Category: zerohedge

Global Markets Rise Ahead Of Fed And Trade Talks As Gold Hits 8 Month High

World stocks inched up and the dollar steadied on Wednesday after Apple failed to disappoint investors and reported earnings, meeting Wall Street’s lowered expectations, and sending its stock higher in a muted session as investors braced for a barrage of catalysts, from US-China trade talks and the Fed meeting to an avalanche of corporate earnings. The pound halted a two-day decline and U.K. shares rallied after lawmakers voted to renegotiate Brexit.

The MSCI world equity index was fractionally in the green following gains in Asia overnight and a muted start to trading in Europe. The pan-European STOXX 600 benchmark index was flat.

US equity futures all rose, supported by with Apple shares which extending gains in pre-market trading after first-quarter earnings reassured investors that the worst may be past, although it remains very much unclear if Apple can pivot from a cell phone to a “services” company, especially with services revenue growth slowing sharply. In any case, investors were relieved that there was no more bad news after the company shocked financial markets at the start of this month with a revenue warning that sparked fears that U.S.-China trade tensions were taking a toll on the tech sector.

“Apple earnings delivered enough for investors to come back on board,” said Markets.com analyst Neil Wilson. “Although Apple still faces big questions like pricing structure, upgrade cycles, FX headwinds and weaker Chinese demand, we did get a positive answer to the key question on whether services margins can help rerate the stock higher.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was mixed after data showing euro-area economic confidence extended its worst losing streak in a decade, ahead of Sino-U.S. trade talks and a closely watched Fed announcement in which Chair Powell is likely to disappoint markets. The UK’s FTSE 100 traded higher by 0.9%, climbing for a second day and outperforming continental bourses, with CAC also rising 0.5%; DAX trades lower by 0.4%. Investors fretted about the possibility of a “no-deal” British departure from the European Union after UK lawmakers instructed Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday to reopen the treaty she had negotiated with Brussels to replace a controversial Irish border arrangement.

Goldman Sachs upped its “no-deal” Brexit probability to 15 percent from 10 percent, and cut the chance of Brexit not happening at all to 35 percent from 40 percent according to Reuters. “Tuesday’s Brexit amendments offered little additional clarity to anyone,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.

Earlier in the session, Stocks in Japan and China slid, while they increased in South Korea, Australia and Hong Kong. The yuan advanced to the highest since July on hopes for the U.S.-China trade talks getting underway in Washington. Growing fears that central banks are preparing to reflate “whatever it takes”, helped send gold to an eight-month high, underscoring lingering investor caution.

While Apple CEO Tim Cook said trade tensions between the United States and China were easing, lifting the mood before another round of official talks on Wednesday in Washington, that may prove another unreasonably optimistic take. The two sides are meeting next door to the White House in the highest-level talks since U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed a 90-day truce in their trade war in December.

“I expect that the Washington summit will help pave the way for an extension of the trade truce. This is also what markets expect and a failure of the talks is not priced in at all,” said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager at Anthilia Capital. Which is also why the risk of downside following the trade talks is far greater.

Elsewhere, following lackluster corporate earnings in January, all eyes will be on tech giants including Facebook and Microsoft when they report today. That will be the backdrop for the Fed’s policy decision and its assessment of the U.S. economy, while the arrival of Chinese negotiators in Washington for talks to resolve the ongoing trade dispute adds another layer of complexity.

Expectations from Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rates review are that policymakers will reinforce their recent dovish stance, given signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. “We believe the Fed is likely to show the flexibility markets are seeking at its upcoming meeting, as it balances still solid domestic economic growth against slower global growth and less significant, but persistent, domestic risks,” said John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist at LPL Financial.

And yet nobody really has any clue what happens next: “Such is the extent of uncertainty across global markets at the moment that investor sentiment is struggling to gain any meaningful traction,” Simon Ballard, a macro strategist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, said in a note. “The overarching veil of caution suggests that near-term positive momentum potential will likely remain limited. It is still very much global trade and the global rates outlook that sit at the heart of investor focus.”

European bond markets little changed across core and periphery, trading in tight ranges, as are USTs. BTPs shrug off talk of early Italian election, with 5-and 10-year auction well-received. Bloomberg USD index also steady, with Aussie dollar leading G-10 gainers, followed by the pound. Swedish krona edges lower after soft consumer confidence data. In commodities, WTI and Brent both up ~0.3%, metals trading higher across the board

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was confined to a narrow range as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve policy decision and U.S.-China trade talks. The pound climbed above $1.31 as bias remained to fade dips, while the Aussie led gains versus its G-10 peers as inflation data beat forecasts. Emerging-market currencies climbed to a fresh seven-month high: the Australian dollar surged 0.5 percent as inflation topped forecasts, while the Chinese yuan reached a six-month high in the offshore market before the trade talks. Elsewhere, the Mexican peso declined as Fitch Ratings cut the debt of state oil company PEMEX to one notch above junk.

Iron ore surged after Brazil’s Vale SA, the world’s largest producer, outlined plans to cut output after a deadly dam breach. Iron ore is now up nearly 30% since November.

WTI crude gained as traders assessed the impact of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, a major exporter. Brent (+0.6%) and WTI (+0.7%) prices are firmer as the complex reacts to the smaller than expected build in yesterday’s API Crude Stocks alongside reports that Saudi Arabia are planning on further oil production cuts and exports next month; additionally, believing that SPR releases are a solution to the US’s Venezuela oil shortage problem. Follows sanctions announced on Monday which aim to stop the proceeds from PDVSA’s crude exports of around 500,00 BPD to the US.

