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Authored by Doug “Uncola” Lynn via TheBurningPlatform.com,

Everyone Wants to Win and Nobody Likes Being Wrong

The axiomatic adages contained in the title of this article would be labeled as common sense by most Americans; especially Americans because, in the United States, everyone loves a winner.  It’s also true no one ever wins by being wrong – unless in the instances of dumb luck or corruption and these never ensure long-lasting success.

Of course, the inverse of this article’s title would be: Everyone wants to be right and nobody likes to lose. And, particularly, in America, the land of the free and the home of the brave. The shining city on a hill.

Such are the stories we tell ourselves.

Twenty years ago, this blogger had a friend and former co-worker who entered into a downward spiral in the wake of his father’s death.  Being a former drinking buddy and someone I’d not seen in some time, we ran into each other again at a party and him with a real floozy on his arm. They were making out like teenagers and it was sort of embarrassing.

A short time after that, we sat in a bar together, just us two, and I listened to him while trying to remain polite; and keeping things light.  He was in love and thought he was winning.  So, after a while, I bought us another round and downed mine quickly.  I said:  “Buddy, I’m going to tell you what I think and, in this moment right now, I’ll make you a vow:  From now on, I’ll never shine you on for as long as we live. From this moment onward, I will tell you exactly what I think in an honest and forthright manner.”

This is, after all, what friends do.  Real friends, that is.

So, I told him what I perceived as the truth:  That he was wigging out in the wake of his father’s death.  And why not?  Certainly, we see the beginning percentage of our lives and the end of our parent’s and, like Peggy Lee, we sing:  “Is that all there is?”  If so, it’s enough to drive anyone insane; and, furthermore, make us believe we’re justified in seeking comfort wherever it may be found.

I told my friend that I, and others, did NOT consider his current girlfriend to be that sweet – and that “the right woman will make ya and the wrong one will break ya”.

In so doing, I began to see him viewing himself as an “emperor with no clothes”. He didn’t take kindly to it at first, but it was a start and through the years, we both sharpened ourselves like iron.  He also told me the truth while I kept my vow to always tell him my honest thoughts.

Fortunately, today, he is one of my best friends and his life his fantastic.  Both his ex-wife and another of our mutual friends thanked me for staying loyal to him through thick and thin and, indeed, it was my pleasure.

You see, he wanted to win and he didn’t like being proven wrong.  None of us do.  But time and time again, like Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy’s football, we fall short.  Think about that.  Charlie Brown wants to win (by kicking the football) and he wants to be right that Lucy, each time, will hold his balls so he can get them off.  But Lucy is not that sweet.

So I ask you, Dear Reader, if you wanted to fool someone, what would be the best way to proceed?

Maybe by getting them to think they are concurrently right and winning; because these appeal to the American psyche like catnip to a feline; like heroin to an addict.  And just like a drug, the addict will want more of it, even in the face of rising consequences.

It is, in fact, how the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Hope and change.  Make America great again.  Are these not about being right and winning?

In life, and in business, it is always wise to have the endgame in mind before we begin anything.  In so doing, not only does it allow us to see our destination, but also, to make course corrections when we take wrong turns.

But, we can only do this when we’re being honest.

Certainly, advertising works but propaganda works better and psyops are most effective when they make us believe we are right and winning.

Instincts and logic are evolutionary factors and perhaps Freud was onto something regarding the consideration of instincts as through the lens of life and death – psychic energy and biological drives and their vicissitudes.

Therefore, perhaps, the “spirit” of any given time is driven by dialectics as simple as life or death – or even truth versus untruth and the interacting manifestations of these, by degree.

Long ago, the byline of an article caught my attention. It said something like:

“What if everything you ever thought you knew about the world was that it wanted you dead?”

The narrative in our minds says history is akin to a tall tower – a tribute to the rise of man. But, in reality, it acts as a drain of time turning, swirling downward into a funnel. The funnel itself – the societal zeitgeists. Broad is the mouth until it narrows – always unto the same end: Depopulation.

The wheel of time. The change of the seasons. Birth, growth, decline, death.

What is the endgame of the globalists today?  Obviously, it is their survival, and not yours, Dear Reader.

To MAGA supporters, Trumpy-Cat, Inc. appears as a corporate savior, a means to survive; mischievous, and playful, and more entertaining than any reality TV show.

But Red Flag laws aren’t funny, are they?

Maybe they are, to the Greatest Internet Troll Ever:

Would Chris Cuomo be given a Red Flag for his recent rant? Filthy language and a total loss of control. He shouldn’t be allowed to have any weapon. He’s nuts!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 13, 2019

Of course President Trump tweeted that in response to CNN anchor Chris Cuomo’s profanity-laced rant at a guy who called him “Fredo”, in reference to the fictional Michael Corleone’s dim-witted brother in the “Godfather” movie.

Yet, there were those in the press who claimed Trump, in that very tweet, undermined his own support for Red Flag legislation:

Eager to dunk on one of his least favorite pundits, Trump confirmed gun rights advocates’ biggest concern with red flag laws: Namely, arbitrary standards that could easily be misinterpreted and exploited to strip citizens of their Second Amendment rights. After all, if an overreaction is enough to deprive Cuomo of his right to bear arms, what’s to stop a judge from broadly interpreting any emotional misstep as mental unfitness?

Trump’s sycophants, convinced as they are that the president is always five steps ahead, believe he undermined his policy intentionally. “I’m sorry, but he really is a very stable genius,” said one online pundit.

Certainly, if this is genius, then we can rest easy because Trump has assured us, he is not only genius but a stable genius and everyone knows that is much better than a mad genius. Obviously.

