Chart(s) Of The Day: A Decade Of GDP Revisions

What is the best word to describe GDP? One suggestion: changing.

Below we present select GDP data revisions over the past decade, from the initial release to the most recent, July 30 2014, nudging of historical GDP data.

First, the “old normal” ancient past:

 

Then, the Great Financial Crisis years:

 

And finally, the post-central planning period:

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qmWWJA Tyler Durden

The Fed’s Failure Complicates Its Endgame

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of ofTwoMinds blog,

To demonstrate it hasn't failed, the Fed must taper/withdraw its monetary heroin.

That the Federal Reserve's policies have failed is now so painfully evident that even the political class is awakening to this truth. Rather than re-ignite broad-based, self-sustaining economic growth, the Fed's loose-money policies (zero-interest rate policy a.k.a. ZIRP, and quantitative easing a.k.a. QE or free money for financiers), have perversely distorted the economy and widened wealth and income inequality.

After six long years of unprecedented monetary expansion and intervention–more than enough time to have succeeded in its stated purpose of restarting the real economy– political and financial blowback is forcing the Fed to withdraw its monetary heroin.

Unfortunately for the nation, the Fed's monetary heroin has addicted the economy to ZIRP, loose credit and free money for financiers. As a result, withdrawal will be painful, financially and politically.

The abject failure of these policies to aid Main Street while heaping wealth on Wall Street greatly complicates the Fed's endgame. Given the economy's dependence on the Fed's monetary heroin, declaring victory and beating a hasty retreat is not really an option: once the Fed stops delivery of monetary heroin, the economy will go into withdrawal, and the Fed's failure will be too obvious for even its most ardent backers to deny.

But if the Fed continues pushing its monetary heroin after six long years, its failure to energize the real economy will be equally obvious–as will the unintended consequences (blowback) of monetary heroin: malinvestment, systemic risk and a pernicious faith that the Fed will do whatever is necessary to keep the stock market lofting ever higher.

There are two basic schools of thought on the Fed's real agenda.

The mainstream view is the Fed is pursuing its stated goals of stabilizing inflation and employment. The other view is the Fed's real agenda is enriching its homies, the banking cartel, at the expense of the nation.

Since Wall Street has thrived while households and Main Street have seen earned income decline, the mainstream view is left with the unenviable task of explaining exactly how free money for financiers has helped J.Q. Citizen.

Household income has declined significantly in real terms: Five Decades of Middle Class Wages (Doug Short).

The first line of defense is the wealth effect, the notion that a rising stock market will make people feel wealthier and therefore more likely to borrow and spend money on stuff they don't need. This is of course the foundation of the U.S. economy: debt-based consumption, and it just so happens to generate gargantuan profits for lenders such as banks.

Unfortunately for the Fed apologists, only the top slice of wealthy households own enough equities to feel wealthier as stocks rise. Wealth in the U.S. is an inverted pyramid: the so-called "middle class" owns a small slice near the apex while the super-rich own the entire base:

The reality is the majority of households own a trivial amount of financial assets; the number of households with debt in collection far exceeds the number benefiting from the Fed's wealth effect, which not coincidentally has greatly enlarged the wealth of financiers and the few who own most of the financial assets.

This glaring disconnect between the Fed's publicly stated agenda and the results of its policies has created a political problem for the Fed. In the mainstream media's gauzy perception, the Fed is a god-like assembly that is above the grime of politics.

In truth, the Fed is as intrinsically political as any other branch of the Central State. The thundering gap between the Fed's stated goals and the results of its policies have, after six long years, reached the toadies and lackeys of the political class, who are now reluctantly stirring to the public demand to examine the Fed's closely played cards.

In other words, the failure of the Fed's policies has generated unwelcome political blowback. A few brave politicos have interrupted their campaign fund-raising long enough to grasp that the Fed has not just failed in some random fashion: the Fed is the problem, not the solution.

