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Trump Tower has now become one of the least desirable luxury properties in Manhattan, according to Bloomberg. Since Donald Trump won the presidency, the building has been turned into a “fortress” and has been blocked off with barriers at two of its main entrances.

And the building that once attracted stars and celebrities is now famous only for the infamous Trump campaign meeting with the Russian lawyer documented in Robert Mueller’s report. The 36-year-old building that bears Trump’s name has simply become a “turn off” for tenants in the liberal city.

The pain has been felt by those who own units in the tower. Most condo sales in the building have resulted in a loss after adjusting for inflation and several condos have been sold at a more than 20% loss. For comparison, according to PropertyShark, just 0.23% of homes across Manhattan have been sold at a loss over the last two years.

There’s also 42,000 square feet of office space that the tower is having trouble filling out, despite advertising rents below the area average. And it’s not just Trump Tower that’s feeling the pain: business is down at Trump’s public golf course in New York and plans to launch a new middle tier hotel chain across the country have been shelved.

Trump will be providing an updated snapshot of his net worth this week, as his annual financial disclosures are due Wednesday. They won’t go into detail about the Trump Organization‘s revenue, but it’s clear that Trump Tower is suffering based on securities filings, property records and real estate listings.

And on any given day, the number of Trump Organization and government security people in the building can easily outnumber everybody else in the building’s atrium. The building’s occupancy rate has fallen to 83% from 99% over the last seven years. This vacancy rate is about twice Manhattan’s average.

Edward Son, until recently a market analyst for CoStar Group Inc said: “If I were looking for office space, that would be a building I’d want to avoid.”

Net income for the tower was up slightly last year, as a result of the tenancy of Trump’s 2020 campaign committee, which has spent more than $890,000 over the last two years to rent space in the tower. But the building’s net income is still about 26% lower than what bankers expected when they evaluated Trump’s finances for a $100 million loan in 2012.

But even after taking into account the $4.3 million in interest owed on the loan, the building generated about $10 million in free cash last year. The few that have rented condos in hopes of bumping into the president have likely been disappointed, as Trump has only visited the building 13 times since his inauguration.

Michael Sklar sold his parent’s 57th floor unit for $1.83 million in October after they spent $400,000 to remodel it. It was originally purchased for $1.4 million in 2004, which comes out to $1.84 million after adjusting for inflation.

“No one wants in that building,” Sklar said.

Living in the tower became a hassle after Trump won the presidency, Sklar said. His mother, who was battling cancer at the time, took cabs from the airport to the building and used to be dropped off at the front entrance. But after Trump’s election, she was forced to be dropped off “hundreds of feet” from the front door and was made to walk home.

“The name on the building became a problem,” Sklar continued.

At least 13 condos have sold in the tower since Trump’s election. Eight out of nine transactions available from New York City records show that the seller sold at an inflation adjusted loss. For comparison, just 57 homes elsewhere in Manhattan sold at a loss over the past two years, out of 24,871 third-party sales.

Matthew D. Hughes, a Manhattan-based broker at Brown Harris Stevens said: “The luxury market is softening. But it’s rare that someone owns an apartment here for 10 years and takes a loss.”

One real estate agent said that clients have repeatedly told him not to show them units in Trump buildings, where gawkers often outnumber the customers of the building’s retail stores. Barbara Res, a former Trump Organization executive said: “It’s totally a tourist trap.”

She remembers the building “fondly” and said that when it was built, Trump often recruited celebrities to purchase condos there in order to fill it out and add to its appeal.

The tower is just two blocks from Central Park and is home to a 60 foot waterfall and tons of pink Italian marble. It’s advertised as having 68 stories, despite having only 58, and the building was ahead of its time when it was built. Trump’s lawyer, George Ross, wrote in 2005: “He single-handedly created the market for high-end luxury residences in New York City.”

The building was given a new prominence when Trump’s reality show, The Apprentice, launched in 2004 and filmed there, helping Trump revive his personal brand. In 2013, Trump put the value of his brand at $4 billion.

And the tower’s location should have it doing well: it’s in the Plaza District, right off of Central Park, an area that many real estate experts consider to be the nation’s premier office area. Offices that have views of Central Park easily bring in more than $100 per square foot often, one New York Research director said. Trump Tower, however, is now advertising open space for $72-$85 per square foot annually. Late last year the Trump Organization said in a promotional video that the tower was “one of New York’s most iconic trophy buildings.”

Prices are now listed as negotiable.

Louis D’Avanzo, managing principal of Cushman & Wakefield Plc’s Midtown Manhattan office, said: “Any of the buildings that have been really successful in Midtown are either newer class or the landlords have spent considerable capital to make them more modern and have more amenities.”

Trump has spent little on updating the tower in recent years.

