Category: zerohedge

If you downloaded the latest iOS update back in May, and any following updates, then congratulations…your COVID-19 infection status will likely soon be tracked by state health officials as part of each state’s contact tracing efforts.

Many iPhone users across the US have over the past few days started to notice a new setting under the “privacy” subtab of the iPhone health app. It looks like this, and allows users to “toggle on” COVID-19 exposure logging.

It’s all thanks to the latest update of Apple’s iOS operating system for iPhone, iOS13.5.

Let’s take a closer look.

Some on twitter have only just noticed the toggle button, and we must note that it appears to have been quietly installed by Apple in recent days.

Did your phone act up with no service a few days ago? What if I told you they secretly added #covid19 trackers. iPhones: settings/privacy/health. It’s there. Awake yet?

— Aubrey Huff (@aubrey_huff) June 19, 2020

A similar setting has been installed on Android phones.

Yup; it’s on mine.

— Pillow-Queen (@sara_jo_1969) June 19, 2020

Some users questioned whether Apple will truly respect their privacy regarding their COVID-19 status, or whether they’ve interacted with anyone who has the virus…or maybe even just passed them on the street or in the supermarket.

Mine said I needed to have bluetooth on…but I bet it’s still transmitting.

— Lasers r still cool. (@ARCAMMON) June 19, 2020

This is happening even as evidence suggests that most patients are infected by someone who either lives in, or frequently shares, the same space as them. Are you awake yet?

Update (1155ET): Following Dr. Fauci’s fearmongering yesterday that football may not be back in America this year, President Trump has spoken (well tweeted) up:

“Tony Fauci has nothing to do with NFL Football. They are planning a very safe and controlled opening.”

And then added, just stirring the political pot further:

“However, if they don’t stand for our National Anthem and our Great American Flag, I won’t be watching!!!”

Tony Fauci has nothing to do with NFL Football. They are planning a very safe and controlled opening. However, if they don’t stand for our National Anthem and our Great American Flag, I won’t be watching!!!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 19, 2020

And cue the outrage mob!

*  *  *

Just when you thought it was safe to socially-distanced, mask-wearing venture outdoors, and just a day after the English Premier League soccer reopened from its lockdown, America’s ‘Dr.Doom’ – Dr. Anthony Fauci – told CNN that the NFL may not happen this year…

“Unless players are essentially in a bubble – insulated from the community and they are tested nearly every day – it would be very hard to see how football is able to be played this fall.”

Football may not happen this year, Dr. Anthony Fauci tells @drsanjaygupta.
“Unless players are essentially in a bubble – insulated from the community and they are tested nearly every day – it would be very hard to see how football is able to be played this fall.” pic.twitter.com/mDcTRMBucU

— New Day (@NewDay) June 18, 2020

We wonder what the league will have to say about his warnings? How many players in the NFL have comorbidities? How many players in the NFL are over 50?

Perhaps Dr.Fauci needs to look at some different ‘science’.

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

China’s carbon dioxide emissions increased by 3.4 percent last year, higher than the ten-year average growth rate of 2.6 percent, BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy showed on Wednesday – the highest growth rate of Chinese emissions since 2011.

Chinese CO2 emissions accounted for the single largest share of global carbon emissions last year – 28.8 percent, according to BP’s annual statistics report.  

[ZH: Where’s Great?]

China was also the key driver of energy consumption growth last year when global growth slowed down to 1.3 percent from 2.8 percent energy demand growth in 2018.  

While global energy demand growth slowed down, the growth in carbon emissions from energy was 0.5 percent in 2019, less than half the ten-year average growth of 1.1 percent per year. Slower energy demand growth and increased use of renewables and natural gas instead of coal helped reduce the carbon emissions growth, partially reversing some of the unusually strong 2.1-percent increase in global emissions in 2018, BP said.  

This year, due to the pandemic, emissions are likely to fall, BP’s chief executive Bernard Looney wrote in a LinkedIn post, adding that in order to get to net zero emissions by 2050, the world would need similar-sized reductions in carbon emissions every other year for the next 25 years.  

“We can’t lockdown every year. We need another way – to build back better,” said Looney.

China, for its part, saw its coal capacity surge in 2019 to the point of raising the world’s net capacity additions of coal-fired power generation for the first time since 2015, a report from environmental organizations showed earlier this year.

At the start of this year, leading environmental economist Lord Nicholas Stern said that China would be the key to the global action to fight carbon emissions and climate change. According to Lord Stern, China needs to reduce its reliance on coal, which continues to drive emissions despite the massive uptake of renewable energy sources.

