Month: July 2019

One Trader Dares To Question The Official Narrative

Ranges have been small. Asset price-wise, nothing especially untoward has happened. But, as former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow notes, it all feels remarkably sloppy.

Via Bloomberg,

The fact that it is month-end and the big news of the day won’t happen until the U.S. afternoon sets things up to have a skittishness that will drive people trying to follow the ins and outs of the day’s activity positively to distraction.

To make matters worse, we have two sets of traders operating uncomfortably beside each other.

  • Some that will not change their views short of some — unlikely — major event that can’t be planned for anyway.

  • And the others, who seem to be having the worst time holding onto anything. But more interestingly, they seem to change what they purport to be their big picture outlook based on the latest news and market gyration.

We are operating in an unusually uncertain world, but they seem to have taken it to the extreme.

The Australian dollar has had a rough patch. And for understandable reasons. Disappointing numbers at home. Not a great external environment. A dovish central bank. But after eight straight down days, it fell to a support zone that has meant something for the last three months. Frankly, it was due for a bounce. It got the excuse by a small beat from CPI. Fair enough and hardly a surprise.

Yet along with the modest bounce in the currency came a serious repricing of the likelihood of near-term interest-rate cuts. Short-dated OIS made a surprisingly swift move. That was simply too much from a statistically insignificant deviation from expectations. Especially with the rest of the newsflow of the day. And, to be fair, three-year yields were only fooled for a few hours.

Nevertheless, all eyes will now be on whether or not we close above Thursday’s high for the next technical sign to run with.

It did leave me wondering, however, how little it might take for traders to begin questioning the narrative about how the whole world is barreling toward lower official rates. Try to resist the temptation. My working assumption has to be that we very much are.

But for trading purposes, as the dog days of August are set to begin, it really does put a premium on how the Fed Chair explains whatever they end up deciding to do. This is not the time of year where short and medium-term players are apt to over-think things. For my money, the discussion around the balance sheet is an even bigger deal than it is being given credit. Although, how hard he hits the “U.S. is doing great” story line should also matter.

Global equity markets know what they want to hear. And they want simple and direct assurances that they will receive the rate support they have come to expect and demand. It’s a clear worldwide phenomenon. Just consider the blah reaction to this week’s Chinese Politburo announcement of economic plans for the second half of the year. You can clearly witness the sapping of momentum higher every time traders don’t receive comfort in the form they most want.

When it happens, you can almost imagine them telling the central bankers to go back and try again. Or face the consequences that we know they don’t want.

Looking at the charts, it seems odd to say after such a good year-to-date run that many indexes look to be at some sort of decision point. Now we’ll see how the next chapter of the story plays out.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2OtozI8 Tyler Durden

WTI Extends Gains After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

Oil prices extended gains overnight off the back of API inventory data and a drop in Libya production

“I expect draws in crude stockpiles, but not as big as we’ve seen in the last few weeks,” says Mark L Waggoner, president at commodity brokerage Excel Futures.

“Refinery run rates will be ramping up a bit because we’re still in the middle of summer and driving season”

API

  • Crude -6.024mm (-2.75mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.449mm

  • Gasoline -3.135mm

  • Distillates -890k

DOE

  • Crude -8.50mm (-3.25mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.533mm

  • Gasoline -1.791mm

  • Distillates -894k

Crude inventories have fallen – significantly – for seven straight weeks, but last week saw stocks dropping across the entire energy complex as Barry-driven shut-ins came back online.

After the prior week’s collapse in crude production (thanks to Storm Barry shut-ins), production rebounded as expected…

WTI hovered around $58.50 ahead of the DOE print and extended gains after the big draws…

Finally, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza says:

It’s surprising how well supported oil benchmarks are, considering much of the bullishness is engineered by tensions in the Persian Gulf and risk of bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz and despite resilient U.S. output volume.

Weaker petroleum demand is the overriding issue, yet recent refined product data seems to discount that concern, while expectations for interest-rate cuts supporting risk assets have reemerged as an investment narrative. Infrastructure additions expected in 2H should also support benchmarks.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2K5p4UD Tyler Durden

Billionaire Indian Coffee Tycoon’s Body Found After Mysterious Disappearance

Less than 48 hours after his disappearance under mysterious circumstances, Indian billionaire V.G. Siddhartha and founder of Starbucks’ biggest regional rival, the Cafe Coffee Day chain, has been found dead in a southwest India district near his home.

