Guest Post: 10 Steps Closer To Economic Armageddon

Draghi introduced still-more-easing into Europe this morning as his surprise cut created turmoil in markets. What this means today, tomorrow, or next week is anyone’s guess. What it means in a larger context is not…

 

Via Monty Pelerin’s World blog,

1. Europe is not in good shape. Anyone who believed they were, should be disabused of such notions.

 

2. The forcing down of interest rates once again further exacerbates the longer-term mis-allocation of resources. Such actions may buy time, but only at the cost of greater problems down the road.

 

3. Macro-economics is failed witchcraft which should be apparent to anyone paying attention. Yet it will continue to be used to justify “remedial” actions out of desperation.

 

4. Governments around the world have only this hammer (liquidity/stimulus). They will hammer away even though that cannot solve the problem(s).

 

5. Liquidity and stimulus will not end in the US or Europe until markets end it. The market ending will be either an implosion or a crack-up boom. Either is possible at this stage.

 

6. Governments are in full pretend mode. They have no control over the situation other than to fool people into believing that things are getting better.

 

7. The policies employed by governments ensure the destruction of economies and themselves. Governments spiral downward toward defaults and bankruptcy that will take economies with them.

 

8. Currencies are being destroyed in terms of purchasing power.

 

9. Nothing is being done to correct economic problems. Politics has deemed true remedies too severe. They are off the table, replaced by extend and pretend actions.

 

10. The shelf-life of this government fraud is limited. Economic Armageddon is coming.

The frustrations of watching this play out are huge. So too is the knowledge that this entire scheme jeopardizes more than living standards and economies. It threatens the very future and quality of civilizations themselves.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/XbmEoc3Qb7I/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Student And Car Loans Represent 99% Of All Loans Taken Out In Past Year

The September consumer credit print is out and once again, it shows just what the key drivers in the US economy are. Or rather is: it is the US government handing out unrepayable student and car loans, even as the general consumer is widely deleveraging. Looking at the numbers: of the $13.7 billion in total consumer credit created in September, $15.8 billion (no, it’s not a typo) was non-revolving credit, i.e., auto and student loans. The remainder, or ($2 ) billion, was yet another month of credit card deleveraging, as the bulk Americans can only buy “stuff” if it comes with the implicit provision that the credit will never have to be repaid, such as when it comes from the most insolvent entity of all – Uncle Sam.

 

But perhaps the chart that puts it all in perspective, is the following, which shows the breakdown of total credit issued in the past year broken down between revolving (credit cards) and non-revolving (car and student loans). The latter amounts for 99% of all loans taken out in the past 12 months. It needs no additional commentary.

Thank you Uncle Sam for making yet another generation of indentured servants who are studying geology on the taxpayers’ dime, who will never get a job, who are up to their neck in debt, but at least can afford a Chevy Silverado.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/CaqZEVFv95I/story01.htm Tyler Durden

How High Will TWTR Stock Go? Ask Mr. Fed Chair(wo)man

Because it’s not about valuations.. and it’s not about rational expectations… we present the only metric necessary to project TWTR’s price into the oh-so-predictable future…

 

Correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint.

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/lCpja3twFyk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Endo's Message To The IRS: "F#ck You"

Submitted by Michael Castor via MichaelCastor.com,

Endo Health Solutions just announced a big acquisition. The company’s rationale is to take advantage of a stunning tax loop hole.

First a little background. Warning: this is a little dry and technical, so if you want, you can skip the background (I indicated below where that ends).

—–background begins———–

 

The US federal corporate tax rate is 35%. There are a handful of countries around the world where taxes are much lower (most notably Ireland, Singapore, and Switzerland). Ireland, for example, has a tax rate of 12.5%. Who wouldn’t want a lower tax rate? Just pack up and move to Ireland, right?

