Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

With a full slate of central bank meetings, data (including payrolls Friday) and earnings next week there’s a little bit for everyone. On Thursday, according to Politico, we will also know who the next Fed Chair is as well as get a first look at a version of the House tax bill in the US, perhaps on Wednesday.

In terms of the scheduled events, front and center we’ve got the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Fed (Wednesday) and Bank of England (Thursday) policy meetings all due in a three day window. Only the BoE is expected to change policy though with a 25bp hike to 0.5% the consensus on the street.

In terms of the Fed, while there is no Yellen press conference scheduled we may get clues in the statement as to whether the Fed is on track to raise rates in December.

Over at the BoJ, Governor Kuroda will make a scheduled press conference post the meeting so keep an eye on that.

With regards to the economic data next week, Monday’s just reported September PCE report in the US was closely watched with a modest +0.1% mom core reading expected (it printed at 0.1%, in line with expectations), while attention will also fall on Germany’s flash CPI report for October. We’ll get the wider Euro area report on Tuesday where the consensus is for no change in the +1.1% yoy core reading. In the US we also get ADP, ISM, and trade balance. We also have FOMC rate decision and Fed speakers in the schedule. 

In the Eurozone, we wait for unemployment, GDP, CPI, PMI and ECB speakers. In the UK, main focus is on BoE rate decision but we also have PMIs

Scattered throughout the week will be the final October PMIs, while we end the week with a bit of a bang on Friday with the October employment report in the US and that ever important nonfarm payrolls print. Current market expectations is for a bounceback 310k reading following that -33k slide in September. A +0.2% mom average hourly earnings reading is also expected.

Earnings wise next week we’ve got 136 S&P 500 companies scheduled including Apple on Thursday while 58 Stoxx 600 companies are due.

The full breakdown charted below, courtesy of BofA

DB’s Jim Reid has a day by day summary of key events:

  • Monday: A big day for inflation readings with the September PCE and personal spending reports in the US and flash October CPI report in Germany being the highlights. October confidence indicators for the Euro area and September money and credit aggregates data in the UK will also be worth watching, while the October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity reading in the US will also be out this afternoon. Late tonight we get industrial production and jobless rate data in Japan. Politics wise, Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to meet leaders of the Free Democrats and Greens in the latest round of exploratory talks on forming a government.
  • Tuesday: The most significant overnight event is the BoJ monetary policy meeting along with the release of the Bank’s quarterly outlook report. Governor Kuroda’s press conference is due to follow shortly after. Meanwhile notable data includes the October PMIs in China, the flash October CPI print for the Euro area and France, advance Q3 GDP report for the Euro area and consumer confidence for the UK for October. In the US the Q3 employment cost index, October Chicago PMI, October consumer confidence and August S&P/Case-Shiller house price index is amongst the data due. The ECB’s Visco and Padoan are also due to speak while UK Brexit Secretary David Davis is questioned by the House of Lords EU Committee about the state of Brexit talks. BP and BNP Paribas are amongst the companies reporting results.
  • Wednesday: Front and centre on Wednesday evening will be the FOMC meeting although it’s worth noting that there is no scheduled Yellen press conference after. Along with the meeting we’ll also get some important data releases in the US including the ADP employment change report for October, ISM manufacturing print for October and October vehicle sales. Prior to this, in Asia the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China and Nikkei manufacturing PMI in Japan are due, while in the UK October house price data and the manufacturing PMI for October will be out. Away from that, UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox testifies before a parliamentary panel on plans for post-Brexit trade while BoJ Deputy Governor Nakaso is due to speak. In the US, the initial version of the tax plans should be released for further debates. Facebook and Tesla are amongst the notable earnings reports.
  • Thursday: Another central bank meeting should hog the spotlight with the BoE meeting outcome due around lunchtime. BoE Governor Carney will follow while the Bank’s latest inflation report will also be released alongside. Datawise we’ll receive the final October PMI revisions in Europe along with the October unemployment print in Germany and initial jobless claims and Q3 nonfarm productivity and until labour costs in the US. The Fed’s Bostic is also due to speak along with the IMF’s Lagarde. Apple and Credit Suisse are amongst the notable corporate reporters.
  • Friday: A busy end to the week for data. The highlight will likely be this afternoon with the October employment report in the US including the latest monthly nonfarm payrolls print. China’s remaining Caixin PMIs for October, the UK’s remaining October PMIs and the ISM non-manufacturing, final durable and capital goods orders for September, factory orders for September and the final PMIs in the US round out the data. The Fed’s Kashkari will also speak in the afternoon and the ECB’s Coeure in the evening. President Trump is also due to depart on his 11-day trip to Asia.

Finally, looking at just the US, here are the key events together with consensus expectations…

… and a full breakdown from Goldman:

The key economic releases this week are the personal income and spending report on Monday, ISM manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The statement from the October/November FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, and there are a few speaking engagements by Fed officials later this week.

Monday, October 30

  • 8:30 AM Personal income, September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Personal spending, September (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.1%); PCE price index, September (GS +0.39%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index, September (GS +0.14%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); PCE price index (yoy), September (GS +1.65%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.4%); Core PCE price index (yoy), September (GS +1.34%, consensus +1.3%, last +1.3%): We estimate a 1.1% increase in September personal spending (nominal, mom sa), reflecting a post-hurricane rebound in retail spending and auto sales, as well as a boost from higher gas prices. Based on details in the GDP, PPI, and CPI reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index increased 0.14% month-over-month in September, or +1.34% from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index rose 0.39% in September, or +1.65% from a year earlier. We estimate a 0.4% increase in personal income.
  • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, October (consensus 21.3, last 21.3)

Tuesday, October 31

  • 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q3 (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.5%): We estimate that growth in the employment cost index (ECI) accelerated to 0.7% in Q3, with the year-over-year pace rising a tenth to +2.5%. Our forecast reflects diminished labor market slack and a boost from expected mean-reversion in the pace of growth in incentive-paid industries, particularly sales and related occupations. Wage growth also firmed in the third quarter, and our wage tracker—which distills signals from several wage measures—rose to 2.8% year-on-year in Q3 from 2.6% in Q2.
  • 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to increase further by 0.4% in August, following a 0.3% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which was 5.9% in July.
  • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, October (GS 62.5, consensus 60.0, last 65.2): We expect the Chicago PMI to moderate 2.7pt to 62.5 following a 6.3pt gain in the prior month. The index is likely to remain at levels consistent with expansion in business activity.
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, September (GS 119.5, consensus 120.0, last 122.9): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index pulled back 3.4pt in September following a 5.6pt increase over the previous two months. Our forecast reflects sequential deterioration in higher frequency consumer surveys as well as scope for hurricane related weakness.

