Got (Record-High-Priced) Milk?

Hot on the heels of yesterday’s low PPI and this morning’s falling CPI, we thought it worth noting (given The Fed’s pre-occupation that inflation is running too low) that the price of milk – that staple of the American diet – just hit an all-time high. Nope, no inflation here…

 

 

As an aside, while correlation is not causation, the price of milk and the growth of the Fed Balance Sheet have an 82% correlation since March 2009.

 

Chart: Bloomberg




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The Fed's Laughable GDP "Forecast" Just Got Even Funnier

What in January 2012 was a 2014 GDP forecast range of 3.7%-4.0% collapsed to 2.1%-2.3% in June (because clearly the Fed couldn’t possibly forecast snow in the winter), and three months later is now 2.0%-2.2%. In short, a 43% forecasting error.

That is all.




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The Fed’s Laughable GDP “Forecast” Just Got Even Funnier

What in January 2012 was a 2014 GDP forecast range of 3.7%-4.0% collapsed to 2.1%-2.3% in June (because clearly the Fed couldn’t possibly forecast snow in the winter), and three months later is now 2.0%-2.2%. In short, a 43% forecasting error.

That is all.




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VIX Slammed Under 12, S&P To Record Highs As Yellen Starts To Speak

UPDATE: Stocks have roundtripped again since she started…

 

Having oscillated in a wide range immediately after the FOMC statement’s release, stocks have decided that up is the way to go and the S&P 500 just hit new all-time record intraday highs (helped by a VIXnado collapse under 12 and surge in USDJPY). Treasury yields are higher, USDdollar is higher (but fading back from its initial spike), and gold and silver and unchanged.

 

VIXnado

 

Quite a swing though – driven by Futures – immediately after the statement…

 

as AUDJPY takes over again…

As FX exploded…

 

But The USD has roundtripped…

 

Charts:Bloomberg




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VIX Slammed Under 12, S&P To Record Highs As Yellen Starts To Speak

UPDATE: Stocks have roundtripped again since she started…

 

Having oscillated in a wide range immediately after the FOMC statement’s release, stocks have decided that up is the way to go and the S&P 500 just hit new all-time record intraday highs (helped by a VIXnado collapse under 12 and surge in USDJPY). Treasury yields are higher, USDdollar is higher (but fading back from its initial spike), and gold and silver and unchanged.

 

VIXnado

 

Quite a swing though – driven by Futures – immediately after the statement…

 

as AUDJPY takes over again…

As FX exploded…

 

But The USD has roundtripped…

 

Charts:Bloomberg




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It’s Not Just the Police – The Feds are Also Militarizing Public Schools with Grenade Launchers, M16s and Tanks

Screen Shot 2014-09-17 at 12.35.53 PMEvents last month in Ferguson, Missouri (read my detailed thoughts here) forced Americans to confront the frightening reality that many of of the nation’s police departments have been quietly, but consistently, militarizing over the past couple of decades. It’s one thing to intellectually understand that this has happened, it’s quite another to see cops deploy tanks and point sniper rifles at peacefully protesting U.S. citizens.

Just as disturbing as the scenes themselves, is the fact that this has been happening for so long under the 1033 transfer program with only muted criticism. The program was originated in the late 1990′s under the National Defense Authorization Act of 1997 (recall that the NDAA is also being used to allow for the indefinite detention of American citizens without trial), and it allows for the transfer of excess Department of Defense equipment to domestic police. In other words, it has been public policy for almost two decades to militarize the police.


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Janet Yellen's "Double-Dissent, Exit Strategy" FOMC Press Conference – Live Feed

Having used the most words ever in an FOMC statement to describe the total shenanigans that they have created, Janet Yellen prepares to ‘meet the press’ to explain how ‘considerably’ well things are going and yet how much ‘considerably’ more is needed to be done… For now the meme is that this statement is more dovish than the previous one…

  • *PIMCO’S GROSS SAYS FED MORE DOVISH THAN HAWKISH NOW: CNBC

We suspect she will want to walk that back a little (before Nasdaq hits all-time record highs). And it isn’t just the Fed’s balance sheet, or total US debt, hitting daily highs, so is the number of words in the Fed’s statement:

Live Feed:



Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream




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Janet Yellen’s “Double-Dissent, Exit Strategy” FOMC Press Conference – Live Feed

Having used the most words ever in an FOMC statement to describe the total shenanigans that they have created, Janet Yellen prepares to ‘meet the press’ to explain how ‘considerably’ well things are going and yet how much ‘considerably’ more is needed to be done… For now the meme is that this statement is more dovish than the previous one…

  • *PIMCO’S GROSS SAYS FED MORE DOVISH THAN HAWKISH NOW: CNBC

We suspect she will want to walk that back a little (before Nasdaq hits all-time record highs). And it isn’t just the Fed’s balance sheet, or total US debt, hitting daily highs, so is the number of words in the Fed’s statement:

Live Feed:



Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream




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The “Dots” Chart – Then And Now

Perhaps the one most important, if completely meaningless chart (because it will as usual revised countless times in the next year and the final outcome will be anything but what the Fed is predicting) that everyone was looking for in today’s FOMC forecast materials, is the so-called “dots” – the Fed’s estimates of where the Fed Fund’s rate will be at the end of 2016.

The big picture: while there is increasing clustering in the 2-2.5% region, the lower and higher forecasts actually went down, while the upper range of the Fed Funds rate forecast chart for 2016 was reduced from 6% to 5%.

In other words, when forecasting inflation, growth and the Fed Funds rate, the Fed will need a smaller chart.

And yet, while everything will surely change, one thing is certain: the one “dot” sliding ever lower has a name: Kocherladota.

Of note: while the chaos in the 2016 dots was clear, the 2015 “dots” actually rose from a median estimate of 1.125% in June to 1.375% in September.

And while the dots chart was a snoozer this time around, it was the “Number of participants that saw a rate hike in 2015” that got the most attention today, rising from 12 in June to 14 as of the most recent meeting, with only 2 now expecting a rate hike in 2016.

June:

 

and September:




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1uHJiUX Tyler Durden

The "Dots" Chart – Then And Now

Perhaps the one most important, if completely meaningless chart (because it will as usual revised countless times in the next year and the final outcome will be anything but what the Fed is predicting) that everyone was looking for in today’s FOMC forecast materials, is the so-called “dots” – the Fed’s estimates of where the Fed Fund’s rate will be at the end of 2016.

The big picture: while there is increasing clustering in the 2-2.5% region, the lower and higher forecasts actually went down, while the upper range of the Fed Funds rate forecast chart for 2016 was reduced from 6% to 5%.

In other words, when forecasting inflation, growth and the Fed Funds rate, the Fed will need a smaller chart.

And yet, while everything will surely change, one thing is certain: the one “dot” sliding ever lower has a name: Kocherladota.

Of note: while the chaos in the 2016 dots was clear, the 2015 “dots” actually rose from a median estimate of 1.125% in June to 1.375% in September.

And while the dots chart was a snoozer this time around, it was the “Number of participants that saw a rate hike in 2015” that got the most attention today, rising from 12 in June to 14 as of the most recent meeting, with only 2 now expecting a rate hike in 2016.

June:

 

and September:




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