Month: September 2019

See… stocks are up, everything’s fine!!

 

After two days of utter carnage in the quant community, things slowed a little today – but note that the unwind continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Pressure remained on Asia quants…

h/t @MichaelBKrause

And continued once again in the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

Of most note is the biblical reversal this week – “the last shall be first, and the first last: for many be called, but few chosen.” In other words – the bounce in stocks this week is a bid for the YTD worst-performers and the weakest names this week are sold from the best-performing names YTD…

h/t @MichaelBKrause

“Most Shorted” Stocks continue to squeeze higher – up a stunning 12.75% in the last 6 days, the biggest squeeze since August 2011.

Source: Bloomberg

The Short-squeeze lifted Small Caps to major outperformance today…

And Small Caps and Trannies lead the week with the rest all scrambling into the green for the week today…

 

S&P topped 3,000…

Momo has now fallen for 9 of the last 10 days

Source: Bloomberg

VIX fell back to a 14 handle…

 

Bank stocks relative to the market stalled today at key resistance level…

Source: Bloomberg

The gap between the yield on a Moody’s Investors Service index of Baa-rated corporate debt and the dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index narrowed to less than two percentage points last month for the first time since the 1960s and has stayed below the threshold this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and figures cited in a report by Keith Parker, a strategist at UBS.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Treasury yields ended the day practically unchanged (NOTE – a record calendar in the last few days has been largely responsible for this carnage as rate-locks are set)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 30Y Yield ended unchanged and traded in a very narrow range…

Source: Bloomberg

Ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, the market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 10bps cut to -50bps and a 37% chance of 20bps cut to -60bps!

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged today, but only back to the top of its recent narrow range…

Source: Bloomberg

The Argentine Peso plummeted to a new record low (if you follow the real ‘blue-chip’ rate and not the ‘managed’ official rate)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Altcoins leaked lower but Bitcoin went sideways on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tested and bounced $10,000 a number of times today…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed picture in commodity-land with oil worst on the day and PMs making modest gains…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was clubbed like a baby seal despite big inventory draws as headlines suggested Trump was looking to cutback on Iran sanctions…

Gold futures scrambled back above $1500…

Silver futs also bounced off key support at $18…

 

Finally, some fun-durr-mentals. As Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg tweeted today, ” To little fanfare, the OECD leading indicator fell for the 19th straight month in July, hitting its lowest level since September 2009. Recession pressures continue to build. “

Probably nothing!!

As the United States and parts of the rest of the globe pause to remember the tragic September 11 terror attacks and nearly 3,000 Americans who lost their lives, China has used the occasion for crude and cheap propaganda purposes. 

Astoundingly on Wednesday the Hong Kong edition of state-owned China Daily newspaper published a Facebook post featuring an archival image of the attack on the Twin Towers while “warning” the public that “massive terror attacks” were being planned by anti-Beijing Hong Kong protesters.

The post warned attacks were imminent and included sabotage operations such as setting fires and bombing gas pipelines, as well as of targeted attacks on non-Cantonese speakers. 

“Anti-government fanatics are planning massive terror attacks, including blowing up gas pipes, in Hong Kong on September 11,” the state media message said. “The 9/11 terror plot also encourages indiscriminate attacks on non-native speakers of Cantonese and starting mountain fires.”

The publication claimed to be in possession of intercepted communications of HK protest leaders via Telegram. 

Western journalists based in Hong Kong were quick to respond that China Daily and other state publications were officially losing their minds over Hong Kong.

China’s state media are officially losing their minds over #HongKong: https://t.co/0LV9cYcGC8 (This is China Daily. TOP papers like @washingtonpost & @nytimes accept millions from them to plant genuine-looking ‘news’ inserts into their print editions.) pic.twitter.com/Cdi9UT5Ub4

— Tom Grundy (@tomgrundy) September 9, 2019

Needless to say, no “terror attacks” took place by Wednesday’s close (local time), and protest leaders had actually halted mass demonstrations for the day in respect of 9/11. 