In addition to the above, expected data include mortgage applications and pending home sales. Alibaba, AT&T, ADP, Boeing, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Facebook, Mondelez, Qualcomm and Visa are among the slew of companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,645.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.08% to 357.51
  • MXAP up 0.1% to 154.52
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 504.93
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 20,556.54
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,550.76
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 27,642.85
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2,575.58
  • Sensex down 0.06% to 35,570.42
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,886.70
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,206.20
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.198%
  • Euro down 0.04% to $1.1428
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 2.277%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.254%
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $61.68/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,313.36
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.78

Asian stocks traded indecisively with the region tentative heading into this week’s key risk events and as participants also digested better than expected Apple results, which only provided brief support to US equity futures after-hours. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) were both subdued although strength across commodities just about kept the Australian benchmark afloat, while Tokyo stocks were weighed by currency effects and uninspiring corporate updates. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) declined at the open amid broad weakness in the region and with China Life Insurance shares heavily pressured after it flagged a 50%-70% drop in FY net, although Chinese markets then rebounded off lows amid a non-committal tone ahead of the looming US-China trade talks and after the PBoC injected liquidity for the 1st time in 8 days. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful with prices stuck to within this week’s tight range amid the indecision seen across the region and with an unchanged BoJ Rinban announcement largely ignored.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Firms Slash Profit Forecasts, Fueling Slowdown Fears
  • JPMorgan Names Filippo Gori as Deputy CEO for Asia Pacific
  • Malaysia Lets Goldman Decide How Much of $7.5b Bank Wants to Pay
  • Hong Kong Dollar Spikes as Pre-Holiday Liquidity Tightness Seen
  • Calm Has Descended on Asian Stocks Ahead of Fed, Trade Talks

Major European equities have been indecisive [Euro Stoxx 50 U/C] taking lead from the indecisive trade seen overnight ahead of today’s FOMC rate decision and press conference. Benefitting from sterling effects the FTSE 100 (+1.2%) is the outperforming index, with Burberry (+2.5%) in the green in sympathy with LVMH (+6.3%) after their earnings; and stating they are cautiously confident regarding 2019. Other luxury names such as Kering (+3.4%), Christian Dior (+4.0%) and Pandora (+2.0%) are also up in sympathy with LVMH. Sectors are mixed with outperformance in consumer discretionaries and some underperformance in telecom names. Other notable movers include Atos (+8.1%) who, following their earnings and 2019 guidance confirmation, are at the top of the Stoxx 600. Elsewhere, Novartis (-1.2%) are down following results, where the Co. missed on Q4 sales and operating income, as are Siemens (-1.5%) after their Q1 revenue came in just under expectations; Co. also stating they have made no further concessions on the Alstom (-0.5%) merger and will not pursue it at all costs.

Top European News

  • Siemens CEO Fires Broadside Against EU With Rail Deal on Brink
  • Atos to Hand Out Worldline Shares, Paving Way for More Deals
  • Santander Seeks to Move Past Orcel Fiasco With New Plan
  • U.K. Lending Slows as Brexit Uncertainty Hangs Over Outlook
  • Why Irish Reckon May Still Boxed In on the Brexit Backstop

In FX, the DXY index and Greenback overall looking to the Fed for more direction, as the DXY meanders between 95.875-682.

  • AUD – Firmer than expected Australian Q4 CPI data has helped to revive a flagging Aud/Usd, with the pair back up on the 0.7200 handle and close to daily chart resistance around 0.7207, while Aud/Nzd has rebounded firmly over 1.0500, as the Kiwi continues to meet offers around 0.6850 vs the Usd.
  • GBP – The next best G10 currency, as initial post-UK Parliamentary Brexit vote downside is reversed to an extent in Cable and Eur/Gbp, with the former reclaiming 1.3100+ status and perhaps deriving some respite from a bounce ahead of the 200 DMA (circa 1.3055). Meanwhile, the cross has recoiled relatively sharply from fresh peaks just shy of 0.8760 towards 0.8715, and perhaps the bulk of noted month end buying interest has now been transacted.
  • CAD – Another major ‘outperformer’, or at least holding a firmer line vs its US counterpart within a 1.3235-85 range, and still cushioned by the recuperation in crude prices. Ahead, perhaps a little independent impetus via Canadian average weekly earnings data, but in truth this pales against the sheer volume of US releases on tap, and of course the impending FOMC.
  • JPY/EUR – Both flat to a tad softer vs the Dollar, and very confined in the run up to the Fed, as Usd/Jpy continues oscillate between 109.00-50 amidst undulations in broad risk sentiment, and the single currency remains entrenched in a 1.1400-50 band (with the topside also ‘protected’ by the 200 DMA around 1.1444).
  • CHF/SEK – The Franc and Krona have extended recent losses/underperformance/retracements, with the Chf perhaps undermined by weaker than forecast Swiss KoF and ZEW sentiment surveys, while the Sek will not have been helped by declines in consumer and industrial confidence that will merely keep the Riksbank on the back-burner. Usd/Chf is hovering above 0.9950 and Eur/Sek just below 10.3900.

In commodities, Brent (+0.6%) and WTI (+0.7%) prices are firmer as the complex reacts to the smaller than expected build in yesterday’s API Crude Stocks alongside reports that Saudi Arabia are planning on further oil production cuts and exports next month; additionally, believing that SPR releases are a solution to the US’s Venezuela oil shortage problem. Follows sanctions announced on Monday which aim to stop the proceeds from PDVSA’s crude exports of around 500,00 BPD to the US. Gold (+0.1%) is trading in the middle of its USD 6/oz range, on a steady dollar ahead of today’s FOMC decision. Elsewhere, Vale’s CEO announced they will take up to 10% of the Co’s output offline to decommission 10 dams following Friday’s dam burst.

