National Injunction Case Added to the Court’s Docket

This morning, for the fourth time in the last two decades, the Supreme Court of the United States has granted certiorari to address the legality of the national injunction. The case is Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab (SCOTUSBlog’s case page is here). The injunction question–”whether the district court’s universal preliminary injunction is impermissibly overbroad”–is the fourth of the four questions presented.

The panel decision below was by Judge Fletcher. After noting that “nationwide injunctions have become increasingly controversial” and arguing that the district court’s injunction in the case was not truly national (just the southern border), Judge Fletcher gave two reasons for affirming it: the APA and immigration exceptionality.

The immigration exceptionality argument is very weak as a matter of constitutional text and history–”an uniform rule of naturalization” is not a synecdoche for uniform immigration law, much less uniformity in judicial remedies in cases related to immigration. I suspect that reason only shows up as much as it does because of its invocation by the Fifth Circuit in the waning days of the Obama administration, which has made it a convenient citation over the last four years. (This is not to fault Judge Fletcher’s use of it; that the case occurs in an immigration context has now been repeatedly cited by the Ninth Circuit as a rationale for national injunctions, as can be seen in this review of the Ninth Circuit’s recent national injunction cases by William Yeatman.)

By contrast, the APA argument given by Judge Fletcher is the serious one, with serious points to be made on both sides. The leading pieces are by John Harrison (short version here) and Mila Sohoni. My own view is that the APA text and context cut strongly against national injunctions, and that the best support that can be mustered for them is more recent lower court precedent and practice. The brief filed by Nick Bagley and me in the last national injunction case at the Court, which also arose under the APA, is here. (Goes without saying, but the position Nick and I take on the national injunction has nothing to do with who is president.)

If you’ve followed the recent national injunction cases in which the Court granted cert, or the one from over a decade ago (Summers v. Earth Island Institute), you probably know why the Court grants these cases but then doesn’t resolve the national injunction question: the remedies question comes last, and in each case the Court has resolved the merits in a way that means it doesn’t reach the question of remedy. Whether that will happen again is a question I leave to those with more expertise in the substantive law implicated by Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab.

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National Injunction Case Added to the Court’s Docket

This morning, for the fourth time in the last two decades, the Supreme Court of the United States has granted certiorari to address the legality of the national injunction. The case is Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab (SCOTUSBlog’s case page is here). The injunction question–”whether the district court’s universal preliminary injunction is impermissibly overbroad”–is the fourth of the four questions presented.

The panel decision below was by Judge Fletcher. After noting that “nationwide injunctions have become increasingly controversial” and arguing that the district court’s injunction in the case was not truly national (just the southern border), Judge Fletcher gave two reasons for affirming it: the APA and immigration exceptionality.

The immigration exceptionality argument is very weak as a matter of constitutional text and history–”an uniform rule of naturalization” is not a synecdoche for uniform immigration law, much less uniformity in judicial remedies in cases related to immigration. I suspect that reason only shows up as much as it does because of its invocation by the Fifth Circuit in the waning days of the Obama administration, which has made it a convenient citation over the last four years. (This is not to fault Judge Fletcher’s use of it; that the case occurs in an immigration context has now been repeatedly cited by the Ninth Circuit as a rationale for national injunctions, as can be seen in this review of the Ninth Circuit’s recent national injunction cases by William Yeatman.)

By contrast, the APA argument given by Judge Fletcher is the serious one, with serious points to be made on both sides. The leading pieces are by John Harrison (short version here) and Mila Sohoni. My own view is that the APA text and context cut strongly against national injunctions, and that the best support that can be mustered for them is more recent lower court precedent and practice. The brief filed by Nick Bagley and me in the last national injunction case at the Court, which also arose under the APA, is here. (Goes without saying, but the position Nick and I take on the national injunction has nothing to do with who is president.)

If you’ve followed the recent national injunction cases in which the Court granted cert, or the one from over a decade ago (Summers v. Earth Island Institute), you probably know why the Court grants these cases but then doesn’t resolve the national injunction question: the remedies question comes last, and in each case the Court has resolved the merits in a way that means it doesn’t reach the question of remedy. Whether that will happen again is a question I leave to those with more expertise in the substantive law implicated by Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab.

