Short Circuit: A Roundup of Recent Federal Court Decisions

Please enjoy the latest edition of Short Circuit, a weekly feature from the Institute for Justice.

New on the Short Circuit podcast: cert petitions, a prison shank public records request, and an arrest for being a smart mouth. Click here for iTunes.

  • For years, scientists could serve on EPA advisory committees while also receiving EPA grants. In 2017, the EPA put a stop to that. A group of scientists sues. Scientists: By excluding the many scientists who rely on agency grants, the EPA has ensured that an uneven number of advisory committee members now hail from regulated industries. That violates the Federal Advisory Committee Act. EPA: The courts can’t review any of the scientists’ claims. First Circuit: Yes we can. The case can proceed.
  • The feds give out grants to state and local law enforcement under a program called the Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant Program. May the attorney general withhold grants from so-called sanctuary cities and states that refuse to share information with the feds about, or allow them access to, arrested undocumented immigrants? Siding with three other circuits, the First Circuit says no. (The Second Circuit created a split last month.)
  • Somerville, Mass. police officer is forced into retirement after the dep’t learns he is nearly blind in one eye. First Circuit: Could be a violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act, among other things. In his 19 years of service, his monocular vision never seemed to have caused a problem, and, though the dep’t claims high-speed pursuits are an essential element of his job, that may or may not be true, and in any case he may be able to safely conduct such pursuits. Back to the district court for more fact-finding.
  • Public defenders sue the feds after access to their clients in Brooklyn, N.Y. prison is repeatedly denied on short notice, and, after reports that heating had failed during a period of intense cold, prison officials refuse to provide info on their clients’ well-being. District court: The defenders lack a cause of action under the Sixth Amendment; the right to counsel belongs solely to the accused. Second Circuit: Not so fast. The district court needs to give that claim, plus another about whether prison officials violated Bureau of Prisons policies on attorney-client visits, a closer look.
  • Outside the trial of a Baltimore gang leader who allegedly murdered a witness, some of the defendant’s friends hold up their cell phones near a juror. She tells the other jurors, “guys, this is really serious, they’re taking pictures of us.” The judge investigates, thinks nothing happened, and dismisses the worried juror. The remaining jurors convict. Fourth Circuit: Dismissing the worried juror was not enough. The judge must hold a hearing to decide whether other jurors were afraid of gang retaliation—and thus possibly biased against the defendant. Dissent: It was just cell phones.
  • Man is shot in the chest while handcuffed in the back seat of a cop car. He dies. Iberia Parish, La. police say he committed suicide and that they must have missed a gun when they patted him down. His family sues, and the parties settle. A judge seals the record and makes the settlement terms confidential. Fifth Circuit: No way. This is a matter of local and national concern, and the record should be opened.
  • We may have thrice said police can’t conduct Terry stops to investigate mere misdemeanors, notes the Sixth Circuit. But that was dicta; police officers can absolutely do that.
  • Allegation: When the Chicago P.D. conducts investigative stops, officers take people’s ID and won’t return it until after conducting a warrant check. A Fourth Amendment violation? Seventh Circuit: Papiere, bitte.
  • Woman is arrested at protest over Ferguson shooting, released without charge. Rather than returning the $30.97 she was carrying, Multnomah County, Ore. officials give her a debit card that has a monthly service fee (imposed five days after release), a fee for using certain ATMs (with incorrect info as to which machines incur fees), and a fee for requesting the balance of the card by check, among others. Debit card company: There are several ways she could have avoided the fees, like having the funds promptly transferred to her bank account. Ninth Circuit: Her federal law, state law, and Takings Clause claims against the company should not have been dismissed.
  • Goldwater Institute seeks FDA documents related to the approval of an investigational drug for treating Ebola. FDA: Sorry, all documents related to investigational new drugs are confidential. Ninth Circuit: Not from FOIA, they aren’t.
  • San Francisco allows owners of units in multiunit buildings to convert to condominiums if they agree to give a lifetime lease to the current occupant. Property owners apply for conversion but then decide they would rather not give the lifetime lease. They sue instead, alleging a regulatory taking. Ninth Circuit: But they failed to seek a timely exemption from the city, so their claim isn’t final under Williamson County. Dissent: Finality is about knowing how the law applies, not jumping through procedural hoops, and everyone agrees that the city will not waive the lease requirement. The case should go forward.
  • Turn to the Eleventh Circuit for a sterling opinion about a famous gold bar that, in the court’s words, “lived its best life” as a museum exhibit until it was stolen by a thief named Jared Goldman. There are Spanish galleons, The Goonies, and a holding that famous gold is worth more than its weight in gold. Which is really too bad for Goldman and another thief paying restitution. But just how much more remains to be seen. The thieves get a re-do of the sentencing court’s valuation, which may have been too high.
  • Forty-three years ago, an intellectually disabled man confessed to a murder. But newly tested evidence shows that his DNA was not on the bindings used to tie up the victim. The Georgia Supreme Court says he gets a new trial. (via @ASFleischman)
  • Woman pleads guilty to tax fraud in 2011, is sentenced to five years in prison. After getting out of prison on supervised release, she casts a vote in the 2016 election. Yikes! Texas forbids those with felony convictions whose sentences aren’t yet complete from voting, which her ballot said in its form language. She’s convicted of illegal voting, sentenced to five years in prison. Texas Court of Appeals: We can review neither the decision to prosecute nor the statute’s wisdom. Conviction affirmed.
  • And in en banc news, the Second Circuit will not reconsider its decision that the First Amendment forbids President Trump from blocking users from the “interactive space” of his Twitter account, over a dissent that contends that the fact that the president uses the account to tweet official tweets should not mean he is barred from blocking those who tweet meanly in response. (We discussed the original panel opinion on the podcast.)
  • And in more en banc news the Fifth Circuit will reconsider (on its own motion!) its decision holding that the single director structure of the CFPB was constitutional, a decision that was issued on the exact same day the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the exact same question.
  • And in additional en banc news, the Eleventh Circuit granted rehearing after Judge Newsom wrote a concurrence to his own unanimous panel opinion urging the en banc court to reconsider earlier circuit precedent regarding the interaction of (real) Article III standing and (phony baloney) Fourth Amendment standing.
  • And in further en banc news, the Federal Circuit will not reconsider its decision that (1) administrative patent judges were principal officers and thus should have been appointed by the president but that (2) with APJs’ protections against removal revoked, they are converted into inferior officers, and it no longer offends the Constitution that they were appointed by the secretary of commerce. One of the dissenters (from denial of en banc review): We should have given Congress and the agency a chance to fix the issue instead of severing the removal protections.