Looking at today’s calendar, today’s Fed meeting outcome will no doubt hog much of limelight while the data highlights in the US this afternoon include the January ADP employment change report (183k expected) and December pending home sales (+0.5% mom expected). In Europe this morning we’re kicking off with the December import price index reading in Germany followed by December consumer spending data in France, December money and credit aggregates data in the UK and then January confidence indicators for the Euro Area. Today is also the day that trade talks are due to resume between the US and China with Vice Premier Liu Ge meeting with US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in Washington. Finally, it’s a busy day for earnings with reports due from Microsoft, Facebook, Alibaba, Visa, AT&T, Novartis, Boeing and McDonald’s.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.7%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 181,000, prior 271,000
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -0.7%; YoY, est. -7.0%, prior -7.7%
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision
  • U.S. BEA Working With Census, OMB on Economic-Data Schedule

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Dublin where there will be lots of eyebrows raised this morning after the events in U.K. parliament last night. However if you think Brexit negotiations are currently in a deep freeze then spare a thought for those in the Midwest of the US today who will face a once in a generation polar vortex which will bring temperatures down to -53C (-64F). Chicago will be even colder than Antarctica and see lows of -27F, with a wind chill factor making that feel closer to -50F. Good luck to all our readers there. Rather worryingly Chicago police say people are being robbed at gunpoint of their coats and those hideously expensive Canada Goose jackets that were two a penny in Davos last week have been especially targeted. The good news is that if you’ve been desperate to pick up a ticket to Hamilton they are reselling at half-price for tonight in Chicago as no-one wants to brave the elements. So for those that don’t mind the cold there’s your opportunity. Don’t wear your Canada Goose jacket out though.

One area where there was a thawing out last night was that U.K. Parliament now have a mandate for a Brexit deal. The problem is that this mandate has already been ruled out by the EU. Nevertheless Brussels have been asking the U.K. what they want for the last two and a half years and finally we have an outline of what they want. Parliament now seems happy to vote for the withdrawal agreement as long as the Irish backstop is removed/amended in a satisfactory manner.

To recap in as brief a way as possible as everyone might be bored by now, the only amendments that passed were a non-binding one (Spelman) that voted against leaving with no-deal and one (Brady) that asked the government to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement to accommodate an alternative arrangement to the Irish backstop. So Mrs May will go to Brussels and try to reopen negotiations on an agreement that the EU have already said before and after last night’s votes that they won’t reopen. Whether diplomacy can work in the background remains to be seen.

All the reaction I’ve seen from the market overnight talks about it in terms of it being a unicorn-like mission with absolutely no chance of success. However stranger things have happened. Maybe I’m being naive but both the EU and the U.K. don’t want there to be a no-deal and both parties are categoric that there can’t be a hard border in Ireland. To me there is scope for negotiations on that basis. However I haven’t heard anyone that agrees with me yet. Indeed DB’s Oli Harvey downgraded Sterling to neutral overnight and overall thinks developments have on balance become more negative. His updated probabilities are; 1) May pivots to a softer Brexit stance via the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship: 15% (previously 40%), 2) Last-minute ratification on the existing deal in the face of no alternatives 50% (previously 30%), 3) Second referendum: 5% (previously 15%), 4) New election: 15% (previously 10%), 5) No deal Brexit: 15% (previously 5%). See the full report here . In market terms Sterling dropped as various soft or delayed Brexit motions failed to pass and closed -0.74% at $1.3066. Overnight in Asia the Pound has consolidated around those levels and as we go to print it’s at $1.3086.

Moving on, we’re now firmly into the business end of the week with the next event for markets to navigate being the first Fed meeting of 2019 tonight. With neither the consensus nor the market pricing in any chance of a hike, most observers will instead be watching to see if the current narrative is maintained. Our US economists expect the most meaningful alteration to the post-meeting statement to be to the forward guidance language. Indeed at the December meeting the statement noted that the “Committee judges that some further gradual increases” in rates would be consistent with the Fed’s dual mandate. Our team believe that this statement is now too strong given intermeeting developments and expect the language to be softened by noting that the Fed expect “further gradual adjustments” in policy will be consistent with the Fed’s objectives. As for Powell’s press conference, our colleagues expect a similar message to be reiterated with the unspoken takeaway likely to be that June is the earliest possible date for another rate increase. The balance sheet topic is likely to be a talking point although our team don’t expect any major announcements.

As you’ll see in the day ahead at the end, we’ve also got a bumper day for earnings scheduled, especially in the tech sector, while trade talks between the US and China also formally get underway again today. Yesterday, in an interview with Fox, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed that “everything is on the table” in response to a question about Trump potentially dropping all tariffs in return for a good deal. For what it’s worth yesterday our China Chief Economist Zhiwei Zhang published a short update in which he concluded that he expects the two governments to reach a partial trade deal by March 1st, with China making concessions to buy US goods, lower tariffs, and open part of the service sector. Zhiwei believes that the US may stop imposing more tariffs in exchange. That all said, he also expects the Huawei case to extend beyond March.

Back to markets, where despite Mnuchin’s comments, corporate earnings and the tech sector spoilt hopes of a bounce back for US equities with the NASDAQ (-0.81%) at the forefront of declines along with the NYSE FANG index (-2.09%) which plummeted for its fifth daily decline in the last seven sessions. After the bell, however, Apple beat earnings expectations and sparked a rally, with shares up +5.9% in post-market trading. This helped NASDAQ futures retrace most of their declines from yesterday, with front-month contracts up +0.66% overnight. Digging into the results, Apple beat on headline earnings, with EPS at $4.18 versus consensus $4.17, and also on revenue, at $84.3bn versus estimates for $83.9. Notably, revenue fell especially hard in China ($13.2bn from $17.9bn last year), as signaled in the company’s earlier guidance.

Prior to this the S&P 500 closed down -0.15% while the DOW (+0.21%) just about managed to stay onside thanks to some positive large-cap earnings. Better than expected results from 3M (+1.94%) and Pfizer (+3.16%) seemingly helped offset some of the post-Caterpillar global growth concerns however at the other end Allergan (-8.60%) and Harley-Davidson (-5.08%) succumbed to heavy falls after their respective results failed to convince the market. Anecdotally, companies’ guidance is mixed on the macro outlook, with Whirlpool CFO Peters saying “continued economic and trade uncertainty to temper overall demand” while Verizon CFO Ellis anticipates “no major impact at this point on the macro economy or even the shutdown”.

