Border Patrol Deploys 100 ‘Elite’ Tactical Agents To Sanctuary Cities As Federal Immigration Crackdown Begins

Border Patrol Deploys 100 ‘Elite’ Tactical Agents To Sanctuary Cities As Federal Immigration Crackdown Begins

While the mainstream media throws a field day over President Trump’s twitter battle of wits with AG Barr and subsequent calls for the AG’s resignation

the Trump Administration is presiding over an unprecedented crackdown on sanctuary cities and the border in general. A few days ago, AG Barr announced a slate of federal lawsuits challenging sanctuary cities and states over their refusal to cooperate with federal immigration authorities.

Now, Axios, the New York Times and others are reporting the administration’s next move: Sending cadres of specially trained border agents to a handful of sanctuary cities in preparation for a “immigrant arrest operation set to begin this weekend alongside Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

The deployment will reportedly be carried out over the next few months: From February through May, at least 100 CBP officers will be sent to a group of cities including Chicago, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Houston, Boston, New Orleans, Detroit and Newark, according to the Times. Not all are considered sanctuary cities.

Some of the agents are part of an elite CBP tactical unit, according to acting ICE Director Matthew Albence, who told the NYT that the action is a response to the sanctuary cities refusal to cooperate with federal immigration authorities and hold immigration violators for deportation.

“As we have noted for years, in jurisdictions where we are not allowed to assume custody of aliens from jails, our officers are forced to make at-large arrests of criminal aliens who have been released into communities,” he said. “When sanctuary cities release these criminals back to the street, it increases the occurrence of preventable crimes, and more importantly, preventable victims.”

For those who understand the importance of enforcing immigration laws, this deployment should seem like exactly what it is: a tactical deployment to compensate for local authorities attempts to stymie federal authorities at every turn.

But we imagine open-border advocates and their network of activists will denounce the deployment as a brutal violation of human rights, that won’t do anything to make America more safe.

It’s worth noting that other recent attempts by ICE officers have been spoiled by local officials and even President Trump giving advance warnings. Since immigration authorities don’t possess the sweeping law-enforcement powers of police or the FBI, it’s more difficult for them to bring suspects into custody, and it’s a lot easier for ‘liberal do-gooders’ to help suspects avoid apprehension.

During the coming deployment, the CBP agents will be responsible for backing up the ICE agents who are authorized to carry out certain police operations within America’s borders (CBP officials typically only have the authority to detain suspects along the border).

As the NYT notes, the operation is the administration’s latest embrace of a hard-line immigration policy, and follows the firing of several officials deemed not sufficiently “tough enough” to carry it out.

Typically, ICE focuses on illegal aliens with criminal histories and violent pasts. Again, leftists try to make it seem like ICE is deporting people for routine traffic violations: Not so. The goal of the operation is to raise immigration arrests and deportations in these zones by 35%.


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 13:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2V0Btzb Tyler Durden

The Four Coronavirus Scenarios: The Bad; The Worse; The Ugly; And The Unthinkable

The Four Coronavirus Scenarios: The Bad; The Worse; The Ugly; And The Unthinkable

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Summary

  • The Covid-19 coronavirus could be more disruptive than markets are currently pricing in. Not in the least because the ‘true’ number of infected people remains uncertain, as the recent surge in cases exemplifies

  • We outline four scenarios in which the virus increasingly becomes severe: The Bad; The Worse; The Ugly; and The Unthinkable

  • We provide rough estimates for China’s growth trajectory in these scenarios although we stress that these are not our official forecasts since we are still working out the details

  • The three main channels through which Covid-19 will affect the global economy are tourism, net exports, and intermediate goods

  • In the ‘Bad’ scenario the virus outbreak does not last far beyond Q1. China’s GDP growth for 2020 could drop to below 5%, with production taking the biggest hit and a catch up in Q3 and Q4. This is our base case scenario, although with the recent surge in mind, the second scenario is becoming increasingly likely

  • In the ‘Worse’ scenario, the virus outbreak lasts beyond Q1. In that case China’s GDP growth could end up below 4% in 2020

  • In this scenario, next to China, Asia will bear the brunt of the prolonged outbreak due to its dependence on Chinas as an export market and intermediate imports as well as for tourism

  • In China itself, defaults of non-financial corporates in China could start to rise rapidly

  • This will lead to a decline in China’s long-term growth potential as private companies will suffer most, while less efficient SOEs will likely be bailed out. As a result, debt levels will balloon further, leaving China more vulnerable in the future

  • There will also be downwards pressure on the Chinese currency as extra CNY liquidity is made available

  • In the Ugly scenario, the virus spreads beyond China, and spreads to Asia as well as developed economies. Its effects will likely resemble the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009 more than the SARS outbreak in 2003

  • The Unthinkable scenario is a far left tail scenario, in which the virus mutates and becomes a truly global pandemic

Risk on?

Financial markets have been on a roller-coaster ride since the Novel coronavirus Covid-19 stole the headlines – albeit mainly on the ascent phase (bar today’s reaction) of the ride so far in terms of equities at least. At this stage, it’s still too early to tell whether or not Covid-19 is ‘under control’ or not. Especially given that the most surge in cases (due to a new counting methodology) shows that we don’t really know the actual number of infected cases (Figure 1).

In a research report published end-January we discussed the ‘most likely’ outcome for the global economy and markets based on what we knew at the time. But the huge uncertainty surrounding the spread of the virus as well as its impact on economic behaviour implies that we are still dealing with a wide range of possibilities from a relatively quick stabilization of the situation to a full-blown pandemic with far far-reaching consequences.

