Virus Lockdowns Smash German Jobs, Lead To Record Drop In Eurozone Economy

Virus Lockdowns Smash German Jobs, Lead To Record Drop In Eurozone Economy

German unemployment soared in April, while the Eurozone economy contracts the quickest on record as coronavirus lockdowns inflict severe economic damage across the continent. 

Germany, the world’s fourth-largest economy and Europe’s largest, experienced a sharp increase in the number of people out of work in April, rising by 373,000 to 2.639 million, the Federal Labor Office reported on Thursday (April 30). The forecast among 20 economists was between 10,000 and 350,000, which over exceeded their expectations. The result was a bump higher in the unemployment rate to 5.8% from 5.0% in March, reported Reuters.

h/t Reuters’ Riham Alkousaa

Reuters’ Riham Alkousaa tweeted, “So 10.1 mln people on short-time work in Germany, 373,000 more unemployed in April and the unemployment rate is now 5.8% from previous 5.0% The virus is taking its toll on the German job market.” 

Data from the Federal Labor Office also showed a plunge in retail sales of 5.6% in March, which was a slightly smaller dip than what analysts were predicting around -7.3%. Retail sales have been widely depressed in the country since COVID-19 cases and deaths started to appear as early as February. The lockdowns, which began in mid-March, have taken a drastic economic toll on households as the economy grinds to a halt. Government data shows higher retail sales at supermarkets that offset some of the losses elsewhere. 

The German economy is expected to contract 6.3% this year as a recession could trough in the second quarter and surge after lockdowns are lifted. Some businesses reopened last week, but threats of a second coronavirus wave have left much of the economy in economic paralysis. 

For the continent, well, lockdowns have led to the fastest rate of economic decline on record. Eurozone GDP for the first quarter fell by 3.8% compared with the previous quarter. This is the most significant collapse in economic growth since the data series began in 1995.

Jessica Hinds, a European economist at Capital Economics, suggests the plunge in economic activity is not over. She said the first quarter “will pale in comparison with the complete collapse that will surely be recorded in Q2.” Meanwhile, stocks around the world have been rallying as if the crisis is over, even though the economic damage is only starting to be realized.  


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 07:21

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Sn0TEN Tyler Durden

LOKIN-20: UK Quarantine Sparks Increasing Health Concerns

LOKIN-20: UK Quarantine Sparks Increasing Health Concerns

Authored by Iain Davis via Off-Guardian.org,

A new public health crisis, very recently identified as LOKIN-20, is raising increasing health concerns in the UK. In their response to a respiratory illness called COVID-19 (C19) the UK State are among those who have responded by locking up their populations and destroying their own national economy. This appears to be causing LOKIN-20.

The most recent statistics from UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) raise significant concerns about health impact of the lockdown regimes favoured by some, but not all, governments. All in response to a disease which researchers at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University estimate to have an infection fatality rate (IFR) of between 0.1% and 0.36%. Similar to seasonal flu.

Of course, a syndrome called LOKIN-20 hasn’t been identified as a cause of death. However, in light of the current data, this post asks if it should.

LOKIN-20 AND THE LACK OF SCIENTIFIC JUSTIFICATION

Both Public Health England (PHE) and the Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) were satisfied that COVID-19 (C19) presented a “low risk” of mortality and downgraded it from the status of a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) on March 19th. The ACDP board members include Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College. Presumably Prof. Ferguson was among the dissenting voices on the ACDP board as he completely ignored the majority opinion of his scientific colleagues.

In an interview on 13th February, widely reported by the mainstream media (MSM), he stated his predictive models were “not absurd.” 

He said that infection rates of 60% of the population with a 1% mortality rate were possible. Standing by his prediction of 400,000 C19 deaths in the UK. The Imperial College computer model report was released to the public on 16th March, predicting huge numbers of deaths from C19. By the 19th March Prof. Ferguson must have known a majority of his peers disagreed with him.

When it comes to wildly inaccurate predictions Prof. Ferguson’s work at Imperial College has a long and distinguished history. In 2002, he said that 50,000 people in the UK would die from “mad cow disease”, to date less than 200 have passed away; he predicted 200 million global deaths from the H5N1 bird flu. Currently it is a suspected factor in the deaths of 455 people world wide; in 2009 he told the UK Government that 65,000 could die from swine flu in the UK and worked with the World Health Organisation to predict millions of deaths from the H1N1 global flu pandemic.

Suspected resultant UK deaths from swine flu were estimated to be 457 and the global total showed 18,500 laboratory-confirmed deaths from the H1N1 pandemic. The U.S. Center For Disease Control (CDC) claim there were many more, though their estimate varies between 150,000 and 500,000.

Quite an error margin and still considerably less than Imperial Colleges fantasy. The CDC is heavily funded by flu vaccine manufacturers.

While Prof. Ferguson and his Imperial College colleagues have been consistently wrong they have also been unquestioningly believed by governments and intergovernmental bodies on every occasion. Seemingly without reservation.

Despite the clear evidence to the contrary, policy makers from all political parties have shown tremendous loyalty to Imperial College’s silly data models. In doing so, they have not only ignored the researchers woeful history of failed predictions but have also denied the scientific evidence which usually contradicts them.

In no way can basing policy decisions on Imperial Colleges computer models be considered science led decision making. Quite the opposite.

LOKIN-20 AND LOCKDOWN MADNESS

Farr’s Law is observed with all viral diseases and describes the rate at which a viral infections increases and then declines in a given population. Initially, the virus has practically unlimited hosts and the rate of increasing infection is exponential.

As more people become infected that rate declines. The numbers still increase but the rate of that increase drops sharply. Once the rate starts to decline virologists and epidemiologists can then predict the scale of the outbreak with some confidence.

It indicates that the disease has passed its peak potential and will wane naturally in the coming days and weeks. Regardless of intervention.