Earlier in Europe, the STOXX 600 gained +0.80% while treasuries and bunds traded close to flat. BTP yields rallied -3.1bps to a new 6-month low. The energy sector outperformed, gaining +0.32% in the US and +1.30% in Europe, as Brent crude oil prices rose +2.32% to mostly retrace Monday’s selloff. The move was driven by comments by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Al-Falih, who said that he expects to cut oil output further next month and to keep production “well below” the levels agreed by OPEC. New US sanctions on Venezuela’s national oil company also helped ease the supply outlook, while historically cold weather in the US increases demand for heating oil.

Markets in Asia are also trading slightly cautiously overnight with the Nikkei down -0.32% and bourses in China flat as markets await the start of trade talks. The Hang Seng (+0.27%) and Kospi (+0.27%) have however posted modest gains while EM FX is similarly mixed.

In other news, the latest sentiment indicator in the US took on added focus yesterday in light of uncertainty around government policy and recent financial market volatility. Indeed the January consumer confidence reading slumped even more than expected, to 120.2 (vs. 124.0 expected) from a downwardly revised 126.6 in December. The present situations index was broadly flat at 169.6 however the expectations component fell to 87.3 and the lowest since 2016 likely reflecting the government shutdown. There were lots of people on twitter suggesting that the ratio between the two suggests an imminent recession based on historical observations. However if the disparity mostly reflects the shutdown it could easily reverse and nullify the signal. The graph between the two does look worrying though. On the plus side the ratio of respondents describing jobs as “plentiful” versus respondents saying they are “hard to get” reached a new cyclical high, which points to further labour market strength.

Meanwhile the S&P CoreLogic house price index confirmed that prices rose +4.68% yoy in the 20 biggest cities in November and therefore slowing slightly from October. In Europe we only had the French consumer confidence print for January which surprised to the upside at 91 (vs. 88 expected and 86 in December). That marks a decent correction from the protest’s impacted December reading and is in stark contrast to the PMIs in France that we saw last week.

Looking at today’s calendar, this evening’s Fed meeting outcome will no doubt hog much of limelight while the data highlights in the US this afternoon include the January ADP employment change report (183k expected) and December pending home sales (+0.5% mom expected). In Europe this morning we’re kicking off with the December import price index reading in Germany followed by December consumer spending data in France, December money and credit aggregates data in the UK and then January confidence indicators for the Euro Area. Today is also the day that trade talks are due to resume between the US and China with Vice Premier Liu Ge meeting with US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in Washington. Finally, it’s a busy day for earnings with reports due from Microsoft, Facebook, Alibaba, Visa, AT&T, Novartis, Boeing and McDonald’s.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2RWBNOY Tyler Durden

Trump: Border Security Dealmakers Are “Wasting Their Time” If They Aren’t Considering A Wall

After putting the odds of a border security deal at “less than 50-50” during an interview with WSJ on Sunday, President Trump chimed in on twitter Wednesday morning to remind the bipartisan committee of 17 appropriations committee members – a mix of Senators and members of the House of Representatives – that if they are not considering a wall or physical barrier, they are “wasting their time.”

The warning, which comes on the second day of negotiations, follows Trump’s decision to approve a three-week stopgap funding bill to reopen the government until Feb. 15, at which point he will either usher in another shutdown or take steps to declare a national emergency that would allow him to use funds appropriated for the military to start construction on the wall.

These are the lawmakers tasked with negotiating the deal (courtesy of CNN).

CNN

And as if to nudge lawmakers, Trump quoted a story from Fox & Friends about three new caravans heading for the US border.

Earlier on Wednesday, Trump tweeted out a rebuttal to concerns raised by Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats on Tuesday during his annual testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, where he notably contradicted the administration’s narratives on ISIS and North Korea. Trump lauded the negotiations with the Taliban that he said might finally bring peace to Afghanistan “after 18 years of fighting” – a relief to the people of Afghanistan, who are surely tired of this “never ending war.”

The president added that “time will tell” whether NK makes good on its promises, but since taking office, Trump said the “horrendous and very bad” relationship with NK is now a “whole different story” thanks to his engagement.

&Trump is planning to attend a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – the second meeting between an American and North Korean leader since the Korean War – next month.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2DID9UJ Tyler Durden

Maduro “Open To Talks” As 20 Tons Of Gold Mysteriously Disappears From Venezeula’s Vaults

It’s probably just a coincidence.

One day after a Russian official warned that Venezuela would struggle to meet its financial obligations to Moscow under a $3.15 billion debt-rescheduling deal, Bloomberg is reporting that a mysterious Russian Boeing 777 had landed in Caracas on Tuesday and ferried away 20 tonnes of gold – equivalent to roughly 20% of the country’s holdings of the shiny metal – to an unknown location with little explanation. The story cited a “bombshell tweet” sent by Venezuelan lawmaker Jose Guerra, a “former central bank economist who remains in touch with old colleagues there”, and the “welter of social media speculation” that followed (though Guerra provided no evidence).

To be sure, many outlandish claims have been made in the week since opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself the legitimate democratically-elected leader of what was once Latin America’s wealthiest nation – creating the biggest threat to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s rule since the socialist dictator took office in 2013.

Moving the 20 tonnes of gold bars, worth some $840 million, occurred shortly after the UK denied the Maduro regime’s request to retrieve some $1.2 billion in gold being kept in the vaults of the Bank of England.

And with the country owing billions of dollars to Russia and China (not to mention the Venezuela’s long-suffering bondholders), the story’s implication is clear: was this collateral paid to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Monday, a plane belonging to Nordwind Airlines, a popular Russian charter operator based in Moscow, landed at the international airport near Caracas, according to flight tracking website FlightRadar24. A Nordwind spokesman declined to comment Wednesday on the purpose of the flight.

Finance Minister Simon Zerpa declined to comment on the nation’s gold and also said there was no Russian plane at Simon Bolivar International Airport.

“I’m going to start bringing Russian and Turkish airplanes every week so everybody gets scared,” he said.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has no information about the charter jet, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a message Wednesday. There are no plans to evacuate Russians from Venezuela, she said.

According to BBG, Venezuela has been trying for years to increase its gold reserves via mining. The state gold processor Minerven melts ore into gold bars which are transported by the military (which controls the mining) to the central bank.