As a refresher, here is the Fed's Balance Sheet, bloated with over $3 trillion of freshly created money that was mainlined into the financial system:

Debt has skyrocketed under the guiding hand of the Fed's policies; GDP, not so much:

There is no mystery why the Fed's policies have failed. Fed policies have diverted interest income that once flowed to households to the banks, they've enabled the Federal government to borrow and squander trillions of dollars in deficit spending with no political trade-offs or consequences, and they've greatly incentivized malinvestments and risky bets.

Federal debt is borrowed from future generations. If it is squandered on consumption, it is effectively stealing from future generations, as their income will be devoted to paying interest on the trillions of dollars we have borrowed and blown propping up a bloated and ineffective Status Quo.

Perhaps most perniciously, the Fed has nurtured a belief that has now taken on a quasi-religious certainty that the Fed will never let the stock market go down. The Fed has bolstered this faith by launching a new free money for financiers program every time the stock market faltered.

As a direct result, nobody believes the Fed will actually reduce its monetary heroin or allow interest rates to normalize, i.e. rise: traders, money managers and the financial punditry are convinced that the Fed will soothe any tantrum thrown by Wall Street with another dose of monetary heroin.

This greatly complicates the Fed's endgame, because nobody will believe the Fed is serious about ending its monetary heroin until it allows the stock market to plummet off a cliff without rushing to save it with more free money for financiers.

The Fed is hoping to manage expectations and perceptions with such perfection that nobody notices the monetary heroin is no longer flowing. But this is an absurd fantasy: having addicted the stock market and the economy to monetary heroin over the past six years, how can the addict go through cold turkey withdrawal without being completely disrupted?

And in a delicious irony, should the Fed come to the rescue with another round of monetary heroin (free money for financiers), that will only demonstrate the complete and utter failure of the Fed's policies to generate sustainable growth in the real economy.

If the Fed has to rescue Wall Street yet again after six years and trillions of dollars of free money for financiers, that will prove beyond a shadow of doubt that the Fed has failed.

To demonstrate it hasn't failed, the Fed must taper/withdraw its monetary heroin.If the stock market tanks as a result, and the Fed rushes to the rescue with more free money for financiers, that will also prove the Fed has failed: if the economy and financial system is as robust as the Fed claims, why does it need to be rescued yet again after six long years of unprecedented injections of monetary heroin?

It's a double-bind with no escape. No matter what the Fed chooses to do, the failure of its policies to help households and Main Street while enriching wall Street and the banks will be revealed to all.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1u08ogE Tyler Durden

The Fed's Failure Complicates Its Endgame

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of ofTwoMinds blog,

To demonstrate it hasn't failed, the Fed must taper/withdraw its monetary heroin.

That the Federal Reserve's policies have failed is now so painfully evident that even the political class is awakening to this truth. Rather than re-ignite broad-based, self-sustaining economic growth, the Fed's loose-money policies (zero-interest rate policy a.k.a. ZIRP, and quantitative easing a.k.a. QE or free money for financiers), have perversely distorted the economy and widened wealth and income inequality.

After six long years of unprecedented monetary expansion and intervention–more than enough time to have succeeded in its stated purpose of restarting the real economy– political and financial blowback is forcing the Fed to withdraw its monetary heroin.

Unfortunately for the nation, the Fed's monetary heroin has addicted the economy to ZIRP, loose credit and free money for financiers. As a result, withdrawal will be painful, financially and politically.

The abject failure of these policies to aid Main Street while heaping wealth on Wall Street greatly complicates the Fed's endgame. Given the economy's dependence on the Fed's monetary heroin, declaring victory and beating a hasty retreat is not really an option: once the Fed stops delivery of monetary heroin, the economy will go into withdrawal, and the Fed's failure will be too obvious for even its most ardent backers to deny.

But if the Fed continues pushing its monetary heroin after six long years, its failure to energize the real economy will be equally obvious–as will the unintended consequences (blowback) of monetary heroin: malinvestment, systemic risk and a pernicious faith that the Fed will do whatever is necessary to keep the stock market lofting ever higher.

There are two basic schools of thought on the Fed's real agenda.

The mainstream view is the Fed is pursuing its stated goals of stabilizing inflation and employment. The other view is the Fed's real agenda is enriching its homies, the banking cartel, at the expense of the nation.

