Category: zerohedge

It was all going according to plan. POMO lifted the S&P 500 instantly 7 points at 1015ET back to unchanged and the mainstream media could discuss the fact that stocks are “off the lows.” Then (admittedly non-voting member) uber-dove Dennis Lockhart hit the wires with some oddly hawkish commentary:

• *LOCKHART SAYS TAPERING ‘COULD VERY WELL TAKE PLACE’ NEXT MONTH
• *LOCKHART SAYS QE NOT MEANT TO BE ‘PERMANENT FIXTURE’ OF POLICY

Which sent stocks to the lows of the day. We are sure, of course, that these remarks will be walked back by the next Fed speaker but for now, it is clear the market remains entirely headline (and Fed) driven.

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8nVc5qkKAXw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

One of the underreported stories from last week was the implicit announcement by the official statistical agency of the European Union – Eurostat – that Spanish budget (and who knows what other) data is now just one big lie. Last Tuesday Bloomberg reported: “European Union officials made an extraordinary visit to Spain in September that signals escalating concern about the reliability of the country’s budget data. EU statisticians ordered a so-called ad-hoc visit, a procedure reserved for urgent issues, to assess whether regional officials are complying with recommendations after failing to report all the unpaid bills they had accumulated in 2011, Tim Allen, a Luxembourg-based press officer for the statistics agency Eurostat, said in an e-mail. Eurostat raised concerns about Spanish data in April following at least two “upstream dialog visits,” the second of four levels of checks the agency has on member states’ statistical reporting.”

The report continues:

September’s visit signaled a shift in gear to the second-most serious intervention. Ad-hoc visits are triggered by urgent issues regarding the quality or the methods used to produce the data, which only can be resolved with a face-to-face meeting, according to the agency Web site.

 

Local and regional administrations in Spain need to make “substantial improvements to public accounting and statistical reporting,” the agency said in its April 30 report. “Eurostat notes the lack of initiative and preparedness to follow up the recommendations.”

The damning report by the Eurostat can be found at the following link. Or rather could because as of moments ago one is greeted with the following 404 screen:

What happened? Something that would make Goebbels giddy with pride.

Eurostat, BBG reports again, the European Union’s statistics agency, withdrew a report criticizing Spain’s processes for reporting budget data after consultations with the country’s government, Eurostat spokesman Tim Allen says by e- mail.

“Further exchanges with the Spanish authorities have shown that a few statements in the report were too general,” Allen says. “The report has been temporarily withdrawn for amendment.”

Too general as in not “everything” is made up, just this, this and this? Laughable.

But at least we just got yet another glimpse of how that sinking economic titanic, the Eurozone, deals with the truth: by withdrawing it for amendments. Because one can’t have something, anything, casting doubt on the Spanish “miracle recovery” – after all, the last thing the hedge fund scramble into Spain needs is even the faintest glimpse of not only how bad it is, but that when one strips away the endless lies, it is just getting worse.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/skCrhmL9GPA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Following the DoJ’s ‘surprising’ August decision to block the $11bn merger of American and US Airways (after approving other airline mergers in the recent past), it would appear the parties have reached a settlement:

• *U.S. FILES PROPOSED SETTLEMENT IN AMR CASE IN FEDERAL COURT
• *DOJ REQUIRES US AIRWAYS, AMERICAN AIRLINES TO DIVEST FACILITIES
• *AIRPORT SLOTS TO BE SOLD UNDER PROCESS APPROVED BY U.S.

Some of the initial details (below) include divesting slots at Laguardia and Reagan National. AMR is trading up over 25%…

 

 

Via Reuters:

• SETTLEMENT SAYS LAGUARDIA DIVESTMENTS INCLUDE 34 SLOTS, CONSISTING OF 24 HELD BY AMR OR US AIRWAYS, AND 10 LEASED BY AMR TO SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO
• SETTLEMENT SAYS REAGAN NATIONAL DIVESTMENTS INCLUDE 104 SLOTS HELD BY US AIRWAYS OR AMR, INCLUDING 16 LEASED BY AMR TO JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ljl8EXZB_j0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

We missed you yesterday POMO, welcome back…

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/BsKO7f7cK6E/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Whether or not one believes the Fed will taper (then almost instantly un-taper based on the market’s reaction) or not in the coming months, Bernanke’s “tease” in the early summer this year should give most pause for thought as to just how dependent ‘everything’ is on the Fed’s money printing. As the following chart from Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough shows, things changed when big Ben dropped the hint that the punchbowl will not be here forever. There is one region, however, that for now has improved its outlook for 2014 GDP growth since the taper-tease…

 

 

The largest decline occurred in Latin America, where the 2014 GDP growth consensus diminished to 3.21 percent from 3.99 percent on Jan. 1. and EMEA (the most dependent on abundant, cheap foreign capital to fuel their economic growth). Western Europe, which experienced the largest improvement, is forecasted to grow 1.39 percent in 2014, compared to 1.33 percent at the start of the year. Global growth is anticipated to total 2.85 percent in 2014.

