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Via Cliff Mass Weather and Climate blog,

During the recent presidential debate, a number of candidates suggested that global warming represents an existential threatto mankind, and thus requires dramatic and immediate action.

Governor Jay Inslee has been particularly generous in the use of this term, but he is not alone.  Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have said the same thing, as have several media outlets and environmental interest groups.

Some of these folks also claim that the window for action on climate change is closing–Jay Inslee suggests that the next president will be the last able to take effective steps.  Others suggest 10 or 12 years.

But are these existential threat claims true?  That is what we will examine in this blog.

An existential threat is one that threatens the very existence of mankind.    Something that is a simply a challenge or an inconvenience is not an existential threat. An existential threat must have the potential to undermine the very viability of human civilization.

As described below, global warming is a serious problem and its impacts will be substantial—but in no way does it seriously threaten our species or human civilization.  And with reasonable mitigation and adaptation,  mankind will continue to move forward—reducing poverty, living healthier lives, and stabilizing our population.

What do current climate models tell us?  These models are run under specific scenarios of emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (see figure).   In one, RCP8.5, we simply continue doing what we are doing, with escalating use of coal and oil.  Not much renewable energy.    Many believe this scenario is too pessimistic.  Much more reasonable is RCP 4.5, which has modestly increased emissions through 2040, declining after 2050.  I suspect this one will be closer to reality.

The implication of these emissions on global temperature is shown below based on a collection of climate models (CMIP-5).  Under the extreme scenario, the earth warms by about 4C, but for the reasonable one (RCP4.5), global warming is about 2C (3.6F).  This warming will not be uniform, being greater in the polar regions, less over the eastern oceans.

You will note the temperature rise in RCP 4.5 is relatively steady through around 2045 and then starts to gradually plateau out.  No sharp transitions, no falling off of a cliff, no sudden catastrophes.

I have run a large collection of high resolution climate simulations over the Northwest, driven by the aggressive RCP 8.5 scenario.   As shown for Seattle’s mean annual temperature below, there is a steady rise, again with no sudden changes that would be hard to adapt to.    Most NW folks will want to purchase an air conditioner for summer, but there is no threat to our existence, and winters will be more pleasant.

But what do official international and national evaluations project for the economic future?

First, let’s check the conclusions of the highly respect Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which  provides a consensus view of many scientists and nations. Their analysis (SR15, Chapter 3) quoted a paper by Yohe (2017) that found a U.S. GDP loss of 1.2% per degree of warming,   So with a 2 C global warming associated with RCP4.5,  we are talking about a 2.4% loss of national income in 2100.  Not a 2.4% loss from today’s levels, but 2.4% less of the substantially greater income in 2100.

What about the recently released Fourth National Climate Assessment, a document heavily cited by the U.S. environmental community?  Their analysis is that the damage to the U.S. economy in 2100 would be about a 1% loss (see below)  This is not a 1% loss from the current U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), but a 1% loss of the substantially great GDP in 2100.    We will be much richer in 2100,  and will lose 1 % of our GDP  because of global warming.  Doesn’t sound like the end of civilization, does it?

W. D. Nordhaus, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his study of the economic impacts of climate change, examined a large number of studies regarding the impacts of global warming on the world’s economy (see below).  He and his co-author (A Moffat) found that a 2C increase in global temperatures would result in 0-1% damage to the world economy in 2100. Doubling the warming would only increase the damage to around 3%.  Again, no existential threat.

Reading these numbers and considering the many reports backing them up, there clearly is no existential threat to either the U.S. or mankind from global warming, leaving one to wonder why are so many politicians, environmental activists, and lots of media are spreading this existential threat line.

And the above studies are not really considering the potential for major technical breakthroughs in energy generation (e.g., fusion), renewables energy sources, or carbon removal form the atmosphere (sequestration).   I believe that such advances are inevitable, just as no one in 1950 expected that 2000 would bring personal computers, cell phones, and more.

You also have to wonder whether scientists, politicians, and environmental folks really believe the existential threat warnings they throw around.   Many talk the talk, but most don’t walk the walk.