Police reportedly suspect suicide, especially given he went missing Monday night while walking across a bridge days after penning an “apology letter”, according to his chauffeur, who says he was given the unusual request to drop off Siddhartha at the bridge. His body was found Wednesday in the Netravathi river in Karnataka state.

Image source: Financial Times

The letter, written and signed by Siddhartha and dated July 27, was released by his company on Tuesday and said he was facing “tremendous pressure” from lenders that led to him “succumbing to the situation.”

“I would like to say I gave it my all,” the letter says. “I am very sorry to let down all the people that put their trust in me.” He further urged for the company to continue under new management, and expressed further, “I am solely responsible for all mistakes. Every financial transaction is my responsibility.”

Coffee Day shares had slumped 20% as the missing person case went public, according to a company filing. The holding company owns several businesses, including Cafe Coffee Day, which operates nearly 1,700 cafes around India.

The 59-year old had owned 33% of Coffee Day Enterprises, with his wife and family-owned entities totaling another 21%. According to Bloomberg, Siddhartha founded the coffee chain and opened cafes around the country more than a decade before Starbucks started expanding into India. The roots of Siddhartha’s company can be traced back to the IT hub of Bengaluru in 1996.

The company’s leadership team has promised to “ensure continuity of business,” a statement said prior to Siddhartha’s death being confirmed.

V.G. Siddharthanear was last seen Monday near Ullal Bridge across the Netravati river in Karnataka’s Mangaluru.

Coffee Day went public in 2015, nearly two decades after opening its first cafe in Bengaluru. A unit of KKR owns 6.07% of the company, while Nandan Nilekani, co-founder of Infosys Ltd., has a 2.69% stake. According to CNN:

Coffee Day Enterprises — the chain’s parent company — issued a statement expressing its condolences to Siddhartha’s family and hailing his “matchless energy, vision and business acumen.” 

The fund sold 4.25% of its about 10.3% stake last February and haven’t sold any shares before or since, the spokesman said.

Given Siddhartha’s very visible public status as a coffee tycoon and billionaire, investigators are unlikely to leave any stone unturned with a hasty suicide ruling. One international report, citing local Indian sources, suggests there are already significant holes in the case: 

Tax authorities, however, have called the authenticity of the signature into doubt – even as police sources insist the letter was given to them by members of Siddhartha’s immediate family and came from his assistant. A senior official pledged to have the letter examined by the Forensic Science Laboratory to be sure of its authenticity.

Siddhartha’s letter, which appears intended as a suicide note, said further that he “can help repay everybody” given his remaining assets. 

File photo: Cafe Coffee Day founder and CEO V.G. Siddhartha

“My intention was never to cheat or mislead anybody, I have failed as an entrepreneur,” he added. “I hope someday you will understand, forgive and pardon me.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZlFsWn Tyler Durden

Elizabeth Warren Hates Your Cheap Foreign-Made Electric Guitar

The cheapest new Stratocaster guitar you can buy from Fender’s home factory in Corona, California, costs $1,099. The cheapest Stratocaster you can buy made in Fender’s plant in Ensenada, Mexico costs $499. Too much? The cheapest Stratocaster you can buy from Fender’s Squier factory in Indonesia costs $349.99, and the cheapest one you can buy from Fender’s Squier Affinity factory in China is $199. There are differences across the range in the woodwork, the electronics, and the metal parts, but the consensus among even the snobbiest gear nerds is that Fender guitars of every price can play remarkably well out of the box.

I thought about the Ensenada factory last night while listening to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) decry Mexican factories during the Democratic primary debate in Detroit. 

“You know, for decades, we have had a trade policy that has been written by giant multinational corporations to help giant multinational corporations,” she said. “They have no loyalty to America. They have no patriotism. If they can save a nickel by moving a job to Mexico, they’ll do it in a heartbeat. If they can continue a polluting plant by moving it to Vietnam, they’ll do it in a heartbeat….I have put out a new comprehensive plan that says we’re not going to do it that way.”

While Fender is an iconic American company whose instruments played a major role in developing some of America’s most iconic musicians—Jimi Hendrix, Dick Dale, Chrissie Hynde, Eddie Hazel, Stevie Ray Vaughan, Merle Haggard, Albert Collins, Bonnie Raitt—it is, in fact, exactly the kind of company Warren decried as having no loyalty and no patriotism because it is a “multinational corporation” that uses foreign factory labor to make money. And thank God for that, because if making guitars outside America was not a profitable venture for Fender, their guitars would not be affordable to the vast majority of Americans who play. 