Res concluded: “I don’t think I would want an office in Trump Tower. Why would you go there? It’s a wonder he doesn’t have 50% vacancy.”

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2w03Gbp Tyler Durden

Authored (satirically) by CJ Hopkins via The Unz Review,

So, the election-meddling Putin-Nazi disinformationists are at it again! Oh yes, while Americans have been distracted by Russiagate, Obstructiongate, Redactiongate, or whatever it’s being called at this point, here in Europe, we are purportedly being bombarded with Russian “disinformation” aimed at fomenting confusion and chaos in advance of the upcoming EU elections, which are due to take place in less than two weeks.

The New York Times reports that an entire “constellation” of social media accounts “linked to Russia and far-right groups” is disseminating extremist “disinformation,” “encouraging discord,” and “amplifying distrust in the centrist parties that have governed for decades.” These accounts share some of the same “digital fingerprints,” and are engaging in “tactics” similar to the “tactics used in previous Russian attacks,” notably the Kremlin’s notorious mass-brainwashing of millions of defenseless African Americans with those deceptive anti-masturbation memes during the 2016 elections.

Now, this is not just a bunch of nonsense dressed up with authoritative-sounding lingo. No, The Times spoke to “analysts” and “advocacy groups,” which informed them that certain websites in Italy “share the same signatures” as certain other websites sharing certain “pro-Kremlin views.” Moreover, two “political groups” in Germany used the same Internet service providers as those “Russian hackers” who attacked our democracy by stealing those Democratic Party emails that transformed Americans overnight into a nation of Trump-loving white supremacists!

That hasn’t happened here in Europe yet, but I’m not sure how much longer we can hold out against this relentless onslaught. According to an “analysis” concocted by some cloud-based cybersecurity firm and authoritatively cited by Politico, at this point, “more than half of Europeans might have seen some form of disinformation” spread by “Russians” on social media. They might have been exposed to “extremist views” and “amplified content” possibly produced by the far-right Alternative for Germany party, and even (God help them!) supporters of Brexit.

SafeGuard Cyber (the cybersecurity firm in question, which offers “digital risk protection and empowers businesses to embrace new technologies,” or whatever mumbo jumbo it says on their website) identified, and is now presumably surveilling on a more or less around the clock basis, “a vast network of automated social media accounts allegedly controlled by Russian actors” which is spreading this “amplified extremist content.”

Although Politico “was unable to independently verify” whether the social media accounts the SafeGuard Cyber analysis “identified” (and used to generate a meaningless graph) were in any way actually linked to Russia, and although SafeGuard Cyber would not provide Politico with a list of the users it assured Politico were “linked to Russia,” SafeGuard Cyber’s CTO informed Politico that his team of experts had used “more than 50 identifiers,” among them, the location from which the messages were sent and “activity linked to Russian interests,” to identify these “Russian actors” who are exposing innocent Europeans and expatriate Americans like myself to Lord knows what kind of jargon-laden, dangerously amplified, extremist content in order to disinform and confuse us.

And it’s not just the upcoming EU elections that the Putin-Nazi disinformationists are targeting. An outfit called Global Security Review, which “publishes objective, solutions-oriented insight into geopolitical issues” which can be authoritatively referenced by the corporate media to lend whatever story they are pushing an air of credibility, warn that Russia is conducting a campaign to “overwhelm democracies” with disinformation! According to the experts at GSR, Putin-Nazi disinformationists working for Russia Today and Sputnik brainwashed the citizens of Catalonia into voting for their independence from Spain with a network of bots (or “zombie accounts”). In France, they brainwashed the Gilets Jaunes protesters into attacking the windows of upscale stores and setting fire to luxury vehicles by “magnifying the brutality of the French police,” who have been doing their utmost to show restraint as they shoot people’s eyes out with rubber bullets and indiscriminately tear-gas the hell out of everyone.

And then there’s the evil Russian spywhale, which the disinformationists want us to believe is just a harmless “therapy Beluga” for kids, but which has clearly been strapped with some sort of monstrous, mind-controlling apparatus that enables the Kremlin to remotely implant a host of dangerous “populist” ideas in the brains of defenseless Norwegian fishermen, weaponizing them into a horde of neo-Odinist Viking berserkers who will scream down out of Scandinavia and storm the EU Parliament in Brussels smelling of akvavit and fermented shark.

These Putin-Nazi disinformationists are not to be confused with the corporate media, or other sources of real information, like SafeGuard Cyber, Global Security Review, Bellingcat, Integrity Initiative, The Atlantic Council, E.U. East StratCom Task Force, Foreign Policy Research Institute, and countless other companies, foundations, think tanks, and intelligence agency fronts. These are legitimate information providers, who would never try to disinform the public to serve any sort of corporatist agenda, or to generate any kind of mass hysteria over “terrorists,” “Russians,” “fascists,” or “populists.”