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Cops Clash with Protesters in America and Around the World

DHS Agents in Portland

In cities around the world, crackdowns on protesting can’t seem to stop people from pouring out into the streets. Here in the U.S., federal agents just had an hourslong standoff with protestors in Portland after people tied star-shaped balloons with messages about immigration (such as “the U.S. locks up people seeking asylum”) taped to them to the gate of a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement building.

Department of Homeland Security officers “advanced on demonstrators soon after they arrived Saturday night…setting off an hours-long, back-and-forth struggle between police and protesters,” reports The Oregonian:

Federal officers then used smoke and impact munitions to break up the crowd for the next several hours. Protesters threw playground balls or rocks in response. Federal officers detained several people, although the exact number of arrestees remains unclear….

Saturday’s demonstration started with a march from Willamette Park in South Portland. A flier for the event described it as a solidarity march against deportation. As marchers walked, they chanted messages such as “Black Lives Matter!” and “What’s outrageous? Kids in cages.” Many people carried silver and gold balloons shaped like stars. A fact about U.S. immigrations policy was taped to each balloon.

In Phoenix, “nearly every attendee of a Saturday protest against police in downtown Phoenix was arrested after police say the group marched in the road, knocked barricades into the road, and threw smoke bombs at officers,” The Arizona Republic reports:

In total, 15 adults and three teens were arrested, according to Phoenix Police Department spokesperson Sgt. Ann Justus. They face charges including aggravated assault on an officer, riot, criminal damage, unlawful assembly, hindering prosecution, resisting arrest and obstructing a road….

“As officers began making arrests, another incendiary device was thrown at them. Due to the ongoing criminal activity and assault, the Phoenix Police deployed less lethal munitions in order to safely make arrests,” Justus said.

Protest group The W.E. Rising Project posted on social media that police hit at least one protester in the face with a pepper ball.

In Seattle, police ordered protesters to disperse after someone allegedly set a small fire and some street signs were spray-painted. It does not seem they arrested the fire starter or the vandals, but they did book five demonstrators for “failure to disperse, pedestrian interference, obstruction and resisting arrest.”

Meanwhile, across the Pacific Ocean, “Thai authorities shut down parts of Bangkok’s commercial center and crippled public rail networks over the weekend in an effort to prevent young demonstrators from continuing their antigovernment protests,” The New York Times informs us. “It didn’t work.”

Tens of thousands of members of the pro-democracy movement, which has been galvanized by a political awakening among social media savvy students, gathered in Thailand’s capital and in about 20 provinces on Saturday and Sunday to call for fresh elections, a new Constitution and reforms to the monarchy’s lofty position in Thai society.

In Belarus this weekend, the AP reports, “tens of thousands of people marched…demanding the ouster of the country’s authoritarian leader who won his sixth term in office in an election widely seen as rigged.”

In Nigeria, “thousands of people have been taking to the streets of Lagos over the past week to protest against police brutality,” says Al Jazeera.

Mobilised through online platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, the youth-led protests that began on October 8 initially targeted the federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a notorious police unit long accused of harassment, torture, extortion and extrajudicial killings.

After days of #EndSARS demonstrations across Nigeria and the diaspora, authorities on Sunday announced the dissolution of SARS and later ordered all personnel to report to the police headquarters in the capital, Abuja, for debriefing and psychological and medical examination. Meanwhile, the forming of a new Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) team was announced to replace SARS.

However, the announcements did not satisfy protesters, who viewed them as just another renaming exercise and pledged to stay on the streets until their demands are met.

These include the immediate release of all arrested protesters, justice for all deceased victims of brutality and appropriate compensation for their families, an independent body to oversee the investigation and persecution of all reports of police misconduct, psychological evaluation and retraining of all disbanded SARS officers before they can be redeployed, and an increase in police salary so they are adequately compensated for protecting the lives and property of the citizens.

And in South America…


ELECTION 2020

New York Post stands by Biden story as other news outlets question its claims. Two New York Post reporters allegedly declined to have their names attached to the story about Hunter Biden’s emails that has become the subject of so much social media drama. “The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal have reported that they could not independently verify the data in the Post article, which included hedging language, referring at one point to an email ‘allegedly sent’ to Hunter Biden,” the Times reports. A New York Post statement said “the story was vetted and The Post stands by its reporting,”


FREE MARKETS

Pennsylvania restaurant wins lawsuit against lockdown. Lebanon County’s Taste of Sicily, cited for violating state shutdown orders after fully reopening back in May, won a lawsuit against Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf over the emergency orders. “The restaurant is currently waiting for a hearing date against the Department of Agriculture,” reports WHP-TV.