 

Well, Congress (which authors the IRS tax code) is smart enough not to allow that. For a variety of reasons, Companies can’t simply change their address. The US would continue to identify them as US companies and impose the 35% tax rate. What if, however, a company were to be acquired by an Irish parent. That could result in change of domicile. In order to do this, all one would need to do is set up a shell holding company in Ireland (essentially of no value itself) and issue shares to acquire the US company. Voila, it’s now a new company domiciled in Ireland, right? Well, Congress figured this one out to. Congress passed Section 7874 of the Internal Revenue Code decreeing that this type of behavior is foul play. If an Irish holding company acquires a US company such that the former shareholders remain the same shareholders, the IRS recognizes this transaction as a sham and continues to treat it as a US corporation for tax purposes (the Irish company will be taxed at 35%, with taxes payable to Uncle Sam). However, the IRS set an 80% threshold, meaning that if the US target is less than 80% of the parent/acquiring Irish company, the IRS accepts the transaction as legitimate.

 

Here’s where Endo got clever. They identified a way to ‘re-domicile’ and move to Ireland. They just need their newly-conceived Irish parent holding company to make two acquisitions simultaneously. One acquisition is Endo itself (which, by being acquired, effectively moves to Ireland). The other acquisition needs to be a non-US company and also needs to be of sufficient size that it will comprise at least 20% of the newly-formed Irish company. That way, the Irish holding company absorbs Endo, but Endo is less than the critical 80% of the new entity.

It is seriously brilliant.

Endo found a Canadian company, Paladin, to also be acquired by a new Irish holding company. Paladin will be about 22.5% of the new company (which will conveniently be named “Endo”) and existing Endo will be 77.5% of new Irish Endo. Perfect.

 

Endo paid a premium to induce Paladin to be acquired as part of this transaction. Normally an acquirer-company pays a premium because they can cut costs (ie eliminate some duplicate sales people, accounting people, etc). In such cases, the cost savings exceed the acquisition premium and it makes sense for all parties involved. Endo conceded that there won’t be much in terms of cost synergies from Paladin. However, by moving to Ireland, the tax rate will immediately move down from around 30% to 20% and then will gradually shift toward to the Irish rate of 12.5%. Endo’s tax savings vastly exceed the premium paid.

 

Financially, here’s the math rationale. If Endo has a pre-tax profit of $100 (purely by way of example) and is taxed at 30%, profit to shareholders = $70:

 

$100 (pre-tax profit) minus $30 (taxes)  = $70 (final profit)

 

If the tax rate falls to 15%, profit to shareholders = $85:

 

$100 (pre-tax profit) minus $15 (taxes)  = $85 (final profit)

 

Thus, the amount shareholders keep rises from $70 to $85 from this tax-accounting wizardry, a boost of about 20%.

 

———background ends————

There are a couple of implications to highlight.

  1. Endo’s shareholders are the clear winners. With lower taxes, more profit stays in shareholder pockets.
  2. The USA is the big loser. It’s not just that taxes go down. From the US point of view, taxes go away almost completely. Before this transaction, the US was collecting taxes at a rate of 30%. The tax rate will fall to less than 20%, but even more significantly, it won’t be the US collecting taxes. Endo is becoming an Irish company. Taxes will go to mother Ireland.

In my mind, this begs the question as to whether there are any moral issues raised by Endo’s actions. In answer, I assert that Endo has not breached any ethical boundaries. To the contrary, Endo has a fiduciary responsibility to its shareholders to maximize corporate profits. If the US government offers a legal mechanism by which Endo can lower its tax burden then it is Endo’s obligation to take advantage of this. (If the IRS had opined that transactions like this may be in violation of the spirit of the law, that might be a different story, but it does not seem to be the case.) Ultimately, Endo merely took advantage of a striking loop hole in the flawed US tax system.

Even so, there is an element about this transaction that is unseemly. The culture in the US encourages fairness. Endo operates entirely within the US. It gets to enjoy all the infrastructure and benefits that the federal government pays for with tax dollars. Going forward however, Endo won’t be paying much taxes, and what it will pay mostly won’t go to the US anyway. The absence of Endo’s tax payments (about $265m in 2012) will either be added to the deficit or somehow get made up by increased taxes on the rest of us.

