The US Will Sell $4 Trillion In Debt This Year, A 300% Increase: This Is What It Will Look Like

The US Will Sell $4 Trillion In Debt This Year, A 300% Increase: This Is What It Will Look Like

Don’t look now, but just weeks after it passed the biggest fiscal stimulus in US history, Congress passed an additional round of fiscal measures totaling $484bn. This raises Goldman’s estimated 2020 US deficit financing need to ~$3.5 trillion. But there’s more: the bank does not think the latest measure is the final word here, and its economists expect another round totaling $550bn to pay for items such as aid to state and local governments, that haven’t been fully addressed thus far.

On the whole, this would translate to between $3.8-$4 trillion in financing needs for 2020, almost a trillion dollar increment Goldman’s prior deficit estimate, and 300% more than the US sold in calendar 2019. Financing such a massive gap, amounting to 20% of GDP, will require a broad-based increase across maturities and product types.

So how will the US pay for this massive financing hole. Below Goldman lays out what it believes to be a “sensible strategy” to  raise these funds. In the subsequent two years, Goldman turns optimistic and sees the deficit declining to $2.4tn in FY2021 and $1.65tn in FY2022, and reversing some of this year’s increases. We doubt it: once you go helicopter money, you never go back, just look at Japan.

Exhibit 1 shows Goldman’s latest split for CY2020 funding. Bills are still the dominant venue for raising funds, with net supply from April to year-end coming in at around $2.1tn (and about $2.3tn for the calendar year), a magnitude large enough to mean that the bills market will have nearly doubled in size this year. That projection isn’t as far-fetched as it might seem—just in the month of April, Treasury has issued roughly $1.26tn of bills.

This heavy near term reliance on bills is even more visible when looking at split on a fiscal year basis. Exhibit 2 shows Goldman’s projections for net bill and coupon issuance for FY2020, FY2021, and FY2022. As can be seen, as financing needs drop from nearly $4tn this year to about $2.6tn and $1.7tn in the next two years, bills again adjust as the shock absorber. This pattern should be very similar to issuance around the 2008-2009 recession, when bills outstanding shot up to over 30% of USTs outstanding, only to decline to between 15-20% over the subsequent two years.

Such an initial surge in bill issuance makes sense, according to Goldman, only when there’s reason to believe a sizable portion of the funding gap is temporary and likely to fade quickly (it would take a huge optimist to believe that’s the case now). That way, coupon auction size changes can be more gradual, and absorb less of the uncertainty/volatility in deficits. Still, given the large amount that has to be raised, even with bills doing the heavy lifting, Goldman estimates Treasury will have to fund about $1.4tn in FY2020 from coupon issuance.

Exhibit 3 shows Goldman’s best guess of the auction sizes that would be required to raise this amount. As can be seen, auction sizes will have to be lifted fairly aggressively across the spectrum—a conservative estimates sees increases of $12-$15bn in monthly auction sizes across the front and belly, and a more conservative $5-$8bn in longer maturities. Goldman also expects the introduction of both the 20y bond at the upcoming refunding, and a 1y SOFR-linked FRN in summer. For most of the maturities, the auction sizes will hit their peak levels later this year or early next year.

On the demand side, Goldman expects – for obvious reasons – that the Fed will remain the largest player in the market, as Helicopter money goes BRRRRR. In the bank’s most recent analysis, it had estimated that the Fed would have to absorb slightly more than $2tn of the issuance this year to maintain “normal functioning”; with the upsized deficits, the bank now believes that number is now closer to $2.4-$2.6 trillion.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 23:08

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Crude Carnage Continues Across Asia As Another Futures Contract Roll Looms

Crude Carnage Continues Across Asia As Another Futures Contract Roll Looms

Following last week’s bloodbathery in WTI as its May contract expired and the biggest oil ETF (US-Oh!) wreaked havoc between spot and futures markets, it appears we are set for deja vu all over again this week – except this time it’s the Brent contract that may suffer.

“Some of this downward pressure particularly in the June contract is an increasing lack of liquidity,” said John Kilduff, a partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC.

This is not coming only from the USO, but also due to brokerage firms, like Marex Spectron and TD Ameritrade, restricting client’s abilities to add new positions to certain crude contracts, according to Kilduff.