QUICK HITS

• Pakistan is banning TikTok.

• Another lawsuit alleges that hotels are legally liable for any crime that takes place within their rooms.

• Two men were arrested and charged with trafficking a person for prostitution and engaging in organized criminal activity after telling a cop who pulled them over that they were going to meet an adult woman who police thought may be involved in prostitution.

• The NYPD is now the private party police.

Reason‘s Jesse Walker chats with Thaddeus Russell on the Unregistered podcast:

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Homebuilder Sentiment Soars To New Record High

Homebuilder Sentiment Soars To New Record High

Tyler Durden

Mon, 10/19/2020 – 10:07

Well, you have to laugh really. Amid the greatest economic contraction in US history, rising social unrest, ongoing extreme unemployment, and demands for further trillions in handouts from the government (or the world will come to an end), there is one group that is ‘loving it’!

According to the National Association of Home Builders, homebuilder sentiment has surged to a new record high at 85 in October…

Source: Bloomberg

The October reading was stronger than the expected 83, and marked the sixth straight month builder sentiment has exceeded the consensus estimate.

By region, builder sentiment in the West and Northeast rose to the highest levels on record, while confidence eased in the South and Midwest.

The NAHB’s gauge of current single-family home sales rose by 2 points to a record 90 in October, while a measure of the outlook for purchases climbed 3 points to an all-time high of 88. The group’s index of prospective buyer traffic held at 74.

“The concept of ‘home’ has taken on renewed importance for work, study and other purposes in the Covid era,” Chuck Fowke, chairman of NAHB, said in a statement.

“However, it is becoming increasingly challenging to build affordable homes as shortages of lots, labor, lumber and other key building materials are lengthening construction times.”

Does make one wonder…maybe we should have pandemics (and riots) more often?
 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2T9hsE8 Tyler Durden

Nasdaq Shorts Crushed By Second Biggest Short-Squeeze In History

Nasdaq Shorts Crushed By Second Biggest Short-Squeeze In History

Tyler Durden

Mon, 10/19/2020 – 10:00

At the end of September, we observed that the sharp if brief selloff in tech stocks last month has resulted in the second-highest ever pileup of shorts in the Nasdaq, and warned that a short squeeze was imminent:

Amusingly, none other than SoftBank tried to give the squeeze some juice, when it reverted to its notorious massive call spread buying strategy in early October that defined the epic meltup of August when it emerged that Masa Son’s conglomerate had bought tens of billions in call premia in an attempt to ramp up its recently purchased stocks for its tech portfllio.

This trend to force a painful squeeze culminated last Monday, when the Nasdaq exploded higher amid what we called a massive double-squeeze in both dealer gamma (which was short) as well as futures (see “Nasdaq Explodes Higher Amid Unprecedented Gamma/Futures Double-Squeeze“).

And while it is now last week’s news, the latest CFTC Commitment of traders data confirmed what as we warned several weeks ago, would become one of the biggest short squeezes in Nasdaq history. As the chart below shows, after five weeks of aggressive shorting, hedge funds and other non-commercial speculators, pulled back sharply and turn bullish on Nasdaq 100 mini futures.

But what was remarkable was the near record surge between the Oct 6 net short of -75K and the subsequent week’s net long position of +17.8K. This was the biggest surge in NQ contracts in more than 13 years, and the second highest increase on record.

And biggest 3-week squeeze since 2005.

While it is unclear if the move in the Nasdaq sparked the squeeze or vice versa, one thing is clear: since our initial warnings of an imminent squeeze, the Nasdaq is up 9% from its Sept. 23 low. It remains about 5% below that record, although we expect that as bullish momentum picks up to the upside, the record high will be taken out on short notice.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, the record collapse in the Nasdaq short coincided with an increase in bet that VIX will tumble in the coming weeks, with bet short non-commercial positions on VIX futures tumbling to the most bearish net position since before the covid pandemic.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/35aKwAN Tyler Durden

Cops Clash with Protesters in America and Around the World

DHS Agents in Portland

In cities around the world, crackdowns on protesting can’t seem to stop people from pouring out into the streets. Here in the U.S., federal agents just had an hourslong standoff with protestors in Portland after people tied star-shaped balloons with messages about immigration (such as “the U.S. locks up people seeking asylum”) taped to them to the gate of a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement building.