No mass-market American guitar company exclusively sells American-made guitars because American musicians can’t and won’t pay for them. “Regulations and the general cost of doing business make it nearly impossible to do an affordable ‘working man’s’ guitar” in California, Schecter Guitar Research President Michael Ciravolo said in a 2017 interview. While Schecter does manufacture higher-end guitars in California, “95 percent of our artists play our Korean-built Diamond Series guitars. These are guitars that most players can afford and walk into any store around the world and get the EXACT guitar or bass that Syn Gates or Nikki Sixx play.”

Gibson, America’s other iconic electric guitar powerhouse and the biggest American market share owner after Fender, makes its Epiphone guitars in Qingdao, China. The same foreign factory model is used by the other guitar brands Fender owns, and all of America’s smaller mass-market electric guitar companies. From PRS to Ernie Ball Music Man, to G&L, Schecter, and ESP. Every last one uses overseas factories to offer tiered pricing and “save a nickel,” as Warren would say. As a result, the parents of a teenage St. Vincent fan who can’t afford her American-made signature model from Ernie Ball Music Man, which retails for $2,249, might be able to swing the $539 St. Vincent model expertly crafted in Indonesia by the company’s Sterling subsidiary. Still too much? The used market for instruments made overseas is a buyer’s market, which means American musicians who can’t afford a brand new $539 Sterling St. Vincent can find it used for a hundred (or more!) less. 

Consider, again, that $1,099 is the price of Fender’s cheapest American Strat, and that’s before sales tax. If the company were to shift all of its production capacity back to the U.S., it would likely employ many fewer people than it does now, because labor and regulatory compliance cost more in American than they do in Mexico, China, and Indonesia. This is why Fender’s current American guitars cost the most, and why the cheapest Fender guitar in an “America only” scenario would likely cost more than $1,099, assuming Fender could survive the transition. Imagine being 13 and watching John Frusciante or Bilinda Butcher on YouTube and not being able to find a cheapie Squier Strat or Jazzmaster on Craigslist. “American only” means fewer players, which means less music, which would suck. 

We should instead be celebrating the business model used by guitar companies. Having played guitars from all three of Fender’s factories, as well as foreign-made guitars from Yamaha, Epiphone, and PRS, I am happy to report that the men and women of Mexico, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China produce guitars that rival those made in America and Japan, once the only two countries considered capable of consistently producing quality electric guitars at mass-market scale. Again, there are real differences, and American and Japenese instruments are generally the nicest of the bunch. But those differences are impressively and delightfully inconsequential to all but the most discerning players, and many foreign-made guitar shortcomings can be addressed with a little elbow grease (and, to be quite honest, a little practice on the instrument). I love the heck out of my Ensenada guitar, and I have deep respect and gratitude for the people who work in that plant. They are skilled and prodigious and I’m sorry that one of my country’s presidential candidates suggested that they should be out of work simply because their bosses are American and they are not.

More sales of overseas guitars mean more guitar lessons and more guitar repairs. It also means more guitar music. Those opportunities do not exist at today’s scale in a world where “multinational corporations” are forced to build all their guitars in America. 

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Elizabeth Warren Hates Your Cheap Foreign-Made Electric Guitar

The cheapest new Stratocaster guitar you can buy from Fender’s home factory in Corona, California, costs $1,099. The cheapest Stratocaster you can buy made in Fender’s plant in Ensenada, Mexico costs $499. Too much? The cheapest Stratocaster you can buy from Fender’s Squier factory in Indonesia costs $349.99, and the cheapest one you can buy from Fender’s Squier Affinity factory in China is $199. There are differences across the range in the woodwork, the electronics, and the metal parts, but the consensus among even the snobbiest gear nerds is that Fender guitars of every price can play remarkably well out of the box.

I thought about the Ensenada factory last night while listening to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) decry Mexican factories during the Democratic primary debate in Detroit. 

“You know, for decades, we have had a trade policy that has been written by giant multinational corporations to help giant multinational corporations,” she said. “They have no loyalty to America. They have no patriotism. If they can save a nickel by moving a job to Mexico, they’ll do it in a heartbeat. If they can continue a polluting plant by moving it to Vietnam, they’ll do it in a heartbeat….I have put out a new comprehensive plan that says we’re not going to do it that way.”