Increase in Mortality Analysis by John Hopkin’s University shown by The Financial Times [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Based upon UK statistics released by Worldometer we can see this initial rapidly increasing rate of infection and identify when that rate began to slow down. For the 50 day inclusive period, between the February 25th until April 15th, this changing rate of increase was evident.

That rate peaked on the March 4th and has declined since. Following the drop in this rate on the 4th, with a consistent downward trend to March 16th, the scientists on the ACDP board could predict the trajectory of the disease with some certainty and consequently downgraded C19 due to low mortality rates.

Calculating the daily rate of increase can be done simply by dividing the current day’s total number of cases by the previous days total. For example, on March 3rd there were 51 total cases rising by 36, to reach a total of 87, by March 4th. A ratio rate increase of 0.71.

This was the peak rate of increasing infections in the UK. From this date onward the rate of increase declined markedly, in accordance with Farr’s Law. We can plot these figures to find the changing rate of the increase in cases.

This slowing rate of new infections is also evident when we look at the logarithmic scale of UK Infections rates. This produces the familiar infection rate curve synonymous with Farr’s Law.

UK Case Infection Growth Rate From Worldometer [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

The UK government are among the many who apparently ignored the most basic concepts in virology and chose instead to base their lockdown regime upon the fictitious Imperial College models. All the science indicated that existing measures, encouraging the public to observe basic hygiene and limit interactions with vulnerable people, was working, as C19 followed the normal bell curve of any viral disease in a population.

There was no scientific justification for the lockdown. Nothing about the UK State’s response was “led by the science.”

Nor is there any evidence that lockdown regimes have any positive impact upon infections rates. Comparisons between severe lockdown states and those who opted for less draconian measures reveal no advantage to placing your population under house arrest.

States who chosen not to rip their economies apart appear to have fared much better. Sweden did not deploy a lockdown and yet, according to data from John Hopkin’s University, case rates per million of populations are lower.

Further comparative analysis supports these findings. In terms of limiting infection rates, there is no discernible benefit to lockdown regimes. In fact, Oxford University found a direct correlation between infection rates and the relative severity of lockdown regimes. It suggests the more stringent the lockdown, the higher the infection rate.

This is not unexpected, as numerous epidemiological studies have shown that infection rates for C19 are higher when people are exposed to it for prolonged periods in confined spaces. Locking people up in their homes is probably the worst thing you could do if you wanted to reduce the infections and the duration of the outbreak.

This is well known to the World Health Organisation. In their joint study with Chinese authorities, published in February, the WHO stated that airborne spread wasn’t reported for C19 and was not considered to be a method of transmission.

They found that most infections occurred within families where the chance of infection was as high as 20%. However, the chance of infection in the community was estimated to be between 1-5%.

The WHO also stated that COVID 19 is less virulent than influenza. They say it is spread by droplets and cannot linger in the air. Equally there is little evidence that flu transmission is airborne. The comparison between C19 and influenza is worth considering as we discuss LOKIN 20.

LOKIN-20 LURKS BEHIND THE DATA

About the only consistent element of the narrative we have been given about C19 is that we must believe the death toll is horrendous. This “alarmism” has been spread by State officials and the mainstream media (MSM). It is unmitigated drivel.

Here are some important factors to bear in mind whenever the MSM give you statistics about alleged deaths from C19 in the UK. These factors are unique to C19.

The ONS recording system was changed by the State, but only for C19, from recording only registered deaths to adding in provisional deaths assumed to be from C19. The RT-PCR test for C19 does not appear to be very reliable. Furthermore, the man who won the Nobel Prize for designing it specifically stated that it could not identify a virus. As previously stated, emerging studies indicate a much higher infection and thus much lower mortality rate for C19.

However, in the UK, a positive test is not even required for someone to be deemed to have died from C19. Nor does there need to be any clear evidence of causality for C19 to be declared as the underlying cause of death.

Merely “mentioning” C19 is considered sufficient. Regardless of other, often multiple, comorbidities and infections. In addition, from an age demographic perspective, C19 deaths appear to be indistinguishable from quite normal mortality.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) have reported a consistent rise in mortality between weeks 11 – 15, covering the period 7th March to 10th April 2020 in England and Wales. During that period deaths from all causes (all cause mortality) have steadily climbed and have been above the ONS 5 year average in weeks 14 and 15.

The ONS calculate the mean average from the 5 preceding years completed statistics. This means that any year prior to 2014, many with much higher than average mortality, are not used to calculate the current average.

There is no evidence that this years all cause mortality in England and Wales is in any way unprecedented. In recent history 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2017 have all been years with comparable, if not higher mortality. None were deemed reason to force the population to incarcerate themselves.

The demographics of the UK show a growing but ageing population. Age is the primary corollary for normal mortality and C19 is no different. The ONS expect the 5 year average figure to steadily increase while the population continues to age.

The MSM regularly report C19 suspected deaths among the relatively young. This is to give you the impression that C19 can strike anyone at anytime.

What they consistently fail to mention is that PHE records of ICU admissions for influenza indicate all ages are at risk from the flu. This is not the case with C19. Its risks apparently increase with age.

There was a media frenzy when the ONS released their all cause mortality statistics for Week 15. This showed there were 7,996 deaths over and above the 5 year average. In total 6,213 mentioned C19. Despite the MSM’s attempt to convince you this somehow proves C19 is a modern day plague, a cursory look at the data demonstrates that it is no such thing.

The ONS noted that these were the highest single week mortality figure for England and Wales since 2000. This is true, however the historical data also demonstrates that one week statistical record was exceeded in 2000, 1999 and 1997. Bluntly, not only is there nothing unprecedented about the overall mortality figures, the high one week spike isn’t anything new either.

To further put this into perspective, the population of England and Wales in 2000 was just under 53 million. In 2020 it conservatively stands at more than 60 million. That’s more than a 13% increase in 20 years, with a notable ageing of the population over the same period.