Wednesday, November 1

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, October (GS +135k, consensus +200k, last +135k): We expect a 135k increase in ADP payroll employment in October, reflecting a large drag from the September nonfarm payroll decline that is an input into ADP’s model. The report is likely to be difficult to interpret as a result, particularly because it could also be affected by the net strength in other financial and economic indicators used in the model.
  • 09:45 AM Markit US Manufacturing PMI, October (consensus 53.1, last 54.5)
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, September (GS flat, consensus -0.2%, last +0.5%): We expect construction spending to be flat in September following a 0.5% gain in the August report, likely reflecting the impact of recent hurricanes on construction activity.
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, October (GS 60.0, consensus 59.6, last 60.8): Regional manufacturing surveys have strengthened on net in October, while other measures of business confidence were more mixed. Overall, our manufacturing survey tracker moved up 0.9pt to 60.5 in October. We expect the ISM manufacturing index to decline 0.8pt to 60.0, following a 4.5pt gain over the last two months, but it will likely remain at levels consistent with a firm pace of expansion in business activity.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, Oct 31-Nov 1 meeting: We expect the FOMC to keep policy unchanged next week and see few substantive changes to the statement. We expect a slightly more upbeat tone on growth that acknowledges the disruptions from the hurricanes but characterizes them as temporary or in the past tense, as we think Fed officials will view the data released over the inter-meeting period as broadly encouraging. Despite the disappointing September CPI report, we do not expect a downgrade of the inflation assessment or outlook, reflecting broadly stable year-over-year inflation and the further decline in the unemployment rate. We also expect the committee will continue to describe the risks to the outlook as “roughly balanced,” but there is a possibility that the statement upgrades the assessment of growth risks to “balanced” and leaves the inflation language unchanged (“closely monitoring”).
  • 5:00 PM Total vehicle sales, October (GS 17.7mn, consensus 17.5mn, last 18.5mn): Domestic vehicle sales, October (GS 13.7mn, consensus 13.7mn, last 14.3mn)

Thursday, November 2

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity (qoq saar), Q3 preliminary (GS +3.2%, consensus +2.5%, last +1.5%); Unit labor costs, Q3 preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%): We estimate non-farm productivity increased 3.2% in Q3 (qoq ar), well above the 0.75% average achieved during this expansion. We expect unit labor costs – compensation per hour divided by output per hour – to increase 0.6% (qoq saar).
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 28 (GS 230k, consensus 235k, last 233k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 21 (consensus 1,897k, last 1,893k): We estimate initial jobless claims fell 3k to 230k in the week ended October 28. Our forecast reflects additional post-hurricane normalization in Florida filings, which have retraced most of their earlier increases. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have resumed their downtrend, falling to a new year-to-date low in the week ended October 21.

    08:30 AM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Powell will deliver introductory remarks at the Alternative Reference Rates Committee’s roundtable event in New York. No Q&A is expected.

  • 12:20 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give closing remarks at the Alternative Reference Rates Committee’s roundtable event in New York. No Q&A is expected.
  • 06:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will take part in a panel on “The Vital Role of Government Statistics” at the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management’s 39th Annual Fall Research Conference in Chicago. Audience Q&A is expected.

Friday, November 3

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, October (GS +325k, consensus +310k, last -33k); Private payroll employment, October (GS +310k, consensus +300k, last -40k); Average hourly earnings (mom), October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.5%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), October (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.9%); Unemployment rate, October (GS 4.2%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rebounded 325k in October, following a 33k decline in September and compared to three- and six-month moving averages of 185k and 160k, respectively. Our forecast reflects a 150k boost from workers returning to their jobs after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which weighed heavily on September payrolls based on the state-level breakdown. Relatedly, we note that electricity usage in Florida and Texas had returned to normal levels by mid-September, several weeks before the October survey period. We also believe the underlying pace of job growth remains firm, as jobless claims fell to a 44-year low in the survey week and our service-sector employment tracker rose to a 2-year high in October. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, as the two-tenths drop last month was not driven by unusual declines in hurricane-affected areas. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, September (GS -$43.5bn, consensus -$43.3bn, last -$42.4bn): We estimate the trade deficit widened by $1.1bn in September. The Advance Economic Indicators report last week showed a wider goods trade deficit, and we also expect a pickup in services imports following lackluster growth in recent months.
  • 09:45 AM Markit US Services PMI, October (consensus 55.3, last 55.9)
  • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, October (GS 59.0, consensus 58.5, last 59.8): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to move down 0.8pt to 59.0 in the October report, following a 4.5pt gain in September. A post-hurricane rebound in construction, mining, and retail is likely to offset some moderation following a big September boost. Overall, our non-manufacturing survey tracker decreased by 0.3pt to 56.7 in October.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, September (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.2%, last +1.2%); Durable goods orders, September final (last +2.2%); Durable goods orders ex transportation, September final (last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, September final (last +1.3%); Core capital goods shipments, September final (last +0.7%): We estimate factory orders increased 1.4% in September following a 1.2% gain in August. Core measures in the September durable goods report were strong, with solid growth in core capital goods orders and shipments.
  • 12:15 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated Q&A session with Women in Housing and Finance in Washington. Audience Q&A is expected.

Source: BofA. DB, Goldman

via http://ift.tt/2z2vA9o Tyler Durden

US Savings Rate Crashes To 10 Year Lows As Spending Surges Most Since ‘Cash For Clunkers’

While incomes grew at an expected 0.4% MoM, US consumers spent at an exuberant 1.0% MoM clip – the biggest monthly rise since Aug 2009 (cash for clunkers). To cover this spending surge, the savings rate tumbled.

 

The last time – Aug 09 – that spending surged like this was when the government unleashed 'cash for clunkers', it plummeted the following month…

Spending on durable goods rose 3.5 percent after adjusting for inflation after a 1.4 percent decline in August.

Outlays on services rose 0.3 percent, while spending on non- durable goods also advanced 0.3 percent.

Under the hood, the PCE Deflator printed as expected +1.6% YoY.

Private workers wage growth continues to outstrip government workers' wage growth YoY and upticked in September…

And while outgoings surged with relatively flat incomes, the savings rate plunged to its lowest since Dec 2007 to enable the spending…which just happens to be when the last recession started.