Department of Homeland Security officers “advanced on demonstrators soon after they arrived Saturday night…setting off an hours-long, back-and-forth struggle between police and protesters,” reports The Oregonian:

Federal officers then used smoke and impact munitions to break up the crowd for the next several hours. Protesters threw playground balls or rocks in response. Federal officers detained several people, although the exact number of arrestees remains unclear….

Saturday’s demonstration started with a march from Willamette Park in South Portland. A flier for the event described it as a solidarity march against deportation. As marchers walked, they chanted messages such as “Black Lives Matter!” and “What’s outrageous? Kids in cages.” Many people carried silver and gold balloons shaped like stars. A fact about U.S. immigrations policy was taped to each balloon.

In Phoenix, “nearly every attendee of a Saturday protest against police in downtown Phoenix was arrested after police say the group marched in the road, knocked barricades into the road, and threw smoke bombs at officers,” The Arizona Republic reports:

In total, 15 adults and three teens were arrested, according to Phoenix Police Department spokesperson Sgt. Ann Justus. They face charges including aggravated assault on an officer, riot, criminal damage, unlawful assembly, hindering prosecution, resisting arrest and obstructing a road….

“As officers began making arrests, another incendiary device was thrown at them. Due to the ongoing criminal activity and assault, the Phoenix Police deployed less lethal munitions in order to safely make arrests,” Justus said.

Protest group The W.E. Rising Project posted on social media that police hit at least one protester in the face with a pepper ball.

In Seattle, police ordered protesters to disperse after someone allegedly set a small fire and some street signs were spray-painted. It does not seem they arrested the fire starter or the vandals, but they did book five demonstrators for “failure to disperse, pedestrian interference, obstruction and resisting arrest.”

Meanwhile, across the Pacific Ocean, “Thai authorities shut down parts of Bangkok’s commercial center and crippled public rail networks over the weekend in an effort to prevent young demonstrators from continuing their antigovernment protests,” The New York Times informs us. “It didn’t work.”

Tens of thousands of members of the pro-democracy movement, which has been galvanized by a political awakening among social media savvy students, gathered in Thailand’s capital and in about 20 provinces on Saturday and Sunday to call for fresh elections, a new Constitution and reforms to the monarchy’s lofty position in Thai society.

In Belarus this weekend, the AP reports, “tens of thousands of people marched…demanding the ouster of the country’s authoritarian leader who won his sixth term in office in an election widely seen as rigged.”

In Nigeria, “thousands of people have been taking to the streets of Lagos over the past week to protest against police brutality,” says Al Jazeera.

Mobilised through online platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, the youth-led protests that began on October 8 initially targeted the federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a notorious police unit long accused of harassment, torture, extortion and extrajudicial killings.

After days of #EndSARS demonstrations across Nigeria and the diaspora, authorities on Sunday announced the dissolution of SARS and later ordered all personnel to report to the police headquarters in the capital, Abuja, for debriefing and psychological and medical examination. Meanwhile, the forming of a new Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) team was announced to replace SARS.

However, the announcements did not satisfy protesters, who viewed them as just another renaming exercise and pledged to stay on the streets until their demands are met.

These include the immediate release of all arrested protesters, justice for all deceased victims of brutality and appropriate compensation for their families, an independent body to oversee the investigation and persecution of all reports of police misconduct, psychological evaluation and retraining of all disbanded SARS officers before they can be redeployed, and an increase in police salary so they are adequately compensated for protecting the lives and property of the citizens.

And in South America…


ELECTION 2020

New York Post stands by Biden story as other news outlets question its claims. Two New York Post reporters allegedly declined to have their names attached to the story about Hunter Biden’s emails that has become the subject of so much social media drama. “The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal have reported that they could not independently verify the data in the Post article, which included hedging language, referring at one point to an email ‘allegedly sent’ to Hunter Biden,” the Times reports. A New York Post statement said “the story was vetted and The Post stands by its reporting,”


FREE MARKETS

Pennsylvania restaurant wins lawsuit against lockdown. Lebanon County’s Taste of Sicily, cited for violating state shutdown orders after fully reopening back in May, won a lawsuit against Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf over the emergency orders. “The restaurant is currently waiting for a hearing date against the Department of Agriculture,” reports WHP-TV.