Normalising for population growth alone, irrespective of ageing, if 20,566 died in one week in 2000 then week 15 mortality figures in 2020 are equivalent to 16,109. About 4,450 fewer than in 2000, in relative terms. If we take similar normalisation into account for previous years of high mortality (1995, 1996, 1998, 199) then, as a percentage of population, relative 2020 mortality statistics are well below those years and further below 2017.

As the death rate from C19 reduces in the UK, it is clear that the C19 threat level never warranted the lockdown regime and the collapse of the economy. At the risk of being accused of heresy, it is absolutely possible to state that C19 is like the flu in many respects.

UK Statistics from Worldometer [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

LOKIN-20 SEEN IN THE DATA

As usual, in their week 15 report, the ONS noted what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to inflate the C19 mortality statistics. Of the 6,213 reported C19 deaths, for week 15 in England and Wales, 2,333 also mentioned both influenza and pneumonia. It is impossible to see how these deaths can legitimately be called C19 deaths.

Consequently, all that can be said is that of the 7,996 excess deaths, beyond the 5-year average, 3880 deaths mentioned C19 on its own, though we know from previous releases that more than 90% of those had at least one other serious comorbidity. The remaining 4116 deaths were also attributable to at least one other infection and additional comorbidities.

The confusion about causes of death has been highlighted by the Royal College of Pathologists who have called for a systemic review. The Health Service Journal reported that there was “uncertainty” about reported C19 deaths and questions remained about how many may have died as a “knock on” consequence of the lockdown.

The reasons for scepticism becomes clearer when we look at comparative death in the first 15 weeks of 2020. This shows considerably higher numbers of deaths from respiratory infections other than C19 in England and Wales.

When we also consider that attribution of C19 deaths are uniquely vague, and that a considerable proportion may well be attributable to influenza or other respiratory infections, the MSM’s insistence that C19 is the only story doesn’t stack up. Something else is happening too.

ONS reported all cause mortality 2020 to date [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Frankly, we have no idea how many people have actually died from C19. Nor does the UK State.

Speaking on the 18th March the UK’s Chief Scientific Officer, former GlaxoSmithKline head of research and development, Sir Patrick Valance, clarified the situation for the British people. He stated:

It is worth remembering again that the ONS rates are people who’ve got COVID on their death certificates. It doesn’t mean they were necessarily infected because many of them haven’t been tested. So we just need to understand the difference.”

The difference appears to be that the C19 is the first disease in history from which you can officially die without any firm evidence that you actually had it.

The symptoms of C19 are very hard to distinguish from symptoms of other respiratory infections, such as influenza and the common cold. Diagnoses from symptoms alone seems even more unreliable than the RT-PCR test. Yet the ONS confirmed this is how C19 can be identified as a cause of death:

A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required.”

This is a consequence of the State’s advice to doctors which informs them:

if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID 19 infection….it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death.”

As recorded C19 mortality shows a decline, once again, the state is changing the way statistics are recorded. It has now asked the Care Quality Commission (CQC) to record more suspected cases from social care settings. Speaking on the April 14th a CQC spokesperson reportedly said:

From this week, the death notifications we collect from providers will allow them to report whether the death was of a person with suspected or confirmed Covid-19.”

If the system for recording hospital C19 deaths is questionable the one suggested by the CQC for care homes is downright bizarre. At the request of the State the CQC have asked non medically trained care home providers to report, what they suspect, are C19 cases. These figures will then be added to the claimed C19 mortality figures.

The lack of testing in care settings suggest the CQC will be adding far more suspected cases to the ONS statistics than confirmed. Care homes, other than nursing homes, do not typically retain medically trained staff. The vast majority of those who suspect C19 from care homes won’t be basing their suspicions on qualified medical opinions.

The claimed C19 mortality figures are so disparate they have become practically worthless from a statistical perspective. Even if we accept all reported C19 deaths resulted from it, which is a very long stretch, clearly something else is also pushing up excess mortality in England and Wales.

Over the two week period of weeks 14 and 15, of the 14,078 additional deaths, 8189 people lost their lives due to something other than just C19. We don’t yet know what other factors may be playing a part in the increase. All we can say is that excess mortality was unusually high and, at most, plausibly claimed C19 deaths accounted for less than 42% of those deaths.

So what other changes may have impacted mortality this year? One in particular stands out. The lockdown itself.

Are we starting to see the consequences? Could we call this LOKIN-20?

The evidence strongly suggests that possibility.

LOKIN-20 DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTS THE MOST VULNERABLE

LOKIN-20 appears to be the increased health risk caused by the lockdown regime. Those most at risk from LOKIN-20 are the same people who are at highest risk from C19. This additional “wave” of mortality, as a direct consequence of the lockdown, has recently been highlighted by NHS data analysts Edge Health.

Based upon ONS weekly figures, their comparative analysis of excess mortality and A&E attendance highlighted the significant impact of LOKIN-20. Speaking of an initial second and then third wave of mortality, from the impact of the lockdown, the co-founder of Edge Health George Batchelor said:

“If projected forwards, these numbers get so large it is hard to relate to them on a personal level. Unlike the current peaks, this third wave may be spread out over a longer period of time. But make no mistake this could be could be a very deadly wave.”

Edge Health Analysis [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Those who require home care, vulnerable adults in care settings and older people in care homes, have been all but abandoned by the State. This is a direct result of its counterproductive lockdown regime. Dying from systemic neglect appears to be a symptom of LOKIN-20.

During the alleged response to the C19 pandemic you might imagine the State would streamline vulnerable people’s access to potentially lifesaving medical interventions. However, it has done the precise opposite.

Spreading disinformation, the MSM reported that there were  7,500 C19 deaths in care homes in weeks 14 and 15. This was fake news.

