The UK Is Now Home To The Deadliest COVID-19 Outbreak In Europe

The UK Is Now Home To The Deadliest COVID-19 Outbreak In Europe

After flip-flopping a handful of times over the past few weeks, it looks like the UK has finally cemented its status as the deadliest outbreak in Europe, with the UK death toll topping 32,000 on Monday, placing it decidedly above Italy’s 29,079, even though Italy still has confirmed more cases overall, according to a tally kept by Reuters.

Reuters reports that the milestone will probably “increase the political pressure on Boris Johnson”, who has been consistently blamed for not acting sooner to impose a countrywide lockdown, a decision he made at the behest of the government’s top viral experts, as Reuters’ own reporting readily confirmed early last month. 

The difference-maker that finally put the UK over the top was a report from the UK national statistics office which found another 7,000 deaths in England and Wales since the beginning of the outbreak, as HMG pledges to account for ‘every death’ caused by the virus. The UK’s most recent death toll was 32,313.

This policy will almost certainly guarantee that the UK will emerge as the death-toll leader in Europe, heaping even more pressure on Johnson, who is still enjoying something of a bump in the polls from his hospital stint.

Notably, the new figures haven’t yet been reflected in the Johns Hopkins data, though that should change as the data are updated.

The political opposition in the UK – which is still processing the results of a snap election held late last year that delivered a surprisingly large majority for Johnson and his conservatives – has repeatedly bashed Johnson for waiting until hospitals were being overrun in Italy before he started closing schools and businesses. They also say his government was too slow to introduce mass testing and provide enough protective equipment to hospitals, issues we now know were in part due to China’s hoarding.

Even as the UK works to account for every death, calculations run by the FT and WaPo seeking to examine total “excess” deaths and comparing them to the number of confirmed coronavirus deaths in a search for discrepancies, the Office of National Statistics said 33,593 more people had died than average up to April 24 in England and Wales, compared to 27,365 cases in which coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificates, which means there are likely still more deaths in the UK that will be added to the total en masse.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 05/05/2020 – 09:40

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Will The Market Retest Lows This Summer?

Will The Market Retest Lows This Summer?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Will the market retest lows this summer? In this past weekend’s commentary, I discussed the end of the seasonally strong period for the market.

“Despite the sell-off on the last day of April, the Best Six Months has ended on a positive note, registering the best month in decades and the best April since the Great Depression.”

– Jeffrey Hirsch, Stocktraders Almanac

As noted, the primary seasonal signal has not crossed into negative territory yet but seems to be heading in that direction. If we keep grinding sideways for a few more sessions, it will come to pass. (Note: Sell-off Monday morning did test and hold support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.)

“The massive rally has undoubtedly been impressive and a welcome change from the carnage we experienced in February and March. April 2020 has been the best month since January 1987 for DJIA and S&P 500, and the best April since 1938.

But April’s huge move was not enough to put the Best Six Months (November-April) in the black, and that concerns us. The DJIA was down 10.0% for this Best Six Months period, which ended today, and the S&P 500 lost 4.1%.

When the market is down during the “Best Six Months,” it’s an indication that there are more powerful forces than seasonality at work, and when the bullish season is over, those forces may really have their say.”

 – Jeff Hirsch

Confirming Analysis

John Murphy, of Stockcharts.com, also suggests the spring rally may have concluded.

“Several short-term technical indicators suggest that the spring rebound in stocks may have peaked this past week. The daily bars show the S&P 500 selling off on Thursday and Friday after touching its 62% Fibonacci retracement line (purple arrow).”

“It’s also not far from its falling 200-day average, which is also likely to act as an overhead resistance barrier (red arrow). The short-term momentum indicators may also be weakening. The 14-day RSI line in the upper box ended the week at 52, which puts it in danger of falling back below its mid-line at 50.

That would signal that the market uptrend is losing momentum. The daily MACD lines in the middle box are still positive. But the declining purple trendline overlaid on the MACD histogram bars (which measure the spread between the two MACD lines) suggests that upward momentum may be slowing there as well.” 

Both analyses confirms our work and leaves the question of  just how deep the retracement may be unanswered?

Risk Abounds

There is much to be concerned with. 

While we are already well aware of what has happened since the onset of the “COVID-19” virus, we are beginning to get the first sets of actual data. Plunging levels of production, manufacturing, sales, and surging rates of unemployment will potentially weigh on investor outlooks.

Currently, the investing mantra has been that investors are “looking past” the 2020 period, and into 2021, betting on earnings growth to come surging back. While such could be the case, investors are aggressively overpaying for future growth, considering a complete lack of visibility on how deep the earnings recession will be.

However, as noted previously, we can certainly make an educated guess based on past recessionary experience. 

