What Real Estate Bubble? Oh, You Mean The One That’s Bigger Than The 2007 Bubble?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

It's painfully obvious that real estate valuations are once again at asset-bubble extremes.

Correspondent Mark G. submitted a chart of the Wilshire REIT (real estate investment trusts) index that sums up the current real estate market in one image: it's painfully obvious that real estate valuations are once again at asset-bubble extremes, one that's even bigger than the last RE bubble that popped in 2008 with devastating consequences to the global economy.

Defenders of current real estate valuations can draw upon an array of justifications, but they boil down to the same one used to justify valuations in every asset bubble: this time it's different.

Is there anything in this chart that suggests this belief might be misplaced, for example, that credit/asset bubbles burst with a rough time/amplitude symmetry?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/0mwaQUSBjpE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

What Real Estate Bubble? Oh, You Mean The One That's Bigger Than The 2007 Bubble?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

It's painfully obvious that real estate valuations are once again at asset-bubble extremes.

Correspondent Mark G. submitted a chart of the Wilshire REIT (real estate investment trusts) index that sums up the current real estate market in one image: it's painfully obvious that real estate valuations are once again at asset-bubble extremes, one that's even bigger than the last RE bubble that popped in 2008 with devastating consequences to the global economy.

Defenders of current real estate valuations can draw upon an array of justifications, but they boil down to the same one used to justify valuations in every asset bubble: this time it's different.

Is there anything in this chart that suggests this belief might be misplaced, for example, that credit/asset bubbles burst with a rough time/amplitude symmetry?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/0mwaQUSBjpE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Sebelius Faces The Music – Live Webcast

In yesterday's stage-setting drama, "coming in mid-November" replaced of the often heard "plead the fifth" as response of choice for Marilyn Tavenner (CMS Administrator). Today brings the main event, amid another server crash, as Kathleen Sebelius (HHS Secretary) takes the stand to explain healthcare.gov's shortcomings and how great it will all be at some point in the future if we just have some patience, spend a few more billions of taxpayer money on lines of code, and ignore the fact that the website is just the start of the problems with Obamacare… Her initial remarks (released early – below) are almost exactly the same as her testimony to Congress (and a carbon copy of Tavenner's remarks): “I want to assure you that HealthCare.gov can be fixed, and we are working around the clock to give you the experience that you deserve.”

 

Tavenner's remarks yesterday:

 

Via FOX,

Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., speaking on the Senate floor, called Tuesday for Sebelius' resignation. Alexander is the top Republican on the Senate health panel.

 

"Mr. President, at some point there has to be accountability. Expecting this secretary to be able to fix what she hasn't been able to fix during the last three-and-a-half years is unrealistic," he said. "It's throwing good money after bad. It's time for her to resign — someone else to take charge."

 

 

In written testimony released ahead of today's hearing, Sebelius vowed to improve the website and said the consumer experience to date is "not acceptable." But she defended the law itself and said extensive work and testing is being done.

 

"We are working to ensure consumers' interaction with HealthCare.gov is a positive one, and that the Affordable Care Act  fully delivers on its promise," she said in the prepared remarks.

 

Sebelius blamed the website contractors and the "initial wave of interest" for the glitches, but expressed confidence in the experts and specialists working to solve "complex technical issues."

 

"By enlisting additional technical help, aggressively monitoring errors, testing to prevent new issues from cropping up, and regularly deploying fixes to the site, we are working to ensure consumers’ interaction with HealthCare.gov is a positive one, and that the Affordable Care Act fully delivers on its promise," she said.

 

Live Stream:


Live streaming video by Ustream

 

Full statement from Sebelius:

 

HHRG-113-IF00-Wstate-SebeliusK-20131030.pdf

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/aw6u7O0x3ug/story01.htm Tyler Durden

CPI Drops, Misses By Most In 14 Months

If there was another reason for the Fed to keep its foot ‘through’ the floor, it is the fact that despite a record growth in the Fed balance sheet YoY, CPI (ex food and energy) dropped to 1.7% and missed by its biggest margin in 14 months. This is the 2nd lowest print in two-and-a-half years. Perhaps most dismally, real hourly wages rose at only 0.9% year-over-year – around half the rate of inflation. Overall, energy costs rose the most MoM (+0.8%) while Apparel fell 0.5% MoM (its biggest drop in 6 months as we suspect the JCP-driven sales deflation has begun already); and given Sebelius’ testimony today we note that healthcare costs are up 2.4% YoY (almost triple the rate of wage increase).

CPI YoY Ex Food and Energy saw its biggest miss in 14 months…

 

As overall CPI also dropped with Energy and utilities costs rising the most…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/_xVQxN0CGbs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Welcome To The Non-Recovery: ADP Payrolls Miss Big, Plunge To Lowest Since April (With Infographic)

As we mentioned earlier, if there was one thing that would guarantee an 1800 print in the Stalingrad and Propaganda 500 index today, it was a 0 or negative ADP print. Well, it wasn’t that bad. But it was close: with a paltry 130K private jobs created in October, this was a monthly plunge in private (i.e. non-government) payrolls, well below expectations, and substantially lower than the September 166K print which also was revised lower to 145K. It was also the 4th consecutive monthly decline starting with a 190K print in June, and it’s all downhill from there. Finally, this was the 7th ADP miss in the past 8 months. We can’t wait as the spinmasters do all they can to explain how private payrolls were affected by a government shutdown.

