Jim Rogers: "Be Worried & Be Careful…The Emerging Market Crisis Is Not Over Yet"

UBS’ George Magnus believes the next global economic “crisis”‘ lightning rod will be the emerging markets and as Jim Rogers tells BoomBust’s Erin Ade in this brief interview, “the emerging market crisis has only just begun.” While Rogers is careful to add that there are lots of emerging markets – “some better than others;” he warns that “there are some serious problems out there and they are going to get worse.” Who is to blame? The Fed, of course – “by driving rates so low and providing as much liquidity as anyone in the world could want, the EMs have borrowed to cover up their real problems… be worried.

90 Seconds of simple clarity

From 17:00 to 18:30

 

 

Transcript:

For Turkey, Indonesia, India, Brazil – this is not over yet – “they have serious problems and are not being resolved.”

 

The major problem is the Federal Reserve: with interest rates at such low levels, people can borrow lots of money – and America is printing a lot of money so there’s plenty to go around

 

A lot of countries have borrowed money at cheap rates which covers up their problems… they haven’t addressed their real problems; and so now, we have a huge problem facing us and it’s going to get worse.

 

This is not over yet – you should be worried, be careful, and be prepared

Obligatory Erin Ade collage:


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1bLMtCY Tyler Durden

Jim Rogers: “Be Worried & Be Careful…The Emerging Market Crisis Is Not Over Yet”

UBS’ George Magnus believes the next global economic “crisis”‘ lightning rod will be the emerging markets and as Jim Rogers tells BoomBust’s Erin Ade in this brief interview, “the emerging market crisis has only just begun.” While Rogers is careful to add that there are lots of emerging markets – “some better than others;” he warns that “there are some serious problems out there and they are going to get worse.” Who is to blame? The Fed, of course – “by driving rates so low and providing as much liquidity as anyone in the world could want, the EMs have borrowed to cover up their real problems… be worried.

90 Seconds of simple clarity

From 17:00 to 18:30

 

 

Transcript:

For Turkey, Indonesia, India, Brazil – this is not over yet – “they have serious problems and are not being resolved.”

 

The major problem is the Federal Reserve: with interest rates at such low levels, people can borrow lots of money – and America is printing a lot of money so there’s plenty to go around

 

A lot of countries have borrowed money at cheap rates which covers up their problems… they haven’t addressed their real problems; and so now, we have a huge problem facing us and it’s going to get worse.

 

This is not over yet – you should be worried, be careful, and be prepared

Obligatory Erin Ade collage:


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1bLMtCY Tyler Durden

"If She Bleeds, She Can't Lead" Pro-Nuclear Abe-Loyalist Elected Tokyo Governor

For a few brief weeks, there was hope among the millions of Japanese that do not love Shinzo Abe as two former premiers entered the race for governor of Tokyo on a zero nuclear-power platform. Today, as The Economist notes, those hopes melted away as quickly as the snow which had blanketed Tokyo on the eve of the vote. The race was won handily by Yoichi Masuzoe – the "women are abnormal during their periods" pro-nuclear, Abe-apologist that personifies Japan’s gender gap. Perhaps Subculturist sums it up best: once again, Japan has shown us that with enough voter apathy (3rd lowest turnout on record), a compliant media, and the connections and funding of the nuclear industry, that any middle-aged asshole guy can be the leader of one of Japan’s largest city-states.

The Results and the consequences… (via The Economist),

The result’s chief significance is that it clears the way for Mr Abe to press ahead with switching on some of Japan’s idled nuclear reactors, possibly as early as this summer. The crusade by the ever-popular Mr Koizumi, just under three years on from the 2011 catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, had unnerved his former party. In the election for the upper house of parliament in July 2013, Tokyo elected two vehemently anti-nuclear MPs, showing the strength of opposition. Yet the anti-nuclear camp remained divided for the governor’s race. A socialist lawyer, Kenji Utsunomiya, who also opposed a return to nuclear, drew away votes from Mr Hosokawa. Turnout was low, owing to the snow.