And, just in the nick of time as the senate democrats, the day before, warned the Supreme Court to “heal or face restructuring” in regard to guns:

The Democratic senators’ brief was filed in the case of New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. City of New York, which dealt with legal limitations on where gun owners could transport their licensed, locked, and unloaded firearms. They are urging the court to stay out of the case brought by the NRA-backed group, claiming that because the city recently changed the law to ease restrictions, the push to the Supreme Court is part of an “industrial-strength influence campaign” to get the conservative majority to rule in favor of gun owners.

It appears President Donald Trump leads the charge against the globalists and the gun-grabbers.  But is Trumpy-Cat, Inc. a phenomenon or a psyop?  A force or a symptom? A catalyst or a sign of the times?  A spark to ignite a revolution or a passing fad?

President Trump, when asked about his ongoing trade war with China, deemed himself “the chosen one” when talking with reporters outside the White House on Wednesday. As Trump put it, when it comes to dealing with China’s trade practices, “somebody had to do it.” He then added “I am the chosen one” as he looked up to the sky.

– SOURCE

…like he’s [Trump’s] the King of Israel,’ Trump’s tweet continued.

‘They love him like he is the second coming of God…But American Jews don’t know him or like him. They don’t even know what they’re doing or saying anymore. It makes no sense! But that’s OK, if he keeps doing what he’s doing, he’s good for…all Jews, Blacks, Gays, everyone. And importantly, he’s good for everyone in America who wants a job,’ Trump continued…

–SOURCE

Trolling? Obviously. But who is being trolled by means of Messiah Complex? That ever remains the question, no?

In the meantime, the Charlotte Observer reported on “special warfare training being staged across 21 NC counties:

A series of Special Forces military training exercises — including gunfire with blanks — is being staged across 21 North Carolina counties starting Aug. 30, and the Army is telling the public not to be alarmed at the suspicious-looking activity.

Known as Robin Sage training, the unconventional warfare exercises can be likened to live-action role playing in the extreme, with hostile engagement playing out between Special Forces students, volunteer civilians and soldiers out of Fort Bragg. It continues through Sept. 12, said a press release.

…The students will match wits with more seasoned soldiers, who will “act as realistic opposing forces and guerrilla freedom fighters,” officials said in a release.

Realistic opposing forces? And guerrilla freedom fighters?  Really?

Why, they’re acting like a bunch of conspiracy theorists.

But, hey! Did you hear Trump wants to buy Greenland?

Is Trumpy-Cat, Inc. a psyop?  Was the election of Donald Trump a ruseinitiated by the globalists in order for him to, ultimately, go down in flames with his orange hair on fire?  Because what better way to bleed the nation’s brake-lines before the “big stop”?  What better way to ambush, and decisively discourage, gun-owners and constitutionalists once and for all?

And so, perhaps, the most important question is this: What do we do now?

Because the entire world is about to be shaken in ways unprecedented. Economic and war cycles will soon coincide like clockwork and destroy the status quo – slowly at first and then suddenly; and at speeds of which we will barely comprehend.

In the meantime, a new system is set to arise from the ashes of the old. It is, in fact, already in place and, even now, the noose tightens more each day.

It is very possible, Trumpy-Cat, Inc., by either accident or design, will herald the digital solidification of the global technocracy. The Central Planners merely need to control the access points of any governing networks. And they already do. Politics, banking, healthcare, law enforcement, internet, and media. The all-seeing eye may decide what the snowflakes see, and it now, also, has your address.

If they can strangle the pedophile millionaire Jeffrey Epstein, while spoon-feeding, and piece-mealing, the narrative every step of the way, then no one is safe.

Epstein was the first inmate to have successfully committed suicide in over 20 years at the Metropolitan Correctional Center, New York (MCC) who, coincidentally, also happened to be one of the most important inmates in America at the time – and amid multiple strange happenings and inconsistencies.

Then, we discover the bones in the most-important inmate’s neck were broken in a manner that COULD have come from hanging.

Until, finally, the saga will eventually come to a close after Attorney General William Barr prosecutes the (so called) “negligence” of the prison staff for allowing such an important and prestigious inmate to end his own life via so many unfortunate and incompetent missteps, blunders, and gaffes.

Expect a very thorough investigation by the FBI and Department of Justice; followed by an exceedingly detailed report, of course.

And now, just like clockwork, the political puppets, at the behest of the globalists, are going for the guns. Representative Peter King (R-NY) became the first Republican to sign the Assault Weapons Ban Act of 2019:

They are weapons of mass slaughter,” King told New York Daily News. “I don’t see any need for them in everyday society.”

“I think the assault weapons ban is timely now, especially in view of the shooting in El Paso and Dayton,” he said.

Obviously, King believes he is right and wants to win.  But, so do other Americans.  And there is one thing people hate more than their enemies, and that is a traitor.  What is it about “shall not be infringed” the politicians don’t understand? Yet, the “gun debate” rages on.  And what is there about “shall not be infringed” that is up for debate?

Obviously, it won’t end well. But that doesn’t mean we should not have our own endgame in mind.

What should we do now?

Survive and enjoy each moment.

Anything else?

Take ownership, prioritize, work specific problems and provide best-scenario solutions instead of excuses or complaints:

Make friends.  Get to know those around you. Become involved in local and state politics.  Get to know the local law enforcement or even strike up a conversation with the local cop on the street – then, use your best judgment in making assessments that might provide some benefit in your future.

Since the global bankers have illegally hammered the price of precious metals; purchase some physical gold and silver coins while it’s still relatively inexpensive.  If you can’t afford to buy gold, then buy some silver.  A parabolic spike in the physical pricing of precious metals is forthcoming and you won’t be sorry.  Moreover, it allows you to preserve some wealth outside of the “system” and, simultaneously, shove the fiat currency right back up the collective asses of the criminal cabal of elite bankers.

Additionally, have some extra food and supplies on hand. Consider how a good defense can be a great offense; and all this entails. 