QUICK HITS

• Pakistan is banning TikTok.

• Another lawsuit alleges that hotels are legally liable for any crime that takes place within their rooms.

• Two men were arrested and charged with trafficking a person for prostitution and engaging in organized criminal activity after telling a cop who pulled them over that they were going to meet an adult woman who police thought may be involved in prostitution.

• The NYPD is now the private party police.

Reason‘s Jesse Walker chats with Thaddeus Russell on the Unregistered podcast:

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via IFTTT

Biden’s $2 Trillion Clean Energy Plans Could Mark The Beginning Of The End For The Natural Gas Industry

Biden’s $2 Trillion Clean Energy Plans Could Mark The Beginning Of The End For The Natural Gas Industry

Tyler Durden

Mon, 10/19/2020 – 09:45

While Joe Biden has been busy speaking out of both sides of his mouth about what his position on fracking would be, if elected, another revelation has come to light: regardless of his position on fracking, his $2 trillion clean energy plan could be devastating to natural gas.

As Bloomberg points out in a recent article, natural gas is not only a crucial part of the nation’s energy supply, but it directly effects votes in the swing state of Pennsylvania, where Biden is seeking to turn the state that leaned Trump in 2016. 

 

Biden’s energy plan could speed up natural gas becoming “economically and environmentally untenable within the power sector,” Bloomberg notes. Biden’s plan for a carbon neutral grid would all but assure natural gas is phased out in favor of renewable energy. 

Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, put it bluntly: “Decarbonization isn’t a debate — it’s a fossil-fuel death sentence. It means a resource is going off the grid. That is the inevitable implication.”

While gas remains a key source of energy for the nation, it has also faced headwinds: its more expensive than solar and wind in most places and, by 2030, renewables are slated to get even cheaper. 

John Coequyt, the climate policy director at the Sierra Club, said: “This transition is going to happen more quickly than people thought, just as the coal transition has happened faster than people thought it would.”

 

Biden’s proposals to cut back on drilling could wind up actually helping natural gas prices in the short term – as could a warmer relationship with China – but in the long term, the prognosis looks undeniable. 

If Biden were elected it would come heading into a winter where gas prices are already expected to fall 5.7% due to higher prices this season. 

Further, states like California – who is often the leading indicator for economy-crippling-frivolous-big-government regulations – are already taking active measure to limit natural gas use. 

Many are comparing Biden’s potential impact on gas to Obama’s impact on coal. Recall, the Obama administration all but put coal off the map – accelerating the industry’s demise by slapping environmental regulations on coal plants. 

 

David Spence, a professor at the University of Texas School of Law, commented: “You might be able to adopt policies that at least give them a theoretical chance to survive, even if they’re going to make it much harder for them to survive.”

Katie Bays, an analyst with Sandhill Strategy in Washington, concluded: “A lot of the path to net-zero by 2035 for power will come from energy efficiency gains, a lot from renewables, and that will squeeze out fossil fuels eventually.”
 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2T9cPde Tyler Durden

An Uncertainty Pandemic?

An Uncertainty Pandemic?

Tyler Durden

Mon, 10/19/2020 – 09:30

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Let the autumn leaves fall where they may.”

It feels we are caught in some kind of revolving autumnal depression – inflicting successive fronts of bad news and uncertainty upon us.

The US election is just over 2 weeks away, and the divide between Trump and Biden is said to be narrowing in the betting markets. Sterling markets have been curiously muted following the missed “hard” Oct 15th Brexit deadline – anticipating a last-minute deal can still be found. Pandemic lockdowns threaten across Europe as infections rise, raising the fears of a double-dip depression. Meanwhile, China is all smiles as the economy gets back on track for a bumper year as the West remains mired in dissent.

The factor most colouring markets remains the US election. 

There is an “interesting” article in the Spectator on the election – it suggests Trump will only lose the election because elderly US voters think he’s left them in danger. However, it also suggests the primary reason Trump won the 2016 election was because he was up against the worst possible democratic candidate – Hillary Clinton. That’s an interesting perspective. It doesn’t appear to be a lesson the Democrats took on board. Biden is hardly the most convincing choice – but the numbers do show he is attracting Trump’s votes. 