Further, authorities made no arrests nor came forward with any “proof” that such attacks were being planned. 

Mainland officials have of late frequently leveled the charge of external state “foreign interference” in the now multiple months-long protests and unrest, which is why they are also likely to increasingly invoke Western images for propaganda consumption. 

Authored by Zachary Petrizzo via The College Fix,

A penis ring toss, vagina bean bag toss, and lubricant taste tests were just a few of the activities students at George Mason University took part in Tuesday night at a “Consent Carnival” hosted by the Student Support and Advocacy Center.

The vagina bean bag toss boasted giant inflatable lips that served to mimic a “vagina,” and students could throw large pink bean bags into it. The game doubled as an educational display, informing students on flyers that “not all people with vaginas are women.”

“Genitalia is not an indicator of gender and it can be harmful to assume so,” the display added. Other information provided included the number of nerve endings on the clitoris (8,000), how the labia comes in different colors (“light pink to dark brown”), and the fact that the vagina is self cleaning.

As for the penis ring toss, the educational component to that game was that the eight or so three-foot-high penis inflatables were surrounded by signs on how to correctly use a condom, among other information.

Meanwhile there was popcorn and candy for students to nibble on. They were also offered tastings of various lubricants. The flavors included cupcake, watermelon and green apple.

Additional stations at the carnival included the “gender unicorn” booth, which helped teach students how to properly react to friends coming out as LGBTQ. There was also an “affirmative consent kissing booth” and a “you mustache for consent” table that sought to teach students how to get verbal consent before and as they engage in sexual activity.

“Condom balloon pop” and “don’t touch my hair” booths were also offered to the crowd, but many students flocked to the face painter and snowcone machine, which appeared to be the biggest hits at the event. (The face painter told The Fix students were not asking for sexually explicit images.)

And no carnival would be complete without a balloon artist. Several students could be seen walking around holding giant, flesh-colored penis-shaped balloons.

John Cicchetti, associate director of the Student Support and Advocacy Center, told The College Fix that each station at the carnival is meant to be “presented in a fun and interesting way to attract students but also educate them.”

When peppered with questions about the reasoning behind the fair, Cicchetti said the event was not a result of an incident on campus but geared toward educating the entire university community.

Maggie Olszewska, director of the Student Support and Advocacy Center and the facilitator for the “gender unicorn” station, told The College Fix the carnival represented “proactive education.”

When asked about her station and the current number of genders, Olszewska stated that she didn’t know the exact number, but that all genders should be accepted.

The Fix asked both Olszewska and Cicchetti about funding for the event, but neither could identify the exact source and suggested reaching out to university leadership.

Student volunteers from the event included representatives from the George Mason student government, Patriots for Choice, and the GMU Student Support and Advocacy Center. Signs at the event stated it was co-sponsored by the Woman and Gender Studies Department, Student Health Services, and Patriot Experience.

The “consent carnival” at George Mason University took place about two weeks after it hosted an event called “Sexual Chocolate,” which taught incoming freshmen sexual education with chocolate treats and chocolate information laced throughout the presentation.

President Trump slammed just-fired National Security Adviser John Bolton in Wednesday comments from the White House, saying he let the mustached war-hawk go after making “some very big mistakes,” and that Bolton didn’t get along with others in the administration, according to The Hill. 

“So, John is somebody that I actually got along with very well. He made some very big mistakes,” said Trump in response to an Oval Office question following a meeting earlier to discuss the dangers of e-cigarettes and vaping. 

Trump slammed Bolton’s “Libyan model” remark in regards to North Korea as “not a good statement to make,” after the adviser suggested that Kim Jong Un could meet the fate of former Libyan leader Mommar Gadhafi. 

“And it set us back, and frankly he wanted to do things — not necessarily tougher than me — You know John’s known as a tough guy. He’s so tough he got us into Iraq … but he’s actually somebody I had a very good relationship with. But he wasn’t getting along with people in the administration that I consider very important,” said Trump – who blamed Kim Jong Un not wanting to work with Bolton after the Libya remark.