This report will therefore examine what the potential impact of the virus will be on the Chinese, Asian, and global economies under four different scenarios. As shall be seen, none of these are positive, in contra-distinction to the relative optimism shown by equity markets at present. In fact, all of them are negative to varying degrees such that we dub them: The Bad; The Worse; The Ugly; and The Unthinkable.

The Bad

This scenario is actually the ‘good’ one that markets are apparently pricing for, which would see a quick stabilization of the situation in China and assumes that the international spread of the virus remains limited to a number of countries, notably in the Asian region, but with no repeat of the swift spread we initially saw on mainland China.

This is a relatively benign scenario with the economic effects mostly concentrated in Q1 and part of Q2 2020. Regardless, we still envisage that China’s Q1 growth rate in this scenario could fall to 2.9% y-o-y, which is 3% lower than our previous forecast of 5.9%. Assuming the most draconian containment measures are gradually withdrawn during Q2, the impact on Q2 growth is likely to be smaller but still negative. Only in H2 would we expect a partial rebound. For 2020, our ballpark growth figure is 4.8% – 5.6% y/y GDP growth, and then and between 5.5% – 6.3% for 2021. (These are not our official forecasts. We are still working out the details and will present them in our upcoming quarterly outlook).

We expect Chinese industrial production to take the biggest hit near-term as factories remain mostly closed in Q1. Production growth in this scenario will drop to 2.2% y-o-y in the quarter, which is 4% below its 3-year average (6.1% y/y). However, there will likely be some catch-up growth in production in Q3 and Q4.

Services will take the second largest hit, slowing to 3.5% y-o-y, which is 3 percentage points below its 3-year average (7.5% y/y). Services will rebound too in H2, albeit partially. We say partially because while industrial production may “catch-up”, consumer spending is less likely to do so. People will not get an extra haircut or go on vacation twice to catch up on missed haircuts and vacations. Crucially, the services sector now comprises more than half of China’s economy (52%); in 2003 this was just 42%.

In terms of stimulus, we can naturally expect both fiscal and monetary policy to play a large role. The PBOC has already injected a significant quantity of liquidity via various channels, including reverse repo, totalling CNY2.9 trillion (USD 414 bn) at the time of writing (although a large part of this injection is for refinancing of previously ending contracts). More will be forthcoming, in their own words. Interest rates, such as where they matter in a quantity-driven credit economy like China, will also be lowered.

At the same time, the fiscal taps will have to open. We are again already seeing accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, and the central government fiscal deficit will also widen as needed to ensure the economy gets back on track as soon as possible.

However this is not a cost-free exercise. Already-high debt-ratios of corporates and the state in China will rise even higher. The narrative of deleveraging, which we did not subscribe to, will be comprehensively debunked. China will have to carry that debt with it in the future.

Concurrently, this new stimulus runs counter to China’s ambition to make its financial system more stable. Chinese banks already face rising non-performing loan (NPL) levels. For example, S&P estimate that in a growth slow-down these could multiple five or six fold, into the hundreds of USD billions. The actual, rather than realised, figure is likely to be far worse.
Crucially, China’s banks are also already capital constrained. Having to step in and support so much of the economy will almost certainly see them having to raise capital or rely on the PBOC. Indeed, in almost all scenarios the PBOC will be doing much more ahead.

In which case, a combination of increased CNY liquidity and lower Chinese rates, to say nothing of a drop in capital inflows, is likely to place significant downwards pressure on CNY. Might this even limit the PBOC’s room for action given China’s commitment to the US under the Phase One Trade Deal not to weaken its currency? Notably, the US is already recognising that there will be delays in China meeting its other promise, of huge US goods purchases.

For the global economy this scenario is also painful as China has become a critical driver of global economic growth. The sensitivity of the world economy to China’s growth rate was 0.17 between the 1980s and 2000, which has almost tripled to 0.47 in the last 15 years. Thus each percentage point of Chinese GDP growth coincides (we don’t say ‘leads to’) with about half a percentage point in world GDP growth (Figure 2). This scenario will see 2020 world GDP growth -0.2ppts lower than our current estimate of 2.9%.

The economic transmission mechanisms are as clear as those of the virus.

Automatic transmission

On the demand side, China is responsible for more than 25% of tourists in a host of countries such as South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand, but also Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong (Figure 3). It also sends millions of tourists further afield, to Europe and the US, for example. Naturally, a decline in Chinese tourists will hit hardest for the countries where tourism is largest as a share of GDP.

Thai tourism, for example, constitutes 20% of GDP and employs about 10% of the workforce. Chinese tourists alone account for about 6% of Thai GDP. Indeed, the virus is already hitting Thailand hard as seen from anecdotal reports from Thai resorts and Bangkok, which is a popular destination for visitors from Wuhan.

The second channel of demand-based transmission is exports. For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, and South Korea, more than 25% of exports go to China; for Hong Kong this figure is as high as 78% (Figure 4).

Even Europe cannot escape: 7% of Germany’s exports (EUR 96 bln) go to China, a quarter of which are cars. The rest of Asia constitutes 11% of German exports. Thus a full 18% of German exports will be hit directly or indirectly be less demand from China as well as disruption of transport routes. With German automotive output already at its lowest level since 2010 (Figure 5), significant weakness in Chinese demand could be a serious headwind for Germany.

The third transmission channel is indirect, and potentially just as disruptive: a supply shock. China is a vital part of international value chains and international firms rely on Chinese intermediate goods to produce their end products. Thus, a disruption in Chinese output means these companies are unable to produce their final goods, or at least face delays in production, depending on when production in China can be re-started.