Since Wall Street has thrived while households and Main Street have seen earned income decline, the mainstream view is left with the unenviable task of explaining exactly how free money for financiers has helped J.Q. Citizen.

Household income has declined significantly in real terms: Five Decades of Middle Class Wages (Doug Short).

The first line of defense is the wealth effect, the notion that a rising stock market will make people feel wealthier and therefore more likely to borrow and spend money on stuff they don't need. This is of course the foundation of the U.S. economy: debt-based consumption, and it just so happens to generate gargantuan profits for lenders such as banks.

Unfortunately for the Fed apologists, only the top slice of wealthy households own enough equities to feel wealthier as stocks rise. Wealth in the U.S. is an inverted pyramid: the so-called "middle class" owns a small slice near the apex while the super-rich own the entire base:

The reality is the majority of households own a trivial amount of financial assets; the number of households with debt in collection far exceeds the number benefiting from the Fed's wealth effect, which not coincidentally has greatly enlarged the wealth of financiers and the few who own most of the financial assets.

This glaring disconnect between the Fed's publicly stated agenda and the results of its policies has created a political problem for the Fed. In the mainstream media's gauzy perception, the Fed is a god-like assembly that is above the grime of politics.

In truth, the Fed is as intrinsically political as any other branch of the Central State. The thundering gap between the Fed's stated goals and the results of its policies have, after six long years, reached the toadies and lackeys of the political class, who are now reluctantly stirring to the public demand to examine the Fed's closely played cards.

In other words, the failure of the Fed's policies has generated unwelcome political blowback. A few brave politicos have interrupted their campaign fund-raising long enough to grasp that the Fed has not just failed in some random fashion: the Fed is the problem, not the solution.

As a refresher, here is the Fed's Balance Sheet, bloated with over $3 trillion of freshly created money that was mainlined into the financial system:

Debt has skyrocketed under the guiding hand of the Fed's policies; GDP, not so much:

There is no mystery why the Fed's policies have failed. Fed policies have diverted interest income that once flowed to households to the banks, they've enabled the Federal government to borrow and squander trillions of dollars in deficit spending with no political trade-offs or consequences, and they've greatly incentivized malinvestments and risky bets.

Federal debt is borrowed from future generations. If it is squandered on consumption, it is effectively stealing from future generations, as their income will be devoted to paying interest on the trillions of dollars we have borrowed and blown propping up a bloated and ineffective Status Quo.

Perhaps most perniciously, the Fed has nurtured a belief that has now taken on a quasi-religious certainty that the Fed will never let the stock market go down. The Fed has bolstered this faith by launching a new free money for financiers program every time the stock market faltered.

As a direct result, nobody believes the Fed will actually reduce its monetary heroin or allow interest rates to normalize, i.e. rise: traders, money managers and the financial punditry are convinced that the Fed will soothe any tantrum thrown by Wall Street with another dose of monetary heroin.

This greatly complicates the Fed's endgame, because nobody will believe the Fed is serious about ending its monetary heroin until it allows the stock market to plummet off a cliff without rushing to save it with more free money for financiers.

The Fed is hoping to manage expectations and perceptions with such perfection that nobody notices the monetary heroin is no longer flowing. But this is an absurd fantasy: having addicted the stock market and the economy to monetary heroin over the past six years, how can the addict go through cold turkey withdrawal without being completely disrupted?

And in a delicious irony, should the Fed come to the rescue with another round of monetary heroin (free money for financiers), that will only demonstrate the complete and utter failure of the Fed's policies to generate sustainable growth in the real economy.

If the Fed has to rescue Wall Street yet again after six years and trillions of dollars of free money for financiers, that will prove beyond a shadow of doubt that the Fed has failed.

To demonstrate it hasn't failed, the Fed must taper/withdraw its monetary heroin.If the stock market tanks as a result, and the Fed rushes to the rescue with more free money for financiers, that will also prove the Fed has failed: if the economy and financial system is as robust as the Fed claims, why does it need to be rescued yet again after six lo
ng years of unprecedented injections of monetary heroin?

