Cascend: “This Is The Most Important Chart Of The 2020 Election”

By Eric Ross, Chief Investment Strategist at Cascend.com

This is the most important chart of the 2020 election:

• Trump starts with a less-stable base
• But 216 of 535 Electoral College votes are too close to call
• Let that sink in: 40% of Electoral College votes appear too close to conclusively call as of today
• Even if we assume that states with only a 2% or greater spread are set, 66 Electoral College votes are up-for-grabs
• 2% spread is well within margins of error – it’s really a toss-up
• Sentiment analysis suggests Biden may squeak by
• But swing states are really toss-ups and targeted action can drastically change this race

This is the same data, but as the complete form which suits data scientists and investors best: our Electoral College daily probability heat map

• It is a very clear way to see the daily changes in election probabilities, particularly how major events change the probability landscape and which states cause the changes
• Each of the columns is a day (ending October 18th)
• Each row is a state, with the height of the state’s row/cells determined by the relative number of electoral votes (i.e. California’s row height is much higher than Maine)
• This gives an easy visual reading for Electoral College voting likelihood
• Blue for Biden, Red for Trump
• The color intensity is based on the win/lose spread – white is “undecided” (exactly 50/50)
• You can easily see how events in the 2020 election impact daily voter sentiment for the two candidates
• Data is based on our consumer sentiment technology

An increasing number of states are now swing states (and will decide this election)

• Florida (2.9% to Trump)
• Pennsylvania (+1.8% to Trump)
• Georgia (+0.4% to Trump)

But…

• Arizona (+0.2% to Biden)
• North Carolina (+0.1 to Biden)
• Michigan (+1.4% to Biden)
• New Hampshire (+1.6% to Biden)
• Minnesota (2.0% to Biden)
• South Carolina (2.2% to Biden)
• Nevada (2.4% to Biden)
• Maine (2.6% to Biden)
• Wisconsin (2.7% to Biden)

….it’s really a complete toss-up

Florida is trending toward Trump

Pennsylvania is trending toward Trump

Biden has a small advantage in Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Minnesota

New Hampshire

North Carolina

Wisconsin

There is clearly an issue with the efficacy of traditional polling for U.S. Presidential elections

• The majority of polls in 2016 widely favored Hillary Clinton to win by a significant margin
• Virtually every poll also failed to predict Brexit and the UK general election
• One issue is that traditional polls generally capture “positive” support, whereas much of these elections have been driven by negative sentiment
• There were clearly many voters who were not polled, and may not be discussing their preferences openly
• We see 2020 as similar (in polling efficacy)
• Virtually every major poll out there suggests Biden is far ahead and a landslide is likely: Does our  heat map or analysis above suggest a landslide win to you?

Our methodology is very different from a traditional pollster:

• We utilize our proprietary consumer demand sentiment technology to elucidate trends in specific interests, much as we would measure brand activity
• In 2016 our models suggested an 80% chance that Donald Trump would win the general election versus Hillary Clinton
• Our models currently predict a much tighter race than in 2020
• However, the spreads are tighter in key states and public opinion is far more volatile in 2020 than in 2016