On a macro level countries such as Vietnam, South Korea and Indonesia are especially prone to this (Figure 6), and in Europe so is Germany: about 9% of Germany’s total import of intermediate goods is from China. Germany’s car sector could thus feel the effects of the coronavirus via its exports to China, which will be hit, as well as in the difficulty getting of getting key imports from China in order to produce the cars.

Indeed, we have already seen several major Korean firms such as Hyundai and Kia shut down some local production due to lack of inputs from China, with consequent spill-over effects on to their own national supply-chains.

It should also go without saying that this trend is also playing out within China itself: China is vastly more correlated with China than it is with the rest of the world! Indeed, the under-appreciated risks of long- and China-centric supply chains are being underlined by the current crisis.

Longer-term impact

One also needs to consider the longer-term structural damage that will be seen the longer the virus is present for. The Chinese government will naturally aim to bail out its large State-Owned Entities (SOEs) if they suffer; but could it really do the same for private companies, SMEs, or for indebted households? That seems far less achievable. How far can the state really prop up the domino effect of cascading small and medium firm failures? How can it make households good short of suspending mortgage payments, for example, or huge increases in welfare spending, which China does not currently have systems in place for?

As such, Chinese GDP growth may only be sustained by a deepening of state activity and PBOC activism. The long-term effects of this kind of bail-out at a time when China is ostensibly supposed to be reforming would be that the Chinese economy as whole becomes less efficient in terms of its investment, which is already a key problem. This would mean a short-term stimulus sitting alongside a reduction China’s long term growth potential.

In addition, and as we already noted, either China’s government debt will balloon because of large bailouts of even-more indebted firms and households, at a time when this is already becoming an issue of concern. Note that the combined debt of non-financial corporates, the government and households has already reached 260% of GDP (Figure 7).

The Chinese currency could come under increased downwards pressure in financial markets as well, due to the massive extra CNY liquidity and matching lower Chinese rates.

The Worse

In ‘The Worse’ scenario the virus spreads further within China and lasts longer than in the previous scenario (6-9 months).

Within China, the economic impact will naturally be amplified, with only a partial bounce-back in H2 2020. The pressures on the Chinese government, corporates, and households if nobody is able to work for an extended period, and then on its banks and through to CNY, would increase by orders of magnitude.

In order to ascertain how likely this outcome is, one can arguably track real-time day-to-day air quality data looking at Nitrous Dioxide (NO2) levels in major Chinese cities, as a proxy for the polluting effects of economic activity. What can be seen at time of writing matches anecdotal descriptions of a property market in deep-freeze, ghost cities, and shuttered factories.

Assuming a longer, deeper virus impact we see China’s GDP growth for 2020 in a 3.8%-4.6% y/y range. Again production will take the largest hit because factories will be shut down longer. Services will take the secondary hit. Moreover, the global effect will be far stronger: global growth could decline by a full 1% in 2020. However, we do expect some rebound in late Q3 and in Q4, although the recovery in services will be relatively less due to an extended period of negative sentiment.

The Ugly

This ‘Ugly’ scenario would see the virus continue to rage in China, spread to ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand, and the cluster of cases in the US and Europe snowball at an exponential growth rate from their currently low base. In other words, developed economies would also be hit.

If the virus spreads in the West public panic would naturally be the immediate response. Just as seen in China today, people would stop going out and shopping to stay safe at home, or make panic purchases on fears of supply shortages and then stay at home. In short, the economy would largely grind to a halt.

Naturally, the services sector on which the West relies far more than China would be smashed: restaurants; pubs; bars; cinemas; concerts; conferences would all grind to a halt. International travel bans would be put in place. Supply chains would be broken. International trade would collapse along with domestic demand.

The government would immediately start to institute similar quarantine steps as seen in China. Regardless of the differences in political systems, quarantine is quarantine (and the word originates from Venice, after all). Presuming this was ineffective due to earlier symptom-free transmission then the quarantine would have to be expanded. We could expect a mirror of the Chinese villages building barriers around themselves to keep strangers out.

In this kind of scenario it is impossible to estimate the precise impact on the global economy – because there would be little *global* economy to speak of. Suffice to say, it would be a true depression: a sharp downturn like in 2008-09 that grinds on – and a recovery based on medical breakthroughs rather than monetary-policy ones.

Nonetheless, interest rates would obviously be slashed, where they can, and emergency government spending on anti-virus measures would be stepped up regardless of the size of fiscal deficits. At the same time banks would be told by central banks to keep supporting all firms, especially SMEs, that are facing bankruptcy as their revenues evaporate.

Yet would banks listen to their new orders to lend? Which staff would be doing this, if nobody is in the office? Banks haven’t done much real-economy lending under QE liquidity and no virus conditions, for example. Firms themselves would be told to keep paying their workers even if they can’t do any work – but as in China, would SMEs be able to afford to? And what about the gig economy and the huge number of self-employed?

As such, the state would be forced to expand its role markedly in order to stop a total economic collapse – once again, as in China. This would be akin to current populist arguments for a fiscal-QE-driven ‘Green New Deal’, but in this case wrapped up in biosecurity terms. However, our health and armed forces (which would be needed to keep control) are arguably over-stretched and under-resourced already in many countries, and are not something that can be turned on/off quickly like a switch.

The Unthinkable

This scenario is very short. The virus spreads globally and also mutates, with its transmissibility increasing and its lethality  increasing too. The numbers infected would skyrocket, as would casualties. We could be looking at a global pandemic, and at scenarios more akin to dystopian Hollywood films than the realms of economic analysis. Let’s all pray it does not come to pass and just remains a very fat tail risk.

However, one can see that in each of these four scenarios things are ugly, even in the first two ones. As such, the relative financial market optimism still seems to be based on the belief that central-bank liquidity supersedes virus transmissibility. That’s still quite optimistic given the uprise in uncertainty about the coronavirus.


