Author: admin

President Donald Trump and the First Lady greeted three American prisoners freed from North Korea early Thursday morning when they arrived at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.

BREAKING: President Donald Trump personally welcomes back three Americans as they arrive at a military base outside Washington after their release from North Korea https://t.co/Io4r80IUmZ pic.twitter.com/efqzFbgx27

— CNN (@CNN) May 10, 2018

According to ABC, the men are Korean-American missionary Kim Dong-chul, who was detained in 2015 and sentenced in 2016 to 10 years of hard labor; Kim Sang-duk, also known as Tony Kim, who taught at the foreign-funded Pyongyang University of Science and Technology before he was arrested in 2017; and Kim Hak-song, who also taught at the university and was detained last year.

“The fact we were able to get them out so soon was a tribute to a lot of things,” said Trump, standing on the tarmac at Andrews, surrounded by journalists and cameras. “I just want to say, this is a special night.”

“I’m very honored to have helped these great folks, but the true honor is going to be if we have a victory in getting rid of nuclear weapons,” Trump continued. “We have a meeting scheduled in a very short period of time. We have the location set. We’ll see if we can do something that people did not think was going to happen for many, many years.”

Trump announced on Twitter a day earlier that the three men were on their way home with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. During remarks delivered after the brief tarmac homecoming, Trump praised North Korea for freeing them.

On behalf of the American people, WELCOME HOME! pic.twitter.com/hISaCI95CB

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2018

After the men safely deplaned, Trump said that the date and location of the historic US-North Korea summit would be revealed in a few days, saying that a decision has been made.

This had been Pompeo’s second trip to North Korea in the past month, following a clandestine visit over Easter Weekend where he met with Kim and laid the groundwork for the US-North Korea summit (which will likely be held in Singapore) and also made the case that the release of the prisoners was paramount. Pompeo is the highest-ranking US official to meet with Kim. Pompeo’s trip wasn’t announced until Trump revealed that his plane was already in the air on Tuesday.

BREAKING: President Donald Trump personally welcomes back three Americans as they arrive at a military base outside Washington after their release from North Korea https://t.co/Io4r80IUmZ pic.twitter.com/efqzFbgx27

— CNN (@CNN) May 10, 2018

White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Wednesday that the president “appreciates leader Kim Jong Un’s action to release these American citizens, and views this as a positive gesture of goodwill.”

“The three Americans appear to be in good condition and were all able to walk on the plane without assistance. All Americans look forward to welcoming them home and to seeing them reunited with their loved ones.”

Kim Dong Chul, a South Korean-born businessman and pastor, was in custody for more than 900 days following his October 2015 arrest on allegations he was trying to meet with a former North Korean soldier to receive classified information.

He has also been accused by the North of working with South Korea’s spy agency, which denied any involvement. Kim had been sentenced to 10 years of hard labor in April 2016.

Trump boarded the plane to shake hands and speak briefly with the men in private. Later, he said that the prisoners’ release is a sign that Kim wants to step back “into the real world” – adding that he’s hopeful a major breakthrough is coming, per Reuters.

“Frankly we didn’t think it was going to happen and it did,” Trump said after thanking Kim for releasing the men.

“We’re starting off on a new footing. This is a wonderful thing that he released the folks early.”

[…]

“I think we have a very good chance of doing something very meaningful,” Trump said.

“My proudest achievement will be – this is part of it – when we denuclearize that entire peninsula.”

After meeting with Trump, the three men traveled to Walter Reed for a medical evaluation.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2G3h6pI Tyler Durden

As was widely anticipated following the recent disappointing economic data out of the UK, the Bank of England announced it kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in a 7-2 vote, with Saunders and McCafferty dissenting.

We have kept interest rates at 0.5%. Find out more at: https://t.co/IYVjB9UHUw #InflationReport pic.twitter.com/kopH2BzDKc

— Bank of England (@bankofengland) May 10, 2018

As also expected, the BOE Committee also voted unanimously to keep its various QE programs unchanged.

However, the reason for the sharp kneejerk reaction lower in cable was the unexpectedly sharp cut in the BOE’s growth and inflation outlooks. The preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter was 0.1%, 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in February.  According to the BOE, This is likely in part to have reflected adverse weather in late February and early March.” However, the Committee also believes that the slowing in Q1 GDP growth has been overstated in the prelim release and believe that over time Q1 will be revised higher to 0.3% and thereafter look for 0.4% in Q2.

Of greater importance was the BOE’s view on Inflation, which is now seen as cooling faster than previously expected: the 2.5% CPI in March was lower than expected in the Feb QIR. Inflation rates of the most import-intensive components of CPI appear to have peaked. Impact of GBP depreciation while remains significant, is likely to fade a little faster than previously thought. CPI target is expected to be met in two years.

Other key observations:

• Rates: No mention of the historical guidance of: rates will need to rise at a somewhat faster pace and greater extent than markets are currently pricing in. Reiterated that any future rate increases were likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.
• Brexit: Minutes offer no new view by the MPC on the matter
• Wages: Wage growth are firming gradually and broadly as expected.
• Labour market: Hiring intentions remain strong and the unemployment rate has fallen slightly further over the past 3 months.
• Slack: MPC continues to judge that the UK economy has a limited degree of slack
• Case for unchanged: Members saw value in seeing how data unfolded in the coming months and to see whether softness in Q1 would persist.
• Case for lifting rates: Saw Q1 GDP as erratic and due to temp factors. Placed more weight on labour data and business surveys. Reduction in pass-through of GBP on inflation would not materially impact the inflation profile in the medium term.