If the gov’t seizes tens of thousands of dollars from you and then returns all of it after you sue to get it back, did you “substantially prevail”? Last year, the Eleventh Circuit said no, thereby depriving Miladis Salgado, who was raided by the DEA after a bad tip, of the attorney’s fees necessary to make her whole. (Though the feds released all $15k they took from her, a third of it went to her attorney, who took the case on contingency.) Next week, on Friday, April 3, the Supreme Court will consider whether to grant an IJ cert petition arguing, among other things, that Miladis should indeed be awarded her attorney’s fees under the plain terms of the relevant statute. Click here to learn more.

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Challenge to L.A. Closure of Gun Stores as Part of General “Non-Essential Business” Closure

It’s Brandy v. Villanueva (C.D. Cal.), just filed today by the Second Amendment Foundation, the NRA, the California Gun Rights Foundation, and the Firearms Policy Coalition.

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Airlines Make Out Like Bandits in $2.3 Trillion Coronavirus Aid Bill

Despite the best efforts of Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.), the House of Representatives just passed the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act by a voice vote. The Senate had already approved the bill by a 96–0 vote on Wednesday, so it now goes to President Donald Trump’s desk.

That’s good news for the country’s airlines, which are set to receive roughly $60 billion in financial assistance.

That includes $32 billion in cash grants to air carriers to prevent employee layoffs, with $25 billion of that going to passenger airlines and $4 billion to cargo carriers. The bill also gives $3 billion for contract workers hired by the airlines. Passenger and cargo carriers will also be eligible for another $29 billion in government loans.

Companies that take advantage of these grants and loans are forbidden from laying off workers or cutting pay through September 30 of this year. They are also barred from buying back their own stock. Executive compensation is also capped at 2019 levels.

This is pretty much everything the industry asked for. The CEOs of 10 major air carriers, including Delta, American, and Southwest, sent a letter to congressional leaders on Saturday asking for $58 billion in aid split evenly between grants and loans.

“We applaud the Administration and the U.S. Congress for reaching agreement on bipartisan legislation intended to assist the U.S. airline industry in continuing to make payroll and protect the jobs of hardworking men and women despite devastating impacts to the industry,” declared Airlines for America chief Nicholas E. Calio in a statement after the Senate passed the bill. The unions representing pilots and flight attendants praised the stimulus package as well.