Broken down by jobs, while there was finally a pick up in manufacturing (+5K), and Construction (+14K) jobs, this was more than offset by the best paying jobs of all, Financial Activities, which dipped by 5K in October, in line with the wholesale termination of every banker dealing with the mortgage banking loss center.

Blame Obamacare: the small firms showed the smallest job gain in 10 months, medium-sized firms: smallest gain in 14 months.

Report highlights:

From the ADP press release:

“According to ADP National Employment Report findings, the U.S. private sector added a total of 130,000 jobs during the month of October, well below the average of the last twelve months,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Small business growth was down from the previous month, while payrolls among large enterprises showed an increase.”

And of course: here comes the government shutdown blame. Quote Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The government shutdown and debt limit brinksmanship hurt the already softening job market in October. Average monthly growth has fallen below 150,000. Any further weakening would signal rising unemployment. The weaker job growth is evident across most industries and company sizes.”

Someone please tell Zandi private jobs are not, well, non-private. Ah, forget it.

This is what a New Normal non-recovery looks like:

How ADP compares to BLS:

 

Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Jobs by Industry:

 

Finally, thanks to the ADP being the most socially-media friendly jobs release organization, here is their October infographic:

 

Infographic: ADP National Employment Report Shows 130,000 Jobs Added in October


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/7AswBjXhlsY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

What the POTUS Can Learn From a 16-Year Old Girl About the Proper Way to Handle Global Conflict

I present to you a video that clearly demonstrates that intelligence has nothing to do with age, as 16-year-old Pakistani teenager Malala Yousafzai demonstrates far more compassion and wisdom about the topic of war than POTUS Barack Obama, who remains nothing but a sock puppet for European and Wall Street banking interests that control the US Central Bank and direct all “war-profiteering-for corporate interests” efforts. When she was just 14-years-old, the Taliban boarded a bus in Pakistan that Ms. Yousafzai was riding and shot her in the head for campaigning for a woman’s right to education. Since then, Ms. Yousafzai has shown remarkable courage, refusing to back down to the Taliban.

 

When asked what she would do if the Taliban came to kill her again, Ms. Yousafzia provided a most remarkable and courageous answer:

 

“I would reply to myself, ‘Malala, just take a shoe and hit him. But then I said, ‘If you hit a Talib with your shoe, then there would be no difference between you and the Talib. You must not treat others with cruelty and that much harsh[ness], you must fight others but through peace and through dialogue and through education.’ Then I said I will tell him how important education is and that ‘I even want education for your children as well.’ And I will tell him, ‘That’s what I want to tell you, now do what you want.'”

 

Just a few months into Barack’s first term as POTUS, I penned an article, “8 Reasons Why the Obama Administration Will Not Solve This Crisis By the End of 2009” due to the fact that President Obama’s cabinet appointments [did] not reflect, in the slightest manner, the enormous change that he spoke of during his campaign.” As absurd as that article title sounds today, many in the mainstream media were in the midst of a full-blown love affair with the then newly appointed (versus elected) President and some had illogically suggested that the POTUS would solve the Wall Street-created crisis by the end of his first year in office. Diametrically opposed to this mountain of propaganda, I warned a few months into Obama’s term: “Don’t let President Obama’s professed anger regarding the $165 million of bonuses slotted for AIG executives fool you.” With politicians, lies come as naturally to them as breathing, and one most be careful to judge a politician’s character by his or her actions, not his or her words. Why do I bring this up? Because bankers are inextricably linked to all major conflicts over resources that take place around the world, as US Brigadier General Smedley Butler so clearly described in his book “War is a Racket”. In the 1930s, after General Butler realized that he was being used as a pawn for the benefit of Wall Street interests, he declared, “I believe in making Wall Street pay for it, taking Wall Street by the throat and shaking it up.” But here we stand today, more than 80 years later, and Wall Street is still making us pay for all of their sins.


I truly hope this video makes it to the desktop of the POTUS himself, as he could learn a lot from Ms. Yousafzai to re-think his drone policy, and use education, as suggested by Ms. Yousafzai, to fight terrorism instead of ordering drones to drop bombs that many times end up killing innocent women and children, and instead of defeating terrorism, only serve to fuel more future retaliatory terrorism. To compound the errors of his drone policy, the POTUS has simply resorted to imprisoning journalists that know the truth about innocents murdered by his drones to prevent the world from learning the same truths.  In fact, the Obama administration interrogated, beat, and told Yemeni journalist Abdulelah Haider Shaye “we will destroy your life if you keep on talking about [the US drone massacre of 14 innocent women, five of whom were pregnant, and 21 innocent children, the youngest who was 2-years old]” that occurred in Al Majalah village in southern Yemen in 2009. Perhaps it’s time for an undeserving former Nobel Peace Prize winner to learn a thing or two from the young girl that should have won the Nobel Peace Prize this year – the wonderful and brilliant Malala Yousafzia.


 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/MxbMML1I8bU/story01.htm smartknowledgeu

NOctaper Or Shocktaper: Deutsche Bank’s Five Reasons Why The Fed May Stun Everyone Once Again

Remember when minutes before the September FOMC announcement everyone was absolutely certain the Fed would announce tapering, only to leave a lot of very angry traders fuming? Fast forward one month when everyone is absolutely certain, again, that there is no way the Fed can announce anything even remotely suggesting a taper. One wonders though: since the Fed has by now burned all credibility bridges, and since the capital market bubble is now far greater than it was when both Stein and Bernanke, implicitly, warned about a building asset bubble (a chorus which has now been joined by JPM, Pimco and BlackRock) in early 2013, would today not be the best opportunity for the Fed to once again stun the market with a dramatic policy U-Turn, just to teach those momentum wave-riding vacuum tubes who is in charge? Probably not. However, as Lloyd Christamas noted, there is a chance. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid explains why.