Separately, looking at the QIR report, while the 2018 GDP forecast was cut (2019 and 2020 maintained), the 2018, 2019, 2020 inflation all lowered. Key forecasts:

• GDP Growth: 2018 Q2: 1.4% (Prev.1.8 %), 2019 Q2: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%), 2020 Q2: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%), 2021 Q2: 1.7%
• CPI Inflation: 2018 Q2: 2.4% (Prev. 2.7%), 2019 Q2: 2.1% (Prev. 2.2%), 2020 Q2: 2.0% (Prev. 2.1%), 2021 Q2: 2.0%
• Unemployment Rate: 2018 Q2: 4.1% (Prev. 4.2%), 2019 Q2: 4.0% (Prev. 4.2%), 2020 Q2 4.0% (Prev. 4.1%), 2021 Q2: 4.0%
• Average Weekly Earnings: 2018: 2.75% (Prev. 3.0%), 2019: 3.25% (Prev. 3.25%), 2020: 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%)
• Above forecasts are based on the path for the Bank Rate implied by forward market interest rates. The implied Bank Rate at the time of the report by the end of the forecast period was 1.2%

In kneejerk response, cable has tumbled by 100 pips…

… and gilts are rallying as UK money markets price out any further rate hikes by the BOE in 2018 as the global dovish wave returns.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2G4L7p4 Tyler Durden

US futures are flat, and European stocks are little changed after their longest winning streak since mid-March following a barrage of overnight news, including a dramatic escalation in fighting between Israel and Syria/Iran, a shocking election victory in Malaysia where opposition leader Mahathir Mohamad ended the six-decade rule of Najib Razak’s party sending more shock waves among emerging markets, and the blessing by Bersluconi of a new, anti-establishment, populist government in Italy.

The busy news agenda offers no respite to investors this week, with tension between Israel and Iran mounting just days after U.S. President Donald Trump roiled the international community with his decision to ditch a nuclear accord with the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, the stage is set for a populist government to form in Italy, and traders are rapidly coming to terms with an election upset in Malaysia. Many will now be looking to American inflation data as a welcome diversion.

Meanwhile, it is Ascension Day holiday across several European countrie, leading to even poorer volumes, while the biggest economic catalyst of the week looms in the face of today’s US CPI print due in under 2 hours.

While the latest burst higher in US equities may have taken a breather, overnight Asian shares advanced, largely tracking oil as WTI crude rose to the highest since 2014, topping $71 on rising middle-eastern geopolitical fears. Having breached 3% for the second time in 2 week, 10Y Treasury yields, which have been driving up the greenback and exacting pain on emerging markets, dipped back under 3% to push the dollar toward its first drop in five days.

Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 Index drifted lower on what is a public holiday in various parts of the region, with markets closed in countries including Switzerland, Sweden, and Austria. The main risk overnight was that Italy’s 5 Star and League have made significant steps to form a government, and expect to finalize everything in a short time. Looking at Brexit, EU officials suggest that the EU is looking to find a way forward to maintain trade between the UK and EU post-Brexit despite having reservations about PM May’s current plans.

Earlier, the MSCI Asia Index rose 0.5%, thanks to broad-based gains in stocks around the region. The Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) and Hang Seng (+0.9%) shrugged off another liquidity drain by the PBoC to trade positive in which Hong Kong resumed its recent trend of outshining its regional peers, while participants also digested mixed Chinese inflation figures that showed CPI missed estimates at 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% although PPI growth gathered pace for the 1st time in 7-months to 3.4% as expected

• Chinese CPI (Apr) Y/Y 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.1%).
• Chinese PPI (Apr) Y/Y 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.1%)

The big story out of Asia was the shocking outcome of the Malaysian elections, where opposition leader Mahathir Mohamad’s surprise victory ended the six-decade rule of Najib Razak’s party and has investors bracing for further jolts across the EM space. While Malaysian markets were closed, trading in non-deliverable forwards suggested the ringgit will tumble Monday in the wake of the surprise ouster of the country’s ruling party. The 2045-maturity dollar bond also declined. The dip in the dollar, however, stabilized developing markets which signaled stability after days of losses, and the MSCI Emerging Market Index rallied for a fourth day.

Elsewhere in FX, the dollar fell alongside Treasury yields ahead of U.S. CPI data and an auction of 30-year debt on Thursday. The pound edged up ahead of the Bank of England policy decision, while the New Zealand dollar slipped to a five-month low after its central bank left the door open for a possible cut. The Bloomberg Dollar spot index fell for the first time in five days as the dollar slid against most of its G-10 peers, with the biggest gains seen in the Canadian dollar; benchmark Treasury yields slipped below the 3 percent level

“We find the reasons of the rally temporary in nature and by looking at past experience from dollar-depreciation cycles, we conclude that, as long as global growth holds up well, then the greenback should resume weakening on a multi-quarter basis,” according to Vasileios Gkionakis, head of currency strategy research at UniCredit Bank

Elsewhere, looking at today’s BOE decision, “what matters for the pound is whether Governor Carney is a man with or without conviction over future rate hikes,” according to ING Groep NV’s currency strategist Viraj Patel. A 7-2 split, Patel’s base-case scenario, would see sterling climb toward $1.36.