OK, granted, these sources are not perfect, but it’s not like they intentionally lied about those non-existent WMDs in Iraq, or those babies that weren’t yanked out of their incubators, or those nerve gas canisters that Assad didn’t drop, or when Russia didn’t hack the Vermont power grid, or attack us with crickets, or hack into CSPAN, or “collude” with Trump via a secret server, or when Manafort didn’t meet with Assange, or when Corbyn didn’t lay a wreath for terrorists, and all the other things that didn’t happen … no, they just got their stories “wrong,” over and over, and over again.

Plus, what motive would they possibly have, these enormous corporate media conglomerates, and the transnational corporations that own them, and these intelligence agencies, and their fronts and cutouts, and corporate lobbyists and PR firms, and councils, and think tanks, and research institutes, to disinform the Western masses, or to manufacture an official narrative that allows them to systematically stigmatize, marginalize, criminalize, deplatform, demonetize, and otherwise eliminate any type of speech they deem to be “Russian disinformation,” or “extremist content,” or a “conspiracy theory,” or simply too “dangerous,” “divisive,” or “confusing” to circulate among the general public?

No … see? That makes no sense. That’s just an example of the type of fascist disinformation these Putin-Nazi disinformationists are trying to spread to confuse us to the point where we can’t even concentrate long enough to think anymore, or parse the meaningless jargon-laden nonsense they’re trying to deceive us with, and just devolve into these Pavlovian imbeciles conditioned to respond to specific trigger words, like “extremist,” “terrorist,” “fascist,” “populist,” “anti-Semitic,” “Russians,” “hackers,” and whatever other emotional stimuli we are being trained to instantly recognize and robotically react to like circus animals.

Or … I don’t know, maybe it isn’t. I’m not even sure what I’m trying to say. Probably they’ve already got to me. I’d better get back down into my anti-disinformation bunker, pull up The Guardian, or The Washington Post, or Der Spiegel on my child-proof computer, and immerse myself in some objective journalism, before the Putin-Nazi spywhale makes its way up the Landwehrkanal, takes control of what’s left of my mind, and forces me into going out and trying to vote for Hitler or something.

I recommend you do the same, and I’ll see you when this nightmare over.

*  *  *

C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and political satirist based in Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing (UK) and Broadway Play Publishing (USA). His debut novel, ZONE 23, is published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant Paperbacks. He can be reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WUk6xK Tyler Durden

Top of your class? Who cares! 

A High School in Mason, Ohio has eliminated their valedictorian salutatorian honors in order to help the “mental wellness” of other students,” according to Fox19. 

Instead of the two honors bestowed on the two highest achievers, Mason High School located in a Cincinnati suburb will stick with the Latin honors system – awarding students with a 4.0 GPA summa cum laude, those with a 3.75 – 3.99 GPA magna cum laude, and those with a GPA between 3.51 and 3.74 as cum laude. 

The school is also going to begin classes 30 minutes later next year, and are also considering reducing the amount of homework after school and during summer vacation.

If only the real world were so accommodating! 

“This will help reduce the overall competitive culture at MHS to allow students to focus on exploring learning opportunities that are of interest to them,” said Principal Bobby Dodd.

“Currently, we’ve recognized one valedictorian and one salutatorian based upon the ranking of students according to their weighted GPA. Although Mason High School utilizes class rank to determine these graduation honors for each senior class, the ranking of students is not reported to colleges. The paradoxical nature of class rank within the culture of MHS does nothing to decrease the competition among students.”

Whatever that means. 

The new recognition system sans valedictorian and salutatorian awards will begin with students graduating in the class of 2020, so all those straight-A freshmen and sophomores who were dead set on being the best will have to settle for a group participation award. 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2HFXknh Tyler Durden

Submitted by J. Theodore Schatt,

The dispute between the White House and House Democrats ended up in the Courts this week for a determination of “appropriate oversight”.

1. A review of the United States Constitution will be of no assistance in resolution of the matter.  Oversight is not an enumerated power of Congress.  Instead, it is understood that in order for Congress to carry out its own responsibilities under the Constitution, Congress must have the authority to gain necessary information from the Executive branch.  

2. The Judicial branch has previously determined that so long as the request has a legitimate legislative purpose the request is proper. 

It appears without question that the House demands from the Executive Branch will have a legitimate legislative purpose.  For example, Mr. Nadler has demanded all back-up documentation for the Mueller Report, including the information that by law may not be disclosed.  Clearly, a review of this information could permit Congress to determine that FISA laws must be amended to protect a constitutional right to privacy from overzealous, or biased, government agents.  That isn’t what Mr. Nadler has in mind, but it would be a “legitimate legislative purpose”.