So will today’s FOMC be as surprising to the market as the September meeting? Almost certainly not but you can’t completely rule out a small taper for the following reasons: 1) In the September meeting a large majority of FOMC participants expected the taper to start before December; 2) the fiscal situation has been kicked down the road for a while; 3) financial conditions have arguably eased since the last meeting with rates lower and equities higher and 4) many of the members won’t be on the committee into next year and may want to make a statement before leaving; and 5) they may feel a little bruised by the market’s verbal reaction last time.

 

Overall we continue to think the Fed are trapped to a large degree by the liquidity they’ve provided financial markets over recent years which could destabilise assets if they reversed course without a strong economic recovery. Indeed the current data uncertainties is probably the biggest reason for holding fire at the moment, especially so soon after the shutdown. Indeed our view is that the Fed may have to adjust their criteria for tapering if they want to make regular cuts to QE in 2014. We’re not sure how employment is going to suddenly pick up at this relatively mature stage of the cycle.

 

However when all said and done, the Fed do seem to want to taper and although we think they won’t until well into next year, we can’t help but think that the Fed are currently unpredictable enough at the moment that we need to be vigilant tonight and indeed in December. The story of the next 6 months could be very little tapering but a swing between liquidity complacency and liquidity fear. Maybe we’re veering towards the former at the moment. DB’s Peter Hooper expects today’s FOMC to be most likely a “wait and see event” though he sees the case for a taper now is about as strong as it was in September when it was a very close call.

To all of the above we add one more reason: the following headline from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, which hit earlier.

  • MOFCOM: U.S. POLICY CHANGE MAY CAUSE CAPITAL SWING FOR CHINA.

And so, just like in 2011, China is once again openly complaining about QE (and, tangentially, the inflationary implications it has on the Chinese economy). Recall that it was the soaring Chinese inflation in 2011 that sent gold from roughly where it is now, to all time highs. So if we have a repeat, even as the entire world is now effectively begging Mr. Debtfire to taper, will the BIS’ gold selling team headed by Michael Charoze out of Hong Kong be able to contain that one last remnant of the Fed’s idiotic monetary policies? Stay tuned.

As for today, our personal hope is no taper now… or ever. After all, the faster the Fed proceeds to monetize everything, and in unlimited amounts, the faster this centrally-planned charade finally ends.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/RhYULJNkvKg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

NOctaper Or Shocktaper: Deutsche Bank's Five Reasons Why The Fed May Stun Everyone Once Again

Remember when minutes before the September FOMC announcement everyone was absolutely certain the Fed would announce tapering, only to leave a lot of very angry traders fuming? Fast forward one month when everyone is absolutely certain, again, that there is no way the Fed can announce anything even remotely suggesting a taper. One wonders though: since the Fed has by now burned all credibility bridges, and since the capital market bubble is now far greater than it was when both Stein and Bernanke, implicitly, warned about a building asset bubble (a chorus which has now been joined by JPM, Pimco and BlackRock) in early 2013, would today not be the best opportunity for the Fed to once again stun the market with a dramatic policy U-Turn, just to teach those momentum wave-riding vacuum tubes who is in charge? Probably not. However, as Lloyd Christamas noted, there is a chance. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid explains why.

So will today’s FOMC be as surprising to the market as the September meeting? Almost certainly not but you can’t completely rule out a small taper for the following reasons: 1) In the September meeting a large majority of FOMC participants expected the taper to start before December; 2) the fiscal situation has been kicked down the road for a while; 3) financial conditions have arguably eased since the last meeting with rates lower and equities higher and 4) many of the members won’t be on the committee into next year and may want to make a statement before leaving; and 5) they may feel a little bruised by the market’s verbal reaction last time.

 

Overall we continue to think the Fed are trapped to a large degree by the liquidity they’ve provided financial markets over recent years which could destabilise assets if they reversed course without a strong economic recovery. Indeed the current data uncertainties is probably the biggest reason for holding fire at the moment, especially so soon after the shutdown. Indeed our view is that the Fed may have to adjust their criteria for tapering if they want to make regular cuts to QE in 2014. We’re not sure how employment is going to suddenly pick up at this relatively mature stage of the cycle.

 

However when all said and done, the Fed do seem to want to taper and although we think they won’t until well into next year, we can’t help but think that the Fed are currently unpredictable enough at the moment that we need to be vigilant tonight and indeed in December. The story of the next 6 months could be very little tapering but a swing between liquidity complacency and liquidity fear. Maybe we’re veering towards the former at the moment. DB’s Peter Hooper expects today’s FOMC to be most likely a “wait and see event” though he sees the case for a taper now is about as strong as it was in September when it was a very close call.

To all of the above we add one more reason: the following headline from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, which hit earlier.

  • MOFCOM: U.S. POLICY CHANGE MAY CAUSE CAPITAL SWING FOR CHINA.

And so, just like in 2011, China is once again openly complaining about QE (and, tangentially, the inflationary implications it has on the Chinese economy). Recall that it was the soaring Chinese inflation in 2011 that sent gold from roughly where it is now, to all time highs. So if we have a repeat, even as the entire world is now effectively begging Mr. Debtfire to taper, will the BIS’ gold selling team headed by Michael Charoze out of Hong Kong be able to contain that one last remnant of the Fed’s idiotic monetary policies? Stay tuned.