Presidential candidates with little chance of securing the nomination are flying back and forth around the country, resulting in enormous carbon footprints.   Climate scientists fly more for work and pleasure than anyone.   Many environmentalists oppose nuclear power, one of the technologies that could produce massive carbon-free energy.  And several local Washington State environmental groups opposed a revenue-neutral, bipartisan carbon tax initiative (I-732)

Global warming is a real issue and we are going to slowly warm our planet, resulting in substantial impacts (like less snowpack in the Cascades, increased river flooding in November, drier conditions in the subtropics, loss of Arctic sea ice).    But the world will be a much richer place in 2100 and mankind will find ways to adapt to many of the changes.   And there is a good chance we will develop the technologies to reverse the increasing trend in greenhouse gases and eventually bring CO2 concentrations down to previous levels.

Global warming does not offer an existential threat to mankind, and politicians and decision makers only undermine their credibility and make effective action less likely by their hype and exaggeration.  And their unfounded claims of future catastrophe prevents broad national consensus and hurts vulnerable people who are made anxious and fearful.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2MWRnGI Tyler Durden

In her first interview since Jeffrey Epstein was found dead in his Manhattan jail cell of an apparent suicide Saturday morning, Julie K Brown, the Miami Herald investigative reporter whose reporting led to the latest bevy of criminal charges against the convicted pedophile, told MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle said she believes Epstein manipulated the prison staff to have himself removed from suicide watch and have his roommate removed from his cell…giving him the opportunity to take his own life.

Julie K Brown

Ruhle’s first question to Brown – who appeared on a panel with a pair of criminal justice experts – was how did she react to the news of Epstein’s death.

“I just couldn’t believe it and I just said ‘no, that couldn’t be right’.…everybody thought the same thing ‘wasn’t he under suicide watch and how could somebody under suicide watch commit suicide?’ We now know that he manipulated things to get off of suicide watch.”

You think he manipulated things to get off of suicide watch?

“I do. It doesn’t surprise me that he was able to manipulate things to get more time to himself.”

“And as for his victims…this represents another example to them of how the criminal justice system is broken.”

This certainly is going to fuel the conspiracy theories it’s going to be interesting to see how this unfolds…in the end I wouldn’t be surprised to see that Epstein charmed a mental health professional to give him the space to commit suicide.

Will the reporting on Epstein’s pedophile ring end with his death? Brown doesn’t think so.

“There’s a lot of documents out there…we don’t know completely what US Attorney Geoffrey Berman has but there’s definitely a paper trial. He will prosecute other people who were involved.”

Next, Ruhle asked Brown about the whereabouts of Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s ‘madame’ who allegedly groomed many of his victims? Why is it that people still don’t know where she is?

“I can’t really answer that question,” Brown said. “She does have dual citizenship with the UK, and she has been associated in recent years with many Oceanographers, so there’s been speculation that she could be on a submarine somewhere.”

During the discussion about how Epstein managed to get himself alone in his cell, one of the other panel participants said that “for an inmate to kill somebody like Jeffrey Epstein would be a badge of honor. He should have been single-celled the entire time. He should have been on suicide watch the entire time. Those are the two things I see where the agency went wrong, very frankly.”

As for next steps, Brown said she’s going to keep following the paper trail of evidence, particularly the latest document dump that hit just hours before Epstein allegedly took his own life.

“I’m going to keep following the trail of evidence that we’ve dug up with these documents that came out the other day…there are new names of people who were alleged to have been involved and also I think everybody is hoping that new people involved with this will come forward.”

Do you think they will?

“At first I thought they would with him being gone because many told me they didn’t want to speak because they had an NDA then  I though well maybe now how effective will those agreements be but with all of these conspiracy theories out there maybe they’re thinking if this could happen to him maybe something similar could happen to them.”

Watch the full interview below:

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Z3nXNs Tyler Durden

Via CaseyResearch.com,

It’s an unfortunate historical anomaly that people think about the paper in their wallets as money. The dollar is, technically, a currency. A currency is a government substitute for money. But gold is money.

Now, why do I say that?

Historically, many things have been used as money. Cattle have been used as money in many societies, including Roman society. That’s where we get the word “pecuniary” from: the Latin word for a single head of cattle is pecus. Salt has been used as money, also in ancient Rome, and that’s where the word “salary” comes from; the Latin for salt is sal (or salis). The North American Indians used seashells. Cigarettes were used during WWII. So, money is simply a medium of exchange and a store of value.