In geopolitics, the White House commented that the US is preparing to add additional sanctions on Iran as soon as next week. Overnight, the main event was the Israel Defense Forces conducting operations on Iran targets in Syria overnight.

Elsewhere, Deputy head of Iran’s revolutionary guards Salami said Europe cannot confront the US in the nuclear accord, adds diplomacy cannot help Iran, the only way is confrontation.

In commodities, energy prices are currently coming off overnight highs in which crude prices extended on the advances as traders adjust to supply disruption concerns in the wake of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement. Following this withdrawal, Israeli military have increased the number of strikes targeted at dozens of Iranian facilities in retaliation to an Iranian rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights, signalling a continued escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region. Yesterday’s DOE printed a larger than expected drawdown, providing some support to the complex. WTI (+0.7%) and Brent (+0.6%) crude prices are firmly above the USD 71.00/bbl and USD 77.00/bbl respectively. UBS expects Brent to trade at USD 80/bbl in 6 months (prior forecast at USD 65/bbl) and WTI to trade at a USD 5/bbl discount to Brent (prior USD 4/bbl discount). Elsewhere, gold prices are trading flat amid a slight easing of the greenback, while London copper saw modest gains on the back of lower inventories.

Economic data on Thursday include initial jobless claims and CPI. Nvidia, Telus and News Corp. are among companies due to release results

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,701.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.04% to 392.29
• MXAP up 0.5% to 173.78
• MXAPJ up 0.7% to 568.54
• Nikkei up 0.4% to 22,497.18
• Topix up 0.3% to 1,777.62
• Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 30,809.22
• Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,174.41
• Sensex up 0.05% to 35,335.91
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,118.75
• Kospi up 0.8% to 2,464.16
• German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.561%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1871
• Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.626%
• Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.308%
• Brent Futures up 0.6% to $77.69/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.03% to $1,313.11
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.06% to 92.99

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Trump personally welcomed home three Americans released from detention in North Korea, as he prepares for a landmark summit with Kim Jong Un
• Israel said it’s carrying out attacks inside Syria after Iranian forces based in that country fired a barrage of missiles at the Golan Heights
• Italian bonds slid after four-times premier Silvio Berlusconi dropped his opposition to a tie-up, giving the chances of a populist government ruling Italy a sizable boost
• Oil extended gains above $71 a barrel as a conflict between Israel and Iran ratcheted up, increasing prospects for tighter global supply after the U.S. renewed sanctions on OPEC’s third-largest producer
• With corporate-debt defaults on the rise, China’s securities regulator will probe bond funds to ensure that they have proper risk controls in place, according to people familiar with the matter
• Japanese investors sold U.S. sovereign bonds for a sixth month in March, while they added to holdings of French and German debt, according to the Ministry of Finance’s balance- of-payments data released Thursday
• Mahathir Mohamad’s surprise victory in Malaysia’s election ended the six-decade rule of Najib Razak’s party and has investors are bracing for further jolts as this news comes at a time when emerging markets are already under attack globally
• While money markets are betting officials will stay on hold this month, investors will look for any split among Bank of England’s MPC members to determine the chances of a rate increase this year
• Oil extended gains above $71 a barrel on the risk of supply disruptions as a conflict between Israel and Iran ratcheted up

Asian stocks traded positive across the board following the energy-fuelled upside on Wall St, where oil names outperformed as crude gained in the wake of Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement and DoEs. As such, ASX 200 (+0.2%) was led by the energy sector as oil edged fresh multi-year highs last seen in 2014 and with RBOB also at its best levels since mid-2015, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was also marginally higher amid earnings and with Mitsubishi Motors shares outpacing the broader market after it beat on its FY net and guided sales higher. Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) and Hang Seng (+0.9%) shrugged off another liquidity drain by the PBoC to trade positive in which Hong Kong resumed its recent trend of outshining its regional peers, while participants also digested mixed Chinese inflation figures that showed CPI missed estimates at 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% although PPI growth gathered pace for the 1st time in 7-months to 3.4% as expected. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with demand lacking amid gains in riskier assets while a 10yr inflation-indexed auction was also largely ignored and failed to spur price action.

Top Asian News

• Mahathir Set to Become Malaysian Prime Minister After Shock Win
• Li Ka-shing to Retire Today, Ending Storied Career of Top Tycoon
• Bank of China, JD.com to Promote Cooperation on Fintech
• Malaysia’s 1MDB Spurs Voter Backlash, Global Probes: QuickTake
• Philippines Raises Benchmark Rate as Inflation Battle Heats Up

European equites trading mostly lower (Eurostoxx 50 -0.4%) ahead of the BoE rate decision, with the energy and telecoms sectors underperforming (-1.1% and -1.3% respectively). This resulting from Randgold Resources and BT’s (-8.2% and -9.0% respectively) uninspiring earnings, as well as BT’s announcement of job cuts. Financials are lower by 0.3% while RBS’s (+4.3%) lower than expected pay-out on MBS sales during the financial crisis, and UniCredit’s (+0.9%) positive financial results. Italy’s FTSE MIB is underperforming on the recent Italian political developments. In stock specific news Next (+6.2%) raised guidance on warm weather boosting sales, and Alstom (+0.9%) announced a USD 3bln agreement with GE to exit multiple energy joint ventures.