And an alternative take (via Japan Subculture Research Center),

The man who personifies Japan’s gender gap, former health minister Yoichi Masuzoe, 65, with the support of the Liberal Democrat Party, the nuclear energy industry, and the Sokka Gakkai fan club (Komeito),  today reportedly won a four-year term as governor of Tokyo. He beat out his two nearest rivals who had said Japan should phase out nuclear energy. His victory was assured with a voter turn-out rate of roughly 34% , a lapdog media that is in love with advertising money from Tokyo Electric Power Company, and preceded by Tokyo’s worst snowfall in over a decade.  (As if it were a sign of things to come…)

 

Shortly after polling closed at 8pm, the Japanese media, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe controlled NHK (aka A.B.E News) reported that he had won by a sizeable margin, based on exit polls, wishful thinking, and haste to go home early.

 

“Women are not normal when they are on their period. They are abnormal.
You can’t possibly let them make critical decisions about the country [during their periods], such as
whether or not to go to war.” – Masuzoe in the October 1989 issue of the magazine BIGMAN

 

 

With this victory,  Mr Masuzoe will be Tokyo’s “face” for the next four years–even if that face resembles that of a horse with mange. 

 

Because of his rabid support of nuclear power as an energy source, Mr Masuzoe’s election is expected to spur  the Liberal Democrat Party’s efforts to restart the country’s idled nuclear reactors. It will also be a boon for politically connected construction firms wishing to get a big share of the unneeded 2020 Olympics construction and plans to demolish interesting parts of the city in order to create a money draining infrastructure that will temporarily benefit cronies of Abe and the Liberal Democrat Party.

 

 

In 1989 during Japan’s  so-called “Madonna Boom” when a surprising number of women became elected officials, Masuzoe stated, This is an exceptional period in history,  that’s why even these women things are showing up…but those who have been elected are all a bunch of old middle aged hags.” Well, lucky for us Japan has come a  long way since those crazy “women-in-politics” days.

 

Once again, Japan has shown us that with enough voter apathy, a compliant media, and the connections and funding of the nuclear industry, that any middle-aged asshole guy can be the leader of one of Japan’s largest city-states.

 

How bad a leader will he be? No one can for sure but one thing is certain: there are possibly 3,067 supporters of Masuzoe who are not going to get laid tonight. One can hope. (Because if there’s anyone in Japan who we’d like to see not procreating, it’s the idiots that would vote for this charlatan in the first place.)

Perhaps, though, it is time to start paying more attention to the female gender in Japan as their labor force participation is rising notably….

 

The land of the rising sons (and daughters) indeed…

 

To add to tonight's enjoyment, Japan just posted its largest BoP current account deficit ever...

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kugCMd Tyler Durden

“If She Bleeds, She Can’t Lead” Pro-Nuclear Abe-Loyalist Elected Tokyo Governor

For a few brief weeks, there was hope among the millions of Japanese that do not love Shinzo Abe as two former premiers entered the race for governor of Tokyo on a zero nuclear-power platform. Today, as The Economist notes, those hopes melted away as quickly as the snow which had blanketed Tokyo on the eve of the vote. The race was won handily by Yoichi Masuzoe – the "women are abnormal during their periods" pro-nuclear, Abe-apologist that personifies Japan’s gender gap. Perhaps Subculturist sums it up best: once again, Japan has shown us that with enough voter apathy (3rd lowest turnout on record), a compliant media, and the connections and funding of the nuclear industry, that any middle-aged asshole guy can be the leader of one of Japan’s largest city-states.

The Results and the consequences… (via The Economist),

The result’s chief significance is that it clears the way for Mr Abe to press ahead with switching on some of Japan’s idled nuclear reactors, possibly as early as this summer. The crusade by the ever-popular Mr Koizumi, just under three years on from the 2011 catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, had unnerved his former party. In the election for the upper house of parliament in July 2013, Tokyo elected two vehemently anti-nuclear MPs, showing the strength of opposition. Yet the anti-nuclear camp remained divided for the governor’s race. A socialist lawyer, Kenji Utsunomiya, who also opposed a return to nuclear, drew away votes from Mr Hosokawa. Turnout was low, owing to the snow.