Learn a trade. If you only have a small amount of money, use it to buy canned goods and other survival type items. Buy local.  Also, consider starting a business in order to trade locally.

If we know the endgame, perhaps we can parlay that into building trust with others now: Maybe entire regions could be fortified in a balkanized America, by reorganizing current civil administrations.  All that would be required would be the heads of select institutions and agencies to work in coordination, quickly, and decisively as the proverbial excrement collides into the whirling flabellum. Roving bands, gangs, cartels, and feral feds, might then decide to move on to easier targets.

But any micro- constitutional republics must become self-sufficient very quickly; or at least before “every man for himself” requires a strongman to maintain order.

Things change.  Shit happens.  It is what it is.  What matters most is what we do now and next.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2HxZiXh Tyler Durden

Over the past three years, the Department of Defense (DoD) acquiesced to an aggressive lobbying campaign by Silicon Valley to move its hodge-podge of incompatible databases to the cloud in order to standardize and streamline data in a system that uses machine learning to improve efficiency. 

The $10 billion, decade-long contract – known as the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure, or JEDI, came to fruition after Silicon Valley’s top players convinced a reluctant then-Secretary of Defense James Mattis to make the jump into the cloud. 

Last week, ProPublica published an in-depth report from behind the scenes – noting the revolving doors and conflicts of interest which have made JEDI’s origins all the more controversial.

What’s happened at the Pentagon extends past the JEDI contract. It’s a story of how some of America’s biggest tech companies used a little-known advisory board, some aggressive advocacy by a few billionaires and some unofficial lobbying to open a backdoor into the Pentagon. And so, no matter who wins the JEDI contract, one winner is already clear: Silicon Valley. The question is no longer whether a technology giant will emerge with the $10 billion prize, but rather which technology giant (or giants) will. –ProPublica

Mattis and Bezos

In mid-2017, James Mattis was about to fly to the West Coast to personally swear Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos in so that he could sit on an influential Pentagon advisory board despite the fact that he had never completed a prerequisite background check to ensure that people with access to national secrets don’t have conflicts of interest – or can’t be blackmailed (which is exactly what happened to him). 

When DoD watchdog Roma Laster emailed an urgent warning over Bezos, noting that it was a “noteworthy exception” for Mattis himself to perform the ceremony, she was “shunted aside,” and removed from the innovation board. She filed a grievance which was denied. 

“I’ve been betrayed by an organization I joined when I was 17 years old,” said the 54-year-old Laster. “This is an organization built on loyalty, dedication and patriotism. Unfortunately, it is kind of one-way.”

Following Laster’s warning, Bezos’s swearing-in was canceled just hours before it was scheduled to occur, however he and Mattis still met later that day – during which Bezos made a hard pitch as to why the DoD needs the cloud, and why Amazon should provide it. 

They talked about leadership and military history, then moved on to Amazon’s sales pitch on why the Defense Department should make a radical shift in its computing. Amazon wanted the department to abandon its hodgepodge of 2,215 data centers, located in various Pentagon facilities and run using different systems by an array of different companies, and let Amazon replace that with cloud service: computing power provided over the internet, all of it running on Amazon’s servers. –ProPublica

The result of Bezos’s very direct lobbying? The lucrative $10 billion JEDI contract. 

The revolving door

The ‘grease’ in the gears for JEDI, so to speak, came from “several DOD workers who had previously worked directly or indirectly for Amazon and have since returned to the private sector,” according to the report. Chief among those is Sally Donnelly, “a former outside strategist for Amazon who had become one of Mattis’ top aides,” who “helped give Amazon officials access to Mattis in intimate settings, an opportunity that most defense contractors don’t enjoy.”

Donnelly organized a private dinner, never reported before, for Mattis, Bezos, herself and Amazon’s top government-sales executive at a Washington restaurant, DBGB, on Jan. 17, 2018. The dinner occurred just as the DOD was finalizing draft bid specifications for JEDI. 

…

It would be hard to find a purer embodiment of the proverbial revolving door — or a stealth influencer — than Sally Donnelly. For the past dozen years she has shuttled between the DOD and consulting firms, including at least once with Amazon as a client, that seek to influence the department. During her most recent government stint, Donnelly, 59, came to be viewed as the “fairy godmother” of the Big Tech advocates in the department, as one Pentagon official put it to ProPublica.

Donnelly is known as a superb crafter of narratives, a person who can present ideas in persuasive ways. –ProPublica

Meanwhile, Obama’s last defense secretary, Ashton Carter (who launched the Defense Innovation Board Bezos wanted in on), rented an office at Donnelly’s consulting firm prior to his involvement in the Obama administration. While he was Secretary of Defense, Donnelly was a DoD consultant. 

Mattis and Schmidt

Former Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt – who already sat on the Defense Innovation Board, also lobbied for the JEDI contract after gaining access to a vast swath of US defense systems for the purposes of analyzing possible tech improvements over current systems. 

Schmidt’s influence, already strong under Carter, only grew when Mattis arrived as defense secretary. Schmidt’s travel privileges at the DOD, which required painstaking approval from the agency’s chief of staff for each stop of every trip, were suddenly unfettered after Schmidt requested carte blanche, according to three sources knowledgeable about the matter. Mattis granted him and the board permission to travel anywhere they wanted and to talk to anyone at the DOD on all but the most secret programs.

…

In the spring and summer of 2016, he embarked, with fellow board members, on a series of visits to Pentagon operations around the world. Schmidt visited a submarine base in San Diego, an aircraft carrier off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and Creech Air Force Base, located deep in the Nevada desert near Area 51.

Inside the drone operations center at Creech, according to three people familiar with the trip, Schmidt observed video as a truck in a contested zone somewhere was surveilled by a Predator drone and annihilated. It was a mesmerizing display of the U.S. military’s lethal reach.