Top European News

• Italian Production Rises in Positive Sign for Economic Output
• U.K. Construction Slumped in March as Snow Stalled Projects
• RBS Clears Path to Award Dividends After $4.9 Billion DOJ Deal
• UniCredit Pushes on Costs, Asset Quality to Affirm Leadership
• ITV’s Online Ad Sales and Production Boost McCall as TV Weakens

In FX, DXY is Losing a bit more impetus below 93.000 and looking for some support from US CPI data amidst expectations for firmer headline and core prints, but softer leads via PPI in the run up. NZD/AUD: A very dovish hold from the RBNZ last night has hit the Kiwi hard, as the Central Bank signalled an even more prolonged period of unchanged policy and 50-50 odds that the next move in the OCR could be up or down. Nzd/Usd subsequently dived from a recovery high not far from 0.7000 to within a few pips of 0.6900, while the Aud/Nzd cross catapulted to just over 1.0800 from circa 1.0700 and lower in recent sessions. Conversely and consequently, Aud/Usd has continued its rebound from near 0.7400 lows towards 0.7500, but could be capped by mega option expiry interest at the big figure spread over the next few days (5 bn in total from today to May 16). CAD: The Loonie continues to outperform G10 counterparts and climb alongside oil prices that have extended to the upside on the US-Iran nuclear deal breakdown and with draws in US crude inventories adding to supply concerns. Usd/Cad is now bids/support around 1.2775 vs peaks earlier in the week just over 1.3000 and may derive further direction from Canadian new house price data later (although the US inflation data is likely to be more influential for the pair).

In commodities, energy prices are currently coming off overnight highs in which crude prices extended on the advances as traders adjust to supply disruption concerns in the wake of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement. Following this withdrawal, Israeli military have increased the number of strikes targeted at dozens of Iranian facilities in retaliation to an Iranian rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights, signalling a continued escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region. Yesterday’s DOE printed a larger than expected drawdown, providing some support to the complex. WTI (+0.7%) and Brent (+0.6%) crude prices are firmly above the USD 71.00/bbl and USD 77.00/bbl respectively. UBS expects Brent to trade at USD 80/bbl in 6 months (prior forecast at USD 65/bbl) and WTI to trade at a USD 5/bbl discount to Brent (prior USD 4/bbl discount). Elsewhere, gold prices are trading flat amid a slight easing of the greenback, while London copper saw modest gains on the back of lower inventories.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 219,000, prior 211,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.8m, prior 1.76m
• 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
  • US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • US CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.4%
  • US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.1%
  • US CPI Index NSA, est. 250.7, prior 249.6
  • US CPI Core Index SA, prior 256.2
• Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.94%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.4%
• 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 56.5
• 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $212.0b, prior $208.7b deficit

via RSS https://ift.tt/2ItYKn6 Tyler Durden

Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

Market Liquidity in the face of a Tsunami of Evolutionary Creative Destruction

“The information’s unavailable to the mortal man. We work our jobs, collect our pay, believe we’re gliding down the highway….”

History is a great way to remind ourselves of the mistakes we’ve made, but I’m not convinced we learn much about the ones we’re about to make. Markets – they either love you or loath you. That’s the way many investors feel just now – get it right and smile. Get it wrong and its Game-over-player-1. Who knows if prices are going either up or down – or how long this sideways slip-sliding continues?

The news is confusing. Some folk say markets are priced for perfection – but I’d say their pricing for a slap as strategy becomes an increasingly binary looking call on so many issues: Do stock markets go up or down? Does trade or protectionism win? Is it short covering or a squeeze? Is the news good or bad? Rates, inflation, growth, recession, politics.. Sweet Jesus on a Raleigh Chopper.. I just don’t know..

My Macro economist Martin Malone tells me to stop listening to the noise, and focus on the big numbers – with zen-like transcendence, Martin reminds me “in numbers there is truth” and they show a clear strategy: Dump bonds, Buy risk.

But.. but.. and but again… My spidey senses are a tingle. I have a gut feel we’re in for a good healthy dose of creative destruction… When the market welcomes a bank being fined $4.9 bln, that’s a good thing… ???  Or when headlines speak of “Berlusconi green lighting an Italian populist government”, the market doesn’t panic more? When Argentina inevitably calls in the IMF, folk are surprised? What about Malaysia – and what we thought we knew about EM. Wake up and smell the coffee moments all around.

Its just noise.

Let’s start today with some numbers:

• Before Lehman’s collapse in 2008 the size of the US Corporate Bond market was US$2.8 trillion, and bond dealers kept inventory of around US$ 260bn. Today the US bond market is over $5.3 trillion, and dealer inventory is less than $40 bln. 10% liquidity wallet then, 0.7% now. Issuance in 2017 was over $1.7 trillion as corporates binged on cheap money. Hmm.
• Corporate Bond ETFs have risen from $20 bln to over $300 bln over the same period.
• The junk market has been pretty stable at around $300 bln issuance per annum, but as much cash for the weakest companies is now being raised through the leveraged loan – where much of it is packaged into CLOs.

Much of the issuance has come from the telecoms sector – to quote y’day’s WSJ: “Dish, founded by satellite tycoon Charlie Ergen, may be the Canary in the Coal Mine of the new tech landscape.” Junk bond investors have lent his companies more than $20 bln over the past 25 years.” Sure enough – the prices of Dish Bonds are down 26% since their peak!