By that definition, almost anything could be used as money, but obviously, some things work better than others; it’s hard to exchange things people don’t want, and some things don’t store value well. Over thousands of years, the precious metals have emerged as the best form of money. Gold and silver both, though primarily gold.

There’s nothing magical about gold. It’s just uniquely well-suited among the 92 naturally occurring elements for use as money… in the same way aluminum is good for airplanes or uranium is good for nuclear power.

There are very good reasons for this, and they are not new reasons. Aristotle defined five reasons why gold is money in the 4th century BCE (which may only have been the first time it was put down on paper). Those five reasons are as valid today as they were then.

When I give a speech, I often offer a prize to the audience member who can tell me the five classical reasons gold is the best money. Quickly now – what are they? Can’t recall them? Read on, and this time, burn them into your memory.

Money

If you can’t define a word precisely, clearly and quickly, that’s proof you don’t understand what you’re talking about as well as you might. The proper definition of money is as something that functions as a store of value and a medium of exchange.

Government fiat currencies can, and currently do, function as money. But they are far from ideal. What, then, are the characteristics of a good money? Aristotle listed them in the 4th century BCE. A good money must be all of the following:

• Durable: A good money shouldn’t fall apart in your pocket nor evaporate when you aren’t looking. It should be indestructible. This is why we don’t use fruit for money. It can rot, be eaten by insects, and so on. It doesn’t last.

• Divisible: A good money needs to be convertible into larger and smaller pieces without losing its value, to fit a transaction of any size. This is why we don’t use things like porcelain for money – half a Ming vase isn’t worth much.

• Consistent: A good money is something that always looks the same, so that it’s easy to recognize, each piece identical to the next. This is why we don’t use things like oil paintings for money; each painting, even by the same artist, of the same size and composed of the same materials is unique. It’s also why we don’t use real estate as money. One piece is always different from another piece.

• Convenient: A good money packs a lot of value into a small package and is highly portable. This is why we don’t use water for money, as essential as it is – just imagine how much you’d have to deliver to pay for a new house, not to mention all the problems you’d have with the escrow. It’s also why we don’t use other metals like lead, or even copper. The coins would have to be too huge to handle easily to be of sufficient value.

• Intrinsically valuable: A good money is something many people want or can use. This is critical to money functioning as a means of exchange; even if I’m not a jeweler, I know that someone, somewhere wants gold and will take it in exchange for something else of value to me. This is why we don’t – or shouldn’t – use things like scraps of paper for money, no matter how impressive the inscriptions upon them might be.

Actually, there’s a sixth reason Aristotle should have mentioned, but it wasn’t relevant in his age, because nobody would have thought of it… It can’t be created out of thin air.

Not even the kings and emperors who clipped and diluted coins would have dared imagine that they could get away with trying to use something essentially worthless as money.

These are the reasons why gold is the best money. It’s not a gold bug religion, nor a barbaric superstition. It’s simply common sense. Gold is particularly good for use as money, just as aluminum is particularly good for making aircraft, steel is good for the structures of buildings, uranium is good for fueling nuclear power plants, and paper is good for making books. Not money. If you try to make airplanes out of lead, or money out of paper, you’re in for a crash.

That gold is money is simply the result of the market process, seeking optimum means of storing value and making exchanges.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Z1QrTR Tyler Durden

According to an anonymous law enforcement official source, The New York Post reports that six foot tall Jeffrey Epstein was found hanging in his Lower Manhattan jail cell with a bedsheet wrapped around his neck and secured to the top of a bunk bed.

The convicted pedophile apparently killed himself by kneeling toward the floor and strangling himself with the makeshift noose, a law enforcement source said Monday.

We are no experts but a six foot tall man, kneeling with a makeshift noose made from bed sheets tied to the rail of the top bunk, would take some serious discipline to fight any survival reflex and actually ‘allow’ yourself to asphyxiate?

A little more difficult than an orange in your mouth and a plastic bag over your head we are sure.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2MSAyN4 Tyler Durden

Larry Summers has been telling any financial journalist who will listen that the bottom is about to fall out of the economy any minute now…but perhaps he has an ulterior motive for all of his economic doomsaying.

