Key Events This Week: Data Deluge And Fed Speaker Bonanza

Key Events This Week: Data Deluge And Fed Speaker Bonanza

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/16/2020 – 09:21

With earnings season largely over, it doesn’t look like the busiest week on paper ahead after a hectic last two, however, markets will be busy digesting the latest vaccine news from Moderna, and waiting for additional news from AstraZeneca, while waiting to also hear if the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine gets FDA emergency use approval later in the week.

With politics now largely in the rearview mirror, except for the neverending Brexit negotiations which nobody cares about any more, DB’s Jim Reid writes that on the data side, the US will release a large amount of hard data for October this week, including retail sales, industrial production (both tomorrow), housing starts and building permits (Wednesday). The more timely weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday will also be watched, having fallen to a post-pandemic low of 709k in the most recent data for the week through November 7.

On the central bank front, we’ll hear from a number of speakers including ECB President Lagarde (today), Bank of England Governor Bailey (tomorrow) and Fed Vice Chair Clarida (today). The main policy decisions will be coming from emerging markets, however, including the Central Bank of Turkey, the South African Reserve Bank and Bank Indonesia, who are all announcing their decisions on Thursday.

Lastly, earnings season is nearly over, with around 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported now. Around 84% have reported a positive surprise on earnings and 72% have reported a positive surprise on sales. The coming week sees a further 12 S&P 500 companies report, along with a further 31 from the STOXX 600. Among the highlights are Vodafone today, before we get Walmart, Home Depot, Experian and EasyJet tomorrow. Then on Wednesday, reports include Nvidia, Lowe’s, Target and TJX, before Thursday sees Intuit report.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Below is a day by day calendar of events, courtesy of Deutsche Bank:

Monday November 16

  • Data: China October retail sales, industrial production, Japan final September industrial production, Canada September manufacturing sales, US November Empire State manufacturing survey
  • Central Banks: ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, Centeno, Mersch, Fed’s Clarida and BoE’s Haskel speak
  • Earnings: Vodafone

Tuesday November 17

  • Data: Canada October housing starts, US October retail sales, import price index, industrial production, capacity utilisation, November NAHB housing market index, September foreign net transactions, Japan October trade balance (23:50 UK time)
  • Central Banks: BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Fed’s Bostic, Daly, Kashkari and Rosengren speak
  • Earnings: Walmart, Home Depot, Experian, EasyJet

Wednesday November 18

  • Data: UK October CPI, EU27 October new car registrations, Euro Area final October CPI, US weekly MBA mortgage applications, October building permits, housing starts, Canada October CPI
  • Central Banks: BoE’s Haldane, Fed’s Williams, Bullard and Kaplan speak
  • Earnings: Nvidia, Lowe’s, Target, TJX

Thursday November 19

  • Data: US weekly initial jobless claims, November Philadelphia Fed business outlook, October leading index, existing home sales, November Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, Japan nationwide CPI (23:30 UK time)
  • Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from Bank Indonesia, Central Bank of Turkey and South African Reserve Bank, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel and Villeroy, Fed’s Bostic speak
  • Earnings: Intuit
  • Politics: EU leaders hold video conference

Friday November 20

  • Data: Japan flash November manufacturing, services and composite PMIs, UK November GfK consumer confidence, October public sector net borrowing, retail sales, Germany October PPI, Canada September retail sales, Euro Area advance November consumer confidence
  • Central Banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Kaplan and George speak

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Tuesday and the jobless claims report on Thursday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including Vice Chair Clarida on Monday.  Below is a complete recap of key US events and expectations, courtesy of Goldman:

Monday, November 16

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, November (consensus +13.8, last +10.5)
  • 11:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at a virtual conference on building a financial system for a more inclusive economy co-hosted by the San Francisco Fed. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 02:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Clarida (FOMC voter): Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida will take part in an online discussion hosted by the Brookings Institution. Prepared text and a moderated Q&A are expected.

Tuesday, November 17

  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, October (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.9%); Retail sales ex-auto, October (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.5%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, October (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.5%); Core retail sales, October (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.4%): We estimate that core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) increased by 0.7% in October (mom sa). Our forecast reflects further firming in credit card and other high-frequency data, a continued boost from the disbursement of the $300 supplemental unemployment benefit, and an increase in the non-store category from Amazon Prime Day. We also expect another gain in restaurant spending, and we estimate a +0.7% increase in the headline and a +0.8% increase in the ex-auto measure.
  • 08:30 AM Import price index, October (consensus flat, last +0.3%)
  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, October (GS +0.8%, consensus +1.0%, last -0.6%); Manufacturing production, October (GS +0.8%, consensus +1.0%, last -0.3%); Capacity utilization, October (GS 72.1%, consensus 72.3%, last 71.5%): We estimate industrial production rose by 0.8% in October, reflecting stronger utilities and mining production but weaker auto manufacturing production. We estimate capacity utilization rose by 0.6pp to 72.1%.
  • 10:00 AM Business inventories, September (consensus +0.6%, last +0.3%)
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, November (consensus 85, last 85)
  • 03:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter), San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter), Minnesota Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter), and Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will take part in a virtual conference on racism and the economy hosted by their four banks.
  • 03:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will discuss the economy in a webinar hosted by the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce.

Wednesday, November 18

  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, October (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.8%, last +1.9%); Building permits, October (consensus +1.4%, last +4.7%): We estimate housing starts rose +3.0% in October. Our forecast incorporates a continued boost from lower mortgage rates and faster construction job growth.
  • 12:15 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a webinar hosted by the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing.
  • 01:20 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy in a webinar hosted by the rotary Club of Hot Springs National Park. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 06:00 PM Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will moderate a virtual discussion hosted by the Dallas Fed.
  • 07:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in a Fed-hosted webinar about how diverse perspectives improves economics. Audience Q&A is expected.

Thursday, November 19

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 14 (GS 715k, consensus 705k, last 709k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 7 (consensus 6,350k, last 6,786k): We estimate initial jobless claims increased to 715k in the week ended November 14.
  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, November (GS 24.0, consensus 22.0, last 32.3): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined by 8.3pt to 24.0 in November, reflecting moderation following a sharp increase in October.
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, October (GS +2.0%, consensus -1.4%, last +9.4%): We estimate that existing home sales increased 2.0% further in October after increasing by 9.4% in September. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, November (last +13)

Friday, November 20

  • 08:30 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks; Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will give a speech at a conference on energy and the economy co-hosted by the Dallas Fed and the Kansas City Fed.
  • 09:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speak; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss building solutions for mobility and growth in a webinar hosted by Chamber RVA.
  • 01:30 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speak; Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech at a conference on energy and the economy co-hosted by the Dallas Fed and the Kansas City Fed.

Source: Deutsche Bank, BofA, Goldman

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3lA3E2k Tyler Durden

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