Yet as Schmidt and his colleagues studied the control panels and displays, they felt like they were witnessing technology frozen in the 1970s. –ProPublica

Following Schmidt’s visit to Creech, Google won a $17 million subcontract called Maven which would help the military use image recognition software to identify military drone targets. After Google employees revolted, the project was dropped. 

According to current and former Pentagon employees, Schmidt’s unfettered access to US defense infrastructure raised alarms – leading Roma Laster, a former Marine and military police officer in the 1990s, to take action. Unfortunately, she took on the wrong billionaire. 

Blunt and direct, she was hardly a pushover. But Laster had never encountered tech billionaires before, much less ones empowered by the head of her agency.

The trouble started after Laster sought a clarification of how to carry out Mattis’ sweeping travel directive. She was concerned that it could expose the department to accusations of giving vendors an unfair edge. Three members of the board worked directly or indirectly for Google and two for United Technologies, a major defense contractor.

Schmidt responded by threatening to go over her head to Mattis, according to her grievance. She was told to stand down and never again speak to Schmidt. According to the grievance, her boss told her, “Mr. Schmidt was a billionaire and would never accept pushback, warnings or limits.” –ProPublica

Schmidt, meanwhile, “was an effective advocate for the power of big data, which he argued had become as important a strategic resource as oil,” telling Mattis that Google’s lead over China in AI had shrunk from five years to six months. 

“Mr. Secretary, they’re at your heels,” said Schmidt, who wanted the DoD to adopt Silicon Valley’s philosophy of innovation, risk-taking, and moving fast. Chief among his recommendations – embrace cloud computing. 

In the summer of 2017, Mattis decided to investigate firsthand. He departed on a tour that would include visits to Amazon and Google headquarters and a one-on-one with Apple CEO Tim Cook.

At Amazon, despite the tempest about Bezos joining the innovation board, Mattis and the CEO hit it off. The two talked together for about an hour. Mattis gave a pithy sweep of lessons from military history and expressed his view on the perils of overreliance on technology. He noted how the British Navy, once famous for its derring-do, nearly lost the World War I battle of Jutland when ship captains hesitated, waiting for flag signals from their fleet commander. 

After the meeting, Bezos and Mattis walked to another conference room, where AWS executives made their case that the company’s cloud products offer better security than traditional data centers, according to three people who attended. As evidence, they noted that the Central Intelligence Agency had embarked on a $600 million, 10-year cloud contract with Amazon in 2013 and, they said, it was working. –ProPublica

Oracle and IBM left out in the cold

By March 2018, rumors were that the DoD contract for JEDI was custom-tailored for Amazon. For example, “the bid required that the JEDI contract could not account for more than half of the provider’s cloud data load. And it required that the provider have at least three physical data centers, each separated by more than 150 miles. Only a tiny handful of companies could fulfill those mandates.”

And what did other tech companies vying for JEDI do? IBM, Microsoft and Oracle banded together to form a coalition opposing JEDI. 

“This one-size-fits-all idea is, I think, limited to JEDI and promoted by Amazon, because it fits Amazon’s needs,” said Oracle’s top Washington executive, Ken Glueck. 

The DoD denies favoritism, claiming in a statement “The requirements were not designed around any one provider.” 

Oracle went one step further, using their own D.C. access to arrange a meeting for its co-CEO, Safra Catz, to attend a private dinner with President Trump and investor Peter Thiel – founder of defense firm Palantir. Catz complained that JEDI was slanted towards Amazon, after which Trump began voicing public opposition to the project. 

Two bidders — IBM and Oracle — were eliminated after they failed to meet the bid requirements. That has left only Amazon and Microsoft still standing in the JEDI competition.

Both IBM and Oracle filed protests. IBM’s protest was dismissed and Oracle’s was denied by the Government Accountability Office. Oracle sued the government in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, asserting JEDI had been tainted by conflicts of interest. The judge in the case ruled against Oracle. He agreed with the contracting officer that Oracle lost the bid on the merits and that any “errors and omissions” were “not significant and did not give AWS a competitive advantage.” –ProPublica

After Oracle lost in court, the pushed forward – hiring former Trump administration members to make their case to key congressional committees. “Largely as a result, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee blocked the DOD from spending money on JEDI until it demonstrated it was using multiple cloud vendors,” according to the report. 

As it stands, JEDI has been put on hold (“shrouded in uncertainty,” as ProPublica puts it). 

The project might not survive in its current form, according to people knowledgeable about the DOD, but there’s little doubt that the agency will move its computing to the cloud in one form or another. –ProPublica

At the end of the day, Washington’s revolving door is as strong as it’s ever been – while Silicon Valley’s grip on government secrets appears to grow ever-stronger (such as the gmail address to which Hillary Clinton’s emails were blind-copied). 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2MK1wHp Tyler Durden

A Fed hint here, a Trump tweet there, and a well-timed China headline is all you need to bypass fun-durr-mentals and send stock-buying-algos into a frenzy on a low-liquidity week…”Never gonna let you down!!”

Another sideways day for Chinese stocks unable to bounce back from early weakness (closed before the China trade headlines sparked a buying panic)…

Source: Bloomberg

Big positive day for Europe helped by the China headlines overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets did get a jolt of excitement in the afternoon as ECB’s Knot suggested no need for more QE (but that didn’t last long)…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities ripped higher again (on another trade headline overnight, this time from China saying nothing new at all), erasing all of Trump’s trade tantrum losses from last Friday…

NOTE – Nasdaq and S&P unchanged from Thursday’s close, Dow/Trans higher, Small Caps red.