“So, with the entire U.S. economy shut down, 15-20% unemployment, and -20% GDP, earnings are only expected to decline by 10 20%?”

A review of GAAP Earnings as compared to GDP suggests such is likely not the case. There is a high correlation between economic growth and corporate earnings. Such is because without economic growth, consumers don’t have paychecks with which to consume. Ultimately, it is consumption that drives corporate profits.

Optimistic Assumptions

Assuming a 15% decline in GDP (some estimates run as high as 30%), the suggestion of only a 20% decline in earnings seems naive. However, the latest update from Standard & Poors for S&P 500 earnings contains a mild revision in earnings estimates. We suspect these are still too high, as is the expected recovery.

To garner a better understanding, the two charts below compare operating (earnings before real stuff) to reported (actual) earnings, on both an annual basis and as compared to Q4-2019.

Given the magnitude of potential economic destruction, a 20% decline in earnings seems optimistic. Such also suggests that valuations at current levels remain rich as well. 

Maybe this is why Warren Buffett is sitting on $138 billion in cash and telling his investors he can’t find anything attractive to buy.

“Price is what you pay; value is you get.” 

– Warren Buffett

As earnings align with economic realities, the risk to markets currently remains to the downside.

Will The Market Retest Lows?

We posted the following note from Turning Point Analytics for our RIA PRO subscribers (30-day Risk-FREE Trial) yesterday.

“Bespoke looked at bear markets since 1928 (the past 92 years) to determine how many times a bear market made new lows after initially rallying out of the bear market territory. They found that markets made new lows after rallying more often than not, but found that more recent results were less ominous.

Our analysis of the Bespoke results yielded a different conclusion.

Original Bespoke data and results

  • Number of bear markets counted = 25

  • Number of bear markets making new lows = 14

  • Percent of bear markets making new lows = 56%

  • Number of bear markets since 5/14/40 to make a new low = 6

  • Percent of bear markets making new lows since 5/14/40 = 42%

However, Bespoke counted as separate bear markets, several periods that should count as part of a longer bear market.

If we make sure that a new period must be at least 12 months past the previous period, then there are only 15, not 25 separate periods. Out of the 15 bear markets, 9 made new lows or 60%. 

Using this new definition of the market periods means that in the past 20 years (since 2000), ALL of the bear markets have made new lows (see annotated table 2) We think this analysis makes more sense, as we don’t include the period from 1/6/09 to 3/9/09 in the 2008-2009 bear market? It does not make much sense to talk about these last 2-months as a separate bear market. This perspective on the historic pattern points to a much more likely retest of the 3/23 lows.”

Conclusion

Will markets retrace to the March 23rd lows? Maybe. 

It is a “risk” worth evaluating when investing your capital. As investors, there are many possibilities and probabilities of future outcomes. Our job is to weigh those outcomes and make informed decisions.

“Hoping” is not an investment strategy or a logical decision-making process.

Even if the markets have indeed put in the “bear market” low, there is more than a small chance, it is not the final low. 

When even Warren Buffett calls out Energy, Retail,  Airlines, and Non-Residential Real Estate (read REIT’s) as industries that have been destabilized and will not likely resemble the past in terms of growth and profitability, you have to question your investment “risk.” 

Those sectors are core reflections of the broader economy, and while Technology are insulated from complete revenue destruction, they are not immune from a slow down in personal and business spending. 

There is risk to the downside currently, more so than there is to the upside. As we head into the “seasonally weak” period of the year, coupled with a deluge of weak economic and earnings data, this is likely a good time to rebalance portfolio risk.

There is not an insignificant chance of the market to retest lows when you are least expecting it.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 05/05/2020 – 09:25

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US Trade Deficit Widens On Record Crash In Exports

US Trade Deficit Widens On Record Crash In Exports

After reaching its smallest deficit since September 2016 in February, the US trade balance tumbled in March. The overall gap in goods and services trade widened to $44.4 billion from a revised $39.8 billion in February.

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in the deficit was driven by a plunge in US exports of goods and services. Exports dropped from the prior month by a record 9.6% to $187.7 billion, while imports fell 6.2% to $232.2 billion.

Source: Bloomberg

Declines in international travel and tourism made up a large portion of the decreases in exports and imports. Travel and transport exports dropped about $10.1 billion, while imports fell around $10.6 billion.

And the trade deficit with China has shrunk dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg points out, and is clear from the chart above, foreign trade was already diminishing heading into the pandemic, and now, faced with supply chain disruptions, a previously incomprehensible surge in unemployment and a drop off in demand, the world’s largest economy has pulled back more dramatically.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 05/05/2020 – 09:10

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Rabobank: “How Is This Not Front-Page News?”