In recent weeks markets had gotten comfortable with the increasing likelihood of a Biden clean sweep – talking up stimulus plans and talking down threatened tax increases. However, this morning the latest polls are looking more mixed. Betting odds compiled by RealClearPoliticssuggest its getting closer. (Although PaddyPower shows Biden 1/10 and Trump 5/1.) 

The closer the result looks, the more likely it is to scare markets – uncertainty is what markets fear most, and the closer the election result, the greater the perceived likelihood Trump will not concede and will contest the results. 

Any chance the Republicans see to stem a Biden landslide will increase the negative news flow – for instance this morning Biden is being dismissed as a China stooge, there is renewed noise about Hunter Biden’s nefarious misdeeds, another that Joe is mentally and physically exhausted by the campaign, that Facebook is in trouble for pulling stories about Hunter Biden, etc, etc, etc….  I’m assured such “fake-news flow” is all true and hasn’t been carefully engineered to paint Donald as an honest, virile statesman. (Sarcasm alert.) On the other hand, the New York Times did a full hatchet job on Trump on Sunday. Whatever happens on election night (or the months it may take to resolve the numbers) America is likely to remain a house divided. 

The next two weeks are going to be interesting on the other side of the pond. And that well know Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times” applies equally here in the UK as well.  

There is much talk of just how distracted the government looks in terms of the missed Brexit deadline, dissent from the regions on Coronavirus lockdowns, and claymores being dug out the heather in Scotland (a sure sign of rebellion). Rumours of dark deeds, superinjunctions, and political skullduggery swirl around Westminster. These do not look like Boris’ finest hours. 

Cut through the noise, and the outlook for the UK boils down to how you perceive three questions: 

1) How secure is the nation’s Pandemic response?

There does seem to be an increasing realisation the Pandemic is a long-term economic hurdle. It’s essentially very simple: the NHS will not be able to cope if a large part of the elderly population is infected.  It’s now well understood the young are essentially not in any real statistical danger, but all it would take to swamp medical services is 10% of those over 65 to catch it. There is a growing consensus the government has done an appalling job managing and communicating its policy which is to essentially stretch out the pandemic to keep the hospitalisation curve below the crisis level – which means (in the absence of a vaccine)… this goes on longer and the friction continues. 

2) What is the likelihood of a Brexit deal?

The Brexiteer faithful claim a no-deal is best for the country, but that’s largely bravado. A deal is always a better option – but not at any cost. The rumours say there is still time for the last minute stroke of midnight agreement with Yoorp.  A deal would be pragmatic – but no one can afford to look weak.  Not Boris, not Macron and not the faceless nomenklatura of Brussels. Someone is going to have to give ground… Still.. I’m sure we’ve gone to war with France over less than fishing rights in the past. Pass the Tennis balls (extra points to anyone that can explain that reference…)

3) Where is UK policy going?

It sounds like the Bank of England is going all-in with Negative rates on Nov 5th. Good or bad thing? Short-term market plus – long-term creates all kinds of negative consequences and immense difficulties in terms of moving the economy back into normalised growth and kickstarting entrepreneurial spirits. 

We also have the clamour on how the government pays for the crisis – should Chancellor Rishi Sunak really be raising taxes and cutting spending in time of recession? Of course he should not, but he has to convince economically illiterate Tory MPs and party bosses that Margaret Thatcher was wrong about the nation having to stick to household budgeting to balance the books – and that’s heresy!  I wrote about it last week in City AM: Be Brave Mr Sunak.. Keep Spending

Put these three factors together and work out if the UK is a buy or a sell. The opportunity is certainly there for the UK to use its ability to finance itself out of this Pandemic depression – which will be much more difficult for Europe, hamstrung as it is by the ECB. Buy/Sell UK is not a binary call about a Brexit deal, although many analysts present it as the main market factor.

And then there is China. 

No virus worries as the economy grows 4.9% putting it on track for something that may look like a steep left-skewed v-shaped recovery. The numbers look good – the economy contracted 6.8% as the virus hit in Q1, before posting 3.2% in Q2 and near 5% in Q3. China will post positive 2020 growth. 