However, the more interesting issue the Courts may be called upon to determine is whether the current oversight efforts by the House, despite having a “legitimate legislative purpose” are so obviously aimed at weaponizing the oversight authority of the House for political gain that acquiescence to such use would be destructive to the balance of power between the three branches of government.  President Nixon faced articles of Impeachment for endeavoring “to obtain from the Internal Revenue Service, in violation of the constitutional rights of citizens, confidential information contained in income tax returns…”  Should Mr. Nadler and his committee be given authority to act in a manner, through “oversight”, that cannot be exercised by the Executive?

Recent history evidences a Democrat party that is perfectly willing to test the boundaries of their constitutional power for political benefit.  After demanding that Senator McConnell protect the filibuster of judges nominated by President Bush for fear of destroying the Senate, Senator Reid reversed course and eliminated the filibuster to permit judges nominated by President Obama to be confirmed with a simple majority.  Democrats feigned outrage when the filibuster was eliminated to permit Justice Gorsuch to avoid a purely politically motivated filibuster and ascend to the Supreme Court.  Prior to the election of 2016, the intelligence operations of the United States were weaponized based upon an opposition research operation paid for by the Clinton Campaign. 

Subsequent to the election in 2016, the Department of Justice was weaponized based upon the same opposition research resulting in a nearly three year investigation that failed to substantiate the core allegations of that Clinton opposition research.  In September 2018, the entire country was witness to the shamelessly attempted character assassination of Justice Brett Kavanaugh masquerading as the “advise and consent” role of the Senate. 

That spectacle was too much even for the mild mannered Sen. Lindsey Graham. 

Senator Graham utilized a portion of his time to chastise Democrats for their actions,

“Boy, you [Democrats] all want power. God, I hope you never get it. I hope the American people can see through this sham. … To my Republican colleagues, if you vote no, you’re legitimizing the most despicable thing I have seen in my time in politics.”

Mr. Nadler’s attempted use of House oversight for nakedly political means should be no less odorous.  Even cloaked in a “legitimate legislative purpose”, the abuse of legitimate government authority for political gain should be decried by all.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WdOcj3 Tyler Durden

It appears that Trump’s aggressive trade war escalation is proving the doubters wrong and already bearing fruit.

Earlier on Wednesday, President Trump signed an executive order declaring a “national emergency” in permitting the US federal government to legally block American companies from purchasing foreign-made telecom equipment deemed a national security risk. The move is expected to restrict Huawei and fellow Chinese telecommunications company ZTE from selling their equipment in the U.S. Shortly afterward, the Department of Commerce said it had put Huawei on a blacklist that could forbid it from doing business with American companies.

In the executive order, while Trump did not name any company specifically, it was the latest action in the ongoing security saga with Huawei. The order reads that “openness must be balanced by the need to protect our country against critical national security threats.”

Separately, the Commerce Department’s move to put Huawei on its “Entity List” means U.S. companies will need a special license to sell products to the Chinese company. A similar move against ZTE last year nearly forced the company to shut down before Trump intervened and a deal was reached.

As a result of allegations it works covertly with the Chinese government to facilitate industrial and other espionage, Huawei has been banned from building the 5G networks in the US, in Australia, and numerous other countries – if not in Europe, where the local liberal elite would rather be spied on by Beijing than appear to fold to the demands of the White House – after concerns were raised that the company’s products may be used by the Chinese government for surveillance.

And just a few hours after Trump signed the executive order, the Chinese telco released a statement in response to the US ban, in which while it warned that the country will lag behind in 5G networks made by “inferior” or “more expensive alternatives.”

Yet while Huawei leaders have long insisted their company operates independently of the Chinese government and that its products aren’t used for spying, it appeared to confirm just that when the company said that it is “ready and willing to engage with the U.S. government and come up with effective measures to ensure product security.”

Why Huawei needs to ensure product safety if, as it claims, its products are safe is certainly worth a scratch on the head, and if anything it validates Trump’s suspicions about Huawei’s less then noble motives, which resulted in the US leveling 23 charges against Huawei and its CFO, and daughter of the CEO, Meng Wanzhou including charges of violating trade sanctions with Iran and attempted theft of trade secrets. Huawei has, of course,  maintained that it is all a “political” game with no credence.

Huawei’s full statement is below.

“Huawei is the unparalleled leader in 5G. We are ready and willing to engage with the US government and come up with effective measures to ensure product security. Restricting Huawei from doing business in the US will not make the US more secure or stronger; instead, this will only serve to limit the US to inferior yet more expensive alternatives, leaving the US lagging behind in 5G deployment, and eventually harming the interests of US companies and consumers. In addition, unreasonable restrictions will infringe upon Huawei’s rights and raise other serious legal issues.”