And an alternative take (via Japan Subculture Research Center),

The man who personifies Japan’s gender gap, former health minister Yoichi Masuzoe, 65, with the support of the Liberal Democrat Party, the nuclear energy industry, and the Sokka Gakkai fan club (Komeito),  today reportedly won a four-year term as governor of Tokyo. He beat out his two nearest rivals who had said Japan should phase out nuclear energy. His victory was assured with a voter turn-out rate of roughly 34% , a lapdog media that is in love with advertising money from Tokyo Electric Power Company, and preceded by Tokyo’s worst snowfall in over a decade.  (As if it were a sign of things to come…)

 

Shortly after polling closed at 8pm, the Japanese media, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe controlled NHK (aka A.B.E News) reported that he had won by a sizeable margin, based on exit polls, wishful thinking, and haste to go home early.

 

“Women are not normal when they are on their period. They are abnormal.
You can’t possibly let them make critical decisions about the country [during their periods], such as
whether or not to go to war.” – Masuzoe in the October 1989 issue of the magazine BIGMAN

 

 

With this victory,  Mr Masuzoe will be Tokyo’s “face” for the next four years–even if that face resembles that of a horse with mange. 

 

Because of his rabid support of nuclear power as an energy source, Mr Masuzoe’s election is expected to spur  the Liberal Democrat Party’s efforts to restart the country’s idled nuclear reactors. It will also be a boon for politically connected construction firms wishing to get a big share of the unneeded 2020 Olympics construction and plans to demolish interesting parts of the city in order to create a money draining infrastructure that will temporarily benefit cronies of Abe and the Liberal Democrat Party.

 

 

In 1989 during Japan’s  so-called “Madonna Boom” when a surprising number of women became elected officials, Masuzoe stated, This is an exceptional period in history,  that’s why even these women things are showing up…but those who have been elected are all a bunch of old middle aged hags.” Well, lucky for us Japan has come a  long way since those crazy “women-in-politics” days.

 

Once again, Japan has shown us that with enough voter apathy, a compliant media, and the connections and funding of the nuclear industry, that any middle-aged asshole guy can be the leader of one of Japan’s largest city-states.

 

How bad a leader will he be? No one can for sure but one thing is certain: there are possibly 3,067 supporters of Masuzoe who are not going to get laid tonight. One can hope. (Because if there’s anyone in Japan who we’d like to see not procreating, it’s the idiots that would vote for this charlatan in the first place.)

Perhaps, though, it is time to start paying more attention to the female gender in Japan as their labor force participation is rising notably….

 

The land of the rising sons (and daughters) indeed…

 

To add to tonight's enjoyment, Japan just posted its largest BoP current account deficit ever...

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kugCMd Tyler Durden

About Those 2.9 Million Jobs Lost In January…

Much has been said about the January Non-farm payrolls number, which rose by 113K on expectations of a 180K increase, most of which has been focused on the US atmospheric conditions during the winter. There is a problem with those numbers: they don’t really exist (as for the non-impact of “the weather” on jobs we showed previously that the number of people “not at work due to weather” as calculated by the BLS itself. this winter was lower than 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 – so much for historic winter weather).

So what really happened in January?

For the real answer we have to go to the BLS’ non-seasonally adjusted data series. It is here that we find that in January, some 2.870 million real, actual jobs were lost, not gained. Putting this further in perspective, the number of NSA jobs losses in January 2014 was greater than in January of 2013, 2012, 2011 and tied that of 2010. In fact only during the peak of the depression in January 2009 was there a greater NSA drop in the first month of the year when 3.691 million jobs were lost.

 

So how does a loss of 2.9 million jobs become a “gain” of 113K jobs in the same month? Simple: through the magic of seasonal adjustments.

Incidentally, for all those confused, it is these same seasonal adjustments that at least on paper, are supposed to account for such things as seasons, and, well, weather. Only sometimes they apparently don’t, like right now. Which is also the reason why one can completely ignore the entire seasonal adjustment process because one after another economist is lining up to inform anyone caring to listen that the seasonal adjustment number is actually not adjusted enough.

Below we break down which jobs comprised the 2.9 million jobs lost when ignoring the ARIMA fudge factors.

