US Futures Soar To New Record Highs On “Coronavirus Optimism” Ahead Of Powell Testimony

US Futures Soar To New Record Highs On “Coronavirus Optimism” Ahead Of Powell Testimony

Global stocks resumed their ascent to all time highs on Tuesday amid fresh coronavirus “hopes” after China’s top medical advisor said the Chinese epidemic may peak over the next few weeks. Momentum came from the US, where the S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high on Monday, and takeover target Sprint soared more than 60% in the pre-market after T-Mobile US was said to be poised to win court approval for its $26.5 billion takeover. The dollar nudged lower versus a basket of its major peers.

US equity futures climbed alongside stocks in Europe and Asia following news that a judge is set to approve a merger between Sprint and T-mobile will be approved, and investors pushed benchmarks to record highs before congressional comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Oil rose and Treasuries slipped.

Despite the latest dose of coronavirus optimism which judging by the record high in stocks has been injected every single day with two notable occasions, China’s factories were struggling to re-open after an extended break and analysts warned that investors might be underestimating the economic damage, but the mood remained strong after another Wall Street surge overnight.

The death toll in mainland China climbed past 1,000 on Tuesday, but the number of new confirmed cases fell, although contrary to the market’s interpretation that this is due to a slowdown in the pandemic it mostly reflects a limitation on how many cases China can test as well as a change in the definition of an infection by China’s health council.

So for today’s dose of optimism, Zhong Nanshan, an epidemiologist who helped fight the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation in some provinces was already improving. “The peak time may be reached at … maybe middle or late this month,” Zhong told Reuters.

The reaction was quick: Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose as much as 0.7% to a record high of 427.46 points, with basic resource stocks leading the gains, rising 1.7%, as commodity prices recovered from the slowdown in Chinese consumption of raw metals and energy.

“There are some hopes that the peak of virus may be on the horizon, but we are still quite cautious,” said TD Securities’ European Head of Currency Strategy Ned Rumpeltin. “We are still pretty far from the all clear … and we just don’t know what the macroeconomic impacts are going to be.”

In China, factories were slow to reopen after an extended Lunar New Year break, leading analysts at JPMorgan to again downgrade forecasts for growth this quarter. “The coronavirus outbreak completely changed the dynamics of the Chinese economy,” they said in a note we discussed previously. They assumed the contagion would peak in March and factories would slowly resume opening this month. In that case, growth would slow to around 1% in the first quarter, before rebounding to 9.3% in the second. Should the contagion not peak until April, the economy could contract in the first quarter, with a rebound spread over the second and third quarters, JPMorgan warned.

Even so, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose 0.9%, snapping a two-day decline, riding on an overnight advance in U.S. stocks with Shanghai blue chips ahead by 0.8%. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday, although Nikkei futures traded up 0.8%. As risk sentiment improved, the region’s benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index gained as much as 1.1%. Hong Kong and South Korea equities climbed the most, while India’s Sensex Index also advanced. Even with a death toll that has topped 1,000, China reported the lowest number of new coronavirus cases since Feb. 1, an encouraging sign as health officials look for the outbreak to peak. Singapore, meanwhile, cautioned that it expects a 25% to 30% decline in tourist arrivals and spending this year.

Analysts continued to dance between painting the latest global economic slowdown as good news for stocks, while also explaining why a return to growth would also be good news for stocks: “At the margin, we have to consider that the rebound in growth we were expecting over 2020 may be either delayed or somewhat less vigorous than we were anticipating due to the impact of the virus,” Mark Robertson, head of multistrategy at Aviva Investors, said in an interview in Sydney. “But ongoing monetary policy support, especially what was delivered last year, a reduction in uncertainty around trade wars, should still be a tail wind.”

All this leads to today’s main event: Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress to begin two days of testimony as markets are now pricing in almost 40bps of rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve to cope with coronavirus damage. The Treasury yield curve slightly inverted to reflect the danger of recession, even as Powell is expected to reiterate that the U.S. economy is doing well but that rates can stay low given the current low inflation environment.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index edged lower, easing from 2020 highs while commodity-related currencies advanced amid signs that the rate of contagion from the coronavirus is stabilizing. Gains in global stock indexes and U.S. equity futures added to the risk-on mood. Norway’s krone touched the strongest level this month as oil prices rose and risk assets were in demand. Bets on the euro in the options market have turned bearish, ending a divergence with spot trading that had held since mid-January, with investors in both now showing a united preference for short exposure in the common currency. The yen edged lower as its haven appeal eroded; Japanese financial markets were shut due to a Tokyo holiday.

Treasuries fell alongside European bonds, under pressure after being led lower by bunds, which extended losses ahead of a six-year Dutch auction and a syndicated sale from Italy. Ahead are Powell’s testimony and $38BN 3-year note sale, first of three quarterly refunding auctions. Futures activity was constrained during Asia session by a holiday in Japan that closed the cash market, with yields 1bp-2bp higher across the curve led by 5- to 7-year sector; 10-year higher by 1.7bp at ~1.59%.