The former Harvard President and Clinton-era Treasury Secretary has been cited four times on the flight logs of Jeffrey Epstein’s ‘Lolita Express’. During his first trip, he was still working in the Clinton administration. And during his most recent – in 2005 – he and his wife accompanied Epstein to Epstein’s private island just days after their wedding.

During his first trip on Sept. 19, 1998, (while he was Treasury Secretary) Summers flew from the airport in Aspen, Colo. to Dulles international.

His second trip didn’t take place until April 15, 2004, when Summers flew from JFK to Bedford, Mass., an airport not far from Harvard, where he was president of the university at the time.

On his third trip, Summers flew from Bedford to White Plains for reasons that are unclear.

And during his fourth trip, Larry and Lisa Summers flew from Bedford to Epstein’s Island, and were accompanied by Epstein’s close confidant and alleged Madam Ghislaine Maxwell.

Summers is just one more member of the Clinton inner circle who was ‘exposed’ to Epstein thanks to these trips. And with more Epstein-related document dumps ahead, we may soon learn more about exactly what he was doing on those flights.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2yWHYqe Tyler Durden

Authored by Scott Ritter via The American Conservative,

There’s a good reason the presidential hopeful met with Assad, but the media doesn’t want to talk about it…

It was eight minutes of hell for Kamala Harris. Onstage at the second Democratic debate in Michigan, Harris was subjected to a blistering assault on her record as a California prosecutor at the hands of Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard.

Afterwards, Harris was asked about Gabbard’s attack by CNN’s Anderson Cooper.

“Listen,” she replied, “I think that this coming from someone who has been an apologist for an individual, [Syrian President Bashar al] Assad, who has murdered the people of his country like cockroaches. She has embraced and been an apologist for him in the way she refuses to call him a war criminal. I can only take what she says and her opinion so seriously, so I’m prepared to move on.”

Harris was referring to a controversial four-day visit by Gabbard to Syria in early January 2017, during which she met with Assad. While Gabbard’s performance during the debate was stellar (her name was the most searched of all the Democratic candidates), Harris’s jab regarding Assad seemed like all the mainstream media wanted to talk about.

“When sitting down with someone like Bashar al-Assad in Syria,” MSNBC’s Yasmin Vossoughian asked Gabbard, “do you confront him directly and say why do you order chemical attacks on your own people? Why do you cause the killings of over half a million people in your country?”

Tulsi’s road to Damascus has become an issue in her bid for the White House. To better understand how she found herself in this position, one needs to go back in time, to April 2003, when, while serving as a member of the Hawaiian State Legislature, a 23-year-old Gabbard enlisted in the Hawaii National Guard, and was assigned as a Medical Operations Specialist to the 29th Support Battalion’s Medical Company. When her unit was mobilized for service in Iraq, Gabbard (who was not called up) volunteered to be deployed, because, as she told a reporter in 2004, “I felt it was my duty as a soldier and a friend to join them in the service of our country.”

Following six months of strenuous pre-deployment training, Tulsi Gabbard deployed to Iraq in early 2005 as part of the 29th Brigade Combat Team, an all-National Guard/Reserve unit. She and the rest of the 29th Support Battalion were deployed to Camp Anaconda, a sprawling U.S. facility situated on the grounds of Balad Air Base, north of Baghdad. At the time, Camp Anaconda was under such frequent attack by insurgent mortar fire that it had acquired the nickname “Mortaritaville,” a play on a Jimmy Buffet song of a similar title.

Mortar and rocket attacks became an ever-present reality for the young Hawaiian soldier.

“Sometimes,” Gabbard told the Honolulu Advertiser, “we can go for days with no alarm siren going off, no attacks, and sometimes there can be many in one day…sometimes the attacks are so far away you can’t hear the explosion; other times so close that the ground and sky just seem to shake from the impact.” The feeling of helplessness was palpable: “all you can really do,” Gabbard said, “is say a silent prayer that you and your buddies are unharmed.”

While Charlie Med, as her unit was known, came through the deployment unscathed, 18 members of the 29th Brigade Combat Team were killed in Iraq, and scores more were wounded. “Every single day,” Tulsi Gabbard reminded her fellow Americans during the second Democratic debate in July, “I saw the high cost of war.”