Trump’s order is clearly meant to ratchet up pressure on Beijing to concede in the trade war; and just to make sure Xi Jinping has a few days to contemplate the latest US retaliation, the Commerce Department’s blacklisting of Huawei isn’t effective until it’s listed in the Federal Register. The department didn’t say when that would occur. The administration official said Wednesday that the Commerce Department was expected to take as long as six months to fashion an approach to the order, so there might not be an immediate effect. The government may eventually prohibit products from specific companies or countries as Commerce carries out Trump’s order.

Last week, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission barred China Mobile Ltd. from the U.S. market over national security concerns and said it was opening a review of other Chinese companies.

Finally, in addition to getting Tom Friedman and Steve Bannon to agree on something, Trump’s hard line stance against China appears to be earning him some very unexpected friends: democrats. “This is a needed step, and reflects the reality that Huawei and ZTE represent a threat to the security of U.S. and allied communications networks,” said Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2VuIhS2 Tyler Durden

After a three-decade boom, the implosion of the Australian housing market could eventually push the economy into a recession.

Sydney median home prices are currently at $780,000, sitting 14.5% lower than in July 2017, adding to concerns the housing bubble has popped will send the economy into a recession and force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to slash interest rates below 1%.

Last week, the RBA slashed its growth forecasts as the housing market slowdown has led to a decline in household spending. Rate traders are pricing in several interest rate cuts this year after it decided against easing.

“Growth in the Australian economy has slowed and inflation remains low,” the RBA said. “Subdued growth in household income and the adjustment in the housing market are affecting consumer spending and residential construction.”

Suburbs like Liverpool, Wiley Park, Eastlakes, Bondi Beach, and Bondi are considered the most vulnerable housing markets to crash this year, reported Real Estate Institute of New South Wales (REINSW).

The analysis also indicated suburbs like Glebe, Parramatta, Fairfield, and Redfern would see further price declines.

Most of these suburbs have at least 50% of the homes owned by investors for rentals, making their price vulnerable if investors need liquidity.

“The data identifies those suburbs that have a high proportion of rental properties and which have already suffered double-digit falls in property values,” said REINSW CEO, Tim McKibbin.

McKibbin said the possibility of new government policies could cause investors to sell will reduce demand at a time when liquidity is needed. This, in turn, will cause market panic.

“On this basis, new policies that cause investors to exit will reduce the number of buyers in the market further. This in turn will escalate the losses in valuem” he added.

Tregear is No. 21 on the most vulnerable list, could have home prices drop if Labor wins the May 18 federal election and outlaws negative gearing, according to recent research.

Negative gearing is a form of financial leverage whereby an investor borrows money to invest, and the income from the investment is less than interest repayments and outgoings.

Real estate news website Domain has shown that Tregear, a suburb of Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, has homes selling for less than the median price.

Earlier this month, a listing at 36 Mawson Road sold for $395,000, below the $400,000 median price for the suburb.

“I find it’s quite good but it’s rare. If you put it on the market you don’t have too many seven-bedroom houses. It’s going to be popular,” said the seller’s agent Basel Nahas of Laing and Simmons Mount Druitt.

“You see some now sell under $400,000. It’s a popular price range and if the market improves you won’t see that anymore.”

Of the 50 vulnerable suburbs on the list, 44 had 10% or more declines in property prices YoY.

“These property markets have already suffered significantly under the property downturn, any policy that reduces buyer activity further is going to undermine prices further,” McKibbin warned.

The slowdown in the housing market could ruin Australia’s 27-year party of no recessions.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2VvzSh3 Tyler Durden

Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

Here we have a most interesting collection of signage. Some low-level civil servant who’s in charge of deciding what the motorist may do at this particular junction has become quite thorough in creating restrictions.

The motorist may not proceed, may not turn left or right, and, most interestingly, in the second sign from the bottom, may not reverse out. In essence, “You’re stuck here and whatever you do to get out, you’re in violation of the rules we’ve placed upon you.”

Of course, if we were to encounter this particular intersection, we might say, “That’s absurd – they can’t possibly hold me to this.”

But, interestingly, under the traffic laws, a policeman can cite us for violating the signage. If we’re lucky, he might agree that it’s absurd and give us a break, but his job is to enforce it, regardless of its absurdity. And if he enjoys his position of authority, as many in his position do, he just may choose to demonstrate his power.

And, if we defy him, we’re in real trouble.

How many laws exist in the US today? The answer is that no one knows. It’s too complex to define. There are roughly 20,000 laws regarding gun control alone – and that’s just the federal laws. State, county and city laws also exist in abundance.

