Get Ready For “Markets Rally On Hopes Of A Phase 2 Trade Deal”

Get Ready For “Markets Rally On Hopes Of A Phase 2 Trade Deal”

Submitted by Market Crumbs,

It was July 6, 2018 when you could argue the U.S.-China trade war officially began. On that day, American tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods came into effect. China immediately struck back with tariffs of its own. The two sides began going tit-for-tat and the trade war we have all grown to love so much was in full force.

Friday, 526 days later, the U.S. and China reached a “phase one” trade deal. As Market Crumbs mentioned last week, this is the second time in two months that the two sides agreed to a phase one trade deal following more than a year of touting a comprehensive trade deal as being very close.

The main issues that were “resolved” as part of the deal reached Friday include tariff relief, increased agricultural purchases and changes to intellectual property and technology issues. As has been the norm, the details of all of these issues and how they will be enforced are not exactly clear.

The U.S. agreed to not implement the tariffs that were set to go into effect yesterday, with China agreeing to not institute retaliatory tariffs in exchange. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted “The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder. The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal.”

“Beijing will increase agricultural purchases significantly,” according to Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Jun. The only issue is he did not detail exactly what “significantly” equates to. Trump separately said he “thought China would hit $50 billion in agricultural purchases.”

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the two sides are aiming to sign the deal in early January in Washington. Ironically, on October 11 when the two sides first agreed to a phase one trade deal, they said the deal could be signed “as soon as next month.”

If you thought the days of waking up to “markets rally on hopes of a trade deal” headlines would become a distant memory, tough luck. Trump tweeted “We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election.” With the administration immediately beginning negotiations on a phase two deal, their go-to tool to pump the stock market can continue to be played whenever markets fall 0.50%.

So while the details of this deal are sparse, it appears the trade war will continue to drag on for the foreseeable future. As Market Crumbs has said all along, this entire debacle doesn’t seem to be accomplishing anything for those it intended to, but rather has become perhaps one of the greatest market manipulation schemes of all time. But just maybe that was the goal all along.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 12/16/2019 – 10:00

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US Manufacturing PMI Rebound Stalls

US Manufacturing PMI Rebound Stalls

With ugly PMIs overnight across AsiaPac, and anything but Lagarde’s stability in Europe (and UK) this morning, preliminary December US PMIs were expected to extend their rebound (despite a slump in economic surprise data) in the last month.

  • Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Small Miss) 52.5 vs 52.6 exp and 52.6 prior – 2-month low

  • Markit US Services PMI (Small Beat) 52.2 vs 52.0 exp and 51.6 prior – 5-month high

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

The surveys bring welcome signs of the economy continuing to regain growth momentum as 2019 draws to a close, with the outlook also brightening to fuel hopes of a strong start to 2020. Business activity, order book and jobs growth all accelerated to five-month highs in December, buoyed by rising domestic sales and further signs of renewed life in export orders.

December’s expansion was led by an improved performance of the vast services sector, accompanied by another month of steady manufacturing growth. Encouragingly, expectations for business activity in the year ahead lifted higher in both sectors to reach the highest since June to suggest the expansion will continue to gain momentum as we head into the New Year. Optimism reflected reduced fears over trade wars and more favorable financial conditions.”

Mixed data from China overnight (but not PMI yet) but Japan and Europe remain flat at the composite PMI level but the US composite rose from 52.0 to 52.2 in December’s flash data…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Williamson suggests some caution is warranted:

The brighter news needs to be caveated, as the overall rate of economic expansion signalled by the surveys remains well below that seen this time last year, commensurate with GDP rising at an annualised rate of just over 1.5%.

Importantly, however, the welcome signs of improvement help to ward off recession risks and should keep the Fed on hold in the coming months. The upward trajectory in the surveys support our expectations that the US economy is on course to see another year of above potential GDP growth of approximately 2.2% in 2020.”

Will that be enough – along with “phase 2 trade talks going well” bullshit – to keep stocks alive until November?


Tyler Durden

Mon, 12/16/2019 – 09:54

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Police Union Chief Claims That Lax Marijuana Enforcement Killed a College Freshman

Last week, an 18-year-old freshman student at Barnard College named Tessa Majors was stabbed to death in a Manhattan park. The New York Police Department (NYPD) believes the killer is a 13-year-old middle school student they have yet to locate. The police have talked to two other middle schoolers who were present at the crime.