The Mayor of Tulsa, Oklahoma declared a civil emergency on Thursday and announced a curfew affecting a six-block radius around the BOK Center, where President Trump will hold his first reelection rally since the start of the coronavirus pandemic on Saturday.

Citing “civil unrest” resulting in “multiple unlawful assemblies and multiple incidents of violence and property damage,” Mayor G.T. Bynum made the announcement amid threats from ‘individuals and organized groups.’

“I have received information from the Tulsa Police Department and other law enforcement agencies that shows that individuals from organized groups who have been involved in destructive and violent behavior in other States are planning to travel to the city of Tulsa for purposes of causing unrest in and around the rally,” Bynum wrote in the executive order, according to Fox News.

🚨CURFEW IN EFFECT FOR DOWNTOWN🚨

As part of our preparations for President Trump’s Rally this Saturday, we are working on making the area secure for everyone’s safety.

As posted earlier, the area illustrated in this map will need to be free of vehicles and pedestrian traffic. pic.twitter.com/uT76N0IWRc

— Tulsa Police (@TulsaPolice) June 19, 2020

President Trump warned “protesters, anarchists, agitators, looters or lowlifes” that the will “not be treated like you have been in New York, Seattle, or Minneapolis.”

Any protesters, anarchists, agitators, looters or lowlifes who are going to Oklahoma please understand, you will not be treated like you have been in New York, Seattle, or Minneapolis. It will be a much different scene!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 19, 2020

Meanwhile, BOK Center officials have asked the Trump campaign for a written plan detailing measures to incorporate “health and safety” steps ad social distancing – with health officials expressing concern over the potential for the rally to accelerate the spread of coronavirus in the city – citing an uptick in cases.

According to the report, the Trump campaign will give masks and hand sanitizer to each attendee, as well as conduct temperature checks at the door. GOP Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, however, says that she believes the masks will be optional and that there doesn’t appear to be a social distancing plan.

The rally – for which Trump supporters began lining up outside the venue since Monday – was moved from Friday, June 19 to Saturday due to the Juneteenth holiday commemorating slaves freed in Texas following the Confederacy’s final surrender to the Union Army.

“So you are prepared to sit out here for five-six days?” asked a local KFOR reporter to a group of Trump supporters camped out ahead of the event.

“We’re hill till after the rally,” one woman replied.

#Trump supporters already camped out for #Saturday campaign rally @jaygraymatters live coverage tomorrow pic.twitter.com/lZG5v5wKoq

— joellen ruvoli (@llcooljr) June 18, 2020

It is unclear if the curfew will apply to those camped out.

According to the Trump campaign, more than 1,000,000 people have registered online for the first-come-first-serve rally, which has a capacity of just under 20,000. Those supporters were required to sign a waiver releasing the Trump campaign from responsibility for possible exposure to the coronavirus.

“Looking at a 2nd event in town to get more people to be w/@realDonaldTrump,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale tweeted as the number of people registered surpassed 200,000. “Gonna be GREAT in the most open state in the nation!” –Fox News

Meanwhile, where’s Joe Biden?

Sleepy Joe “rally.” 😂 He can’t even fill 10 seats!

This is why they don’t want President @realDonaldTrump at the BOK Center tomorrow with over 1 MILLION ticket requests!!! #MAGA pic.twitter.com/jSLozJmWKD

— Jenna Ellis (@JennaEllisEsq) June 19, 2020

 

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the polarising director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, slammed everyday Americans for refusing to go along with ‘authority’ on medical matters, and accused people of ‘amazing denial’ when it comes to ‘truth’.

Speaking on a podcast called Learning Curve, produced by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Fauci charged that “unfortunately, there is a combination of an anti-science bias that people are — for reasons that sometimes are, you know, inconceivable and not understandable — they just don’t believe science and they don’t believe authority.”

“So when they see someone up in the White House, which has an air of authority to it, who’s talking about science, that there are some people who just don’t believe that — and that’s unfortunate because, you know, science is truth,” Fauci asserted.

“It’s amazing sometimes the denial there is, it’s the same thing that gets people who are anti-vaxxers, who don’t want people to get vaccinated, even though the data clearly indicate the safety of vaccines,” Fauci proclaimed, adding “That’s really a problem.”

Perhaps the real reason Americans don’t trust Fauci is that he’s consistently flip flopped and contradicted himself on ‘the truth’ for months.

The man also exudes authoritarianism, and clearly has a problem with anyone who questions his superiority.