The 29th Brigade Combat Team was deployed in Iraq at a time when Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, was engaged in an all-out war with U.S. forces. The casualties that Gabbard and her comrades endured were a result of “the fight that is ongoing every day in Iraq against these insurgent terrorists”; these losses, she noted, “we have felt in Hawai’i.” War for Tulsi Gabbard and her fellow soldiers wasn’t an abstraction, but an ever-present, horrible reality.

Gabbard returned from her year-long deployment a decorated combat veteran, having earned commendations and the coveted Combat Medic Badge for her service. Gabbard went on to graduate from Officer Candidate School and was trained as a Military Police Officer. Later she completed a second tour of duty in the Iraq theater, commanding a Military Police Company stationed in Kuwait.

For Gabbard, the road to Damascus began with her initial deployment to Iraq and continued through her 2009 deployment to Kuwait. Having enlisted in response to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, Gabbard instead found herself engaged in a “regime change” war in Iraq predicated on the lie of weapons of mass destruction. It then continued through the halls of Congress, following Gabbard’s successful bid for office in 2011. From her position as a member of the Armed Services Committee, she watched as the al-Qaeda enemy she’d fought in Iraq morphed into ISIS and spread its influence into Syria.

Over the next few years, Gabbard saw how the Obama administration began, in her words, “funneling weapons and money through Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and others who provide direct and indirect support to groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda” in an effort to overthrow the Assad regime. “If you or I gave money, weapons or support to al-Qaeda or ISIS,” Gabbard declared via Twitter, “we would be thrown in jail. Why does our gov get a free pass on this?”

For someone who watched her fellow soldiers die fighting al-Qaeda in 2005, the Obama policy of supporting terrorists, whether directly or indirectly, as part of a new regime change war against Syria was a betrayal of that sacrifice.

A vocal supporter of Senator Bernie Sanders during the 2016 presidential election, Gabbard opposed Hillary Clinton’s more hawkish policies on Syria. Following Clinton’s defeat at the hands of Donald Trump, she continued to flaunt the rules of political expediency, taking a meeting with the president-elect in order to discuss Syria and the fight against ISIS and al-Qaeda. “I felt it important to take the opportunity to meet with the president-elect now,” Gabbard noted at the time, “before the drumbeats of war that neocons have been beating drag us into an escalation of the war to overthrow the Syrian government.”

In January 2017, Tulsi embarked on her fateful visit to Syria. As she told CNN’s Jake Tapper during an interview after her return, she hadn’t planned on meeting with the Syrian president. When the opportunity presented itself, however, Gabbard stated that she went “because I felt it’s important that if we profess to truly care about the Syrian people, about their suffering, then we’ve got to be able to meet with anyone that we need to if there is a possibility that we could achieve peace, and that’s exactly what we talked about.”

“Obviously,” Tapper stated in response, “Bashar al-Assad is responsible for thousands of deaths and millions of people being displaced during this five-year long civil war. Did you have any compunctions about meeting with somebody like that, giving him any sort of enhanced credibility because a member of the United States Congress would meet with someone like that?”

“Whatever you think about President Assad,” Tulsi replied, “the fact is that he is the president of Syria. In order for any peace agreement, in order for any possibility of a viable peace agreement to occur, there has to be a conversation with him.”

In the aftermath of President Trump’s three meetings with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, Tulsi’s observations don’t seem quite as controversial. But at the time she was lambasted by her colleagues in Congress for ostensibly giving credence to Assad, whom they labeled a “brutal dictator.”

If the U.S. succeeded in overthrowing Assad, Tulsi knew, the very terrorists she’d fought against in Iraq would end up ruling Syria. Meeting with Assad to discuss the prospects of defeating a common enemy was the most meaningful way she could honor the service and sacrifice of her fellow soldiers. That the mainstream media and detractors like Kamala Harris don’t get this only underscores the deep divide between those like Tulsi Gabbard, who have served in combat, and those who have not.

Gabbard’s performances in the first two Democratic debates were strong, but it remains an open question as to whether she will qualify for the third debate in September. At a time when she should be campaigning hard to secure a spot on that debate stage, however, she’s instead taking a two-week break to fulfill her annual training requirement as an officer in the Hawaii National Guard.