As for today, our personal hope is no taper now… or ever. After all, the faster the Fed proceeds to monetize everything, and in unlimited amounts, the faster this centrally-planned charade finally ends.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/RhYULJNkvKg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Frontrunning: October 30

  • Morning Humor from Hilsenrath – Fed Balance Sheet Not Seen Returning to Normal Until at Least 2019 (WSJ)
  • Health Policies Canceled in Latest Hurdle for Obamacare (BBG)
  • Was there anything RBS was not manipulating? RBS Said to Review Currency-Trading Practices Amid Probe (BBG)
  • Sebelius to Testify Before House Panel (WSJ)
  • And more humor: Spain’s Statistics Institute Confirms End of Recession (WSJ) … and now we await the triple dip
  • Finally some credible reporting on Yellen’s “foresight” – Yellen feared housing bust but did not raise public alarm (Reuters)
  • Japan government moves closer to Fukushima takeover (FT)
  • China to step up own security after new NSA allegations (Reuters)
  • Blackstone Vies With Goldman in Spain Rental Housing Bet (BBG)
  • In new U.S. budget talks, Republican proposal has flipped the script (Reuters)
  • Madoff Money to Japan Mob Ties Breed Banks’ Global Pains (BBG)
  • German Unemployment Rises a Third Month as Growth Slows (BBG)
  • China Detains Five Over Tiananmen Crash, Calls It ‘Terrorist Attack’ (WSJ)
  • Top Central Banker in Norway Prefers Housing Slump to Gains (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* U.S. officials said electronic spying that ignited a political firestorm in France and Spain recently was carried out by their own intelligence services and not by the NSA. The phone records were shared with the U.S.

* Problems surrounding the launch of the federal health-care law broadened, as concerns that thousands of Americans are getting insurance-cancellation notices bubbled over at a hearing on Capitol Hill.

* SAC Capital will plead guilty to securities fraud as part of a landmark criminal insider-trading settlement with federal prosecutors set to be announced by next week.

* Dutch lender Rabobank agreed to pay $1.07 billion to settle accusations that it skewed key financial benchmarks and its chief executive resigned, the latest casualty of a global interest-rate-rigging scandal.

* A multibillion-dollar settlement between JPMorgan Chase and the U.S. over soured mortgage bonds is at risk of collapsing because of disagreements related to a criminal probe of the bank and its effort to get penalties reimbursed by a government-controlled fund, according to people familiar with the discussions.

* Operators of U.S. truck fleets are accelerating a shift to natural gas fueled trucks, betting on new engines that promise to drop the cost of shifting from diesel fuel.

* BlackBerry Ltd executives flew to California to meet with Facebook Inc last week to gauge its interest in a potential bid for the struggling smartphone maker, according to people familiar with the matter.

* Google Inc’s smartwatch is in late-stage development and the company is in talks with Asian suppliers to begin mass production of the device, people familiar with the matter said.

 

FT

Rabobank agreed to a $1 billion fine to U.S., British and Dutch authorities, admitting that dozens of employees manipulated the Libor and other key benchmark interest rates over six years.

Barclays may need to pay out as much as $700 million to U.S. hedge fund Black Diamond, after losing an appeal in a five-year legal struggle when a New York supreme court found the bank liable for breach of contract over a vast credit derivatives transaction.

Creditor banks of Brazilian tycoon Eike Batista’s OGX on Monday struck a private deal to sell off the troubled oil company’s natural gas business. The move has other creditors and shareholders anxious that they will be left with next to nothing if OGX files for bankruptcy.

BP’s Chief Executive Bob Dudley said the UK oil major plans to sell a further $10 billion worth of assets by the end of 2015, which could signal higher payouts to investors.

DVD rental chain Blockbuster’s British arm is set to go back into administration for the second time in 10 months, putting 2,000 jobs at risk after poor retail and rental sales.

 

NYT

* Twitter, which has been built around 140-character snippets of text since its founding in 2006, has added photo and video previews to the feed of items that users see when they log onto the service from the Web or mobile applications.

* When Brian Sozzi, the Chief Executive of Belus Capital Advisors, visited Sears locations in New York and New Jersey this month, he said, he found barren shelves, haphazard displays and badly stained carpets. Also missing: customers.

* The Senate voted unanimously to confirm President Obama’s two picks for the Federal Communications Commission, Tom Wheeler as chairman and Michael O’Rielly as a commissioner.

* Samsung recorded its highest share of smartphone shipments to date in the third quarter, while Apple showed more modest gains, according to a new report from Strategy Analytics.

* The White House has long been aware in general terms of the National Security Agency’s overseas eavesdropping, the nation’s top spymaster told a House hearing on Tuesday.

* The CBS Corp is developing a 24-hour news channel that would be streamed online and would mainly repurpose video and reporting already produced by CBS News, according to executives involved in the planning.

* LinkedIn announced strong user growth and better-than-expected third-quarter revenue on Tuesday, but issued a conservative revenue forecast for the fourth quarter and the 2013 fiscal year.

* After months of wrangling and tough negotiating, Dell Inc is finally going private. The computer company said on Tuesday that its $24.9 billion sale to its founder, Michael Dell, and the investment firm Silver Lake had closed.

* Nextdoor, a social network for neighbors, is moving into elite territory. The San Francisco startup announced a $60 million investment on Tuesday, led by Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and Tiger Global Management, two prominent venture capital firms.