Of the 7,500 excess care home deaths only 1,500 were attributed to C19. Analysis by the Health Service Journal (HSJ) found that 80% of these people probably died from something else.

They identified 6000 people, without diagnosed C19, who had died in care or at home. Were it not for the lockdown these people would otherwise have gone to hospital.

The HSJ assumed these people would have died anyway, and they may well be right. But who knows how many would still be with us had they received the hospital care they needed.

This appears to be just one of the health consequences of the States lockdown regime. It seems to be precipitating vulnerable people’s deaths in a variety of ways.

During the same period the NHS issued guidance which stated care home residents should not be conveyed to hospital. At the same time ambulance response times increased dramatically. Being unable to get emergency medical support when you need it is another apparent LOKIN-20 symptom.

Rather than more closely monitoring care homes and isolating vulnerable people from infection, the State decided not to bother. The care industry has been calling for widespread testing and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) since the start of the outbreak. So far neither the testing nor the PPE has materialised.

There is currently considerable capacity within the NHS for the people dying in care homes to be treated in hospital. The State continues to build Nightingale Hospitals across the country, most of which are completely empty . While we are misled into believing people are dying in their many thousands in care homes from C19, it appears most are dying from a lack of treatment from every condition other than C19.

Instead of providing medical treatment there are widespread reports of residents having “do not attempt resuscitation” (DNAR) notices attached to their care plans by visiting NHS practitioners. Other more vulnerable adults, such as those with learning difficulties, who frequently have additional comorbidities, are also effectively being told to drop dead.

The UK’s home care industry, providing care to older people living in their own homes, warns that many providers are unable to cope with the additional costs imposed upon them by the lockdown regime.

Raina Summerson, the chief executive of one of England’s largest home care provider Agincare said:

“With a lack of funding and sky-high costs of PPE, there will be providers who go bust….Overnight, local authorities will have the responsibility of picking up care for bankrupt providers but will not have resources to do so. It could well mean people left without care and, in the worst-case scenarios, falling through the cracks and dying alone at home.”

The UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock recently made the magnanimous gesture of allowing families to see their loved ones who were dying of C19 in care homes. Whether that offer extends to the families of the majority who are seemingly dying from a lack of medical treatment isn’t clear.

Meanwhile, under his watch, either by design or rank ineptitude, the UK State has effectively created what appears to be a euthanasia program. His platitudes are grotesque.

LOKIN-20 IS EVERYWHERE

Accident and Emergency attendance has dropped to a record low while the percentage of admissions following attendance have risen to a record high. This means people are presenting to A&E for suspected C19 but little else. However, given the dramatic increase in ambulance response times, perhaps many are simply not making it to A&E alive.

Dr Katherine Henderson, the President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, stated:

We are concerned that this drop in attendance may mean that people with serious health problems are avoiding going to their emergency department for fear of getting coronavirus….Even before Covid-19, we knew that patients were getting sicker – people are living longer and acquiring more health problems……The most important thing the public can do at the moment is to stay indoors and follow the government’s advice…..But do seek medical help if you need it – don’t stay at home with a heart attack out of fear.”

Dr Katherine Henderson

I think we can all agree that the State and the MSM have ramped up fear of C19 to quite extraordinary levels. As we have discussed, the medical and scientific justification for this is largely absent. The propaganda seems primarily designed to justify the lockdown regime.

It is absurd for the State and senior health professionals to now express concern that people aren’t going to hospital when they need to. Of course they aren’t.

To claim this was unforeseen is ridiculous. The whole UK propaganda narrative has urged people both to be terrified of a flu-like illness and stay away from health services to “protect the NHS.” The first annual increase in coronary heart disease mortality in the UK, following nearly two decades of steady reductions in the UK, was noted last year, before LOKIN-20 began.

The former president of the Society for Acute Medicine Dr Nick Scriven stated:

“The biggest fear is people sitting at home ill and not attending A&E […] people feeling sick at home or having a heart attack and not coming to hospital as they are frightened…We have seen a few sick young people just sitting at home for five or six days getting worse and worse”.

The president of the British Cardiovascular Society Simon Ray stated:

“It seems there has been a uniform reduction in hospital attendances for heart attacks…..it’s around 40% down in terms of callouts for emergency treatment for heart attacks….There also seems to be substantial reduction in referrals in for acute coronary syndrome….A number of units have also reported people presenting late with complications due to having a heart attack that we don’t normally see. The concern is people sitting out symptoms rather than calling help.”

It is clear, people with acute need for cardiovascular treatment are not presenting to hospital as they otherwise would. Fear driven reluctance to access health services, when they are most needed, appears to be another symptom of LOKIN-20.

Around 170,000 people die every year from cardiovascular disease in the UK. A 40% reduction in callouts present a potential health crisis which dwarfs any perceived risk from C19.

This is entirely due to the lockdown. Part of what we might call the LOKIN-20 condition.

There is no “surge” in C19 patients and there are more empty hospital beds than ever before. Yet the risk to cancer patients from withheld treatment has increased significantly during the same period. Thanks to LOKIN-20.

This prompted Gordon Wishart, Professor of Cancer Surgery at Anglia Ruskin School of Medicine, to write to State officials urging the rapid reestablishment of access to screening and treatment for cancer patients. He stated:

We pushed the panic button and there was a knee-jerk reaction when it was thought there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths from Covid […] However, in the event it seems we are at or near the peak and that capacity has not been needed […] We have the worst cancer survival rates compared with many of our European neighbours […] We are not in a position to cope with any increased demand at the end of lockdown.”

A leading heart surgeon, Professor Stephen Westaby, said:

…We could see thousands of deaths from heart disease and cancer over the next six months. Their families will never forget this. Neither China nor Italy stopped treating these conditions despite the chaos there earlier this year. It’s bizarre.”

How many of the additional deaths we are seeing now are caused by LOKIN-20?

