hedge fund manager than it is to target a poor Mexican or Muslim immigrant. There may be some differences, but there are also some similarities. Those similarities aren’t particularly attractive. If the Democrats are going to be slinging around this sort of language, it erodes some of their standing to be critical of Trump’s rhetoric.

The language is potentially dangerous. Demonizing the investors or insurance company executives or depicting them as less than human could lead to violence against them. Similar language was deployed by communists and fascists in the 20th century, with deadly results.

It’s also logically flawed. Warren’s dichotomy between “the financial industry” and “the rest of the economy” is a false one. People in “the rest of the economy” have retirement money invested in the financial industry. Union pension funds and university endowments reap a share of those insurance company and hedge funds profits. Ordinary Americans benefit all the time from mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans that the financial industry makes possible. That Puerto Rican debt funded real projects on that island.

Warren complains that the financial industry is too large a share of the economy. Paring it back in the way Sanders and Warren propose, though, would require shifting some of its present functions, such as health insurance and even some banking functions, to government. The result could be a government that is too large a share of the economy. Such a set-up historically has been detrimental both to liberty and to economic growth. There’s a risk that if Warren and Sanders do get their way, the sucking sound will be of talent and capital fleeing America for other jurisdictions where they will be treated better.

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Bonds & Bullion Bid But Stocks Slide As Firms Slash Earnings Outlooks

A quiet day for sure but the trends remain – dollar and gold higher together, bond yields fading, and stocks clinging near record highs…

Powell better not let the world down!!

Chinese stocks trod water overnight…

UK’s FTSE exploded higher as the pound plunged, Italy underperformed in Europe but the rest of the majors were flat…

 

And a mixed bag in US stocks too with The Dow clinging to some semblance of positivity as Small Caps and Nasdaq underperformed…

 

FANG Stocks erased Friday’s gains…

 

It’s Beyond Meat’s earnings tonight – make or break time for shorts who are paying 144% borrow…

 

The S&P continues to dramatically outperform the broadest US equity index – not exactly what one would hope for in a broad-based re-acceleration in growth…

 

Treasuries were bid after Europe closed and ended lower in yields on the day (but traded in a very narrow range)…

 

30Y Yields erased the losses from Draghi’s disappointment…

 

The dollar rallied once again – nearing its highest since May 2017…

 

Cable was clubbed like a baby seal today as no-deal expectations ramp up…

 

Cryptos had a flash-crashy like move overnight but recovered from that – although they remain lower from Friday…

With Bitcoin holding back below $10,000…

 

Despite dollar gains, commodities managed gains with Crude and Copper leading but PMs rallying towards the US close…

 

Gold spiked up to pre-Draghi levels…

 

Oil was volatile intraday testing below $56 and up to $57…

 

Gold in Yuan jumped up to recent resistance…

 

And gold in Sterling is very close to a record high…

 

Finally, there’s this… While the S&P 500 is up 20% YTD, earnings expectations for the next 24 months has slumped…

As 60% of companies have cut Q3 EPS expectations in recent weeks…

Will traders sell the Fed news?

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Laws Banning “Impair[ing] the Functions of any Police … Operations”

Novak v. City of Parma, decided today by the Sixth Circuit (opinion by Judge Amul Thapar, joined by Judges Gilbert Merritt and Chad Readler), suggests such statutes may be unconstitutional, when applied to speech that supposedly “impair[s] the functions” of the police by leading people to call the police department:

[An Ohio] statute makes it a crime to “use any computer … or the internet so as to disrupt, interrupt, or impair the functions of any police … operations.” Ohio Rev. Code § 2909.04(B). To see how broad this statute reaches, consider an example. An activist tweets the following message: “The police are violating our rights #TakeAction #MakeYourVoiceHeard.” People in the community see the tweet and begin calling the police department to share their views. A small protest even forms in the town square. Police station employees spend time fielding the calls, and a couple of officers go down to monitor the protest.

Under the plain text of the Ohio statute, have these acts of civic engagement “interrupt[ed]” police operations? Taken at face value, the Ohio law seems to criminalize speech well in the heartland of First Amendment protection. This broad reach gives the police cover to retaliate against all kinds of speech under the banner of probable cause. Critical online comments, mail-in or phone bank campaigns, or even informational websites that incite others to “disrupt” or “interrupt” police operations could violate the law.

Where a statute gives police broad cover to find probable cause on speech alone, probable cause does little to disentangle retaliatory motives from legitimate ones. Thus, this case raises new questions under Nieves v. Bartlett [the recent decision limiting plaintiffs’ ability to sue for retaliatory arrests, when there was probable cause for the arrests -EV]. It may be that, based on the Supreme Court’s reasoning in that case and others, the general rule of requiring plaintiffs to prove the absence of probable cause should not apply here. We need not decide that now.

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Sanders, Warren Compare Capitalists to Vampires, but Socialism Is What Really Sucks

At the Democratic presidential debates this week and as the campaign heats up in the months ahead, listen for the word “suck.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) has been using it frequently in connection with health care. In the first round of debates she said, “the insurance companies last year alone sucked $23 billion in profits out of the health care system.”