* Infosys, the giant Indian technology outsourcing company, has agreed to pay $34 million in a civil settlement after federal prosecutors in Texas found it had committed “systemic visa fraud a
nd abuse” when bringing temporary workers from India for jobs in American businesses, according to court documents and officials familiar with the case.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Canada has promised the European Union it will be able to take advantage of any further loosening of foreign investment restrictions on the country’s telecom sector.

* A heated debate is raging among some of the biggest names in the food world over a boycott of Canadian seafood, a move aimed at ending the annual seal hunt.

Reports in the business section:

* United States Steel Corp will permanently cease steel production at its Hamilton mill at the end of the year, ending an era that goes back more than a century. The permanent end of steel making in what was the cradle of the Canadian steel industry is the latest step in what has been a troubled history for U.S. Steel.

* The race is on for one of Canada’s hottest retail sites after Sears Canada Inc abandoned its flagship store at the Toronto Eaton Center. U.S. department store Nordstrom Inc is in talks with the mall’s owner, Cadillac Fairview Corp, to move into the space – and could be close to a deal, industry sources said.

NATIONAL POST

* A report tabled Tuesday by the federal Conservative government in the House of Commons, explaining the final negotiated outcomes of the Canada-EU free-trade agreement, has shed more light on what is being billed as the largest and most wide-ranging free trade deal for Canada since the North American Free Trade Agreement.

* The unsteady sand of who is considered a terrorist in Canada has once again shifted in favor of a Tamil woman living in Toronto, whose politician husband was assassinated in Sri Lanka while attending Christmas Eve mass in 2005. Weeks after Joseph Pararajasingham, a member of parliament in Sri Lanka, was shot dead, Canada granted residency to his widow. In 2011, however, the Immigration and Refugee Board concluded that the woman was a member of a terrorist group and should be deported because of her ties to her husband, who had ties to the Tamil Tigers.

FINANCIAL POST

* Stephen Poloz, Canada’s new head of monetary policy, is already being credited with putting a kinder, gentler face on the Bank of Canada, and cutting through decades-old jargon that is central-bank speak.

* Any chill in foreign investment resulting from tougher Industry Canada reviews hasn’t caught up with the British, who are warming up to the Western Canadian energy economy like never before. Energy giants such as Centrica, BG Group, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, are all growing their Western Canadian operations, encouraged by the British government, the recently announced Canada-EU free trade deal and perception that the Canadian government welcomes their business.

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– The net profit of 116 Chinese property companies increased 30.6 percent in the first nine months of this year, according to Wind, a financial data provider.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– China Development Bank Corp is working with local governments and enterprises to review re-mortgage financing issues of photovoltaic power plants, according to sources. The bank is developing new finance rules to address industry financing difficulties, they said.

CHINA BUSINESS NEWS

– China Vanke Co Ltd confirmed on Tuesday that it will buy up to HK$3 billion ($386.9 million) worth of shares in the Hong Kong IPO of Huishang Bank, making it the largest shareholder.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– China’s central bank has set up a firewall that can distinguish between accounts set up within and outside of Shanghai’s pilot free-trade zone so that authorities can monitor transactions in real time, said Li Xunlei, chief economist at Haitong Securities.

CHINA DAILY

– Sixteen percent of Chinese households have had their homes demolished or seized during China’s urbanization drive, but few have received support in gaining employment or access to social security services, a survey of some 12,500 people nationwide showed.

Less than 80 percent of those who had land seized said they received compensation, while 94 percent of those whose homes were demolished had received compensation.

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Agree Realty (ADC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
BP (BP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale
Baidu (BIDU) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Brean Capital
Baidu (BIDU) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
Electronic Arts (EA) upgraded to Strong Buy from Hold at Needham
Facebook (FB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG
Masco (MAS) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James
Nanometrics (NANO) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Nike (NKE) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Downgrades

Aflac (AFL) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Ambarella (AMBA) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Axiall (AXLL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James
CAI International (CAP) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Calix (CALX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Carpenter Technology (CRS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Changyou.com (CYOU) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Chesapeake Granite (CHKR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Cirrus Logic (CRUS) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Cyan (CYNI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Cyan (CYNI) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest
Dana Holding (DAN) downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital
Dana Holding (DAN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc
Digital Realty (DLR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Evercore
Digital Realty (DLR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Plantronics (PLT) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Questcor (QCOR) downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital
SanDisk (SNDK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Sensata (ST) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
U.S. Steel (X) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
UBS (UBS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Union Pacific (UNP) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Western Union (WU) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Willis Group (WSH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Xylem (XYL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc

Initiations

Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI) initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital
Dick’s Sporting (DKS) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
Ecolab (ECL) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Skechers (SKX) initiated with a Buy at Brean Capital

HOT STOCKS

Barclays (BCS) said cooperating with foreign exchange trading probe
Nidec (NJ) to acquire Honda Elesys (HMC) for about $500M
Teleflex (TFX) to acquire Vidacare for $262.5M
Western Union (WU) no longer expects operating profit growth in 2014
LinkedIn (LNKD) said mobile continues to be ‘fastest’ growing product
Aflac (AFL) sees FY14 share repurchases $800M-$1B
Wi-LAN (WILN) to explore strategic alternatives