Early indications from the ONS suggest the lockdown regime is having a considerable additional impact upon the nation’s health.  Approximately 84% of people surveyed stated they were worried about C19. Nearly half reported an increase in anxiety levels.

ONS Statistics on LOKIN-20 Impact Upon Mental Health In The UK [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Anxiety increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and a range of other health conditions. Studies have shown a clear link between increased levels of anxiety and depression in children and adolescents. LOKIN-20 is seemingly creating a mental health crisis too.

Depression often has a lifelong impact and substance misuse, domestic abuse, low income and other comorbidities are all frequent consequences. The head of the department of psychiatry at the University of Cambridge Professor Ed Bullmore reported:

The pandemic is clearly having a major social and psychological impact on the whole population, increasing unemployment, separating families and various other changes in the way that we live that we know are generally major psychological risk factors for anxiety, depression and self-harm.”

However, it is not the pandemic that is “increasing unemployment” and “separating families” but rather the baseless lockdown regime of the State.

The kind of economic devastation caused by the lockdown regime, unlike C19, is genuinely unprecedented. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) predict a 35% drop in the UK’s GDP with an additional 2 million job losses. For some reason they envisage the UK economy will instantly recover from this hammer blow. Others are far less confident.

The Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) predict that nearly one quarter of UK jobs (more than 6.5 million) will be lost thanks to the lockdown. Failing to see the “bounce back” predicted by the OBR they state:

Our baseline scenario predicts an overall contraction in GDP and employment of around 20%.”

ISER predictions [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Whether the OBR or the ISER predictions are accurate it is obvious that the economic and social impacts of the lockdown regime will be catastrophic. Social deprivations and poverty, already on the rise before the alleged C19 pandemic, are set to soar. The link between economic deprivation and mortality is not in doubt.

UK Government Life Expectancy Statistics [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Between 2001 and 2016 economic and social deprivation in England consistently accounted for a staggering 9.3 year average reduced life expectancy for males and, by 2016, shortened women’s lives by 7.4 years. Millions of lives will be cut short by LOKIN-20.

It is a very sad reality to acknowledge that the loss of life from COVID-19 is as nothing by comparison. LOKIN-20 won’t end in a few weeks. It will continue for years to come. The longer the State persists with its destructive lockdown regime the worse will be the consequences of LOKIN-20.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 06:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2xpMIrs Tyler Durden

Beef Prices Soar To Record High As Meatpacking Plants Shutter

Beef Prices Soar To Record High As Meatpacking Plants Shutter

Wholesale American beef prices jumped 6% to a record high of $330.82 per 100 pounds, a 62% increase from the lows in February, according to Bloomberg, citing new USDA data.

The surge in beef prices comes at a time when the nation’s food supply chain network has been severely damaged by meatpacking plants going offline due to virus-related shutdowns and worker shortage. Bloomberg highlights the latest plant closures in the map below:

Soaring food inflation came one day after President Trump said he would be issuing an executive order  to address meat shortages.

“Because of the virus, meat slaughtering is 40% below where it needs to be to handle all of the animals coming to market, said Arlan Suderman,” chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone.

“Processing plants were generally in favor of the executive order that would give them liability cover when reopening,” Suderman said. “Yet, the order still does not solve the problem of employee absenteeism.” At least 20 workers in meat and food processing have died and 5,000 have tested positive or forced to self-quarantine due to coronavirus, according to the United Food and Commercial Workers International union.

Just days ago, Tyson Foods warned in a full-page ad in the New York Times on Sunday that the “food supply chain is breaking.”

And with tens of millions of Americans out of work, a crashed economy that is plunging into depression, and rapid food inflation — this could all suggest that the evolution of the virus crisis is not just an economic crisis but also social instabilities are ahead.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 06:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3aL5dE9 Tyler Durden

New WHO Guidelines Encourage European Kids Under 4 Be Taught “Masturbation” & “Gender Identity”

New WHO Guidelines Encourage European Kids Under 4 Be Taught “Masturbation” & “Gender Identity”

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

WHO guidelines for sex education recommend that children aged 0-4 be taught about “masturbation” and “gender identity.”

The World Health Organization’s ‘Standards for Sexuality Education in Europe: A framework for policymakers, educational and health authorities and specialists’, advises children be taught about sexually pleasuring themselves and transgenderism before they’ve even fully learned to talk.

The WHO advises that children aged 0-4 are given “information about enjoyment and pleasure when touching one’s body… masturbation.”

Toddlers are also to be encouraged to “gain an awareness of gender identity” and given “the right to explore gender identities.”

In the ages 4-6 bracket, educators are urged to “give information about same-sex relationships” and “help children develop respect for different norms regarding sexuality.”

Of course, in any sane world, no child of this age should be exposed to any kind of information about sex whatsoever.

Despite them being complicit in China’s cover-up of the coronavirus outbreak, the media has held up the WHO as an organization beyond reproach which cannot be questioned.

Social media networks are removing material and banning people who criticize the World’s Health Organization’s guidelines.

Given that the global health body is pushing such sickness onto toddlers, the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw funding is looking better every day.

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Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 05:30

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Scientists Find Coronavirus Can Linger In The Air Of Crowded Spaces Longer Than We Thought

Scientists Find Coronavirus Can Linger In The Air Of Crowded Spaces Longer Than We Thought

As the novel coronavirus pandemic draws inexorably closer to the 3 million mark, scientists are scrambling to understand the mechanics that drive viral transmission from person to person. Unfortunately, studies have produced sometimes conflicting results.

Yesterday, we noted a study by an Italian researcher who found evidence of coronavirus genetic material on tiny air pollution particles, raising questions about how far the virus can travel through the air, and whether higher air pollution levels might be correlated with deeper viral penetration in a given community.