The US announced sanctions against the Maduro regime earlier this week, including restrictions on buying the country’s oil, to try and starve his regime of money, while opening access to Venezuelan assets frozen in the US to Guaido to try and help him cement his control of the country.

By Wednesday morning, the regime was feeling pressure to capitulate and begin negotiations, with Maduro reportedly saying he’d be “open to talks” with the opposition, though, as the New York Times noted, ” it is “not clear if the comments were a genuine offer for negotiations with the opposition or a bid to buy time for his embattled government.”

“I am ready to sit down at the negotiating table with the opposition so that we could talk about what benefits Venezuela,” Mr. Maduro said.

Maduro listed several potential mediators for the talks, including Mexico, Uruguay, Bolivia, Russia, the Vatican and other European governments that had encouraged a dialogue. The purported capitulation comes after Maduro had threatened to use the country’s Supreme Court to impose a travel ban on Guaido in what appeared to be an attempt to intimidate him.

President Trump welcomed Maduro’s announcement, while reiterating a warning to US citizens not to travel to Venezuela.

Still, he has rejected international calls for new elections, which could soon lead to several Western European nations joining the ranks of countries recognizing Guaido as the country’s legitimate ruler.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2CW7kGB Tyler Durden

Crossing Borders With Gold And Silver Coins

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

It’s well-known that you have to make a declaration if you physically transport $10,000 or more in cash or monetary instruments in or out of the US, or almost any other country; governments collude on these things, often informally.

Gold has always been in something of a twilight zone in that regard. It’s no longer officially considered money. So it’s usually regarded as just a commodity, like copper, lead, or zinc, for these purposes. The one-ounce Canadian Maple Leaf and US Eagle both say they’re worth $50 of currency.

But I’ve had some disturbing experiences over the past couple of years crossing borders with coins. Of course, crossing any national border is potentially disturbing at any time. You might find yourself interrogated, strip searched, or detained for any reason or no reason. But I suspect what happened to me crossing a few borders in recent times could be a straw in the wind.

I’ve gradually accumulated about a dozen one-ounce silver rounds in my briefcase, some souvenirs issued by mining companies, plus others from Canada, Australia, China, and the US. But when I left Chile not long ago, the person monitoring the X-ray machine stopped me and insisted I take them out and show them to her. This had never happened before, but I wrote it off to chance. Then, when I was leaving Argentina a few weeks later, the same thing happened. What was really unusual was that the inspector looked at them, took them back to his supervisor, and then asked if I had any gold coins. I didn’t, he smiled, and I went on.

What really got my attention was a few weeks later when I was leaving Mauritania, one of the world’s more backward countries. Here, I was also questioned about the silver coins. A supervisor was again called over and asked me whether I had any gold coins. Clearly, something was up.

I haven’t seen any official statements about the movement of gold coins, but it seems probable that governments are spreading word to their minions. After all, $10,000 in $100 bills is a stack about an inch high; it’s hard to hide, and clearly a lot of money. But even at currently depressed prices, $10,000 is only nine Maple Leafs, a much smaller volume. Additionally, the coins are immune to currency-sniffing dogs, are much less likely to be counterfeit, and don’t have serial numbers. And if they’re set aside for a few years, they won’t be damaged by water, fire, insects, currency inflation, or the complete replacement of a currency. Gold coins are in many ways an excellent way to subvert capital controls. And I think they’ll become much more popular in that role.

That’s because, all over the world, paper cash is disappearing. People are moving away from paper cash. That’s partially because there are fewer and fewer bank branches where you can cash a check, and ATM machines are costly to use. And partially because everybody has a cell phone and they’re starting to use them for even trivial purchases, like a cup of coffee. Governments are encouraging this because if all purchases, sales, and payments are made electronically, they’ll know exactly what you’re doing with your money.

From their point of view, the elimination of cash will have several major benefits: It decreases the opportunity for tax evasion, it decreases the possibilities of “money laundering,” it eliminates the expense of printing currency, it obviates counterfeiting, and it gives the state instant access to all of any individual’s cash. From an individual’s point of view, however, the safety and freedom offered by a stack of paper cash will disappear.

Much of the safety and freedom offered by foreign banks and brokerage accounts has already disappeared. Few people seem aware of the fact that not so long ago, there was no limit to the amount of cash you could transfer in or out of the US without reporting. Or that you didn’t have to report the existence of offshore bank or brokerage accounts (although you did have to report taxable income from them).

That changed in 1970, first with the passage of USC 3156, and then the perversely-named Bank Secrecy Act. The 1986 Tax Reform Act made it highly inconvenient, and largely uneconomic, to invest in passive foreign investment companies (PFICs). In 2010, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) required every foreign financial institution in the world to report info on US persons to the US government. The enormous regulatory burdens and potential penalties it imposes now make it very hard to find a foreign institution that will even open an account for an American.

These are all de facto capital controls. In the US, banks are starting to notify customers that they’re not responsible for the storage of cash, or gold, in their safe deposit boxes. When I was in New Zealand a while back, I was surprised to see that the suburban branch of a major bank was closing down its substantial safe deposit box department.

When I inquired why, the manager only knew that it was a new policy and if I wanted a box, I’d have to go to the main branch. This seems to be another worldwide trend. If there isn’t a safe place to store paper cash or gold, then people will be less likely to possess them.

But it’s getting worse. In recent times, a bill was passed that allows the US to deny issuance, or cancel, the passport of anyone who is simply accused of owing $50,000 or more in taxes. After all, it clearly states on your passport that it’s government property and it must be turned in on request. People are actually the most valuable form of capital. Emigration has always been nearly impossible from authoritarian regimes.

So what’s next? I expect, as the subtle war on both cash and the transfer of capital across borders gains momentum, that gold coins are going to become the next focus of attention. So I suggest you act now to beat the last minute rush.

Have a meaningful percentage of your net worth in gold coins.

Have a significant number of those coins stored outside the country of your citizenship.