Rabobank: “How Is This Not Front-Page News?”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank,

All the news that’s fit to print. It’s a classic phrase, but it’s clearly not One Size Fits All in our fractured political/media landscape. Want to hear how awful party X or country Y is? There is a media outlet for you. Want to hear the complete opposite? There is another channel for that. Want to get an objective opinion? Well good luck with that – but there are some slim pickings out there in blog-land. The best approach is arguably Hegelian – follow everything. Read The Telegraph and The Guardian; read The Washington Times AND The Global Times; watch MSNBC AND Fox News; then compare and contrast – and this runs true for financial press and market news too.

For example, yesterday’s Daily underlined expectations that US-China relations would go off a cliff. Subsequently we saw two bombshell Reuters stories. The first is that according to anonymous officials, the Trump White House is going to “turbocharge” the extraction of supply-chains from China, taking an ‘all of government’ approach; this including financial incentives such as tax cuts or subsidies for those firms; the US is considering higher tariffs and targeted sanctions of Chinese individuals, and even close relations with Taiwan as well; and it wishes to bring other countries with it in a so-called new “Economic Prosperity Network”, which sounds like a combination of the TPP and the Cold War. At any point during the 2018-19 trade war, this would have been front page news. Instead, it got hardly a mention. It did rightly see markets dip somewhat yesterday, but arguably not to the extent the story deserved. It also ignored Peter Navarro following up that “Buy American would soon be the law of the land” for some US government departments. Perhaps the market, in its infinite wisdom, believes this is all electioneering and/or that Trump won’t follow through? There is form there – but such certainty in the face of such uncertainty!

Later in the day Reuters was at it again. This time with news that an internal Chinese report seen by Xi Jinping has concluded that in the post-pandemic era Beijing will face the toughest international anti-China pushback since 1989, and that in a worst-case scenario it needs to be prepared for armed confrontation between itself and the US. Reuters states that the report is regarded by some in China as their version of the 1946 “Novikov Telegram”, which was the former USSR’s response to George Kennan’s infamous telegram from Moscow that concluded the Soviets did not see the possibility of peaceful coexistence with the West, and that a US policy of containment was needed. One might think THAT would be front-page news. It wasn’t. It was hardly news at all. Yet there is no election coming up in Beijing.

It is probably not a coincidence that both of these stories emerged yesterday. The US clearly wants China to know that economic sabres are being sharpened in the hope that they don’t have to be used, just rattled; and China wants the US to know that they know the sabres are being sharpened – and that the outcome would be awful for both sides if they are used. Duelling with words is certainly preferable, after all.

This does not mean that something important is not happening here: it is. Neither does it mean markets should be ignoring it: they shouldn’t. Geopolitical tensions are escalating rapidly far beyond the extent to which markets are pricing for – apart from US Treasury yields, where the 2-year is hovering around a record low of just 18bp. An extra 10% US tariff on Chinese goods at this stage, as a random example, would actually be a very benign outcome given the rhetoric being flourished. Of course, one can make the point that USD/CNH is hardly moving. Yet as was stressed yesterday, this is not really a market. When it starts moving sharply we know that at least one sabre is already being used.

Meanwhile, on a different front, there are lots more headlines today about virus lockdowns being rolled back. It seems that real life will begin again in many developed economies within the next few weeks to some extent. That obviously generates one set of headlines – mainly “V-shaped” in tone. The problem is that once we get out of our houses we will see what the real economic damage is: no more hypothesizing what a post-pandemic recovery will look like. As alluded to yesterday, it’s likely to be very ugly due to lingering restrictions and prudent changes in behaviour (the kind of risk prudence markets aren’t showing re: US-China relations). For example:

  • As 3 in 4 Brits remain sceptical of leaving lockdown, the UK Chancellor is warning that half the population is now being supported by the government. Imagine what the bill is going to be. Imagine how we don’t need a Magic Money Tree to get out it.
  • New Zealand, which is seeing zero new infections, has seen PM Arden stress its borders will be staying closed for a long while yet. No tourism, sorry.
  • Australia, also doing well versus the virus, also has closed borders….and the RBA left rates on hold and pledged to keep them there until the economy is back at full employment, which could be years – or ever, depending on immigration policy. The RBA also pledged to do more QE if needed. (Which stopped AUD from ramping at this meeting for once.)
  • Showing the mental confusion when post-Covid geopolitics meets traditional “because markets” neoliberal thinking, Aussie Treasurer Frydenberg has stated that the country must avoid the evils of protectionism…while ensuring it is self-sufficient. Mate, self-sufficiency *requires* protectionism else everyone would already be buying Aussie because it’s cheaper. And perhaps it requires an Economic Prosperity Network too?