“It’s going to exacerbate the whole marrying of the June contract with the over supplied physical conditions and the lack of storage,” Kilduff said.

As Bloomberg notes, With the Brent contract for June settlement expiring Thursday, any contracts that haven’t been closed out by then will be cash settled at a price set by the Intercontinental Exchange based on cash sales of North Sea crude on the day. Right now, physical prices are trading well below futures – Dated Brent was $16.01 a barrel on Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

But it appears the unwinds in US-Oh! are also weighing more on the heavier-weighted (in the ETF) WTI contract – most notably June…

…which is down 15% further after settlement today, trading back at a $10 handle…

As a reminder, the ETF has changed its investment policy five times in the last two weeks, as shown in the following chart which depicted the ETF’s holdings as of Friday’s close:

Source: Bloomberg’s Laura Cooper

It also warned investors its valuation may deviate significantly from the underlying oil price, in effect acknowledging that it’s momentarily less focused on the price of WTI crude.

“While it is USO’s expectation that at some point in the future it will be able to return to primarily investing in the Benchmark Futures Contract or other similar futures contracts of the same tenor based on light, sweet crude oil, there can be no guarantee of when, if ever, that will occur,” it said in the filing, adding that USO investors “should expect that there will be continued deviations between the performance of USO’s investments and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and that USO may not be able to track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract or meet its investment objective.”

All of which suggests we have crossed the eye of the hurricane as Goldman expects the market to test global storage capacity in the next 3-4 weeksunlike WTI which was merely a Cushing event – which will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand, as with nowhere to store the oil, supply has no other option but to be shut-in down in-line with the expected demand losses.

Alternatively, we could see another “Monday massacre” with producers of oil willing to pay buyers to take physical possession right around the time all global capacity is full, unless of course US shale producers drastically cut output in the coming days, not weeks.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 23:00

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Sen. Tom Cotton Calls To Ban Chinese Students From Studying Science In The US

Sen. Tom Cotton Calls To Ban Chinese Students From Studying Science In The US

For the most part, Senator Tom Cotton has been on the ball: he was one of the first to raise objections about how China has reported their coronavirus data and was calling for investigations and accountability months before others in government even knew that the virus was a threat to the U.S. 

Cotton is now calling for Chinese students to no longer be able to study science and technology in the U.S. and also claims that China is likely trying to steal a vaccine from the U.S. 

On Fox News Sunday morning, Cotton said: “In the middle of a pandemic, what’s the most valuable intellectual property in the world? It’s the research that our great laboratories and life science companies are doing on prophylactic drugs, therapeutic drugs, and ultimately a vaccine.” 

He continued: “So I have little doubt that the Chinese intelligence services are actively trying to steal America’s intellectual property as it relates to the virus that they unleashed on the world, because, of course, they want to be the country that claims credit for finding those drugs or finding a vaccine, and then use it as leverage against the rest of the world.”

He referred to the fact that U.S. education has trained “so many of the Chinese Communist Party’s brightest minds” as a scandal, according to the NY Post

Cotton continued: “So I think we need to take a very hard look at the visas that we give the Chinese nationals to come to the United States to study, especially at the post-graduate level in advanced scientific and technological fields.”

“If Chinese students want to come here and study Shakespeare and the Federalist Papers, that’s what they need to learn from America. They don’t need to learn quantum computing and artificial intelligence from America,” he concluded.

Cotton has said that the CCP is “both criminally negligent and incompetent” in reacting the virus, which has now spread across the world.

You can watch his full appearance with Maria Bartiromo here: 


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 22:40

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“Playing Into Putin’s Hands” – Critics Lash-Out At Joint US-Russia Declaration On Historic Elbe Meeting

“Playing Into Putin’s Hands” – Critics Lash-Out At Joint US-Russia Declaration On Historic Elbe Meeting

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

In what seems a very innocuous statement, the US and Russia issued a joint commemoration this weekend of the 1945 meeting of US and Russian troops on the Elbe River, saying it showed the nations “overcoming their differences in pursuit of a greater cause.”

The intention is to liken the common enemy, Nazi Germany in 1945, to the current foe of the coronavirus pandemic, and suggest that the US and Russia could once again put aside differences to work together in this new crisis.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kremlin file photo.