It's a double-bind with no escape. No matter what the Fed chooses to do, the failure of its policies to help households and Main Street while enriching wall Street and the banks will be revealed to all.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1u08ogE Tyler Durden

“US Will Feel Tangible Losses,” Russia Prepares To Unleash Retaliatory Trade Wars

It’s a troubling continuation/expansion of trade as a geopolitical tool,” warns one Washington-based consulting firm as Russia prepares to unleash retaliatory actions to US and European sanctions. As Bloomberg reports, Russia said yesterday it may ban imports of chicken from the U.S. and fruit from Europe and is investigating McDonald’s cheese for safety. In addition, a Russian lawmaker has drafted legislation that might result in U.S. accounting firms being barred from doing business in his country. All of this is odd given Jack “trust me” Lew’s reassurance that Russian sanctions would have no impact on the US economy. Russia’s response, US will feel ‘tangible losses’ from ‘destructive, myopic’ sanctions.

 

As Bloomberg reports, while Russia and the U.S. have long sparred over agricultural trade, the actions fueled speculation they could be retaliatory.

Russia’s food safety agency said it may ban imports of U.S. poultry and some European fruit due to contamination of the products, according Bloomberg BNA, citing Russian state media. The food safety agency, known as Rosselkhoznadzor, also said it will examine suppliers of McDonald’s cheese for their use of antibiotics.

 

Russia was the second-largest market, after Mexico, for U.S. chicken last year, according to the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council. The U.S. exported about $309 million worth of broiler chickens to Russia last year, according to the council.

 

Russia, which joined the World Trade Organization in 2012, is considering banning some European fruit that includes seeds and pits from the entire EU or from bloc’s individual member countries, said Alexei Alekseenko, an aide to Rosselkhoznadzor director Sergei Dankvert, BNA reported.

 

Fruit shipments from the EU have recently contained Oriental fruit moths, he said, according to the Russian news agency RIA. He proposed talks with EU suppliers over the issue.

Seems like that would impact the US and European economy…

“This is not a surprise,” Mike Cockrell, chief financial officer at Sanderson Farms Inc. (SAFM) of Laurel, Mississippi, said by phone. “It’s not unusual for Russia to find something wrong when they have a political reason to do so.”

 

Officials from McDonald’s, based in Oak Brook, Illinois, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Russia explained these are not anti-US sanctions…

“These are not sanctions against U.S. We don’t have a goal to harm U.S. citizens’ quality of life,” Fedorov said. “There are companies in Russia which have sensitive positions in terms of Russia’s sovereignty and economic security.”

 

Fedorov said consulting firms and audit firms will be the first to be targeted by the new bill. Next will be U.S. media, he said.

And Russia issued a statement that US will feel ‘tangible losses’ from ‘destructive, myopic’ sanctions.

We have repeatedly spoken about the illegitimacy and groundlessness of the US sanctions against Russia. Washington will gain nothing from such decisions except for further complication of Russian-American relations and the creation of an unfavorable atmosphere in international affairs, where the cooperation between our countries often plays a key role.

 

The U.S. administration, strained creating the appearance of “sequence” in its current behavior, in fact, is merely trying to avoid responsibility for the tragic developments in Ukraine. Not Russia, and Kiev regime and its overseas patrons guilty of a growing number of civilian casualties in the eastern regions. In his pompous manner prosecutorial White House, covering the bloody military operation of Kiev, which contrary to all international norms sunk to rocket attacks peaceful cities, continues to put forward baseless claims against us.

 

One gets the impression that the U.S. sanctions pressure, transformed now at sectoral level, has one goal – to get even with us for an independent and uncomfortable for Washington politics. Please also note the obvious elements of unscrupulous trade and economic competition in the U.S. actions.

The losses that Washington will sustain from such a destructive and myopic policy will be very tangible

US officials are not happy…

“Assuming that they take this action, it would be blatant protectionism,” Clayton Yeutter, a U.S. Trade Representative under President Ronald Reagan, said in a phone interview. “There is little or no legitimacy to their complaints.”