Fauci also has a long history of being the front man for a network of powerful Big Pharma and Big Medicine interests, pushing vaccines and medicines in a clear conflict of interest.

*  *  *

Following Fauci’s blame-scaping the anti-science bias of (implicitly ignorant) Americans, Thiel Capital MD Eric Weinstein unleashed a barrage of uncomfortable truths on Twitter

How dare this man.

Do you want to know why they are learning to hate scientists for real Dr Fauci?

Because your group lies about science & your ilk drove the truth telling scientists out of their rightful places inside the instutions calling bullshit on your lying about masks. pic.twitter.com/VJLTGT0GOe

— Eric Weinstein (@EricRWeinstein) June 18, 2020

Scientists like me who don’t go along with cowards & crowds cannot disrupt your group’s lies because we are outside. Imagine if I was tweeting from the National Science Foundation or MIT. It would be a national news story about how your cabal lies and degrades faith in science: https://t.co/leYsCerG3o

— Eric Weinstein (@EricRWeinstein) June 18, 2020

Weinstein went on:

“But you prattle on. We will one day find out later that you suspected all along that the Wuhan BS-L 4 virology lab might well be involved, but that you didn’t say so for this or that political reason.

Because you aren’t a scientist. You play one. You are an MD turned actor.

ven when I agree with the conclusions of your instutional pseudo science cabal, you cheat to get to our shared conclusions on vaccines, viruses, climate, etc.

So you want people to believe in science again? Ok. Call-yourself-out. Admit that your crowd **lied** about our masks.

And not to put too fine a point on it: your group is sitting in chairs reserved for people who don’t do what your cabal just did.

You just don’t have what it takes sir. I’m sorry. But science isn’t acting. It’s not a beauty pagent. It’s not politics.

Science requires courage.”

 

In a mirror-image move of May’s WTI collapse, S&P 500 futures had a ‘WTF’ moment this morning as the June contract expired.

In the final 5 seconds of trading ahead of the expiry of the June futures contract, the S&P exploded over 30 points higher (from around 3160 to close at 3196) on notable volume…

…as we suspect some options market-maker’s algo went wild in its last ditch effort to minimize pin-pain.

This was absolutely not evident in any other contracts…

This massively decoupled from the June contract, and since June’s expiration, September futures have done nothing but fade…

But yeah, the markets are efficient etc. blah blah blah…

While retail traders  -and now, hedge funds – both rushing into stocks…

… one group of investors remains stubbornly out of the market: we are talking about large institutions, including risk-parity funds…

… and CTAs. Confirming this muted sentiment, Nomura’s Masanari Takada writes overnight that “factor trends in US and DM equities indicate that risk appetite is more muted now than it was in early June” or as he puts it “to some extent, investors appear to have gone back to selling value, buying momentum, and buying low-vol.”

As a result, if the “momentum into value rotation” trade is once again abandoned, and one look at the long term chart suggests this is the most likely outcome…

… should investor sentiment continue to straddle the line between bullishness and bearishness, and “if good and bad news continues to net out in the way it has been, with little change in external circumstances”, investors will probably proceed to sell value and buy momentum as a matter of course, according to Nomura which warns that “by falling back into familiar “pattern ruts”, these trends would give the surface appearance of a market becoming progressively more risk-off.”

Perhaps as a result of the recent mangling of momentum trades which suffered dramatic losses in the past two weeks, one big missing link that could enable a substantial risk off episide, is the abovementioned absence of the trend-following investor class such as CTAs.

But why CTAs aren’t buying more equity futures? According to Takada the answer is simple: 10yr UST yield staying consistently low.

As the Nomura quant explains, “we are not seeing any significant shifts in supply and demand among speculative investors. It is difficult to predict how fundamentals-focused investors exercising discretionary judgment might act, but programmatic traders like CTAs and risk-parity funds appear to be idling their way into asset reallocation (selling bonds and buying stocks).”

And while systematic traders may be on their way to turning properly bullish (as recent observations from Charlie McElligott have hinted), this flow could still end up becoming stuck in the aforementioned “pattern rut” if the incoming good news turns out to be lacking.

So to answer the headline question, whether the market breaks out of its present indecision and allows the resumption of an algorithm-led risk rally, will depends on whether the 10yr UST yield heads up to above 0.84% rather than heading down to below 0.54% (and to a lesser extent whether the VIX falls to below 20.)