Looking to the day ahead, the New Hampshire primary mentioned earlier is expected to be the main highlight. Central bankers will also be dominating the agenda, with a number of key speakers. From the ECB, we’ll hear from President Lagarde, as well as the Executive Board’s Lane and Schnabel. Over in the US, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee as part of the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, while there’ll also be remarks from Vice Chair Quarles, Daly, Bullard and Kashkari. Here in the UK, Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking before the House of Lords’ Economic Affairs Committee and elsewhere Haskel will be speaking. Finally, data releases to look out for include the first look at Q4 GDP in the UK, while the US sees the release of the NFIB small business optimism index for January, along with December’s job openings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,359.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 426.99
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 169.77
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 550.05
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 23,685.98
  • Topix down 0.7% to 1,719.64
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 27,583.88
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,901.67
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 41,224.88
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,055.31
  • Kospi up 1% to 2,223.12
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.3 bps to -0.388%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.0915
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.786%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 0.276%
  • Brent futures up 1.6% to $54.14/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,569.71
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.83

Top Overnight News

  • The death toll from the coronavirus exceeded 1,000, as the province at the center of the outbreak reported its highest number of fatalities yet and removed top officials. Beijing said regions less hit by the disease should accelerate a resumption of industrial output
  • The European Central Bank has set out an ambitious timetable for its strategic review that could see a decision on whether to change its inflation goal by the summer, according to euro-area officials. The reappraisal has eight study teams covering themes ranging from the core topic of inflation to modern challenges such as climate change and trade
  • Little more than a month since Sweden’s central bank raised its key policy rate to zero in December the jury is still out on the move. The narrative of sustainably strong inflation that the Riksbank clung to while justifying the increase looks set to unravel, leaving investors to speculate whether it might eventually need to revert to more stimulus
  • The U.K. government will break away from European Union rules governing financial services, but wants to agree a “durable” trading relationship for banks, Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid said. The European Union swiftly rebuffed the call for London’s financial services firms to enjoy continued access to the single market
  • The U.K. economy narrowly avoided a contraction in the fourth quarter, adding to evidence of a pickup following Boris Johnson’s election win. Johnson is set to push ahead with the HS2 high-speed rail project linking London to northern England, despite political opposition and spiraling costs
  • Treasuries now make up more than half of the world’s haven assets, double the share they accounted for during the global financial crisis, according to Eurizon SLJ Capital. That complicates matters when the spread between long- and short-term yields inverts: what used to be a reliable American recession indicator is instead an barometer of investors diving for cover worldwide

Asian equity markets were higher across the board after taking the cue from US peers which looked past the ongoing coronavirus concerns and resumed last week’s rally to lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to unprecedented levels. ASX 200 (+0.6%) was led by outperformance in tech and with firm gains in the largest weighted financials sector. Chinese markets were also upbeat despite the PBoC liquidity drain and continued rise in the casualties from the coronavirus in which the death toll has now surpassed 1000, although the pace of additional confirmed cases slowed from the prior day. Following yesterday’s reassurances offered by Chinese President Xi, the Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) traded positively with the former buoyed by property names and with Geely Auto the frontrunner in Hong Kong as it explores a merger with its Volvo unit, while Japanese markets remained shut for National Day holiday.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Stocks Miss Key Level as Virus Worry Limits Gains
  • China Starts Giving ‘Force Majeure’ Slips to Virus-Hit Companies
  • Geely Surges in Hong Kong on Proposed Merger With Volvo Cars
  • Key Erdogan Ally Says Turkish Ties With Russia Must Be Reviewed

European stocks trade firmer across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +0.7%] albeit off earlier highs, following on from a similar APAC handover – after the state of play overnight was dictated by the gains on Wall Street. Subsequently, the pan-European Stoxx 600 hit fresh record highs whilst the bellwether Eurostoxx 50 reached levels last seen in 2008.  France’s CAC (+0.3%) marginally lags regional peers with the index weighed down by Michelin (-2.8%) post-earnings after the group watered-down guidance in which it now expects the FY20 operating income to be “slightly down YY” whilst also acknowledging softness in passenger cars, light trucks and off-road tire markets. Sectors are all in positive territory and reflect risk appetite as cyclicals outpace defensives. In terms of individual movers, Daimler (+1.0%) shares remain resilient post-earnings despite a slash to its FY dividend –  which was set at EUR 0.90/shr, down from the prior of EUR 3.25/shr and below the expected EUR 1.30/shr. Shares remain buoyed following comments from its CEO who noted that cost-cutting measures will be ramped out as part of its initiative, whilst the overall risk sentiment also aids the stock as DAX30 Mar’20 futures probe its contract high of 13639 (Note: Daimler has a 5.6% weighting in DAX30). Sticking with Germany, Deutsche Telekom (+4.1%) shares are bolstered amid source reports that the long-awaited T-Mobile (+8.8% pre-market) and Sprint (+64% pre-market) merger may get the green light from US district judge later today. Deutsche Telekom is T-Mobile’s majority shareholder with a holding of ~63%. On the flip side, NMC Health (-13.6%) received a double whammy despite opening with mild gains, initial downside stemmed on the back of a City regulator probe into the complex director share pledges at NMC after the Co. revealed that it was not apparent who actually controls its largest shareholdings. Thereafter, the second wave of downside arose from KKR has confirming that it has not made an offer regarding an offer for the Co, and adding that it does not intend to make an offer for NMC – which comes amid yesterday’s upside in the NMC shares amid sources noting that it is in talks with KKR regarding a potential deal valued at around GBP 2bln.

Top European News

  • U.K. Economy Avoids Contraction Amid Post-Election Bounce
  • JPMorgan Upgrades Two Greek Banks on Improved Asset Visibility
  • Johnson Set to Back $129 Billion U.K. High-Speed Rail Plan
  • Russia Studying Recommendations of OPEC+ JTC on Coronavirus

In FX, it is déjà vu for the Aussie and Norwegian Krona, but this time the former has rallied on domestic grounds rather than Chinese data to an extent at least, while the latter has extended post-CPI gains with the aid of a firm bounce in oil prices. Aud/Usd is back above 0.6700 and Eur/Nok has crossed 10.1000 to the downside in wake of an acceleration in Australian home loans and as crude rebounds ahead of API inventory updates, the official EIA data on Wednesday and Russia’s meeting with oil companies to discuss OPEC+ proposals for deeper output cuts.