Concentrate your future purchases in small coins that are indistinguishable from loose change. Things like British sovereigns (.23 oz of gold) or their continental equivalents (French, Swiss, German, Danish, Russian, etc., pieces of generally .18 oz of gold). Not only is gold cheap now, but all of these are currently at only a few percent above melt. Happily, they have collectible value, and they resemble common pocket change to an X-ray machine.

Also, do this: Put a bunch of silver Eagles in your brief case the next time you travel internationally and let me know if your experience resembles my own.

*  *  *

Clearly, there are many strange things afoot in the world. Distortions of markets, distortions of culture. It’s wise to wonder what’s going to happen, and to take advantage of growth while also being prepared for crisis. How will you protect yourself in the next crisis? See our PDF guide that will show you exactly how. Click here to download it now.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Wvjb7b Tyler Durden

Project Fear Goes To ’11’: Brexit Could Lead To Thousands Of Deaths, Mass Hunger

If you listen to the government tell it, a post-“hard” Brexit Britain will inevitably resemble the post-apocalyptic Australia from “Mad Max”: A post-apocalyptic hellscape where Britons will be forced to battle it out “Thunderdome”-style for access to scare essentials like food, medicine and “guzzoline”.

Sound outlandish? Well, that’s because it probably is. The notion that reverting to WTO rules on trade would cause anything beyond a transient disruption to supply chains is ridiculous on its face. Most of this blatant fearmongering can be attributed to a very effective propaganda campaign we’ve dubbed “Project Fear”. In recent weeks, May’s government has staged traffic jams near would-be border checkpoints and warned that the hit to economic growth will linger for years, if not decades.

Brexit

Yet, out of naivety or shrewdness, Brexiteer MPs have largely ignored these warnings and continued to oppose May’s deal, despite her insistence that it is Britain’s “best and only” option. So far, the EU has refused to reopen negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement, prompting May’s latest attempt to transform a wave of resistance into a surmountable obstacle by winning support for an amendment that she could then pitch to the EU27 as the only workable arrangement. But like her other plans, this too appears to be mired in conflict.

Fearful of the shortages that could lie just around the corner, both warehouses and UK citizens have begun hoarding food, medicine and other supplies. Perhaps realizing that they have pushed the country to the brink of hysteria, PM May’s government on Monday tried to walk back some of the more outrageous claims, assuring citizens that there will be enough to eat in the event of a hard Brexit, though prices on fresh foods could see a temporary spike. The walk back followed another warning from supermarket chains about possible supply shortages if ‘no deal’ goes through.

“The U.K. has a high level of food security based on a wide range of sources, including strong domestic production and imports from other countries,” James Slack told reporters in London on Monday afternoon. “This will continue to be the case whether we leave the EU with our without a deal.”

On the face of it, the statement – in response to a warning from food retailers – is uncontroversial. But the government of the world’s fifth-largest economy having to reassure its citizens they’ll have food is a mark of the atmosphere pervading the nation.

Alas, this wasn’t the only example of fearmongering to circulate in the press so far this week. A study by several UK universities concluded that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit could lead to “thousands more deaths” by 2030, according to Bloomberg. The reason? Get this – rising fruit and vegetable prices, which could lead to a spike in unhealthy eating.

Any deal under which the UK exits the EU will push up prices, cutting the amount of fresh produce people buy, it said.

A no-deal Brexit would have the worst impact, leading to more than 12,000 extra deaths between 2021 and 2030.

The new study, from Imperial College London and the University of Liverpool, used data from the World Health Organization and HM Revenue and Customs to model the impact of Brexit on health.

The models included a free-trading agreement with the EU and third-party countries; a free-trading agreement with the EU; and a no-deal Brexit without a new trade agreement.

All scenarios assumed an increase in trade tariffs and transaction costs – extra costs that the UK will be required to pay on imported goods.

And as if the level of hysteria wasn’t already at a fever pitch, the Associated Press reported that Jews living in the UK are so concerned about Brexit that they’re literally applying for German citizenship, waging that a return to the land where their ancestors were slaughtered would be a solid contingency plan in the event of ‘no deal’.

The German Embassy in London says it has received more than 3,380 citizenship applications since the Brexit referendum in June 2016 under article 116 of the German Constitution, which allows the descendants of people persecuted by the Nazis to regain the citizenship that was removed between 1933 and 1945.

In comparison, only around 20 such requests were made annually in the years before Brexit.

Through it all, May remains stuck between a rock and a hard place. MPs can’t agree on an alternative to her deal, making it impossible for her to try and sell an ‘alternative arrangement’ to the EU, while the EU remains publicly opposed to reopening the Withdrawal Agreement.

That should set everybody’s mind at ease.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2sXSt9G Tyler Durden

Trump Warns Europeans Not To Defy US Sanctions Against Iran

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

…threatens stiff fines and penalties for circumventing sanctions

With reports that the European Union is close to establishing its trade vehicle for facilitating trade with Iran, the Trump Administration has issued a statement warning them not to defy the US sanctions, in any way.

“The choice is whether to do business with Iran or the United States,” Sen. Tom Cotton (Republican-Arkansas), told the AP.

“I hope our European allies choose wisely.”

The US reimposed sanctions on Iran after withdrawing from the P5+1 nuclear deal. EU nations did not withdraw from the deal, and companies are still allowed to trade with Iran. This, however, is difficult because US sanctions are scaring most banks away.

The EU solution is a clearing house for the trades, which allow companies to pay for Iranian goods, and Iran to pay EU companies for services, without any money crossing borders, cutting the banks out of it.

Long-term, the US worries that the alternative money payment system could become successful enough to compete with the international bank transfer system known as SWIFT. The fear is that it could eventually supplant SWIFT as the leading global institution for financial institutions to send and receive information about banking transactions.

Secondly, the US is concerned that other countries might try to route transactions through the European system just to circumvent US sanctions, the adviser said.

Thirdly, while the Europeans have signaled that the alternative money transfer system would be used only for humanitarian transactions, the US is suspicious that it could be used for non-humanitarian transactions to evade US sanctions, the adviser said.