But because this is 2020, and the statement involves Russia, it necessarily became a political row almost immediately, with the statement panned both by President Trump’s political rivals as a sign of his being too close to Russia, and by anti-Russia hawks who see this as Vladimir Putin trying to trick the US in some way into being less hostile.

“The ‘Spirit of the Elbe’ is an example of how our countries can put aside differences, build trust, and cooperate in pursuit of a greater cause,” U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a joint statement on April 25. RFE/RL

“I am sure this was a Russian initiative,” said former official Angela Stent, while Rep. Eliott Engel (D-NY) chalked it up to Trump’s “bizarre infatuation with Russia’s autocratic leader” and said he was “playing into Putin’s hands.”

Yet the coronavirus really is an opportunity for nations to put differences aside to address mutual threats. Everywhere else in the world such initiatives are being put forward, with the UN even calling for a global ceasefire to address the pandemic. It’s only natural for the US and Russia to also address that possibility.

US and Soviet soldiers greet each other on the Elbe in Germany on April 25, 1945. Via RFE/RL

And typical grousing about that notwithstanding, a rapprochement between the US and Russia to focus on coronavirus would only be a good thing, bringing the world’s two biggest nuclear powers away from tensions and seeing if there are ways to cooperate.

It is also noteworthy that the US and Russia are the two major parties to resist the UN call for a global ceasefire for the pandemic, but may still find some common ground with one another. This may suggest that the entire call for unity may not be lost on them, even if it takes some outside their comfort zone.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 22:20

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Macro Strategist: “Major Bond Markets Are Now The Most Worthless Indicators”

Macro Strategist: “Major Bond Markets Are Now The Most Worthless Indicators”

Exactly one month ago, when commenting on the Fed’s unlimited QE, we summarized Jerome Powell’s unprecedented nationalization of what was formerly the world’s deepest and most important market as follows: “the Fed’s takeover of bond markets (and soon all capital markets), means that any signaling function fixed income securities have historically conveyed, is now gone, probably for ever.”

Now, with the mandatory cool down period to allow “objective contemplation”, others are starting to admit that this was the right assessment. Here is Bloomberg’s macro commentator Mark Cudmore admitting that “Interest Rates Are Past Their Sell-By Date as Guide.”

His full note is below:

Long considered the purest macro instrument, major bond markets are now among the most worthless of indicators.

Conviction is hard to come by right now. It doesn’t help that our established navigation tools are broken.

Free markets are an endangered species. Extraordinary monetary policy measures are now ordinary and bonds are the most distorted markets as a result.

It used to be that a 10 basis point move in U.S. 10-year yields indicated a major shift in market thinking. Now? Who cares.

The only sure message from DM bond markets is that liquidity is abundant. Even the corollary that money is cheap isn’t always strictly true for everyone, precisely because what interest rate you pay on any loan is now far more dependent on who or what you are, rather than what the base rate is in the market.

The Fed and the ECB both meet this week. Never mind not caring about what the policy rate is, we no longer care about their interest rate guidance. Even the banks’ mutterings on inflation are largely a side-show.

Almost everywhere, benchmark rates are near zero and will be staying that way for some time. And those policy rates are almost irrelevant to the inflation story, which is instead a narrative about when a resurgence in global economic demand will potentially clash with supply-side destruction.

What matters from policy makers are the lending and asset-purchase programs. Even there, the message is seeping through that there are no taboos left. “Moral hazard” is an antiquated concept among the supposed stewards of the financial system. With limits removed, the marginal impact of each new measure is diminishing rapidly.

Will stimulus solve the health crisis? Will financial market manipulation solve the real economic problems on Main Street? Does coronavirus infection provide you with subsequent immunity? When will a vaccine be widely available? Good luck working out the answers to these questions from anything 10-yr government bond yields tell you.

So with what should we replace Treasury yields as the ultimate macro guide? Funny you should ask — I’d really appreciate it if you could let me know the answer when you find out.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 22:19

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Petition To Oust WHO’s Dr. Tedros Attracts More Than 1 Million Signatures

Petition To Oust WHO’s Dr. Tedros Attracts More Than 1 Million Signatures

A petition demanding the immediate resignation of World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic has gathered more than 1 million signatures, according to the Korean Times.