She also uses the term for those in the financial sector more broadly, beyond health insurance. Recently, Warren issued a plan to “rein in the financial industry so it stops sucking money out of the rest of the economy.”

“The private equity firms are like vampires—bleeding the company dry and walking away enriched even as the company succumbs,” Warren said.

This image of businessmen as bloodsuckers has a long and ugly history. Karl Marx used it: “Capital is dead labor, that vampire-like, only lives by sucking living labor, and lives the more, the more labor it sucks.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) has his own v-word derogatory nickname for capitalists. Earlier this month he tweeted, “We must ban private equity funds and Wall Street vulture funds from owning hospitals.”

In 2017, Sanders posted on Facebook, “Wall Street vulture funds should not be allowed to make huge profits off the misery of the Puerto Rican people while they are dealing with a humanitarian crisis.”

Vampire or vulture, the language from the presidential candidates gets picked up by people and then directed at particular investors. Earlier this month in Boston, Puerto Ricans rallied in the streets, according to a report by WBUR’s Simon Rios. They were singling out Seth Klarman and his Boston-based hedge fund Baupost. “You can hear them starting to chant in the background….The protesters are referring to these investors as vulture capitalists, making profit off of the bankrupt Puerto Rican economy,” Rios narrated for listeners of WBUR, a National Public Radio affiliate based at Boston University.

What’s the problem with this sort of language?

For starters, it’s more than a bit hypocritical. Sanders and Warren are both campaigning for huge tax increases on the private sector to fund bigger government. If anyone’s acting like a bloodsucking vampire or vulture, it’s them.

It’s also hypocritical in the sense that one line of Democratic attack against President Trump has been faulting him for coarsening the public discourse and for dehumanizing, insulting, and scapegoating vulnerable minority populations. Some people assert that it’s different to target a rich insurance company executive or hedge fund manager than it is to target a poor Mexican or Muslim immigrant. There may be some differences, but there are also some similarities. Those similarities aren’t particularly attractive. If the Democrats are going to be slinging around this sort of language, it erodes some of their standing to be critical of Trump’s rhetoric.

The language is potentially dangerous. Demonizing the investors or insurance company executives or depicting them as less than human could lead to violence against them. Similar language was deployed by communists and fascists in the 20th century, with deadly results.

It’s also logically flawed. Warren’s dichotomy between “the financial industry” and “the rest of the economy” is a false one. People in “the rest of the economy” have retirement money invested in the financial industry. Union pension funds and university endowments reap a share of those insurance company and hedge funds profits. Ordinary Americans benefit all the time from mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans that the financial industry makes possible. That Puerto Rican debt funded real projects on that island.

Warren complains that the financial industry is too large a share of the economy. Paring it back in the way Sanders and Warren propose, though, would require shifting some of its present functions, such as health insurance and even some banking functions, to government. The result could be a government that is too large a share of the economy. Such a set-up historically has been detrimental both to liberty and to economic growth. There’s a risk that if Warren and Sanders do get their way, the sucking sound will be of talent and capital fleeing America for other jurisdictions where they will be treated better.

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The First Amendment and a Parody of a Police Department Web Page

From Novak v. City of Parma, decided today by the Sixth Circuit (opinion by Judge Amul Thapar, joined by Judges Gilbert Merritt and Chad Readler):

Apple pie, baseball, and the right to ridicule the government. Each holds an important place in American history and tradition. So thought Anthony Novak when he created a Facebook page to mock the Parma Police Department. He styled his page to look like the department’s official Facebook page. But the similarities ended there. Novak shared posts like an advertisement for a “Pedophile Reform event,” at which pedophiles would receive honorary police commissions.

Novak’s page delighted, disgusted, and confused. Not everyone understood it. But when it comes to parody, the law requires a reasonable reader standard, not a “most gullible person on Facebook” standard. The First Amendment does not depend on whether everyone is in on the joke. Neither is it bothered by public disapproval, whether tepid or red-hot….

This case comes to us after a motion to dismiss, so we take the facts as Novak alleges them and draw reasonable inferences in his favor. Novak created a “farcical Facebook account” designed to look like the police department’s official page. The page was up for twelve hours and published several posts. Among the posts was a recruitment advertisement that “strongly encourag[ed] minorities to not apply.” Novak also posted an apology from the department for “neglecting to inform the public about an armed white male who robbed a Subway sandwich shop,” while promising to bring to justice an “African American woman” who was loitering outside the Subway during the robbery.

The page was polarizing. Some of its about 100 followers thought it was “the funniest thing ever.” Others were angry. And yet others were confused, wondering whether this was the actual Parma police official Facebook page. A handful of people were so angry or confused that they called the police station. In all, the station received twelve minutes of calls. Others continued to enjoy the page, which soon “became a platform for a wide range of citizens to air their grievances about the Department.” The officers later testified that they worried the page would confuse the public and that the “likely result is that people would call.”