 

Futures show the big spike overnight when the China headlines hit…

 

Stocks rallied all the way up to a critical Fib 61.8% retrace of the early August plunge (erasing all of last Friday’s Trump trade-tantrum losses…

 

Another big short-squeeze started the day off well…

Source: Bloomberg

Financials outperformed the market once again, decoupling from the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

The timing of the China trade headlines was oddly perfectly-timed with the VIX opening, which punched lower, sparking panic-buying in the thin futures pre-market…

 

30Y Treasury yields are once again “more attractive” than stock dividend yields…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields and stocks entirely decoupled again this week (rebalancing?) as stocks shrugged off all of last week’s worries but bonds did not…

Source: Bloomberg

 

A really ugly 7Y auction sparked some pain in Treasuries and we suspect more rebalancing, but in the end yields were only marginally higher (except the long bond ended unch)… A late-daye bid for bonds took them all lower for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields rose modestly, testing back above 2.00% intraday but each time a bid appeared…

Source: Bloomberg

And in case you wondered why the bids – look at positioning in the Ultras…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened with 2s10s testing back toward 0 but quickly fell back in the afternoon…

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave bond-land, we note that traders looking for a reason to bet against the epic run in Treasuries might want to consider that the rolling 30-day correlation between 10-year Treasury futures and the MOVE Index, a gauge of underlying volatility, rose to a record this week. As Bloomberg’s Robert Fullem notes, market theorists say a surge in volatility may mark an end to a trend, suggesting it could be best to avoid Treasuries at these levels. The price-volatility correlation, which has generally been negative, rose above the prior peak seen in the run-up to the financial crisis of 2008.

 

The Dollar rallied once again…

Source: Bloomberg

The Broad trade-weighted dollar is at an all-time record high…

Source: Bloomberg

The Argentine Peso crashed to a new record low at the open (above 60/USD) but like yesterday was rescued by ARG auction bids…

Source: Bloomberg

But, as the currency was rescued, traders dumped ARG bonds like a syphillitic hooker…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos extended losses overnight from the late-day plunge but saw a bid in the US equity market session…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended losses below $10k…

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Gold slipped back into the red for the week but well off the lows from before Trump’s tantrum…

 

While gold is the best-performing precious metal YTD, Platinum has exploded this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Big roundtrip in WTI over the last two weeks…

 

And finally, the big question is – Will 2019 be like 1998 or 2013?

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 

 

 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2PourCZ Tyler Durden

Could President Trump be poised to dramatically draw back the heavy US military and foreign aid investment in Ukraine that his administration inherited from the Obama White House? Since the US-backed coup against Russia-friendly Viktor Yanukovich on the back of the Euromaidan protests in 2014, Washington has given Ukraine over $1 billion in security assistance to bolster its national armed forces as they clash with pro-Russian separatists in the country’s east. 

And now CNN reports a possible drastic reversal: President Trump has “seriously considered for the past several weeks cutting $250 million the United States is providing in military assistance to Ukraine.” The original Politico report which broke the news said the White House has already notified Congress and multiple US agencies of its intent to cut the aid. 

Trump is said to be concerned whether the funds are being used “in the best interest” of the United States, and ordered his national security team to review the program, known as the the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.

Congressional leaders as well as mainstream media pundits are already signaling that a bipartisan uproar is sure to follow any cut in funding, given it will be seen as a major concession to Putin, who the US president is seen as “soft” on especially after Trump this week argued at the G7 summit in France that Russia ought to be invited back to the (formerly G8) group as Moscow remains directly involved in many world crises under discussion as a major player. 

Ukraine has of course been at the heart of rapidly deteriorating US-Russia relations, something which Trump has recently said he wanted to improve. This after the administration initially unveiled the proposed additional $250 million in defense-related funds in June, and following a 2017 decision to provide lethal weapons shipments to Ukraine, which was reported to have included Javelin portable anti-tank missile systems.

This also comes after the White House dropped a plan last week to drastically roll back foreign aid across the globe, which would involve cutting over $4 billion across 10 areas of foreign assistance.

It’s part of Trump’s broader theme of ensuring other countries are not their dumping global security burdens on the United States, per Politico:

The senior administration official, who asked to remain anonymous in order to discuss internal matters, said the president wants to ensure U.S. interests are being prioritized when it comes to foreign assistance, and is seeking assurances that other countries are “paying their fair share.” Defense Secretary Mark Esper and national security adviser John Bolton are among the officials reviewing the Ukraine security funding.

Also interesting is that Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani has long pushed for Kiev to investigate Vice President Joe Biden’s attempt in 2016 to get the country’s top prosecutor removed at a crucial moment during an ongoing investigation into Burisma Holdings — the Ukrainian natural gas company advised at the time by Biden’s son Hunter.

As the The New York Times reported previously, during the final year of the Obama presidency, Vice President Joe Biden “threatened to withhold $1 billion in United States loan guarantees if Ukraine’s leaders did not dismiss the country’s top prosecutor” — Viktor Shokin — “who had been accused of turning a blind eye to corruption in his own office and among the political elite.” 

Crucially last week Giuliani was reported to have again raised the issue with Ukrainian officials, according to CNN. As CNN cynically put it in its latest report, this suggests “the former New York mayor is making a renewed push for the country to investigate Trump’s political enemies.”

But then again maybe it’s as simple as the US not actually having a deep national security interest in propping up Ukraine’s military at a moment when international missile treaties with Russian are unraveling and the war in Donbass is at a bloody stalemate. 

The looming potential for a controversial cut in aid to Ukraine will make Trump’s upcoming meeting with still relatively new “political outsider” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set for next week all the more interesting. A final decision on the military aid is expect after this crucial meeting.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/32eyOlK Tyler Durden

Authored by Horus Hughes via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin price has been everywhere and nowhere lately. As price consolidates analysts are concurrently screaming bull and bear. The noise is leading to confusion for the average investor who is finding it difficult to separate it from the signal. 