But back to what’s fit to print. Also not exactly screaming to the top of the front pages, Germany’s constitutional court will today rule on what Reuters (again!) is calling “an existential challenge to the ECB’s bond purchases”. Will judges give the green light for ECB operations to continue as normal, or place real limitations on them? Might that be an important story, perhaps, given the key role the ECB is playing, the risk downside, and the uncertainty of the outcome for markets? Apparently not. It’s more pressing for Bloomberg to tell us that US stock futures are heading higher along with oil. Perhaps to stop us all from having a fit.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 05/05/2020 – 08:55

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18-to-20-Year-Olds and the Second Amendment: Challenge to Florida Law Can Continue

From Judge Mark E. Walker’s opinion in Friday’s decision in NRA v. Swearingen (N.D. Fla.):

The crux of Plaintiffs’ Second Amendment Claims is that section 790.065(13) completely bars 18-to-20-yearolds from acquiring a firearm by purchase and therefore impermissibly infringes on their Second Amendment rights. This Court concludes that Plaintiffs have plausibly alleged that section 790.065(13) is unconstitutional either on its face or as-applied to Plaintiffs….

It is important to keep in mind the narrow issue before the Court at this stage of the proceedings. This Court is not asked to, and does not, decide whether section 790.065(13) is constitutional. Rather, the question is whether Plaintiffs’ Complaint contains “enough facts to state a claim to relief that is plausible on its face.” At this early stage of the proceedings, Plaintiffs “ha[ve] plausibly pled enough in [their] [C]omplaint to get into the courthouse and be heard.”

For opinions on the much less restrictive federal gun law (which let 18-to-20-year-olds buy long guns, and which let them even buy handguns from sellers who weren’t professional gun dealers), see this Fifth Circuit panel decision (NRA v. BATF) upholding the federal ban on handgun sales by federal firearms licensees to 18-to-20-year-olds, and a dissent from denial of rehearing en banc disagreeing with the panel; and see also this post from David Kopel pointing to other decisions.

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18-to-20-Year-Olds and the Second Amendment: Challenge to Florida Law Can Continue

From Judge Mark E. Walker’s opinion in Friday’s decision in NRA v. Swearingen (N.D. Fla.):

The crux of Plaintiffs’ Second Amendment Claims is that section 790.065(13) completely bars 18-to-20-yearolds from acquiring a firearm by purchase and therefore impermissibly infringes on their Second Amendment rights. This Court concludes that Plaintiffs have plausibly alleged that section 790.065(13) is unconstitutional either on its face or as-applied to Plaintiffs….

It is important to keep in mind the narrow issue before the Court at this stage of the proceedings. This Court is not asked to, and does not, decide whether section 790.065(13) is constitutional. Rather, the question is whether Plaintiffs’ Complaint contains “enough facts to state a claim to relief that is plausible on its face.” At this early stage of the proceedings, Plaintiffs “ha[ve] plausibly pled enough in [their] [C]omplaint to get into the courthouse and be heard.”

For opinions on the much less restrictive federal gun law (which let 18-to-20-year-olds buy long guns, and which let them even buy handguns from sellers who weren’t professional gun dealers), see this Fifth Circuit panel decision (NRA v. BATF) upholding the federal ban on handgun sales by federal firearms licensees to 18-to-20-year-olds, and a dissent from denial of rehearing en banc disagreeing with the panel; and see also this post from David Kopel pointing to other decisions.

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SoftBank-Backed Home-Flipping Company Says It’s Time To Resume Buying Properties

SoftBank-Backed Home-Flipping Company Says It’s Time To Resume Buying Properties

Opendoor, a company backed by SoftBank that specializes in buying homes and flipping them, says now is time to get back into the market. 

Far be it for us to question motives here at Zero Hedge, but one also must dryly note that their survival as a company likely depends on the market picking up, as well. The company’s main service allows owners to sell their homes without open houses or in-person closings, according to Bloomberg.

Opendoor allows owners to request bids online and then buys homes from those who accept. Then, it makes light repairs and re-lists homes without large markups, instead profiting by charging a fee above normal real estate commissions. Opendoor uses debt to buy homes and its borrowing costs move higher the longer it holds onto a property. 

The company purchased about 19,000 homes in 2019 and 3,800 homes through March of 2020.

The company had previously halted purchases in March and laid off more than 33% of its staff as the housing market, like the rest of the economy, simply disappeared due to the coronavirus.

Chief Executive Officer Eric Wu said in an interview: “The value proposition we provide to customers is to help them move with certainty and convenience. We should be willing to take on some of that exposure and we should price homes appropriately due to that risk.”

Mike DelPrete, a real estate tech strategist who tracks the industry said: “They can’t afford to wait for things to get back to normal because they’re never going to get back to normal.”

Wu says that the company is even considering converting some of the houses on its books to rentals: “It’s always an option for us. It’s not something we’re actively pursuing at this moment.”