As Bloomberg warns, the jump in September outlays was driven by purchases of durable goods including the replacement of motor vehicles lost in recent flooding from hurricanes. That means the latest surge probably overstates the strength of consumer spending.

via http://ift.tt/2gUKyYy Tyler Durden

Trump To Make Fed Chair Announcement On Thursday: Politico

Far more important than any corporate earnings or central bank announcements this week, will be Trump’s widely telegraphed and trial ballooned choice who will replace Janet Yellen, and as Politico writes, that announcement is likely to come on Thursday. As Politico reports, citing sources, “look for an announcement on Thursday, though plans are not totally set yet.” The reports adds that Jerome Powell is still the most likely pick, but Trump could surprise, Politico says and adds that if Trump changes his mind, “Kevin Warsh is more likely than John Taylor.”

More details on Warsh’s unexpected rise in the ranks:

The reason for this is that senior administration officials argued (evidently successfully) to Trump that while Taylor is a rock star economist and monetary policy expert, he might not be the steady hand you’d want at the helm during a potential crisis. Powell may not be the world’s most exiting chair but he is viewed as the safest pick outside of Janet Yellen. That’s where Warsh comes in.

 

If Trump decides at the last second that he wants a splashier pick that would satisfy more conservatives, Warsh could be the guy. And he worked at the Fed during the financial crisis, so presumably could be counted on if for whatever reason we hit the skids hard again.

 

Still, as of this writing, Powell remains the very likely pick. He wouldn’t be able to take part in any announcement early in the week, given the FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday. That would push the announcement to Thursday.

Meanwhile, over the weekend, the NYT reported that Trump is unlikely to simultaneously tap a vice chairman at the same time, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Saturday, eliminating one potential twist in a selection process being closely watched on Wall Street.

Finally, as far as the market is concerned, the only surprise at this point is if Powell is not picked as next Fed chair.

via http://ift.tt/2hop57x Tyler Durden

Can The Cautious Capitalist Invest in Cryptocurrency?

 

 

The currency market is hot and many investors are attracted, but “What we’re looking at is a new technology that people are still trying to understand,” says Mathew Gertler of Digital Asset Research and compares it to the Internet in 1994. Warren Buffet has been quoted as saying. “Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” Joe Kinahan of TD Ameritrade illustrates the bitcoin transaction problem: “Say you agree to buy a car [in bitcoin] and the price on Saturday is $32,000 and because of a bitcoin move, on Monday it’s $41,000—people just can’t live their lives like that.”

 

Opening the bitcoin market to average investors is a problem of securitization. Goldman Sachs is considering bitcoin operations. J. P. Morgan is working on its own block-chain technology even though its chairman calls bitcoin a “fraud.” Shares of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) called Global X FinTech (FINX) are up 43% for the year. LedgerX LLC has received permission to trade bitcoin futures and options from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). ProShares has filed an application for an ETF dependent upon receipt by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) of approval for trading of long and short options on bitcoin. Wall Street sees the demand and wants a piece of the supply.

 

In October of 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote, “The steady addition of a constant amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expending resources to add gold to circulation. In our case, it is CPU time and electricity that is expended.” Over 16 million bitcoins have been “mined” by computers running the open-source software Mr. Nakamoto released in 2009. As gold miners are less rewarded for their effort expended as they dig deeper into the earth, so over time, will bitcoin miners be paid less for their work. The reward for each “block” added to the “blockchain” is halved every 210,000 transactions or every four years at a rate of one transaction every ten minutes. Like gold, bitcoin has the “law of diminishing returns” included in its programming. The deeper a gold miner digs, the more it costs to produce an ounce of gold.

 

Since 2009, the reward for verifying and storing newly broadcast bitcoin transactions has been reduced by half, and then halved again. The halving will continue until the miner is paid nearly zero in about one hundred years. There is a finite amount of gold, which can be removed from the planet before the product is worth less than the effort expended to produce it. Rather than ever-larger steel monsters eating the Earth’s crust, bitcoin miners use ever more powerful central processing units (CPU’s) to keep up with their competition for the next bitcoins to be “hashed.” Rewards for mining bitcoins have an endpoint similar to that of gold. By halving the reward every four years, the miner will eventually be paid next to nothing for effort expended.

 

Shekel is a term still used to refer to coined money in some cultures today. Croesus, King of Lydia in the 6th century BC, may have been the first to issue coins called shekels. Originally a weight measure for barley, it became a monetary value when it was used to measure gold. One shekel equaled about one-third of an ounce of gold. Today, one of those shekels would be worth about four hundred dollars. Coins stamped out of metal with universally recognized value expedited transactions of goods and services. Instead of having to trade a load of barley directly for food, shelter, and clothing at the time of delivery, a barley producer could take the value of his barley in tokens that could be carried in a pocket or purse. With convenient conveyance and storage also came increased risk of sudden loss to thieves, so security of savings became more important as people's collection of shekels increased.

 

The most popular shekel today is bitcoin. Bitcoin introduces the certain value of hard currency in a form that is portable, transmittable and secure. One bitcoin today represents the value of fifteen shekels or about five ounces of gold, but 10,000 bitcoins can be carried on a memory stick. For an equivalent value of shekels, one would need at least a couple of pickup trucks. Bitcoin, with the click of a mouse, can be used as a buy-in for an online poker game, to order a new television, or purchase a tropical island. Shekels, where accepted, require delivery and delivery is a problem when carrying such weight and wealth in a pocket, purse, or pickup truck. Bitcoin is secured by the ever-decreasing possibility of hacking the source code, which gets longer with a new iteration every ten minutes. For their efforts, honest mining would better reward hackers than digital theft. Shekels can wear holes in pockets, be left in purses at the blackjack table, or be outright burgled.

 

But bitcoin today is not the only cryptocurrency available as shekels were not the only coined precious metal. Coins of other realms stamped with other royal faces came to compete with the shekel accompanied by the problem of comparative valuation between currencies. How many drachmas per shekel? What is the value of 1000 obols in staters? Today the questions include: How many Litecoin per Bitcoin? What is the value of 1000 Peercoin in Ethereum? What are a million Euros worth in IOTA?

Enter Legolas. Not the Sindarin Elf of the Woodland Realm in The Hobbit, but “a demonstrably fair, premium centralized exchange using decentralized blockchain technology.” As Forex is the market in which currencies are traded, so Legolas intends to be the market for cryptocurrencies. Developed by Frederic Montagnon, co-founder of French ad tech company Teads, Legolas intends to bring security and transparency to the infant market for “cross-chain” transactions. Legolas, like bitcoin, will publish all its transactions in a public blockchain to prevent theft by hacking. In so doing, they will create a monetary digital token, called LGO, compatible on the Ethereum blockchain. One side of every transaction on the Legolas Exchange will be denominated in LGO.

As important as security is Legolas’ proposed ability to make large, immediate and anonymous transactions between bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, and fiat money. For this purpose, the Legolas business model requires inclusion of an established banking institution. Their associated bank, PayQix, is a next generation bank with accounts in both fiat and cryptocurrencies, which can process large transactions.