One of the page’s audiences—the Parma Police Department—did not find the page funny. Once the officers got wind of Novak’s page, they “all stopped what [they] were doing to take a look at it, and a couple of [them] tried to figure out who did it.” One officer said they “just wanted it down.” They took several steps to make that happen.

A Facebook battle ensued. First, the department posted a warning on its official Facebook page. The warning alerted the public to the fake page and assured them that the matter was “currently being investigated.” Then Novak reposted the exact same warning on his own page. He claims he did this to “deepen his satire.” For the same reason, Novak deleted “pedantic comments” on his page explaining that the page was fake, as these “clumsy explication[s]” only “belabored the joke.”

After that, the conflict moved offline and into the real world. Officer Kevin Riley assigned Officer Thomas Connor to the case and tasked him with finding out who ran the page. So Connor sent a letter to Facebook requesting that the page be shut down immediately. He also sent an email to a different Facebook representative asking that the page be taken down. The police also informed local news outlets of the investigation. The case of the fake police page even appeared on the nightly news. At that point, Novak decided to delete his creation. He had heard of the department’s investigation and was worried about the consequences.

Though Novak was done posting, the police department was not done investigating. They still wanted to find the person behind the laptop. So Connor subpoenaed records from Facebook. Riley directed Connor to go further and obtain a search warrant for Facebook. Novak alleges that Connor made several “material misrepresentations and omissions” to obtain that warrant. The warrant still issued, and Facebook disclosed that Novak was the one behind the fake account.

Once the department realized that Novak was the cyber culprit, Riley directed Connor to obtain two more warrants—one to search Novak’s apartment and one to arrest him. The warrants said that Novak unlawfully impaired the department’s functions, in violation of Ohio Rev. Code § 2909.04(B). Novak responds that, other than twelve minutes of phone calls to the department, the police department suffered no disruption to its functions. And Novak claims the officers were unaware of the twelve minutes of call time when they obtained the warrants. But, once again, the warrants still issued, and the department arrested Novak. The case went to trial, and Novak was acquitted.

Nova sued the City and Officers Rile and Connor; the Sixth Circuit held that most of his claims could proceed, and weren’t defeated by the police officers’ qualified immunity argument. Here’s the heart of the parody analysis:

[Parody] is protected speech. The question … is whether Novak’s page was a parody. The officers claim that his Facebook page was false and meant to mislead the public, not a parody. But they are wrong to think that we just look to a few confused people to determine if the page is protected parody.

Our nation’s long-held First Amendment protection for parody does not rise and fall with whether a few people are confused. Instead, we must apply a “reasonable reader” test. Speech that “could not reasonably have been interpreted as stating actual facts” is a parody, even if “patently offensive.” The test is not whether one person, or even ten people, or even one hundred people were confused by Novak’s page. Indeed, the genius of parody is that it comes close enough to reality to spark a moment of doubt in the reader’s mind before she realizes the joke….

And a parody need not spoil its own punchline by declaring itself a parody. “Parody serves its goals whether labeled or not, and there is no reason to require parody to state the obvious (or even the reasonably perceived).” Imagine if The Onion were required to disclaim that parodical headlines like the following are, in reality, false: Presidential Debate Sidetracked By Booker, De Blasio Arguing About Best Place In Lower Manhattan To Get Tapas, or, John Bolton Urges War Against the Sun After Uncovering Evidence It Has Nuclear Capabilities. The law of parody does not require us to strain credulity so far. And that is not because everyone always understands the joke.

Instead, the test for parody is whether a reasonable reader would have seen Novak’s Facebook page and concluded that the posts stated “actual facts.” Our nation boasts a long history of protecting parody and satire. “[F]rom the early cartoon portraying George Washington as an ass down to the present day, … satirical cartoons have played a prominent role in public and political debate.” And parody, like all protected speech, need not be high-minded or respectful to find safe haven under the First Amendment. “One of the prerogatives of American citizenship is the right to criticize public men and measures—and that means not only informed and responsible criticism but the freedom to speak foolishly and without moderation.” “The art of the cartoonist is often not reasoned or evenhanded, but slashing and one-sided.” We uphold this right, even where parody shocks us, because “[o]ur trust in the good sense of the people on deliberate reflection goes deep.”

Whether Novak’s page was a protected parody is a question of fact that we cannot answer at this stage. [Note that Novak wasn’t asking for summary judgment on the grounds that any reasonable jury would have concluded that the speech was a parody; rather, defendants were arguing that the speech was, as a matter of law, not protected parody.-EV] Instead, the jury will have to answer that question. At this stage, though, Novak has alleged enough facts that a reasonable jury could find that his page was a parody.

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Citi To Fire Hundreds Of Traders As Revenue Tumbles

It’s not just the melting ice cube known as Deutsche Bank that that is laying off recession-level numbers of traders: according to Bloomberg, Citigroup is also preparing hundreds of job cuts at its slumping trading division as more of the world’s largest firms respond to dormant clients and the rise of the robots with across the board layoffs.