*  *  *
Putin warned of boomerangs… and sure enough here they come…

  • *EU ENERGY SANCTIONS `IRRESPONSIBLE’ STEP, RUSSIA SAYS
  • *EU ENERGY SANCTIONS TO CAUSE PRICE INCREASE IN EUROPE: RUSSIA
  • *RUSSIA TO WEIGH `UNCONSTRUCTIVE’ EU ATTITUDE IN FUTURE TIES
  • *EU BANKS WORKING IN RUSSIA MKT TO SUFFER FROM SANCTIONS: RUSSIA

And France is screwed…

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said Wednesday that Russia has the capability to build Mistral-class helicopter carriers on its own if France cancels the existing contract, RIA Novosti reported. “The French must prove they are serious partners and reliable contractors,” Rogozin said after a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and government ministers.

 

“If they fail to do so, we will build the [Mistral] ships on our own. We are finally capable to do it,” Rogozin said. On Monday, he expressed doubts that France would cancel the contract, which he said would be worse for France than for Russia.

And it seems Russia is not as isolated as President Obama would like everyone to think…

  • VEB IN TALKS W/ CHINA, JAPAN, ARAB COUNTRIES ON FUNDING


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1AyG1dZ Tyler Durden

"US Will Feel Tangible Losses," Russia Prepares To Unleash Retaliatory Trade Wars

It’s a troubling continuation/expansion of trade as a geopolitical tool,” warns one Washington-based consulting firm as Russia prepares to unleash retaliatory actions to US and European sanctions. As Bloomberg reports, Russia said yesterday it may ban imports of chicken from the U.S. and fruit from Europe and is investigating McDonald’s cheese for safety. In addition, a Russian lawmaker has drafted legislation that might result in U.S. accounting firms being barred from doing business in his country. All of this is odd given Jack “trust me” Lew’s reassurance that Russian sanctions would have no impact on the US economy. Russia’s response, US will feel ‘tangible losses’ from ‘destructive, myopic’ sanctions.

 

As Bloomberg reports, while Russia and the U.S. have long sparred over agricultural trade, the actions fueled speculation they could be retaliatory.

Russia’s food safety agency said it may ban imports of U.S. poultry and some European fruit due to contamination of the products, according Bloomberg BNA, citing Russian state media. The food safety agency, known as Rosselkhoznadzor, also said it will examine suppliers of McDonald’s cheese for their use of antibiotics.

 

Russia was the second-largest market, after Mexico, for U.S. chicken last year, according to the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council. The U.S. exported about $309 million worth of broiler chickens to Russia last year, according to the council.

 

Russia, which joined the World Trade Organization in 2012, is considering banning some European fruit that includes seeds and pits from the entire EU or from bloc’s individual member countries, said Alexei Alekseenko, an aide to Rosselkhoznadzor director Sergei Dankvert, BNA reported.

 

Fruit shipments from the EU have recently contained Oriental fruit moths, he said, according to the Russian news agency RIA. He proposed talks with EU suppliers over the issue.

Seems like that would impact the US and European economy…

“This is not a surprise,” Mike Cockrell, chief financial officer at Sanderson Farms Inc. (SAFM) of Laurel, Mississippi, said by phone. “It’s not unusual for Russia to find something wrong when they have a political reason to do so.”

 

Officials from McDonald’s, based in Oak Brook, Illinois, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Russia explained these are not anti-US sanctions…

“These are not sanctions against U.S. We don’t have a goal to harm U.S. citizens’ quality of life,” Fedorov said. “There are companies in Russia which have sensitive positions in terms of Russia’s sovereignty and economic security.”

 

Fedorov said consulting firms and audit firms will be the first to be targeted by the new bill. Next will be U.S. media, he said.

And Russia issued a statement that US will feel ‘tangible losses’ from ‘destructive, myopic’ sanctions.

We have repeatedly spoken about the illegitimacy and groundlessness of the US sanctions against Russia. Washington will gain nothing from such decisions except for further complication of Russian-American relations and the creation of an unfavorable atmosphere in international affairs, where the cooperation between our countries often plays a key role.