While Fender is an iconic American company whose instruments played a major role in developing some of America’s most iconic musicians—Jimi Hendrix, Dick Dale, Chrissie Hynde, Eddie Hazel, Stevie Ray Vaughan, Merle Haggard, Albert Collins, Bonnie Raitt—it is, in fact, exactly the kind of company Warren decried as having no loyalty and no patriotism because it is a “multinational corporation” that uses foreign factory labor to make money. And thank God for that, because if making guitars outside America was not a profitable venture for Fender, their guitars would not be affordable to the vast majority of Americans who play. 

No mass-market American guitar company exclusively sells American-made guitars because American musicians can’t and won’t pay for them. “Regulations and the general cost of doing business make it nearly impossible to do an affordable ‘working man’s’ guitar” in California, Schecter Guitar Research President Michael Ciravolo said in a 2017 interview. While Schecter does manufacture higher-end guitars in California, “95 percent of our artists play our Korean-built Diamond Series guitars. These are guitars that most players can afford and walk into any store around the world and get the EXACT guitar or bass that Syn Gates or Nikki Sixx play.”

Gibson, America’s other iconic electric guitar powerhouse and the biggest American market share owner after Fender, makes its Epiphone guitars in Qingdao, China. The same foreign factory model is used by the other guitar brands Fender owns, and all of America’s smaller mass-market electric guitar companies. From PRS to Ernie Ball Music Man, to G&L, Schecter, and ESP. Every last one uses overseas factories to offer tiered pricing and “save a nickel,” as Warren would say. As a result, the parents of a teenage St. Vincent fan who can’t afford her American-made signature model from Ernie Ball Music Man, which retails for $2,249, might be able to swing the $539 St. Vincent model expertly crafted in Indonesia by the company’s Sterling subsidiary. Still too much? The used market for instruments made overseas is a buyer’s market, which means American musicians who can’t afford a brand new $539 Sterling St. Vincent can find it used for a hundred (or more!) less. 

Consider, again, that $1,099 is the price of Fender’s cheapest American Strat, and that’s before sales tax. If the company were to shift all of its production capacity back to the U.S., it would likely employ many fewer people than it does now, because labor and regulatory compliance cost more in American than they do in Mexico, China, and Indonesia. This is why Fender’s current American guitars cost the most, and why the cheapest Fender guitar in an “America only” scenario would likely cost more than $1,099, assuming Fender could survive the transition. Imagine being 13 and watching John Frusciante or Bilinda Butcher on YouTube and not being able to find a cheapie Squier Strat or Jazzmaster on Craigslist. “American only” means fewer players, which means less music, which would suck. 

We should instead be celebrating the business model used by guitar companies. Having played guitars from all three of Fender’s factories, as well as foreign-made guitars from Yamaha, Epiphone, and PRS, I am happy to report that the men and women of Mexico, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China produce guitars that rival those made in America and Japan, once the only two countries considered capable of consistently producing quality electric guitars at mass-market scale. Again, there are real differences, and American and Japenese instruments are generally the nicest of the bunch. But those differences are impressively and delightfully inconsequential to all but the most discerning players, and many foreign-made guitar shortcomings can be addressed with a little elbow grease (and, to be quite honest, a little practice on the instrument). I love the heck out of my Ensenada guitar, and I have deep respect and gratitude for the people who work in that plant. They are skilled and prodigious and I’m sorry that one of my country’s presidential candidates suggested that they should be out of work simply because their bosses are American and they are not.

More sales of overseas guitars mean more guitar lessons and more guitar repairs. It also means more guitar music. Those opportunities do not exist at today’s scale in a world where “multinational corporations” are forced to build all their guitars in America. 

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A Dodgeball Game in Michigan Ends in Assault Charges for 10-Year-Old

An accidental schoolyard injury has resulted in criminal charges against a 10-year-old child in Michigan.

Detroit’s WXYZ reports that on April 29, a student at Ruth Eriksson Elementary in Canton was hit in the face with a ball during a game similar to dodgeball—in this game, students throw a ball in the air and catch it when it falls back down. The injured student’s mother hit said her child has a medical condition that could be worsened by a head injury, and that her child sustained a black eye, a bruised nose, and a concussion from the ball hit. 

A black student who was playing in the game was accused of intentionally hitting the other student, who is white, in the face. The black student received a one-day suspension. His mother, Cameishi Lindley, hoped that would settle the incident.