Previously, scientists suspected that only relatively large globules of saliva – like those produced by a spit-talker – could easily infect another individual since they’re too large to get caught up in natural air flow and will likely land on a person’s clothes, or the floor. Smaller particles, known as ‘aerosols’, were likely too small to successfully transmit the virus to another person, according to a NYT rundown of possible means of infection.

As confusion about the virus and its behavior reigns, Bloomberg reported on a new study by a pair of Chinese scientists showing that the virus appears to linger in the air longer than previously thought. If these findings are eventually confirmed, they would directly contradict a WHO ‘recommendation’ that only health-care workers need to wear facemasks – guidance that has already been dismissed by the US and other member states.

Studies carried out at two hospitals in Wuhan found the largest concentrations of the virus in the hospital toilets and in rooms where nurses and doctors change out of their medical scrubs. But scientists detected at least some ambient levels of the virus in most of the hospital rooms it examined. The study was published Monday in the journal Nature Research. Like with other ‘aerosol’ studies involving SARS-CoV-2, researchers didn’t seek to establish whether the airborne particles could cause infections.

The study was published in the Journal of Natural Research.

At two hospitals in Wuhan, China, researchers found bits of the virus’s genetic material floating in the air of hospital toilets, an indoor space housing large crowds, and rooms where medical staff take off protective gear. The study, published Monday in the journal Nature Research, didn’t seek to establish whether the airborne particles could cause infections.

The question of how readily the new virus can spread through the air has been a matter of debate. The World Health Organization has said the risk is limited to specific circumstances, pointing to an analysis of more than 75,000 cases in China in which no airborne transmission was reported.

To create a point of reference for the hospital studies, researchers also measured ambient aerosol virus levels in places like supermarkets or Chinese apartment buildings. Here, they found, concentrations of the virus were much lower.

If there’s anything that can be extrapolated in terms of recommendations for public behavior, it’s that next time you use a public restroom, be absolutely sure to wash your hands thoroughly and avoid touching your face after.

Amercans’ No. 1 complaint about the government’s response to the outbreak has been confusion as experts and officials make different – sometimes contradictory – recommendations. One of the most controversial pieces of advice is the recommendation that people wear masks out in public, as people struggle to grasp that the initial recommendation not to wear masks was made to preserve dwindling stocks for health-care workers.

While there’s no direct evidence from this study about whether these particles are infectious, we suspect most people would rather not be exposed to potentially dense quantities of virus-carrying aerosols without wearing an N95.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 04:55

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The Largest Ozone Hole Ever Recorded Over North Pole Has Finally “Healed Itself” & Closed

The Largest Ozone Hole Ever Recorded Over North Pole Has Finally “Healed Itself” & Closed

Authored by Elias Marat via TheMindUnleashed.com,

The massive ozone hole that formed over the North Pole has finally closed, scientists have announced.

Researchers from the European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) who were tracking the record-breaking ozone hole over the Arctic tweeted last Thursday:

“The unprecedented 2020 Northern Hemisphere ozone hole has come to an end.”

The hole, which was the single largest such ozone hole ever detected in the arctic, first opened in late March as unusual wind conditions trapped frigid air over the North Pole for several consecutive weeks.

However, scientists took pains to point out that the closing of the hole has nothing to do with drop in emissions recorded across the world as a result of lockdown measures meant to curb the coronavirus.

On Twitter, the group wrote:

“COVID-19 and the associated lockdowns probably had nothing to do with this.

“It’s been driven by an unusually strong and long-lived polar vortex, and isn’t related to air quality changes.”

Live Science reports that a polar vortex is comprised of powerful winds that create a circular cage of cold air that leads to the formation of high-altitude clouds in the region. The clouds mixed with harmful human-made chemicals such as chlorine and bromine, which migrated into the stratosphere and accumulated inside the vortex.

The chemicals then ate away at surrounding gases, thinning the ozone layer and forming a huge hole approximately three times the size of Greenland in the atmosphere, according to a European Space Agency (ESA) statement.

The ozone layer is the layer in the Earth’s stratosphere that is responsible for absorbing the ultraviolet (UV) rays of the Sun, effectively filtering out radiation that causes skin cancer among humans, destroys crops, and disrupts marine ecosystems among other devastating effects on the planet.

The ozone layer has faced decades of degradation thanks to the use of harmful chemical compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons, halons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, and other organic and synthetic (human-made) ozone-depleting compounds that are commonly used in refrigerators, aerosols, and a range of industrial processes.

The startling decline of the ozone layer became such a dire matter of concern that in 1987, governments agreed to the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty meant to phase out the production and use of ozone-depleting chemicals.

However, ozone holes have continued to form annually in the Antarctic due to a failure to sufficiently check the amount of human-made chemicals that continue to make their way into the stratosphere. Scientists believe that this will remain a seasonal phenomenon in the future.

In October, the ozone hole shrank to its smallest size ever recorded, mainly due to the unusually hot climate conditions above Antarctica caused by global warming.

In the Arctic, polar vortexes tend to be far weaker, which means that the conditions which eat away at ozone gases aren’t typically found—hence the “unprecedented” nature of this ozone hole.

According to a 2018 study by the World Meteorological Organization, the southern ozone hole has been shrinking at a rate of 1 percent to 3 percent per decade since 2000, meaning that it won’t heal entirely until about 2050. Credit is also due to the Montreal Protocol for the apparent healing of the ozone layer.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 04:20

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As Mortality Rate Spikes, Bankers In UK Won’t Return To ‘The City’ Any Time Soon

As Mortality Rate Spikes, Bankers In UK Won’t Return To ‘The City’ Any Time Soon

From the very beginning, Wall Street banks were reluctant to let their most-critical front office employees – especially traders – work from home despite the obvious risks presented by the coronavirus. Even after a whole floor of JPM traders in New York were infected by a couple of coworkers, Goldman and JPM were rumored to still be pressuring employees to make sometimes illicit appearances in the flesh, and when working from home has been the only option, bankers have reportedly been putting in more additional hours as managers assume they’re available at all hours.