 

The U.S. administration, strained creating the appearance of “sequence” in its current behavior, in fact, is merely trying to avoid responsibility for the tragic developments in Ukraine. Not Russia, and Kiev regime and its overseas patrons guilty of a growing number of civilian casualties in the eastern regions. In his pompous manner prosecutorial White House, covering the bloody military operation of Kiev, which contrary to all international norms sunk to rocket attacks peaceful cities, continues to put forward baseless claims against us.

 

One gets the impression that the U.S. sanctions pressure, transformed now at sectoral level, has one goal – to get even with us for an independent and uncomfortable for Washington politics. Please also note the obvious elements of unscrupulous trade and economic competition in the U.S. actions.

The losses that Washington will sustain from such a destructive and myopic policy will be very tangible

US officials are not happy…

“Assuming that they take this action, it would be blatant protectionism,” Clayton Yeutter, a U.S. Trade Representative under President Ronald Reagan, said in a phone interview. “There is little or no legitimacy to their complaints.”

*  *  *
Putin warned of boomerangs… and sure enough here they come…

  • *EU ENERGY SANCTIONS `IRRESPONSIBLE’ STEP, RUSSIA SAYS
  • *EU ENERGY SANCTIONS TO CAUSE PRICE INCREASE IN EUROPE: RUSSIA
  • *RUSSIA TO WEIGH `UNCONSTRUCTIVE’ EU ATTITUDE IN FUTURE TIES
  • *EU BANKS WORKING IN RUSSIA MKT TO SUFFER FROM SANCTIONS: RUSSIA

And France is screwed…

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said Wednesday that Russia has the capability to build Mistral-class helicopter carriers on its own if France cancels the existing contract, RIA Novosti reported. “The French must prove they are serious partners and reliable contractors,” Rogozin said after a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and government ministers.

 

“If they fail to do so, we will build the [Mistral] ships on our own. We are finally capable to do it,” Rogozin said. On Monday, he expressed doubts that France would cancel the contract, which he said would be worse for France than for Russia.

And it seems Russia is not as isolated as President Obama would like everyone to think…

  • VEB IN TALKS W/ CHINA, JAPAN, ARAB COUNTRIES ON FUNDING


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1AyG1dZ Tyler Durden

Argentine Bonds Soar To Record Highs As Hope Rules (For Now)

While last night saw’The Holdouts’ and ‘The Argentina Delegation’ come face-to-face for the first time in a decade for negotiations, when they went to bed late last night, there was no resolution. No news yet this morning of when the meeting will reconvene but it appears market participants are hopeful… The Argentina 2033 bonds are exploding higher. ARG 2033s are up over 10 points to a record-high price of 97.50. Let’s hope they are not disappointed at the hopes for a bank bailout. Of course, we saw this kind of exuberant jump right after the initial pro-holdouts ruling drop…

 

 

This is what is driving the rally:

Members of Argentina’s banking association, known as Adeba, are working on a last-minute plan to help the country avoid default, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

The bankers association’s plan, which hasn’t been completely hashed out among the banks, would entail buying the legal claim and paying off the holdout creditors who are suing Argentina in U.S. courts for full payment on bonds the country defaulted on in 2001.

 

In exchange, the banks would ask the holdouts to ask U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa, whose ruling has barred Argentina from paying its restructured bondholders unless it pays off the holdouts, to suspend his ruling.

 

 

Another person said the idea is for the banks to buy the government’s claim in three cash installments. In exchange, the banks would ask the government to pay them back in bonds beginning in January, when a key clause in the case expires.

Charts: Bloomberg




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1zv4cZu Tyler Durden

Greenspan Fears “False Dawn” In US Economy, Warns Of “Equity Correction At Some Point”

Equity bulls should be exuberant. The last time Alan Greenspan warned of exuberance and potential for a correction, stocks soared for a few more years. While Yellen’s stock-picking skills have been questioned in recent days, Greenspan has once again weighed in:

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS ‘KEY QUESTION’ IS WHETHER U.S. FACES FALSE DAWN
  • *GREENSPAN PREDICTS AT SOME POINT EQUITIES TO HAVE CORRECTION

Although Greenspan declined to second-guess the Fed, he sees a problem moving toward “normalized” policy for his descendants.