Less pleased is Robert Poole, director of transportation policy at the Reason Foundation (which publishes this website). He argues that airlines do not deserve special treatment.

“The airlines don’t have a significant claim that they are a more vital business than railroads, trucking, all sorts of things that make the economy go,” says Poole. “All the others don’t have a special program.”

This line of criticism has been echoed by a range of bipartisan voices. Reps. Justin Amash (I–Mich.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D–New York) have both criticized the CARES Act giving too much away to corporations.

Amash has argued against any direct assistance to corporations, saying all aid should be given as cash subsidies to individuals.

Poole thinks loans to businesses—provided they are given at a reasonable rate of interest—are an appropriate way to help otherwise profitable firms injured by government-enforced closures and quarantines. Loans help “separate the wheat from the chaff,” says Poole, by targeting aid at companies that actually have a chance of paying taxpayers back. Grants, he says, do a poor job of distinguishing between poorly managed companies that would be in financial difficulty anyway and competently run outfits that need only short-term liquidity to ride out the immediate crisis.

The coronavirus outbreak has radically upended American politics to an almost unthinkable degree. The near-unanimous passage of a $2.3 trillion economic assistance bill is evidence of that. But with corporate special interests extracting the lion’s share of benefits coming out of Washington, some things still feel normal.

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Short Circuit: A Roundup of Recent Federal Court Decisions

Please enjoy the latest edition of Short Circuit, a weekly feature from the Institute for Justice.

New on the Short Circuit podcast: cert petitions, a prison shank public records request, and an arrest for being a smart mouth. Click here for iTunes.