Extrapolating beyond Endo, if one accepts the premise that companies are obligated to use legal means to minimize tax costs, and if one then takes this precedent to the logical conclusion, this transaction could/should be a road map for other companies to follow. While Ireland would delight in its new resultant tax revenue, the implications for the US are less sanguine. Is Congress paying attention?

In closing, I’ll point to a certain irony in all of this. My thoughts turn to the saying, “The only things certain in life are death and taxes.” Endo Health Solutions has focused its efforts on the latter.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/lxhs25aZkWQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Endo’s Message To The IRS: “F#ck You”

Submitted by Michael Castor via MichaelCastor.com,

Endo Health Solutions just announced a big acquisition. The company’s rationale is to take advantage of a stunning tax loop hole.

First a little background. Warning: this is a little dry and technical, so if you want, you can skip the background (I indicated below where that ends).

—–background begins———–

 

The US federal corporate tax rate is 35%. There are a handful of countries around the world where taxes are much lower (most notably Ireland, Singapore, and Switzerland). Ireland, for example, has a tax rate of 12.5%. Who wouldn’t want a lower tax rate? Just pack up and move to Ireland, right?

 

Well, Congress (which authors the IRS tax code) is smart enough not to allow that. For a variety of reasons, Companies can’t simply change their address. The US would continue to identify them as US companies and impose the 35% tax rate. What if, however, a company were to be acquired by an Irish parent. That could result in change of domicile. In order to do this, all one would need to do is set up a shell holding company in Ireland (essentially of no value itself) and issue shares to acquire the US company. Voila, it’s now a new company domiciled in Ireland, right? Well, Congress figured this one out to. Congress passed Section 7874 of the Internal Revenue Code decreeing that this type of behavior is foul play. If an Irish holding company acquires a US company such that the former shareholders remain the same shareholders, the IRS recognizes this transaction as a sham and continues to treat it as a US corporation for tax purposes (the Irish company will be taxed at 35%, with taxes payable to Uncle Sam). However, the IRS set an 80% threshold, meaning that if the US target is less than 80% of the parent/acquiring Irish company, the IRS accepts the transaction as legitimate.

 

Here’s where Endo got clever. They identified a way to ‘re-domicile’ and move to Ireland. They just need their newly-conceived Irish parent holding company to make two acquisitions simultaneously. One acquisition is Endo itself (which, by being acquired, effectively moves to Ireland). The other acquisition needs to be a non-US company and also needs to be of sufficient size that it will comprise at least 20% of the newly-formed Irish company. That way, the Irish holding company absorbs Endo, but Endo is less than the critical 80% of the new entity.

It is seriously brilliant.

Endo found a Canadian company, Paladin, to also be acquired by a new Irish holding company. Paladin will be about 22.5% of the new company (which will conveniently be named “Endo”) and existing Endo will be 77.5% of new Irish Endo. Perfect.

 

Endo paid a premium to induce Paladin to be acquired as part of this transaction. Normally an acquirer-company pays a premium because they can cut costs (ie eliminate some duplicate sales people, accounting people, etc). In such cases, the cost savings exceed the acquisition premium and it makes sense for all parties involved. Endo conceded that there won’t be much in terms of cost synergies from Paladin. However, by moving to Ireland, the tax rate will immediately move down from around 30% to 20% and then will gradually shift toward to the Irish rate of 12.5%. Endo’s tax savings vastly exceed the premium paid.

 

Financially, here’s the math rationale. If Endo has a pre-tax profit of $100 (purely by way of example) and is taxed at 30%, profit to shareholders = $70:

 

$100 (pre-tax profit) minus $30 (taxes)  = $70 (final profit)

 

If the tax rate falls to 15%, profit to shareholders = $85:

 

$100 (pre-tax profit) minus $15 (taxes)  = $85 (final profit)

 

Thus, the amount shareholders keep rises from $70 to $85 from this tax-accounting wizardry, a boost of about 20%.

 

———background ends————

There are a couple of implications to highlight.

  1. Endo’s shareholders are the clear winners. With lower taxes, more profit stays in shareholder pockets.
  2. The USA is the big loser. It’s not just that taxes go down. From the US point of view, taxes go away almost completely. Before this transaction, the US was collecting taxes at a rate of 30%. The tax rate will fall to less than 20%, but even more significantly, it won’t be the US collecting taxes. Endo is becoming an Irish company. Taxes will go to mother Ireland.