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Let’s take a comprehensive view of Bitcoin price action to gain clarity on the bullish and bearish scenario with special focus on three indicators: Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier and Bollinger Bands. 

Is $10K the new $1K for Bitcoin price?

Earlier this month, popular Bitcoin market analyst PlanB tweeted that:

“Bitcoin’s 3 month struggle to break the magical $10k feels like begin 2017 struggle to break $1k…we all know what comes next.”

The same question appears to be on the minds of many investors and the uber bullish sentiment of the previous two months seems to be taking a hit as traders wonder: 

• Why isn’t Bitcoin price exploding as the digital asset was supposed to function as a store-of-value hedge against market volatility? 

• Why aren’t alts proving 100%+ gains to kick off a new alt season since Bitcoin is consolidating and slowly becoming bearish? 

• Why haven’t we seen a slow roll rally right after the Bakkt announcement of its platform launch next month? 

Up until January 2, 2017, Bitcoin had traded below $1,000 for 1,124 days. Once above $1,000, the following $1,000 hurdles were lept over at an ever-quickening pace. The number of days between $1,000 and $2,000 was reduced to 23. By the time Bitcoin price reached $5,000, the number of days it took to secure another $1,000 gain had dropped to 10. 

As of right now, Bitcoin has spent the past 2 weeks in a struggle to stay above $10,000 and traders like PlanB are beginning to wonder if $10K is the new $1K. 

More experienced traders familiar with Bitcoin’s trading history and character will advise calm. But that’s not enough to allay the worries of those who might have purchased Bitcoin from $12,900 to $11,500, especially if there’s a possibility that Bitcoin could enter a prolonged accumulation phase that will last until Q1 of 2020. 

Crypto Fear and Greed Index at record lows

Sentiment has been proven to play a significant role in Bitcoin price action and PlanB is certainly onto something.

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, investor sentiment is measured by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) and multiple hedge funds, firms and crypto-analysts across the sector draw insight from the index. 

The index maps investor sentiment on a scale of 1 to 100 where 1 represents investors’ sense of doom and 100 reflects sheer optimism and greed. 

According to the creators, a low reading tends to represent buying opportunities and high readings could be a sign that a correction is in store. As of August 22, the indicator had dropped to 5, the lowest level measured since December 2018.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index Source: Alternative.me

Currently, the CFGI stands at 30 (fear), which is an improvement over last week’s reading of 11 (extreme fear). 

Given that BTC/USD has plotted lower highs and lower lows as volume dries up and the trading range tightens near the all-important $10K mark, it seems sensible to infer that traders are growing increasingly reluctant to take a position as many are afraid support at $10k will finally give and eventually lead to a new local low below $9,000. 

It takes more than just a hunch

Obviously, sentiment is not the singular driver of any asset’s price action and some discussion of Bitcoin’s technical setup and current market structure is required. 

On the weekly time frame, one can see that the Moving Average Confluence Divergence (MACD) indicator plotted a bearish crossover for the first time since the bottom was reached in February 2018 and the MACD crossed bullish. 

The MACD (blue) crossed below the signal line (red) over the weekend and dipped below 0 (baseline). One can also see that the histogram has turned negative and dipped into what could be interpreted as bearish territory. It should be noted that the MACD is a lagging indicator that does not accurately reflect an asset’s current price action. 

Some traders such as Murad Mahmudov will rely on this point to invalidate a conclusion suggesting that Bitcoin has lost momentum and turned bearish. Over the weekend Mahmudov tweeted:

“People out here be talking about the Weekly MACD ‘bear cross’ like it’s some kind of doom verdict. Ironically it marked the local bottom every single time during the last bull cycle.” 

After posting the above chart to support his argument, Mahmudov said: 

“I repeat for the last time. This is a BULL market.” 

While we are less confident about speaking in absolutes — especially given Bitcoin’s tendency to go against analyst’s interpretations and rip investors’ shirts off — it is worthwhile to consider bullish and bearish possibilities in order to make wise decisions and have a gameplan in case a trade goes belly up. 

Bollinger Bands are tightening

Over the short-term, data from the daily Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) suggests BTC could drop to 8,750 to $7,500. The $7,500 level is a short distance away from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $7,250. A number of analysts have stressed the importance of the 61.8% fib retracement level, especially after assets correct from a parabolic advance. 

Sell volume is outpacing purchasing volume on the daily and 4-hour chart but overall volume is drawing down and the Bollinger bands are tightening. This usually happens before Bitcoin price makes a sharp move. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle and a bull break could see BTC set daily higher high at $11,400 followed by an attempt at $11,790, which aligns with the upper arm of the larger bull pennant. 

Golden Ratio Multiplier suggests accumulation in full swing

A more comprehensive indicator to use when assessing Bitcoin’s maco market structure and price action is Philip Swift’s Golden Ratio Multiplier. The tool tracks Bitcoin’s long-term price action along the 350 daily moving average, then multiplies the 350 DMA by the golden ratio (1.68) and numbers in the Fibonacci sequence (1,2,3,5,8,13,21). 

According to Swift, the Golden Ratio Multiplier achieves the following: 

• Accurately and consistently highlights intra-cycle highs and lows for Bitcoin price;

• Picks out every market cycle top in Bitcoin’s history;

• Forecasts when BTC/USD will top out in the coming market cycle.

Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier: Source: Philip Swift

Currently, Bitcoin is pinned beneath the green (350DMA x 1.6) and red (350DMA x 2) averages with red representing a “low bull” phase and green standing for “accumulation.” Given that BTC is trading near $10,200 and riding along the green line at the time of writing, the indicator suggests that Bitcoin is still in an accumulation phase. 

Historically the red (350 DMA x 2) average has functioned as a good point to take profit and most recently the tool called the $13,800 and $12,900 M top for Bitcoin. 

