Syrian Pro-Government Forces Evacuate Airports, Military Bases Ahead Of Airstrikes

In light of this morning’s jawboning by Trump, who vowed that an attack with US missiles “nice and new and “smart!” is imminent, and following overnight unconfirmed reports that US warplanes are massing over the Syria-Iraq border, it will hardly come as a surprise that Syrian soldiers and pro-government forces are getting the hell out of dodge.

According to Reuters, which cites the (highly conflicted) Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Syrian pro-government forces are evacuating main airports and military air bases ahead of possible U.S. strikes.

While the report has yet to be confirmed, amusingly Reuters clarified that “the Syrian army could not be immediately reached for comment.” It’s also not immediately clear what they would say: “yes, we are retreating, have a good day.”

Ironically, the Syrian army has one person to thank for the advance notice of an imminent attack: the same one who back in 2013 said: ” I would not go into Syria, but if I did it would be by surprise and not blurted all over the media like fools.”

One lingering question is whether Russian armed forces are doing the same, and if not, what the odds are that a US strike could result in a lethal outcome involving US troops, unleashing an armed conflict between the two superpowers.

Separately, earlier on Wednesday, the Iranian media publishes the first images of the damage to the T4 Syrian airbase after an Israeli airstrike 48 hours ago killed 14.

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Israel Vows To “Wipe Assad Off The Map” If Iran Launches An Attack From Syrian Territory

After they launched a lethal strike (from Lebanese airspace, no less) against the T-4 airforce base in Syria in retaliation for the a chemical weapons attack on a rebel-held Syrian village – killing several Iranians in the process – senior Israeli officials have finally confirmed what many have long assumed since the country started escalating its military operations within the borders of its crumbling Levantine neighbor.

Israel

That is, if Israel even so much as suspects that Iranian agents are planning an attack against Israel from Syrian territory, it will be Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who ends up on the receiving end of a preemptive strike from the IDF, per the Jerusalem Post.

“If the Iranians act against Israel from Syrian territory, Syrian President Bashar Assad and his regime will be those that pay the price.”

The aggressive rhetoric from senior officials in the IDF comes after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei referred to Israel’s attack on the T-4 air base as “Israel’s crime” and threatened that it “would not remain without a response.”

However, IDF officials are literally threatening to “wipe Assad off the map.”

“Assad’s regime and Assad himself will disappear from the map and the world if the Iranians do try to harm Israel or its interests from Syrian territory,” said senior officials in the defense establishment.

“Our recommendation to Iran is that it does not try to act, because Israel is determined to continue on this issue to the very end,” the officials said.

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said Tuesday that Israel would take “all necessary steps” to stop Iran from establishing a permanent military base in Syria.

“No matter what the price, we will not allow Iran to have a permanent [military] foothold in Syria. We have no other choice,” Liberman said.

Israeli officials believe Iran might try to retaliate either with Syrian weapons or by transporting Iranian arms to Syria.

Officials also expressed their hope that Lebanese militant group Hezbollah wouldn’t be drawn into a potential conflict between Israel, Syria and Iran – though we imagine that outcome would probably be inevitable.

“We hope that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah will not join and be drawn into the campaign if it breaks out,” senior security officials told The Jerusalem Post’s sister newspaper Maariv on Tuesday.

“We have no interest in widening the front but, should it happen, Nasrallah needs to understand that his fate will be no different from the fate of Assad and he will pay a very heavy price.”

Israeli officials on Tuesday said they were confident US President Donald Trump would stand by his comments referring to a possible American strike in Syria, in response to another use of chemical weaponry by Assad’s forces against his own citizens.

Meanwhile, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Tuesday to launch an investigation into the alleged chemical attack in Syria after the US admitted it has “no evidence” the attack was carried out by the regime. A US strike in Syria is widely expected, and the White House is expected to announce its plans for retaliation later today after UN Ambassador Nikki Haley promised the US would resort to unilateral action if the Russians blocked their way at the security council.