  • USD – Notwithstanding the ongoing outperformance noted above, and resilience in other G10 currencies, the Dollar is still appreciating steadily with the DXY nudging over another Fib resistance level before fading a fraction below the psychological 99.000 mark. Perhaps some reticence and caution ahead of Fed chair Powell part 1, but the index has carved out a marginally firmer 98.810-917 range and registered a fresh 2020 peak in the process.
  • CAD/NZD/GBP – The aforementioned recovery in oil has cushioned the Loonie to a degree between 1.3289-1.3320 parameters, but the Kiwi remains capped under 0.6400 as the clock ticks down to Wednesday’s RBNZ policy meeting and the Aussie continues to outshine its Antipodean counterpart (Aud/Nzd briefly above 1.0500 at one stage). However, the Pound looks more comfortable above 1.2900 vs the Greenback and around 0.8450 in Eur/Gbp cross terms following a raft of UK data including a firmer than forecast preliminary Q4 y/y GDP print. Cable stalled a whisker short of yesterday’s best and 1.2950, with attention now turning to BoE speakers from 12.30GMT.
  • EUR/CHF/JPY – All narrowly mixed against the Buck, as the single currency fends off more concerted attempts to breach 1.0900 and stays within striking distance of option expiries at 1.0915-20 in 1.2 bn, but lags the Franc that is still pivoting 0.9775 and holding above 1.0700 respectively amidst heightened German political uncertainty. Elsewhere, the Yen remains rangy just over 110.00 in holiday-thinned trade after Japan’s National Day and against a firmer Yuan (Cnh and Cny both maintaining 7.0000+ status vs the Usd).
  • EM – More Lira underperformance on geopolitical jitters as the situation in Syria threatens to escalate further after reports that Turkey has increased military activity with Government forces retaliating. Usd/Try has advanced beyond 6.0440 in contrast to Usd/Zar staying well below 15.0000 even though SA manufacturing output fell far more than expected in December.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are posting firm gains in early EU trade in a continuation of the sentiment-driven upside seen during the overnight session. WTI has just about reclaimed USD 50/bbl following yesterday’s sub-50 settlement whilst Brent hovers around the USD 54/bbl mark following yesterday’s settlement close to USD 53/bbl. On the OPEC+ front, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister noted that the members would either meet in late February or early March to discuss further action – which does somewhat defer to earlier comments out of some OPEC+ members, with the Azeri Minister noting over the weekend that a February meeting was discussed but “the situation was analysed and the meeting will be held in March as planned”, whilst Russian Energy Minister Novak attempted to bide his time to assess market impacts. ING notes that a March meeting “may concern many in the market as waiting too long to take action in the wake of the demand impact from the coronavirus.” For reference, sources noted the Russian Energy Minister said they will hold a meeting tomorrow with domestic oil producers to discuss the OPEC+ deal, which could add more meat on the bone regarding Russia’s next steps/thought process. Looking ahead to today’s session, the monthly EIA STEO will be released at 1700GMT with credence on global growth demand forecasts against the backdrop of the coronavirus. Thereafter, the weekly API private inventory report will be released – with forecasts for a headline crude build of 3mln barrels over the week. Tomorrow will see the release of the OPEC monthly report followed by the IEA oil report on Thursday. Elsewhere, spot gold trades lower with the yellow metal pressured by the overall risk appetite. Conversely, copper conformed to the risk tone and clambers back towards USD 2.6lb.

US event calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 103.5, prior 102.7
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,925, prior 6,800
  • Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 3.97%
  • MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 0.84%

Central Banks

  • 6am: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Dublin
  • 10am: Powell to Speak Before House Financial Services Panel
  • 12:15pm: Fed’s Quarles Speaks on Bank Supervision
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 2:15pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Kalispell, Montana

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from a very rainy New York. I thought I had a tough day yesterday with the EMR, an 8-hour flight, transfers, a full afternoon of meetings and then the EMR again. However, my wife always brings me crashing back down to earth as she told me last night how Maisie was late for school again because the 2yr old twins locked themselves in the toilet again and covered themselves with hand moisturiser from those pump dispenser bottles. Then a couple of hours later at a music sing-a-long class the twins love, the person who runs the class took my wife aside and asked whether she thought this class was still suitable for the boys. This seemed to be code for they are too rowdy and not welcome anymore. I grilled my wife as to what they do that’s so bad and she said that they are just incredibly loud and feed off each other. My wife was very affronted and upset over it. To be fair in my younger days I once got chucked out of a gig for singing very loudly in the front row. Mentioning that on the phone from 3500 miles away late last night didn’t help the mood much.

Being stateside it’ll be interesting to monitor the mood in the election primaries first hand ahead of New Hampshire tonight. Returning to our market survey, last month 89% of our respondents thought Trump would win the US Presidential race and only 10% thought Sanders would get the Democratic nomination. Will any of that change in our survey this month? Feel free to fill in and influence it. In terms of what to expect tonight, the RealClearPolitics polling average has Bernie Sanders in the lead with 28.7%, ahead of Pete Buttigieg at 21.3%, while Amy Klobuchar (11.7%), Elizabeth Warren (11.0%), and Joe Biden (11.0%) trail behind them. Senator Klobuchar has received a large boost in post-debate polling, coming at both Buttigieg and Biden’s expense – which could ultimately play to Senator Sanders’s benefit tonight. Indeed, Sanders won the state by a decisive 22-point margin against Hillary Clinton in 2016’s primary and is the incumbent US senator for the neighbouring state of Vermont. That said, few would have expected that Joe Biden would have come in 4th place in Iowa last week, so it’s definitely still an open contest. Indeed, with no candidate withdrawing from the race following the Iowa Caucuses, it’ll be interesting to see if New Hampshire performs its traditional winnowing role that sees some of the candidates start to drop out of the race.