Now the head of the Sergeants Benevolent Association, Ed Mullins, is attributing the death to New York’s lax enforcement of marijuana prohibition. He told a radio program:

What I am understanding is that [Majors] was in the park to buy marijuana….We don’t enforce marijuana laws anymore. We’re basically hands-off on the enforcement of marijuana. I understand the mayor made statements that this is surprising on how this can happen in New York City….I really have to question what world he’s living in to think that this is surprising, when we are watching the city slowly erode, with shootings, stabbings, an increase in homicides and, most importantly, a hands-off policing policy.

In such statements, you hear the dying echoes of what might be called the “Reefer Madness mindset,” in which devil weed is the source of all forms of evil and criminality, even when it remains illegal.

New York has a medical marijuana exemption but it is still prohibited under state law to sell, buy, transport, or grow marijuana. Since 2014, the NYPD has been instructed by Mayor Bill DeBlasio not to arrest most people found carrying or smoking pot, even when such use breaks “public view” laws that were routinely invoked to arrest people under the old “stop and frisk” procedures. Since August, possession of under two ounces of marijuana has been a non-criminal, ticketable offense in New York City.

The city’s violent crime levels have remained basically constant in recent years. Through the end of November, the city recorded 299 homicides, up from 275 over the same period last year. Overall, the crime rate was down 1 percent compared to last year. Homicides in New York City peaked at 2,245 in 1990 and this year’s rate remains on par with rates last seen in the early 1950s. New York’s current population is a record high of 8.6 million.

Regardless of the legal status of pot in the Big Apple, does Sgt. Mullins seriously believe that crime and violence around marijuana would increase if it could be purchased legally, like beer, wine, and whiskey? There are still stickups and shootings at corner delis and liquor stores, but no one attributes such crimes to alcohol’s legal status. A major 2017 study found that states on the border between the United States and Mexico that legalized medical marijuana saw decreases in violent crime between 5.6 percent and 12.5 percent. This fall, a study of crime in California and Washington state found that “legalizing recreational use of the drug appeared to have little to no effect on the number of violent and property crimes.” A 2013 study by Rand Corporation for the Office of National Drug Control Policy concluded that “marijuana use does not induce violent crime” and “the links between marijuana use and property crime are thin.”

The full story surrounding Tessa Majors brutal and senseless killing has yet to emerge—including definitive proof that she was trying to buy marijuana. But whatever details come out, it’s hard to see how they will support the idea that maintaining a black market in pot sales will somehow generate less crime and violence than a legal one.

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Justin Amash: Impeachment Manager? Dems Want Former Republican Rep to Help Prosecute Trump

A group of Democrats in the House of Representatives reportedly wants libertarian-leaning legislator Justin Amash to be one of three impeachment managers. The Michigan congressmanwho switched his party allegiance from Republican to independent back in Julyhas been a vocal supporter of impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump while invoking nonpartisan and high-minded reasons for this support.

Now, “a group of 30 freshman Democrats, led by Rep. Dean Phillips (D–Minn.), has asked House leaders to consider [Amash] for the small group tasked with arguing its case for removing Trump in the upper chamber,” reports The Washington Post, which based its account on talks with “several Democratic officials.” More:

The thinking, according to these people, is that Amash would reach conservative voters in a way Democrats can’t, potentially bolstering their case to the public. He also would provide Democrats cover from GOP accusations that they’re pursuing a partisan impeachment; Amash is one of the most conservative members of the House and a vocal Trump critic.

“To the extent that this can be bipartisan, it should, and I think including Representative Amash amongst the impeachment managers is a smart move both for the country, for the substance and for the optics,” Phillips said, adding that Amash brings an array of qualifications: He’s an attorney, a constitutionalist and “the first and only member of the Republican conference, when he was a Republican, to show courage,” Phillips added.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) would ultimately make the call and is expected to announce managers early this week, multiple Democrats said. Amash did not respond to a request for comment about whether he would accept such a position. But Phillips, who is in touch with Amash about the idea, said the lawmaker has agreed to consider it if asked.

The three impeachment managers picked by Pelosi “will effectively serve as prosecutors making the case to the Senate that Trump deserves to be removed from office over his alleged misconduct centering on the Ukraine scandal,” explains Politico.

Amash has not been directly involved in the House impeachment inquiry proceedings thus far.

Last week, the House Judiciary Committee officially approved articles of impeachment accusing Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

Today, the committee released its full report, saying Trump “has realized the Framers’ worst nightmare” and “abused his power in soliciting and pressuring a vulnerable foreign nation to corrupt the next United States Presidential election by sabotaging a political opponent.”