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New California Bill Would Eliminate Free Speech, Require “Online Fact Checkers”

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

California Senator Richard Pan, the infamous fascist who forced a mandatory vaccination law through in order to rake in money from big pharma, has decided there should no longer be free speech for anyone other than the government.  Pan’s new bill proposes to require “online fact checkers” to verify content before anything can be posted on the internet.

Anyone who has ever said tyranny cannot come to America has been proven wrong. Pan’s new bill would basically outlaw questioning the government’s official narrative, and is reminiscent of the book burning days of Nazi Germany. The bill supposedly only targets social media in California, but as Jon Rappaport points out, once you read the bill, it applies to the whole of the internet.

This isn’t some sort of prank either.  The leftists in power are getting desperate in their attempt to control information and produce propaganda and this is just more evidence of such.  We experienced evidence of this yesterday when SHTFPlan reported that the Department of Homeland Security has been instructed to compile a database of all journalists and online “media influencers.”

But that’s all beginning now, here, in the “land of the free.” Last week, SHTFPlan interviewed Sarah Leach who was detained without charges for survivalist posts on her own Facebook page. But we are expected to believe that DHS has no nefarious reasoning for compiling a list of all journalists, bloggers, podcasters, or as they like to call them: “media influencers”?

FedBizOpps.gov posted a relatively benign-sounding subject: “Media Monitoring Services” by DHS. Of course, the government always makes basic human rights violations sound benign when we all know they are anything but. The details of the attached Statement of Work outline a plan to gather and monitor the public activities of media professionals and influencers and are enough to cause nightmares of constitutional and basic fundamental human rights proportions,particularly as the freedom of the press is under attack worldwide. Yes, that includes in the United States.

And “attack” is not hyperbolic. -SHTFPlan

Should this bill in California pass, the state will actually have major regulations on free speech and give themselves the power to prosecute “speech criminals.”  Don’t believe it? Well, the bill is short.  Here’s what it says:

SB 1424

This bill would require any person who operates a social media, as defined, Internet Web site with a physical presence in California to develop a strategic plan to verify news stories shared on its Web site. The bill would require the plan to include, among other things, a plan to mitigate the spread of false information through news stories, the utilization of fact-checkers to verify news stories, providing outreach to social media users, and placing a warning on a news story containing false information.

(a) Any person who operates a social media Internet Web site with physical presence in California shall develop a strategic plan to verify news stories shared on its Internet Web site.

(b) The strategic plan shall include, but is not limited to, all of the following:

(1) A plan to mitigate the spread of false information through news stories.

(2) The utilization of fact-checkers to verify news stories.

(3) Providing outreach to social media users regarding news stories containing false information.

(4) Placing a warning on a news story containing false information.

(c) As used in this section, “social media” means an electronic service or account, or electronic content, including, but not limited to, videos, still photographs, blogs, video blogs, podcasts, instant and text messages, email, online services or accounts, or Internet Web site profiles or locations.

In other words, no one may use their human right to free speech to question the government’s official story anymore.  Regardless of whether the “facts” given make any sense or not, people will be banned from saying so.

In case you believe there are too many websites and blogs based in California to enforce a new draconian law, let me explain how the game works. Behind closed doors, the state government would decide to focus on a few big issues. For example, gun control, vaccines, and immigration. Enforcement agencies would go after the biggest Internet operations expressing politically unacceptable points of view on those subjects. At first. A spread of smaller operations would feel the heat later.

So-called fact checkers would come from government-supported groups who agree with Official Positions. In other words, they wouldn’t be fact checkers at all. They would be prime news fakers. –Jon Rappaport

Although this and the database of journalists operated by DHS are huge human and constitutional rights violations, it’s become abundantly clear that the government does not care at all and will continue to advance tyranny and grab more power for themselves.  When is the breaking point? It used to be a 3% tax on tea.  Now, it certainly feels like there’s nothing Americans won’t give up to keep giving the government more power over their lives.

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Trump Blames Democrats’ “Fake Investigation” For “Bad Blood” With Russia, Blasts Mueller

After back-pedaling from his earlier aggressive threat tweet…

With some more diplomatic words…

President Trump has turned his attention to who is to blame for this situation… It’s Obama and the Democrats!!