The petition, which was started by an individual using the handle ‘Osuka Yip’ on Jan. 31, blamed Tedros and his ‘poor leadership’ for the spread of the pandemic, which has killed more than 200k people around the world. And as the FT noted last night, the true death toll could be more than 350k.

The exact timeline of when the virus first began spreading from person to person in Wuhan remains unclear, as China has withheld reams of critical information about the early days of the pandemic. The Dr. Tedros-led WHO initially tried to help with the coverup by praising China’s response and claiming Beijing’s handling of the situation should be a “model” for countries all over the world.

In reality, Chinese officials suppressed news about the virus, punished doctors who initially warned about the outbreak, grabbed up all the PPE and other vital equipment, while unleashing the virus on the world by failing to stop millions of Chinese travelers from leaving the country, and hundreds of thousands of people from leaving Wuhan and Hubei.

Over the weekend, the WHO endured its latest gaffe when it said that ‘immunity passports’ wouldn’t be helpful because it’s unclear whether those who have recovered from the virus are truly immune. The WHO the next day offered a clarification, saying that the exact levels of immunity for former COVID-19 patients have yet to be closely studied. Dr. Scott Gottlieb said on CNBC Monday morning that almost every coronavirus patient would develop some level of immunity, despite preliminary research suggesting that some patients can quickly become reinfected because their bodies don’t produce enough antibodies.

President Donald Trump accused the WHO of failing in its basic duty to warn the world of the virus and suspended US funding to the WHO – technically an arm of the UN – earlier this month. Two days later, 17 other Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee backed Trump’s decision, saying they had also lost faith in Tedros.

Disapproval of Dr. Tedros over his kowtowing to Beijing is particularly intense in Taiwan, as the government and the people accuse the WHO of ignoring the great accomplishments of local public health officials in suppressing the outbreak in the ‘renegade province’.

The petition to oust Dr. Tedros had garnered more than 1,018,453 signature as of Monday morning.

After announcing his plans to cut US funding for the WHO, Trump was asked at a White House press briefing whether he would reconsider the decision if Dr. Tedros was forced out. Trump refused to answer, though one of his aids called it a “good question.”


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 22:00

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Life After COVID: A Look At The New Economy

Life After COVID: A Look At The New Economy

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

Many Americans have been locked down in their homes for more than a month now, and they’re anxiously awaiting the day when things “get back to normal.”

I regret to inform you, as I wrote previously, that we’re never going “back to normal.

The world After COVID will not be like the world Before COVID.

It’s very important to understand what lies ahead so we can prepare for it.

Two reasons that the world After COVID will be so different are problems with the economy and the supply chain. Let’s take a look at both and see where we’re headed.

The After-COVID economy for businesses

The government stepped in fairly quickly after lockdowns began to approve a massive number of small business loans. These loans were to be distributed by the institution with which the small business does their banking.

Unfortunately, the outcome would be laughable if it wasn’t so tragic.

Here’s an example: Chase Bank gaveRuth’s Chris Steak House a $20 million forgivable loan meant for small businesses by dividing it up by locations instead of treating the company like the large corporation that it is. Incidentally, Chase “earned” $100K for processing the loan.  After everyone rightly lost their marbles over this, Ruth’s Chris is returning the 20 mill. Chase and Ruth’s Chris aren’t the only culprits. There were all sorts of shenanigans that meant the fund ran out of money before the legitimate small businesses could even complete their applications. For example, big banks earned ten billion dollars in fees for processing the loans and here’s a list of big companies that played around with this system and drained it of millions.

Another round of small business loans has been approved by Congress but I’m not really holding my breath that any of this will happen in the way we’ve been told it will.

So to summarize, a lot of the small businesses who need the money to survive haven’t gotten it yet and may never get it, but big banks and big businesses are sitting pretty with the help of their cronies in Congress. It isn’t a stretch of the imagination to say that the longer a small business stays closed, paying their expenses and holding inventory while not being able to earn income, the less likely they are to reopen successfully (or at all) once the all-clear is given.

And if they can’t reopen? All those folks they used to employ will be out of a job.

The After-COVID economy for individuals

Despite seemingly generous government offerings of stimulus payments and higher-than-normal unemployment payments, getting by is about to get a whole lot harder. First of all, many people haven’t yet received their stimulus payments. Some states still haven’t rolled out their COVID unemployment registration websites, so we have unemployed folks who still haven’t gotten one thin dime.