 

There is pent-up demand for investment vehicles that will allow conservative investors to dip a toe into the cryptocurrency market. Fundamental to opening this market to average investors are immediate, transparent and secure intra-chain (Ethereum/bitcoin), cross-chain (Litecoin/Ethereum), and fiat/crypto (Euro/bitcoin) transactions. Legolas intends to cover 100% of this market and become “the largest fair exchange in the world”, and be able to answer the question, “How many shekels for one bitcoin?”

 

 

via http://ift.tt/2hp2fwy financedude85

Frontrunning: October 30

  • Paul Manafort, Who Once Ran Trump Campaign, Told to Surrender (NYT)
  • Russia Probe Puts Focus on Washington Research Firm (WSJ)
  • Trump tax overhaul under intensifying fire as Congress readies bill (Reuters)
  • House Tax Writer Gives Ground on a State and Local Tax Break (BBG)
  • Work resumes normally in Catalonia as Spain enforces direct rule (Reuters)
  • Russia Wields Oil Diplomacy, Pushing In on U.S. Interests (NYT)
  • The Man Behind Moviepass’ 1,151% Rally Has Had 99% Wipeouts in the Past (BBG)
  • China Bond Selloff Spreads to Stocks (BBG)
  • John Boehner Unchained (Politico)
  • U.S. regulator wants to loosen leash on Wells Fargo: sources (Reuters)
  • Why Are Markets Rising? Investors Buy Every Dip (WSJ)
  • Long-time Ally of Offshore Drillers Oversees Safety Agency (WSJ)
  • Black lists matter: the betrayal of democratic liberalism (Medium)
  • The Biggest Stock Collapse in History Has No End in Sight (BBG)
  • Puerto Rico moves to cancel Whitefish power contract after uproar (Reuters)
  • Spacey Apologizes Over Past Harassment (Reuters)
  • Why Is the Government Giving Money to Dying Malls? (BBG)
  • A Missing Piece of the Global Growth Jigsaw Starts to Fall Into Place (BBG)
  • Iran fulfilling nuclear deal commitments: IAEA chief (Reuters)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– The first defendants in a criminal investigation of Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign could be taken into custody as soon as Monday, people familiar with the matter said, though the nature and target of the charges couldn’t be determined over the weekend. on.wsj.com/2yWFg3o

– Puerto Rico’s governor said Sunday he would cancel a $300 million reconstruction contract with a little-known Montana energy firm after the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it had “significant concerns” about the deal. on.wsj.com/2yWcjV4

– Strayer Education Inc is nearing a deal to merge with Capella Education Co, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that would create a for-profit education company valued at nearly $2 billion. on.wsj.com/2yVYc20

– General Electric Co executives didn’t notify the company’s board until this month about its regular flying of a spare business jet for its CEO, and it didn’t tell directors that GE had received an internal complaint about the practice several years ago, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2z3amIw

 

FT

Ahead of the autumn budget, Finance Minister Philip Hammond faces the prospect of either abandoning his fiscal targets or ignoring growing demands for more public spending, according to think-tank Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Law firm Stewarts Law is seeking to launch a legal challenge against HSBC Holdings Plc on behalf of small companies that allege they have lost money as a result of being unable to conduct business because their accounts were frozen by HSBC in attempts to crack down on anti-money laundering.

The UK government will hold back the 1 billion pounds ($1.31 billion) promised by Prime Minister Theresa May to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) ahead of imposing a budget on Northern Ireland where talks for a deal between the DUP and Sinn Fein to restore the region’s government are yet to materialise.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

Canada Jetlines Ltd will begin operations with four planes next year instead of six as originally planned and has scaled back plans to start flying out of two airports in Southern Ontario. tgam.ca/2xxRg9L

Hunter Harrison, owner of CSX Corp, says there’s no truth to market speculation that his ill health is behind the arrival of a new operating chief and the departure of three executives. tgam.ca/2xymbTH

One of Vancouver’s tech entrepreneurs, Jeff Booth, abruptly resigned from BuildDirect.com Technologies Inc, the e-commerce company he co-founded 18 years ago and hoped would become the Amazon of heavy-duty home-improvement supplies. tgam.ca/2xyNP2C

 

Britain

The Times

British Treasury ministers were left in the dark about plans to alter UK listings rules in an effort to attract the potential 1 trillion-pounds-plus listing of Saudi Aramco to London amid intense competition to win the float, according to emails disclosed to the Times. bit.ly/2z30K0z

Pay for British-based partners at one of the world’s biggest accountancy firms, Ernst & Young, has swelled to nearly 680,000 pounds ($892,704.00) as the professional services industry enjoyed bumper revenues in spite of Brexit and political upheaval around the world. bit.ly/2z1xszb

The Guardian

The Bank of England is poised to raise interest rates this Thursday for the first time in more than a decade, raising the cost of borrowing for British households already hurt by an earnings squeeze. bit.ly/2z1k9Pr

Britain is on track for a budget deficit – the gap between government spending and tax receipts – to reach 36 billion pounds by 2021-22, more than twice the initial official forecast of 17 billion, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. bit.ly/2z3bhJ5

The Telegraph

Ontario Graphite, a Canadian graphite producer, is drawing up plans to capitalise on the electric car boom and raise 40 million pounds by listing in London later this week. bit.ly/2yVWkGN

The government’s triennial review of the UK’s betting industry is expected to act over fixed-odds betting terminals, known as the “crack cocaine” of gambling because they allow punters to stake as much as 100 pounds in a single 20-second flutter. bit.ly/2z310g3

Sky News

The former owner of Monarch Airlines has pledged to use part of any profit it makes from the collapsed airline to compensate taxpayers saddled with a 60-million-pound bill for flying holidaymakers back to UK. bit.ly/2z1koKl

The Independent

A rising number of British restaurants are at risk of going bust due to Brexit, according to new research from accountancy firm Moore Stephens that says 20 percent of restaurants, or 14,800 outlets, are threatened with closure

via http://ift.tt/2ieZvBm Tyler Durden

Paul Manafort Told To Surrender To FBI

Surprise, surprise. The New York Times is reporting that the first indictment in Special Counsel Robert Mueller's probe into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia has been unsealed. And the target is none other than Paul Manafort, who briefly served as chief executive of the Trump campaign last summer before reports about his work for Ukraine's former leader Viktor Yanukovich forced him out. Manafor has reportedly been asked to surrender by the FBI, sparing him an embarassing perp walk.