“There is still demand for people to move. That could be driven by the fact that people need more space because they work from home, or they want to move out of the middle of the city because they want something less dense,” Wu continued. 

For now the company is touting the fact that its process is mostly “hands off”, which at a time of a global pandemic can act as a huge positive for those looking to social distance or quarantine. 

Opendoor had previously raised $1.3 billion from investors that included SoftBank’s Vision Fund. We reported last month that SoftBank posted an astounding $25 billion loss for Q1.

And while growing home inventory and a potential lack of buyers remain obvious looming risks for Opendoor, Opendoor’s performance as a company remains a risk for Softbank. One big happy house of cards family. 

 

 


Tyler Durden

Tue, 05/05/2020 – 08:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3diu6sv Tyler Durden

Good Masks Are Critical, But How Do You Find Them?

Good Masks Are Critical, But How Do You Find Them?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Recent evidence suggesting most Covis-19 transmission happens from pre-symptomatic individuals.

This makes masks critical.

But how do you find a good mask?

US Exported Good Masks to China

In January and February US manufacturers exported millions of face masks and other vital medical supplies to China, according to the Washington Post.

It’s safe to assume those were good masks.

F.D.A. Approves KN95 Masks From China

On April 3, the New York Times reported F.D.A. to Allow Use of KN95 Masks Approved by China.

The masks are almost identical in performance to the N95 masks that hospitals and other institutions are struggling to find.

The F.D.A. said KN95 masks were eligible for authorization if they met certain criteria, including documentation that they were authentic.

Almost Identical?

Let’s investigate the meaning of “almost” and “authentic”.

Low-Quality Masks Infiltrate U.S. Coronavirus Supply

On may 3, the Wall Street Journal reported Low-Quality Masks Infiltrate U.S. Coronavirus Supply.

Key Findings

  • Tests by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health found that about 60% of 67 different types of imported masks tested allowed in more tiny particles in at least one sample than U.S. standards normally permit.

  • One mask that Niosh tested, sold in packaging bearing unauthorized Food and Drug Administration logos, filtered out as little as 35% of particles. Another, marked KN95, a Chinese standard similar to N95, had one sample test below 15%, far short of the 95% it advertised.

  • Officials in Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts and Missouri said they found many imported masks failed quality tests.

  • Gregory Rutledge, an MIT professor, said his lab tested more than 40 masks in the Massachusetts stockpile that claimed to be made to China’s KN95 standard. He found only a third performed comparably to certified N95s.

Ear Loops

Lawrence General Hospital in Massachusetts said it had distributed part of a batch of Chinese-made masks using ear loops from its stock, before seeing a Niosh alert that the masks weren’t up to the American N95 standard their label suggested.

Miscalculation at Every Level Left U.S. Unequipped to Fight Coronavirus

Please consider Miscalculation at Every Level Left U.S. Unequipped to Fight Coronavirus

The U.S. government focused more on preparing for terrorism than for a pandemic. Despite the severe 2009 flu, the government lacked a permanent budget to buy protective medical gear for its Strategic National Stockpile of supplies for health emergencies.

The Trump administration further weakened the safety net as it rejiggered the Health and Human Services Department’s main emergency-preparedness agency, prioritized other threats over pandemics, cut out groups such as one that focused on protective gear and removed a small planned budget to buy respirator masks for the national stockpile, according to former officials.

The N95 story reveals failures of readiness at every level.

Three-Point Synopsis 

  1. Trump did not take the pandemic threat seriously.

  2. At the outset of the crisis, the US exported millions of good masks to China.

  3. Then in a panic need for masks, the FDA lowered quality standards and imported millions of bad masks from China.

That is how “almost identical” (except they don’t work) masks get into widespread use in US hospitals.

Where Do You Find Them?

Q: Where do you find the good ones? 

A: Sorry, I don’t know

If they attach on the ears, they are not approved. If they are from China, they are also suspect.

Amazon Search

An Amazon search of N95 masks bring up many items that are: “Currently unavailable.  We don’t know when or if this item will be back in stock. …. Prioritized for organizations on the frontlines responding to COVID-19.

There are numerous masks that attach behind the ears but those “almost identical” are not N95. 

Finder.Com has a supplier, Canopus, labeling masks with ear loops as N95. Beware.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 05/05/2020 – 08:22

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“The Modern American Law of Race”

My article is forthcoming next year in the Southern California Law Review. I’ve previewed some of the interesting cases I discuss on this blog, and I have a larger book project in mind. Here is the abstract for the article:

This article explores the modern American law of race.