On one hand the transition from 137.386 million seasonally adjusted December jobs to 137.499 million seasonally adjusted January jobs is simple: just add 113K jobs.

On the other, the one has to consider that the actual number of January 2014 jobs was a far lower 135.396 million jobs. Furthermore, one has to recall that his unadjusted number is the one impacted by the monthly Birth-Death adjustment. For those who don’t recall this nuance, here is the BLS’ explanation of this incremental adjustment factor to the final number:

There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearance on the sample frame making it available for sampling. Because new firm births generate a portion of employment growth each month, non-sampling methods must be used to estimate this growth.

 

Earlier research indicated that while both the business birth and death portions of total employment are generally significant, the net contribution is relatively small and stable. To account for this net birth/death portion of total employment, BLS uses an estimation procedure with two components: the first component excludes employment losses due to business deaths from sample-based estimation in order to offset the missing employment gains from business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based estimate procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample. This step accounts for most of the birth and death employment.

 

The second component is an ARIMA time series model designed to estimate the residual birth/death employment not accounted for by the imputation. The historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA model was derived from the UI universe micro level database, and reflects the actual residual of births and deaths over the past five years. This ARIMA model was originally applied once a year using new data to calculate the net birth/death forecasts. Effective with the release of preliminary January 2011 employment estimates in February 2011, BLS began updating the Current Employment Statistics (CES) net birth/death model component of the estimation process more frequently, generating birth/death factors on a quarterly basis instead of annually.

 

The net birth/death model component figures are unique to each month and exhibit a seasonal pattern that can result in negative adjustments in some months. These models do not attempt to correct for any other potential error sources in the CES estimates such as sampling error or design limitations. Note that the net birth/death figures are not seasonally adjusted, and are applied to the not seasonally adjusted monthly employment estimates to derive the final CES employment estimates.

Simple enough, right. Anyway, in January the Birth-Death adjustment resulted in a further 307K jobs being subtracted from the final NSA number as an intermediate adjustment step.

So what happened next? Instead of explaining, we’d rather show it:

While there are numerous other intermediary “transformational” steps designed precisely to obfuscate and baffle with BS, the bottom line is that through the magic of the BLS’ statistical gimmickry, a NSA change of -2,870K, impacted by a further -307K “Birth/Deaths” (or -3,177K total), became a positive 113K change in the seasonally adjusted jobs series, or a total “seasonal adjustment” factor of 3.290 million!

And here, keep in mind, that the Wall Street estimate for a payroll “beat” was the addition of 180K. Of course, in keeping with the above “seasonal” transformation, what this means is that instead of having added a total of 3.290 million “statistical” jobs, the Bureau simply had to bump up the “fudge factor” to 3.357K or over, to match or beat the expectations. The difference between the 3.290MM and 3.357MM numbers? 2%.

Which begs the question: why did whatever prompted the BLS to add just under 3.3 million “excel” jobs, not also prompt them to add another 57K jobs to the final adjustment number which was a minute fraction of the total fudge factor, and beat Wall Street estimates, reincarnating the narrative that the US economy is now back in “escape velocity” mode, it is “self-sustaining” and all those other spins and stories serious economists tell themselves to justify that QE has worked? Unless, it was specifically the intention of the BLS to not give such an impression.

Whether the reason was precisely to give the Fed the loophole it needs to taper the taper in a few weeks time when the latest “economic recovery” thesis crashes and burns, will be uncovered over the next several months.

Finally, for all those same very serious economists who lament the impact of the weather on the Establishment survey, and yet point to the surge in the Household Survey which “added” 638K seasonally-adjusted jobs, the unadjusted change there was a drop of 403K jobs. So there’s that.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/NqUpBd Tyler Durden

Guest Post: Low-Wage Hours At New Low As Obamacare Fines Loom

Submitted by Jed Graham via Investor's Business Daily,

Low-wage workers clocked the shortest workweek on record in December – even shorter than at the depth of the recession, new Labor Department data showed Friday.

 

The figures underscore concerns about the ObamaCare employer insurance mandate's impact on the work hours and incomes of low-wage earners.