Ahead of going to New Hampshire himself to rally for the largely uncompetitive Republican primary, President Trump spoke yesterday afternoon to a room of the nation’s state governors. On trade, the President turned his attention to Europe saying that his administration would soon take on the EU and address the “tremendous trade deficit with Europe” like they did China. Europe and global markets wait nervously to see whether Mr Trump will go after the continent’s trade practises in election year. The President also talked down the effects of the Coronavirus on the US, pointing out the relatively few number of cases within the country (13 following another overnight), and a belief that the coming warmer weather would help curtail the spread of the novel disease. Finally, Trump released his preliminary annual budget in which he proposed cuts to social programs and taxes, while increasing defense and entitlements spending. The budget, which is just an opening salvo and would not have to be approved until after the 2020 election in November, would take the federal debt above $30trl over the next decade. This further signals how both major parties in the US have embraced larger debt burdens going forward. See our piece last week (link here) on the latest huge increase in long term debt projections from the CBO.

Seemingly sharing President Trump’s lack of fear over the coronavirus, US equity markets rose to new highs last night, with the S&P 500 up +0.73% and the NASDAQ +1.13%, while in Europe, the STOXX 600 pared back earlier losses to close up +0.07%. Energy stocks underperformed on both sides of the Atlantic, suffering from oil’s continued decline as both brent crude (-2.20%) and WTI (-1.49%) fell back, although they have recovered about half of those losses this morning.

This morning Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Hang Seng (+1.28%), Shanghai Comp (+0.34%) and Kospi (+0.91%) all up, with Japanese markets closed for a holiday. The latest on the virus also is that the number of deaths in China stand at 1,016 with 42,638 confirmed cases. On that the impact of the coronavirus is said to be causing Singapore to lose 18,000 to 20,000 tourists per day which is the equivalent of a drop of 25% to 30%. It’ll be worth watching some of these data points as they start to get released covering the virus impacted period.

Back to yesterday and the main global under-performer was Irish equities following the country’s election over the weekend, with the ISEQ all-share index losing -1.20% as investors reacted to the prospect of a leftward shift in policy after Sinn Féin’s strong performance. Fianna Fail’s deputy leader Dara Calleary said in an interview with broadcaster RTE that Fianna Fail will engage with Sinn Fein saying “we’re not going to refuse to talk to them, but let’s be in no doubt that those policy difficulties and those principles are still difficult hurdles.” Bookmaker Paddy Power has made a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein-Green grouping as the most likely outcome in government formation.

Bonds mostly followed the slightly softer sentiment in Europe rather than the late US risk rally as yields saw a decline across the board. 10yr Treasuries were down -1.4bps to 1.570% but sold off a couple of bps in the last hour of trading. 10yr bund yields fell -2.5bps, while the spread of BTPs over bunds rose by +3.5bps. Meanwhile the dollar index was up +0.15% yesterday, strengthening for a 6th consecutive session to reach a 4-month high, and Bitcoin strengthened +1.25% against the dollar as it climbed to a 5-month high. The move lower in 10yr Treasuries was accompanied by a +0.6bp increase in the 3-month, causing the Fed-preferred 3-month-10y yield curve measure to invert yet again.

Back to politics and before the New Hampshire poll tonight, the main political news from yesterday came from Germany, where CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced that she would be standing down as leader and won’t be the party’s chancellor candidate at the next election. This is a major development in German politics that throws open the question of where the CDU goes next and who might be the next chancellor after Angela Merkel steps down. The catalyst for AKK’s resignation was last week’s debacle in the German state of Thuringia, where the local CDU joined with the far-right AfD to help elect an FDP politician as regional premier, marking the first time that the AfD had acted as kingmaker in German politics. However, AKK’s performance had been in question for some time, and since taking over the leadership in December 2018 she has made a number of perceived gaffes and seen her own authority over the party weaken.

In terms of what happens next, AKK said that she’d be staying on for now in order to oversee the leadership contest, so don’t expect any immediate changes over the coming days. For who might succeed her, names in the frame include Friedrich Merz, who was AKK’s main opponent in the last leadership race, and enjoys strong support from the CDU base. He also announced only last week that he’d be stepping aside from his role at BlackRock next month in order to focus on politics. Another is Armin Laschet, the state premier of North-Rhine Westphalia, a more moderate figure who has governed the country’s most populous state since June 2017. You can read all the latest from our German economists who put out a note on the issue yesterday (link here).

Here in the UK, the FT has reported overnight that the UK government will ask the EU to sign up to a “permanent equivalence” regime for financial services that will last for “decades to come” to ensure that the city of London can maintain access to the European market after Brexit. Earlier, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid had said that the UK government will break away from EU rules governing financial services, but wants to agree a “durable” trading relationship for banks. However, he added, “We may choose to do things in the same way as the EU if it works for the UK. But there will be differences, not least because as a global financial center the UK needs to keep pace with and drive international standards. Our starting point will be what’s right for the UK”

There was very little in the way of data yesterday, though the Bank of France’s industry sentiment indicator for January fell to 96 (vs. 97 expected), a 4-month low. That said, the services sentiment reading rose one point to 98, while construction also rose one point to 106. According to this, GDP is expected to grow by +0.3% in Q1, following the -0.1% contraction in Q4. Elsewhere, Italy reported poorer-than-expected industrial production numbers for December, with a decline of -2.7% (vs. -0.6% expected), which follows weak numbers out of France and Germany last week.