It isn’t going to be long before that stimulus money is gone and if unemployment hasn’t yet kicked in, the first week of May is not looking pretty. A lot of folks were unable to make rent or mortgage payments in April, and of the ones who managed to hack together last month’s payments won’t be able to pay rent and mortgages.

It isn’t just a roof over their heads that people are worried about. The use of food banks has soared over the past month. People who were barely making ends meet before are in a hole from which they may never dig out. And this isn’t out of laziness or any other lack of “virtue” – people can’t go to work because their workplace is closed.

And it’s a perfect storm. If people are not allowed to work and the government is not following through with its promises of aid, there will be a response – most likely in the form of civil unrest and crime waves.

At the same time, many of those who have gotten their COVID unemployment are refusing to go back to work. Why would they go back to getting minimum wage when with unemployment and the extra $600 per week, they’re getting close the $3000 a month? Businesses can’t reopen without employees. Unfortunately, when the COVID unemployment is over (it’s currently good for a total of 3-4 months), people may not have jobs to come back to, because, as I mentioned above, the longer a business is closed while still facing expenses, the less likely that business is to survive.

It’s very likely that even once we’re “open” again, unemployment numbers will remain extraordinarily high.

Prices are going up.

Meanwhile, what money people are able to scrape together isn’t going to go nearly as far as it did Before-COVID.

A lot of folks haven’t been to the store in a month or so. When they do go back they’re going to be in for one hell of a surprise. Prices have increased on just about everything. On the products with no price increase, many companies have reverted to the rather deceptive practice of selling a smaller container for the same price as before. (We found this to be true on both peanut butter and coffee, to name two examples.) You’re going to pay more for things like meat, eggs, canned goods, pasta, frozen pizza, and other popular lockdown foods.

As well, food manufacturers are halting promotions – so things won’t be going on sale like they used to. Of course, they’re doing this to “help”  us out by making it more expensive, thus keeping people from being able to buy as much.

“But the tactical dynamic is that we’re in daily discussions with our customers on how to help them meet the needs of their shoppers. And many customers are looking to pull back on promotions as they try to manage the basics of just keeping their shelves stocked.” (source)

In a given month, “22% of food on store shelves is discounted, according to the companies under its coverage, and the average discount is 23%.” According to Market Watch, getting rid of the discounts will lead to a 5% increase in sales. This means, of course, a 5% increase in what consumers are paying will occur. And that’s just for certain items. Eggs have actually tripled in price since early March and many readers have reported seeing the price of their commonly purchased items increase by 25% all the way up to double the Before-COVID price.

Then there are the supply chain issues.

And this isn’t the worst of the news. Shortages are appearing to occur across the country – shortages that stores struggle to hide by spreading out the inventory and filling in gaps with items that are more plentiful.

Some of the things that are missing are products that originate in China – see this list.

Other items, like paper products, are also sparse even though many of these things are made in the USA. It isn’t just because of so-called “hoarders” either, as the media wants us to believe. There have been shortages of TP across the globe and the main reason is the fact that everyone is now at home most of the time now. Previously, a lot of a person’s toilet paper usage was outside the home – so everyone was using those giant janitorial supply rolls. Most households are now using 40% more toilet paper than before. This interesting article goes into detail about why there isn’t a quick and easy fix for this.

Then there are food “shortages.” Interestingly, this problem isn’t necessarily about actual shortages as much as it is processing and distribution.

Processing plants across the country are shutting down as more and more employees become ill. At least ten large meat processing plants have closed due to the virus. Distribution issues have farmers dumping thousands of gallons of milkplowing under vegetables in the fields, and leaving potatoes to rot.

A lot of the food being produced was destined for restaurants, hotels, and cruise ships. Diverting it to grocery stores and the millions of people using food banks right now (because they didn’t get their money from unemployment yet, remember?) is unfortunately not as easy as it should be. This article explains some of the issues with getting food to hungry people.

One of the issues processing. With meat, in particular, this is difficult – most folks aren’t even going to be willing to process their own chickens and it’s wildly unrealistic to imagine a family in the city processing a cow or a pig. With produce, it becomes a little bit easier – anyone can wash fruits and vegetables – but employees are still needed to harvest the food.