  • For years, scientists could serve on EPA advisory committees while also receiving EPA grants. In 2017, the EPA put a stop to that. A group of scientists sues. Scientists: By excluding the many scientists who rely on agency grants, the EPA has ensured that an uneven number of advisory committee members now hail from regulated industries. That violates the Federal Advisory Committee Act. EPA: The courts can’t review any of the scientists’ claims. First Circuit: Yes we can. The case can proceed.
  • The feds give out grants to state and local law enforcement under a program called the Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant Program. May the attorney general withhold grants from so-called sanctuary cities and states that refuse to share information with the feds about, or allow them access to, arrested undocumented immigrants? Siding with three other circuits, the First Circuit says no. (The Second Circuit created a split last month.)
  • Somerville, Mass. police officer is forced into retirement after the dep’t learns he is nearly blind in one eye. First Circuit: Could be a violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act, among other things. In his 19 years of service, his monocular vision never seemed to have caused a problem, and, though the dep’t claims high-speed pursuits are an essential element of his job, that may or may not be true, and in any case he may be able to safely conduct such pursuits. Back to the district court for more fact-finding.
  • Public defenders sue the feds after access to their clients in Brooklyn, N.Y. prison is repeatedly denied on short notice, and, after reports that heating had failed during a period of intense cold, prison officials refuse to provide info on their clients’ well-being. District court: The defenders lack a cause of action under the Sixth Amendment; the right to counsel belongs solely to the accused. Second Circuit: Not so fast. The district court needs to give that claim, plus another about whether prison officials violated Bureau of Prisons policies on attorney-client visits, a closer look.
  • Outside the trial of a Baltimore gang leader who allegedly murdered a witness, some of the defendant’s friends hold up their cell phones near a juror. She tells the other jurors, “guys, this is really serious, they’re taking pictures of us.” The judge investigates, thinks nothing happened, and dismisses the worried juror. The remaining jurors convict. Fourth Circuit: Dismissing the worried juror was not enough. The judge must hold a hearing to decide whether other jurors were afraid of gang retaliation—and thus possibly biased against the defendant. Dissent: It was just cell phones.
  • Man is shot in the chest while handcuffed in the back seat of a cop car. He dies. Iberia Parish, La. police say he committed suicide and that they must have missed a gun when they patted him down. His family sues, and the parties settle. A judge seals the record and makes the settlement terms confidential. Fifth Circuit: No way. This is a matter of local and national concern, and the record should be opened.
  • We may have thrice said police can’t conduct Terry stops to investigate mere misdemeanors, notes the Sixth Circuit. But that was dicta; police officers can absolutely do that.
  • Allegation: When the Chicago P.D. conducts investigative stops, officers take people’s ID and won’t return it until after conducting a warrant check. A Fourth Amendment violation? Seventh Circuit: Papiere, bitte.
  • Woman is arrested at protest over Ferguson shooting, released without charge. Rather than returning the $30.97 she was carrying, Multnomah County, Ore. officials give her a debit card that has a monthly service fee (imposed five days after release), a fee for using certain ATMs (with incorrect info as to which machines incur fees), and a fee for requesting the balance of the card by check, among others. Debit card company: There are several ways she could have avoided the fees, like having the funds promptly transferred to her bank account. Ninth Circuit: Her federal law, state law, and Takings Clause claims against the company should not have been dismissed.
  • Goldwater Institute seeks FDA documents related to the approval of an investigational drug for treating Ebola. FDA: Sorry, all documents related to investigational new drugs are confidential. Ninth Circuit: Not from FOIA, they aren’t.
  • San Francisco allows owners of units in multiunit buildings to convert to condominiums if they agree to give a lifetime lease to the current occupant. Property owners apply for conversion but then decide they would rather not give the lifetime lease. They sue instead, alleging a regulatory taking. Ninth Circuit: But they failed to seek a timely exemption from the city, so their claim isn’t final under Williamson County. Dissent: Finality is about knowing how the law applies, not jumping through procedural hoops, and everyone agrees that the city will not waive the lease requirement. The case should go forward.
  • Turn to the Eleventh Circuit for a sterling opinion about a famous gold bar that, in the court’s words, “lived its best life” as a museum exhibit until it was stolen by a thief named Jared Goldman. There are Spanish galleons, The Goonies, and a holding that famous gold is worth more than its weight in gold. Which is really too bad for Goldman and another thief paying restitution. But just how much more remains to be seen. The thieves get a re-do of the sentencing court’s valuation, which may have been too high.
  • Forty-three years ago, an intellectually disabled man confessed to a murder. But newly tested evidence shows that his DNA was not on the bindings used to tie up the victim. The Georgia Supreme Court says he gets a new trial. (via @ASFleischman)
  • Woman pleads guilty to tax fraud in 2011, is sentenced to five years in prison. After getting out of prison on supervised release, she casts a vote in the 2016 election. Yikes! Texas forbids those with felony convictions whose sentences aren’t yet complete from voting, which her ballot said in its form language. She’s convicted of illegal voting, sentenced to five years in prison. Texas Court of Appeals: We can review neither the decision to prosecute nor the statute’s wisdom. Conviction affirmed.
  • And in en banc news, the Second Circuit will not reconsider its decision that the First Amendment forbids President Trump from blocking users from the “interactive space” of his Twitter account, over a dissent that contends that the fact that the president uses the account to tweet official tweets should not mean he is barred from blocking those who tweet meanly in response. (We discussed the original panel opinion on the podcast.)
  • And in more en banc news the Fifth Circuit will reconsider (on its own motion!) its decision holding that the single director structure of the CFPB was constitutional, a decision that was issued on the exact same day the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the exact same question.
  • And in additional en banc news, the Eleventh Circuit granted rehearing after Judge Newsom wrote a concurrence to his own unanimous panel opinion urging the en banc court to reconsider earlier circuit precedent regarding the interaction of (real) Article III standing and (phony baloney) Fourth Amendment standing.
  • And in further en banc news, the Federal Circuit will not reconsider its decision that (1) administrative patent judges were principal officers and thus should have been appointed by the president but that (2) with APJs’ protections against removal revoked, they are converted into inferior officers, and it no longer offends the Constitution that they were appointed by the secretary of commerce. One of the dissenters (from denial of en banc review): We should have given Congress and the agency a chance to fix the issue instead of severing the removal protections.

If the gov’t seizes tens of thousands of dollars from you and then returns all of it after you sue to get it back, did you “substantially prevail”? Last year, the Eleventh Circuit said no, thereby depriving Miladis Salgado, who was raided by the DEA after a bad tip, of the attorney’s fees necessary to make her whole. (Though the feds released all $15k they took from her, a third of it went to her attorney, who took the case on contingency.) Next week, on Friday, April 3, the Supreme Court will consider whether to grant an IJ cert petition arguing, among other things, that Miladis should indeed be awarded her attorney’s fees under the plain terms of the relevant statute. Click here to learn more.

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Hubei Residents Riot After Quarantine Lifted; Police Beaten With Their Own Shield, Cop Cars Overturned

Hubei Residents Riot After Quarantine Lifted; Police Beaten With Their Own Shield, Cop Cars Overturned

Residents of Hubei province in China teamed up with their local police force to battle the police from neighboring Jiangxi province – who set up a roadblock on the Yangtze River Bridge to prevent the people of Hubei from crossing and returning to work.