According to the report, Citi – which plans to slash jobs across both its fixed-income and stock trading business over the course of 2019 – will let go at least 100 jobs in its equities unit, or almost 10% of that division.

The mass terminations are not a surprise in light of the chronic decline in Wall Street trading revenues as numerous clients simply refuse to allocate capital to stocks at current levels and pursue the S&P bubble beyond 3,000, certain it’s only a matter of time before the market crashes. As we noted two weeks ago when the big moneycenter banks reported Q2 earnings, the biggest Wall Street banks are facing an identity crisis, pressured by the lowest first-half trading revenue in more than a decade as they contend with reticent clients spooked by a global trade war even as volatility in asset prices hovering around record lows. In other words, despite near perfect trading conditions, bank trading revenues are plunging. One can only imagine what happens if and when trading conditions are even modestly “impaired.”

According to Bloomberg, Citi’s revenue from equity trading tumbled 17% to $1.6 billion for the first half of 2019, driving a 5% drop in total trading. That was lowest equity total among major U.S. firms, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. 

Meanwhile, Citigroup executives said this month they would continue to cut costs in the second half of the year after trimming more than analysts expected last quarter.

“We’re going to do everything within our power” to meet a goal of a 12% return on tangible equity this year, CEO Mike Corbat said after the bank announced earnings on July 15.

Citi joins Deutsche Bank, which made the biggest move earlier this month, when the firm announced it was exiting all of equities trading as part of restructuring that included 18,000 job cuts. Other major banks in Europe, including HSBC Holdings Plc and Societe Generale SA, have also announced the layoffs of hundreds of workers in an atmosphere that may be the gloomiest since the financial crisis, yet the S&P is withing spitting distance of new all time highs.

Ironically, in an environment of already depressed liquidity, these layoffs will result in even less prop and flow trading, leading to even lower liquidity, even more accentuated and sharp moves when volatility does spike, resulting in even greater trading losses during the next market correction or bear market, assuring even greater layoffs next time round, as the world finally realizes what we have been saying for the past decade: the market is broken, and between the Fed and algos propping it up, there is simply no need for human traders any more, especially now that Passive investing will overtake Active

… in just over three years, assuring that carbon-based traders are now a threatened species.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2SMtUsA Tyler Durden

The First Amendment and a Parody of a Police Department Web Page

From Novak v. City of Parma, decided today by the Sixth Circuit (opinion by Judge Amul Thapar, joined by Judges Gilbert Merritt and Chad Readler):

Apple pie, baseball, and the right to ridicule the government. Each holds an important place in American history and tradition. So thought Anthony Novak when he created a Facebook page to mock the Parma Police Department. He styled his page to look like the department’s official Facebook page. But the similarities ended there. Novak shared posts like an advertisement for a “Pedophile Reform event,” at which pedophiles would receive honorary police commissions.

Novak’s page delighted, disgusted, and confused. Not everyone understood it. But when it comes to parody, the law requires a reasonable reader standard, not a “most gullible person on Facebook” standard. The First Amendment does not depend on whether everyone is in on the joke. Neither is it bothered by public disapproval, whether tepid or red-hot….

This case comes to us after a motion to dismiss, so we take the facts as Novak alleges them and draw reasonable inferences in his favor. Novak created a “farcical Facebook account” designed to look like the police department’s official page. The page was up for twelve hours and published several posts. Among the posts was a recruitment advertisement that “strongly encourag[ed] minorities to not apply.” Novak also posted an apology from the department for “neglecting to inform the public about an armed white male who robbed a Subway sandwich shop,” while promising to bring to justice an “African American woman” who was loitering outside the Subway during the robbery.

The page was polarizing. Some of its about 100 followers thought it was “the funniest thing ever.” Others were angry. And yet others were confused, wondering whether this was the actual Parma police official Facebook page. A handful of people were so angry or confused that they called the police station. In all, the station received twelve minutes of calls. Others continued to enjoy the page, which soon “became a platform for a wide range of citizens to air their grievances about the Department.” The officers later testified that they worried the page would confuse the public and that the “likely result is that people would call.”

One of the page’s audiences—the Parma Police Department—did not find the page funny. Once the officers got wind of Novak’s page, they “all stopped what [they] were doing to take a look at it, and a couple of [them] tried to figure out who did it.” One officer said they “just wanted it down.” They took several steps to make that happen.

A Facebook battle ensued. First, the department posted a warning on its official Facebook page. The warning alerted the public to the fake page and assured them that the matter was “currently being investigated.” Then Novak reposted the exact same warning on his own page. He claims he did this to “deepen his satire.” For the same reason, Novak deleted “pedantic comments” on his page explaining that the page was fake, as these “clumsy explication[s]” only “belabored the joke.”