A lot of that scarcity could be remedied if we could reallocate things – if janitorial supplies could be sold to the general public, if farmers could sell directly to stores or consumers, and if farmers could donate unpurchased items to food banks.

To summarize, farmers are losing billions of dollars and people are going without food, while the food we have is left to rot. Hopefully, President Trump’s new 19 billion dollar plan will allow the federal government to play matchmaker between frustrated farmers and hungry families.

Introducing another run at UBI

Let’s put all this information together. Here’s the TL;dr version:

Trillions of dollars were created from thin air to “help” us through the crisis. Unfortunately, a lot of that money is now lining the pockets of massive businesses that would survive regardless.  Many small businesses will never reopen. Many jobs will never come back.

People who are getting COVID unemployment would have to take a massive pay cut – for many, more than two thousand dollars a month – to go back to work so they have no interest in returning to their jobs. Why would they when they’re more financially secure sitting at home? But they’re not thinking ahead – these new-found riches are only coming in for 3-4 months.

People who are not getting money are going to run out very soon (if they haven’t already) and this will result in an uptick of crime and civil unrest. Meanwhile, the money that folks have will buy less as the cost of just about everything goes up and scarcity continues.

This all leads nowhere good. I’m not saying that COVID-19 itself was a big conspiracy but more a case of “never let a good crisis go to waste.”

One possible outcome is Universal Basic Income.

We’re being told we’ve got no place to go except giving away a lot of free money – although they’re calling it something different: the Emergency Money for the People Act. (I previously wrote about UBI here but I thought the trigger would be different).

This fund would give everyone 16 and over $2000 per month for at least the next six months.

The bill is called the Emergency Money for the People Act and would provide $2,000 a month for a guaranteed six months or until “employment returns to pre-COVID-19 levels.”

“Pre-COVID-19 levels” mean the employment to population ratio for people ages 16 and older is greater than 60%. The monthly cash payments would not count as income.

You could still apply for income-based federal or state assistance programs, such as assistance with purchasing food.

Who would be eligible for the money?

  • Everyone 16 and older making less than $130,000 annually would receive $2,000 a month;

  • Married couples earning less than $260,000 would receive at $4,000 per month;

  • Qualifying families with children will also receive an additional $500 per child for up to three children.

So a family of four with two children earning income up to $260,000 a year would receive $5,000. A single tax filer would get $2,000.

  • If you are unemployed, you are eligible for the money, as well.

  • College students will be eligible for the money. They were not eligible for the stimulus payment sent out this week if they were claimed on their parent’s income tax as a dependent.

  • Adults with disabilities were also left out of the stimulus payment since they could be claimed as dependents on others’ tax returns. They would be eligible for the Emergency Money for the People Act. (source)

What could possibly go wrong with “free money,” right?

Plenty. Hyperinflation is one major factor nobody’s talking about – this money they want to give away does not exist and is backed by nothing. If you think prices are super-high now, just wait.

And then there’s the other cost.

Trust me when I tell you there will be a high price tag for that “free” money and the cost will be liberty. Maybe it will be your freedom to decide where you work. Maybe it will be your freedom to choose what you buy. Maybe it will be mandatory vaccines or microchips or ID cards but it will cost you something that you’ll never get back.

UBI Emergency Money for the People isn’t a done deal yet. But the government is going to feel that they’re obligated to take some kind of measures to maintain order. (Back to that civil unrest and crime again). And to some degree, they’re right – the current straits Americans are finding themselves in can be chalked up to decisions made by the government. But I can’t imagine that in this direction lies liberty.

What can you do?

The answer, as always, lies in self-reliance. The less you need, the better off you’ll be. I’ll go more in-depth later but below, find some general guidelines.

  1. Produce or acquire food as much as possible. Gardening; sprouting; raising livestock for meat, eggs, and dairy; hunting; and foraging are all ways to put food on the table yourself.

  2. Learn to preserve food. When food is plentiful, putting it back by canning, dehydrating, and freezing.

  3. Localize your supply chain. Find local farmers and purchase directly from them. Visit pick-your-own farms, get CSA shares, or hit up your farmer’s market. Buy in as much quantity as you can for the best prices.

  4. Slash your budget. Get spending down to a bare minimum right now while we wait to see how things pan out.

  5. Mend and repair. Instead of throwing things away and buying new when something breaks or gets damaged, learn how to fix things like clothing and household items.