In my mind, this begs the question as to whether there are any moral issues raised by Endo’s actions. In answer, I assert that Endo has not breached any ethical boundaries. To the contrary, Endo has a fiduciary responsibility to its shareholders to maximize corporate profits. If the US government offers a legal mechanism by which Endo can lower its tax burden then it is Endo’s obligation to take advantage of this. (If the IRS had opined that transactions like this may be in violation of the spirit of the law, that might be a different story, but it does not seem to be the case.) Ultimately, Endo merely took advantage of a striking loop hole in the flawed US tax system.

Even so, there is an element about this transaction that is unseemly. The culture in the US encourages fairness. Endo operates entirely within the US. It gets to enjoy all the infrastructure and benefits that the federal government pays for with tax dollars. Going forward however, Endo won’t be paying much taxes, and what it will pay mostly won’t go to the US anyway. The absence of Endo’s tax payments (about $265m in 2012) will either be added to the deficit or somehow get made up by increased taxes on the rest of us.

Extrapolating beyond Endo, if one accepts the premise that companies are obligated to use legal means to minimize tax costs, and if one then takes this precedent to the logical conclusion, this transaction could/should be a road map for other companies to follow. While Ireland would delight in its new resultant tax revenue, the implications for the US are less sanguine. Is Congress paying attention?

In closing, I’ll point to a certain irony in all of this. My thoughts turn to the saying, “The only things certain in life are death and taxes.” Endo Health Solutions has focused its efforts on the latter.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/lxhs25aZkWQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Second Annual hedgeless_horseman's 12 Days of Christmas ~ Gift ideas for the Zero Hedge reader in your life

The Second Annual hedgeless_horseman’s 12 Days of Christmas
~
Gift ideas for the Zero Hedge reader in your life

 

1. Anyone, and I mean anyone, can grow young-tender-flavorful buckwheat as the foundation for a delicious salad.

One pound of buckwheat seeds, $5.00

 

2. With this book there is no need to attend a class to try or practice yoga.

Yoga Kundalini, For Body, Mind, and Beyond, by Ravi Singh, $16.99

 

3. Cooks on your list will enjoy reading this cookbook from cover to cover, and use it frequently.

Simple French Food, by Richard Olney, $19.95

 

4. Don’t judge this book by its goofy cover, or creepy title.  NVC is a
simple way for any self-centered asshole to become a better listener and
communicator.

Nonviolent Communication: A Language of Life, by Marshall B. Rosenberg, $19.95

 

5. Is there someone on your list that liked the movie, Gangs of New York?
This book is an enjoyable read, even if one does not live in NYC.

The Great Riots of New York 1712-1873, by Joel T. Headley, $24.99

 

6. On the gas stove, in the oven, in the fireplace, or on the campfire, this dutch oven is an important key to cooking well.

Lodge Pre-Seasoned Cast-Iron Dutch Oven With 10-1/4-inch Skillet As Lid, $34.99

 

7. The is the all stainless steel french press I use every morning.  It is hard for me to imagine life without one.

Frieling Ultimo 44 oz French Press, $125

 

8. Is there a better gift than pure silver coins with a topless woman on it!  Legend has it if you
touch one of these to Blythe Masters’ lips, then she will turn to paper
mâché.

10-One Ounce Silver Mexican Libertad Coins, $25 x 10, $250.00

 

9. This bomb-proof water filter is perfect for the survivalist or adventurer on your gift list.

Katadyn Pocket Water Filter, $349.00

 

10. For anyone with a fireplace that enjoys eating fowl or rabbits, this spit and drip pan are great additions to the homestead.

SpitJack Electric Fireplace Rotisserie, $279.00

Stainless Steel Drip Pan, $115.00

 

11. On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero, so go paragliding!

Three Days of Private Lessons at Cloud-9 Paragliding School in Draper, UT $350 x 3, $1,050.00

Three Nights at The Cliff Lodge at Snowbird, $200 x 3, $600.00

GoPro Hero3+ Black Edition HD-Camcorder, $399.00

 

12.  What to get the person on your list that has everything?  How about The Right Arm of the Free World, and everything to employ it in a fight for your
life?