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with lending money to challenging companies on the basis they pay a premium against the possibility they might go bust. Sure, there is concern that the hunt for yield and yield tourism has distorted markets and broken the relationship between credit and price, while the distortions of cheap QE money have fundamentally corrupted credit pricing and allowed covenant-lite issuance. Smart investors price it in.

But, there is something else at play – “the industry’s rapid evolution is outpacing Mr Ergen’s business strategy..” said the WSJ.

That’s worth thinking about a little more – much of the growth of recent years has been driven by innovation and disruption, especially in anything tech related. Think about the rise of Facebook, Uber, Amazon, Netflix and even Tesla; it’s clear they caused dramatic paradigm shifts, creating whole new industries and sectors. There are dozens of other tectonic movers and shakers in the works…And with every great idea there are appalling ones that such in the innocent and stupid alike – like crypto-currencies!

In short, a great tsunami of “Creative Destruction” has already been unleased upon the global economy. I doubt the world has ever experienced such rapid business evolution. Dish is just one example – it thrived, it evolved, but now its struggling to keep up and develop/protect its niche. Who is next? Take a look at another WSJ story for further  clues.

What about Facebook? At some point (maybe soon) everyone who wants to be on will be on, and the folk Facebook want aren’t interested – Millennials only use it to communicate with the Bank of Mum and Dad. Or how about Amazon – fascinating to watch retail behemoth Walmark pounce on the largest Indian net based seller. And, aside from the obvious financial problems, Tesla aint going to be the only exciting electric carmaker.

I guess the history lesson here is, like the railways, nothing lasts forever… and the pace of change is quickening.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2ryCRsq Tyler Durden

Authored by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,

• Under the new electoral laws, authorities would be able to appoint government officials to run ballot stations, relocate election stations on security grounds, let law-enforcement officials monitor voting, and permit the counting of unstamped ballot papers.

• “The risk of holding elections under the shadow of guns could put voters under pressure,” Uğur Bayraktutan, an opposition lawmaker, told a parliamentary committee, referring to the prospect of armed security forces in voting stations.

• Shortly after the 2017 referendum, an Austrian member of the Council of Europe said that up to 2.5 million Turkish votes could have been manipulated Since then, Erdoğan has further consolidated power by legislation (see new electoral laws) and law enforcement (see police brutality) increasing the risk of election fraud on June 24.

On Apr. 16, 2017 Turks voted to give away their democracy when 51.4% of them endorsed constitutional amendments that made President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan head of state and head of the ruling party — all at the same time.

Before the referendum, Erdoğan’s powerful state apparatus systematically silencedthe “No” campaign and its supporters while the “Yes” campaign enjoyed all possible government support, instrumentalized by means of public resources. The Turks went to the ballot box under a state of emergency – declared after a failed coup in July 2016. The co-leaders of a pro-Kurdish party who campaigned for ‘No’ had been imprisoned since November 2016 on charges of links with terror groups. In the 15 months leading up to the referendum the police had used violence to stop 264 peaceful demonstrations in favor of the ‘No’ campaign.

The witch-hunt included 47,155 people in jail, including 150 journalists; 113,260 under detention; and 135,000 people purged from government service. Jailed officials included 10,732 police officers, 168 military generals, 7,463 military officers, 2,575 judges and prosecutors and 208 governors and other public administrators.

Supporters of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) shout slogans and hold pictures of HDP’s nominated presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtas, at a rally on May 4, 2018 in Istanbul, Turkey. Demirtas was arrested in 2016 for “spreading propaganda,” and is still in prison. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) confirmed cases of intimidation against the ‘No’ campaign across the country.

There were worse signs of an unfair election race on the day of the referendum. Only an hour into the vote count, the Supreme Board of Elections declared as valid voting papers without official seals, a practice clearly in violation of the election laws. The opposition bloc claimed that in some cities the election observers from the ‘No’ groups were removed from their polling stations.

Slightly more than a year after they voted to give Erdoğan unprecedented executive powers, the Turks will vote again, on June 24, in early polls orchestrated by Erdoğan and his nationalist foe-turned-ally, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). The vote will be for both presidential and parliamentary elections. If any candidate fails to win more than 50% of the presidential vote a second round will be held on July 8, based on simple majority.

No doubt, this will be an existential election war for Erdoğan. He has done everything in his capacity to consolidate power and maximize chances for victory.

In January he launched a military incursion into northwest Syria and captured the Kurdish enclave of Afrin (still under Turkish military control), an operation largely aimed at winning nationalist/militaristic Turkish sympathies. Ninety percent of Turks said they supported Operation Olive Branch, indicating potential ballot box gains for Erdoğan in June elections.

In April, Erdoğan’s government announced incentives for 135 billion lira (approximately $32 billion) worth of investment projects creating 134,000 new jobs. Also in April, Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım announced a 24 billion lira (approximately $5.7 billion) worth of tax breaks and social transfers.

In what appeared to be a government orchestration Turkey’s biggest media group, Doğan Media Company (DMC), the last bastion of free journalism in the country, was sold to an Erdoğan crony in a $890 million deal. (In a leaked telephone conversation in 2014, DMC’s new owner, Erdoğan Demirören was heard apologizing to Erdoğan for an article in Milliyet newspaper – which he had earlier bought from Doğan. “Did I upset you, boss?” Demirören asked Erdoğan, weeping and promising the then prime minister that he would find the source of the article in question.). With DMC’s transfer to Demirören pro-Erdoğan media is estimatedto account for 90% of all media outlets in Turkey.