Kamala Harris and the other Democratic candidates would do well to take note of the following reality—if the U.S. goes to war in Syria, Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere, Tulsi alone among her colleagues could be called upon to serve on the front line.

“The Congresswoman [Gabbard] is the most qualified and prepared candidate to serve as Commander in Chief, which I believe is the most important responsibility of the President,” Senator Mike Gravel, a Democrat who represented Alaska in the Senate from 1969 through 1981, noted in his letter endorsing Tulsi for president.

Gravel, an Army veteran, is perhaps most famous for placing the Pentagon Papers in the public record in 1971. A popular progressive voice for peace, his endorsement should not be taken lightly. Kamala Harris should take note.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2KFs6hm Tyler Durden

It looks as though something big was taking place around Area 51 over the weekend, according to “fragmented reports from various sources” compiled by The Drive. 

The report notes that “significant tests” could have been happening over the weekend after learning that Notices To Airman (NOTAMs) had been published that marked certain areas within the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) off limits to any air traffic at any altitude. 

The NOTAMs are generally for military aircrews, not civilian or commercial air traffic. They were first pointed out by an aviation enthusiast on Twitter.

I see a NOTAM for what appears to be a launch in R-4806E. I wonder if the aircraft was for launch support.

Also want to point out I did not hear the aircraft land at Nellis or Creech. If they did, I did not hear them contact Approach or Tower. pic.twitter.com/Zp71rfiAA0

— Bryan Herbert 🇺🇸 (@KE6ZGP) August 8, 2019

The area in question, R-4806 is “an elongated north-to-south block of restricted airspace that measures roughly 50 by 15 miles and sits south of the small community of Alamo and east of R-4806W.”

The area is noteworthy for a couple of reasons:

R-4806W includes Dog Bone Dry Lake. A number of air-to-ground targets and a MOUT facility that is often used for JTAC training and other ground and air asset integration exercises are located there. At the center of R-4806E, the restricted airspace in question, is Desert Dry Lake, but nothing is really located there or on the stretch of ground that sits below this airspace as a whole. It’s also worth noting that Desert Lake sits roughly 30 miles southeast of Groom Lake/Area 51.

Another NOTAM was posted for August 10th for the same airspace, beginning at 8PM local time. It was similar to the initial NOTAM in that it covered from the ground to “unlimited altitude”. 

Another NOTAM for R-4806E. The window opens at 8 PM Los Angeles time. Just like the other night the ceiling on this is unlimited indicating its some sort of launch. pic.twitter.com/wf8Nofvu0r

— Bryan Herbert 🇺🇸 (@KE6ZGP) August 11, 2019

Finally, another NOTAM was published spanning several days, starting on August 10 that also limits the same massive stretch of airspace. This NOTAM was for a “massive” block of restricted airspace on the “western flank of Area 51’s notorious no-go ‘box’ that hangs over the clandestine installation”. 

This NOTAM is active from midnight on August 11th, through 5:59AM on August 12. 

Another interesting NOTAM, this one is for R-4807A which separates Groom Lake (R-4808N) from Tonopah Test Range (R-4809) pic.twitter.com/bjq6YnVhSU

— Bryan Herbert 🇺🇸 (@KE6ZGP) August 11, 2019

In addition to these notices, there were also reports of odd “Janet flights” – the nickname for the nonstop flights to Area 51 from Las Vegas’ airport – by onlookers. This activity was described as “unusual” and is speculated to be indicative of a “major test event” near Area 51.

It’s well-known that the NTTR is used for all different types of training, test flights and classified exercises for new technology. And while setting aside airspace for tests may not be uncommon, this activity on the weekend, covering an unlimited altitude, is noteworthy.

The article notes that the NTTR usually doesn’t support traditional rocket testing, but some have suggested the obvious explanation of test rocket launches due to the unlimited altitude restrictions. Some have also noted that laser and other direct energy weapon systems could require fully sanitized airspace for safety concerns. The precautions could also just be for testing sensitive aircraft that could be capable of extreme altitudes.