The Golden Ratio Multiplier seems well suited to momentum (swing) traders who prefer not to stare at charts day-trading all day. 

According to Swift: 

“Using three moving average lines (350DMA x 1.6, X2, X3) has allowed us to pick out almost every single intra-cycle price high in Bitcoin’s history.” 

Indicators converging on the Bakkt launch date

Taking a quick glance at Bitcoin’s daily chart, 4-hr and 1-hr chart and one will see a procession of bull pennants (symmetrical triangles) and ascending wedges in all variety of sizes. At the moment Bitcoin trades within a massive pennant extending from the June 26, 2019-high at $13,800 until the current price near $10,000. 

Interestingly, following the triangle arms to their convergence point brings one to September 23, the same day Bakkt officially launches. 

Bitcoin price neatly consolidates within the symmetrical triangle and if one takes time to zoom in on the 4-hour and 1-hr time frame, they will find breakouts and breakdowns have been the result of smaller bull pennants and bearish ascending wedges. 

The second pennant within a pennant that we will focus on extends from $11,500 until the current price at $10,115. Consolidation within the triangle is just as neat as its larger counterpart and traders anticipate a strong move as BTC price narrows toward the triangle vertex. 

Coincidentally, the termination of this pennant aligns with the current state of indecision within the market from a technical and sentiment-based point of view. Bitcoin is on the verge of doing something big, but it is difficult to calculate whether the move will be bullish or bearish. 

Bullish scenario

A bullish scenario could see Bitcoin price drop to lower triangle arm ($9,685), which is closely aligned with the lower arm of the Bollinger band indicator at $9,500. 

An oversold bounce and purchasing volume from this point could see Bitcoin begin its journey back to the 20-MA of the BB ($10,570) and an encouraging move above this point would see Bitcoin set a daily higher high at $11,400 which is close to the upper arm of the BB indicator. 

Extending a tad bit further would allow Bitcoin to touch the upper arm of the symmetrical triangle. 

Bearish scenario

A bearish move would see Bitcoin price drop from the pennant, below the lower BB arm (below $9,500). 

The VPVR shows a lack of buyer demand in this zone and this suggests that a dip below $9,500-9,100 could bring BTC below the 61.8% Fib retracement for a possible oversold bounce near $8,200. 

Barring a reversal at this juncture, BTC could then drop to the next demand zone at $8,000 to $7,650. 

3 key indicators to consider

Of course, no man has a working crystal ball. But referring to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier and Bollinger Bands to analyze the market on multiple time frames does assist with anticipating the direction of the next move. 

Technical analysis is merely a guide, not a fortune-telling method. It’s the duty of each investor to conduct their own research and determine which choice is most appropriate for their appetite for risk. 

This is the dilemma all investors are faced with isn’t it?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZmR5jL Tyler Durden

Shocking new claims about Michael Bloomberg’s treatment of women have surfaced in a new upcoming book, “The Many Lives of Michael Bloomberg: Innovation, Money and Politics”, that is set to be released on September 10, according to the Daily Mail.

The 77 year old, who is worth upwards of $55 billion, was once accused of telling a female employee to “kill it” after she revealed she was pregnant. He reportedly also said he would “do her” about a woman while in a deposition and was accused by another woman of calling women “meat”. 

“If women wanted to be appreciated for their brains, they’d go to the library instead of to Bloomingdale’s’,” Bloomberg is also reported to have said. 

In fact, the book claims that Bloomberg’s sexist jokes and sayings were so ubiquitous around the office that a “joke compendium” of them was passed around by his employees. Called “Borscht Belt Standbys”, his jokes were often dismissed as blunders by his aides. 

The book claims that in private, Bloomberg could be “raunchy with a full repertoire of old jokes that were sometimes edgy and sometimes slipped over the edge”. It claims Bloomberg would comment about “women’s cleavage” and “proclamations  that females need to wear high heels”. 

It also details how, in the 1990’s, four women filed sexual harassment suits against Bloomberg LP, including a sales executive who claimed Bloomberg told her to to “kill” her unborn baby. Bloomberg was supposedly upset that she was the 16th woman at the firm to go on maternity leave. 

Bloomberg also, when seeing the woman’s wedding ring, asked her:

“What, is the guy dumb and blind? What the hell is he marrying you for?”.

After a week, he apparently told the same woman:

“Still engaged? What, is he that good in bed, or did your father pay him to get rid of you?”

Bloomberg LP said that Bloomberg had denied saying “kill it,” taken a lie detector test and passed.

The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission sued Bloomberg LP in 2007, claiming that the company “fostered and perpetuated” a hostile environment for women. The Federal lawsuit was thrown out 4 year later, although some claims were allowed to continue, with the case ending in 2015. 

“[Chief] Judge [Loretta] Preska would dismiss charges of discrimination against Bloomberg in a sweeping and pointed sixty-four page order,” the book says. 

When Bloomberg ran for Mayor in 2001, he came under scrutiny when his rival pointed out a book, “The Portable Bloomberg: The Wit and Wisdom of Michael Bloomberg”, that was created in-house at Bloomberg’s firm. It was a compilation of quips, including Bloomberg saying about the British royal family:

“The (British) Royal family – what a bunch of misfits – a gay, an architect, that horsey faced lesbian, and a kid who gave up Koo Stark for some fat broad.”

He also reportedly said:

“The three biggest lies are: the check’s in the mail, I’ll respect you in the morning, and I’m glad I’m Jewish.”

Another line said: “I know for a fact that any self-respecting woman who walks past a construction site and doesn’t get a whistle will turn around and walk past again and again until she does get one.”

During his term as mayor, his “comedy act” continued. He reportedly said at a book signing for the city’s gay media elite:

“I haven’t seen so many guys since there was a Ricky Martin book signing.” 