Manafort and his former deputy Rick Gates have both been asked to surrender. The charges against the pair weren't immediately clear. But they do represent an escalation in the probe that has loomed over President Trump's first year in office.

Gates is a longtime protege and junior partner at Manafort's firm. His involvment in the probe was revealed in the spring. His name appeared in documents linked to a Cypriot firm Manafort set up to receive payments from Eastern European politicians like Yanukovich, who purportedly paid Manafort with money looted from the Ukraine state.

Manafort had been udner ivnestigaiton for violations of federal tax law, money laundering and whether he failed to properly disclose his foreign lobbying.

As we've noted, since these charges mostly stem from Manafort's work before he became involved with the campaign, they leave ample room for Trump to declare victory. Now, we watch for the administration's response.

via http://ift.tt/2igHlPx Tyler Durden

It’s Time to Privatize the V.A.: New at Reason

National Building Museum exterior frieze. There’s a building in Washington, D.C., that’s mostly empty space. The Pension Building, as it was known when it was commissioned by Congress in 1881, fills an entire city block. Like an M.C. Escher fever dream, columns of every size rise in stacked colonnades around a stupendously massive atrium.

By the time the last of the 15 million red bricks had been stacked six years later, there were enough offices ringing the edges of the building to house 1,500 clerks serving 324,968 pensioners, mostly Civil War veterans. The building was grand by design, a memorial to the fallen as well as a place of honor for surviving Union soldiers, their widows, and their orphans. Service pensions were a big deal in Washington in the 1880s; they made up almost one-third of the federal budget. Forty percent of the legislation introduced in the House in the 49th Congress and 55 percent in the Senate consisted of special pension acts.

These days, meeting obligations to veterans is less of a priority. Sure, there’s still grandstanding about how “only the best is good enough for our troops.” But in 2014, news leaked out that the Veterans Health Administration (VHA)—which currently consumes 38 percent of the Department of Veterans Affairs’ $182 billion budget, and which was previously celebrated by Democrats as an exemplary experiment in single-payer health care—was falsifying patient records in an effort to cover up long and occasionally fatal wait times for appointments.

President Barack Obama’s administration responded to the crisis quickly—and ineffectively. In October of last year, then–Veterans Affairs (V.A.) Secretary Bob McDonald could be found bragging that two-thirds of the system’s medical centers had new directors. But in fact, those fixes were little more than an enormous game of musical chairs, writes Katherine Mangu-Ward.

View this article.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2gUA1fY
via IFTTT

White House Braces For First Arrest In Mueller Probe

After more than 14 months, it’s possible the first arrests in the FBI’s long-running probe into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia – launched in July 2016 by then-FBI Director James Comey before being handed off to Special Counsel Robert Mueller in May – could happen as soon as this morning.

Multiple reports over the weekend – beginning Friday evening with CNN – said at least one person’s been charged and could be arrested as early as Monday morning. It wasn’t clear who the first target will be, what the charges are, and what happens next in the Mueller investigation, and some have speculated that a series of tweets from President Trump insisting that the FBI ramp up its investigation into Hillary Clinton could be a sign that the White House has reached the end of its patience with Mueller, and that the special counsel might soon be fired, an act that CNN claims would trigger “a constitutional crisis”.

On Sunday, Trump lashed out at the latest CNN leak, slamming the "collusion" narrative which he has dubbed as a witch hunt, and demanding that "something" be done to investigate Clinton's own alleged opposition research which was aided by Russia.

On Monday morning, Trump continued the attack, tweeting "Report out that Obama Campaign paid $972,000 to Fusion GPS. The firm also got $12,400,000 (really?) from DNC. Nobody knows who OK'd!"

The White House has been further upset with Mueller over the a steady stream of leaks since the probe's early days, seemingly emerging from inside Mueller’s shop, that have damaged Trump's credibility by appearing to cast an aura of suspicion over Trump without bringing charges or presenting any real evidence. As has been widely disseminated, the special counsel has taken up several strands of inquiry, including into the business affairs of Trump's former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, claims that members of the President's campaign team, like former national security adviser Michael Flynn, failed to adequately report payments from Russian entities and whether the President's dismissal of FBI Director James Comey amounted to obstruction of justice.

Among the specific leads he’s reportedly explored are links between Trump aides and foreign governments, as well as potential money laundering, tax evasion and other financial crimes, according to sources familiar with the probe. He also is exploring whether Trump or his aides have tried to obstruct the investigation, Bloomberg noted.

Trump and his team deny any wrongdoing, and so far there is no conclusive evidence from Mueller's closely held investigation or several congressional probes of nefarious links with the Russians.

Ty Cobb, the President's outside counsel sought to make clear that Trump's Twitter eruption Sunday was not an attempt to antagonize Mueller.

"Contrary to what many have suggested, the President's comments today are unrelated to the activities of the special counsel, with whom he continues to cooperate," Cobb told CNN's Jeff Zeleny.

As CNN points out, if the first charges involve activities that didn’t involve the president, such as an indictment for former campaign executive Paul Manafort on charges related to his lobbying business, Trump could use the moment to declare victory, once again branding the investigation as nothing short of the “witch hunt” Trump has repeatedly claimed it would be.

In an appearance on Fox News Sunday, Congressman Trey Gowdy of South Carolina said it would be “important whether or not this indictment involves 15-year-old business transactions or 15-day-old conversations with Russia.”

“It’s really important what the charge is. It’s really important who the person being charged is,” Gowdy, a former federal prosecutor who chairs the House Oversight Committee, said.

Given Trump’s willingness to break precedent in the pardoning of political allies, like he did when he pardoned sheriff Joe Arpaio before the sheriff’s sentencing, there’s also been speculation that Trump could quickly move to pardon the Mueller probe’s targets.

According to various media reports, an indictment or indictments were handed down by Mueller’s grand jury on Friday, but a federal judge immediately ordered it sealed. The indictment or indictments could be unsealed as soon as today. US intelligence agencies concluded in January that Russia interfered in the election to try to help Trump defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton by hacking and releasing embarrassing emails and disseminating propaganda via social media to discredit her, however, several Congressional probes have sought to reexamine these claims.

Trump’s critics have pointed out that the White House and its allies in Congress have revived their push to investigate Hillary Clinton and the Democrats for their involvement with the Obama-era Uranium One deal, as well as for financing the infamous “Trump dossier”, which purportedly played an important role in Comey’s decision to launch what became the Mueller probe, despite knowing that some of the information contained therein had either been debunked, or couldn’t be verified.