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 13:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2vEpE6N Tyler Durden

US & Taliban Reach Major Truce Deal; Features Eventual Release Of 5,000 Taliban Prisoners

US & Taliban Reach Major Truce Deal; Features Eventual Release Of 5,000 Taliban Prisoners

A senior US official announced Friday that a ceasefire deal with the Taliban has been agreed to after 16 months of controversial direct State Department and Taliban negotiations, AP reports, as part of the continuing Trump administration saga to finally get out America’s 18-year war. 

The deal is being described as “very specific” — a positive sign considering recent perhaps more ambiguous ceasefire attempts have quickly failed before even getting off the ground — and includes a seven day “reduction of violence” nationwide which is to be a precursor to all-Afghan peace talks within 10 days.

US Army photo

Defense Secretary Mark Esper had first hinted at the deal in comments on Friday, saying Washington had “negotiated a proposal for a seven-day reduction in violence.”

According to the AP, the end goal if this new deal sticks would “initiate the peace negotiations and the withdrawal of U.S. troops”.

The AP describes the conditional precursor as follows:

The official, who was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the Taliban had committed to a halt in roadside and suicide bombings as well as rocket attacks. The official said the U.S. would monitor the truce and determine if there were any violations.

The deal will not impact ongoing counter-terror operations against Islamic State and al-Qaeda terrorists still in Afghanistan, and is part of a broader White House policy that seeks to separate and turn the Taliban against these other Islamist insurgent rivals. 

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Esper met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on the sidelines of an international security summit in Munich on Friday, where details were discussed in private.

The deal is also said to involve a good faith agreement for the US and Afghan national government to provide for the release of some 5,000 Taliban prisoners after the ceasefire sticks

But the initial “reduction in violence” stipulation will be the key litmus test, considering past attempts have failed, with major bombings in Kabul having followed prior deals. There’s also the likelihood that the Taliban doesn’t have control of all of its own factions, and the possibility that dissenting leaders could seek to sabotage it. 


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 12:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/39uqXUK Tyler Durden

The Secret To Fun And Easy Stock Market Riches

The Secret To Fun And Easy Stock Market Riches

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up.  Rather, it went down.

Were the DJIA operating within the framework of a free capital market it would be normal for the index to go both up and down.  But remember, the U.S. stock market is hardly a free market.  Not when it’s under the influence of extreme Fed intervention.

When the Fed speaks, the DJIA should go up.  At least, that’s the opinion of President Trump.  And as Powell spoke, the Real Donald Trump took to Twitter, and delivered his play-by-play assessment:

“When Jerome Powell started his testimony today, the Dow was up 125, & heading higher.  As he spoke it drifted steadily downward, as usual, and is now at -15 […]”

President Trump, no doubt, was falling for the post hoc fallacy by linking correlation with causation.  Was this intentional?  Was this ignorance?  You can decide.

Regardless, the Fed’s culpable in its own right for creating the condition where the stock market only goes up.  Still, the Fed’s influence is not without limits.  Certainly, the stock market will one day slip through its grip.  But when?

Cheap and Yummy

The DJIA has gone up and to the right for nearly 11 years.  During this time there have been several moderate corrections.  Yet nothing to set off a serious panic.

After this extended bull market run, many investors have swallowed the belief – hook, line, and sinker – that the Fed has erected safety bumpers along the stock market’s path.  That, somehow, the Fed has fabricated a market free of risk.  That Fed Chair Powell, or his successor, will always save the day with more liquidity.

Thus, bad news is good news.  A slowing economy, rising unemployment rate, earnings recession, trade war, global pandemic, drone strikes, presidential impeachment trial, melting glaciers…you name it.  The worse the news is, the better.

Because bad news means more Fed liquidity.  And more Fed liquidity means higher stock prices.  And higher stock prices means the nirvana of inflated stock portfolios.  And the nirvana of inflated stock portfolios means an enlightened and purpose driven life.  And an enlightened and purpose driven life means he who dies with the most toys wins.

What to make of it?

Years ago a friend of ours had grand plans of opening a restaurant called, Cheap and Yummy.  His firm belief was that it would be a no fail proposition, so long as he could deliver on the big promise of cheap and yummy food.  Who doesn’t want yummy food on the cheap?

Of course, the restaurant never advanced from being just an idea.  And, quite frankly, the idea was a joke.  No tangible steps were ever taken to bring it to fruition, as far as we know.

Here’s the point…

The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches

After 40 years of increasing liquidity blasts into credit markets, the Fed has promised investors a much larger – and much more dangerous – joke of an idea: That investing in stocks is fun and easy.

However, you must know an important secret.  And what you must know about this important secret is that, for most thinking people, it’s counterintuitive.

Specifically, the secret to fun and easy stock market riches, as promised by the Fed, is to not think.  The evidence is overwhelming.  The most successful investors over the last 11 years are those that shut off their brains and just bought stocks no matter what.  They’ve been the real winners.

Investors that recognized the obvious disconnect between the stock market and the underlying economy most likely sold years ago.  Some have even been sitting on cash, in disbelief, this entire time.  They’ve missed out bigtime.

Moreover, investors that maintained focus on fundamental analysis, sensible asset allocation, and value stocks, have been punished for their prudence.  They didn’t know the secret to fun and easy stock market riches.  Instead, they made the fatal mistake of using their brains.

Therefore, shut off your brain and buy shares of Tesla.  Don’t question the fact that Tesla sets money on fire.  Just buy!