After that, the conflict moved offline and into the real world. Officer Kevin Riley assigned Officer Thomas Connor to the case and tasked him with finding out who ran the page. So Connor sent a letter to Facebook requesting that the page be shut down immediately. He also sent an email to a different Facebook representative asking that the page be taken down. The police also informed local news outlets of the investigation. The case of the fake police page even appeared on the nightly news. At that point, Novak decided to delete his creation. He had heard of the department’s investigation and was worried about the consequences.

Though Novak was done posting, the police department was not done investigating. They still wanted to find the person behind the laptop. So Connor subpoenaed records from Facebook. Riley directed Connor to go further and obtain a search warrant for Facebook. Novak alleges that Connor made several “material misrepresentations and omissions” to obtain that warrant. The warrant still issued, and Facebook disclosed that Novak was the one behind the fake account.

Once the department realized that Novak was the cyber culprit, Riley directed Connor to obtain two more warrants—one to search Novak’s apartment and one to arrest him. The warrants said that Novak unlawfully impaired the department’s functions, in violation of Ohio Rev. Code § 2909.04(B). Novak responds that, other than twelve minutes of phone calls to the department, the police department suffered no disruption to its functions. And Novak claims the officers were unaware of the twelve minutes of call time when they obtained the warrants. But, once again, the warrants still issued, and the department arrested Novak. The case went to trial, and Novak was acquitted.

Nova sued the City and Officers Rile and Connor; the Sixth Circuit held that most of his claims could proceed, and weren’t defeated by the police officers’ qualified immunity argument. Here’s the heart of the parody analysis:

[Parody] is protected speech. The question … is whether Novak’s page was a parody. The officers claim that his Facebook page was false and meant to mislead the public, not a parody. But they are wrong to think that we just look to a few confused people to determine if the page is protected parody.

Our nation’s long-held First Amendment protection for parody does not rise and fall with whether a few people are confused. Instead, we must apply a “reasonable reader” test. Speech that “could not reasonably have been interpreted as stating actual facts” is a parody, even if “patently offensive.” The test is not whether one person, or even ten people, or even one hundred people were confused by Novak’s page. Indeed, the genius of parody is that it comes close enough to reality to spark a moment of doubt in the reader’s mind before she realizes the joke….

And a parody need not spoil its own punchline by declaring itself a parody. “Parody serves its goals whether labeled or not, and there is no reason to require parody to state the obvious (or even the reasonably perceived).” Imagine if The Onion were required to disclaim that parodical headlines like the following are, in reality, false: Presidential Debate Sidetracked By Booker, De Blasio Arguing About Best Place In Lower Manhattan To Get Tapas, or, John Bolton Urges War Against the Sun After Uncovering Evidence It Has Nuclear Capabilities. The law of parody does not require us to strain credulity so far. And that is not because everyone always understands the joke.

Instead, the test for parody is whether a reasonable reader would have seen Novak’s Facebook page and concluded that the posts stated “actual facts.” Our nation boasts a long history of protecting parody and satire. “[F]rom the early cartoon portraying George Washington as an ass down to the present day, … satirical cartoons have played a prominent role in public and political debate.” And parody, like all protected speech, need not be high-minded or respectful to find safe haven under the First Amendment. “One of the prerogatives of American citizenship is the right to criticize public men and measures—and that means not only informed and responsible criticism but the freedom to speak foolishly and without moderation.” “The art of the cartoonist is often not reasoned or evenhanded, but slashing and one-sided.” We uphold this right, even where parody shocks us, because “[o]ur trust in the good sense of the people on deliberate reflection goes deep.”

Whether Novak’s page was a protected parody is a question of fact that we cannot answer at this stage. [Note that Novak wasn’t asking for summary judgment on the grounds that any reasonable jury would have concluded that the speech was a parody; rather, defendants were arguing that the speech was, as a matter of law, not protected parody.-EV] Instead, the jury will have to answer that question. At this stage, though, Novak has alleged enough facts that a reasonable jury could find that his page was a parody.

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Kamala Harris’ New Health Care Plan, Like Her Old Health Care Plan, Is a Cynical, Muddled Mess

Since the launch of her presidential campaign, it has been almost impossible to determine what Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) believes about health care policy. Over the last seven months, she has said that she supports Bernie Sanders’ single-payer plan, and also that she opposes parts of it, that she would eliminate all private insurance, and also that perhaps she wouldn’t, and then again that she would, but that actually she misheard the question and in fact wouldn’t eliminate private coverage, because she would allow for supplemental insurance for cosmetic procedures, a type of insurance that does not exist.

There have always been two possible reasons for Harris’ health policy inconsistencies. The first is that she had trouble explaining the nuances of her plans. Given her talents as a speaker and political communicator, that seems unlikely. The second, and more plausible, is that she simply didn’t care about the particulars and was saying what she thought people wanted to hear, whether or not it added up to a coherent or defensible policy.

This morning, Harris released a plan designed to reconcile her health policy contradictions. It provides further evidence for the latter explanation. Although it resolves some surface-level problems with her messaging, as policy it is nearly as muddled and cynical as what came before.