But the injured student’s mother filed a police report in April, and last week, Lindley received a call from the Wayne County Juvenile Court informing her that her son, who is slated to start fifth grade this year, is being charged with aggravated assault in the Third Circuit Juvenile Court in Detroit. Lindley told WXYZ that she “couldn’t believe it.” A Facebook fundraiser created by Lindley for legal expenses also indicated that her son was the only student to be punished earlier in the year, despite playing the game with a group of students.

The injured student’s mother, who is reportedly a teacher, told WXYZ that her son had been “targeted” twice before, both times in games where contact was to be expected. Lindley told WXYZ that she was sorry “that her child got hurt,” but was also “unaware” of any prior incidents.

Lindley’s 10-year-old son is set to appear in court on Thursday for a pre-trial conference.

A 2016 report by Reason‘s C.J. Ciaramella found that the Wayne County criminal justice system has a history of treating minors much more harshly than other counties around the country.

At the time of Ciaramella’s report, about 150 juveniles were serving life without the possibility of parole in Wayne County, the highest number in the country. This accounted for 40 percent of the state’s juvenile life without the possibility of parole sentences despite making up just 18 percent of the population. The sentences were also found to have disproportionately affected young black Americans.

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Why The Fed Is Compelled To Cut Rates – Housing, Housing, Housing!

Authored by Charis Hamilton via Econimica blog,

  • The Annual Growth Of Potential Home Buyers Is Decelerating To Near Zero And Will Remain There For The Next Decade.

  • The Annual Growth of Potential Sellers is Surging and Will Continue To Do So Over The Next Decade.

  • A Surplus of Homes Are Being Built Versus The Minimal Growth In Buyers.

  • The Fed Will Cut Rates In Pursuit Of Prolonging The Housing Bubble.

US Births, Fertility – 1950 to Present

From 2008 through 2018, there were 4.4 million fewer births in the US than the US Census estimated there would be in its 2008 projection.  2018 US births were over 500 thousand fewer than those seen in 2007.  The sharp and ongoing 12% decline in births since 2007 is entirely contrary to the sharp increases in asset prices and economic activity…and the Census and Federal Reserve expectations.  The chart below details annual births (blue columns) and the fertility rate (black line).  During each previous economic upturn and financial bubble, the gains were widespread enough to incent a higher fertility rate and higher quantity of births…until the opposite result has been observed for over a decade in the current cycle.  Whatever policies are in place are not translating to economic and financial well being among the child bearing population…and fertility and births reflect this.

Below, births (blue columns) versus the population segments.  The dark blue line representing the 0-14yr/old population versus the 45+yr/old population (red line) is so telling.  Since 1962, the 0-14yr/old population is essentially unchanged while the 45+yr/old population has more than doubled…rising by +76 million.  Meanwhile, the minor increases in the 15-45yr/old childbearing population (yellow line) continue to be overridden by falling fertility rates.  Thus a childbearing population that is nearly double the size it was in 1957 is having 12% fewer total births…and births continue falling fast.

Ok, you get the idea.  Total births in 2018 were 12% below the 2007 and 1957 double birth peaks and 17% below what was projected by the Census just a decade earlier.  The vast majority of population growth is now among the 65+ year old population…in particular, the fastest growing segment by percentage and also in total numbers is the 75+ year olds.

Home Buying Population, Housing Permits, Interest/Mortgage Rates

So, what does this mean for housing?  On a net basis, nearly all housing is purchased by the 20 to 64yr/old population segment…so, the chart below shows their annual change (blue columns), housing permits (black columns), Federal Funds rate (yellow dashed line), and the 30 year mortgage (red dashed line).  The 20 to 64yr/old population saw twin annual growth peaks in 1981 and 1998, adding in excess of 2.2 and 2.4 million during those two years.  As for housing permits, they vacillated from 1 to 2.2 million annually from 1965 to 2005. 

But the core population and housing permits essentially haphazardly mirrored one another from ’65 through ’05.  However, since ’05 permits tanked unlike anything seen since 1950 while growth among potential buyers has fallen to levels unseen since prior to 1950.  Of course, the adoption of ZIRP by the Fed and record low 30 year mortgages have spurred home builders…in conjunction with investors looking for a cash flow vehicle and foreigners looking for a safe place to park excess cash.  However, now all three sources of buying have their own problems…population growth among buyers is falling away, foreigners have been spooked by currency and administration actions, and investors facing rent-to-property valuation ceilings.