Full disclosure: We’re 100 percent certain the secret to fun and easy stock market riches will work perfectly well until the precise moment it works perfectly bad.  Caution at this juncture is advised.


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 12:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2vzSSUE Tyler Durden

Snoop Dogg Apologizes For Calling Gayle King “Funky Dog Head Bitch” Over Kobe Bryant Controversy

Snoop Dogg Apologizes For Calling Gayle King “Funky Dog Head Bitch” Over Kobe Bryant Controversy

After days of finding himself on the receiving end of criticism, Snoop Dogg has now apologized to reporter Gayle King for attacking her on Instagram. Snoop had called King a “funky dog head bitch” and lobbed threats at the reporter about a week ago for comments she made about Kobe Bryant shortly after his death. .  

“Two wrongs don’t make no right. when you’re wrong, you gotta fix it,” Snoop Dogg said on Instagram last week. 

He continued: “So with that being said, Gayle King, I publicly tore you down by coming at you in a derogatory manner based off of emotions of me being angry at a question you asked. Overreacted. I should have handled it way different than that, I was raised way better than that, so I would like to apologize publicly for the language that I used and calling you out your name and just being disrespectful.”

 

Snoop Dogg says in his Instagram post that it was a chat with his mother that changed his mind about how he acted. 

He continued: “I didn’t mean for it to be like that. I was just expressing myself for a friend that wasn’t there to defend himself. Anytime you mess up, it’s OK to fix it, it’s OK to man up to say that you’re wrong. I apologize. Hopefully we can sit down and talk, privately.”

Recall, we reported about a week ago that Gayle King chose to use Bryant’s death to remind the public that the former NBA star had been accused of sexual assault in 2003, while interviewing WNBA Champion Lisa Leslie after Bryant’s death. 

“It has been said that his legacy is complicated because of the sexual assault charge which was dismissed in 2003, 2004. Is it complicated for you as a woman, a WNBA player?” King asked.

Leslie responded at the time:

It’s not complicated for me at all. I just have never seen him as being the kind of person that would do something violating to a woman or be aggressive in that way. That’s just not the person I know.”

While King’s choice to “go there” has resulted in tons of backlash toward the anchor, none was more pronounced – and possibly more in violation of several media sites’ terms of service – than Snoop Dogg’s, who took to Instagram to publicly berate, insult and threaten King.

Snoop said:

“Gayle King, out of pocket for that shit, way out of pocket. What do you gain from that? I swear to God, we the worst, we the f*king worst. We expect more from you, Gayle, don’t you hang out with Oprah? Why you all attacking us, we your people. You ain’t coming after f–king Harvey Weinstein asking him dumb-ass questions. I get sick of you all.”

He then threatened her: “I wanna call you one funky, dog-haired bitch. How dare you try and tarnish my motherf-king homeboy’s reputation, punk motherf–ker. Respect the family and back off, bitch, before we come get you.”

Snoop’s message was titled “P.S.A. Let the family mourn in peace” and has racked up millions of likes since it has been published. more than 1 million likes.

Regardless, last we checked, Snoop’s Twitter account with its 18 million followers and his Instagram with its 39 million followers still have not been suspended.


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 11:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/37pM6xS Tyler Durden

Covid-19 Contagion – An “Unprecedented” Moment For Our Hyper-Connected Planet

Covid-19 Contagion – An “Unprecedented” Moment For Our Hyper-Connected Planet

Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,

There’s a reason we’ve re-directed so much of our attention towards reporting on and trying to understand the novel coronavirus (covid-19) that originated in Wuhan, China in December.

The heart of our approach is to be “systems thinkers.”

“Learn how to see.  Realize that everything connects to everything else”

~ Leonardo Davinci

We don’t see the economy as a closed ecosystem to be analyzed and understood all on its own.  It’s connected to energy flows, especially oil.  So we investigate those, too, with an eye towards working out how fossil fuels’ eventual dwindling will impact an economic system that is utterly dependent on perpetual growth.

Without a healthy planet, without intact and functioning ecological systems, nothing matters in either the economy or the energy markets.  Both impact the ecological world And vice versa.  So we analyze and report on the environment, too.

Which is why we’re confident in claiming that humanity is now facing its greatest threat.  Our current path of depleting our essential resources at an accelerating rate in the pursuit of “more growth” is both unsustainable and self-destructive.

So here we are, with a global economy that’s very cost-efficient but not resilient.  It’s wonderful that Walmart has worked out how to order a new tube of toothpaste from China the second one is pulled off a shelf in Topeka, KS. But that means there is no deep storage to draw upon in times of disruption to the status quo.  No warehouses stocked with 12 months of future goods.  Just a brilliantly-complicated supply chain thousands of miles long that has to work perfectly for things to keep running.

As an example that drives home this point: we learned during the 2011 earthquake in Japan that there was just one single factory making a necessary polymer gel for the odd-shaped lithium batteries used in smartphones and iPods.  There was no backup factory.

We watched closely during that enormous crisis (which also spawned the Fukushima nuclear disaster) as electronics companies scrambled to triage their remaining supplies and attempt to find new sources.  It was very touch and go.  Vast portions of the battery-fueled electronic industry came within a whisker of simply shutting down production — all for want of an esoteric polymer gel.

Yes, the most cost-effective way to make that gel was to house it all in a single plant.  But it made no sense from a redundancy and resilience standpoint.

And did ‘we’ learn from that experience?  Nope.

Supply Chain Armageddon

The global economy is more interdependent than ever. Its supply chains are built on a huge network of dependencies with many ‘single points of failure’ strung along its many branches.

Can anybody predict what will happen next?  No.