The U.S. 2014 growth forecast has fallen modestly to 2.6 percent from 2.8 percent at the start of the year.

Though  U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to accelerate to 3.0 percent quarter-on-quarter SAAR by the fourth quarter of next year.

 

Hope – it’s always just around the corner…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fqAAS8mCTpg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Whether or not one believes the Fed will taper (then almost instantly un-taper based on the market’s reaction) or not in the coming months, Bernanke’s “tease” in the early summer this year should give most pause for thought as to just how dependent ‘everything’ is on the Fed’s money printing. As the following chart from Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough shows, things changed when big Ben dropped the hint that the punchbowl will not be here forever. There is one region, however, that for now has improved its outlook for 2014 GDP growth since the taper-tease…

 

 

The largest decline occurred in Latin America, where the 2014 GDP growth consensus diminished to 3.21 percent from 3.99 percent on Jan. 1. and EMEA (the most dependent on abundant, cheap foreign capital to fuel their economic growth). Western Europe, which experienced the largest improvement, is forecasted to grow 1.39 percent in 2014, compared to 1.33 percent at the start of the year. Global growth is anticipated to total 2.85 percent in 2014.

The U.S. 2014 growth forecast has fallen modestly to 2.6 percent from 2.8 percent at the start of the year.

Though  U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to accelerate to 3.0 percent quarter-on-quarter SAAR by the fourth quarter of next year.

 

Hope – it’s always just around the corner…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fqAAS8mCTpg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,281.00, EUR 956.90 and GBP 807.03 per ounce.   
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,283.75, EUR 957.81 and GBP 801.54 per ounce.

Gold fell $3.90 or 0.3% yesterday, closing at $1,283.50/oz. Silver slipped $0.09 or 0.42% closing at $21.36. Platinum inched down $9.51 or 0.7% to $1,428.99/oz, while palladium fell $4.47 or 0.6% to $751.50/oz.

Gold dipped again in London on fears that a stronger U.S. economy will entice the U.S. Fed to taper its stimulus program and on positive economic data from China. Silver bullion slid to its lowest in four weeks, while gold is hovering at three week lows. In South Africa, the National Union of Mineworkers at Northam Platinum Ltd. continue their strike  that started on November 4th.

Gold in British Pounds, 10 Year – (Bloomberg)

SIPPs or Self-Invested Personal Pensions were launched by the UK government in 2006 in order to enable UK citizens to gain more control over their pension investment portfolio. The UK government also launched the Small Self-Administered Scheme known as a SSAS, an occupational pension scheme which is designed for up to 12 members.

From the perspective of the gold bullion industry this was welcome news, as the newly launched SIPP and SSAS permitted individuals or groups to invest in a range of approved types of gold bullion as part of their pension provision. To protect SIPPs and SSASs from inferior product, all gold must come in the form of ‘good delivery bars’ as per the London Bullion Market Association who maintains a list of approved bar manufactures such as the Perth Mint of Western Australia.

Gold bullion and pensions are a powerful combination. Pensions are extremely tax efficient investment structures that have been ignored by the general public for too long despite being very easy to set up. Gold is a form of financial insurance and essential diversification that empowers investors to hedge and therefore reduce the long term risks involved in all investment strategies.

Contributions into SIPPs and SSASs qualify for income tax relief up to the highest rate. Important to note that once invested in your SIPP or SSAS, all investments grow capital gains tax free and there is no further liability to income tax.

In times gone by it was common to stay in the one job with the same company for one’s entire working career. Today’s working environment is dramatically different and it is not uncommon for professionals to have more than one pension scheme which reflects their career to date; having worked in a variety of different positions with different companies, all who have different pension schemes.

The SIPP affords you the opportunity to consolidate your pension schemes into one scheme. As we have long advocated here at GoldCore, when taking advice on your financial affairs, particularly your pension, seek the advice of a fee based financial advisor.

Click here for our guide to Putting Gold In Your Pension Plan in the UK.