Harris has consistently struggled to describe how she would handle private health insurance. In January, she said she supports the Sanders Medicare for All plan, which would outlaw most private health insurance in four years. Health insurance, she said, was a pain to deal with. “Let’s eliminate all of that,” she said. “Let’s move on.” The following day, facing a backlash, she hedged, saying that while she would support eliminating private health she would also back other options. Then, at last month’s Democratic primary debate, she raised her hand to signal an answer of yes about eliminating private plans; the following day, she backtracked again, saying she’d misunderstood the question.

Her new plan is thus an attempt to articulate a policy that retroactively makes sense of her previous statements. It would allow private insurance carriers to compete to provide Medicare-approved plans within the structure of Medicare. It thus allows her to support a program that nominally provides for universal Medicare while also allowing some private coverage to exist.

But Harris would still eliminate the majority of private coverage as we know it. Employer-sponsored health care plans, which currently cover more than 150 million Americans, would be allowed only if they were certified as Medicare plans. That means many of today’s plans would go away. So would private plans bought through Obamacare’s exchanges. If you like your plan, too bad: You can’t keep it.

The core political problem for Medicare for All is that a large number of Americans currently have employer-sponsored health plans that they like, and Medicare for All would eliminate many of those plans and force those Americans into government-run insurance. Harris’ new plan doesn’t really change this. It would still disrupt coverage for millions of people. In other words, it resolves the contradictions in her messaging, but not the deeper policy issues.

Under the Harris plan, the private health coverage that would remain would be so heavily regulated as to be effectively government-run, and the plan would still require a complex transition from the current employer-based system to one where the government is responsible for financing most health care.

Harris attempts to manage transition worries by providing for a 10-year transition, in contrast to the four-year changeover called for by the Sanders plan. But this poses different problems: It would mean that even if Harris won two presidential terms, she would not oversee the final implementation of the plan, exposing it to political upheaval. (Imagine if Obamacare had been timed to go into effect after Obama’s second term.) The longer timeline could also result in the shuttering of some of today’s insurance carriers before the 10-year window is up, pushing people into the new, government-provided plans before the transition is complete, which makes her promise that “no one will lose access to insurance during a transition” rather dicey.

The 10-year transition also allows her to hide the true cost of the plan. The Congressional Budget Office, which provides cost estimates for legislation, typically estimates the price of only the first 10 years of any given piece of legislation, meaning that the fully implemented program would not be part of the cost estimate.

Harris, tellingly, has not provided any cost estimate of her own, nor has she specified how it would pay providers, a critical issue for determining a price tag. Relying on Medicare rates would reduce the total price tag of the legislation, but would also subject hospitals and doctors to large pay cuts that would almost certainly result in service reductions.

Nor has Harris specified a way to pay for her plan. Instead, she continues to pretend she can finance it without new taxes or fees on the broad middle class, a position that not even Bernie Sanders holds. Indeed, Harris specifically rejects Sanders’ proposal for a 4 percent “premium” on households making more than $29,000 annually, reserving that fee for families with incomes over $100,000, and further adjustments for high-cost areas. No country that provides health care benefits on the level that Harris envisions has done so without higher middle-class taxes. Harris is describing a system that does not exist.  

With the second series of Democratic presidential debates looming, it was clear that Harris had a health care problem. Even liberals were criticizing her incoherence on the issue. But rather than honestly reckon with the contradictions of her previous statements and the trade-offs inherent in any health policy proposal, Harris has merely attempted to paper over those contradictions with yet another poorly-thought-out, detail-light plan designed to allow her to make promises she cannot possibly keep. Her new plan is pitched as a way of answering tough questions, but it’s just another way of dodging them. 

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Why Is What Was Once-Affordable-To-Many Now Only-Affordable-To-The-Wealthy?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

With these speculative and risk management skills accessible only to the wealthy, no wonder only the wealthy have gained purchasing power in the 21st century.

Let’s start with an excerpt from a recent personal account by the insightful energy/systems analyst Ugo Bardi, who is Italian but writes his blog Cassandra’s Legacy in English: Becoming Poor in Italy. The Effects of the Twilight of the Age of Oil.

“I am not poor. As a middle class, state employee in Italy, I am probably richer than some 90% of the people living on this planet. But wealth and poverty are mainly relative perceptions and the feeling I have is that I am becoming poorer every year, just like the majority of Italians, nowadays.

I know that the various economic indexes say that we are not becoming poorer and that, worldwide, the GDP keeps growing, even in Italy it sort of restarted growing after a period of decline. But something must be wrong with those indexes because we are becoming poorer. It is unmistakable, GDP or not. To explain that, let me tell you the story of the house that my father and my mother built in the 1960s and how I am now forced to leave it because I can’t just afford it anymore.

Back in the 1950s and 1960s, Italy was going through what was called the “Economic Miracle” at the time. After the disaster of the war, the age of cheap oil had created a booming economy everywhere in the world. In Italy, people enjoyed a wealth that never ever had been seen or even imagined before. Private cars, health care for everybody, vacations at the seaside, the real possibility for most Italians to own a house, and more.