But we’re already seeing early failures as Chinese plants, factories and ports sit idle from the country’s massive quarantine efforts:

China set to lose out on production of 1M vehicles as coronavirus closes car plants

China exports about $70 billion worth of car parts and accessories globally, with roughly 20 percent going to the U.S.

Feb. 5, 2020, 4:32 PM EST

By Paul A. Eisenstein

China could suffer the loss of a million vehicles worth of production as factories in its crucial automotive industry remain shuttered until at least next week — and likely longer in Wuhan, the “motor city” at the center of the coronavirus outbreak.

With more than 24,000 people infected, the impact of the highly contagious disease is also beginning to be felt by automakers in other parts of the world. Hyundai is suspending production in its South Korean plants because of a shortage of Chinese-made parts, and even European car manufacturers could be hit: Volkswagen and BMW could see a dip of 5 percent in their earnings for the first half of 2020, according to research firm Bernstein.

(Source – NBC)

We’re predicting that these auto shutdowns are just beginning.  All it takes is a single component to be unavailable and the entire line has to be shut down.

Is China the sole source for many critical components in the auto industry?  Absolutely.

Here’s an inside view:

On Monday, Steve Banker and I had the opportunity to speak with Razat Gaurav, CEO of Llamasoft. Razat had some interesting takes on the outbreak, especially as it relates to the automotive and pharmaceutical supply chains. On average it takes 30,000 parts to make a finished automobile.

Due to the virus, production facilities have already indicated that they will have lower than normal parts volumes. This has left companies scrambling to make contingency plans. During my conversation with Razat, he mentioned that inventories for most of these automotive parts are managed on a lean just-in-time basis.

This means that, on average, companies have anywhere between two and twelve weeks of buffer inventory on-hand for automotive parts. As production volumes are decreasing, this has the potential to cause quite the global shortage of parts. The buffer inventory will only last so long, and once the pre-holiday supply runs dry, the industry is going to be in serious trouble. According to Gaurav: “Most OEMs single source components for new vehicles and China is a large supplier of those.”

(Source – Logistics Viewpoints)

“Single sourcing” is exactly what it implies.  There’s a single factory somewhere churning out a single component that is absolutely vital to make a motorized vehicle.  If that factory goes away for any length of time, a new source has to be identified or – worse, from a time and cost standpoint – built from scratch.

But this vulnerability to China-dependent supply chains is by no means unique to the auto industry:

Last month, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission held a hearing on the United States’ growing reliance on China’s pharmaceutical products. The topic reminded me of a spirited discussion described in Bob Woodward’s book, Fear: Trump in the White House.

In the discussion, Gary Cohn, then chief economic advisor to President Trump, argued against a trade war with China by invoking a Department of Commerce study that found that 97 percent of all antibiotics in the United States came from China.

(Source – CFR)

That’s as close to a ‘sole source’ as you can get.

And to put the cherry on top: guess the name of the region in China responsible for producing all if these antibiotics?  Yep, Hubei province.  With Wuhan its most important production hub.

Can we find another source for our generic drugs and antibiotics?  India, possibly.  But here again we run into the same global interdependency issue:

Another industry that is feeling the impact of the coronavirus is the pharmaceutical industry. The average buffer inventory for the pharmaceutical industry is between three and six months. However, this does not tell the full story. Gaurav mentioned that China is responsible for producing 40 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for the pharmaceutical world.

Additionally, China supplies 80 percent of key starting materials (KSM’s), which are the chemicals in APIs, to India. Put together, this represents 70 percent of all APIs across the world.

(Source – Logistics Viewpoints)

India’s production is directly tied to uninterrupted supply from China:

Indian generic drugmakers may face supply shortages from China if coronavirus drags on

Feb 13 (Reuters) – Shortages and potential price increases of generic drugs from India loom if the coronavirus outbreak disrupts suppliers of pharmaceutical ingredients in China past April, according to industry experts.

An important supplier of generic drugs to the world, Indian companies procure almost 70% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for their medicines from China.

India’s generic drugmakers say they currently have enough API supplies from China to cover their operations for up to about three months.

“We are comfortably placed with eight to 10 weeks of key inventory in place,” said Debabrata Chakravorty, head of global sourcing and supply chain for Lupin Ltd, adding that the company does have some local suppliers for ingredients.

Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd said it has sufficient inventory of API and raw materials for the short term and has not seen any major disruption in supplies at the moment.

The Indian drugmaker, however, said supply has been impacted for a few API products and the company is closely monitoring the situation. It did not identify the products.

India supplies nearly a third of medicines sold in the United States, the world’s largest and most lucrative healthcare market.

(Source)

Is this a huge concern?  Of course it is.

If you’re dependent in any way on prescription drugs, it would be entirely rational to chase down whether those come from China or India and, if they are, begin talks with your doctor about alternatives or what to do if supplies get pinched.

A Fast-Moving Situation

Look, we entirely get why the authorities and media are downplaying the covid-19 pandemic.  We really do.  They feel the need to manage the crisis, which means managing the public narrative.

But c’mon. Does it make any sense for Apple’s stock price to be up while its main Foxconn manufacturing facility is all but completely shuttered?

Fewer iPhones and Airpods being made should equate with lower future earnings and thus a lower stock price. But no, AAPL is up handily over the past month:

And this is even crazier. Does it make ANY sense for Boeing’s stock to be up $12 over the past month? As it reported its first year (2019) of NEGATIVE orders and a completely order-free January (2020)?  No, of course not.

But those are the sorts of ‘signals’ that the officials believe have to be sent in order to keep the masses from catching on that something really concerning is happening.

Unfortunately, such signals work on the masses.  Higher stock prices send a powerful comforting message that “all is well”.