All that electioneering may not guarantee a double-elections victory for Erdoğan. Four opposition parties have pledged to unite behind a common candidate against Erdoğan in the second round of the race. They will also ally in parliamentary elections against Erdoğan’s conservative/nationalist bloc with MHP.

Enter the dark side of the moon. In March, Turkey’s parliament, controlled by Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party and its ally, MHP, passed sweeping changes to electoral laws designed to help Erdoğan tighten his grip on power.

The overhaul allows parties to ally with others which means smaller parties could bypass the 10% national threshold and win parliamentary representation. Erdoğan’s ally, MHP, is one of such smaller parties. The opposition’s counter move to form a four-party alliance could in theory balance the government/opposition breakdown.

The opposition also warns of election fraud, reminiscent of the allegations in the 2017 referendum. Under the new electoral laws, authorities would be able to appoint government officials to run ballot stations, relocate election stations on security grounds, let law-enforcement officials monitor voting, and permit the counting of unstamped ballot papers. “The risk of holding elections under the shadow of guns could put voters under pressure,” Uğur Bayraktutan, an opposition lawmaker, told a parliamentary committee, referring to the prospect of armed security forces in voting stations.

“The president knows that a small shift in votes could mean a defeat in a contest he cannot lose,” Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of Teneo Intelligence in London, told Bloomberg. “Further initiatives to maximize the chances of a positive outcome on ballot day are likely”.

Shortly after the 2017 referendum, an Austrian member of the Council of Europe said that up to 2.5 million Turkish votes could have been manipulated. Since then Erdoğan has further consolidated power by legislation (see new electoral laws) and law enforcement (see police brutality) increasing the risk of election fraud on June 24.

Once again, in Turkey, who votes for whom will matter less than who counts the vote.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2Ix2m85 Tyler Durden

Military rallies by armed forces took place across several major cities in Russia on May 09 to celebrate the 73rd anniversary of the Soviet Union’s march into Berlin and the victory over Germany in World War II.

Earlier this week, we learned that Russia would showcase its newest Kinzhal hypersonic missile and other high-tech military weapons during the upcoming military parade, which is primarily based in Moscow.

However, there are new reports that Russia will unveil a multifunctional reconnaissance and fire support “robot tank” that has been battle-tested in Syria, dubbed “Uranus-9,” a top defense official said.

The Uranus-9 robot tank in Moscow’s Red Square during a rehearsal of the upcoming military parade marking the 73rd anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, the Eastern Front of World War II. (Source: Sergei Savostyanov\TASS)

According to a recent report in Russia’s state-owned Channel Zvezda, Yuriy Borisov, one of the deputies to Russia’s defense minister confirmed that Russian Armed Forces tested the multifunctional reconnaissance and fire support robot tank during the Syrian civil war.

“All the presented weapons systems are in service with the Russian army or are in trial operation, most of the novelties have been tested in Syria,” the Russian Defence Ministry said. He also mentioned, “at this year’s Victory Parade, we will show robotic technology for the first time.”

The Uranus-9 robot tank participated in a field training exercise. (Source ZvezdaTVnews)

The Uranus-9 robot tank participated in a field training exercise. (Source ZvezdaTVnews)

The Uranus-9 robot tank participated in a field training exercise. (Source ZvezdaTVnews)

Among the robotic war machines, the Russian Defence Ministry listed, the Uranus-6, a robotic mine-clearing tank, and the Uranus-9, a tracked unmanned combat ground vehicle (UCGV) with cannons and missiles — designed to protect Russian troops through direct and indirect fire on the enemy.

The Russian Defence Ministry describes the Uranus-9, as a 12-ton radio-controlled robotic tank equipped with a PKTM machine gun, an automatic 30 mm 2A72 gun, and anti-tank guided missiles.

” It has a powerful armament that allows not only to hit live force and lightly armored vehicles, but also tanks, as well as other highly protected objects. It is equipped with anti-tank guided missiles “Attack”, 30-mm automatic cannon 2A72 and 7.62-mm machine gun.

“Uranus-9” is able to detect the target, but the decision to defeat it is taken only by the commander, who is together with the operator in an armored kung on the basis of the chassis of the KamAZ car. The maximum removal of the control point from the robot is 3 km. In the case of simultaneous application of four combat robots, the control range reaches 6 km. “Uranium-9″ is built into a single system of tactical control, having protection from unauthorized access and electronic warfare means.”

Three days ago, the Russian military released footage of Uranus-9 field tests at an undisclosed location performing war maneuvers.

Meanwhile, Channel Zvezda has confirmed Uranus-9 has been thoroughly tested in Syria — something military analysts suspected in 2017 but were not quite sure at what capacity. Russia’s defense minister estimated that the military field tested over 600 new vehicles, weapons, and service items in Syria.

“For the first time we are demonstrating robotics: robots of mine and a percussion robot, Uran-6 and Uran-9, which, incidentally, were also tested in Syria, demonstrated their capabilities well, we are now in the experimental combat operation of these models . What it is: we identify all those shortcomings, which, naturally, are inherent in the new technology, in order to timely make all the necessary changes and adapt it for the needs of the armed forces.”