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night
and today include:
Pioneer Energy (PES), TE Connectivity (TEL), AU Optronics (AUO), Range Resources (RRC), Trulia (TRLA), Charles River Labs (CRL), NuVasive (NUVA), Ameriprise (AMP), Ryland Group (RYL), Take-Two (TTWO), DreamWorks (DWA), Questcor (QCOR), IAC (IACI), Western Union (WU), LinkedIn (LNKD), Electronic Arts (EA), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Gilead (GILD)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Praxair (PX), Universal Health (UHS), SL Industries (SLI), EXCO Resources (XCO), Genworth (GNW), Wabash (WNC), Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), Aflac (AFL), Cabot (CBT), CBRE Group (CBG), Big 5 Sporting (BGFV), Rubicon (RBCN), Caesar’s (CZR), Yelp (YELP), Plantronics (PLT), CAI International (CAP)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
NICE Systems (NICE), Ocean Shore Holding (OSHC), RPX Corp. (RPXC), FEI Company (FEIC), PAREXEL (PRXL), Kforce (KFRC), Danaos (DAC), Sonus Networks (SONS)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

  • Operators of some of the largest U.S. truck fleets, including Lowe’s (LOW), Procter & Gamble (PG) and UPS (UPS) are accelerating a shift to natural gas fueled trucks (CMI, VOLVY, CNW, SWFT), betting on new engine technology that promises to lower the cost of shifting from diesel fuel, the Wall Street Journal reports
  • For the holidays, Barnes & Noble (BKS) is heavily discounting Nook HD tablets originally introduced in the fall of 2012. The only new device it will sell during the holidays is an updated version of its Nook GlowLight black and white e-reader. The device will be unveiled today, the Wall Street Journal reports
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its massive bond-buying campaign when it concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday and may point to softer readings on the U.S. economy to signal that the policy will be extended into 2014. An announcement will come at  2 p.m., Reuters reports
  • Adobe Systems (ADBE) said the scope of a cyber-security breach disclosed on October 3 was far bigger than initially reported, with attackers obtaining data on more than 38M customer accounts. Hackers also had stolen part of the source code to Photoshop editing software widely used by professional photographers, Reuters reports
  • Allowing Americans more time to enroll for health coverage under Obamacare may increase premiums and cut into profits, insurers (AET, WLP, UNH, HNT) are telling members of Congress in a bid to stop such a move, Bloomberg reports
  • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), with over 7,000 wells in the largest U.S. oil field, may draw buyers from Chevron (CVX) to ConocoPhillips (COP) to one of the industry’s biggest takeover targets. Pioneer’s market value more than doubled this year to $29B, Bloomberg reports

SYNDICATE

Ascent Solar (ASTI) raises $10M in a registered direct offering
Brixmor (BRX) 41.25M share IPO priced at $20.00
Criteo (CRTO) 8.08M share IPO priced at $31.00
HCA Holdings (HCA) files to sell 30M shares of common stock for holders
Mazor Robotics (MZOR) 2.4M share Secondary priced at $17.00
Surgical Care Affiliates (SCAI) 9.778M share IPO priced at $24.00
Veracyte (VCYT) 5M share IPO priced at $13.00
Yelp (YELP) files to sell $250M of Class A common stock


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/W4Uj4vqEZ0c/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Despite (Or Thanks To) More Macro Bad News, Overnight Futures Levitate To New All Time Highs

The overnight fireworks out of China’s interbank market, which saw a surge in repo and Shibor rates (O/N +78 to 5.23%, 1 Week +64.6 to 5.59%) once more following the lack of a follow through reverse repo as described previously, and once again exposed the rogue gallery of sellside “analysts” as clueless penguins all of whom predicted a quick resumption of Chinese interbank normalcy, did absolutely nothing to make the San Diego’s weatherman‘s forecast of the overnight Fed-driven futures any more difficult: “stocks will be… up. back to you.” And so they were, despite as DB puts it, “yesterday saw another round of slightly softer US data that helped drive the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to fresh highs” and “the release of weaker than expected Japanese IP numbers hasn’t dampened sentiment in Japanese equities” or for that matter megacorp Japan Tobacco firing 20% of its workforce – thanks Abenomics. Ah, remember when data mattered? Nevermind – long live and prosper in the New Normal.

Heading into US trading, today the markets will be transfixed by the FOMC announcement at 2 pm, which will likely say nothing at all (although there is a chance for a surprise – more shortly), and to a lesser extent the ADP Private Payrolls number, which as many have suggested, that if it prints at 0 or goes negative, 1800 on the S&P is assured as early as today.

On today’s US docket

  • US: MBA mortgage applications, cons (12:00)
  • US: ADP employment change 150k (13:15)
  • US: CPI m/m cons 0.2% (13:30)
  • US: FOMC rate decision, cons unch 0.25% (19:30)

Market Recap from Ransquawk

Despite the looming risk event (FOMC), credit spreads tightened and stocks traded higher, with oil & gas sector outperforming following earnings from ENI. In spite of supply from Italy and Germany, Bunds also traded higher, supported by the positive NCR, with coupons & redemptions coming from Spain and Italy this week.  Italy successfully sold EUR 6bln in 5 and 10y BTPs, while German raised EUR 3.413bln in 2% 2023.

In terms of macroeconomic releases this morning, German joblessness rose to its highest level since June 2011 in October, but the unemployment rate remained close to its lowest level since reunification. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest ADP Employment Change, CPI report for the month of September and also await the outcome of the FOMC meeting. On the corporate front, Visa, GM, Facebook and Starbucks are set to report earnings today.