The full House is expected to vote on the articles of impeachment on Wednesday or Thursday of this week, depending on how much time is taken up by debate.


FREE MINDS

A new ruling on Title IX, the law governing sex discrimination in public education, bodes well for rolling back government overreach. From Inside Higher Ed:

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled that Michigan State University and one of its senior administrators cannot be held liable for student victims’ emotional distress after seeing their alleged perpetrators on campus because the interactions did not lead to further sexual harassment or assault, according to an opinion issued Thursday.

Legal experts said the decision is a narrow interpretation of the protections for victims of sexual misconduct under Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, which prohibits sex discrimination, including sexual assault, on college campuses.

More from Inside Higher Ed here. Decision here.


FREE MARKETS

The Hallmark Channel ran a commercial for the wedding company Zola which featured two women getting married and kissing. It then pulled the commercial amid complaints. It has now reinstated the commercial amid more complaints. (File under: The market works better than E.U.–style advertising standards boards at sorting this stuff out.)


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Justin Amash: Impeachment Manager? Dems Want Former Republican Rep to Help Prosecute Trump

A group of Democrats in the House of Representatives reportedly wants libertarian-leaning legislator Justin Amash to be one of three impeachment managers. The Michigan congressmanwho switched his party allegiance from Republican to independent back in Julyhas been a vocal supporter of impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump while invoking nonpartisan and high-minded reasons for this support.

Now, “a group of 30 freshman Democrats, led by Rep. Dean Phillips (D–Minn.), has asked House leaders to consider [Amash] for the small group tasked with arguing its case for removing Trump in the upper chamber,” reports The Washington Post, which based its account on talks with “several Democratic officials.” More:

The thinking, according to these people, is that Amash would reach conservative voters in a way Democrats can’t, potentially bolstering their case to the public. He also would provide Democrats cover from GOP accusations that they’re pursuing a partisan impeachment; Amash is one of the most conservative members of the House and a vocal Trump critic.

“To the extent that this can be bipartisan, it should, and I think including Representative Amash amongst the impeachment managers is a smart move both for the country, for the substance and for the optics,” Phillips said, adding that Amash brings an array of qualifications: He’s an attorney, a constitutionalist and “the first and only member of the Republican conference, when he was a Republican, to show courage,” Phillips added.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) would ultimately make the call and is expected to announce managers early this week, multiple Democrats said. Amash did not respond to a request for comment about whether he would accept such a position. But Phillips, who is in touch with Amash about the idea, said the lawmaker has agreed to consider it if asked.

The three impeachment managers picked by Pelosi “will effectively serve as prosecutors making the case to the Senate that Trump deserves to be removed from office over his alleged misconduct centering on the Ukraine scandal,” explains Politico.

Amash has not been directly involved in the House impeachment inquiry proceedings thus far.

Last week, the House Judiciary Committee officially approved articles of impeachment accusing Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

Today, the committee released its full report, saying Trump “has realized the Framers’ worst nightmare” and “abused his power in soliciting and pressuring a vulnerable foreign nation to corrupt the next United States Presidential election by sabotaging a political opponent.”

The full House is expected to vote on the articles of impeachment on Wednesday or Thursday of this week, depending on how much time is taken up by debate.


FREE MINDS

A new ruling on Title IX, the law governing sex discrimination in public education, bodes well for rolling back government overreach. From Inside Higher Ed:

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled that Michigan State University and one of its senior administrators cannot be held liable for student victims’ emotional distress after seeing their alleged perpetrators on campus because the interactions did not lead to further sexual harassment or assault, according to an opinion issued Thursday.

Legal experts said the decision is a narrow interpretation of the protections for victims of sexual misconduct under Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, which prohibits sex discrimination, including sexual assault, on college campuses.

More from Inside Higher Ed here. Decision here.


FREE MARKETS

The Hallmark Channel ran a commercial for the wedding company Zola which featured two women getting married and kissing. It then pulled the commercial amid complaints. It has now reinstated the commercial amid more complaints. (File under: The market works better than E.U.–style advertising standards boards at sorting this stuff out.)


QUICK HITS

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Europe’s Largest Appliance Maker Electrolux Takes Big Hit Amid US Factory Overhaul

Europe’s Largest Appliance Maker Electrolux Takes Big Hit Amid US Factory Overhaul

Europe’s largest appliance maker Electrolux AB warned on Sunday night that its North American segment would incur costs of approximately $70 million, up from an earlier estimate of $25 million, reported Bloomberg.