Part I of this Article addresses the origins and development of modern racial categorizations–African American, Asian, Hispanic, Native American, White–in the United States. These categories arose from categories used for federal anti-discrimination enforcement and affirmative action policies. There has never been a coherent or comprehensive explanation from any federal source as to why some minorities are deemed to be “official” minority groups and others are not, or why groups have the precise, and often seemingly arbitrary, boundaries they do.

As documented in Part I of this Article, the scope and contours of official minority status have come about from a combination of which groups were deemed analogous to African Americans, bureaucratic inertia, lobbying campaigns, political calculations by government officials, a failure to anticipate future immigration patterns, and happenstance.

Part II discusses state variations on the scope of the standard ethnic categories, in particular in the states’ Minority Business Enterprise (MBE) programs.

Having discussed the origin and scope of official minority categories at the federal and state level, this Article next turns to a second issue–what evidence individuals must provide to demonstrate membership in these categories. Conventional wisdom is that these categories are purely a matter of self-definition based on informal norms. However, various states require a wide range of proof of minority status to participate in MBE programs, ranging from providing an official document such as a birth certificate listing one’s race, to providing letters of support from ethnic organizations, to relying on certification by the National Minority Suppliers Development Corporation.

Perhaps surprisingly, challenges to the under- or over-inclusiveness of a government’s definition of the scope of racial or ethnic categories are rare. Part IV of this Article discusses the only three such cases this author found.

Part V of this Article reviews cases in which a denial of minority status to a petitioner seeking Minority Business Enterprise status has been adjudicated and resulted in a published opinion. Most of the cases discussed in Part V involve the question of Hispanic status, the boundaries of which have proved especially vexing to administrators and courts.

The next section of this Article, Part VI, turns from racial categorization in the Minority Business Enterprise context to adjudication of claims of minority status by individuals seeking to benefit from affirmative action in employment.

Part VII of this Article discusses two other contexts in which courts have had occasion to determine racial or ethnic identity; first, cases in which a plaintiff has needed to show he is a member of a protected class under anti-discrimination laws, and second, cases involving “Indian” status under the Major Crimes Act.

This Article concludes by noting that laws dictating ethnic and racial categories were designed primarily to assist African Americans overcome the legacy of slavery, Jim Crow, and discrimination. As the United States has become more demographically diverse, however, African Americans are now a shrinking minority of non-whites protected from ethnic and racial discrimination, and of those eligible for affirmative action programs. Given high rates of interracial marriage among other minority groups and the reality that mixed-race and mixed-ethnicity individuals can check whichever box most benefits them, the percentage of non-African-American individuals eligible for minority status for affirmative action purposes will continue to grow, putting increasing strains on the current method of categorization.

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“Clear, Compelling, Written Language Is Required to Waive” Free Speech Rights

From Judge Thomas E. Johnston’s opinion yesterday in Williams v. Rigg (S.D. W. Va.); see this post from when the case was first filed for more. (Note that I had submitted an amicus brief on my own behalf arguing that preliminary injunctions against allegedly defamatory statements are unconstitutional, and that West Virginia even more categorically bans anti-libel injunctions.) 

This case arises out of an alleged oral contract dispute between Plaintiff [Hershel Woodrow “Woody” Williams] and Defendant Bryan Mark Rigg … over the publication of a book. On March 20, 2020, during the pendency of this lawsuit, Rigg self-published the book in controversy entitled Flamethrower: Iwo Jima Medal of Honor Recipient and U.S. Marine Woody Williams and His Controversial Award, Japan’s Holocaust and the Pacific War. This book is currently being offered for sale on Amazon.com.

Williams is a Congressional Medal of Honor recipient, so earned for his heroism during the Battle of Iwo Jima in World War II, and a well-known public figure who makes frequent public appearances and has been interviewed for numerous articles. The  parties first met in 2015, while accompanying other veterans on a tour of Guam and Iwo Jima.  After this initial introduction, Plaintiff states the parties had several discussions concerning the possibility of collaborating to write Williams’ biography.  However, Rigg, a historian and author, states he had already decided to write a book about the Pacific campaign of World War II prior to the parties’ initial introduction. He states he had traveled to Guam and Iwo Jima as part of this research, and then, after meeting Williams, decided to incorporate Williams in the book as a vehicle to tell the stories of all servicemen who fought in the Pacific campaign.

In July of 2016, Rigg visited West Virginia, where Williams was born and still resides, and met with Williams and his family to gather personal details about Williams’ life. On February 12, 2017, Rigg returned to West Virginia to again meet with Williams and his representatives at the Holiday Inn hotel in Barboursville, West Virginia, where Plaintiff alleges the parties discussed the terms of their collaboration.  Plaintiff contends the parties both agreed to the following:

  1. Williams would provide Defendant Rigg with personal information about his life and his military service;
  1. Defendant Rigg would conduct research as necessary for the book and prepare a draft manuscript of the book;
  1. The information contained in the book would be factual as it related to Mr. Williams;
  1. Williams, along with Defendant Rigg, would have input into, and authority over, the text and content of the book; and
  1. Williams and Defendant Rigg would share equally in any proceeds from the book.