Footage of Hubei residents overturning Jingxi police vehicles was captured and uploaded to Chinese social media – where Chinese authorities have reportedly already scrubbed it.

At one point rioters snatched a police shield and began beating Jiangxi officers with it.

This man explains the situation: 

More: 


Tyler Durden

Fri, 03/27/2020 – 15:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33O33lx Tyler Durden

It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investments,

You’ve no doubt heard about the jobless claims number. At an incomprehensible 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment for the first time, this level far exceeded the wildest expectations as the economic costs of the shutdown continue to come in far more like the worst case. And as bad as 3mm is, the real hidden number is likely much higher.

As next week’s tally will certainly be.

The dislocation is upon us, but that’s no longer our major concern. Having been left no chance to avoid one, the only issue now is how quickly we get out from under it. If 20 million American workers maybe more are dispatched to the unemployment line in the weeks ahead, how soon do we get them back to work?

Just as important, do they all get a chance to go back?

See, that’s the thing about GFC1 and its Great “Recession.” The economic chain of causation isn’t the same this time versus that last time, but there’s that whole financial crisis which is turning out to be way too similar. In the long run it was the GFC rather than the G’R’ which spoiled any chance at real recovery.

It was one of the very few things Ben Bernanke got right during his crisis tenure. In February of 2009, Senator Bob Corker asked then-Federal Reserve Chairman if we should all be worried about zombies. Would the US economy end up plagued by unproductive companies as Japan had been throughout its lost decade(s)?

No, said Bernanke. He’d fix the one thing that needed fixing the most:

If there is one message that I’d like to leave you with, if we’re going to have a strong recovery, it has got to be on the back of a stabilization of the financial system.

We can lament that it is this way until the cows come home; the sad truth is that we live in a highly financialized, globalized economy. That kind of system absolutely requires monetary and financial growth in order to function. Without it, no growth and no chance to get back to where we had been before the “subprime” dislocation.

Without a stable financial system, or even the widespread appearance of stability in it, this is what happened to the suddenly jobless:

Like the undead themselves, they disappeared from the official unemployment statistics (the denominator) because they stopped looking for work they knew didn’t actually exist and wouldn’t show up (all the while Fed policymakers called them lazy drug addicts; R*). The US (and the rest of the global) economy still hasn’t worked its way out from under the labor costs produced by GFC1 even though it happened more than a decade ago!

Thus, the prospects for a quick and complete turnaround this time continue to dim the longer and the deeper GFC2 unnecessarily binds the whole global system. If Bernanke’s failure to stem and solve GFC1 ended up costing the labor market what you see above, just how much will Powell’s GFC2 end up destroying?

The Federal Reserve has shot all its bazookas, from endless QE to unlimited “repo” operations and finally overseas dollar swaps. Doomed to failure, all of it; the dollar swaps supposedly such a big piece aimed at fixing the global part of the dollar shortage have been open and operational this whole GFC2 just like GFC1. What good were they?

Despite (or maybe because of) Jay Powell’s claims of boldness, the world’s dollar (and related collateral) problems haven’t budged. If anything, this week while stocks are bouncing (dip buyers are a determined bunch of FOMOs) the global dollar shortage goes nuclear.

Three-month LIBOR jumped more than 10 bps yesterday, while fed funds, repo, and LIBOR’s rejected replacement SOFR all went further downward; according to FRBNY, which is responsible for calculating the reject, SOFR is an outwardly pleasant 0.1%.

And that can only mean big trouble down in the shadows.

This actually explains both ends of the eurodollar futures (and yield) curve; the front of it is being sold as the market continues to expect no effective aid from the central bank – any central bank – on the monetary front. Total impotence; inelasticity is being priced for potentially months.

The long end of the curve therefore trades ahead of what will be lower and lower 3-month LIBOR further and further out into the future. That can only mean a recovery that isn’t much like one; the unnecessary further damage being done by a monetary and financial system central bankers are criminally unsuited to solve is adding up more and more to bleak, Japan-like forward prospects.

More so than the last twelve years have been!

How happy is Janet Yellen right now? She’ll be completely forgotten, her sorry tenure erased being bookended by the two bozos, history left to argue over who was worse, Bernanke or Powell. In the end, it will be Powell because he at least had Bernanke’s mistakes from which to have learned a thing or two before GFC2 was ever made a reality.