How did China do it? Is it all down to the strict Q1 lockdowns and controls we’d never accept in the west? Was the speed at which their economy adjusted to supply increased demand for PPE and other health products, or fed the West’s demand from WFH computers? How much is due to increased consumer confidence in China – an article in the WSJ this morning quotes the head of Domino’s Pizza saying China is “a terrific success story in 2020.”

As a final comment on China this morning, I was writing about the regulatory threat to US Tech – someone suggested I buy Alibaba instead as there is zero chance China will hamstring their own tech while the West acts. As a smart Chinese philosopher once said: never interrupt your enemy when they are making mistakes.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2FEZoyC Tyler Durden

Key Events This Week: Final Presidential Debate, Earnings And PMIs

Key Events This Week: Final Presidential Debate, Earnings And PMIs

Tyler Durden

Mon, 10/19/2020 – 09:20

Looking at the busy week ahead, we get the final presidential debate of the US election on Thursday, the flash PMIs on Friday, and earnings season moving into full flow with 90 S&P 500 companies reporting. As well as this, there is an array of central bank speakers as usual.

As DB’s Jim Reid previews, in terms of the final presidential debate on Thursday, the format will feature six 15-minute segments, with the topics expected to be announced in advance. Otherwise, investors will be paying close attention to the Senate polls, since the question of whether we have united or divided government in the US next year will determine the likelihood and composition of different stimulus packages. FiveThirtyEight’s model currently puts the chance of Biden winning the presidency at 87%, though the odds of Democratic control of the Senate are at a lower 74% with a few important tight races evident.

Earnings season moves into full swing this week, with 90 of the S&P 500 companies reporting and 78 in the Stoxx 600. In terms of the highlights, we’ll hear from IBM on today, before tomorrow sees releases from Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris International, Lockheed Martin and UBS. Then on Wednesday, there’ll be announcements from Verizon Communications, Abbott Laboratories, Thermo Fisher Scientific, NextEra Energy and Tesla. Thursday then sees releases from Intel, Coca Cola, AT&T, Danaher and Union Pacific. Finally on Friday, there’s American Express, Daimler and Barclays.

Source: @eWhispers

On the data front this week the October flash PMIs from around the world on Friday will be closely watched as ever especially with economic restrictions mounting again, especially in Europe. There’ll also be some attention on the weekly initial jobless claims from the US after last week’s unexpected increase to a 7-week high. Another deterioration would raise further concerns about the state of the US labor market.

The rest of the data, including Central Bank speakers can be found in the breakdown below. Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday October 19

  • Data: Japan September trade balance, China Q3 GDP, September industrial production, retail sales, Canada August wholesale trade sales, US October NAHB housing market index
  • Central Banks: Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, Fed’s Clarida, Bostic, Harker and BoE’s Cunliffe speak
  • Earnings: IBM
  • Politics: UK House of Lords begins debate on Internal Market Bill

Tuesday October 20

  • Data: China September new home prices, Germany September PPI, Japan final September machine tool orders, US September building permits, housing starts
  • Central Banks: Fed’s Quarles, Williams, Evans, BoE’s Vlieghe speak
  • Earnings: Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris International, Lockheed Martin, UBS

Wednesday October 21

  • Data: UK September CPI, public sector net borrowing, US weekly MBA mortgage applications, Canada August retail sales, September CPI
  • Central Banks: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book, Fed’s Mester and BoE’s Ramsden speak
  • Earnings: Verizon Communications, Abbott Laboratories, Thermo Fisher Scientific, NextEra Energy, Tesla

Thursday October 22

  • Data: Germany November GfK consumer confidence, US weekly initial jobless claims, September leading index, existing home sales, October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, Euro Area advance October consumer confidence
  • Central Banks: Central Bank of Turkey monetary policy decision, Bank of England Governor Bailey and BoE’s Haldane speak
  • Earnings: Intel, Coca Cola, AT&T, Danaher, Union Pacific
  • Politics: Final US Presidential Debate

Friday October 23

  • Data: Flash October manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for Japan, France, Germany, UK and US, UK October GfK consumer confidence, September retail sales, Japan September nationwide CPI
  • Central Banks: Central Bank of Russia monetary policy decision, BoE’s Ramsden speaks
  • Earnings: American Express, Daimler, Barclays

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data release this week is the jobless claims report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida on Monday.