Based on this alleged agreement, Williams provided Rigg with information, including untold stories and sentimental items, which Rigg used to prepare drafts of the book.

During the writing process, Rigg shared drafts of the book with Williams and Williams in turn would provide suggested edits and revisions.  Towards the end of 2017, the parties attempted to draft a written contract to memorialize the alleged oral agreement.  Over the course of a year, the parties, through Williams’ representatives, exchanged numerous drafts of this proposed written contract, but were ultimately unable to reach an agreement. Thereafter, the relationship between the parties began to deteriorate due to both parties’ dissatisfaction with the failed written contract.

After this breakdown in communication, Williams became aware of additions to the manuscript which called into question his military actions during the Battle of Iwo Jima and the legitimacy of his Medal of Honor. Plaintiff alleges these statements are “defamatory and misleading.” As a result of this, Plaintiff filed this suit alleging the following six causes of action: (1) preliminary and permanent injunction to enforce oral agreement; (2) breach of oral contract: (3) promissory estoppel/detrimental reliance; (4) conversion of an idea; (5) joint venture; and (6) interference with the right of publicity.

On March 21, 2020, in response to Defendant’s self-publication of the book, Plaintiff [moved for a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction].

The court refused to enter the TRO and the preliminary injunction, reasoning:

[1.] Permanent injunctions against libels may well be constitutional, but preliminary injunctions are not. “Traditionally, injunctions to enjoin libel were disfavored under both common law and First Amendment prior restraint doctrine,” but “this traditional rule appears to be changing.” (The research in my Anti-Libel Injunctions article suggests the court is right on that point, with over 2/3 of the states allowing some such injunctions, and with holdings or practice in most federal circuits doing the same.) Still, the injunctions would be permissible “only after a finding on the merits that the speech is unprotected.”

“[M]any of these federal and state courts rely on prior Supreme Court opinions that suggest an adjudication on the merits is required to enjoin alleged defamatory speech.” “Thus, the majority rule first requires a finding on the merits that such speech is unprotected before an injunction can be issued enjoining further speech. Otherwise, the injunction runs afoul of the First Amendment and constitutes a prior restraint on what might otherwise be lawful speech.”

[2.] Under the Erie doctrine, a federal court resolving a state law case brought to it because of the parties’ diversity of citizenship must apply the substantive law of the state (though of course it’s also bound by any federal constitutional constraint). But though the Fourth Circuit has held that federal courts sitting in diversity to apply state substantive law to a request for permanent injunctive relief,” “the Fourth Circuit has explicitly stated that ‘[t]he grant of preliminary injunctions in diversity cases, as well as those of original jurisdiction, is subject to federal standards.’ Direx Israel, Ltd. v. Breakthrough Med. Corp., 952 F.2d 802, 811 (4th Cir. 1991) (citing Instant Air Freight Co. v. C.F. Air Freight, Inc., 882 F.2d 797, 799 (3d Cir.1989)). Thus, because Plaintiff seeks a preliminary not a permanent injunction, this Court will apply federal law.”

I think that’s not right: It seems to me Direx was speaking about federal courts applying the basic federal preliminary injunction test (likelihood of success, irreparable harm, etc.), but wasn’t authorizing federal courts to issue injunctions that state law precludes for state policy reasons.  West Virginia courts categorically forbid injunctions in libel cases (West Virginia is one of a small but significant minority of states that still take this view); given that federal courts follow that principle in permanent injunction cases arising under West Virginia law, the same principle should apply to preliminary injunctions as well. But in any event, given that preliminary injunctions against libel are generally forbidden by the First Amendment (as the court recognized, see item 1 above), this Erie issue isn’t that significant (as the court also acknowledged).

[3.] The plaintiff had argued that his case is based on the defendant’s contractual obligations, and the libel law cases thus don’t apply:

Plaintiff argues this case is controlled by the United States Supreme Court’s holding in Cohen v. Cowles Media Co. (1991), that a promissory estoppel action brought by a confidential source against a newspaper did not implicate the First Amendment. In Cowles Media, a newspaper promised to keep a source’s identity confidential in exchange for information. Despite this agreement, the reporters decided to publish the source’s name as a part of their story, and the source was fired by his employer…. The Supreme Court held that the First Amendment did not prohibit the recovery of damages under state promissory estoppel law for the newspaper’s breach of a promise of confidentiality because it was a law of general applicability that did not offend the First Amendment simply because it had incidental effects on the newspaper’s ability to gather and report the news.