Starting with: LISTEN TO THE EURODOLLAR FUTURES MARKET!

Back last June, the curve had inverted by more than it had on August 9, 2007 – the very day GFC1 began. This market was warning the world that the global monetary situation had become so precarious, the system so frail, that it was in real danger of being pushed over the edge.

It didn’t matter that no one could have predicted the coronavirus outbreak and what governments would do in response to it; that’s not what the market was saying or focused on last year. What it might be didn’t matter. It was telling everyone that the system was in such poor shape, so incredibly fragile that any further substantially negative pressure could easily push it into a crisis.

If not COVID-19 then something else.

Like policymakers twelve years before, policymakers last year and this year won’t listen. They’ve turned 2020 into 2008literally, in the case of the monetary policy response because, quite frankly, they just don’t know what else to do.

Ben Bernanke was right, and being right only about this one thing should haunt him forever. We have to have a working monetary system, else there won’t be enough recovery momentum because there can’t be enough. The eurodollar futures market isn’t pricing the surreal surge in jobless claims, it’s trading as if Powell and Bernanke are exactly the same and therefore preparing for that part of history, the worst part, to repeat itself.

Once this thing is over, American workers need to realize, as eurodollar futures investors do, that they’re going to get back to work more slowly and, unless something meaningful changes very soon, ultimately fewer of them will.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 03/27/2020 – 15:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2QPyw18 Tyler Durden

Challenge to L.A. Closure of Gun Stores as Part of General “Non-Essential Business” Closure

It’s Brandy v. Villanueva (C.D. Cal.), just filed today by the Second Amendment Foundation, the NRA, the California Gun Rights Foundation, and the Firearms Policy Coalition.

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How Much Is $2.3 Trillion? More Than Even Obama Could Imagine

In 2009, the last time Washington aimed a trillion-dollar firehose at the distressed U.S. economy, the president, a Democrat, repeatedly coupled that act of temporary profligacy with the rhetorical aim of long-term budgetary sobriety.

“One of the central goals of this administration is restoring fiscal responsibility,” Barack Obama asserted back then. “Even as we have had to spend our way out of this recession in the near term, we’ve begun to make the hard choices necessary to get our country on a more stable fiscal footing in the long run.”

There were plenty of reasons for contemporaneous skepticism about Obama’s claims, but even insincere nods toward a presumed virtue can contribute to a mild braking on vice. Policy battles over deficits, debt ceilings, and old-age entitlements dominated national politics through the end of 2013, and not merely because of then-ornery, now-quiescent Tea Party Republicans. Erskine Bowles, after all, was a Democrat.

But the twin rise of President Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.), along with the strains of populism they channeled, chased deficit hawks to the despised corners of polite society by 2015. After that, the main questions left were how many zeroes would end up on the federal check when the next crisis inevitably hit.

George W. Bush’s Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of October 2008 came with a $700 billion price tag. Add in Obama’s $833 billion American Recovery and Reinvestmenty Act in February 2009, and we’re talking a bailout/stimulus combo of $1.53 trillion, or $1.84 trillion in 2020 dollars.

By comparison, the bipartisan stimulus that was very temporarily held up by the near-universally despised Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.), totals around $2.3 trillion, according to the bean-counters at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Even accounting for population increase (the U.S. had 307 million residents in 2009, around 331 million today), that’s an inflation-adjusted per capita increase from around $6,000 11 years ago to $6,950 today.

How much is $2.3 trillion? In nominal terms, it’s the same as the entire federal budget for Fiscal Year 2004. Adjusting for inflation gets you back to the federal government’s $1 trillion outlay for 1987. Inflation and population together take you back to 1974. In short, Congress just approved a bailout/stimulus of $6,950 per person, which is more than the $6,600 per person in constant dollars that the entire federal government spent in Richard Nixon’s final year in office.

The accumulated national debt in 1974 was $475 billion, or around $2.5 trillion in today’s money ($11,700 per U.S. resident). George W. Bush inherited we-owe-yous of $5.67 trillion (which adjusts to $8.52 trillion and $30,200 per capita), and left for Obama a present of $10 trillion ($12 trillion/$39,600). As Trump readies his black sharpie for the rescue package, the debt clock stands at $23.6 trillion ($71,300 per person)—and it was being goosed by trillion-dollar annual deficits even before COVID-19 hit the fan.