US officials are threatening stiff fines and penalties if the plan goes forward. The EU, however, is betting that the US cannot afford to simply cut off Europe entirely over Iran.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Tj8bYE Tyler Durden

Toxic Masculinity Strikes In Europe – German Man Sues Over “Woman-Only” Parking Spots

In a shocking display of toxic masculinity – daring to call out ‘unequal’ treatment of sexes (however many of them there are today) – a German town’s effort to prevent sexual violence has seen it hauled to court by a man who claims its ‘woman-only’ parking spaces are discriminatory. 

RT reports that Dominik Bayer, 25, from North Rhine-Westphalia, appeared at a hearing at the Administrative Court in Munich, Bavaria, on Wednesday saying:

“I feel discriminated against as a man.”

Bayer argued that he is fighting for “equal rights for men and women” because the signs were not only discriminatory against men, they were also offensive to women by implying they “are weaker,” reports Spiegel.

Legal representatives for the town argued that the signs are needed for women’s safety as the car park is near a retirement home where many women work.

“We did it purely for security reasons, because it’s statistically proven that women are more likely to be victims of [sexually] violent crime than men,” said Hans Bittl, head of the legal department in Eichstätt.

But, Bayer countered that men can also be victims of violent crimes:

“The city does not come to mind that even men can become victims of violence… There are also small and weaker men.”

A compromise was found in the end that meant the town officials were ordered to change the wording of the signs to make it clear that the reservation is only a recommendation, and not a legal rule. 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2FX3bWO Tyler Durden

Merkel & Macron Apply Sticking Plaster On Fracturing Europe

Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

When German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a new Franco-German Treaty last week in the historic city of Aachen it had pomp and gravitas as background setting.

But in the foreground, figuratively speaking, the two leaders are beset by jarring political problems in both their respective countries, as well as across the entire European Union and on the international level.

If the location of the 9th century Charlesmagne empire centered on German border city of Aachen was meant to inspire unity, it could equally also inspire doom. All empires are destined to fall. Why should the supranational EU not also succumb to demise?

The Franco-German accord signed by Macron and Merkel appeared to be more a PR gesture than a substantive development.

For a start, there already exists an accord between the two countries. The Elysée Treaty signed in 1963 was signed by Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer and is viewed as an historic postwar reconciliation between the two major European powers which helped paved the way for the modern European Union.

Some observers questioned the need for Macron and Merkel to sign a new treaty. “It was like an old couple renewing their marriage vows,” commented historian Marion Gaillard to France 24.

The treaty last week aims to bring closer cooperation between Germany and France in the fields of foreign policy, defense, security, economic policy, and to reinforce the wider EU project. Importantly, another aim is to strengthen “the ability of Europe to act independently”.

The day after signing, Angela Merkel addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos, where she said the new Franco-German pact was a real step towards the creation of a European army.

Striving to give Europe independence in foreign policy and defense is obviously a response to the growing tensions between the United States and the EU, tensions that have rudely emerged since Donald Trump became president.

Trump’s berating of European governments, in particular Germany’s, over trade, foreign policy and NATO military spending has inevitably pushed the two main EU powers – Berlin and Paris – to close ranks and perhaps to try to salvage some respect for their images as not being mere vassals of Washington.

However, the outlook is not auspicious. European governments continue to slavishly follow the line from Washington on adopting hostile sanctions against Russia. Also last week, it was shameful how the EU meekly went along with Washington’s blatant coup attempt in Venezuela. So much for being independent!

Merkel and Macron also had their eyes on mounting pressures from within the European bloc.

The two leaders lamented the rise of “populism and nationalism” as negative forces undermining and fracturing the 28-member EU project. Thus by signing the accord last week, the German and French leaders were aiming to “inspire unity” and “cohesion”.

Again, their effort seems more pomp and PR than anything of substantive progress.

While Macron poured tea for Merkel and shared niceties in Aachen, both their countries are reeling from social unrest over economic grievances and uncontrolled immigration. Both leaders have seriously lost political authority. They are weakened figures in the eyes of their respective public, unlike the 1963 signatories De Gaulle and Adenauer who at the time were revered as statesmen.

France’s Macron is particularly despised by growing numbers of his citizens. The Yellow Vest protests, which have been gripping France for nearly three months, are demanding his resignation, mocking Macron as “president of the very rich”.

Merkel is also a shadow of the former “Iron Chancellor” she once was seen as. In her final term of office, she is due to step down with her reputation sullied by growing economic grievances among Germans and the rise of the anti-immigration and Eurosceptic party, Alternative for Germany. Merkel’s former “open door” policy on immigration has rebounded to damage the electoral strength of her center-right Christian Democrat party.

The signing of the Franco-German accord last week is seen as a hollow attempt by both leaders to give themselves an aura of gravitas in the face of growing criticism and rancor among voters. If anything, the exercise in Aachen will further incite popular contempt.

As for Macron and Merkel “inspiring unity” for the rest of Europe: their pomp and ceremony collides with the reality of visceral anger across the EU over what many citizens see as an aloof, unresponsive European establishment whose neoliberal capitalist policies relentlessly rack up social misery.

Macron deprecates so-called “populism” as a nasty scourge on a presumed pristine Europe. He has even referred to populist politics as a form of “leprosy” corroding the body politic of the EU. His snide comments were seen as an attack on the governing parties of Italy and Hungary.

Italy’s deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini has become a thorn in Macron’s side. Salvini lambasted the French leader for “all talk and no action”, adding that he hoped French voters will soon get rid of “terrible Macron”.

Italy’s second deputy prime minister Luigi Di Maio also gave a verbal kicking to French pretensions last week. He slammed France for “exploiting Africa” through its economic policies towards former colonies, and in that way, claimed Di Maio, French governments are fueling migration to Europe.

Considering that Italy is one of the founding members of the EU – along with France and Germany – the increasingly bitter rhetoric demonstrates just how fractured the bloc has become.