Sputnik recently spots Uranus-9 robot tanks on the streets of Moscow.

From Kinzhal missiles to robot tanks: Top 6 premiers at the 2018 Moscow #VictoryDay Parade to watch out for https://t.co/aNc2cklmtd #Russia pic.twitter.com/K14FkNHPIp

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) May 6, 2018

via RSS https://ift.tt/2KNw1b8 Tyler Durden

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The West-Russia relations have reached a new low since the Cold War amid the spy poisoning scandal in the UK, allegations of Russian meddling in elections, and fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia.

Yet European countries continue to buy increased amounts of Russian gas, and Russia’s state-held gas giant Gazprom is boosting production and exports, and is obtaining approvals in individual countries for its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that has divided the EU over fears of a tightening Russian grip on gas supplies.

In recent months and weeks, Gazprom has taken advantage of high demand in Europe and of decreased gas supplies to Europe from Russia’s competitors, Maxim Rubchenko writes for Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

Russia – which already supplies around one-third of Europe’s gas – boosted deliveries in the winter, one of the coldest winters in Europe in the past decade, and continues to ship higher volumes even after the winter, as gas importing countries replenish gas storage supplies that had been drained amid the cold snaps.

Alexander Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Gazprom’s Management Committee, said at the end of April that the Russian company was currently shipping as much gas to Europe as it typically does in winter months, and expects demand this summer to be close to winter levels.

Gazprom gas deliveries to Europe reached an all-time high in March, beating a previous record from January 2017, the Russian company says. In the first quarter of this year, Gazprom’s gas supply to Europe increased by 6.6 percent compared to the same quarter last year. Gazprom’s gas deliveries to European countries continued to grow in April, even after the winter heating season ended.

Demand in Europe has stayed high after the winter ended. First, because gas storage levels were low, and second—because some of the other traditional gas-supplying countries have decreased supplies over issues or maintenance at facilities.

Norway, Russia’s closest competitor, had to cope with an unplanned outage at the Skarv gas field and Kollsnes processing plant in April. Flows to Europe were reduced after a compressor at the Skarv field in the Norwegian Sea failed.

In the south, Libyan gas flow from the Greenstream pipeline to Italy was stopped on April 2 due to maintenance to integrate gas from a new phase of development at the offshore gas field Bahr Essalam. The maintenance was initially expected to be completed in two weeks, on April 18, but the resumption of gas supplies has been postponed several times, so Italy received no gas from Greenstream for the whole month of April.

Total African pipeline exports to Europe dropped in the last week of April on a continued Libyan outage and reduced Algerian gas deliveries.

While Gazprom is boosting supplies to Europe even after the winter, it has received permits from Germany to build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and a first permit for the project in Finland. Gazprom has also completed the deepwater pipelay for Line 1 of the TurkStream offshore gas pipeline planned to connect Russia to Turkey across the Black Sea.

Meanwhile, Gazprom’s seven-year-old dispute with the EU on antitrust issues may soon be coming to an end. According to Bloomberg sources, the EU could announce as early as in May a settlement with the Russian company under which Gazprom could agree to binding pledges to allay antitrust concerns, which could put an end to the antitrust investigation that started in 2011.

Despite high political tensions, Russia continues to boost gas supplies to Europe, and Europe continues to buy.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2K8mL05 Tyler Durden

London has a problem with rising violent crime, that is unfortunately a fact.

According to Metropolitan Police statistics, there was a 51 percent rise in murders from financial year 16/17 to 17/18. Picking up on the issue, U.S. President Trump said at an NRA rally on Friday that one particular hospital in the UK capital was “like a “war zone” due to knife attack victims. This though, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, is a UK problem, and while the problem should absolutely not be played down, it is a problem on a UK scale, too.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Looking at the broader offense category ‘homicide’, London had a rate per 100,000 population of 1.8 in the twelve months ending March 31 this year (including eight deaths that were due to terrorism).

On a U.S. scale though, and when comparing to the biggest cities there, this rate is low – lower than any of the 50 largest in the country, in fact. San Diego is the safest of the major U.S. cities, with a homicide rate of 2.2. New York had a rate of 3.4 in 2017. Looking to the top of the list, Baltimore has an astonishing rate of 55.8.

 

via RSS https://ift.tt/2IrG9YV Tyler Durden

Via Oriental Review,

Washington’s current foreign-policy practice is a bit reminiscent of the golden era of the Ottoman Sublime Porte, in the sense that any visit by a leader of a vassal state is seen as nothing more than an opportunity for a public demonstration of his willingness to serve the great sultan or, in the modern context, to do the bidding of the master of the White House.

The visitor must also wear a big grin and speak passionately about how happy he is to have been given the opportunity to kiss the Sultan’s slippers. Or, to put it in the language of today, to be impressed with the leadership of the US and personally inspired by the energy of the American president. The Washington establishment can’t wrap its head around any other configuration, and therefore in the present era of America’s ebbing hegemony, the ideal visitors to the White House are the presidents of Ukraine or the Baltic countries. The other heads of states that come to Washington, including EU leaders and even some African presidents, act like insolent upstarts, who — from the standpoint of imperial tradition — do not stand to attention, tend to offer their flattery without fervor or exuberance, and, most importantly, do not race off to fulfill the wishes of the leaders of the empire.