While some have suggested that this could be an attempt at deflection, there’s also evidence to suggest that the Clintons had compromising relationships with the Russians. And while no special prosecutor has been appointed in that probe, lawmakers continue to push for one, because their independent probes don’t have the power to bring charges, Reuters. Still, the unsealing of the indictments could mark one of the most important days of Trump's presidency, Politico pointed out, while also threatening to dominate a news cycle and distract from Republican efforts on tax reform, as well as the president's first trip to Asia.

To be sure, markets have mostly ignored news about the various investigations (with the exception of major developments like Trump's firing of James Comey), and according to one analyst, investors probably won't start caring now.

Commenting on today's upcoming revelations, KBW analyst Brian Gardner writes that Mueller’s indicting former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort or former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn over activities separate from Trump campaign/administration would be "mostly political noise,"

However, there's one important caveat to that view, Gardner wrote: The closer any indictments get to Trump, or potential knowledge Trump had about representatives of his campaign coordinating political activities with representatives of foreign governments, the more likely it is that indictments will hurt markets, and adds that "any unsealing of indictments may dominate week’s entire news cycle, drown out coverage of tax legislation, monetary policy."

via http://ift.tt/2zQJ4lK Tyler Durden

Wozniak and Thiel Fuel Bitcoin-Gold Debate: Gold Comes Out On Top

Wozniak and Thiel Fuel Bitcoin-Gold Debate: Gold Comes Out On Top

– Gold versus bitcoin debate makes further headlines as tech experts weigh in
– Peter Thiel tells Saudi conference he believes bitcoin is underestimated and compares to gold
– Steve Wozniak tells Money 20/20 that bitcoin is a better standard of value than gold and U.S. dollar
-Both men recognise that the US dollar has little value and there are worthy competitors to its crown as reserve currency
– Gold continues to hold its value and has multiple uses, bitcoin remains volatile and difficult to use
– Experts are pushing an unnecessary debate as gold and bitcoin state more about fiat than each other

Lords of the tech world Peter Thiel and Steve Wozniak are the latest to add fuel to the bitcoin versus gold debate.

At separate conferences both told audiences that they had great hopes for bitcoin, comparing it to gold. The co-founder of Paypal and the Apple co-founder both expressed views that suggest they believe the world’s biggest cryptocurrency is superior to the world’s oldest form of money.

Each of their comments demonstrated some ignorance when it came to how gold operates and also in how they believe the two assets need to be considered competitors.

Their comments were really about the badly managed US dollar and how its time is limited. Yet as we have seen throughout the year, thoughts by experts return to bitcoin replacing gold rather than being a statement on the pushback against fiat money tyranny.

Misinformed with misdirection 

At first Thiel’s comments were relatively positive towards gold and he showed that he understood why investors choose to invest in both assets:

[Bitcoin is] like a reserve form of money, it’s like gold and it’s just a store of value. If Bitcoin ends up being the cyber equivalent of gold, it has a great potential left.

But Thiel also believes it has more potential than gold due to a misinformed belief about mining differences:

So bitcoin is also, it’s mineable, like gold it’s hard to mine, it’s actually harder to mine than gold and so in that sense it’s more constrained,”

Wozniak also had some interesting comments on how bitcoin and gold mining compared to one another:

 “There is a certain finite amount of bitcoin that can ever exist. Gold gets mined and mined and mined. Maybe there’s a finite amount of gold in the world, but Bitcoin is even more mathematical and regulated and nobody can change mathematics.”
 

Wozniak then described the US dollar as “kind of phony,” while describing Bitcoin as more “genuine and real.”

All about the dollar

To cut to the chase what Wozniak and Thiel are really saying is not that bitcoin and gold are competing with one another but instead that they are better than the US dollar.

This should be the main takeaway – the US dollar does have major problems. It has lost over 90% of its value, is controlled by one central bank and holds a huge amount of power over the rest of the world.

Things are so bad with the US dollar that the likes of Russia and China no longer want to hold it in reserve and are rapidly increasing their exposure to physical gold bullion.

This is where the crux of any debate should be, why is bitcoin so successful and can it follow in gold’s footsteps when it comes to holding its value and outperforming fiat currencies. The two assets are so dramatically different that there should be little airtime given to an either/or debate.

Instead finance and tech commentators should recognise that if managed successfully bitcoin could join gold in its role as an alternative and powerful currency that operates outside of centralised markets and the clutches of central banks.

Bitcoin versus gold is an unnecessary debate that distracts from the main issue: both history and new technology are now offering investors and savers great opportunities to save and spend outside of the fiat system.

Forced to choose for no reason

What is fascinating about comments made by the likes of Thiel and Wozniak is that they force investors to believe an unnecessary choice is necessary.

Why do investors have to choose between gold and bitcoin? It’s like saying you must choose between gold and silver or Apple and Amazon stock, there’s no need. You can invest in both.

Thiel and Wozniak’s comments do not add anything interesting to the discussion about the opportunities and risks of investing in bitcoin. Instead they merely add fuel to the headlines that ask if cryptos are ‘killing gold’ or if bitcoin is gold 2.0.

This line of thinking has been particularly popular this year as bitcoin has surged over $6000 whilst gold has climbed by 10%. There is no doubt that bitcoin has energised investors, especially those in the tech space and younger generations.

But because one asset is outperforming the other, does this make them substitute assets or should we consider them complementary?

Gold and bitcoin: Substitutes or complementary?

– Both are clearly seen as safe havens: Take gold’s reaction when events such as North Korean sabre-rattling happen, or bitcoin’s reaction to the Catalonia crisis.

– Both are decentralised: Neither asset relies on a central bank to manage supply, demand or price.

– Both have limited supply: Gold and bitcoin are mined. Gold relies on physical mining, bitcoin is mined mathematically.

The above three reasons show there are clear similarities between the two assets. They are also the main reasons why people choose to invest in gold and/or bitcoin. But differences do remain, making bitcoin and gold ideal complementary assets whilst showing the precious metal to be the ultimate safe haven against fiat tyranny.

– Gold is held by central banks, bitcoin is not. Currently the majority of central banks hold gold as part of their reserves.

The most recent example is Russia who added 1.1 million ounces to reserves last month in an ongoing diversification from USD. So far there is no evidence of central bank investment into bitcoin, suggesting that they do not have an interest in supporting its role in the economy.

– Gold is a highly liquid market. According to the LBMA some £13.8 billion worth of physical gold are traded just in London alone.

Despite the huge influx of investment into both the bitcoin and blockchain arena there is still some way for the cryptocurrency market to go before it reaches the level of liquidity we see in the precious metals’ space.

– Bitcoin does have enormous potential as a medium of exchange. Currently it is mainly bought by traders looking to bet on price movements. Very little of the daily support behind the price is thanks to it being used in transactions.