Worst. Putin Puppet. Ever…

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House Speaker Paul Ryan Won’t Run For Reelection

Days after Paul Ryan reportedly laughed off rumors (allegedly sourced by Politico from interviews with 30 friends, colleagues and confidants) that he won’t be running for re-election in November, a literal deluge of reports hit Wednesday morning suggesting that an announcement from the speaker about his plans to retire instead of running again in the fall is imminent.

While Axios was first to report it, Politico and CNN quickly confirmed.

 

 

CNN said Ryan is expected to address his plans during a closed-door meeting of the GOP conference Wednesday morning.

According to Axios, Ryan told a confidant he will soon announce that he won’t run for reelection in November. By not running, Ryan would essentially be quitting while he’s ahead since Democrats are expected to make significant gains in November, possibly even retaking the majorities in both chambers of Congress. The speaker apparently has little interest in serving as minority leader – a post he has never held.

Ryan

In a separate report published shortly after Axios went to press with its story, Politico said Ryan told two colleagues on Wednesday morning that he isn’t planning to run in the fall.

One Republican insider told Axios that Ryan’s decision would benefit his colleague, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

One of Washington’s best-wired Republicans said:

“This is a Titanic, tectonic shift. … This is going to make every Republican donor believe the House can’t be held.” The announcement will help Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in his fundraising because “the Senate becomes the last bastion,” the Republican said.

Politico added that Steve Scalise – the Majority whip who was wounded during last year’s shooting at a Congressional baseball practice – would succeed Ryan as leader, bypassing Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Axios says Scalise and McCarthy are the two most likely candidates to succeed Ryan.

“Friends” of Ryan say he’s ready to leave Congress now that he’s passed tax reform – a longtime dream. He’s also tired of the endless frustration of working with President Trump. While there’s no “good” time to leave, Ryan says he might as well bow out while he’s on top – and that he’s ready to live as a private citizen.

Of course, Ryan, who was the Republicans’ Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, hasn’t ruled out another run for the country’s highest office.

Ryan’s exit would contrast mightily with that of the previous Republican speaker, John Boehner. Reports that Boehner would leave (or, more accurately, that he was being pushed out by a mutiny of conservative Republicans) dribbled out for months before the speaker made his announcement the day after Pope Francis made a papal address to Congress in 2015. Unlike Boehner – who resigned his seat before leaving Congress altogether – Ryan would remain as speaker until he leaves office at the beginning of the next Congress (that is, assuming these reports are accurate and that he really is planning to retire).

Of course, Ryan wouldn’t be alone in his decision not to run: Dozens of Republican lawmakers in competitive districts have opted not to run again rather than risk being crushed by a Democratic wave.

But there is one similarity between the circumstances surrounding Boehner and Ryan’s exits. Both stood up for a version of Republicanism that, ultimately, lost out.

 

 

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Here’s What Zuckerberg Was Really Thinking During Yesterday’s Hearing

It looks like Mark Zuckerberg just got an embarrassing taste of his own medicine.

The Facebook CEO must’ve been shaken up after being grilled by Sen. Richard Blumenthal and Sen. Ted Cruz yesterday just before taking the first of several breaks during yesterday’s Odyssey-like Senate hearing, because he left a copy of his hearing notes on the table in plain view of press photographers, who were quick to “document” them.

Notes

While photographers only managed to photograph the top pages of Zuckerberg’s lengthy memo, they provided insight into how Zuckerberg would’ve handled questions about whether Facebook should be broken up – which he was never asked, though Sen. Lindsey Graham came closest by asking Zuck if he felt Facebook had monopolistic power (Zuckerberg elicited chuckles by claiming “it doesn’t feel that way to me” in response).

As the notes reveal, Zuck was prepared to cite competition with China as a reason why his company should remain intact.

“Break Up FB? U.S. tech companies key asset for America; break up strengthens Chinese companies,” the document read, according to a photo published by the Associated Press.

The answer, as Bloomberg points out, contrasts with Zuckerberg’s efforts to woo Chinese officials as he seeks to regain entry to the Chinese market. Chinese officials have banned many US tech companies from operating in the world’s second largest economy.