DSA FAL-SA58 Tactical Para Carbine Rifle, 16.25″ Fluted Barrel, SOCOM Stock, Trijicon Tritium Iron Sights, and Extreme Duty Scope Mount, $2,175.00

Trijicon ACOG 3.5×35 Scope, Dual Illuminated Crosshair .308 Ballistic Reticle w/ TA51 Mount, $1,300.00

URBAN-ERT Urban Sentry One Point/Two Point Hybrid Sling, $45.70

10-200 Round Prvi Partizan Battle Packs .308 Win FMJ 145 grain ammo, $135.00 x 10, $1,350.00

10 FAL SA58 US Made Metric Pattern 25-Round Magazines, $25.00 x 10, $250.00

BlueForce Ten-Speed SR25 Chest Rig, $90.00

Two-Day Tactical Rifle Course, $300.00

 

Merry Christmas!


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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/q2CAObAKgK0/story01.htm hedgeless_horseman

The Second Annual hedgeless_horseman’s 12 Days of Christmas ~ Gift ideas for the Zero Hedge reader in your life

The Second Annual hedgeless_horseman’s 12 Days of Christmas
~
Gift ideas for the Zero Hedge reader in your life

 

1. Anyone, and I mean anyone, can grow young-tender-flavorful buckwheat as the foundation for a delicious salad.

One pound of buckwheat seeds, $5.00

 

2. With this book there is no need to attend a class to try or practice yoga.

Yoga Kundalini, For Body, Mind, and Beyond, by Ravi Singh, $16.99

 

3. Cooks on your list will enjoy reading this cookbook from cover to cover, and use it frequently.

Simple French Food, by Richard Olney, $19.95

 

4. Don’t judge this book by its goofy cover, or creepy title.  NVC is a
simple way for any self-centered asshole to become a better listener and
communicator.

Nonviolent Communication: A Language of Life, by Marshall B. Rosenberg, $19.95

 

5. Is there someone on your list that liked the movie, Gangs of New York?
This book is an enjoyable read, even if one does not live in NYC.

The Great Riots of New York 1712-1873, by Joel T. Headley, $24.99

 

6. On the gas stove, in the oven, in the fireplace, or on the campfire, this dutch oven is an important key to cooking well.

Lodge Pre-Seasoned Cast-Iron Dutch Oven With 10-1/4-inch Skillet As Lid, $34.99

 

7. The is the all stainless steel french press I use every morning.  It is hard for me to imagine life without one.

Frieling Ultimo 44 oz French Press, $125

 

8. Is there a better gift than pure silver coins with a topless woman on it!  Legend has it if you
touch one of these to Blythe Masters’ lips, then she will turn to paper
mâché.

10-One Ounce Silver Mexican Libertad Coins, $25 x 10, $250.00

 

9. This bomb-proof water filter is perfect for the survivalist or adventurer on your gift list.

Katadyn Pocket Water Filter, $349.00

 

10. For anyone with a fireplace that enjoys eating fowl or rabbits, this spit and drip pan are great additions to the homestead.

SpitJack Electric Fireplace Rotisserie, $279.00

Stainless Steel Drip Pan, $115.00

 

11. On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero, so go paragliding!

Three Days of Private Lessons at Cloud-9 Paragliding School in Draper, UT $350 x 3, $1,050.00

Three Nights at The Cliff Lodge at Snowbird, $200 x 3, $600.00

GoPro Hero3+ Black Edition HD-Camcorder, $399.00

 

12.  What to get the person on your list that has everything?  How about The Right Arm of the Free World, and everything to employ it in a fight for your
life?