Electrolux is moving its manufacturing plant from St Cloud, Minnesota, to Anderson, South Carolina. The company is investing approximately $250 million in automation and digitalization of the new facility.

The transition has resulted in “temporary capacity constraints, affecting deliveries to some customers in the fourth quarter,” the Swedish appliance maker said.

The upgrade has also led to a $70 million loss in Q4 for operating income compared with a previous estimate of $25 million.

“As a result of this, as well as of increased costs, the transition is now expected to have a larger impact on operating income in the fourth quarter than the approximately $25 million communicated previously.”

As a result of the drop in operating income and de-stocking at warehouses for US customers, shares in Electrolux plunged 12% in Stockholm on Monday.

Electrolux CEO Jonas Samuelson told investors during a call that at least half of the $70 million impact on Q4 operating income comes from capacity constraints at Anderson facility.

Samuelson said the rest of the negative impacts come from accounting adjustments and destocking at a “very large customer.” 

Bloomberg notes that the surprise loss in operating income comes days after the head of Electrolux’s North American unit resigned.

“Several issues have gone wrong in the quarter that the company did not know anything about ahead of the quarter, which is alarming,” DNB analyst Christer Magnergard said in a note. “We see a clear risk that weak performance can continue to impact earnings throughout the first half of 2020.”

The company expected to see cost savings in 2020, has now been pushed out to 2021. The new South Carolina plant could save the company upwards of $372 million of annual cost savings, with full effect after 2024.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 12/16/2019 – 09:40

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A Great Deal Of Nonsense

A Great Deal Of Nonsense

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

A US-China trade deal was announced to chaotic fanfare late Friday Asian time – and we are sceptical. First, we still don’t have details other than that December tariffs were postponed by both sides, the 15% US tariffs imposed on 1 September are to be reduced to 7.5% as a sign of goodwill, and the 25% tariffs on USD250bn stay in place. Second, we aren’t going to get a signing ceremony between the US and Chinese leaders, which does not send an encouraging signal. And third, what we see is close to the terms we previously criticized for being unrealistic in reports such as ‘A Great Deal of Nonsense” and “LOL-A-PLAZA”.

The US Trade Representative (USTR) says the final text of the phase one agreement is still being finalised, and he will sign it early next year for a likely incept date of end-January 2020. The areas covered include: Intellectual Property (IP); Technology Transfer; Agriculture; Financial Services; Currency; Expanding Trade; and Dispute Resolution. Each of these promises much…and yet potentially delivers little.

China has pledged to address issues of geographical indications, trademarks, and enforcement against pirated and counterfeit goods. That’s just after a Chinese court ruled that Japanese retailer Muji doesn’t own its own name in China and a local rival started years afterwards does. Enforcement matters, not promises: more on that in a moment.

China has agreed to end forcing or pressuring foreign companies to transfer their tech as a condition for obtaining market access or administrative approvals. Again, enforcement is all that matters here. China also “commits to refrain from directing or supporting outbound investments aimed at acquiring foreign technology pursuant to industrial plans that create distortion.” That is China’s reason for outbound investment! For example, Sweden’s Defence Research Agency just released a detailed survey of Chinese corporate acquisitions in their country showing at least half are correlated with the “Made in China 20205” plan.

China will “support a dramatic expansion of US food, agriculture and seafood product exports, with the USTR stating the target is to jump to USD40bn in 2020, a USD16bn increase over the pre-trade war level of USD24bn, and to aim for USD50bn. Part of that reflects China’s decimated pork herd, so is hardly a concession. Yet it is hard to conceive of how the total figure can be achieved without China using the US to displace agri imports from other nations, e.g., Argentinean and Brazilian soy, and perhaps Aussie and Kiwi farm goods. That also increases China’s economic exposure to the US at a time of rising geopolitical tensions between the two (see news of the US’ secret expulsion of two Chinese diplomats), and US’ farmers exposure to China in kind. For its part, the Chinese press are not mentioning these US hard targets, and are talking about WTO trading terms, which bodes poorly.

The financial services chapter pledges China to an opening up already underway as it searches for new sources of USD inflows, so again is not a concession. Interestingly, it also says US ratings agencies will get access – which will be fun given the evident credit stresses emerging in China just as US banks will be trying to sell China as an investment destination. .