  6. Make do. There are a lot of things we get that we don’t need: upgraded phones, new clothing, decorative items, updated vehicles, newer tools, and small kitchen appliances. Whenever possible, make do with the things that you already have.

  7. Make things last. Use everything to the last drop. Squeeze out that last little bit of toothpaste. Add some water to your dish soap. Use a little less detergent in the laundry. These are tiny changes that can really add up over time.

  8. Be prepared for a lack of services. At some point, as income tax revenue continues to decrease, we’ll start to see cuts in services like garbage pick-up and first responders. Start thinking now about your solutions should these things happen.

  9. Continue building your stockpile. Even though prices have gone up, continue adding food and supplies to your pantry as you can.

  10. Participate in a barter economy. If you have eggs and your neighbor has honey, see if they’re interested in a trade. Do the same with skills – swap yardwork for haircuts, repair something in return for someone else’s used item that you need, supply manual labor in return for part of someone’s harvest. If you run a small business, be open to barter within your local community.

We’ll talk a lot more about handling these issues in upcoming articles. (Sign up here for the daily newsletter.) A shift in mindset will be essential to survive and thrive in the After-COVID world.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 21:40

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Detroit Democrats Cast Out Fellow Lawmaker Who Had Audacity To Credit Trump For HCQ COVID Cure

Detroit Democrats Cast Out Fellow Lawmaker Who Had Audacity To Credit Trump For HCQ COVID Cure

A Detroit Democratic lawmaker was officially censured by her party colleagues last weekend after she credited President Trump with for promoting hydroxychloroquine, which she says saved her life after she contracted COVID-19.

According to The Detroit News, State Rep. Karen Whitsett of Detroit ‘broke protocol’ by meeting with President Trump and VP Mike Pence during an April 14 meeting of coronavirus survivors.

“Thank you for everything that you have done,” Whitsett told Trump at the meeting. “I did not know that saying thank you had a political line. … I’m telling my story and my truth, and this how I feel and these are my words,” she said during the meeting.

Whitsett’s penalty? She was cast out by the 13th Congressional District Democratic Party organization, which unanimously voted via Zoom on Saturday to oust the first-term lawmaker representing Michigan’s 9th House District.

“We have the ability to be the referee when we see our leaders out there attacking and not being willing to have a discussion to find common ground,” said chairman Jonathan Kinloch. “Based on her actions and recent statements, she’s chosen to be a stand-alone Democrat with the goals of a Republican.”

According to the resolution, Whitsett has “misrepresented the needs and priorities” of Democrats to the President and public, and that she participated in events with the Republican Women’s Federation of Michigan to express her thanks to Trump.

Whitsett “has repeatedly and publicly praised the president’s delayed and misguided COVID-19 response efforts in contradiction with the scientifically based and action-oriented response” from Michigan’s Democratic leadership, “endangering the health, safety and welfare of her constituents, the city of Detroit and the state of Michigan.”

The admonition means she will not get the group’s endorsement for this year nor will she be able to engage in the group’s activities for the next two election cycles. 

Trump appeared to offer his support for the state representative late Thursday, tweeting, “Disgraceful. (Whitsett) Should join the Republican Party!” 

The president also tweeted Friday morning about the controversy: “The Fake and totally corrupt News is after her as a means of getting to me. She’s smart and strong, knows the truth. Already a heroine to many!

Until March, Kinloch was Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s community liaison to southeast Michigan. He saidthe censure “speaks to the heart of Democratic representation” and should she wish, Whitsett has seven days to appeal.

“This is done with unless she appeals,” he said. “We will begin screening someone else to support that district.” –The Detroit News

Whitsett says she won’t engage in the “pettiness politics” of the Michigan Democratic organization, telling the Detroit News that she’s raised $450,000 in four days for resources for her district.

I was asked to speak about my COVID experience,” she said. “The board has various issues and I don’t understand what this censure is this censure supposed to do?

“We are in the middle of a pandemic if anyone has forgotten, which is what Jonathan and the governor should be concerned about,” she said, while stating that she had no involvement with the Republican women’s group.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 21:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Y6yk2e Tyler Durden

China Brokerage Forced To Retract Report Admitting Unemployment Rate Is 20%

China Brokerage Forced To Retract Report Admitting Unemployment Rate Is 20%

Is China’s unemployment rate 4 times higher than the official one?