The level of governmental dominance now exists to such a degree that literally everyone is a criminal, whether they know it or not. It’s been estimated that the average American commits about three felonies per day, in addition to many lesser crimes. If, for any reason, the authorities wished to victimize you, they’d find their task quite simple.

Yet, there’s a general assumption amongst those who simply accept the laws that are heaped upon their shoulders, that they were somehow “necessary,” that legislators only pass laws if they have no other choice.

In my estimation, this view is diametrically opposite to what is true. One of my own principles regarding governance is,

“It is the primary business of any government to grow its own power and wealth at the expense of its people.”

This is an important principle to understand, as it opens the mind to recognize that governments always move in a direction of increased control. Given enough time, governments will always create a state of despotism. And, historically, no government has ever reversed its level of control and introduced greater liberty.

It then follows that each country is in the process of becoming increasingly tyrannical. The only difference between them is the degree of tyranny that’s been achieved so far.

Liberty and governmental control are polar opposites. Yet, most people have a rather vague perception of the term “liberty” and might even find it difficult to define. This is unfortunate, as it means that, when liberty is lost, those same people will be unlikely to recognize the fact.

Here are two good working definitions of liberty, courtesy of the dictionary:

“The power or scope to act as one pleases.”

“The state of being free within society from oppressive restrictions imposed by authority on one’s way of life, behavior, or political views.”

The first is interesting, as it suggests that liberty means each person doing exactly as he pleases. Doug Casey often offers a similarly simple, but more refined rule of life:

“Do as thou wilt, but be prepared to accept the consequences.”

The latter dictionary definition is probably in keeping with the perception of most Americans around 1800, but today’s American would caution that, “Ideally, that would be true, but without our current laws and regulations, there’d be chaos.

Libertarians would disagree and offer only two principles that they believe would largely negate the need for laws:

“Do all that you say that you’ll do and don’t initiate aggression against another person or his property.”

And, again, non-libertarian thinkers would shake their heads and assert that this would result in chaos. Americans have become indoctrinated to believe this through slow measures. As Thomas Jefferson said,

“Even under the best forms of Government, those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.”

The key to governmental domination is that we tend to tolerate the loss of liberty if it’s taken away slowly.

In the US, liberty has been in decline, by my reckoning, for about one hundred years, but has been in rapid decline since 2001.

Of course, in all countries, at some point, the governmental domination becomes so intolerable that the people rise up. Revolution follows – a period of great upheaval and hardship. Eventually, a recovery begins and the entire process starts over.

It stands to reason that the best place to be is a country that has already recovered and is in the reconstruction stage – a time when liberty is at its greatest.

The US was in this stage in the nineteenth century – a period of great expansion and development.

However, by the mid-twentieth century, the rot had set in. America was past its peak and was ready to begin the final, and most rapid, period of decline.

At that time, the Russian Ayn Rand, living in the US, stated,

“We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens may act only by permission; which is the stage of the darkest periods of human history, the stage of rule by brute force.”

At the time Ms. Rand made this statement, she was largely dismissed. After all, Americans had never seen riot squads, dressed in black and heavily-armed, barging into homes without a warrant.

Authorities did not yet have the legal right to confiscate all of the possessions of an individual, based upon suspicion alone.

Yet, this is exactly what Ms. Rand warned against when she said, “the stage of total dominance is fast approaching.”

In reflection, we can have a laugh at the signage above, as it was clearly created by a low-level civil servant who was careless with his own puffed-up authority to the point of creating an absurdity.

But, in the larger picture, the signs are equally in place. Liberty in the US, at this point, is all but extinguished. And greater restrictions are being written every day.

The reader is left with a choice. He can either accept the signs that tell him he’s not allowed to go left, right, forward or back and wait until his government instructs him as to what he’s allowed to do, or he may say, “That’s it – I’m reversing out of here and finding a location where liberty is still in abundance.”

*  *  *

For too long, careless governments have used shortsighted strategies to prop up major world economies and prolong their time in power. This can only go on for so long… In this urgent special report, Doug Casey and his team reveal why an unprecedented global financial disaster is now inevitable—and what you can do to protect yourself. Click here to download the PDF now.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WLNgzh Tyler Durden

If shipping is an indicator of the direction the economy is heading, look out. 

The Cass Freight Index report for the month ended April 2019 paints a dire picture for freight heading into the end of the second quarter. The report says that “continued decline” in the freight index remains a concern, pointing out that shipments have fallen 3.4% year over year while expenditures have risen 6.2%. Sequentially on a monthly basis, shipments are down 0.3% while expenditures ticked up 0.7%. 