But prudent critical thinkers, which defines those in the Peak Prosperity tribe, can readily see through the ruse and get busy preparing themselves for what’s coming.

It’s Time For Action

The situation with covid-19 is fluid, and fast-moving.  Staying on top of the breaking developments and making sense of them for you is our primary job.

But information without informed action is useless.

After all, knowing something concerning but then doing nothing about it is merely cause for anxiety if not alarm.

The only ways to remain calm and protect your loved ones from the threat of this pandemic are rooted in taking smart action.

Yes, we can all hope this blows over.  We sincerely wish the macro-planners all the best in shaping the narrative and keeping the macro economy somehow functioning and glued together.

But we’re going to prepare as best we can, here at our micro level because that’s our duty to ourselves, to our families, and to our communities.

Creating A Resilient Defense Against The Coronavirus

This is a huge moment in history.  The first global pandemic at a time when the world economy is sole-sourced and completely interdependent.

Nobody can predict what will happen next.  Autos, drugs…who knows what the next industry to stumble will be?

Given the ridiculously high rate of infectivity of covid-19 there’s really no chance of stopping its spread.  The rate is now just a equation of time, luck, and official actions to aggressively isolate and quarantine infected individuals and communities.

Our position affords us many experienced contacts with experts throughout the world, and those we know with deep medical training are preparing the most aggressively right now. This outbreak has their full attention; and that informs us that it should have ours, too.

Which is why our advice is to get busy preparing yourself now.

Last week we issued the guide How We’re Personally Preparing For The Coronavirus to our premium subscribers. It’s a great resource providing specific recommendations for prevention and treatment.

Today, we’re releasing an expanded companion guide A Resilient Defense Against The Coronavirus, again for our premium members.

Particularly useful for those who have recently found their way to PeakProsperity.com, it offers both a valuable framework to use in preparing for any disaster (including pandemics) and then details out specific action steps to take today across all aspects of your life (i.e., not just health & hygiene) against a coronavirus outbreak in your local area.

Click here to read this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 11:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2StNlYt Tyler Durden

Bloomberg Considers Hillary For Running Mate

Bloomberg Considers Hillary For Running Mate

In another classic Drudge Report scoop that is bound to dominate the Democratic Primary news cycle from now until South Carolina and Nevada, the conservative-leaning aggregator reports that Mike Bloomberg is considering Hillary Clinton as a potential running mate.

Drudge added that, as part of the deal, Bloomberg would likely change his residency, since the electoral college math would make it harder for a Presidential and VP candidates from the same state.

Sources close to Bloomberg campaign tell DRUDGE REPORT that candidate is considering Hillary Clinton as running mate, after their polling found the Bloomberg-Clinton combination would be formidable force…

DRUDGE has learned that Bloomberg himself would go as far as to change his official residence from New York to homes he owns in Colorado or Florida, since the electoral college makes it hard for a POTUS and VPOTUS from the same state.

We’ve taken screenshots of the tweets, given Drudge’s longstanding policy of deleting his tweets not long after publishing.

The news comes amid a surge in the polls that has put Bloomberg closer and closer to taking first in Florida, a key part of his strategy.

And sure, Bloomberg wasn’t even on the ballot in Iowa, but who needs the electoral process when you have money and deep-state Clinton power? After all, nobody knows how to rig a primary like Hillary.

And of course, Steve Bannon predicted that something like this would happen.

REGAN: Let me turn to 2020. Let me turn to the Democrats. Bloomberg’s now in on the mix. By the way, just to remind the viewers, this is the guy that broke the news here. Watch.
 
BANNON: They will throw Biden away. They’ll throw Biden away to get to Trump and hope Elizabeth Warren or I even think Hillary Clinton or Bloomberg or some centrist comes in here. All these other people that could have been the centrist candidate for whatever reason haven’t materialize. And that leaves a huge opportunity for two people, I believe, Michael Bloomberg and Hillary Clinton.

Here’s the clip:

Notably, just as Drudge was breaking the news via Twitter and his website

…Bloomberg tweeted this. It’s not a confirmation, but it certainly sounds like a hint to us [Editor’s Note: It’s actually a response to a WaPo investigation about Bloomberg’s history of treating women brusquely in the workplace. The investigation was published a little more than an hour ago.]

Meanwhile, CNN is continuing its scare campaign to convince the world that Bloomberg is the only one who can save the country from Trump.

Some might argue it’s a smart move: Bloomberg is going all-in on winning the backing of the Democratic establishment. By winning the Clintons as an ally, he can make inroads with their army of loyalists who still hold tremendous sway over the party apparatus, while appealing to more middle-class women and others who supported the Democrat last time around.

In other words, to the DNC, Hillary is still a ‘safe bet.’


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 10:58

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3bFtZaq Tyler Durden

Another ‘Nightmare At Sea’: First COVID-19 Case Detected Aboard Cruise Ship Given ‘Safe Harbor’ In Cambodia

Another ‘Nightmare At Sea’: First COVID-19 Case Detected Aboard Cruise Ship Given ‘Safe Harbor’ In Cambodia

Remember the cruise ship that was refused entry by four countries, despite having zero confirmed cases of COVID-19? In hindsight, those countries might have had a point.

Because Reuters reports that the first case of coronavirus has been detected among the ship’s passengers, who docked in Cambodia on Friday.

What’s more: the patient is an 83-year-old American woman. Health authorities in Malaysia confirmed the infection after the woman tested positive on Saturday.

Wait, but didn’t the ship dock in Cambodia? Why is this woman being tested in Malaysia.

Well, first – yes, it did.

Second, it appears that the Cambodian authorities allowed 144 passengers to fly to Malaysia after disembarking on Friday, apparently without even screening them thoroughly.