Overnight bulletin recap from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • EU’s Rehn sees a quite broad-based economy recovery in Europe and said that rapid initial fiscal tightening was essential in crisis and that Europe can now afford slower fiscal consolidation.
  • Apart from another round of earnings and a slew of macroeconomic releases, market participants will await FOMC rate decision due out later today.
  • Treasuries gain before Fed’s two-day policy meeting ends in Washington, statement due at 2pm, and as week’s $96b note auctions conclude with $29b 7Y notes.
  • Fed expected to leave asset purchases unchanged at $45b in Treasuries, $40b in MBS; for roundup of views
  • 7Y to be sold today yield 1.890% in WI trading; drew 2.058% in Sept. after 2.21% in August, highest in two years. 5Y notes sold yesterday drew 1.300%, near 1pm WI level
  • ECB says euro-area banks expect to ease credit standards on loans to companies in 4Q, the first such expectation since 4Q 2009; also said banks expect to ease standards on consumer credit and mortgages in 4Q
  • China’s yuan fell for a fourth day, the longest losing streak since July, as the central bank cut the currency’s reference rate amid a rally in the dollar
  • Sovereign yields mostly lower, EU peripheral spreads widen. Nikkei +1.2%, leading Asian equities higher; European stocks, U.S. equity-index futures gain. WTI crude lower; gold and copper rise

Asian Headlines

Movements in Chinese money market rates reflect temporary liquidity shortage and the PBOC is not tightening policy by limiting interbank funding, according to a unidentified person from the PBOC.

China’s overnight repo weighted average rate hit highest since June at 5.28%, whilst the 7 day repo weighted average rate also hit highest since June at 5.68%.

Japanese Industrial Production (Sep P) M/M 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. -0.9%); Y/Y 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. -0.4%)

The BoJ is likely to raise FY 2014 Japan GDP forecast from 1.3% on government stimulus measures.

EU & UK Headlines

EU’s Rehn sees a quite broad-based economy recovery in Europe and said that rapid initial fiscal tightening was essential in crisis and that Europe can now afford slower fiscal consolidation.

German Unemployment Change (000’s) (Oct) M/M 2k vs. Exp. 0k (Prev. 25k, Rev. 24k)
German Unemployment Rate (Oct) M/M 6.90% vs. Exp. 6.90% (Prev. 6.90%)
German CPI – Saxony (Oct) Y/Y 1.1% (Prev. 1.5%)
German CPI – Hesse (Oct) Y/Y 0/9% (Prev. 1.1%)
German CPI – Bavaria (Oct) Y/Y 1.0% (Prev. 1.4%)
German CPI – Brandenburg (Oct) Y/Y 1.2% (Prev. 1.3%)
German CPI – North Rhine Westphalia (Oct) Y/Y 1.4% (Prev. 1.5%)

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (Oct) M/M -0.01 vs. Exp. -0.19 (Prev. -0.20, Rev. -0.19)

BoE governor Carney said 7% unemployment threshold right time to adjust policy. Carney said won’t tighten policy until recovery is sustained. Carney added that the UK’s recovery was being driven by the housing market.

Germany sells EUR 3.413bln in 2% 2023 Bund Auction, b/c 1.7 (Prev. 1.3) and avg. yield 1.71% (Prev. 1.79%), retention 14.6% (Prev. 18.8%)

Italian bond auction results, sells EUR 6bln vs. Exp. EUR 6bln
– Sells EUR 3bln in 3.50% 01/18, b/c 1.65 (Prev. 1.43) and avg. yield 2.89% (Prev. 3.38%)
– Sells EUR 3bln in 4.50% 03/24, b/c 1.53 (Prev. 1.38) and avg. yield 4.11% (Prev. 4.50%)

Barclays month-end extension: Euro Agg +0.08y
Barclays month-end extension: Sterling Agg +0.02y

US Headlines

A handful of Democratic senators, many facing tough elections in conservative states next year, are beginning to echo longstanding Republican demands for delays and other technical changes in the law, including to the individual mandate that will impose a tax penalty on every uninsured American beginning
next year.

Equities

Looming risk event failed to dent investor appetite for risk and instead stocks traded higher, with oil & gas sector outperforming following an impressive earnings report from ENI. Elsewhere, Barclays shares also rose after the bank reported inline with exp. adjusted pretax profits, while also noting that the amount that it has set aside to pay compensation for mis-sold personal protection insurance is unchanged at GBP 3.95bln.

FX

EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded steady this morning, with GBP/USD moving back towards its 21DMA line as market participants refrained from committing ahead of the key FOMC rate decision later on today.

Combination of higher gold prices, together with touted demand from Asian central bank saw AUD/USD trend higher overnight in Asia and in Europe this morning. Technically, upside resistance level is seen at the 21DMA line.

Commodities

Gold on the spot
market is cheaper in Shanghai than in London for the first time in 2013,
afte
r trading at a premium for most of the year. In fact, the premium
had widened in April to USD 30 a troy ounce as tumbling prices prompted a
rush of buying by Chinese consumers and investors.

China’s
alumina capacity may rise to to 60mln tonnes by end of 2013 57.2mln
tonnes in 2012, according to Chalco’s Zhengzhou research alumina
division director Yin.

Senator Menendez has said that new
sanctions are to be debated in the Senate that will halve Iran’s oil
sales by around 500,000bpd. However, analysts have said that these
measures are unrealistic.

Rosneft have asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to sell the states 20% holding in the Novorossiisk Commmercial Sea Port to the Russian oil producer.