From the report, Cass Information Systems says:

• When the December 2018 Cass Shipments Index was negative for the first time in 24 months, we dismissed the decline as reflective of a tough comparison. When January 2019 was also negative, we again made rationalizations. Then February was down -2.1% and we said, “While we are still not ready to turn completely negative in our outlook, we do think it is prudent to become more alert to each additional incoming data point on freight flow volume, and are more cautious today than we have been since we began predicting the recovery of the U.S. industrial economy and the rebirth of the U.S. consumer economy in the third quarter of 2016.”
• When March was down -1.0%, we warned that we were preparing to ‘change tack’ in our economic outlook.

• With April down -3.2%, we see material and growing downside risk to the economic outlook. We acknowledge that: all of these still relatively small negative percentages are against extremely tough comparisons; the two-year stacked increase was 6.6% for April; and the Cass Shipments Index has gone negative before without being followed by a negative GDP. We also submit that at a minimum, business expansion plans should be moderated or have contingency plans for economic contraction included.

• The initial Q1 ’19 GDP report of 3.2% suggests the economy is growing faster than is reflected in the Cass Shipments Index. Our devolvement of GDP explains why the apparent disconnect is not as significant as it first appears.

• The weakness in spot market pricing for many transportation services, especially trucking, is consistent with the negative Cass Shipments Index and, along with airfreight and railroad volume data, heightens our concerns about the economy and the risk of ongoing trade policy disputes.

Additionally, the report notes that it is “concerned about the severe declines in international airfreight volumes (especially in Asia) and the recent swoon in railroad volumes in auto and building materials. We see the weakness in spot market pricing for transportation services, especially in trucking, as consistent with and a confirmation of the negative trend in the Cass Shipments Index. As volumes of chemical shipments have lost momentum in recent weeks, despite the rally in the price of WTI crude, our concerns of the global slowdown spreading to the U.S., and the trade dispute reaching a ‘point of no return’ from an economic perspective, grow.”

The report also acknowledges what it calls “storm clouds on the economic horizon”, including:

1. The tariffs — and threats of even higher tariffs — with China, the world’s second largest economy (even though the latest headlines and tweets keep suggesting there will be a resolution). Tariffs have throttled export volumes in some areas of the U.S. economy, most notably agriculture exports and other select raw materials. We maintain the view that there will be a resolution; that there will be a trade deal because both China and the U.S. have to reach one. But the recent Asian airfreight volumes suggest a growing risk that one or more of the Asian economies (China, South Korea, Singapore) is already sliding into recession. Risk has gotten worse.
2. The decline in WTI crude in December to as low as $42.50 a barrel. This did not fall below the marginal cost of production for fracked crude in almost all areas of the U.S., but it made it less profitable and significantly lowered the incentive to drill ever more holes, effectively slowing the rate of growth in the industrial economy. Crude’s ongoing rally (WTI above $61 as we write this) gives us reprieve. Continued strength in the price of crude makes us more confident in our positive outlook for the U.S. industrial economy and less worried about global demand. Risk has gotten so much better that it has arguably become a positive.
3. Consistent with disappointing housing starts (down -10.6% in February and – 13.0% in March) and lackluster auto sales (down -4.5% in April and -2.2% YTD), spot pricing in transportation has declined dramatically. Especially in trucking, spot pricing has reached levels below contract that will drive weakness in contract pricing and eliminate, or at least significantly reduce, all capital investment other than maintenance cap ex. This puts further downward pressure on growth in coming periods.

The report also observes a stunning falloff in Asian airfreight volumes:

Asian airfreight volumes were essentially flat from June to October 2018, but have since deteriorated at an accelerating pace (November -3.5%, December -6.1%, January – 5.4%, February -13.3%, March -3.3%). If the overall volume wasn’t distressing enough, the volumes of the three largest airports (Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Incheon) are experiencing the highest rates of contraction. Even more alarming, the inbound volumes for Shanghai have plummeted. This concerns us since it is the inbound shipment of high value/low density parts and pieces that are assembled into the high-value tech devices that are shipped to the rest of the world. Hence, in markets such as Shanghai, the inbound volumes predict the outbound volumes and the strength of the high-tech manufacturing economy.

The report was published a few days after ACT Research released their May installment of their ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and  Volume OUTLOOK report covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors. Its outlook report was also pessimistic, as it noted that dry van truckload spot rates, net of fuel, were down 19% year over year in April and more than 3% on a monthly sequential basis. 

ACT analyst Kenny Vieth said: “We continue to believe the accelerating supply-demand imbalance and large new vehicle inventories will trigger a correction sometime in the latter half of this year. Hence, we remain cautious into the end of this year and early next.” 

Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst wrote: “While we see reasons for recovery in the second half of 2019, escalating trade tensions raise the risk of freight recession. Class 8 tractor retail sales are on fire, adding capacity to the market at an unfortunate time for truckers. Shippers are increasingly targeting freight cost savings, likely emboldened by attractive rates in the spot market.”