There has also been some more exotic speculation:

Of course, there are many other potential explanations. They don’t call Area 51 “Dreamland” for nothing and its own relatively limited airspace would certainly get augmented by the surrounding ranges for expanded testing as required—especially on the weekends when normal military traffic is at a minimum. N-4807A also contains the Tolicha Peak Electronic Combat Range (ECR), a critical complex that is dotted with real and simulated enemy air defense and electronic warfare systems that is highly relevant to the development of future air combat systems and the fine-tuning of tactics and subsystems for ones that are already in operation. 

People have also speculated in recent years that secret testing around Area 51 has to do with the B-21 Raider’s development. Or, perhaps the government is simply gearing up for the “raid” on Area 51 that will supposedly take place in early September. 

Regardless, it was undoubtedly a busy weekend for one of the most mysterious and widely speculated about test ranges in the United States. We will follow this story closely for updates.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/31z6xpr Tyler Durden

Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via WirePoints.org,

There’s perhaps no indicator more damning of a state’s failure to govern than the flight of its residents to other states.

People of every stripe are leaving Illinois. Old and young, rich and poor. They are going to warm states and cold states, big states and small states. Overall, Illinois netted losses of residents to 43 other states in 2016.

That has major implications for the state and the Illinoisans who remain. A shrinking population means a future with less economic growth, less investment, falling real estate values and an eroded tax base. And as people leave, fewer residents will be left to pay down the state’s growing debts, meaning the already massive burden will only gets worse.

Illinois has netted a loss of 1.5 million people to other states since 2000, based on U.S. Census data. And as international immigration and births in Illinois have declined in recent years, they’re failing to make up for Illinois net outmigration. As a result, the state’s population has shrunk five years in a row. Wirepoints analysed the results of the census data in our report: Illinois’ Demographic Collapse. 

The following multi-part series will reveal just who is leaving, where they are going and what incomes they’re taking with them.

Wirepoints’ analysis uses national state-by-state migration data compiled by the Internal Revenue Service. The IRS reviews tax returns annually to track when and where people move. It also aggregates the ages, income brackets and adjusted gross incomes of filers. 

In this first piece, we’ll cover Illinois’ net loss of tax filers and their incomes since 2000. 

*  *  *

Losing people and their incomes 

Illinois is a national outlier when it comes to losing residents and their taxable income to other states.

In 2016, IRS data shows Illinois gained nearly 165,000 people from other states and they brought with them a combined Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) of about $6.3 billion. Meanwhile, more than 250,000 Illinoisans left the state and they took more than $11 billion with them.

That means Illinois suffered a net loss of about 86,000 residents and a loss of $4.8 billion in taxable income – the equivalent of more than $100 million in state income tax revenues.

And that doesn’t include the additional loss in sales, property and other taxes those residents no longer pay.

Illinois has lost tax filers and taxable income, on net, every year since 2000. Between 2000 and 2010, the state averaged net losses of about $1.8 billion in taxable income each year. Since then, the state’s losses have accelerated by about $500 million a year, growing to $4.8 billion by 2016.

The problem isn’t just that more people are leaving than coming into Illinois. It’s also that those who leave, on average, earn more than those moving in. That too is draining the state’s tax base.

In 2016, the average taxable income of people leaving Illinois was in excess of $81,000. The taxable income of those coming from other states was just over $67,000.

So not only did Illinois lose a net 86,000 people and their AGI, but it also lost an average of $14,000 in AGI for every person that moved into Illinois in 2016.

Illinois the outlier

How did Illinois rank nationally for loss of AGI? We’ll take that up in our next piece, but for now we’ll share how Illinois stacks up on a per capita basis.

Take Illinois’ $4.8 billion AGI loss divided by the state’s 12.8 million people and Illinois lost $371 in income per person in 2016. Only 5 states lost more AGI per capita, including Connecticut, New York and New Jersey.

In contrast, states that are winning people saw their tax base grow. Florida gained more than $800 in AGI per capita in 2016. Idaho and South Carolina, more than $400. Even neighboring cold-state Michigan gained $114 in AGI per capita.