It's impossible to know how much of the drop relates to ObamaCare, but a strong connection is possible. The workweek has been getting shorter in many of the same industries where anecdotes have piled up about employers cutting hours to evade the law's penalties.

While weather likely played some role in December, that's not the driving factor. The low-wage workweek in November had already matched the prior record low — set in July 2013, just as the Obama administration delayed the employer mandate until 2015.

Further, January's data not yet broken down by industry subgroup show that rank-and-file retail workers saw another big fall in average work hours, matching a record-low 29.7 hours a week.

In December, office supply chain Staples cut the schedules of part-time workers to a maximum of 25 hours per week, below the 30-hour threshold at which the Affordable Care Act's employer mandate kicks in.

In November, David's Bridal reportedly cut even full-time salespeople and stylists below the 30-hour mark.

ObamaCare's penalties won't apply until 2015, but they will reflect 2014 staffing levels, giving employers little time to adjust.

More Jobs, Fewer Hours

IBD's gauge of the low-wage workweek, now at 27.4 hours, includes the 30 million nonmanagers working in private industries where pay averages up to $14.50 an hour.

These industries boosted payrolls by 700,000 (nonsupervisors) in 2013, or 2.4%, but hours worked grew at half that rate. In effect, shorter hours would have explained 323,000, or 47%, of those new jobs.

Again, weather wasn't the primary factor. Even if the workweek had held steady in December, the workweek would have been responsible for one-third of the jobs added in low-wage private industries last year.

That's not to say that overall job creation is weaker than it appears. That's because the workweek has moved higher for non-low-wage workers. This group, including managers and those in higher-paying industries, is now clocking a longer week than prior to the recession.

Finding The Problem

That divergence explains why many economists and nonpartisan arbiters like the Congressional Budget Office have concluded that ObamaCare has had no impact on part-time employment. The effect doesn't show up in aggregate workforce data, but that is the wrong place to look.

The private employers for whom ObamaCare's mandate is a concern are those with a primarily low-wage workforce.

Incoming ObamaCare enrollment data show that three-fourths of subsidies are going to modest earners making less than 250% of the poverty level, or $29,175 for a single person.

ObamaCare Incentives

Businesses will face a nondeductible fine of $3,000 for each worker who receives a subsidy to buy insurance via the new exchanges. (For retailers facing a 39.2% federal and state tax rate, the fine would equal $4,930 in deductible wages.)

For employers in industries with low profit margins and modest-skill jobs, ObamaCare's costs clearly provide an incentive to cut work hours. Companies do, however, have to weigh the potential downside of shorter workweeks — lower morale and worse customer service.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that low-wage employers may be pushing full-time workers to clock more hours, even as they are limiting the size of their full-time workforce.

Still, the workweek got shorter across a broad range of low-wage industries in 2013. Average weekly hours fell 1% at supermarkets, 2% at clothing stores, 2.4% at limited-service restaurants, 3.2% among providers of home care services to the elderly and disabled, 4.2% at general merchandise stores, 7.2% at retail bakeries and 7.7% at home centers.

The data suggest that lawmakers should consider if the big minimum-wage hike on the president's agenda is compatible with ObamaCare's employer mandate. The combination would hike low-wage labor costs by up to 70% and could further encourage a part-time shift and complicate the goal of reducing inequality.

 

 

Of course, as Paul Krugman told Stephen Colbert….

 

 "I'm ok with a little bit of wealth redstribution from people who have been lucky to people who are unlucky."

Seems to sum up a lot of perspectives nowadays "lucky" taxpayers helping "unlucky" others (like "unlucky" bets on real estate derivatives, "unlucky" bets on leveraged Russian bond arbs, "unlucky" Detroit pension fund holders…)


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ku5Rcx Tyler Durden

BofAML Warns Stock Bulls: "Don't Believe The Hype"

"Stay defensive," warns BofAML's Macneil Curry. While risk assets ended last week on a very strong note, with the S&P500 putting in its best 2 day performance since October; the weight of evidence says that new S&P500 lows are coming and that risk assets should suffer in the weeks ahead. From the S&P500’s impulsive decline from 1850, to negative February seasonals, to deteriorating equity market breadth (the percent of NYSE stocks trading above their 200d avg is at its lowest since Oct'12); it should pay to remain defensive. In the week ahead we look for a top into the 1800/1823 area before the downtrend resumes for 1711/1686; and stay bullish bonds.

Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,

SP500 price action says the trend is down

Despite the impressive Thursday/Friday rally, the weight of evidence says the trend has turned lower. In addition to deteriorating breadth and negative seasonals, the decline from 1850 to 1737 was impulsive (unfolding in a non-overlapping five wave manner) which means the trend has turned lower. In the week ahead we look for a top into the 1800/1823 area before the downtrend resumes for 1711/1686.

February is bad for risk, especially after a down January

February is a month when the S&P500 tends to take a breather. Since 1950 it has averaged a return of -10bps and risen 55% of the time. HOWEVER, after a negative January the month of February turns much nastier. In such instances, it averages a decline of -1.4% and with the odds of a decline rising to 63%. BEWARE.

Stay bullish Treasuries. 5s target 1.245%/1.224%

With risk assets set to suffer further, stay bullish Treasuries. Focusing on the belly of the curve, 5yr yields remain on track to test their medium term range lows and long term pivot zone of 1.224%/1.245% before greater signs of basing emerge.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gdmW6D Tyler Durden

BofAML Warns Stock Bulls: “Don’t Believe The Hype”

"Stay defensive," warns BofAML's Macneil Curry. While risk assets ended last week on a very strong note, with the S&P500 putting in its best 2 day performance since October; the weight of evidence says that new S&P500 lows are coming and that risk assets should suffer in the weeks ahead. From the S&P500’s impulsive decline from 1850, to negative February seasonals, to deteriorating equity market breadth (the percent of NYSE stocks trading above their 200d avg is at its lowest since Oct'12); it should pay to remain defensive. In the week ahead we look for a top into the 1800/1823 area before the downtrend resumes for 1711/1686; and stay bullish bonds.

Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,

SP500 price action says the trend is down

Despite the impressive Thursday/Friday rally, the weight of evidence says the trend has turned lower. In addition to deteriorating breadth and negative seasonals, the decline from 1850 to 1737 was impulsive (unfolding in a non-overlapping five wave manner) which means the trend has turned lower. In the week ahead we look for a top into the 1800/1823 area before the downtrend resumes for 1711/1686.

February is bad for risk, especially after a down January

February is a month when the S&P500 tends to take a breather. Since 1950 it has averaged a return of -10bps and risen 55% of the time. HOWEVER, after a negative January the month of February turns much nastier. In such instances, it averages a decline of -1.4% and with the odds of a decline rising to 63%. BEWARE.

Stay bullish Treasuries. 5s target 1.245%/1.224%

With risk assets set to suffer further, stay bullish Treasuries. Focusing on the belly of the curve, 5yr yields remain on track to test their medium term range lows and long term pivot zone of 1.224%/1.245% before greater signs of basing emerge.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gdmW6D Tyler Durden

Fayette County arrests report — Jan. 28 – Feb. 3

The following arrests were reported by local law enforcement agencies for the past week. All persons are considered innocent until proven guilty. Rather than indicating the age of those arrested, only the year of birth will be noted below due to law enforcement procedural changes.

Tuesday, Jan. 28 – Monday, Feb. 3

Fayette County Sheriff’s Office

Jamecia L. Blount, born in 1995, of Bernardo Drive, Riverdale, for less than an ounce of pot.

Deanthony Brown, born in 1992, of Ward Bluff Court, Ellenwood, for probation/parole violation.

read more

via The Citizen http://ift.tt/1bCRtGK

Senoia, PTC feeling out cart path link

The long-held idea of connecting Senoia and Peachtree City with a cart path was a topic for general discussion at the Senoia City Council’s Feb. 3 meeting. The item was originally included for the Peachtree City Council meeting Thursday night, but was removed from the agenda prior to the meeting.

The proposal to connect the two cities by way of a cart path first surfaced officially three years ago in Senoia’s master recreation plan. Now as then, funding for the project is the major obstacle.

read more

via The Citizen http://ift.tt/1bCRri6