My father and my mother were both high school teachers. They could supplement their salary with their work as architects and by giving private lessons, but surely they were typical middle-class people. Nevertheless, in the 1960s, they could afford the home of their dreams. Large, a true mansion, it was more than 300 square meters, with an ample living room, terraces, a patio, and a big garden.

My parents lived in that house for some 50 years and they both got old and died in there. Then, I inherited it in 2014. As you can imagine, a house that had been inhabited for some years by old people with health problems was not in the best condition.

we started doing just that. But, after a couple of years, we looked into each other’s eyes and we said, ‘this will never work.’

We had spent enough money to make a significant dent in our finances but the effect was barely visible: the house was just too big. To that, you must add the cost of heating and air conditioning of such a large space: in the 1960s, there was no need for air conditioning in Florence, now it is vital to have it. Also, the cost of transportation is a killer. In an American style suburb, you have to rely on private cars and, in the 1960s, it seemed normal to do that. But not anymore: cars have become awfully expensive, traffic jams are everywhere, a disaster. Ah…. and I forgot about taxes: that too is rapidly becoming an impossible burden.

And so we decided to sell the house. We discovered that the value of these suburban mansions had plummeted considerably during the past years, but it was still possible to find buyers.

What’s most impressive is how things changed in 50 years. Theoretically, as a university teacher, my salary is higher than that of my parents, who were both high school teachers. My wife, too, has a pretty decent salary. But there is no way that we could even have dreamed to build or buy the kind of house that I inherited from my parents.

Something has changed and the change is deep in the very fabric of the Italian society. And the change has a name: it is the twilight of the age of oil. Wealth and energy are two faces of the same medal: with less net energy available, what Italians could afford 50 years ago, they can’t afford anymore.

But saying that depletion is at the basis of our troubles is politically incorrect and unspeakable in the public debate. So, most Italians don’t understand the reasons for what’s going on. They only perceive that their life is becoming harder and harder, despite what they are being told on TV.”

To resource depletion I would add lower returns on both capital and labor–what is known as diminishing returns: the same investment yields less output.

This decay of return on investment manifests as an S-Curve, which is a constant reference point in my work: an investment that earns a large output at first yields less and less, until the yield (output) stagnates and then declines. Increasing the investment no longer reverses the decline, and often accelerates the decline into a crash.

The 1960s “Economic Miracle” (called Les Trente Glorieuses in France, the thirty years of growth from 1945 to 1975) wasn’t just the result of cheap oil/fuel; credit/investment-starved economies generated outsized returns as capital investments expanded production and productivity, raising wages which then increased consumption and production in a self-reinforcing feedback loop.

Labor was relatively cheap, and capital investments in equipment, social investments in infrastructure and human capital investments in education all boosted the productivity of labor while boosting wages and consumption.

Compare this to the present: ordinary financial capital earns 2% at best and zero or even less than zero in developed economies. Owners of capital have a hard time finding any high-yield investment that isn’t a speculative gamble based on financialized leverage or debt.

This is why corporations are pouring trillions of dollars of capital into stock buybacks that generate no new goods and services: they can’t find any productive use for the capital, so they use buybacks to boost the value of their shares.

Professor Bardi labors in higher education. Back when university credentials were relatively scarce, and higher education actually boosted the productivity of the graduates, the labor of professors generated substantial economic value.

Now that college diplomas have lost their scarcity value, and developed-world work forces are over-credentialed, the value of higher education credentials and those who issue them has declined accordingly. In a global economy with an abundance of over-credentialed workers, the claim that more education creates more value is no longer valid.

If there is an oversupply of chemistry graduates, graduating another 10,000 chemistry majors doesn’t boost productivity at all; rather, it misallocated vast amounts of financial and human capital.

The net result is that the return on ordinary capital and labor, even that of college professors, has declined while the cost structure of increasingly complex societies has soared.

If we consider higher resource costs and higher costs of systemic complexity, and declining returns on capital and labor as inputs, we can see that the only possible output of such a system is declining purchasing power, which we experience as becoming poorer: our labor buys less and our savings earn next to nothing unless we have the specialized knowledge and risk appetite to engage in speculative gambles.

With these speculative and risk management skills accessible only to the wealthy, no wonder only the wealthy have gained purchasing power in the 21st century. The result is only the wealthy can afford what was once affordable to the middle class.

The decline in the value of conventional labor and purchasing power is visible in this chart of labor’s share of the national income.

Ownership of speculative capital is concentrated in the top 5% of households, guaranteeing that speculative gains from asset bubbles are also concentrated in the top 5%– roughly 6 million households, with the majority of the gains concentrated in the top few hundred thousand households.

Outsized gains are now only available to the few with the skills and experience required to gamble high-risk assets successfully, and this is becoming more difficult; even the professional class of money managers are increasingly unable to beat passive index funds.