 

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Greenspan has lots to say…

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS `OPEN QUESTION’ WHETHER INFLATION WILL SURPRISE
  • *GREENSPAN DECLINES TO `SECOND GUESS THE FED’
  • *GREENSPAN SEES `A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY’ ON ECONOMY
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE’
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS HE’S CONCERNED BY SLOWER OUTPUT PER HOUR
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS PRODUCTIVITY WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCELERATING
  • *GREENSPAN SEES PROBLEM MOVING TOWARD `NORMALIZED’ POLICY

He is also an oil analyst…

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS OIL MARKET HAS EXCESS CAPACITY, SLACK
  • *GREENSPAN: WITHOUT MIDDLE EAST TENSION OIL PRICES WOULD FALL
  • *GREENSPAN: CRUDE WOULD BE $15-$20 LOWER IF NOT FOR MIDEAST WOES

And warns of US fiscal problems…

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. LACKS `FISCAL RESOURCES’
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. HAS `NO WAY TO FIND NEW REVENUES’
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. `RUNNING OUT OF BUFFER IN ECONOMY’
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS FISCAL POLICY MAY PUT STATUS OF DOLLAR AT RISK

And then there’s this…

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS DOLLAR HELD `IN EXTRAORDINARY ESTEEM’

Except in Russia, China, Brazil, and India?




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1zuRIB8 Tyler Durden

Greenspan Fears "False Dawn" In US Economy, Warns Of "Equity Correction At Some Point"

Equity bulls should be exuberant. The last time Alan Greenspan warned of exuberance and potential for a correction, stocks soared for a few more years. While Yellen’s stock-picking skills have been questioned in recent days, Greenspan has once again weighed in:

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS ‘KEY QUESTION’ IS WHETHER U.S. FACES FALSE DAWN
  • *GREENSPAN PREDICTS AT SOME POINT EQUITIES TO HAVE CORRECTION

Although Greenspan declined to second-guess the Fed, he sees a problem moving toward “normalized” policy for his descendants.

 

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Greenspan has lots to say…

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS `OPEN QUESTION’ WHETHER INFLATION WILL SURPRISE
  • *GREENSPAN DECLINES TO `SECOND GUESS THE FED’
  • *GREENSPAN SEES `A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY’ ON ECONOMY
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE’
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS HE’S CONCERNED BY SLOWER OUTPUT PER HOUR
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS PRODUCTIVITY WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCELERATING
  • *GREENSPAN SEES PROBLEM MOVING TOWARD `NORMALIZED’ POLICY

He is also an oil analyst…

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS OIL MARKET HAS EXCESS CAPACITY, SLACK
  • *GREENSPAN: WITHOUT MIDDLE EAST TENSION OIL PRICES WOULD FALL
  • *GREENSPAN: CRUDE WOULD BE $15-$20 LOWER IF NOT FOR MIDEAST WOES

And warns of US fiscal problems…

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. LACKS `FISCAL RESOURCES’
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. HAS `NO WAY TO FIND NEW REVENUES’
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. `RUNNING OUT OF BUFFER IN ECONOMY’
  • *GREENSPAN SAYS FISCAL POLICY MAY PUT STATUS OF DOLLAR AT RISK

And then there’s this…

  • *GREENSPAN SAYS DOLLAR HELD `IN EXTRAORDINARY ESTEEM’

Except in Russia, China, Brazil, and India?




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1zuRIB8 Tyler Durden

GDP Sparks Gold Dump, Stock Pump

Bond yields jumped over 4bps on the better than expected GDP print. Stocks popped along with the USD index. Gold was flip-flopped all over the place – an initial dump was followed by a rip back over $1300 only to be sold back down to $1295 now… Equity exuberance is fading back a little now as machines ‘read’ the anti-goldilocks ADP print and inventory-stuffed Fed-hawk-supporting GDP print as indicative of a punch bowl that just got dragged away a little more…

 




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1AyqsTu Tyler Durden