While the Wall Street culture that revolves around ‘the floor’ will likely endure once the lockdowns are lifted in the US, some of the largest banks in the UK are insisting that they won’t recall employees to the office until things are 100% safe. And some may never return, having proved that they’re equally efficient working from home. As Bloomberg put it in its headline: “Bankers Aren’t Returning To Skyscrapers Any Time Soon, If Ever.”

The reason for this? During Barclays post-earnings call earlier, CEO Jes Staley said warehousing thousands of workers in office buildings and skyscrapers might be a “thing of the past” – especially if social distancing means only two people can ride an elevator at a time for the next 2 years.

Staley’s concerns echoed those of several rivals, Bloomberg said.

“There will be a long-term adjustment about how we think about our locations,” Staley said on a conference call after the bank reported earnings on Wednesday. Branches might work as alternative sites for investment bankers once staff are cleared to stop working from home, he said.

It’s possible this is a function of the UK’s significantly-higher mortality rate, which just took another tick upward on Wednesday after thousands of new home deaths were reported, as well as the political backlash over Boris Johnson’s initial response (based on recommendations from government scientists that were later determined to be flawed) which has made the PM reluctant to release concrete guidelines about his plans to reopen the economy.

Because in New York City and most places, financial services employees – from analysts, to traders to bank tellers – are considered essential. And while many of the white collar workers in the industry have been working from home with little issue, traders in NYC have discussed being pressured to take the subway to the office and take other steps that the employees said would leave them at risk of being infected.

JP Morgan said earlier this month that it had developed a plan to start returning some staff to its offices. The bank has said it’s exploring the idea of hiring “door attendants” to push elevator buttons and open doors for employees.

Meanwhile, Goldman is reportedly trying to develop a system for employees to open doors without actually touching them, perhaps by stocking towelettes.

Regardless of what happens in Europe and the US, right now, the first global financial hub to reopen will probably be Hong Kong, where most shops and bank branches have reopened, and life is rapidly settling back into its normal rhythms.

It’s also one reason to suspect that the slump in London’s commercial property market might be even more disastrous than in the US, although granted financial services is just one industry.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 03:45

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UK Study Shows 18,000 Extra Cancer Deaths Possible Within A Year Due To COVID-19 Focus

UK Study Shows 18,000 Extra Cancer Deaths Possible Within A Year Due To COVID-19 Focus

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A new study concludes that there could be 18,000 extra cancer deaths in the UK within a year because victims are not able to get screenings and treatment due to the focus on COVID-19.

“Delays in diagnosing and treating cancer could hurt the survival chances of thousands of people across England, joint research by University College London (UCL) and the Health Data Research Hub for Cancer (DATA-CAN) suggests,” reports RT.

“Scientists analyzed data from more than 3.5 million patients and discovered that the Covid-19 outbreak could indirectly lead to more than 17,900 extra cancer deaths within a year, including 6,270 fatal cases in newly diagnosed cancer patients.”

The study discovered an 76 per cent average drop in early cancer diagnosis referrals and a chemotherapy attendance reduction of 60 per cent in England.

Cancer patients are avoiding hospitals partly due to fears over catching COVID-19 and partly because they were told health workers would be “overwhelmed” by coronavirus, something that never happened.

Indeed, acute hospital beds in the UK are four times emptier than normal and overspill hospitals are being being used.

Many stroke and heart attack victims are also routinely waiting 2 hours for an ambulance to arrive while 2,300 cancer diagnoses are being missed each week because they are not being referred for urgent scans and tests.

As we previously highlighted, Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer at Kings College, London, also warned that excess cancer deaths could eventually outstrip COVID-19 deaths.

The number of deaths due to the disruption of cancer services is likely to outweigh the number of deaths from the coronavirus itself over the next five years,” he said.

“The cessation and delay of cancer care will cause considerable avoidable suffering,” said Sullivan. “Cancer screening services have stopped, which means we will miss our chance to catch many cancers when they are treatable and curable, such as cervical, bowel and breast.”

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Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 03:10

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As Italian Crime Drops By 66.6% During Lockdown, Loan Sharks Focus Lasers

As Italian Crime Drops By 66.6% During Lockdown, Loan Sharks Focus Lasers

After the Italian government placed the entire country under a coronavirus lockdown, the crime rate dropped by 2/3 (or 66.6%, as Reuters reports) vs. the same month last year, according to a Wednesday statement by the interior ministry.

There were 68,069 crimes registered across the country in March vs. 203,723 the previous year.

The ministry did not provide details, noting only that domestic violence fell 37.4%, a smaller drop than the overall crime rate, while robberies at pharmacies, one of the few businesses allowed to stay open, dropped 28.2%. –Reuters

That said, the ministry also warned that once restrictions are lifted – which could be as soon as Monday – organized gangs could try to take advantage of struggling Italians.

To that end, reports of criminal loan-sharking jumped 9.1% according to the report, indicating that those who cannot obtain traditional financing are turning to illegal lending networks to make ends meet.

Earlier this month, prosecutors told Reuters that Italian mafia clans were taking advantage of the coronavirus outbreak to ingratiate themselves with low income families, while The Guardian reported nearly three weeks ago that videos have surfaced of known Mafia gangs distributing free food to quarantined families who have run out of cash.

“For over a month, shops, cafés, restaurants and pubs have been closed,” said Nicola Gratteri – head of the Catanzaro prosecutor’s office and antimafia investigator according to The Guardian. “Millions of people work in the grey economy, which means that they haven’t received any income in more than a month and have no idea when they might return to work. The government is issuing so-called shopping vouchers to support people. If the state doesn’t step in soon to help these families, the mafia will provide its services, imposing their control over people’s lives.

To date, Italy has suffered more than 27,000 deaths and over 200,000 infections.