And everything, save for one, is about to get worse aside from the Federal Funds rate (and resultant mortgage rates) going down.  While valuations are through the roof, annual growth of potential buyers is a fraction of that seen in ’98 or ’05, foreigners have net ceased their purchasing partly due to relative dollar strength, and whether foreign or domestic, investing at these valuations with flattening rents simply no longer pencils.

As the blue columns in the chart above from 2019 through 2030 show, the annual growth of buyers will be at a level unseen since before WWII.  By 2021, 20 to 64 year old growth is projected to be just 200 thousand annually (and this is entirely dependent on immigration, otherwise declines will rule).  On a monthly basis, this means less than 20 thousand new potential employees, less than 20 thousand new potential homebuyers, car buyers, etc. per month.  So, the next decade is one of essentially little to no growth among buyers (blue columns below) while potential sellers (65+ year olds, red columns) surge.  The case for full employment and minimal further working age population growth (and thus, minimal further jobs growth) is made HERE.

Anyone unsure of the Fed’s motives in cutting interest rates need only look at the primary pillar of the US economy, the housing market, the decline of potential buyers versus surge in sellers. 

The only remaining tool the Fed has is ZIRP and more likely NIRP to hammer mortgage rates to new record lows in an attempt to continue blowing the housing bubble and save the banks from their fate, otherwise.

Birth data is via the CDC, population data via the UN report, World Population Prospects 2019.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2K9d4QA Tyler Durden

Chicago PMI Crashes Near Post-Crisis Lows

Despite some rebounds in regional Fed surveys, Chicago PMI has fallen for five of the seven months so far in 2019, collapsing in July to 44.4 – the second weakest since the financial crisis.

This is the worst drop since the financial crisis.

This was dramatically below the 49.5 lowest analyst estimate.

Only 2 components rose month-over-month and New orders, Employment, Production and Order Backlogs all contracting

  • Business barometer fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • New orders fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

  • Employment fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Production fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

  • Order backlogs fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction

This is the worst start to a year for Chicago PMI in at least 30 years…

Time to cut rates!!

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A Dodgeball Game in Michigan Ends in Assault Charges for 10-Year-Old

An accidental schoolyard injury has resulted in criminal charges against a 10-year-old child in Michigan.

Detroit’s WXYZ reports that on April 29, a student at Ruth Eriksson Elementary in Canton was hit in the face with a ball during a game similar to dodgeball—in this game, students throw a ball in the air and catch it when it falls back down. The injured student’s mother hit said her child has a medical condition that could be worsened by a head injury, and that her child sustained a black eye, a bruised nose, and a concussion from the ball hit. 

A black student who was playing in the game was accused of intentionally hitting the other student, who is white, in the face. The black student received a one-day suspension. His mother, Cameishi Lindley, hoped that would settle the incident.

But the injured student’s mother filed a police report in April, and last week, Lindley received a call from the Wayne County Juvenile Court informing her that her son, who is slated to start fifth grade this year, is being charged with aggravated assault in the Third Circuit Juvenile Court in Detroit. Lindley told WXYZ that she “couldn’t believe it.” A Facebook fundraiser created by Lindley for legal expenses also indicated that her son was the only student to be punished earlier in the year, despite playing the game with a group of students.

The injured student’s mother, who is reportedly a teacher, told WXYZ that her son had been “targeted” twice before, both times in games where contact was to be expected. Lindley told WXYZ that she was sorry “that her child got hurt,” but was also “unaware” of any prior incidents.

Lindley’s 10-year-old son is set to appear in court on Thursday for a pre-trial conference.

A 2016 report by Reason‘s C.J. Ciaramella found that the Wayne County criminal justice system has a history of treating minors much more harshly than other counties around the country.

At the time of Ciaramella’s report, about 150 juveniles were serving life without the possibility of parole in Wayne County, the highest number in the country. This accounted for 40 percent of the state’s juvenile life without the possibility of parole sentences despite making up just 18 percent of the population. The sentences were also found to have disproportionately affected young black Americans.

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Marianne Williamson Rises from the Memes and Enters America’s Dreams

She resolutely refuses to talk policy specifics. Her voice sounds like a “televangelist crossed with a glass of Chardonnay,” to borrow a phrase from Robby Soave. She says things like “dark psychic force” and “emotional turbulence” when discussing politics. And she was the breakout star of Tuesday night’s Democratic presidential debate in Detroit.