The failure of the 10yr UST yield to break back above 0.84% is putting a damper on the buying of equities by systematic funds in general and CTAs in particular. As Nomura points out, CTAs are only at an early stage of accumulating long positions in US equity futures, and “since their net long positions are not especially large yet, there is still quite a bit of leeway for more net buying.”

For now, however, CTA net buying of US equity futures has not managed to break out of the well-trodden median pattern followed during past periods of accumulation, with the line-apparently leveling off now. The “pattern rut” story seems to apply here as well, according to Takeda.

Digging deeper, from a technical angle, the lack of momentum behind CTAs’ net buying of equity futures can be attributed to what looks like a pause in CTAs’ asset reallocation involving exits from long positions in bond futures, especially 10yr UST futures (TY). In other words, CTAs are past the peak in their accumulation of long TY positions.

So what happens next?

According to Nomura, if the 10yr UST yield climbs back towards 0.84% (rather than heading down to the 0.54% recorded on 9 March), CTAs might well accelerate their selling of UST futures and buying of US equity futures (they are, after all, purely momentum traders).  However, global macro hedge funds are currently turning bullish on USTs, and there has been no collapse in risk-parity funds’ exposure to bonds, either. The UST market is looking deadlocked as a result.

There is a labor strike brewing at the New York Police Department, where officers are reportedly being encouraged to call out sick on July 4th in order to give the city its “independence”. 

The move comes after weeks of police officers around the United States facing unprecedented backlash as a result of the death of George Floyd. So far, officers in Buffalo and Atlanta have both been reported to have resigned and/or called out en masse and now it looks like the New York Police Department could be next.

Flyers are being passed around that suggest the strike in response to proposed police reform and an “anti-cop” climate that many officers believe make it more difficult to do their jobs. 

A text message that is going around between NYPD officers says “NYPD cops will strike on July 4th to let the city have their independence without cops,” according to the NY Post. 

“Cops that say we can’t strike because of the Taylor Law, the people and this city doesn’t [sic] honor us why honor them [sic],” the message reads. The origin of the messages are unclear. 

“Police officers like you and me took an oath to protect strangers regardless of race, class or gender. Today we are vilified and must stand as one,” it continues. 

Another such message uses the hashtag #Bluflu and tells officers to call out sick July 4. It says if they are denied the sick day by their precinct, to call the main NYPD sick desk or to ask for an ambulance. 

“If you are held because of the #Bluflu, request a bus and go sick from command,” the message says. 

PBA President Patrick Lynch said: “The situation we are in right now is no joke. NYC cops have reached the breaking point. Over the past few weeks, we have been attacked in the streets, demonized in the media and denigrated by practically every politician in this city. Now we are facing the possibility of being arrested any time we go out to do our job.”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Rather than discuss Chinese tanks exercising near the Indian border, or Iranian missiles, or the ‘You lied/No, you lied’ details of Bolton’s book, or the latest US virus numbers, or the relatively inconsequential ebb and flow of markets over the last 24 hours –and perhaps just because it’s a sunny June Friday– I would rather address the long-running Brexit issue for once.

There has been some good news on that front this week, it would seem, with blinking perhaps being done. Or perhaps not. We shall soon see. Regardless, let’s look at the issue in song. Apologies to Bob Dylan (and commiserations to those who don’t know the original, classic Tangled Up in Blue).

Tangled Up in EU

Early one mornin’ Mr BoJo risin’; with Von der Leyen’s in charge instead

Wondrin’ if the EU’d changed at all; If it’s budget was still in the red

Folks they said their lives together; Sure was gonna be rough

They never did like; Junker’s policies; Their offer wasn’t big enough

And BoJo was standin’ on the side of the union; Rain fallin’ on his shoes

Heading out for the US east coast; Lord knows he’d paid no dues

Gettin’ through; Tangled up in EU

EU wasn’t a marriage when they first met; It was all free trade, of course

UK liked the better-quality jam, I guess; And they liked his military force

They drove that car as far as they could; Abandoned it out west

Split up on a dark sad night; Not agreeing it was best

EU turned around to look at him; As he was walkin’ away

Heard them say over his shoulder; We’ll meet again some day

On the free trade avenue; Tangled up in EU

BoJo never had no job in the no powerhouse; Worked as a journo for a spell

But he never did like it all that much; And one day the axe just fell

So he drifted down to Westminster; Where he was looking for to be employed

Workin’ on thoughts of fishin’ boats; and fishin’ rights to be enjoyed

But all the while he was alone; The past was close behind

He saw a lot of trade deals come and go; But the EU never ‘scaped his mind

And he just grew; Tangled up in EU

EU was workin’ on a tariff-free place; The UK stopped in to cheer

Brits kept lookin’ at the sovereignty stuff; In the spotlight all so clear

And later on as the crowd thicked out; Brits didn’t want to do the same

EU was standing there in back of their chair; Sayin’, ‘Don’t you wanna Remain’?