The beauty of gold is that it has multiple uses. No longer is it used in minor hand-to-hand transactions to the extent we would have seen last century but it used in international trade agreements as well as in other areas such as medicine, technology and jewellery.

– This leads on to the final and very, very important point: gold does not rely on electricity in order to be traded. It is a physical asset, unlike bitcoin. In Puerto Rico 95% of citizens are without electricity. If the entire monetary system were based on an electronic form of cash, such as bitcoin, this would cause multiple problems for those in disaster struck areas, or even places where electricity just isn’t as reliable. Gold bars or coins do not rely on electricity in order to be used in exchange for cash or goods.

Conclusion

Much of this debate fails to look at gold’s USP that has allowed it to survive as an asset and form of money for millennia: its ability to hold its value.

Bitcoin may well retain its value, but for something that has climbed 6,000% in less than a decade, without much evidence of its key selling points the jury should perhaps step outside for a bit longer.

This does not mean that bitcoin does not have potential. There are clearly some returns to be made. If the likes of tech billionaires such as Thiel, Wozniak and Musk are getting involved then there could be some interesting developments on the horizon.

However, discovery of an asset that is posting incredible returns does not mean sensible investing needs to go out the window. Consider the approach of Frank Holmes, CEO of San Antonio-based US Global Investors, which has $2.6 billion in assets under management and is one of the definitive top precious metals funds.

Holmes has recently backed and become chairman for HIVE, a gold-miner-turned-bitcoin-miner. Holmes is still a big investor in gold but sees the complementary potential for bitcoin. As anyone should approach investing, Holmes is diversifying his portfolio.

This brings us back to our main point, the debate is not about bitcoin versus gold but instead about investors and savers protecting themselves from the rapid devaluation of fiat currencies.

Bitcoin is new and volatile, with much to prove. Gold has been in existence as money and a store of value for millennia, not to mention all of it’s other roles.

Investors should continue to pay attention to the bitcoin chatter due to the narrative it offers around changing attitudes to money and the economy. However, they must remember that the debate is about security of savings and value. This is where gold is currently the only real contender for protecting your diversified portfolio.

News and Commentary

Gold edges down on caution over next Fed chair (Reuters.com)

Asian Stocks Mixed as Chinese Shares, Bonds Tumble (Bloomberg.com)

London Metal Exchange lays out timeline for reform (Reuters.com)

Three money managers who lived through the 1987 stock-market crash warn of danger today (MarketWatch.com)

Kuroda looks favored to get second term as Bank of Japan chief (Reuters.com)

Source: US Funds

The World Is Running out of Gold Mines (ValueWalk.com)

The Bitcoin Boom: Asset, Currency, Commodity Or Collectible? (BloombergQuint.com)

Opinion: How you’ll know when it’s time to buy gold (MarketWatch.com)

EU’s united front on Catalonia disguises a weak link or two (FT.com)

What Could Pop The Everything Bubble? (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

27 Oct: USD 1,267.80, GBP 968.35 & EUR 1,090.18 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 1,278.00, GBP 968.34 & EUR 1,082.34 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 1,273.00, GBP 964.81 & EUR 1,081.67 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 1,278.30, GBP 970.36 & EUR 1,087.32 per ounce
23 Oct: USD 1,275.25, GBP 967.79 & EUR 1,085.62 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 1,280.25, GBP 974.27 & EUR 1,084.76 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 1,280.25, GBP 974.27 & EUR 1,084.76 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

27 Oct: USD 16.72, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 16.97, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.37 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 16.89, GBP 12.75 & EUR 14.34 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 17.04, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.49 per ounce
23 Oct: USD 17.00, GBP 12.90 & EUR 14.47 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 17.08, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.46 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 17.08, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.46 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Russia Buys 34 Tonnes Of Gold In September
– Gold Will Be Safe Haven Again In Looming EU Crisis
– Gold Is Valuable Due to “Extreme Rarity” – Must See CNN Video
– Gold Is Better Store of Value Than Bitcoin – Goldman Sachs
– Next Wall Street Crash Looms? Lessons On Anniversary Of 1987 Crash
– Key Charts: Gold is Cheap and US Recession May Be Closer Than Think
– Gold Up 74% Since Last Market Peak 10 Years Ago
– How Gold Bullion Protects From Conflict And War
– Silver Bullion Prices Set to Soar
– Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures
– Puerto Rico Without Electricity, Wifi, ATMs Shows Importance of Cash, Gold and Silver
– U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales and VIX Point To Increased Market Volatility and Higher Gold
– Global Outlook – Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD World: News in Charts

Important Guides

For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017:

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore

Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)

Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.

via http://ift.tt/2gLCDcq GoldCore

Another Hollywood Bombshell: Kevin Spacey Appears To Confess Sexual Assault Of A Child

As many predicted, it appears the Harvey Weinstein scandal which exposed rampant sexual abuse in Hollywood by powerful movers and shakers and a corresponding cover-up "culture of silence" was just the tip of the iceberg. Overnight, Kevin Spacey issued what was clearly an already prepared and carefully crafted statement in response to bombshell allegations published by Buzzfeed a mere hours prior late Sunday night wherein actor Anthony Rapp alleged he was sexually assaulted by Spacey when Rapp was only 14-years old. And far from denying the allegations it appears that Spacey has more or less confirmed the assault on the then child actor who emerged as a Broadway star in the musical "Rent", and who currently plays Lt. Stamets on "Star Trek: Discovery".

Spacey posted his statement to Twitter, which actually reads as confirmation of the shocking allegations while attempting to obfuscate, saying, "I'm beyond horrified to hear his story. I honestly do not remember the encounter, it would have been over 30 years ago. But if I did behave then as he describes, I owe him the sincerest apology for what would have been deeply inappropriate drunken behavior, and I am sorry for the feelings he describes having carried with him all these years."

Image source: WireImage/FilmMagic

The sequence of events which caused Rapp to come forward after all these years – a recent near encounter with the man he "dreaded" – are described by Buzzfeed, based on Rapp's personal testimony, as follows:

Last June, Anthony Rapp settled in at the home of his good friend and fellow actor Camryn Manheim to watch the Tony Awards. The New York natives were both in Toronto working, and Manheim had invited Rapp and his boyfriend over to partake in the beloved theater geek ritual. But for the first time, Rapp — a working actor since he was 9 years old, and most famously part of the original cast of the musical Rent — felt something he'd never experienced before with the Tonys: dread.

And that's because the host that night was Kevin Spacey.

Buzzfeed continues the description:

In an interview with BuzzFeed News, Rapp is publicly alleging for the first time that in 1986, Spacey befriended Rapp while they both performed on Broadway shows, invited Rapp over to his apartment for a party, and, at the end of the night, picked Rapp up, placed him on his bed, and climbed on top of him, making a sexual advance. According to public records, Spacey was 26. Rapp was 14.