The Interior Ministry also warned that the mafia would try to tap into recovery funds offered by the EU to revive the death-spiraling economy, which Reuters notes is expected to be the worst recession wince WWII.

This may favor corruption and illicit relations between entrepreneurs, public officials and criminal organizations,” the Ministry said, adding that it had beefed up police monitoring to try and prevent the mafia from taking advantage of the situation. In particular, ” the agro-food chain, health infrastructure, the supply of medical equipment, the hotel tourism sector, catering and the retail distribution sectors of small and medium-sized companies” will be kept under close watch.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 02:35

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77th Brigade: Is British Military Waging An Information War On Its Own Population?

77th Brigade: Is British Military Waging An Information War On Its Own Population?

Authored by Mike Robinson via 21stCenturyWire.com,

Last Wednesday, during the daily UK Government Coronavirus livestream, the head of the British Army, General Sir Nick Carter, bragged:

We’ve been involved with the Cabinet Office Rapid Response Unit, with our 77th Brigade helping to quash rumours from misinformation, but also to counter disinformation. Between three and four thousand of our people have been involved, with around twenty thousand available the whole time at high readiness.

To understand the implications of this statement, we have to go back to 2018, when Carter gave a speech to the Royal United Services Institute.

“In our 77th Brigade,” he said, “… we have got some remarkable talent when it comes to social media, production design, and indeed Arabic poetry. Those sorts of skills we can’t afford to retain in the Regular component but they are the means of us delivering capability in a much more imaginative way than we might have been able to do in the past.”

77th Brigade

Previously known as the ‘Security Assistance Group’, 77th Brigade was stood up in 2015 as part of ‘Army 2020’. The Security Assistance Group had been established following the amalgamation of the Media Operations Group, 15 Psychological Operations Group, Security Capacity Building Team, and the Military Stabilisation and Support Group.

77th Brigade is described on their website as being about ‘information and outreach’. But what does that mean? General Carter again:

We also, though, need to continue to improve our ability to fight on this new battlefield, and I think it’s important that we build on the excellent foundation we’ve created for Information Warfare through our 77th Brigade, which is now giving us the capability to compete in the war of narratives at the tactical level. [Emphasis mine]

It is in this context, then, that Carter’s words from last week’s livestream should be viewed. Carter has acknowledged that the British military is waging war on a section of its own population.

‘Rapid Response Unit’

Carter mentioned working with the Cabinet Office’s ‘Rapid Response Unit’. Established in April 2018 and also known as the ‘fake news unit’, the Rapid Response Unit was given an initial six months’ funding. It brought together a “team of analysts, data scientists and media and digital experts,” armed with cutting-edge software, to “work round the clock to monitor online breaking news stories and social media discussion.”

According to the RRU’s head, Alex Aiken:

The unit’s round the clock monitoring service has identified several stories of concern during the pilot, ranging from the chemical weapons attack in Syria to domestic stories relating to the NHS and crime.

For example, following the Syria airstrikes, the unit identified that a number of false narratives from alternative news sources were gaining traction online. These “alt-news” sources are biased and rely on sensationalism rather than facts to pique readers’ interest.

Due to the way that search engine algorithms work, when people searched for information on the strikes, these unreliable sources were appearing above official UK government information. In fact, no government information was appearing on the first 15 pages of Google results. We know that search is an excellent indicator of intention. It can reflect bias in information received from elsewhere.

The unit therefore ensured those using search terms that indicated bias – such as ‘false flag’ – were presented with factual information on the UK’s response. The RRU improved the ranking from below 200 to number 1 within a matter of hours.

The Rapid Response Unit was given permanent funding in February 2019.

Three months following the establishment of the Rapid Response Unit, Theresa May attended the G7 summit in Quebec, Canada.

There she announced the establishment of “a new Rapid Response Mechanism“, following Britain’s proposal for “a new, more formalised approach to tackling foreign interference across the G7” at the G7 Foreign Minister’s meeting the previous month.

The agreement sends “a strong message that interference by Russia and other foreign states would not be tolerated,” she said.

“The Rapid Response Mechanism,” she continued, “will support preventative and protective cooperation between G7 countries, as well as post-incident responses”, including:

  • Co-ordinated attribution of hostile activity

  • Joint work to assert a common narrative and response

The UK government’s Rapid Response, then, is to create international agreement on a common narrative (via the ‘mechanism’), and then wage an information war on its own people to make sure that narrative is protected in the media (via the ‘unit’).

Fusion

During Carter’s 2018 RUSI speech, he explained the role of the mainstream press in “setting up a well-informed public debate”. He spoke about “political warfare” being war by other means, and he said that winning that war would require a “fusion” approach.

Here, he is referring to the Fusion Doctrine, which was launched during the Theresa May regime, as part of the 2015 National Security Capability Review.

“Many capabilities,” it said, “that can contribute to national security lie outside traditional national security departments and so we need stronger partnerships across government and with the private and third sectors.”

It should come as no surprise, then, that the Cabinet Office’s Rapid Response Unit is not only working with the military’s 77th Brigade, but is “leading on the ‘rebuttal of false narratives’ as part of the unit … [that also] involves the Home Office, DCMS, Number 10 and other agencies.”

The Corona-Narrative

General Carter said his 77th Brigade is “helping to quash rumours from misinformation, but also to counter disinformation.”

What misinformation and disinformation is 77th Brigade helping to quash? How much of the ‘disinformation’ originates from 77th Brigade in the first place?

Part of 77th Brigade’s role is:

‘Monitoring and evaluating the information environment within boundaries or operational area’

They not only ‘counter’ disinformation, but also watch social media, analysing how disinformation, including their own, spreads; mapping the internet and the networks of people sharing content between each other.

And for that, they have thousands deployed, and tens of thousands in reserve, not only in 77th Brigade directly, but right across government and the third sector.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 02:00

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