Looking to the day ahead, the New Hampshire primary mentioned earlier is expected to be the main highlight. Central bankers will also be dominating the agenda, with a number of key speakers. From the ECB, we’ll hear from President Lagarde, as well as the Executive Board’s Lane and Schnabel. Over in the US, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee as part of the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, while there’ll also be remarks from Vice Chair Quarles, Daly, Bullard and Kashkari. Here in the UK, Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking before the House of Lords’ Economic Affairs Committee and elsewhere Haskel will be speaking. Finally, data releases to look out for include the first look at Q4 GDP in the UK, while the US sees the release of the NFIB small business optimism index for January, along with December’s job openings.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 07:54

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2w8nU6g Tyler Durden

Dramatic Footage Shows Turkey-Backed Rebels Shooting Down Syrian Helicopter

Dramatic Footage Shows Turkey-Backed Rebels Shooting Down Syrian Helicopter

Well that escalated quickly.

One day after we reported that Turkey had deployed hundreds of tanks, armored personnel carriers and commandos to the last rebel-held Syrian province of Idlib in response to the killing of five Turkish soldiers, resulting in clashes between the Syrian and Turkish armies, on Tuesday morning, the armed conflict between the two nations escalated dramatically after social media showed dramatic footage of Turkey-backed rebels downing a Syrian government helicopter in northwest Syria’s Nairab.

Reuters confirmed the report shortly after and noted that Turkish state broadcaster TRT said a Mil Mi-17 utility helicopter of the Syrian Armed Forces was downed.

Shortly after the attack, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “Syria regime will pay a heavy price for attacking Turkish troops.”

As we reported on Monday, tensions flared up in Syria’s rebel-held northwest when an attack killed five Turkish soldiers on Monday. Turkish armed forces responded by hitting 115 Syrian government targets and destroyed 101 of them in retaliation for the attack. The Turkish Defense Ministry warned Syria that retaliation attacks would continue for the slaying of its soldiers. Over the weekend, Turkey continued to send reinforcements to Syria’s northwestern Idlib region, and “all options are on the table,” a top Turkish military officer said.

Turkey has been bolstering its presence in Syria to stop rapid advances made by Syrian government forces in Idlib where its troops are supporting the local rebels, where it hopes to limit President Bashar al-Assad’s power in the region. The escalation in fighting has pushed more than half a million people out of the area and towards the Turkish border, potentially creating a new humanitarian crisis.

The fighting in Idlib has also led to a deterioration in relations between Erdogan and Putin as Turkey supports rebels fighting to overthrow Assad, and Russia, which support of Assad in his crusade to eliminate all rebels from the nation.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 07:24

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/37fZggP Tyler Durden

13th US Virus Case Confirmed In San Diego; China Fires 2 Top Health Officials Over Botched Response

13th US Virus Case Confirmed In San Diego; China Fires 2 Top Health Officials Over Botched Response

A 13th case of the Wuhan coronavirus has been confirmed in the US after one of the Americans who traveled to California from the epicenter of the outbreak on an evacuation flight last week has been determined to have contracted the virus.

Like with cockroaches, where there is one case of coronavirus, there will likely be more, especially since the patient traveled on a long-haul flight with dozens of others, increasingly the likelihood that at least some of them were infected. The State Department chartered four flights to rescue more than 800 Americans who had been trapped in Wuhan by the quarantine passed by Chinese officials on Jan. 23. One American who apparently opted to stay behind in Wuhan has succumbed to the virus, according to Chinese officials.

Even more alarmingly, the evacuee was accidentally mistakenly released from UC San Diego Medical Center, though she wasn’t released to the public: All evacuees will spend 14 days on designated military bases being repurposed as quarantines. The case was the first in San Diego.

Initially, the hospital reported that four patients undergoing testing at the hospital had tested negative for the virus, and they were discharged and returned to federal quarantine at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, where more than 200 evacuees are staying. However, “further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for 2019-nCoV,” CDC officials advised San Diego Public Health on Monday morning, and the person was returned to hospital” for observation, the hospital said in a statement.

The CDC said it’s tracing all of the individual’s contacts since arriving in the US, Reuters reports.

“CDC is conducting a thorough contact investigation of the person who has tested positive to determine contacts and to assess if those contacts had high risk exposures.”

Most US-China flights have been suspended by the White House, and only a handful of American nationals arriving on commercial flights from China have been quarantined under rules imposed on Feb. 2 to curb the virus’s spread.

There are now at least 3 cases of the virus diagnosed in California.

One of the private jets that carried Americans back from Wuhan

Out of eight states that have set up airport screenings for the virus, only six of them said they had no one under quarantine, while NY said it had 4 and Illinois aid it had a “tiny” number.

In China, the scapegoating continued on Tuesday as Beijing fired two of the most senior health officials in Hubei just hours after officials reported 108 new deaths from the virus on Monday, the first time a daily death toll has topped 100. Only 2 of the more than 1,000 deaths occurred outside mainland China.

Zhang Jin, the Communist party boss of the provincial health commission in Hubei, and its director Liu Yingzi were removed by decree of the party yesterday.

In their stead, senior Beijing official Chen Yixin has been sent to Wuhan to lead virus-suppression efforts at the crisis’s ground zero. Chen, a former deputy party chief in Hubei, will be deputy head of a central government group dispatched to the province.