“As soon as he mentioned that, the Libyan model, what a disaster. Take a look at what happened to Gadhafi,” said Trump. “I don’t blame Kim Jong Un for what he said after that. And he wanted nothing to do with John Bolton. And that’s not a question of being tough. That’s a question of being not smart to say something like that.” 

Trump suggested that the two may not have parted ways on good terms, telling reporters “I hope we left on good stead, but maybe we haven’t.” 

Trump tweeted Tuesday that he had fired Bolton by telling him Monday evening “that his services are no longer needed at the White House,” pointing to disagreements with the national security adviser and others in the administration.

But Bolton immediately disputed his account, tweeting that he offered to resign on Monday and that Trump had asked to talk about it the following day.

Bolton resigned effective immediately on Tuesday, according to a copy of his brief resignation letter.

Trump said Wednesday he thought Bolton would try to “spin it his way,” claiming that he asked for Bolton’s resignation at a meeting in the Oval Office on Monday. –The Hill

Trump said on Wednesday that he would announce Bolton’s replacement next week, and that there are five candidates under consideration. 

“We have a lot of good people who want that position,” said Trump, adding “Well, I have five people who want it very much. There are five people I consider very qualified, good people I have gotten to know over the past three years.” 

Authored by Cesar Chelala via Counterpunch.org,

A new anniversary of a catastrophe brings back strong feelings and sad memories. Such is the case of the 9/11 attacks on New York’s World Trade Center, a tragedy that had long-lasting effects. New York, and the world, has not been the same since the events of September 11, 2001.

The attacks on the Twin Towers produced the most concentrated response to an emergency in the history of the United States. It is estimated that at least 100 emergency units and dozens of private ambulances headed to the scene to pick up the wounded and take them to nearby hospitals. At the same time, more than 2,000 police officers searched the towers and rescued survivors. But the weight of the response fell to the New York Fire Department, whose response to the events was truly heroic.

The attacks on the towers led to a surge in national pride and public expressions of patriotism and a strong commitment to help those that survived and the families of those who were killed. But there was also an increase of harassment incidents and hate crimes against South Asians, Middle Easterners and even those who looked like them. Several Indian Sikhs were attacked and killed because they were erroneously believed to be Muslims.

Health effects

The attacks were particularly disturbing to children, who saw the images of destruction replayed relentlessly on television. For years after the attack children suffered from post-traumatic stress disorder. More than 2,500 contaminants, many of them dangerous carcinogens, were present in thousands of tons of toxic debris resulting from the collapse of the towers. It is estimated that over 18,000 people have become sick as a result of the toxic dust.

Economic consequences

There was a wide range of economic losses after the attacks. It is estimated that the city suffered economic losses estimated in more than $90 billion. They were the consequence of lost productivity, wide-ranging insurance claims against the city, loss of real state and art objects, and impaired tourism and trade, among many other effects.

Security and military actions

Security and protective services suffered significant changes due to the attacks. Congress passed Aviation and Transportation Security Act which affected air travel and security policies, as well as guidelines to be followed before getting on board. The Department of Homeland Security required pilots to carry firearms on board, and pilots were obliged to undergo training to prevent other terror attacks.

The USA Patriot Act was also passed, which broadened the powers of law enforcement agencies for the purpose of identifying terrorist activities. The government was given wide powers to search people’s records. Through the program called Total Information Awareness special technology was developed to allow the collection and analysis of information about every individual in the United States, and detect unusual behaviors that could lead to terrorist attacks.

International

Using the attacks as an excuse, the U.S. conducted wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that would have serious consequences on the U.S. economy and the world rule of law. Many people throughout the world believe that the U.S. squandered a wave of world goodwill resulting from the attacks. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have ravaged those countries, and resulted in a permanent state of instability and destruction. “The war –never the choice of the Afghan people- has done great harm to our people for all sorts of different local, national, regional and international reasons. Widespread corruption, the massive arming of militias, the fuelling of war by neighboring countries, the civilian losses and night raids and deterioration of security have all undermined our children’s education, our women’s ability to work, our ability to provide basic social services to the neediest part of the population,” said Orzala Ashraf Nemat, an Afghan human rights activist.