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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/5Epi9ZV6pr0/story01.htm GoldCore

It’s official – goodbye Gary Gensler, we hardly knew you… as a commodities regulator that is, although Bart Chilton (who is finally also stepping down due to being too burdened by lack of funding to actually do anything) was kind enough to provide much needed perspective on how the CFTC truly works. In place of the former Goldmanite, today Obama will announce that going forward America’s top derivative regulator and CFTC head will be Timothy Massad, the Treasury Department official responsible for overseeing the U.S. rescue of banks and automakers after the credit crisis.

Who is Timothy Massad? Bloomberg has the details:

A former partner at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP in New York, Massad was a legal adviser to a congressional panel that oversaw the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which loaned billions of dollars in banks and auto companies to help stabilize the economy during the 2008 crisis. The program, which he then was confirmed to manage at Treasury, spurred a political backlash that drove congressional supporters from office in the 2010 election and fed criticism of Wall Street.

 

“Nobody ever wants to see TARP repeated. But the fact is, TARP is a program that did its job,” Massad said Sept. 30 at the Brookings Institution. “It has worked faster, better, and cheaper than most people ever thought possible.”

 

Massad would take over an agency that has put into place more than 60 rules mandated by Dodd-Frank to help reduce risk and increase transparency in the swaps market after largely unregulated trades helped fuel the crisis. The rules have yet to all take effect as the agency battles budget challenges as a result of failed efforts to increase funding from Congress.

 

The commission, which is designed to have five members, may instead have only one Democrat and one Republican early next year if Obama and the Senate cannot overcome political hurdles to confirm new commissioners.

So the man who was responsible for bailing out the banks at any cost, will now make sure these same banks don’t do anything bad again. And he will also, somehow, “supervise” America’s $234 trillion in derivatives and make sure nothing bad ever happens there too?

Somehow, we are a little skeptical. Sure enough: “The party-line split on the commission would probably delay votes on contentious Dodd-Frank regulations.” In other words more of the same “nothing must change” hard line stance the CFTC has so sternly pursued since the crisis, and before.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/6bv-ltnQ76U/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It’s official – goodbye Gary Gensler, we hardly knew you… as a commodities regulator that is, although Bart Chilton (who is finally also stepping down due to being too burdened by lack of funding to actually do anything) was kind enough to provide much needed perspective on how the CFTC truly works. In place of the former Goldmanite, today Obama will announce that going forward America’s top derivative regulator and CFTC head will be Timothy Massad, the Treasury Department official responsible for overseeing the U.S. rescue of banks and automakers after the credit crisis.

Who is Timothy Massad? Bloomberg has the details:

A former partner at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP in New York, Massad was a legal adviser to a congressional panel that oversaw the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which loaned billions of dollars in banks and auto companies to help stabilize the economy during the 2008 crisis. The program, which he then was confirmed to manage at Treasury, spurred a political backlash that drove congressional supporters from office in the 2010 election and fed criticism of Wall Street.

 

“Nobody ever wants to see TARP repeated. But the fact is, TARP is a program that did its job,” Massad said Sept. 30 at the Brookings Institution. “It has worked faster, better, and cheaper than most people ever thought possible.”

 

Massad would take over an agency that has put into place more than 60 rules mandated by Dodd-Frank to help reduce risk and increase transparency in the swaps market after largely unregulated trades helped fuel the crisis. The rules have yet to all take effect as the agency battles budget challenges as a result of failed efforts to increase funding from Congress.

 

The commission, which is designed to have five members, may instead have only one Democrat and one Republican early next year if Obama and the Senate cannot overcome political hurdles to confirm new commissioners.

So the man who was responsible for bailing out the banks at any cost, will now make sure these same banks don’t do anything bad again. And he will also, somehow, “supervise” America’s $234 trillion in derivatives and make sure nothing bad ever happens there too?

Somehow, we are a little skeptical. Sure enough: “The party-line split on the commission would probably delay votes on contentious Dodd-Frank regulations.” In other words more of the same “nothing must change” hard line stance the CFTC has so sternly pursued since the crisis, and before.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/6bv-ltnQ76U/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Despite ongoing optimism that the housing recovery can withstand fire, brimstone, rising rates, and collapsing confidence (in spite of the fact that indications from most top-down data are to the contrary), investors in US homebuilders may need to adjust this morning. If DR Horton is any indication of a broad trend (and empirical comparisons with its peers show that it is) then the firm’s huge miss in its cancellation rate (31.0% vs an expectation of 25.5%) in Q3 should be food for thought. The surge in cancellation was the largest MoM since mid-2008 and jumped to its highest since December 2008.

 

 

Does make one wonder if the lagged response to the surge in rates and collapse in applications is now catching up…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/7_EF1AAYYqo/story01.htm Tyler Durden