DSA FAL-SA58 Tactical Para Carbine Rifle, 16.25″ Fluted Barrel, SOCOM Stock, Trijicon Tritium Iron Sights, and Extreme Duty Scope Mount, $2,175.00

Trijicon ACOG 3.5×35 Scope, Dual Illuminated Crosshair .308 Ballistic Reticle w/ TA51 Mount, $1,300.00

URBAN-ERT Urban Sentry One Point/Two Point Hybrid Sling, $45.70

10-200 Round Prvi Partizan Battle Packs .308 Win FMJ 145 grain ammo, $135.00 x 10, $1,350.00

10 FAL SA58 US Made Metric Pattern 25-Round Magazines, $25.00 x 10, $250.00

BlueForce Ten-Speed SR25 Chest Rig, $90.00

Two-Day Tactical Rifle Course, $300.00

 

Merry Christmas!


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/q2CAObAKgK0/story01.htm hedgeless_horseman

Bill Dudley On Breaking Up Too Big To Fail Banks: "Don't"

In a day full of “shocking” announcements, we just got the latest one. Because it must be truly a shock that none other than Goldman’s Bill Dudley, who also moonlights as head of the New York Fed, is stoically against the break up of America’s systemically critical, massive and 100% untenable FDIC-insured hedge funds, pardon megabanks. Such as Goldman.

From a just released speech ironically titled “Too Big To Fail”

I am not yet convinced that breaking up large, complex firms is the right approach.  In particular, these firms presumably exist, in large part, because there are scale or network effects that allow these firms to offer certain types of services that have value to their global clients.  These benefits might be lost or diminished if such firms were broken up.  In addition, the costs incurred in breaking up such firms need to be considered.  Finally, the breakup of such firms would not necessarily result in a significant reduction in overall systemic risk if the resulting component firms were still, collectively, systemic. 

That is so wrong and frankly moronic, as to border on the grotesque.

These megabanks only exist because the regulatory and financial climate in the US (and the entire world) is one which promotes consolidation to such a point where it is in every bank’s best interest to become as big and as systematically critical as possible in the shortest amount of time, and thus to always get bailed out whenever it is threatened with that other part of the Return equation: Risk.

For Dudley to not even remotely admit this is disingenuous, naive and frankly, idiotic.

The remainder of the Bill “just eat hedonic iPads” Dudley’s drivel can be found here.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4HN7zWPG6ic/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Bill Dudley On Breaking Up Too Big To Fail Banks: “Don’t”

In a day full of “shocking” announcements, we just got the latest one. Because it must be truly a shock that none other than Goldman’s Bill Dudley, who also moonlights as head of the New York Fed, is stoically against the break up of America’s systemically critical, massive and 100% untenable FDIC-insured hedge funds, pardon megabanks. Such as Goldman.

From a just released speech ironically titled “Too Big To Fail”

I am not yet convinced that breaking up large, complex firms is the right approach.  In particular, these firms presumably exist, in large part, because there are scale or network effects that allow these firms to offer certain types of services that have value to their global clients.  These benefits might be lost or diminished if such firms were broken up.  In addition, the costs incurred in breaking up such firms need to be considered.  Finally, the breakup of such firms would not necessarily result in a significant reduction in overall systemic risk if the resulting component firms were still, collectively, systemic. 

That is so wrong and frankly moronic, as to border on the grotesque.

These megabanks only exist because the regulatory and financial climate in the US (and the entire world) is one which promotes consolidation to such a point where it is in every bank’s best interest to become as big and as systematically critical as possible in the shortest amount of time, and thus to always get bailed out whenever it is threatened with that other part of the Return equation: Risk.

For Dudley to not even remotely admit this is disingenuous, naive and frankly, idiotic.

The remainder of the Bill “just eat hedonic iPads” Dudley’s drivel can be found here.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4HN7zWPG6ic/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Japanese Stocks Are Crashing As JPY Surges

No one has any good answers but it seems carry is being unwound in a hurry as US momos are hammered. Whether Draghi’s move shocked EURJPY riders enough to spark some major anxiety is unclear but Japanese stocks are now down over 440 points from early highs (to one month lows), US equities at their lows, and USDJPY blown back below 98.00.

 

 

which is odd considering that so many went short last week…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/PEPo-gRn770/story01.htm Tyler Durden