Lesson

One of the lessons to be drawn from that tragedy is that violence begets violence and intolerance breed intolerance. Unless there is a new approach to preventing terrorist acts we will continue to live under the threat of terror. Permanent confrontation is not the answer. While it is easy to create enemies, it is much harder to understand the “other”, a necessary approach if we wish to eliminate conflict and honor the desire for peace and security of all people in the world.

The FTC has apparently wasted no time in launching the agency’s anti-trust probe into Amazon. According to a Bloomberg report, several merchants have already participated in several meetings and phone calls with the agency to discuss the amount of leverage Amazon has over their business, as well as the impact that the e-commerce giant’s sometimes-arbitrary rule changes can have on their bottom lines.

According to BBG, which based its story on conversations with a handful of third-party merchants who use Amazon’s platform, the interviews have involved several FTC attorneys and at least one economist.

The retailers all said they were asked basic questions like what percentage of revenue their businesses derive from Amazon compared with other online marketplaces like Walmart and EBay. This suggests that the FTC is skeptical of Amazon’s claim that third-party sellers have real alternatives.

Though the probe is likely still in its early days, the information BBG gleaned from the merchants it interviewed suggests that the FTC is in the process of learning how Amazon works, while keeping an eye out for practices that break the law. The investigators are also apparently trying to identify markets dominated by the company.

One former FTC official who spoke with BBG for the story said that it sounds like the agency’s staff are taking the investigation very seriously.

“Early in an investigation, that’s a sign of staff doing a serious job,” said Michael Kades, who spent 20 years at the FTC. “They’re spending lots of time with witnesses and trying to really understand what they’re saying.”

The investigation of Amazon is part of a broader probe into tech giants like Amazon, Google and Facebook, and the influence they have on the economy. The FTC has also reportedly been tasked with investigating Facebook, while the DoJ has been tasked with investigating Google.

Nearly all the states attorneys general this week unveiled separate anti-trust investigations into Google and Facebook.

One critical early task for the FTC is defining Amazon’s competitive universe. The company has argued that it should be considered a retailer who competes against online and off-line rivals. In this universe, Amazon’s market share is only 4% of the US retail market.

However, if the definition of Amazon’s competitive universe is narrowed to just online retailers, its share rises to 40%, giving Amazon significant leverage.

Many of the third-party retailers who spoke with BBG said they get more than 90% of their sales revenue from Amazon, making them vulnerable to the company’s demands and unexplained policy changes. Retailers described the immense hassle that Amazon’s fee hikes and arbitrary policy changes often create for the third-party retailers who sell roughly half of the goods appearing on the e-commerce giant’s platform.

One retailer, Jaivin Karnani, told the FTC how being suspended from Amazon’s platform could easily put a small third-party retailer out of business. During a suspension, Amazon can hold on to a retailers’ money for up to three months.

Desperation prompted merchant Karnani to contact the agency to report his difficulties selling video games and electronics on the site. Karnani told investigators he lost 10% of his sales after Apple and Amazon reached an agreement last year to limit who could sell Apple products on the site. The change followed years of concern about counterfeit iPhone accessories. He also described account suspensions in recent months during which Amazon hung on to his inventory and money.

“I told them if Amazon suspends you, it’s like a death knell,” said Karnani, who has been selling on the site for two years. “I told them when Amazon shuts you off, they sit on your money for 90 days and there’s nothing you can do. They were surprised about that.”

Merchants can appeal suspensions. But even if they prevail, it’s a guilty-until-proven-innocent process that can cut off their sales for weeks without warning, potentially putting them out of business. Amazon in August instituted a new 30-day-notice policy regarding suspensions to appease regulators in Germany, who maintained the process was unfair because it wasn’t transparent. In an emailed statement, an Amazon spokesperson said: “We have an appeals process where sellers can explain how they will prevent the violation from happening in the future or let us know if they believe they were compliant.”