Illinois out-migration situation is dismal. And the problem becomes even more stark when you look at the state’s record nationally over time. That’s the subject of Part 2 of this series.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2TqbNZT Tyler Durden

Even in death, Jeffrey Epstein continues to confound the authorities. According to the Daily Mail, FBI agents were spotted raiding the deceased pedophile/financier’s private island in the US Virgin Islands, Little St. James – or “Pedophile Island”, as it’s become known.

The Daily Mail captured footage of a dozen officers arriving on speedboats at the island’s peer, before decamping on golf carts to explore the property just two days after the billionaire’s suicide. Some agents were spotted on top of Epstein’s luxury home. All officials wore jackets with the letters ‘FBI’ in clear view.

The search follows the unsealing of 2,000 pages of documents by the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York. The documents detail some of the beyond lurid behavior that Epstein and his compatriots engaged in with young women.

A group of onlookers initially tipped off the Mail.

“I’m on a boat charter with guests. We are the only guests out here at the moment.”

“We were enjoying lunch when we saw over a dozen people getting off their speedboats and landing on the island.”

“When we looked harder, we could see the FBI logo on the backs of their shirts.”

“It didn’t take long for us to realize they must be conducting a raid on Epstein’s house.”

Epstein’s home, which has alternatively been called ‘Pedophile Island’ and ‘Orgy Island’ was allegedly home to a haram of underage sex slaves who serviced Epstein and his wealthy and famous friends.

The disgraced financier recently purchased the larger neighboring island – dubbed Great St. James – and had planned extensive renovations, which had only just begun.

Other officials with ‘FBI’ lettering on clear display were later seen overlooking the crystal blue sea from the top of Epstein’s remote luxury home off the coast of St Thomas.

The search comes after 2,000 pages of documents detailing the lurid allegations of his sexual abuse of underage girls were unsealed to the public on Friday, adding more fuel to the fire of the government’s case of sex trafficking against Epstein.

Of particular interest to certain corners of the Internet that have long suspected Epstein as the head of an international community of child abusers, is the island’s temple, which according to Internet lore, was a sort of barracks for Epstein’s sex slaves.

The island was listed at Epstein’s primary residence, though he owned some $150 million in property, including a tony Manhattan townhouse that was raided shortly after his arrest. Police reportedly found a trove of photos of underaged women.

While it’s unclear what investigators are looking for, AG William Barr made it clear in a statement delivered after Epstein’s death that the investigation is shifting to those who helped Epstein carry out his nefarious schemes, including his alleged ‘madame’, socialite Ghislaine Maxwell, whose whereabouts are unknown.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZVdzVn Tyler Durden

On the same day Russia belatedly admitted that the mystery explosion which released radiation into the air last Thursday – and had triggered warning alerts across towns in northern Russia – involved a “small-scale nuclear reactor”, President Trump tweeted concern over the radiation leakage.

Radiation levels had spiked to 20 times their normal levels after the incident at a military testing ground in Russia’s Arkhangelsk region, prompting an emergency response team to deploy in full nuclear radiation protective gear, as photos which came out in the aftermath appeared to show.

The United States is learning much from the failed missile explosion in Russia. We have similar, though more advanced, technology. The Russian “Skyfall” explosion has people worried about the air around the facility, and far beyond. Not good!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 12, 2019

“The United States is learning much from the failed missile explosion in Russia,” Trump stated late in the day Monday. He added concern over the “air around the facility” which area residents have been exposed to and could possibly impact neighboring areas. 

We have similar, though more advanced, technology. The Russian “Skyfall” explosion has people worried about the air around the facility, and far beyond. Not good!

Consistent with early speculation, western defense officials and analysts now believe it was a failed test of a Russian nuclear powered cruise missile.

One US defense analysts has pointed to “an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile known in Russia as the 9M730 Burevestnik and by Nato as the SSC-X-9 Skyfall” — precisely the type of nuclear-powered weapon Putin had previously touted among Russia’s developing hypersonic arsenal in a 2018 speech. This is the “Skyfall” reference Trump made in his tweet.

Though within two days following last Thursday’s accident – believed to have happened on a sea platform, which resulted in an area of a White Sea port being shut down – Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom, admitted it had been testing an “isotope power source in a liquid propulsion system,” there’s now greater confirmation it involved a cutting edge hypersonic cruise missile. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/31Bw1Tf Tyler Durden