BoJo muttered somethin’ under his breath; EU studied the lines on his face

He must admit he felt a little uneasy; he’d be in a bad, hard place

With no lorries getting through; Tangled up in EU

EU threw some more QE on the stove; But offered no FTA

I thought you’d never leave, she said; Though you aren’t the type to stay

Then she opened up a book of accounts; And handed it to see

Written by an Italian banker; From the present century

And very few of them digits rang true; Or glowed like burnin’ coal

Pourin’ off of every page; Like it was written in his soul

So BoJo said ‘Boo!’…to being; Tangled up in EU

He lived with them in Downing Street; In a basement down the stairs

There was music in the cafés at night; And revolution in the air

Then he started into dealing with others’ free trade; As something inside of EU died

EU wanted him to change everything he owned; and keep the ECJ inside

And when finally the bottom fell out; BoJo became withdrawn

The only thing he knew how to do; Was to keep on keepin’ on

Like a bird that flew; Tangled up in EU

So now he’s not goin’ back again; He got to get to somewhere somehow

All the people he used to know; They’re an illusion to him now

Some are Oxford mathematicians; Some are carpenters’ wives

Don’t know how it all got started; Don’t know what they’re doin’ with their lives

But, well, the UK’s still on the road; Headin’ for another joint

We never really felt the same; Always saw it from a different point of view

Tangled up in EU

Today in “the government is an awful capital allocator” news, trillions of dollars in stimulus money has apparently been doled out with little to no oversight. At the same time, politicians on both sides of the aisle are scrambling to establish order in the form of various oversight panels and inspectors general, according to Bloomberg.

In fact, it was found that some of the oversight bodies responsible for tracking the money are “barely functional”. This comes after $2 trillion in stimulus cash has been doled out. Many, including Peter Schiff, predicted months ago that printing and distributing such a vast amount of money would inevitably lead to fraud and misuse due to the government’s inability to track the money.

Now that’s exactly what’s taking place. Meanwhile, a special inspector general, Brian Miller, has only been sworn in recently and is already facing questions from Democrats about his ability to be independent.

Senator Elizabeth Warren noted that funds are already going to the wrong place: “We’ve seen giant public companies scoop up relief meant for small businesses, an inspector general fired, promises made to muzzle independent oversight.” 

Sherrod Brown of Ohio called Miller “evasive” and “unwilling to condemn” Trump for removing other agency inspectors general ahead of the stimulus being sent out. 

Miller is tasked with trying to prove to both sides of the aisle that he can be independent, fair and a person of consequence when he releases his first report, which is due in August. 

Neil Barofsky, the first special inspector general who oversaw TARP, said: “Your first report is to amplify what you’ve found. That really defined what we would be. There is always going to be tension between a good IG and the agency.”

But some business leaders are worried that the “oversight” is going to turn into a political sideshow (as everything tends to do). Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the Chamber of Commerce said: “There’s already growing concern that congressional oversight will in part focus on companies or sectors that various elected officials will view as unworthy of assistance, irrespective of whether they qualify under the terms of the programs in question.”

At the same time, Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell have been unable to agree on a chairman for the Congressional Oversight Commission, which is designed to be a bi-partisan entity. The commission has produced one report so far and has another due on Wednesday. 

A similar panel in 2008 took months to assemble. Kenneth Troske, a member of the panel led by Warren before she became a senator said: “There is no such thing as nonpartisan. It’s an inherent challenge of that type of work.”

Another panel, the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee, saw its head Glenn Fine ousted by Trump in April. It was the first of five dismissals of inspectors general that Trump made. 

Cynthia Schnedar, who has served as deputy inspector general and acting inspector general at the Justice Department said: “I don’t think the firings are going to scare most IGs. They will do their jobs, but he can pick them off one by one.”

The panel reported last Wednesday that there was “grant fraud” that included the Paycheck Protection Program loans. 

“Increased loan volume, loan amounts, and expedited loan processing time frames may make it more difficult for SBA to identify red flags in loan applications,” the report said. 

We’d make a joke about this being your tax dollars at work, but tax revenue no longer matters. This is the Fed’s money printing funding big government at work. And as we can see, two wrongs don’t make a right.