Another merchant told the FTC how he spent thousands of dollars on advertising and helped triple sales of a unnamed health and beauty product. But when Amazon noticed how well the product was selling, the company started placing its own wholesale orders, undercutting the third-party merchant and effectively saddling him with thousands of dollars in unsold inventory.

One third-party seller told BBG he answered questions from a team of FTC lawyers about a Medium article he published detailing how 98% of his sales are generated on Amazon’s platform.

Molson Hart, who sells toys on Amazon through his company Viahart, said he spoke with the FTC for 90 minutes about an article he posted on Medium detailing how 98% of his sales come from Amazon and that other platforms like EBay and Walmart account for less than 2% of revenue. He declined to discuss specifics of his conversation with FTC investigators but said the conversation focused on his Medium article. It argued that Amazon, which faces little competition online, has been raising fees and selling advertising—forcing merchants to raise prices.

Another Amazon merchant, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said he spent about 90 minutes on the phone with an FTC investigator in July and has since provided the agency with documents and data.

He described helping triple sales of a health and beauty brand by spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to advertise on the site. Amazon noticed, placed its own wholesale orders with the brand and sold the product directly, cutting him out and sticking him with hundreds of thousands of dollars in unsold inventory. Another time, he told investigators, Amazon discovered one of his products being sold for less at Walmart.com and then made the item less visible to shoppers until the Walmart price went back up.

The investigation might still be in its early days, but it appears the FTC has homed in on Amazon’s biggest vulnerability: The third-party sellers who have no alternatives, and who are subject to the company’s whims.

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Google wants you to bring Big Brother into the privacy of your home with its Google Nest surveillance system. Google’s Nest Hub surveillance system is constantly looking for its owner’s face and technically can’t be shut off. After making sure certain information is censored on behalf of the political establishment, Google will make sure you’re watched accordingly.

This is raising concerns about privacy and human rights. Censorship has crossed the line long ago along with mass surveillance, but humans continue to all but demand more control over their lives. This latest “smart-home” device from Mountain View comes equipped with a constantly-scanning facial-recognition-enabled camera that can’t be shut off, only ‘disabled’ with a switch that also (supposedly) deactivates the microphone, according to a report by RT.  Just as the device is constantly listening for its “wake word,” it is prepared to leap into action at the sight of its owner’s visage.

The Nest Hub, as its name suggests, serves as a “hub” for other internet-of-things devices like thermostats, surveillance cameras, and doorbells – which also come equipped with facial recognition, in case the user misses that feeling of being constantly spied on when they finally come home after a long day of surveillance outside. It also uploads video from phone calls and camera footage accessed remotely into the cloud and provides a window into your home for anyone with access to your Google or Nest account. –RT

Google admits that it may “use your face data to test future features and recognition algorithms before pushing them to your device,” CNET reported, citing a statement from the company, which also claimed “no pixels leave the Nest Hub Max” – except when they’re “temporarily processed at Google from time to time to improve the quality of your experience with this device.”

So it’s all at Google’s discretion, not yours.  The technology giant will decide what information of yours they want and will act accordingly.  For a company in the political establishment’s back pocket, while pushing totalitarian censorship, this should be a huge red flag.

Google will “occasionally use the images you provide during setup to generate a face model in the cloud for a couple of reasons” related to “improving product experience” and “motivated by the fact that we have more computing power available in the cloud,” a company spokesperson told the outlet. –RT

The excuses sound familiar.  The doublespeak sounds a lot like when Google made excuses  for sharing Home audio snippets, like claiming the use of “language experts” was “necessary to creating products like the Google Assistant.” Unlike Google Home, which neglected to inform the users of that key fact until after it was discovered by a Belgian broadcaster, Nest Hub informs users they’re being surveilled and tracked right up front when they set up “Face Match.”

Just how much surveillance is enough?