“You should see what’s in my closet,” he continued, talking about a pink sweater he was wearing at the time. 

Former New York city speaker Christine Quinn also claimed that Bloomberg once made degrading comments about her appearance, stating:

“Do you pay a lot to make your hair be two colors? Because now it’s three with the gray.”

According to a male journalist, Bloomberg once said, “Look at the ass on her,” about a woman in a tight gown. 

But he didn’t seem to deny everything, however, with his staff saying in a statement to the Daily Mail:

“People should buy the book and read it for themselves to see why historian Doris Kearns Goodwin calls it a ‘first rate study of leadership in business, politics and philanthropy.’ As stated in the book, these charges were either denied or dismissed many years ago.”

Apparently, Bloomberg actually likes the book so much that he is sending it to friends and urging them to read it. 

Bloomberg is best known for the Bloomberg Terminal software, which revolutionized Wall Street by giving traders faster access to data. The Bloomberg name has also expanded into a news wire service, a TV channel and philanthropy, which has given away more than $8 billion. 

For more on the book, you can read the Daily Mail’s full longform writeup. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2zw6v64 Tyler Durden

Two days ago, we reported that the Russell Clark, the CIO of Horseman Global, “the world’s most bearish hedge fund”, had one big question in his latest investor letter: “why are people not more bearish?” Here one could argue that just like Ray Dalio (whose Pure Alpha fund has been suffering from a variety of wrong-way bets), Clark is merely talking his book: after all, being down 22% YTD would certainly prompt questions why more people don’t see the world in a similar way.

And yet his question is legitimate: after all between Hong Kong, the US-China trade war, Germany in recession, Europe on the verge of recession, a no-deal Brexit, renewed Italian political chaos, a record amount of negative yielding debt, and central banking facing an existential moment, one may also ask how anyone has a bullish view on risk assets.

Addressing just this issue is Nomura’s quant strategist, Masanari Takada, who in a note published overnight asking “Why a risk-off mood is not gaining traction”, points out that investor sentiment has been ebbing and flowing (although he does caution that if historical patterns in sentiment are anything to go by, we think sentiment is at risk of heading lower through around 2 September). That said, his impression is that it is hard to get a good read on the direction of sentiment, “as there seems to be just as little incoming negative news as positive news.”

In an attempt to answer this overarching question, one has to look at the positioning of the various speculative actors in the market. Here, a survey of the supply/demand landscape among various short-term market participants reveals that “trading stances are still far from uniform even within a given strategy.”

Instead, “a precarious balance has emerged”, with pessimistic trades by CTAs (selling stocks, buying bonds) at the moment being “neatly countered by opposing trades made by global macro hedge funds and other investors that trade mainly on fundamentals”, according to Takada.

Meanwhile, the fact that risk-parity funds are refraining from deleveraging seems to be lending some stability to the credit market. What this tells Nomura, is that a risk-off mood that might otherwise have developed is failing to gain traction on account of:

1. surprisingly healthy incoming macroeconomic data; and
2. the risk of a credit crunch being systematically contained.

A deeper dive into the positioning of key market players reveals the following:

The stance of trend-chasing CTAs is still to sell equity futures and buy bond futures. The volume of trend-following trading is gradually increasing. Of course, the short positions in Hong Kong equities and the long positions in US bonds are starting to look like cases of momentum herding. Nevertheless, we do not expect to see much systematic unwinding of these positions unless the Hang Seng index approaches 26,640 (our estimate of the break-even line for net selling since late July) or 10yr UST yields approach 1.56% (the break-even line for net buying of TY since the beginning of August).

In terms of factor trends, factor-oriented investors are staying away from high-beta names (although trading on 28 August marked an exception to the pattern). It appears they are quietly and gradually adjusting their positioning on the assumption of a coming global economic slowdown.

Global macro hedge funds, on the other hand, are still bullish on fundamentals, seemingly skeptical of the idea that a global recession is on the way. One reason for this, presumably, is that macroeconomic indicators have been holding up surprisingly well in the US and in the Asia-Pacific region (manifesting in improvement in the economic surprise index). Global macro hedge funds are for the moment closing out existing short positions in Asian equities (Japan excepted).

It appears that risk-parity funds are not engaging in much deleveraging. By increasing what they allocate to high-yield bonds, risk-parity funds are making purchases that appear to be keeping the credit market less agitated than it might be otherwise.

So with major trading groups apparently deadlocked, how can one assess the risk of a second “vol-up” wave, of the kind Nomura predicted last week, is coming?

While it is true that trading signals are not perfectly consistent within any given trading strategy, Takada writes today that “it does seem that thin trading has allowed opposing strategies to leave the market deadlocked.” As a result, any second vol-up wave would depend on trend-following players getting out in front with pessimistic trades, in response to either fresh negative news or a combination of a pullback in the bullish stance of fundamentals-oriented investors and deleveraging by risk-parity funds. However, if a second vol-up wave were to stay away, then CTAs and other investors waiting for a stock sell-off could lose patience and wind down some of their pessimistic trades.

So absent negative shocks is the market set to soar? Not necessarily, because one of the key marginal price-setters, hedge funds, are unlikely to go all in as their “risk appetite seems likely to remain low.” According to Nomura, when looking at hedge funds as a whole, “risk appetite is likely to remain low.” That is unlikely to change as Takada is not seeing any of the three events that would likely be interpreted as game changers, namely i) realistic expectations for a US-China trade agreement, ii) a virtual promise from the Fed to cut its policy interest rate by 50bp or more, or iii) the cobbling together of a coordinated fiscal policy response.

Meanwhile, with the market stuck in a tight range…

…. a growing number of short-term investors also look to be waiting on the sidelines, and as the bearish Nomura quant trader concludes, “we continue to believe that these investors are more likely to chase trends in a risk-off direction than in a risk-on direction.”

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