In early May we noted that Class 8 heavy truck orders were not “on fire” but, rather, had been decimated, down 57% year over year. 

North American Class 8 net order data showed the industry booked 14,800 units in April, down 57% from a year-ago. The number also marks a sequential decrease of 6.2% from March. The decline is being blamed on companies filling orders from a bloated backlog of last year’s record purchases and buyers juggling remaining orders. The numbers from last month were the lowest for an April since 2016.

Year to date, the numbers continue to look ugly. There have been 63,000 trucks ordered, a 63% percent decline from the 169,186 orders placed during the same period in 2018. And it doesn’t look like the rest of the year is going to get any better. 

Vieth concluded: 

“We continue to contend that current order weakness has more to do with very large Class 8 backlogs and orders already booked, than with the evolving supply-demand balance. Of course, contracting freight volumes, falling freight rates, and strong Class 8 capacity additions suggest that the supply-demand balance will become an issue later this year.”

Finally, for all those who find the above too long or involved, here is the one chart that summarizes everything said above without needing much commentary.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Yt4IsP Tyler Durden

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

American farmers are being pushed to the brink by government policies.  Most have had enough of the trade war and are increasingly becoming impatient with their financial instability and worsening regulatory burdens placed on their backs.

Bankruptcies are skyrocketing, food prices are expected to soar, and American farmers are losing patience with their inability to keep up. For the most part, farmers have stood behind president Donald Trump’s mission to get a better trade deal with China. One that addresses long-standing issues with what they say are “unfair trading practices,” however, they now seem to be in the crosshairs of the feud.

After weeks of optimistic statements by Trump and members of his administration about how trade talks were progressing, Trump abruptly escalated tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods last week and opened the door to even more. This move prompted Beijing to hit back Monday by raising the tariff rate on $60 billion of US items, according to reporting by CNN.

Some farmers are even saying Trump now “owes” them a solution to the problems they face because of his policies.

“The President of the United States owes farmers like myself some type of plan of action,” John Wesley Boyd Jr., a soybean farmer in Baskerville, Virginia, told CNN‘s Brianna Keilar on Monday.

“Farmers were his base. They helped elect this president… and now he’s turning his back on America’s farmers when we need him the most,” he added.

The sad truth is that the woes that farmers have come face to face with will impact every single person who purchases food. We’ll all see fewer products for higher prices with the potential for a full-blown food crisis in the near future. Soybean, corn, and wheat growers have been battling tariffs from China for nearly a year now. Beijing imposed those duties in retaliation to tariffs put on Chinese products by the Trump administration. The tariffs made those American agricultural products more expensive for Chinese importers, and private buyers have mostly stopped buying American-grown soybeans or wheat because of said tariffs.

With no end to this economic disaster in sight, farmers have begun to grow worried and impatient with the Trump administration. Our speculation is that Trump never had a deal with China worked out in the first place.  His goal has always been to try to “stick it” to the Chinese, however, in doing so, he’s punishing the American farmer, consumer, and business owner more than the Chinese government.  It’s simply not working, and while we understand why Trump started the trade war, it’s hard to understand why he insists on continuing and amplifying it.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Jn6tUZ Tyler Durden

The White House said on Wednesday that while it stands by the international community in “condemning terrorist and violent extremist content online,” that it is “not currently in a position” to join a call to action in the name of the Christchurch shootings, spearheaded by New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and French President Emmanuel Macron.

“The United States stands with the international community in condemning terrorist and violent extremist content online in the strongest terms,” the White House said in a statement, adding that it’s “not currently in a position to join the endorsement,” citing First Amendment concerns, and adding that “the best tool to defeat terrorist speech is productive speech.” 

“We continue to be proactive in our efforts to counter terrorist content online while also continuing to respect freedom of expression and freedom of the press,” the statement continued. Later in the day, the White House tweeted that the administration is “fighting for free speech online,” while sharing a link to a government website where people can share their experiences with tech bias and censorship. 

Those who have joined the  pact include the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, Italy, India, German and Spain – while technology firms including Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are participating as well. 

Just landed in Paris, with a busy few days ahead. First, the Christchurch Call to Action meeting, where world leaders & social media companies will meet to take action against violence & hate online. Then, I’ll speak at @VivaTech about restoring trust in the digital world.

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) May 15, 2019

Ms. Ardern has used the Christchurch killings to rally support for increased vigilance toward keeping violent and extremist content off the world’s largest internet platforms. Facebook, Twitter, Google, Microsoft and Amazon have vowed to monitor their services more aggressively for material that encourages and facilitates violence. –NYT

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2VrSAGm Tyler Durden