Monday, October 19

  • 08:00 AM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated panel on cross border payments during the IMF annual meeting.
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, October (consensus 83, last 83)
  • 11:45 AM Fed Vice Chair Clarida (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida will discuss the economic outlook at a virtual event hosted by the American Bankers Association. Prepared text and Q&A from a moderator are expected.
  • 12:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak on transparency into the health of the nation’s largest banks at a virtual conference hosted by the Minneapolis Fed. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 02:20 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the benefits of an inclusive and diverse economy in remarks at SIFMA’s annual meeting. Prepared text is expected.
  • 03:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will discuss the post-virus recovery at a virtual event hosted by Operation HOPE. Prepared text is expected.

Tuesday, October 20

  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, September (GS +3.4%, consensus +2.9%, last -5.1%); Building permits, September (consensus +1.6%, last -0.5%): We estimate housing starts rose 3.4% in September following a 5.1% decline in the prior month. Our forecast incorporates boosts from a likely catch-up of single-family starts with firmer permits, lower mortgage rates, stronger construction job growth, and likely mean reversion in the noisy multifamily category.
  • 09:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give opening and closing remarks for a webinar series hosted by the New York Fed.
  • 10:50 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles will discuss the Financial Stability Board’s agenda at an online event hosted by SIFMA. Prepared text and Q&A from a moderator are expected.
  • 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will discuss COVID-19 and the future of the economy at a virtual event hosted by the Detroit Economic Club. Audience and media Q&A are expected.

Wednesday, October 21

  • 10:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will discuss monetary policy at a virtual event hosted by the Money Macro and Finance Society. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.
  • 12:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a discussion on a potential amendment to the Minnesota constitution. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 02:00 PM Beige Book, October/November FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. In the October Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to growth, labor markets, wages, price inflation, and the economic impacts of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

Thursday, October 22

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 17 (GS 860k, consensus 860k, last 898k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 10 (last 10,018k): We estimate initial jobless claim decreased to 860k in the week ended October 17. We see two-sided risks around this week’s initial claims forecast if California revises initial claims reports after reporting estimated claims since the week ended September 26.
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, September (GS +5.0%, consensus +4.2%, last +2.4%): After increasing by 2.4% in August, we estimate that existing home sales increased 5.0% further in September. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, October (last 11)

Friday, October 23

  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, October preliminary (consensus 53.5, last 53.2)
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, October preliminary (consensus 54.6, last 54.6)

Source: Deutsche Bank, Goldman, BofA

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/35f9Pl9 Tyler Durden

Tesla Abruptly Ends Its 7 Day Return Policy For Vehicles

Tesla Abruptly Ends Its 7 Day Return Policy For Vehicles

Tyler Durden

Mon, 10/19/2020 – 09:05

$409 billion market cap Tesla, whose cars are known for their roofs potentially flying off and sand pouring out of their back bumpers after several months of usage, is now ditching its 7 day return policy.

We guess Tesla feels like since it has provided such exemplary customer service thus far, it can start to cut back. Except, of course, that hasn’t been the reality. The reality has been a litany of complaints, many of which on Twitter, from car owners (and solar roof customers) who can’t seem to get the company to address their problems in a timely manner.

Now, according to Engadget, the company has stopped its 7 day return policy. The change was discovered by pro-Tesla blog Electrek, who noticed that when you tried to go to the 7 day return policy webpage, they were instead unceremoniously directed back to Tesla’s homepage. 

The policy had previously allowed returns within 7 days provided there was no damage and that there was less than 1,000 miles on the car. 

The company had previously said: “This return policy is intended to give you confidence in your purchase of a Tesla vehicle, and so is in addition to any other rights you may have under applicable law.”

Engadget reports that it is “unclear” why Tesla put an end to the problem, though we could venture a couple of guesses; some having to do with the poor build quality of the company’s cars and others having to do with potential red flags surrounding the re-sale of these vehicles. But, of course, we’ll make no such assertions.

Regardless, when put next to Tesla’s recent decision to cut both Model S prices in the U.S. for the second time this year and cut prices for the seventh time this year in China, it seems things may not be as wonderful as the company’s $409 billion market cap has led on. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/34bLygB Tyler Durden