On currency the US is requiring “high-standard commitments” to refrain from competitive devaluations and targeting of exchange rates. Everyone knows the CNY is not freely-traded – but also that China is doing its best to prop it up, not to try to push it lower. The key message is CNY is not going to be allowed to do what it ought to be doing, i.e., weakening, as China is pledging new fiscal stimulus in 2020 that will decrease its external surplus. That runs counter to market forces, and smacks of a kind of Plaza Accord. Of course, as long as this US-China agreement holds that might be sustainable due to the promised higher capital inflows…

…except the expanding trade chapter implies the opposite. The USTR says China is pledging to boost its 2020 imports of US goods and services by USD100bn over the level in 2017, and by USD100bn again in 2021, for a total increase of USD200bn. Given 2017 was pre-trade war and US exports to China dropped off a cliff in 2019, this means around a 110% y/y increase in purchases in 2020 – and agri is only a portion of that. The problems should be obvious. How can a slowing Chinese economy (imports are down y/y from most sources), see this kind of increase without substituting US for world exports or local goods? How can a China with a USD liquidity shortage serious enough to be driving said lowered import bill, and ‘1USD-in/1USD-out’ de facto capital controls, cope with the net reduction on the trade side? As of November, the 12-month rolling Chinese global trade surplus with the US it was USD330bn and globally was USD440bn. We are talking about reducing that US figure by 2/3 and the global total by 1/2!

Which brings us to the last chapter: Dispute Resolution. Getting China to comply is far harder than getting it to sign. The USTR notes the agreement “establishes strong procedures for addressing disputes related to the agreement and allows each party to take proportionate responsive actions that it deems appropriate.” In other words, each side can unilaterally do what they want when they want! So much for the unilateral US control of the process.

So how to see this in summary? The reduction in tariffs from 15% to 7.5% is a positive, albeit far less than the Wall Street Journal had promised. (NB, the USTR took the extraordinary step of publicly chastising the WSJ journalists who wrote that story – regular readers may recall I have also called them out more than once in the past.) Indeed, if China really has agreed to all that is stated here then further incremental tariff rollbacks can be seen – though the USTR has said the 25% tariffs will stay as collateral for a phase two deal that nobody really expects to happen. Yet the terms of this phase one still seem to be A Great Deal of Nonsense. How can China stop buying foreign tech? How can it buy as much US stuff as pledged? How can it do so and not undermine the WTO? How can it do so and not weaken CNY? And how can it do so with a strong CNY without increasing its USD debts, its strategic reliance on the USD, and to US goods? In short, if China does as the USTR claims, the US is a huge winner here (and there are lots of losers); if China does not comply with what look an impossible import targets, then the US can frame China as the bad guy and the tariffs can go back up again. Arguably, the question is not if that will happen, but when.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 12/16/2019 – 09:25

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A Few More Thoughts On Impeachment

I am grateful for Orin Kerr’s response to my post on impeachment. Years ago, it was fairly common for law professors to respond to each other on legal blogs. In recent years, this sort of discourse has tended to wither away. I largely blame Twitter, which promotes instant, rapid-fire responses. These sorts of exchanges are seldom constructive, and quickly devolve into time-wasting flame wars. People reinforce those they agree with, and drag those they disagree with. We can do better. Orin does better. He disagrees with me, quite vigorously, but does so with reasoned discourse. Thanks Orin. Indeed, I sent Orin two drafts draft of this post in advance to hear his thoughts, and happily incorporated his feedback.

I think our positions are closer than they may appear. First, let me clear up a few points. I do not think an act must be criminal for it to be impeachable. I do not think the enumerated constitutional standards of criminal procedure extend to the impeachment process. There are some norms of due process that ought to be complied with but the strictures of the 5th and 6th Amendments are not controlling.  I do not think that an article of impeachment based on “abuse of power” is void because that term is vague. Nor do I think that the term “abuse of power” is novel, or without precedent. Historically, there have been many articles of impeachment that use that phrase. In short, an article of impeachment premised on an “abuse of power” could be proper, as an original matter, even if the President was not on notice in advance of the precise contours of the offense. I also concur with co-blogger Jon Adler: the term “High Crimes and Misdemeanors” is not an inkblot. And, as far as my research suggests, the first article of impeachment is consistent with that original meaning. 

I hesitate only slightly here because under the Framers’ design, the propriety of an article also turns, at least in part, on policy considerations. The decision to impeach does not depend solely on whether the President’s conduct rose to the level of a high crime or misdemeanor. The decision to impeach, like all decisions to prosecute, is premised on other factors beyond whether the specific elements of the offense were satisfied. In other words, not all impeachable offenses must lead to articles of impeachment (Several of the law professors who testified suggested that the word “shall” in the Impeachment Clause imposes a duty to impeach whenever the President commits such a high crime or misdemeanor. I do not think the word “shall” had such a mandatory meaning at the time of the framing.) Members of the Judiciary committee sued the President more than two years ago for violating the Foreign Emoluments Clause, but opted not to bring such an article of impeachment. Certain pragmatic considerations enter into any decision about whether to impeach.