While we would be the last to accuse China of lying about anything – and Jack Dorsey would agree – a Chinese securities brokerage may have been foolish enough to admit the truth about China’s dismal economic reality… followed by promptly retracting an analyst report Monday that put the country’s real jobless rate above 20%, far greater than the official number.

According to an April 24 report by analysts from Shandong-based Zhongtai Securities, as many as 70 million people could have lost their jobs due to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, translating into an actual unemployment rate of around 20.5%. The surge in unemployment, according to Bloomberg which saw the report, was due to the outsize impact of the pandemic on services and small businesses, which provide the bulk of job opportunities, they said.

The urban surveyed unemployment rate is obviously flawed in depicting the unemployment situation, because of China’s special condition that there is a very large group of migrant workers and that the urban surveyed unemployment rate couldn’t truly reflect the employment situation of migrant workers,” the analysts admitted.

There were about 50 million fewer working migrant workers in the first quarter compared to last year, part of whom were not included in the survey, according to the 11-page original report.

The problem: if accurate, this means that China is not only lying about the source of the coronavirus, and the number of casualties, but also about its unprecedented fallout on the economy. And to preserve confidence, Beijing is pretending that tens of millions of workers are employed when they are, in fact, jobless.

The official unemployment rate was 5.9% in March, down from the “record-high” 6.2% in the first two months of the year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, but of course that number is fabricated just like everything else in China. Like every other economic “data” point, the employment reading has been goalseeked in a tight range of around 5% since the series was first introduced in 2016, similar to GDP which had barely budged more than 0.1% vs the consensus number until the coronacrisis.

In any case, telling the truth was a huge mistake because just like everything else, in mainland China it is verbotten for economists to critique the official job data, a topic of extremely political sensitivity to the Communist Party leadership, especially if the truth is that China is this close to the social disorder that results from tens of millions of jobless people.

And sure enough, almost immediately after the report was published, it became inaccessible according to Bloomberg. One of the report’s authors, Zhang Chen, said by phone that it had been retracted: “Zhongtai’s attitude is that we should go by the official figures for unemployment,” Zhang said, confirming indirectly that China is lying about the official data and will censor anyone who dares to tell the truth.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 21:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2VHPLVf Tyler Durden

WHO Mysteriously Deletes Tweet About Reinfection As ‘Immunity Passports’ Being Debated

WHO Mysteriously Deletes Tweet About Reinfection As ‘Immunity Passports’ Being Debated

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Sunday deleted an alarming tweet for unknown reasons suggesting COVID-19 infected persons could catch the disease a second time.

The tweet was live long enough to be picked up in the media  some of which reported the information as “misleading”  before its quiet deletion later in the day.

The tweet garnered well over ten thousand retweets and tens of thousands of “likes” before it disappeared. 

The controversial statement said: “There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from #COVID19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.”

Health experts and some publications immediately took issue with the phraseology, pointing out that “no evidence” will be taken broadly taken as ‘confirmation’ that people are not protected via antibodies. 

Most epidemiologists believe COVID-19 survivors do build up some immunity, but still admit the virus is so new it hasn’t been studied enough to come to definitive conclusions.

Drive-thru coronavirus testing site in the UK, via The Guardian/Shutterstock.

As Reason pointed out, the controversy comes as the idea of so-called “immunity passports” is being hotly debated

On Friday, the WHO published a scientific brief on “immunity passports” — the idea that governments should grant special documents to citizens who test positive for COVID-19 antibodies, allowing them to move about freely. The WHO warned that this is premature, since “no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.”

The WHO is correct that scientists have not determined the degree of immunity enjoyed by COVID-19 survivors.

One critic, statistician Nate Silver said in a tweet pushing back against the WHO’s Sunday Tweet, saying: 

…“no evidence” means “something like ‘no definitive proof, yet’… But the average person is going to read it as ‘there’s no immunity to coronavirus,’ which is likely false and not a good summation of the evidence.”

It appears the WHO deleted the tweet out of concern that it could be misleading to the general public, however, it’s ultimately unclear why they made this decision, instead of just updating it with more nuanced information.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 04/27/2020 – 20:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2KGZyVf Tyler Durden