Facebook’s planned response — to cite rising competition with China — also contrasts with Zuckerberg’s efforts to woo Chinese officials to let the company expand in the country. The social network is now barred from the market along with many of its U.S. peers, which helps domestic social media titans such as Tencent Holdings Ltd. thrive.

If pressed about Facebook’s dominance of the global advertising market, Zuckerberg was prepared to argue that Facebook represents only a tiny sliver – roughly 6% of a $650 billion market.

But according to Bloomberg Intelligence, Facebook and Google together still dominant the global ad market, with Facebook posting nearly 26% market share and Alphabet holding more than 60%.

The pages documented by reporters featured notes on 15 topics in all, from issues of data safety to diversity to election integrity to how the company handles violent or disturbing content.

The most-detailed section focused on Cambridge Analytica, the firm at the center of the controversy surrounding Facebook’s data sharing practices.

* * *

Meanwhile, Slate offered a rundown of the five other interesting topics outlined in Zuckerberg’s notes:

Business Model:

Let’s be clear: Facebook doesn’t sell your data. You own your information. We give you controls.” – It’s true that Facebook has given its users an ever-finer degree of control of their privacy settings over the years. The problem is that it’s often buried those settings or made them indecipherable – and that Facebook’s business model doesn’t really work unless a substantial number of its users can’t be bothered to think about them.

Diversity

There’s a section on diversity, and the first canned answer places Facebook’s particular workforce diversity problem within the context of a broader problem in the industry: “Silicon Valley has a problem, and Facebook is part of that problem.” The second talking point includes Facebook’s diversity numbers: “3% African American, 5% Hispanic.” These numbers cover the entire company and are much lower if you look at technical roles and leadership roles at Facebook.

Tim Cook

There are talking points about Apple CEO Tim Cook’s recent critique of Facebook’s ad-targeting business model, many of which sounded a little like fighting words—like “Lots of stories about apps misusing Apple data, never seen Apple notify people” and “Important to hold everyone to the same standard.” Ouch!

The EU’s General Data Protection Rule

The notes include a section on the EU’s General Data Protection Rule, or GDPR, which is the new comprehensive data privacy legislation going into effect across Europe next month. Facebook’s public relations team has found a way to spin Europe’s robust consumer protection requirements into a talking point against the need for similar laws in the United States. “GDPR does a few things,” the cheat sheet says. “Provides control over data use – what we’ve done for years. Requires consent—done a little bit, but now doing more in Europe and around the world,” read two of the bullet points. Those statements carry the suggestion that Facebook doesn’t need American regulations on top of European ones.

Resign?

Zuckerberg was even prepared to defend himself in case a senator suggested he throw in the towel: “Resign? Founded Facebook. My decisions. I made mistakes. Big challenge, but we’ve solved problems before, going to solve this one. Already taking action.” Dramatic.

* * *

Of course, there were many pages of notes below the two that were documented by the press – so just because a topic wasn’t included above doesn’t mean Zuck wasn’t prepared to answer. Zuck will testify before the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Wednesday. The hearing is set to begin at 10 am ET.

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US Consumer Prices Dip In March But ‘Verizon Effect’ Leaves Inflation At 13-Month Highs

Consumer prices dipped MoM 0.1% in March (the biggest drop in a year)…

But as the distortions of the “Verizon effect” fade from the numbers, annualized CPI YoY rose to 2.4% – the highest since Feb 2017.

 

As UBS notes, today’s CPI was effected by the ‘Verizon effect’, which was a statistical adjustment which lowered CPI without any prices actually falling. It is one reason the Fed does not focus on CPI. However, CPI is still the favored inflation measure of financial markets.

Additionally, Shelter Inflation jumped from 3.1% to 3.3%…

How does this translate into inflation pressure at the micro level? The following heat map shows where inflation is “hottest” by corporate sector.

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Stocks Spinning Their Wheels, Loudly

Via Dana Lyons’ Tumblr,

Despite extreme daily volatility, the stock market has been mired in a historically tight range.