Another important consideration concerns what precedent will be established. And precedent, not original meaning, was the focus on my earlier writing. I worry about the precedent that will be set by an article based on an “abuse of power.” There are several policy reasons to pause before proceeding down this route. First, an offense defined only after the act fails to provide the accused with any notice of possible wrongdoing. Second, the accused can then charge, perhaps rightfully, that this offense was synthesized with the purpose of simply getting him. Third, members of the public can believe, perhaps rightfully, that the impeachment proceeding is merely a political attack, rather than any process grounded in established law. This argument isn’t precisely premised on the prohibition of ex post facto laws or bills of attainder, but it has similar backing: the House determined that the President’s conduct was an “abuse of power” after he engaged in it. None of these concerns exist when impeachment is tied to a pre-existing, well understood offense. If the House managers wanted to follow that path, they could have included a free-standing bribery charge or a free-standing charge that he intentionally and unlawfully sought to withhold appropriated funds from Ukraine, or both.

These dynamics accordingly create additional burdens that the House must satisfy to substantiate an article based on an “abuse of power” standard, where there are no underlying criminal allegations. And this additional burden occasions certain risks to the process itself. Stephen Griffin articulated this premise on Balkinization:

The articles of impeachment submitted today are arguably the first in American history not to be grounded ultimately in allegations that the president committed a federal crime or other violation of law.  This single fact creates unique opportunities and challenges for both parties going forward.  For Democrats, it means they do not have to worry about whether the established facts satisfy the technicalities of a crime such as bribery or obstruction of justice.  For Republicans, it creates the opportunity to respond by demanding clear criteria for the somewhat abstract offense of “abuse of power.” For example, haven’t all presidents abused their power to some extent?  Democrats have the corresponding challenge of defending their criteria as specific and arguing that Trump is different from past presidents. They go some distance toward doing this in the first article by referring to “the integrity of the United States democratic process.”

The precise novelty of this claim might be nuanced, but the Johnson, Nixon, and Johnson articles all alleged specific violations of law. It is far easier to persuade the public that an article of impeachment is proper, if the claim is based on a well-worn criminal violation that is routinely prosecuted or which has supplied the basis for prior successful impeachments. That is, a crime that has elements and requirements that have been liquidated by judicial, as well as congressional precedent. The public is familiar with the elements of bribery and obstruction of justice. For example, the Mueller report spent considerable time developing each of the three elements of obstruction, when deciding whether the President ran afoul of the law. (Ultimately, Special Counsel Mueller did not make any recommendation.) This approach relies on established law and puts would-be wrongdoers on notice. Such precision is a long-standing feature, not a bug, of how the impeachment process has been carried out to date. In contrast, the House has launched an impeachment based on a newly crafted-political “crime.” 

But here, we are left with an allegation of “abuse of power.” Persuading the public that these allegations rise to the standard of a high crime or misdemeanor, in theory at least, is more difficult than persuading the public that one of the two enumerated offenses (i.e., bribery and treason) is a high crime or a misdemeanor. I say in theory, because at this juncture, I doubt there are many minds that are not yet made up. But Griffin’s point stands: there are additional challenges, and risks by going down the road suggested by the House majority. And this sort of article departs from modern, if not all prior impeachment practice. The burden to justify this expansion rests with those advancing the articles, not those defending against them.

A recent article in the New York Times highlights how opponents of impeachment can view the “abuse of power” allegation as merely political:

Yet Republicans view the current episode through the opposite lens, saying that the Republican-led impeachment of Mr. Clinton was fully justified while the action against Mr. Trump is purely political and unsupported by the evidence.
“President Clinton committed a crime, perjury,” Representative Steve Chabot, an Ohio Republican who voted to impeach Mr. Clinton in 1998, said Thursday as the House Judiciary Committee drafted articles of impeachment against the president. “This president isn’t even accused of committing a crime.” . . . .

On Thursday, Representative Kelly Armstrong, Republican of North Dakota, recited a litany of past presidents of both parties who had drawn charges of abusing their power but were not impeached, and cautioned his colleagues that impeachment was becoming “the new normal.”