Most importantly, the Supreme Court emphasized that the source, Cohen, was not attempting to use a promissory estoppel cause of action to avoid the strict requirements for establishing a libel or defamation claim. “As the Minnesota Supreme Court observed here, ‘Cohen could not sue for defamation because the information disclosed [his name] was true.’ Cohen is not seeking damages for injury to his reputation or his state of mind. He sought damages in excess of $50,000 for breach of a promise that caused him to lose his job and lowered his earning capacity. Thus, this is not a case like Hustler Magazine, Inc. v. Falwell (1988), where we held that the constitutional libel standards apply to a claim alleging that the publication of a parody was a state-law tort of intentional infliction of emotional distress.”

This is what separates the case at hand from Cowles Media. Plaintiff has repeatedly claimed that Rigg’s speech is false, defamatory, and presents a risk of harm to Williams’ reputation, goodwill, and his public image. In fact, these allegations serve as the basis for Plaintiff’s argument that the second and third Winter factors weigh in favor of granting this injunction. [Details omitted. -EV] …

By basing his claims for irreparable harm on allegations of falsity and defamation, Williams seeks a preliminary injunction that will, in essence, punish Rigg for the content of his speech…. Plaintiff has repeatedly challenged the truth of Rigg’s statements concerning his Medal of Honor. Further, the harm Plaintiff seeks to prevent with this injunction is based entirely on defamation, libel, and reputation-based damages.  Thus, granting a preliminary injunction on this basis would require this Court to evaluate Rigg’s speech and, at a minimum, pass judgment on the truth or falsity of that speech and its potential for harm.

Further, even if the Court were to just consider the first Winter factor, concerning the likelihood of success of the merits, it would still be required to evaluate the  truth of Rigg’s speech. Plaintiff alleges an oral contract was formed between the parties where they both agreed “[t]he information contained in the book would be factual as it related to Mr. Williams,” and Plaintiff claims Rigg violated their oral agreement by publishing a book that contains false statements, in violation of their alleged oral contract….

In essence, Plaintiff seeks to bar further speech before a final adjudication on the merits concludes that the speech is unprotected….

[4.] More broadly, injunctions against speech that allegedly breaches a contract should generally be based only on express, written contracts:

[T]he Supreme Court has not articulated a standard for determining whether a party has waived his free speech rights. Though in Curtis Pub. Co. v. Butts (1967), the Supreme Court did refuse to find that a party waived his right to bring a First Amendment defense to a libel claim, and held that, “[w]here the ultimate effect of sustaining a claim of waiver might be an imposition on that valued freedom, we are unwilling to find waiver in circumstances which fall short of being clear and compelling.” Additionally, in Fuentes v. Shevin (1972), the Court stated, “a waiver of constitutional rights in any context must, at the very least, be clear.” Plaintiff’s arguments here are at odds with these statements because it is undisputed that no written contract existed between the parties.

Further, when reviewing the few cases analyzing the enforcement of non-disparagement clauses under preliminary injunction standards, Defendant is correct that all involve a specific, written contract that contains some type of language limiting the parties’ future statements. See, e.g., Taylor v. DeRosa, No. 03-08-00199-CV, 2010 WL 1170228 (Tex. Ct. App. Mar. 24, 2010)

(affirming a preliminary injunction to enforce a non-disparagement clause in a written settlement agreement); Perricone v. Perricone, 972 A.2d 666 (Conn. 2009) (affirming a preliminary injunction to enforce a non-disparagement clause contained within a confidentiality agreement which forbid defamatory or disparaging statements); Aultcare Corp. v. Roach, No. 2007CA0009, 2007 WL 3088036 (Ohio Ct. App. Oct. 22, 2007) (affirming a preliminary injunction to enforce a non-disparagement clause in a written settlement agreement); see also Brammer v. KB Home Lone Star, L.P., 114 S.W.3d 101, 104 (Tex. App. 2003) (holding that the waiver of a parties First Amendment rights was not knowing, voluntary, and intelligent).

To the contrary, the plaintiff here asks this Court to enforce a disputed oral contract, meaning there is no language for the Court to interpret or consider. Plaintiff is essentially arguing that he himself interpreted Rigg to make statements, three years prior, that serve as a waiver of Rigg’s First Amendment rights today. This argument is a reach, to say the least. The Supreme Court has classified the freedom of thought and speech to be “the matrix, the indispensable condition, of nearly every other form of freedom.” Curtis. It is only logical to conclude that clear, compelling, written language is required to waive such rights.

Plaintiff presented no evidence at the preliminary injunction hearings to support a finding that Rigg knowingly, clearly, and compellingly agreed to waive his right to make the statements Plaintiff classifies as false and defamatory. Thus, Plaintiff has failed to show that this preliminary injunction would not constitute a prior restraint…..

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