If it seems as though the stock market has been crazy volatile lately without really going anywhere, you’re not imagining things. Over the 2 weeks (i.e., 10 days) through last Friday (4/6), the S&P 500 (SPX) averaged a daily trading range of 2.3%. That’s in the 94th percentile for volatility since the inception of the SPX in 1950. The more remarkable thing, though, is the fact that the total range in the SPX over those 2 weeks is just 4.6%. Since 1950, there have been just 13 other times (or 0.07% of all days) that saw as much daily volatility confined in such a relatively tight 2-week range.

Furthermore, over those 10 days, the S&P 500 experienced 8 daily price changes of at least 1%, with 4 of them exceeding 2%. If that seems like a lot, you’re right again. Since 1950, just 1% of all 2-week periods contained as many as 8 1% moves. None of them occurred within a 2-week range of less than 5%, as this one did. And, as this chart shows, just 14 times did the SPX experience 7 daily moves of at least 1% within a 2-week range of less than 5%.

So what will the outcome of this volatile, “running in place” market be? One conventional thought is that, once the lid, or bottom, to this range is opened, the pent-up volatility will be unleashed in an out-sized move in the direction of the breakout. We don’t necessarily disagree with that notion – though, if recent history is any guide, the out-sized move may also be part of an initial “false” move as well.

Which way will the market break? Another, perhaps, conventional take is that the present range is in the form of a “bear-flag”, or a tight consolidation pattern that will eventually lead to a breakdown and a fresh move to the downside. We can’t take much exception to that interpretation – other than the fact that it has been an unreliable one in recent years when applied to the popular major indices. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see that scenario play out…but it wouldn’t surprise us to see it fail either.

One gloomy observation from a cursory glance at the prior examples on the chart above is that most of them occurred during bad markets, or in the transition to a bad market. That’s perhaps not surprising since elevated volatility tends to occur during corrections and bear markets, etc. But is it just a fluke in this case? Are there enough samples for a rigorous conclusion?

*  *  *

In a Premium Post at The Lyons Share, we take a deeper dive into these “elevated but constrained volatility” periods, both past and present. The result is an evidence-based expectation for the outcome in the near-term – as well as a reasonable assessment about how much we should worry about the troubling long-term track record after prior examples.

If you’re interested in the “all-access” version of our charts and research, please check out our new site, The Lyons Share. You can follow our investment process and posture every day — including insights into what we’re looking to buy and sell and when. Thanks for reading!

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Futures Rebound After Trump Reverses, Tweets: “Russia Needs Us To Help With Their Economy”

With futures dumping, and treasurys and oil surging following Trump’s tweeted threat to Russia that missiles at Syria “will be coming”, which was seemingly dreafted by John Bolton…

 

… just minutes later Trump eased off the brink of World War III, after John Kelly appeared to wrest control of Trump’s twitter account – however briefly – and tweeted that “our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work together. Stop the arms race?”

While amusing, the flip-flop in Trump’s sentiment had a pronounced market impact and the moment Trump’s follow up tweet hit is obvious on the chart below as it marked the bottom of today’s selloff, at least so far.

Of course, if and when the US does launch a missile strike and Russia follows through on its promise to shoot down US missiles, expect much more downside.

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Turkey Roasted As Erdogan Anxiety Sends Lira, Bonds To Record-er Lows

Two days ago we noted the rapid acceleration of the demise of Turkey’s currency and bond markets, as Erdogan promised “to rescue investors from high rates” prompting (hyper)inflation concerns and central bank independence anxiety among investors.

Since then it has got worse, much worse…

The Turkish lira extended a slide to fresh record lows as wagers mount the central bank may hesitate to defend the currency with higher interest rates.

Bloomberg reports that Piotr Matys, a strategist at Rabobank, notes that while the monetary authority can stop, or at least slow down the pace of the lira’s depreciation,

“it is also a well-known notion among market participants that Governor Cetinkaya may have limited room to raise rates in the current domestic environment.”

“Only a few weeks ago my 4.20 target for USD/TRY I’ve had for a few months looked ambitious. I was also a bit worried that I could be too bullish on EUR/TRY expecting 5.12,” he said.

“We are not that far from those targets, which shows how quickly things can deteriorate.”

Why should the average joe American investor worry about what’s going on in Turkey?