Before yesterday, Marianne Williamson’s candidacy existed mostly as a meme. She seemed interesting and weird and destined to drop out of the polls and then the race. But a funny thing happened on her way to the remainder bin: Not only did the quirky and possibly insane self-help author make it back for round two of the #DemDebates, she also stole the show.

As candidates like Sens. Bernie Sanders (D–Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) huffed and puffed about the putrid centrism of fellow candidates, and the purported centrists griped and swiped at their more radical counterparts, Williamson beamed with calm, sturdy energy and fired off quietly devastating barbs.

“I look at some of you and I almost wonder why you’re Democrats—you almost think something is wrong with using the instruments of government to help people,” she chastised colleagues at one point. Later, she ripped into “politicians, including my fellow candidates,” for taking “tens of thousands—and in some cases, hundreds of thousands—of dollars from… corporate donors” while acting like they “now have the moral authority to say we’re going to take them on.”

Questioned about the environmental crisis in Flint, Michigan, she turned it into a referendum on Donald Trump’s aura:

The racism, the bigotry, and the entire conversation that we’re having here tonight—if you think any of this wonkiness is going to deal with this dark psychic force of the collectivized hatred that this president is bringing up in this country, then I’m afraid that the Democrats are going to see some very dark days.

America, apparently, ate it up. Williamson was the most-searched candidate on Google last night in every state except Montana (where their own governor and debate-stage newbie Steve Bullock got the most Google queries). CNN hosts fawned over her in the post-debate analysis. Even the antagonize-everyone teens behind Mike Gravel’s candidacy were digging Williamson’s vibes.

Political reporters and pundits on the left, right, and posts further afield had positive things to say about Williamson’s performance, if not necessarily her ideas or ability to win. Yet even those estimations seemed to rise last night for some.

As Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.) pointed out during the last election, Americans love “the craziest son of a bitch in the race.” Among Democrats this year, that’s Williamson. Her Big “Santa Fe Aunt Energy” is a refreshing change of pace compared to the other career politicians on stage. Her New Age-ness makes her relatable to some, and an easy target for low-stakes ribbing for many of us. Her long-shot candidacy makes it feel harmless to ironically cheer her on.

But are we failing to take Williamson seriously at our own peril? Not everyone seems to think that elevating her is harmless fun.

Not only does Williamson buy into the litany of bad, big-government proposals that most of the Democratic candidates do, she has also written a host of bizarre (and some say dangerous) things about both mental and physical health (among other things).

For more on Williamson overall, see Jesse Walker’s excellent profile of Williamson from earlier this month. For more on her debate performance last night, check out these write-ups from The Spectator and from Buzzfeed.

As for how Williamson herself thought the debate went, she told reporter Sarah Mucha last night: “I’ll tell you later when I see the memes.”

FREE MINDS

Latino voters split on whether President Donald Trump is racist:

FREE MARKETS

Buttigieg would destroy independent contractors. South Bend Mayor and Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg wants to unionize “gig economy” workers, he told debate watchers last night. He has proposed similarly before. “But in order to successfully execute that plan, the presidential hopeful would need to ensure those workers are reclassified as fully-fledged employees, as opposed to independent contractors,” points out Billy Binion.

That may be a tough sell: The National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) already ruled that Uber drivers cannot unionize because they are independent contractors, and the Department of Labor similarly declined to classify gig economy participants as employees. Both agencies said that those individuals are free to work when they please, can set their own hours when it best suits them, and are permitted to work for competing companies. Those criteria, and several others, make them contractors.

And this change could be devastating to not just employers that rely on them and those who use the services they provide but to the workers themselves.

QUICK HITS

  • “Tony Timpa wailed and pleaded for help more than 30 times as Dallas police officers pinned his shoulders, knees and neck to the ground. ‘You’re gonna kill me! You’re gonna kill me! You’re gonna kill me!'” he shouted. Police laughed as they did.
  • During health care discussions in last night’s Democratic debate, “neither Sanders nor Warren even acknowledged the possibility that Medicare for All could affect providers adversely. Instead, they kept returning to the profits of drugmakers and insurance companies, as if that were the entire problem.”

  • “Conspiracy theories about social media are undermining American institutions,” warns the R Street Institute’s Jeffrey Wesling.
  • Pete Buttigieg held up alcohol Prohibition as evidence that we could abolish the Second Amendment.

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