Rapp posted a response to Spacey's overnight statement a mere minutes later, saying, "I came forward with my story, standing on the shoulders of the many courageous women and men who have been speaking out" – which is an apparent reference to the women coming forward in the midst of the Harvey Weinstein revelations, which Rapp acknowledged when speaking to Buzzfeed.

The child actor, who began his career at the age of six and landed his first professional job at nine years old, told Buzzfeed that the experience haunted him all these years as Spacey's fame grew and as he became a more of a ubiquitous presence across the film industry:

Rapp's frustration, anger, and incredulity with the sexual boundary he said Spacey crossed with him grew as well. Seeing Spacey now, “My stomach churns,” Rapp said. “I still to this day can't wrap my head around so many aspects of it. It's just deeply confusing to me.”

Rapp's detailed recounting of the assault begins by being surprised that he was invited to Spacey's Manhattan apartment for a party even though he was so young:

When he arrived at Spacey's apartment, Rapp quickly realized that he was the only nonadult there — which, again, did not worry him, since he so often had found himself in similar situations as a child actor. The bigger issue: "I didn't know anyone," he said. "And I was quickly kind of bored."

 

Rapp said he ended up wandering into the bedroom, sitting on the edge of the bed, and watching TV well past midnight.

And Rapp's account of the moment the alleged assault happened includes reference to Spacey picking him up as a 14-year old boy "like a groom picks up the bride over the threshold" and then laying down on top of him:

“My memory was that I thought, Oh, everybody's gone. Well, yeah, I should probably go home,” Rapp said. Spacey, he recalled, “sort of stood in the doorway, kind of swaying. My impression when he came in the room was that he was drunk.” Rapp doesn't remember Spacey saying anything to him. Instead, Rapp said, “He picked me up like a groom picks up the bride over the threshold. But I don't, like, squirm away initially, because I'm like, 'What's going on?' And then he lays down on top of me.”

 

“He was trying to seduce me,” Rapp said. “I don't know if I would have used that language. But I was aware that he was trying to get with me sexually.”

 

Rapp recalled this all happening — Spacey appearing at the door, coming into the room, picking him up, and putting him on the bed — in one clumsy action, with Spacey landing at a slight angle on top of him. He said Spacey “was, like, pressing into me,” and that he remembers Spacey “tightening his arms.” But while he can't recall exactly how long Spacey remained on top of him, Rapp said he was able to “squirm” away after a short period.

Buzzfeed: Spacey then invited both boys to join him at the popular nightclub Limelight, even though, as Rapp explained, “I looked younger than 14.” Above: Anthony Rapp, circled, in the Playbill program for Precious Sons, during the time period when the encounter with Spacey took place. Image source: Playbill via Buzzfeed

Photo from Anthony Rapp's book "Without You" – with the caption: "Anne, Mom, Adam and me circa 1983" (Rapp is bottom right – his encounter with Kevin Spacey will occur three years later when he becomes a child actor on Broadway). Image source: SF Gate

The night ended when Rapp pushed Spacey away, went into the bathroom, and then headed for the apartment door:

“It was a frozen moment,” Rapp said of the entire encounter, with a deep, exasperated sigh. “In terms of fight or flight or freeze, I tend to freeze.”

 

After pushing Spacey off him, Rapp remembered he was able to step into the bathroom and close the door…

 

…Then I opened the door, and I was like, 'OK, I'm going to go home now.' He followed me to the front door of the apartment, and as I opened the door to leave, he was leaning on the front door [frame]. And he was like, 'Are you sure you wanna go?' I said, 'Yes, good night,' and then I did leave."

As Buzzfeed's fact-checkers confirm, what gives Rapp's detailed account added veracity is that he attempted to convey the same exact allegations during a 2001 interview with the Advocate magazine – this, in addition to quietly telling multiple other people over a period of a couple decades. Buzzfeed explains further:

Between that encounter and Spacey winning the Oscar for Best Actor the following year for American Beauty, Rapp was riled up enough to speak about what Spacey did to him in a Q&A with the Advocate in 2001 — “I was bored, so I was in his bedroom watching TV and didn’t know everybody had left, and he came to the bedroom and he picked me up and lay down on top of me” — with Spacey’s name redacted from the story. (Bruce Steele, then the executive editor of the Advocate, confirmed to BuzzFeed News that Rapp was talking about Spacey.)

All of this sheds further light on a somewhat cryptic October 13 tweet by former television news anchor Heather Unruh, who tweeted the following while not explaining further:  “The Weinstein Scandal has emboldened me … I was a Kevin Spacey fan until he assaulted a loved one. Time the dominoes fell.”

Though Heather Unruh has kept silent since her allegation was posted to Twitter, her and Rapp's speaking out could mark the beginning of more stories of abuse at the hands of Oscar winner and American Beauty star Kevin Spacey to come, which is precisely the "opening the floodgates" scenario that continues to unfold in the case of Harney Weinstein. 

Meanwhile, when it comes to legal terms and the question of whether a formal investigation against Kevin Spacey can take place, though some states like Florida don't have a statute of limitations on child sexual assault crimes, New York's is one of the least favorable toward victims in the country: victims have until the age of 23 to either bring criminal charges or file civil lawsuit against the alleged perpetrators, and Anthony Rapp is now 46-years old. 

But in terms of Spacey's defense of his career and reputation in the media spotlight, it appears that his statement – again which appears to be more of an ambiguous and roundabout confirmation rather than flat denial – was tailored to play up the "I choose to live as a gay man" aspect in the hopes that this element would dominate the headlines.

ABC initially published under the above headline.

Indeed, some outlets in their overnight reporting are already falling right in line – People Magazine, for example makes it all sound quite innocuous that Spacey attempted to allegedly have sex with a child – with its headline that reads, Kevin Spacey Comes Out as Gay After Anthony Rapp Alleges the Actor Made Sexual Advances Toward Him at 14. And CNN's headline hides the fact that the reported "misconduct" involves a child of 14: Kevin Spacey apologizes after accusation of sexual misconduct. The New York Times makes sure to emphasize the assault is "decades-old" in its headline, Kevin Spacey Apologizes After Allegation of Decades-Old Sexual Advance on a Minor, while also emphasizes the operative word "apologizes". 

To Anthony Rapp and potentially other victims out there, the news should hardly be cast in terms of Spacey's "coming out" – but shamefully this is how the mainstream media is already choosing to frame it.

via http://ift.tt/2hmt0l5 Tyler Durden