Additionally, 3 senior Wuhan officials have been summoned to Beijing to explain their failings, according to state media reports cited by the SCMP.

Authorities were accused of playing down the extent of the outbreak in early January because they wanted to project an image of stability.

Wuhan authorities also faced criticism for going ahead with an annual public banquet for 40,000 families just days before the city was placed on lockdown, according to the Daily Mail. Beijing is of course trying to deflect attention from the senior Party leadership’s failures – failures that are implicit in their policies which guarantee the suppression of information during crises. However, the death of Dr. Li Wenliang late last week made it almost inevitable that the locals in Wuhan and Hubei would be punished – after all, it was Wuhan police who initially reprimanded Dr. Li for his warnings about the outbreak. Warnings that, if heeded, would have helped save hundreds of lives.

A top Red Cross official in Wuhan was also removed for dereliction of duty earlier this month. Local officials have faced an intense backlash almost since the beginning, once it had become clear that the virus had been allowed to spread within Wuhan without police or health authorities doing anything to stop it.

“Right now I’m in a state of guilt, remorse and self-reproach” said the official in an interview with CCTV last month.”

“If strict control measures had been taken earlier, the result would have been better than now.”

In South Korea, Reuters reports that the first confirmed coronavirus patient is returning to Wuhan (apparently despite the lockdown) after being discharged by the South Korean medical team that treated her.

While searching through virus-related headlines this morning, we stumbled on a telling example of Beijing’s strategy of extreme media censorship after its brief experiment with ‘openness’ provoked widespread public rage Consider this contrast: A doctor who helped lead the fight against SARS in Hong Kong warned Tuesday that nCoV could infect “60% to 80%” of the global population if left unchecked. While on the mainland, the state media reported that another veteran SARS fighter named Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government’s senior medical adviser, is claiming that the outbreak is peaking right now.

In an interview with Reuters, the 83-year-old scientists who helped fight the SARS epidemic said his model showed the virus should peak in the middle of February.

Echoing comments from President Trump, the scientist added that he hoped the virus would peter out by April.

“I hope this outbreak or this event may be over in something like April,” he said in a hospital run by Guangzhou Medical University, where 11 coronavirus patients were being treated.

“We don’t know why it’s so contagious, so that’s a big problem,” added Zhong, whose previous forecast of an earlier peak turned out to be premature. He said there was a gradual reduction in new cases in the southern province of Guangdong where he was, and also in Zhejiang and elsewhere.

Finally, the man from Brighton believed to be the ‘super spreader’ linked to 11 cases involving a French ski chateau has broken his silence, according to the Guardian.

His name is Steve Walsh, he’s 53 years old, and this is his story:

“I would like to thank the NHS for their help and care – whilst I have fully recovered, my thoughts are with others who have contracted coronavirus.”

“As soon as I knew I had been exposed to a confirmed case of coronavirus I contacted my GP, NHS 111 and Public Health England.”

“I was advised to attend an isolated room at hospital, despite showing no symptoms, and subsequently self-isolated at home as instructed.”

“When the diagnosis was confirmed I was sent to an isolation unit in hospital, where I remain, and, as a precaution, my family was also asked to isolate themselves.”

“I also thank friends, family and colleagues for their support during recent weeks and I ask the media to respect our privacy.”

Over in Hong Kong, dozens of residents of a housing complex in Hong Kong have been quarantined after two people living on separate floors were infected with the virus, raising the possibility that it might have been traveling through the pipes.

Per local officials from Hong Kong’s Center for Health Protection, the decision to partially evacuate the building was made after investigators discovered an unsealed bathroom pipe in the apartment of a 62-year-old woman found to be infected. She lives 10 floors below another resident who was found to be infected, the NYT reports.

Yesterday, we reported that the Westerdam cruise ship had finally been granted permission to dock in Thailand after being turned away from three other countries, despite having ZERO confirmed nCoV cases aboard. Now, Thailand has rejected it, leaving it once again adrift. The ship is set to run out of food and other essentials in just two days.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 07:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3bsyrtd Tyler Durden

From the Archives: March 2020

15 Years Ago

March 2005

“Boomer self-absorption is finally generating a little movement on the Social Security front, where the need for reform has been clear for 20 years now. Fear that the program might go poof for boomers may spur enough political will to do something other than prop up the Ponzi scheme. Or boomer exceptionalism may demand even more goodies from future generations, along the lines of the new Medicare drug benefit. We’re special—pay up.”
Jeff Taylor
“Boomer or Bust”

“Regardless of how the skirmish is ultimately resolved, the question of whether religious organizations with secular functions will have to sacrifice their traditional moral beliefs to modern anti-discrimination laws will surely remain at the center of the culture wars.”
Cathy Young
“God or Mammon”

25 Years Ago

March 1995

“Without research, we won’t know what—if anything—will prevent kids from abusing drugs. This is the dismal news about drug education: All programs are qualified failures, providing only small gains that soon disappear. For all the tinkering over the years, Project SMART has achieved only modest reductions in drug abuse, primarily by postponing the age at which a child begins to experiment with cigarettes, alcohol, and other drugs.”
Jeff Elliott
“Drug Prevention Placebo”

“In fact, [Rush] Limbaugh is sparking a huge reaction by mimicking the very liberals who decry him: This is Rush’s impersonation of the all-powerful network news anchorperson, saying out loud what is the subtext in any of the auspiciously introduced and expensively produced national news shows. Their rectitude, their certainty, their values spark Rush’s counter-attitude. He’s just as cocksure, and he’s actually honest about his edge. It is a spoof, and the spoofees don’t get it. Ha, ha, ha!”
Thomas W. Hazlett
“Rush to Judgment”