As Fasanara Capital’s Francisco Filia explains, the catalyst for a deep repricing in markets can be entirely endogenous, within the space of its dangerous and fragile market structure.

Alternatively, the list of exogenous catalysts is famously getting longer by the way: trade wars / capital wars between the US and China, political and geopolitical uncertainty, policy normalization (QT), inflation reborn, debt and deficits, etc

In the last few days we added an important and overlooked exogenous factor to the list: Turkey.

The Turkish lira is losing ground at pace, down over 11% this year, 42% in 2 years, 127% in 5 years. The move is mirrored by the Russian Ruble, which is nearing the weakest levels reached during the oil slump, when brent crude traded as low as 27$/bbl (it is 70$ now). US sanctions on Russian oligarchs and recent tensions in Syria are behind the recent 10% move. For Turkey, the narrative blames it on political uncertainty under Erdogan (challenge to constitutional rights, over 40 thousands people arrested, 800 companies confiscated in last few months, the highest unemployment in 7 years at 13%), geopolitical instability in the region, fears of trade wars escalation, etc.

Now, such large devaluations would matter to any country. But particularly to a country like Turkey, that has:

  • 53% of total external debt on GDP, for over $400bn (where Reinhart and Rogoff put the at 30%-35% the critical threshold for debt intolerance)
  • Foreign banks exposed for over $330bn, of which $170bn is in hard currency. $100bn of exposure for EU banks
  • Current account deficit of 5.5% of GDP

 It matters all the most as inflation is reborn, QE is fading and rates are on the rise. When a lot of debt denominated in hard-currency meet rising rates and a fast-weakening currency, the probability of a default rises.

 On Saturday, Hurriyet newspaper revealed that Dogus Holding, one of Turkey’s largest conglomerates, was in talks with several banks to restructure TL23.5bn ($5.81bn) in debt. Just in September last year, Turkey was still dealing with its largest debt default, Otas, on a $4.75bn loan.

Turkey defaulted (or debt restructured) 6 times in the last two centuries: 1876, 1915, 1931, 1940, 1978, 1982. Turkey was likely to be an issue to be dealt with at some point down the road: current events in FX and rates space bring such day of reckoning forward.

In recent years, Russell Napier – editor of the Solid Ground – has been vocal in highlighting the dangers with Turkey debt, even without a deterioration in the political context (which is now also at play). He saw the possibility for Turkey to introduce capital controls and/or default on obligations: contagion to other EM would ensue, as “when credit stops flowing to one emerging market it stops flowing to all of them”.

The latest acceleration in the Russian Ruble (10% off in two days) can provoke broader deleveraging on EM exposure, hitting on an already fragile context for the Turkish lira, and possibly proving to be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back. As the ruble suffers despite a strong oil price, the Turkish lira will instead feel a double hit: Turkey is a net importer of oil and therefore exposed to more damage to the economy and a worsening current account deficit in the process.

What happens next in Turkey can matter to global markets, as they scramble to find a direction. Turkey is yet another catalyst in a long list of rivals (butterfly effects link) threatening to pop bubbles in bonds and equities globally (twin bubbles).

Turkey could have knock-on effects on global assets in more ways than one. Directly, as Turkey represents close to 5% allocation for EM debt indexes and funds (more than that for buy-the-dip oriented vehicles). Indirectly, as it may concur in (i) breaking the glass ceiling of market complacency/narcosis, (ii) renewing fears on bank capital in Europe at a time of anti-EU political upheaval, (iii) pushing Turkey into more geopolitical assertiveness.  

Therefore, what may matter more than just what happens to Turkey, is what happens to risk assets globally should such a vulnerability be exposed. It would be the first one of scale in quite a while, dirtying the blue light in the sky of markets made price-insensitive to risks after 10 years of QE/NIRP helped to paper over any trouble along the way.

Equity markets in the US are 9% from all-time-highs, staring down the abyss from the edge of the cliff, as they bounced off the 200-days moving average and trend-line 5 times in just two months, neatly, like a ball bounces off a floor. However, the moving average is no floor, and a long list of vulnerabilities may remind them of that. Turkey just joined such waiting list.

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