And unlike Obama in 2009, Trump doesn’t currently feel the need to even rhetorically hint at future tradeoffs. The president reportedly said in late 2018 about any future fiscal crisis: “Yeah, but I won’t be here.” Add in the likelihood of future bailouts and stimuli, and basically we’re all Modern Monetary Theorists now.

The annual budget deficit, which snapped an entire generation of conservatives into attention when it crossed the $1 trillion threshold a decade ago, is likely to top $2 trillion before the fiscal year is out. The Government Accountability Office and Congressional Budget Office were calling the country’s long-term fiscal outlook “unsustainable” back when the good times were still rolling. Now revenues are taking a massive hit, demand for government service is going through the roof, and the U.S. Mint’s going brrrrr.

Libertarians back in 2008-09 tended to make four types of predictions about the bailout/stimulus. One—that the unpredented swooshing of cash and Federal Reserve intrusion into the economy would trigger long-dormant inflation—did not come to pass, and so many policy enthusiasts have taken that as a cue to ignore libertarians.

But there were three other forward-looking objections to socializing the failures of deep-pocketed losers during the financial crisis: that the ensuing debt load would unduly dampen the eventual recovery, that failing to fix the underlying government distortions that caused malinvestments in the first place would make bailouts an eternally recurring phenomenon, and that papering over problems with money would create new, even more dangerous bubbles.

With today’s Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, Congress has cemented what we already suspected: that the federal government does not care about learning from directly relevant mistakes it made in the recent past.

There is no more politics of fiscal prudence in America, just a competition to see who can wag the biggest firehose. While the bodies begin to pile up in New York City and elsewhere, Washington has responded with a massive course of experimental economics. May we respond better than rats in a cage.

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Here Is A Breakdown Of The $12 Trillion In Global Stimulus Passed This Month

Here Is A Breakdown Of The $12 Trillion In Global Stimulus Passed This Month

A favorite phrase of Bank of America’s chief investment strategist, and certainly an accurate one, is that “Markets stop panicking when policy makers start panicking.”

Seen in this light, the only question is whether policymakers have panicked enough in response to the current coronavirus crisis which has ground the global $86 billion economy to a halt.

Addressing this question, BofA has calculated the policy response to date, calculating that so far following the “fastest crash, deleveraging, recession, policy panic in history” global policy makers have not only cut rates 65 times so far in 2020, but also pledged some $12 trillion, $7 trillion in monetary and $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus “to reduce volatility and credit spreads, allowing credit to lead vicious bear market rally.This is as the big five central banks (excluding China) have already bought $13tn of financial assets since Lehman…set to buy further $7tn this year.

Here is a recap of the big numbers so far via BofA:

  • $7tn: announced/promised global central bank liquidity to address 2020 crash & recession.
  • $5tn: announced/promised fiscal stimulus to address 2020 crash & recession (to be underwritten by central banks).
  • $13tn: Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE, SNB have already bought $13tn of financial assets since Lehman…set to buy further $7tn this year.
  • 853: central banks cut interest rates 853 times since Lehman…and 65 rate cuts in 2020.

BofA’s policy tracker puts this in context:

If markets conclude that what has been done so far is not enough BofA sees an acceleration toward YCC (Yield Curve Control), UBI (Universal Basic Income), MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), which tell BofA “not that inflation guaranteed to rise but that 2020 sees a multi-year low in inflation expectations”, even thought Deutsche Bank disagrees speculating last week that Helicopter money has set the seeds for hyperinflation.

Going back to what has already been done, here is a breakdown of the latest fiscal stimulus via Goldman:

  • Following the passage of the “Phase 3” package in the US Senate, we estimate discretionary fiscal policy will ease by around 7½% of GDP in the US this year and by 3¾% of GDP globally. Discretionary fiscal relief more than doubled this week in the UK (to 3½% of GDP), quadrupled in Australia (to 4½%) and quintupled in Germany (to 2%).
  • As US jobless claims jumped to a record high, policymakers announced further actions to maintain employment relationships, including forgivable loans to cover small business payrolls in the US and wage subsidies in the UK.

Breaking down fiscal policy responses in granular detail, here is a snapshot of DM fiscal policy by country:

The same for emerging markets:

Next, here is a summary of the key monetary policy changes in recent weeks, also via Goldman:

  • Following the 50bp BoC cut to its effective lower bound of 0.25%, most DM central banks are now believed to be at the effective lower bound and seem reluctant to take rates into negative or more negative territory, perhaps reflecting today’s focus on financial market functioning. In EMs, India cut the policy rate by 75p and Mexico cut the policy rate by 50bp.
  • Unconventional policies become more forceful this week across the Atlantic. The Fed announced uncapped asset purchases and direct support of the corporate bond market while the ECB geared up the flexibility over purchase limits and country allocations of its Pandemic Emergency QE.