35 Years Ago

March 1985

“Perhaps nowhere are the fruits of…regulation more obnoxious than in Chicago. For more than half a century, two interlocking companies have shared a near-monopoly over the taxi business in the Windy City, limiting the number of cabs on the streets, locking out potential competitors, and deciding who gets to work in the business and who doesn’t. But a $320-million antitrust lawsuit could change all that by shattering the dominance of the Checker and Yellow fleets over Chicago’s taxi industry. The result could be more cabs on the streets, better service for low-income areas, employment for licensed cab drivers who can’t now find work, and an opening for new companies to enter the market.”
Daniel Sobieski
“Cab Scam”

“Whether the scandalously distorted media coverage of the gun issue is primarily the product of honest media ignorance, reformist zeal, elitist tendencies, or some combination of all of these, the end result is one that should alarm those who care about a free society. After all, the ‘gun issue’ is nothing less than a national debate over the ownership of the means of protection.”
William Tonso
“Calling the Shots”

40 Years Ago

March 1980

“There’s one final advantage over Bell: MCI and SPC are private companies, and their long-distance telephone records are strictly confidential. Releasing these records to the government, AT&T, or private investigators would take a court order. On the other hand, when you make a long-distance call through the Bell System, your call could be monitored—legally! Under the federal wiretapping law of 1968, the telephone company has virtually carte blanche to eavesdrop on your conversations. Every year, Bell listens in on over 200,000 long-distance calls, ostensibly searching for illegal ‘black box’ devices that some individuals use to make ‘free’ long-distance calls. Rely on MCI or SPC if you want to keep your calls confidential and inexpensive.”
Mark Skousen
“Slash Your Phone Bill”

50 Years Ago

March 1970

“A resource can become private property if the owner uses the resource and transforms it through human knowledge and effort into another entity of value to him. Essentially, what he owns is the product of his work—he may use the previously unowned resource as an ingredient in the final product, but he owns only the final product—that which he has created by his own effort.”
James Weigl
“Who Owns It?”

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/39quqnb
via IFTTT

Hong Kong Coronavirus Expert Warns Outbreak Could Infect “Between 60%-80%” Of Humanity, Causing 51 Million Deaths

Hong Kong Coronavirus Expert Warns Outbreak Could Infect “Between 60%-80%” Of Humanity, Causing 51 Million Deaths

The city of Hong Kong and its 7 million+ residents have reason to be extremely anxious about the nCoV outbreak that has already caused more than 1,000 deaths on the mainland. Back in 2003, SARS ripped through the densely populated largely autonomous city and killed some 300 people, nearly half the total death toll from the outbreak.

Professor Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, was one of the first officials anywhere in China to suggest that the government was hiding, or simply hadn’t yet confirmed, the true extend of the outbreak.

Though Beijing has been touting a ‘slowdown’ in the number of newly diagnosed cases, few believe that the outbreak has actually crested, even as a huge percentage of the population in the world’s largest country has spent the last week huddled inside.

Which is why we feel Leung’s latest warning is worth our attention, and yours.

Riffing off of comments from WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who said yesterday that the we might be seeing only ‘the tip of the iceberg’ in terms of number of cases, Leung said the scientific community’s ‘overriding concern’ is figuring out the ‘size and shape’ of the iceberg.

Leung added that most experts now believe the virus has a transmission rate of – or r-sub-zero – of 2.5, meaning the average infected individual will transmit the virus to 2.5 others. This also translates to an “attack rate” of 60%-80%, the Guardian reports.

“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.

On Tuesday morning, Chinese health officials confirmed nearly 100 new deaths, bringing the toll to 1,013 as of late Monday.

If the virus continues to spread at this pace, even a relatively low fatality rate of 1% – which Leung believes is possible once milder, undetected cases are accounted for – could still lead to a massive death toll. Rough calculations indicate that, if two-thirds of the 7.7 billion people living on earth are infected, a 1% mortality rate would still lead to nearly 51 million deaths.

Once all of these other variables have been determined, Leung said he would tell the WHO that the main issues would be figuring out the scale of the worsening global epidemic, and learning whether China’s draconian measures have worked to help suppress the spread.

The upcoming meeting in Geneva, which Leung plans to attend, will bring together more than 400 researchers and national authorities. Some plan to participate by video conference from the mainland and Taiwan.

“With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” Dr. Tedros said last week.

One of the world’s leading experts on coronavirus epidemics, Leung played a major role in fighting the SARS outbreak and has worked closely with other leading scientists, including counterparts in the UK.

Does Leung really think the virus will infect 80% of the world’s population? Or even 60%? Maybe not. The virus has reportedly been mutating and changing as it has spread, and it’s still possible it could change in ways that inadvertently help humanity suppress it. For example, it could “attenuate its lethality,” as Leung put it.

Epidemiologists and modellers were trying to figure out what was likely to happen, said Leung. “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said.