The top 5% are riding high now that central banks have inflated stupendous bubbles in stocks, housing and other assets, but these gains are speculative.These gains are often viewed as permanent entitlements (i.e. bubbles never deflate), but if history is any guide, those holding speculative gains as if they were a form of savings are in for a rude awakening in the next few years.

*  *  *

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Kamala Harris’ New Health Care Plan, Like Her Old Health Care Plan, Is a Cynical, Muddled Mess

Since the launch of her presidential campaign, it has been almost impossible to determine what Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) believes about health care policy. Over the last seven months, she has said that she supports Bernie Sanders’ single-payer plan, and also that she opposes parts of it, that she would eliminate all private insurance, and also that perhaps she wouldn’t, and then again that she would, but that actually she misheard the question and in fact wouldn’t eliminate private coverage, because she would allow for supplemental insurance for cosmetic procedures, a type of insurance that does not exist.

There have always been two possible reasons for Harris’ health policy inconsistencies. The first is that she had trouble explaining the nuances of her plans. Given her talents as a speaker and political communicator, that seems unlikely. The second, and more plausible, is that she simply didn’t care about the particulars and was saying what she thought people wanted to hear, whether or not it added up to a coherent or defensible policy.

This morning, Harris released a plan designed to reconcile her health policy contradictions. It provides further evidence for the latter explanation. Although it resolves some surface-level problems with her messaging, as policy it is nearly as muddled and cynical as what came before.

Harris has consistently struggled to describe how she would handle private health insurance. In January, she said she supports the Sanders Medicare for All plan, which would outlaw most private health insurance in four years. Health insurance, she said, was a pain to deal with. “Let’s eliminate all of that,” she said. “Let’s move on.” The following day, facing a backlash, she hedged, saying that while she would support eliminating private health she would also back other options. Then, at last month’s Democratic primary debate, she raised her hand to signal an answer of yes about eliminating private plans; the following day, she backtracked again, saying she’d misunderstood the question.

Her new plan is thus an attempt to articulate a policy that retroactively makes sense of her previous statements. It would allow private insurance carriers to compete to provide Medicare-approved plans within the structure of Medicare. It thus allows her to support a program that nominally provides for universal Medicare while also allowing some private coverage to exist.

But Harris would still eliminate the majority of private coverage as we know it. Employer-sponsored health care plans, which currently cover more than 150 million Americans, would be allowed only if they were certified as Medicare plans. That means many of today’s plans would go away. So would private plans bought through Obamacare’s exchanges. If you like your plan, too bad: You can’t keep it.

The core political problem for Medicare for All is that a large number of Americans currently have employer-sponsored health plans that they like, and Medicare for All would eliminate many of those plans and force those Americans into government-run insurance. Harris’ new plan doesn’t really change this. It would still disrupt coverage for millions of people. In other words, it resolves the contradictions in her messaging, but not the deeper policy issues.

Under the Harris plan, the private health coverage that would remain would be so heavily regulated as to be effectively government-run, and the plan would still require a complex transition from the current employer-based system to one where the government is responsible for financing most health care.

Harris attempts to manage transition worries by providing for a 10-year transition, in contrast to the four-year changeover called for by the Sanders plan. But this poses different problems: It would mean that even if Harris won two presidential terms, she would not oversee the final implementation of the plan, exposing it to political upheaval. (Imagine if Obamacare had been timed to go into effect after Obama’s second term.) The longer timeline could also result in the shuttering of some of today’s insurance carriers before the 10-year window is up, pushing people into the new, government-provided plans before the transition is complete, which makes her promise that “no one will lose access to insurance during a transition” rather dicey.

The 10-year transition also allows her to hide the true cost of the plan. The Congressional Budget Office, which provides cost estimates for legislation, typically estimates the price of only the first 10 years of any given piece of legislation, meaning that the fully implemented program would not be part of the cost estimate.

Harris, tellingly, has not provided any cost estimate of her own, nor has she specified how it would pay providers, a critical issue for determining a price tag. Relying on Medicare rates would reduce the total price tag of the legislation, but would also subject hospitals and doctors to large pay cuts that would almost certainly result in service reductions.

Nor has Harris specified a way to pay for her plan. Instead, she continues to pretend she can finance it without new taxes or fees on the broad middle class, a position that not even Bernie Sanders holds. Indeed, Harris specifically rejects Sanders’ proposal for a 4 percent “premium” on households making more than $29,000 annually, reserving that fee for families with incomes over $100,000, and further adjustments for high-cost areas. No country that provides health care benefits on the level that Harris envisions has done so without higher middle-class taxes. Harris is describing a system that does not exist.  

With the second series of Democratic presidential debates looming, it was clear that Harris had a health care problem. Even liberals were criticizing her incoherence on the issue. But rather than honestly reckon with the contradictions of her previous statements and the trade-offs inherent in any health policy proposal, Harris has merely attempted to paper over those contradictions with yet another poorly-thought-out, detail-light plan designed to allow her to make promises she cannot possibly keep. Her new plan is pitched as a way of answering tough questions, but it’s just another way of dodging them. 

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