It must be deeply alarming to Europhiles like Macron and Merkel that so many parties across the EU have endorsed Britain’s decision for Brexit, despite the mess that the Brits have made of that departure.

What Macron and Merkel, and other pro-EU establishment politicians, don’t seem to understand is that “populism” is simply a democratic revolt against the orthodoxy of running economies to satisfy big banks and big business, while ordinary people are expected to endure poverty, low wages, unemployment, rising living costs, unaffordable housing, and deteriorating public services.

In other words, the likes of Macron and Merkel have created their own challenges, opposition, and failures from pursuing bankrupt capitalist policies.

At the Davos conference of business elites last week, Italian premier Giuseppe Conte castigated EU economic policies for “sowing despair and discontent across Europe”. He added: “We are radical because we want to bring the power back to the people.”

The Franco-German Treaty signed last week is a useless sticking plaster for covering up a fracturing Europe. What is required is to rebuild Europe with an economic, political system that is genuinely democratic in addressing the needs of ordinary people. And to create a Europe that is truly independent from Washington’s warmongering and Cold War obsession towards Russia.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2SdQUms Tyler Durden

As Midwest Freezes, Aussie Heatwave Reaches Record Highs

While Midwest America hunkers down for the coldest temperatures in a generation, temperature records have also tumbled across South Australia, with the city of Adelaide experiencing its hottest day on record.

Life-threatening cold is sweeping across Chicago…

As Australians face animal culls, mass fish deaths across the nation,  roads melting, and bats falling from trees…

Adelaide hit 46.6C, the hottest temperature recording in any Australian state capital city since records began 80 years ago, sending homelessness shelters into a “code red”, and sparking fears of another mass fish death in the Menindee Lakes in the neighbouring state of New South Wales.

In central and western Australia, local authorities were forced to carry out an emergency animal cull, shooting 2,500 camels – and potentially a further hundred feral horses – who were dying of thirst.

In Port Augusta, 300km north-west, an all-time record was also set, as the city hit 49.5C.

So, which is it? Global warming or global cooling?

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2BaAdhQ Tyler Durden

America’s Shameful War

Authored by Eric Margolis,

An ancient Hindu prayer says, ‘Lord Shiva, save us from the claw of the tiger, the fang of the cobra, and the vengeance of the Afghan.’

The United States, champion of freedom and self-determination, is now in its 18th year of colonial war in Afghanistan. This miserable, stalemated conflict is America’s longest and most shameful war. So far it has cost over $1 trillion and killed no one knows how many Afghans.

This conflict began in 2001 on a lie: namely that Afghanistan was somehow responsible for the 9/11 attacks on the US. These attacks were planned in Europe and the US, not Afghanistan, and apparently conducted (official version) by anti-American Saudi extremists. This writer remains unconvinced by the official versions.

We still don’t know if Osama bin Laden instigated the attacks. He was murdered rather than brought to trial. Dead men tell no tales. However, Mullah Omar, leader of Afghanistan’s Taliban movement, told my late friend journalist Arnaud de Borchgrave that bin Laden was not involved in 9/11. Who benefited? Certainly not the Afghans. They have been at war for the past 40 years.

As I wrote in my first book, ‘War at the Top of the World,’ Afghanistan’s Pashtun tribal majority were fierce fighters and were incredibly brave. Their Taliban movement was a tribal-nationalist-Islamist force devoted to fighting communism, drug dealing and foreign influence. Taliban stamped out the Afghan opium trade and had just about crushed the drug-dealing Russian-backed Tajik northern alliance – until the US invaded in 2001. The Afghan drug lords quickly became US allies and remain so today.

Taliban was not a ‘terrorist movement,’ as western war propaganda falsely claimed. Twenty years earlier their fathers were hailed ‘freedom fighters’ by President Ronald Reagan when they were fighting Soviet occupation. Taliban’s Pashtun warriors wanted all foreigners out of their nation and the right to run their own affairs according to Islamic principles.

The US has savaged Afghanistan, one of the world’s poorest countries. US B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are razing tribal villages, predator killer drones attack most road movement, US-paid Afghan puppet forces, many former Communists, routinely torture and murder. All this while the US-installed yes-man regime in Kabul does nothing to halt massive drug dealing and human rights abuses.

In fact, dealing in opium and morphine is the primary business of Afghanistan. This cash crop could not be exported to Pakistan, India, Iran and Russia without the connivance of the Kabul regime and its US military protectors. When the full truth about the war is finally written, the US will be in the deepest shame over involvement in the drug trade.

Washington, which has done as much as the former Soviet invaders to ravage Afghanistan, has no clear idea what to do next. President Trump announced withdrawal of some of the 14,000 US troops (and large numbers of mercenaries) from Afghanistan. But then the pro-war neocons at State and the Pentagon sought to veto the president’s statement. Meanwhile, desultory talks are droning on in Doha, Qatar, between the US and Taliban, led by the US ‘special envoy’ (read proconsul) Zalmay Khalilzad, a neocon who played an important role in promoting the invasion of Iraq.

Why is the US still at war in Afghanistan after 18 years?

First, because the politicians and generals involved won’t accept responsibility for a defeat and its huge cost. There is nothing more wasteful than a lost war.

Second, because imperial-minded circles want to keep bases in Afghanistan to menace China, Iran and Pakistan. There are huge profits to be made from this endless war with its $400 per gallon gasoline trucked in from Karachi and 24-hour on call air support. Plus the bases and fleet that support the war and promotion for the senior officers involved.

To keep this useless war against lightly armed Pashtun tribesmen going, the US must massively bribe Pakistan to maintain the military’s supply routes into that isolated nation.

The absurd waste of US money in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been fully documented by the US government’s audit agencies.

President Trump is right to talk about ending this ignoble conflict. But the neocon fifth column he has foolishly helped install keeps thwarting his aspirations.

Trump should order the fighting ended and all US troops out of Afghanistan within 90 days. End US involvement in the drug trade. Tell India to butt out of Afghanistan. That would be statesmanship. Afghanistan must be allowed to return to its former obscurity.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2B8DrCQ Tyler Durden