Here is a chart showing the policy rate easing since the start of the year:

Breaking down monetary policy responses, here is a snapshot of recent actions taken by developed markets:

And EMs:

Finally, here is a recap of the detailed combined Policy Responses in the US, EA and China:


Tyler Durden

Fri, 03/27/2020 – 15:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33QK9KE Tyler Durden

Ginnie Mae Weighs Bailout For Servicers After Major Mortgage-Lender Slashes 70% Of Workforce

Ginnie Mae Weighs Bailout For Servicers After Major Mortgage-Lender Slashes 70% Of Workforce

Update (1500ET): A top U.S. regulator is exploring whether to throw a lifeline to mortgage servicers stressed by the coronavirus pandemic by tapping a program meant to address natural disasters.

Bloomberg reports that, in order to prepare for an expected wave of missed payments as borrowers deal with the economic fallout from the virus, officials at Ginnie Mae are considering using relief programs most often activated in the wake of hurricanes, floods and other calamities, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mortgage-industry lobbyists unsuccessfully tried to get Congress to include some sort of liquidity facility for servicers in the stimulus bill. Still, many servicers expect the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve to create a lifeline for servicers out of other money in the $2 trillion package.

*  *  *

Earlier this week, we highlighted the fact that numerous mortgage-related companies were facing considerable – and in some cases existential – crises in their day-to-day operations amid margin calls, illiquidity, and a drying up of demand for non-agency products thanks to The Fed’s intervention.

First, its was AG Mortgage Investment Trust which last Friday said it failed to meet some margin calls and doesn’t expect to be able to meet future margin calls with its current financing. Then it was TPG RE Finance Trust which also hit a liquidity wall and could not repay its lenders. Then, on Monday it was first Invesco, then ED&F Man Capital, and then  the mortgage mayhem took down MFA Financial, which stated “due to the turmoil in the financial markets resulting from the global pandemic of the COVID-19 virus, the Company and its subsidiaries have received an unusually high number of margin calls from financing counterparties, and have also experienced higher funding costs in respect of its repurchase agreements.”

And now that mortgage-mayhem has impacted one of the largest U.S. mortgage firms catering to riskier borrowers.

Earlier in the week, we mentioned Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions – which specializes in so-called non-qualified mortgages that can’t be sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac – pointing out that the company would pause all originations of loans for two weeks “due to the constant shifts and the inability to appropriately evaluate credit risk.”

And now Sreeni Prabhu, co-chief executive officer of the firm’s parent, Angel Oak Cos., is slashing 70% of the comany’s workforce (almost 200 of its 275 employees).

“The world has dramatically changed,” Prabhu said.

“We have to slow down and re-underwrite in the new world that we’re in. That’s going to take some time.”

Bloomberg reports that Angel Oak is primarily known for its riskier lending arm, which is one of the leaders in funding non-qualified mortgages. Such loans include those made to borrowers who verify their incomes with bank statements instead of tax returns and others who may have recently filed for bankruptcy or had a previous foreclosure that hurt their credit scores.

Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions funded some $3.3 billion of non-QM loans in 2019, making it one of the biggest lenders in the space. In January, Angel Oak’s mortgage units said they planned to fund more than $8 billion of home loans in 2020, but the total is now likely to be perhaps a quarter of that, Prabhu said.

The coronavirus pandemic has brought non-QM lending to a virtual standstill industrywide. Many non-QM borrowers are self-employed, making them among the hardest hit by a broad slowdown in business activity.

Citadel Servicing Corp., another top non-QM lender, said it was halting originations for 30 days, and Mega Capital Funding Inc. told brokers last week that it was suspending its programs for those mortgages “for the foreseeable future,” according to a notice seen by Bloomberg.

Add this halting of originations to the margin calls of the fund side, and it all sounds ominously similar to July 2007, when two Bear Stearns hedge funds (Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Fund and the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Enhanced Leveraged Fund) – exposed to mortgage-backed securities and various other leveraged derivatives on same – crashed and burned and started the dominoes falling…


Tyler Durden

Fri, 03/27/2020 – 14:52

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2JkEDGJ Tyler Durden