SocGen summarizes the key macro catalysts of the day

The outcome of the FOMC meeting today should be straightforward, with no change expected to the current asset purchase rate of USD85bn per month thanks to sluggish US economic data and a H2 drag on growth due to the government shutdown. There is no press conference, or for that matter even economic projections, planned after the FOMC meeting ends. So, from where will the markets take their cue, given the certainty in the status quo? Every wording in the outlook statement will be carefully scrutinised by the markets to discern how the Fed’s thinking has evolved after the recent softness in the labour market as well as the added uncertainty that the federal shutdown has induced. As a result, the FOMC minutes due to be released on 20 November will be of greater importance, and the markets will weigh the probability of tapering starting based on statements from Fed speakers in the interim. Profit taking and positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting have meant that the USD cut some losses vs most G10 counterparts yesterday. The Aussie remained the worst performer within the G10 space, registering a ~0.8% drop after RBA Governor Stevens commented that it will be “materially lower” than it is today. The rates markets, however, were calm as 10y treasuries continued to swing between gains and losses, with 10y rates ranging between 2.50% to 2.53%.

Ahead of the seminal FOMC outcome tonight, we have the KOF leading indicator from Switzerland, German unemployment and CPI data as well as consumer confidence data from the eurozone. In the US, we also have MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment and CPI data.

Within emerging markets, China continues to hog the limelight, as a cash injection of CNY13bn seemed to be insufficient to pull down the benchmark 7-day repo rate below 5%. By resetting the 7-day reverse repos at 4.1% (up 20bps) vs the 3.9% that was being offered at previous auctions since mid August, is the PBOC hinting at an upcoming mild tightening?

DB’s Jim Reid complete the overnight event walkthrough.

Aside from the FOMC, today will also see the release of the October ADP employment report which has become an increasingly good guide to payrolls over the last few months. DB’s Joe Lavorgna points out that since October 2012, when the vendor responsible for compiling the ADP survey changed from Macroeconomic Advisors to Moody’s, the absolute forecast miss between ADP and private payrolls has been just 38k. Looking just at the last six months to September, the average discrepancy between the two surveys has been around 36k on an absolute basis, including a couple of recent months (June and August) where the two measures were virtually the same. For the record, the consensus is expecting today’s ADP report to show a +150k gain, lower than last month’s +166k result. At the moment, Bloomberg consensus is pointing to a +155k gain in next week’s BLS private payrolls, and just a 115k gain in nonfarm payrolls (though these estimates will probably get revised after today’s ADP). The ADP report is due before the opening bell in New York, which will set the tone for trading before we get to the FOMC later in the day.

Overnight markets are trading with a positive tone across the board led by the TOPIX (+0.8%) and Hang Seng (+1.0%). The release of weaker than expected Japanese IP numbers (1.5% MoM vs 1.8% expected) hasn’t dampened sentiment in Japanese equities, and a strong gain in USDJPY (+0.5%) is probably helping. The Chinese seven day repo rate continues to climb (+45bp to 5.85%) after yesterday’s small RMB13bn liquidity injection by the PBoC was seen as mostly a symbolic move. Market chatter continues to suggest that the PBoC is attempting to limit recent consumer and house price inflation while others are attributing the recent money market rate rises to month-end effects and corporate tax payments. The rise in the repo rate hasn’t stopped A-shares from posting solid gains (+1.0%) today. Elsewhere S&P500 futures are flat, after a strong run late yesterday.

Indeed yesterday saw another round of slightly softer US data that helped drive the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Dow Jones (+0.7%) to fresh highs. European markets started off on a weaker footing, after a number of earnings misses from banks saw financial stocks struggle at the open. The sentiment improved later in the day, thanks to stronger earnings from the likes of BP. Indeed, the DAX (+0.48%) managed to break above the 9000 mark for the first time in the minutes before the close. The positive sentiment was evident across asset classes including credit where the European senior and sub financials indices grinded to new series tights. In the UK, there is increasing market chatter about what the Chancellor will decide in terms of RBS’ problem assets. RBS subordinated paper continues to be better bid, perhaps on reports that Osborne will avoid a breakup of the group.

Yesterday’s US dataflow supported those arguing for a later start to the taper. US retail sales for September were down 0.1% MoM (vs 0% expected) and retail sales ex auto and gas were up 0.4%, lower than the 0.5% expected. On the inflation side, September PPI was lower than expectations in the headline (- 0.1% vs. +0.2% expected). Consumer confidence for October dropped sharply to 71.2 (vs 75.0 expected, 79.7 previous) probably due to the impact of the fiscal standoff in Washington. Most surprising of all was the gain in the USD (dollar index +0.46%) which strengthened in spite of the weaker than expected US data. This weighed on EURUSD (-0.3%) which had its sharpest fall in three weeks. Treasuries traded in a tight range between 2.50% to 2.53%. An uneventful 5yr UST auction helped 10yr yields close at 2.50%, not far from where they are trading this morning.

Today will be mostly about the FOMC announcement and the ADP employment report. Ahead of that, German CPI and unemployment data will be released together with the Spanish preliminary Q3 GDP report. It will be a busy day on the government bond calendar with new Italian 5 & 10yr, German 10yr and 7yr UST supply. In the US, the other data releases of note are the monthly budget statement and CPI (consensus 0.2% MoM vs 0.1% in August). General Motors reports earnings today before the opening bell – its always interesting to hear management’s views on global demand, particularly in light of Ford’s upbeat assessment last week.


    



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