According to Reuters, the passengers were tested regularly on board and Cambodia also tested 20 passengers after the ship docked. But it’s not clear what kind of tests they were using – swab tests have proved notoriously unreliable.

And clearly, whatever they did, it wasn’t thorough enough, because this woman got through.

At some point, the woman’s symptoms were noted, she was tested, and is now being quarantined.

But if there’s one thing we’ve learned about COVID-19, it’s that there’s never just one case in a group. And Malaysia has already reported dozens of cases.

Also, as we’ve seen with the ‘Diamond Princess’ cases, cruises are extremely susceptible to widespread outbreaks, which means there could be dozens of others infected.

The Westerdam was carrying 1,455 passengers and 802 crew, and it spent two weeks at sea.

After reading a story in today’s South China Morning Post, we realized that President Xi’s immediate economic priority is making sure he can present a believable vision of China having ‘contained’ the outbreak so that the Chinese people and the global community will accept his government’s growth-rate targets laid out in the Party’s ‘Annual Work Report’, which is expected to be released at the next National People’s Congress in early March.

Here’s SCMP’s latest global tally for cases and deaths; it’s missing cases in Singapore that were reported earlier Saturday morning.

Delaying the release could be construed as a sign of weakness, so we suspect Xi will make sure to pad it with some of China’s famously goalseeked stats. Still, like any other form of propaganda, goalseeking is a strategy, and it only works if at least some of the target audience finds it believable.

Elsewhere, there was an interesting COVID-19 develop in North Korea overnight: Yonhap has reportedly confirmed that a North Korean coronavirus patient escaped quarantine and traveled to a public area before being apprehend and…immediately executed.

The State Department has said it wants to help North Korea deal with the outbreak, though Kim Jong Un and his government continue to insist that there is no outbreak (though of course Kim would probably rather watch 1 million North Koreans suffocate to death from pneumonia before allowing the US to play white knight).

We’ve already noted some other interesting developments that were reported early Saturday, including the first coronavirus death in Europe, while cases aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’ spike 30%.


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 10:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2SMcPPT Tyler Durden

Cambridge Academic Says Human Race Must Become Extinct To Save The Planet

Cambridge Academic Says Human Race Must Become Extinct To Save The Planet

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit news,

A Cambridge academic has called for the extinction of humanity to save the planet while noting that white, male, heterosexuals are to blame for all the world’s woes.

In her new book The Ahuman Manifesto, Professor Patricia MacCormack argues that the only way to prevent ecological disaster is to begin “gradually phasing out reproduction.”

Speaking to CambridgeshireLive, Professor MacCormack made it clear who would be first on the evolutionary chopping block.

“The basic premise of the book is that we’re in the age of the Anthropocene, humanity has caused mass problems and one of them is creating this hierarchal world where white, male, heterosexual and able-bodied people are succeeding, and people of different races, genders, sexualities and those with disabilities are struggling to get that,” she said.

According to CambridgeshireLive’s Alistair Ryder, despite literally calling for the entire human species to be wiped out, the book has a “joyful and optimistic tone.”

Ok, then.

MacCormack said her ideas were first inspired by her interest in “feminism and queer theory.” Imagine my shock.

The professor also wants to completely dismantle religion, although whether that would extend to her own beliefs is unclear.

MacCormack appears in a YouTube video entitled ‘Performing the Occult’ in which she discusses the crucial topic of “vulvic deamonitalia.”

She also featured in a DVD called Video Nasties: The Definitive Guide, in which she reviews a movie called The Chant of Jimmie Blacksmith, which is about an “exploited Aboriginal Australian” who commits a massacre in the name of racial justice.

“Hats off to Morticia for cutting to the chase,” writes Dave Blount. “Worship of the other, hatred for your kind is at the core of liberal ideology. This has inevitably led to support for open boarders, Affirmative Action, anti-Americanism, et cetera. It leads to wanting humanity exterminated just as inevitably. A liberal who doesn’t want the human race to die out has not thought matters through.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 10:20

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A 2nd Syrian Helicopter Brought Down By MANPAD In Only A Few Days

A 2nd Syrian Helicopter Brought Down By MANPAD In Only A Few Days

Another Syrian military helicopter has been shot down by the jihadist insurgents now threatening western Aleppo amid fierce fighting in both Idlib and Aleppo provinces.

A surface-to-air missile, likely a MANPAD, was fired on the chopper by Turkish-backed militants in the countryside of the major northern Syrian city, in the second such rare helicopter downing in only a few days.

Like Tuesday’s shootdown, which killed a high ranking Syrian officer along with the crew, video was released shortly after the incident. It shows a fiery mass falling from the sky moments after the anti-aircraft missile struck the chopper. 

At least two Syrian military members aboard were reported killed. 

Some analysts were quick to point out that the Syrian Army made a major blunder in flying more helicopters over the same area which just days ago witnessed a MANPAD take out a prior aircraft. 

Syria analyst and journalist Danny Makki observed further, “This cant be a coincidence, unless the official Turkish army is shooting down Syrian helicopters then they have clearly given the militants MANPADS.”

Whether Turkey or even possibly the United States supplied them, it does now appear the al-Qaeda linked fighters backed by Erdogan are now in possession of deadly Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS). 

All the way back in 2018 we detailed how the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), still in control of Idlib province, came to be in possession of US-supplied ‘Stinger’ missiles, despite their formal US Treasury designation as a terrorist entity. 

* * *

What state actor covertly fueling the war in Syria thought this was a good idea? 


Tyler Durden

Sat, 02/15/2020 – 09:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2vx7KTN Tyler Durden