But if we don’t figure out exactly how bad the outbreak has already gotten, it will be much more difficult to stop it from arriving at the worst-case scenarios.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 06:04

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2OLj4lL Tyler Durden

From the Archives: March 2020

15 Years Ago

March 2005

“Boomer self-absorption is finally generating a little movement on the Social Security front, where the need for reform has been clear for 20 years now. Fear that the program might go poof for boomers may spur enough political will to do something other than prop up the Ponzi scheme. Or boomer exceptionalism may demand even more goodies from future generations, along the lines of the new Medicare drug benefit. We’re special—pay up.”
Jeff Taylor
“Boomer or Bust”

“Regardless of how the skirmish is ultimately resolved, the question of whether religious organizations with secular functions will have to sacrifice their traditional moral beliefs to modern anti-discrimination laws will surely remain at the center of the culture wars.”
Cathy Young
“God or Mammon”

25 Years Ago

March 1995

“Without research, we won’t know what—if anything—will prevent kids from abusing drugs. This is the dismal news about drug education: All programs are qualified failures, providing only small gains that soon disappear. For all the tinkering over the years, Project SMART has achieved only modest reductions in drug abuse, primarily by postponing the age at which a child begins to experiment with cigarettes, alcohol, and other drugs.”
Jeff Elliott
“Drug Prevention Placebo”

“In fact, [Rush] Limbaugh is sparking a huge reaction by mimicking the very liberals who decry him: This is Rush’s impersonation of the all-powerful network news anchorperson, saying out loud what is the subtext in any of the auspiciously introduced and expensively produced national news shows. Their rectitude, their certainty, their values spark Rush’s counter-attitude. He’s just as cocksure, and he’s actually honest about his edge. It is a spoof, and the spoofees don’t get it. Ha, ha, ha!”
Thomas W. Hazlett
“Rush to Judgment”

35 Years Ago

March 1985

“Perhaps nowhere are the fruits of…regulation more obnoxious than in Chicago. For more than half a century, two interlocking companies have shared a near-monopoly over the taxi business in the Windy City, limiting the number of cabs on the streets, locking out potential competitors, and deciding who gets to work in the business and who doesn’t. But a $320-million antitrust lawsuit could change all that by shattering the dominance of the Checker and Yellow fleets over Chicago’s taxi industry. The result could be more cabs on the streets, better service for low-income areas, employment for licensed cab drivers who can’t now find work, and an opening for new companies to enter the market.”
Daniel Sobieski
“Cab Scam”

“Whether the scandalously distorted media coverage of the gun issue is primarily the product of honest media ignorance, reformist zeal, elitist tendencies, or some combination of all of these, the end result is one that should alarm those who care about a free society. After all, the ‘gun issue’ is nothing less than a national debate over the ownership of the means of protection.”
William Tonso
“Calling the Shots”

40 Years Ago

March 1980

“There’s one final advantage over Bell: MCI and SPC are private companies, and their long-distance telephone records are strictly confidential. Releasing these records to the government, AT&T, or private investigators would take a court order. On the other hand, when you make a long-distance call through the Bell System, your call could be monitored—legally! Under the federal wiretapping law of 1968, the telephone company has virtually carte blanche to eavesdrop on your conversations. Every year, Bell listens in on over 200,000 long-distance calls, ostensibly searching for illegal ‘black box’ devices that some individuals use to make ‘free’ long-distance calls. Rely on MCI or SPC if you want to keep your calls confidential and inexpensive.”
Mark Skousen
“Slash Your Phone Bill”

50 Years Ago

March 1970

“A resource can become private property if the owner uses the resource and transforms it through human knowledge and effort into another entity of value to him. Essentially, what he owns is the product of his work—he may use the previously unowned resource as an ingredient in the final product, but he owns only the final product—that which he has created by his own effort.”
James Weigl
“Who Owns It?”

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/39quqnb
via IFTTT

Sadiq Khan Reveals “Diversity In Advertising” Winner; Features Zero White People

Sadiq Khan Reveals “Diversity In Advertising” Winner; Features Zero White People

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

London Mayor Sadiq Khan revealed the winner of an award for “diversity in advertising” which featured, you guessed it, zero white people.

“London’s greatest strength is our diversity, so we challenged advertisers to produce ads that better represented our BAME communities,” tweeted Khan.

The poster features six scantily clad brown and black people advertising Nubian, a company that sells underwear for people with darker skin tones.

Khan said the ad was “empowering, inclusive,” just not very inclusive of white people.

This is yet more confirmation that “diversity” is just a euphemism which means ‘no white people’. The ad didn’t even feature the usual token white.

“How is making everybody black ‘diversity’?” asked black rapper Zuby. “Can’t we all just go back to being normal and get along? People are tired.”

“The judging panel praised Nubian Skin for their bold and empowering campaign – celebrating different body types and skin tones which are underrepresented in advertising,” added Khan.

Respondents pointed out another body type and skin tone that is underrepresented in advertising – attractive white people – since Khan has banned such advertisements from being seen.

Last year, a Volkswagen commercial was also banned in the UK for violating “gender stereotypes” because it showed a woman caring for a baby. She was also white.

Another ad seen on the London Underground that was allowed featured a white character and lectured male commuters not to “manspread”.

Ads promoting the homophobic country of Brunei which stones gay people to death are also fine.

Meanwhile, the only ads featuring all white characters in London appear to be those encouraging white people to sterilize themselves.

*  *  *

My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 05:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2tIXiYy Tyler Durden

Brickbat: At Least No One Was Shot

Lourdes Ponce says her 16-year-old son is both autistic and epileptic. During a recent visit to a Fresno, California, El Pollo Loco, the boy had a seizure in a bathroom and fell to the floor. Ponce told her daughter to call 911. “We called paramedics for help, we did not call police,” she said. Cops showed up anyway, and they handcuffed the teen and tried to put him in the back of a patrol car. The boy began to vomit, but Ponce says the cops did nothing to keep him from choking. Finally, she retrieved paperwork showing the boy has seizures and EMS was able to take him to a hospital. In a statement, the Fresno Police Department says the situation is under investigation.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2w0un2W
via IFTTT