“In the history of our country, the party who is not in the White House has accused the White House of abuse of power,” Mr. Armstrong said. “It started 200 years ago, it will continue into the future, except now, congratulations, it will be impeachment every single time one party controls the House of Representatives and the other party is in the White House.”

I developed this theme in an Atlantic essay:

The Senate is heading into uncharted territory. Once articles of impeachment are completely decoupled from any clearly articulated offenses, the burden of charging a president with “abuse of power” is significantly reduced. Moreover, any president who refuses to comply with what he sees as an improper investigation can be charged with “obstruction of Congress.” This one-two punch can be drafted with far greater ease than were the articles of impeachment presented against Presidents Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, or Bill Clinton. Without question, Congress can convict a president for conduct that is not criminal. This process is not bound by the strictures of the United States code. Moreover, Congress can begin impeachment proceedings for conduct that is inconsistent with the president’s duty to faithfully execute the laws. This inquiry, though subjective, is a necessary feature of the American constitutional order. But the predicates of the Trump articles will set a dangerous precedent, as impeachment might become—regrettably—a common, quadrennial feature of our polity.

I think the standards set by the House’s proposed articles will make impeachment far easier, even in cases where the allegations are far less severe. 

Finally, a brief comment on the President’s alleged motives. The House report concluded that “Impeachable abuse of power can take two basic forms.” The articles have not alleged the first path: that the President’s exercise of authority “exceeds the President’s constitutional authority or violates legal limits on that authority.” The articles could have predicated conviction on Trump having violated either the statute authorizing military aid to the Ukraine or the Impoundment Control Act of 1974, but didn’t. The articles could have predicated conviction on Trump committing all of the traditional elements of bribery–an offense spelled out in the Constitution–but didn’t. The House impeachers have publicly framed the article as “abuse of power.” 

I flag an issue that does give me some pause. Despite not leading with an article based on bribery, the article references bribery and unlawfully conditioning an appropriation. It is not clear to me, at least, whether the House intended to include a separate claim of bribery, or whether the allegation of bribery is offered as evidence that there is an abuse of power. It is also not clear to me whether the conditioning of an appropriation is unlawful, or if that act is offered as evidence of abuse of power. What exactly are the charges against the President? If the bribery charge or unlawful conditioning claims cannot be substantiated, independently, on what basis can the abuse of power claim be substantiated? In other words, if we are really talking about bribery or a statutory violation, why did the House use the framing of “abuse of power.” I think the House is trying to have their cake, and eat it too. That is, they’re trying to avoid charging the President with a specific crime that may be difficult to convict, but still accusing the President of committing those crimes. An acquittal in the Senate would not necessarily acquit the President of the alleged conduct, because it was never precisely charged.

In this first category–where the President’s exercise of authority “exceeds the President’s constitutional authority or violates legal limits on that authority”–the President’s motives are irrelevant. Additionally, these offenses are well-defined. The President, and everyone else, is on fair notice that such acts could give rise to impeachment. There can be no reasonable claim that the offense was only defined after the fact. For example, the general thrust of my criticism would not be relevant if the House included an article premised on bribery. I doubt the technical elements of the offense could be satisfied. But there is absence of notice; allegations about unfairness fade. 

The House, however, chose the second path: the articles alleged that the President “engag[ed] in potentially permissible acts but for forbidden reasons (e.g., with the corrupt motive of obtaining a personal political benefit).” It is commonplace for Presidents to ask foreign governments to conduct investigations. What renders this request different, the articles contend, is that the object of that investigation was to injure the President’s political rival. And impeachment will turn on an assessment of the President’s motive. A corrupt motive would, according to the proponents of impeachment, transform a “permissible act” into an “abuse of power.” Effectively, they contend that otherwise legitimate presidential actions taken with a corrupt motive are, by definition, not faithful executions of the law. (I discussed that theory here.) The article now turns on what was in Trump’s head. If he had proper motivations, then there was no impeachable offense. Such an article sets an important, and risky new precedent: going forward, I fear that many presidential actions with potential consequences to the party not in the White House will be seen as corruptly motivated, and thus subject to impeachment. 

There are some other areas of difference between Orin and me, but I will leave it here for now. 

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Europe’s Economy Records Worst Quarter Since 2013, Slowing To Persist Into 2020 

Europe’s Economy Records Worst Quarter Since 2013, Slowing To Persist Into 2020 

The Eurozone economy continues to stumble into December, recording one of the weakest paces of growth since 2H13. Employment has plunged to a five-year low, and a manufacturing recession continues to disrupt the region. Though the service sector has been resilient during the economic deceleration, the loss of momentum in overall growth could signal more slowing ahead.