Reception ceremony of the Conte de Saint Priest at the Ottoman Porte by Antoine de Favray 1767

The meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Donald Trump on April 27, 2018 served only to confirm that Washington does not need allies who have their own national interests: all allies must be guided by the concept of the unipolar hegemony of the US. Anyone who is uncomfortable with this is relegated to the circle of those who are seen as unfriendly to the White House. The Washington Post makes it clear that Germany falls into this latter camp: “Angela Merkel is becoming Europe’s weakest link.”

That article points out how serious the differences are between the two countries’ ruling factions. Both Germany’s political elite, and as well as the German population as a whole, are characterized very disparagingly: “German passivity is deeply ingrained. Berlin’s political class lacks strategic thinking, hates risk and has little spunk. It hides behind its ignominious past to justify pacifism when it comes to hard questions about defense and security issues.” The general decrepitude of the Bundeswehr and its equipment are criticized and mocked in the discussion of Germany’s refusal to take part in the missile attack on Syria carried out by the US, Britain, and France. And then the article even alleges that Germany’s Syrian policy has actually abetted the wrong side by granting asylum to almost a million refugees fleeing that country, thus supposedly allowing Bashar al-Assad to continue fighting.

In this context it becomes quite obvious that the specific issues that Merkel brought to the table in Washington were merely secondary concerns to her American partner. Germany’s Madam Chancellor had to traverse a distance of 10,000 kilometers to be granted a 20-minute conversation, from which it was clear that Trump had not altered his negative attitude toward questions so vital to the Germans as customs duties on steel and aluminum (set at 25% and 10%), Nord Stream 2, a loosening of the Russian sanctions for major German manufacturers, or the nuclear deal with Iran.

Angela Merkel had a difficult choice to make. Either Berlin declares war on all of Washington’s opponents, or it is dismissed once and for all as the “weakest link,” with all the ensuing consequences. But the first option would be a blow to Germany’s national interests. It is not just its international trade that would take the hit, but also its energy projects and German public opinion. She was given to understand that otherwise Germany would fail to meet the White House’s criteria for the role of America’s main partner in Europe.

Angela Merkel did not seem overly impressed. She sees the constraints that exist for her. The historical memory of the greatest defeat of the twentieth century still lingers. Hence the high level of wariness when it comes to invitations to join NATO’s military escapades. Nor has anyone there forgotten the 1980s, when Germany lived in intense fear of the USSR’s SS-20 missiles that could have incinerated that country in the blink of an eye. Germans have no desire to meekly toe the line of yet another US president, which could end up taking them back to those days.

Apparently this is why the head of the German government seemed to have armored herself with the mantra of “don’t give anything to Trump” during the negotiations in Washington.

If you look at things pragmatically, Trump needed to get a few concessions from Merkel. First of all, he needed the consent of the German chancellor to at least bring back the sanctions and hopefully to even agree to a war against Iran, because for the current Washington administration, a dissolution of the “Iran deal” and a subsequent war with Tehran is the biggest item on its foreign-policy agenda. Second, Trump had to “squeeze” Merkel on the issue of increasing Germany’s financial contributions NATO’s budget. According to the White House, Germany should be contributing 2% of its annual GDP to the alliance’s budget (or in other words, to the backlog of product orders for the US military-industrial complex). As Trump expressed it so poetically, “NATO is wonderful, but it helps Europe more than it helps us, and why are we paying the vast majority of the costs?” Third, the US needed to ensure that European leaders, and especially Merkel, capitulate in the tariff wars between the US and the EU, and, in a best-case scenario, to also secure the EU’s assistance in the trade war with China that Trump recently kicked off.

Based on the results of the meeting, Washington received a polite refusal on all three points. Five years ago it would have been difficult to imagine this kind of situation, but now this is objectively the real-world state of affairs, and it is something that neither the political analysts in the US nor a significant faction of the European media class (which still views the European Union as a “big Puerto Rico”) can get used to. The significance of Puerto Rico is that it is a place outside the US borders, but that is in effect controlled from Washington, although it has no power to influence American policy. Incidentally, Washington’s official discourse in regard to the European Union has already undergone a radical transformation and, according to Trump himself, it seems that the EU was “formed to take advantage of the United States,” although prior to that the EU was painted in the official Western narrative exclusively in terms of its “ideals of freedom,” “protection of democracy,” and some kind of “pan-European destiny and values.”

The essence of today’s transatlantic relationship can be seen in the contacts between Washington and Paris. Despite the White House’s high hopes for France to prove its loyalty to the alliance, its leaders have been just as firm as Germany’s in standing up for their own interests. This mindset was evident in the stance taken by President Emmanuel Macron, who was quoted by Bloomberg as saying “we won’t talk about anything while there’s a gun pointed at our head.” European leaders insist that any discussions take place with everyone on an equal footing, which Washington cannot indulge as a matter of principle. Even lower-level European officials are using their economic power to threaten the US. French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire claimed, “One thing I learned from my week in the U.S. with President Macron: The Americans will only respect a show of strength.” Needless to say, one does not speak to a real global hegemon in such terms.

No matter what the outcome of all the diplomatic and economic conflicts between the two shores of the Atlantic, it is already safe to say that Europe has broken free of Washington’s grip, and future relations between the US and the EU will become increasingly tense. We shall soon see whether Europe will take advantage of its current opportunity to reclaim the economic and political freedom that it lost at some point.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2ry1N31 Tyler Durden