IHS Markit’s Composite Purchasing Managers index printed at 50.6 in December, missing estimates of 50.7. The print, barely above 50, has been sliding since early 2018, now at a level where the region exited a double-dip recession in 2H13.

Commenting on the slumping Eurozone PMI is Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The Eurozone economy closes out 2019 mired in its worst spell since 2013, with businesses struggling against the headwinds of near-stagnant demand and gloomy prospects for the year ahead. “The economy has been stuck in crawler gear for fourth straight months, with the PMI indicative of GDP growing at a quarterly rate of just 0.1%.”

“There are scant signs of any imminent improvement. New order growth remains largely stalled and job creation has almost ground to a halt, down to its lowest for over five years as companies seek to reduce overheads in the weak trading environment and uncertain outlook.”

“While service sector growth remains encouragingly resilient in the face of the manufacturing downturn, any further softening of the labour market could cause weakness to spill over.”

“Germany’s steep manufacturing downturn has added to the chance of its economy contracting slightly in the fourth quarter, but France is enjoying a more resilient performance, providing a key area of support to help keep the eurozone growing.”

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) warned about the challenging outlook for Europe into 2020.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said Europe shows signs of stabilization and downside risks are “somewhat less pronounced.”

IHS Markit’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output index printed 45.9 for December, continuing to decelerate from a 47.4 print in the prior month. This month’s print is at the lowest level in 86 months.

The epicenter of the manufacturing recession is in Germany. Factory production recently dropped at one of the fastest rates since 2012.

Outside of Germany, Markit data from U.K. manufacturing production for December dropped to the lowest level in seven years.

“Brexit-related uncertainty intensified in the lead up to the general election,” Williamson said. “Firms hope that the election will bring clarity.”

Europe’s continued slowdown could discredit the “green shoots” narrative that global equity markets have already priced in. Central banks are plowing in records amount of liquidity into the system to produce a synchronized recovery – though monetary policy has become less effective than ever before as the global economy is out of sync.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 12/16/2019 – 09:10

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Starbucks Apologizes After 2 More California Cops Were Refused Service

Starbucks Apologizes After 2 More California Cops Were Refused Service

Authored by Paula Liu via The Epoch Times,

Starbucks apologized for an incident that happened on Dec. 12, where two Californian police officers were denied service, according to multiple reports.

The incident happened at a Starbucks located in Riverside, according to a tweet from the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department. In the tweet, the Sheriff’s Department wrote, “we are aware of the ‘cop with no coffee’ incident that occurred in Riverside on 12/12/19 involving our @RSO deputies. We are in communication with [Starbucks] Corporate addressing the issue of deputies being denied service.”

The Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was also made aware of the incident, and in a tweet regarding the incident, he wrote, “Two of our deputies were refused service at Starbucks. The anti-police culture repeatedly displayed by Starbucks employees must end.”

According to the Los Angeles Times, the police officers stood at the ordering counter and were ignored for five minutes; after a long wait, the police officers left the establishment.

A spokesperson for Starbucks, Reggie Borges, apologized for the treatment of the two deputies, according to a statement, Los Angeles Times reported. According to the statement, he said:

“there is simply no excuse for how two Riverside deputies were ignored for nearly 5 minutes at our store on [the evening of Dec. 12]. We take full responsibility for any intentional or unintentional disrespect shown to law enforcement on whom we depend on every day to keep our stores and communities safe.”

According to the statement, Borges also said that Starbucks was very sorry for the incident and have reached out to the two deputies who were affected and apologized directly to them, ABC 7 News reported.

The news outlet also reported that the employees in question would not be working while the investigation into the incident is being conducted, and the company will be taking the “appropriate steps” into resolving this problem.

According to Business Insider, this wasn’t the first time police officers were refused service. Back in July 2019, six police officers entered a Starbucks in Tempe, Arizona. They were asked to leave by one of the baristas after a customer complained about not feeling safe in the presence of police officers.

Following this incident, Rossann Williams, the Starbucks Executive Vice President, released an apology to the police department, which stated that the officers “should have been welcomed and treated with dignity and the utmost respect by our [employees],” according to Business Insider.

Just four months later, on Thanksgiving in November 2019, another incident occurred. Officers were picking up their coffees but were appalled to see the word “pig,” written each of the five cups, according to Business Insider.

Again, Starbucks issued another apology following the November incident, saying that the actions were “absolutely unacceptable.”


Tyler Durden

Mon, 12/16/2019 – 08:58

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