Citing Misleading OANN Story, Trump Claims Injured Buffalo Protester Could Be ‘Antifa Provocateur’

Is Martin Gugino, the 75-year-old activist who suffered a head injury after cops in Buffalo, New York, pushed him down, an “antifa provocateur” intent on setting up the cops? President Donald Trump raised this possibility in a tweet Tuesday morning, citing a report by the unfailingly pro-Trump One America News Network (OANN).

He really shouldn’t have. Regardless of what Gugino intended, there’s no excuse for how the police officers handled him. It was wrong of them to shove an elderly man who posed no threat to them.

In any case, there’s no reason to think Gugino was “an antifa provocateur,” and it was deeply irresponsible of Trump to raise this unlikely possibility.

The OANN report was based on an anonymously written blog post at a website called The Conservative Treehouse and occasionally The Last Refuge. It claims that Gugino is a “professional agitator and Antifa provocateur” and theorizes that he may have used his phone to scan the officers’ communications just before they pushed him. There are kernels of semi-truth here: Gugino may have been scanning police communications, and a couple of pieces of information on social media suggest he is something of a professional protester. Gugino was affiliated with the Catholic Worker movement—a nonviolent activist group—and several other organizations, according to interviews with his friends:

A handful of social media posts claim Gugino, a known activist, was taunting the police. Friend and fellow activist, Palina Prasasouk, says he wasn’t trying to be hostile with law enforcement.

“When he was trying to approach the cops there, I saw him as being, ‘Hey I want a conversation.’ That’s Martin. He likes to talk to people on the streets,” said Prasasouk.

Gugino has participated in many protests—and not just in Buffalo. He met both Colville and Prasasouk while protesting against the Guantanamo Bay detention camp. He was also seen demanding murder charges against the Cleveland police officer who killed Tamir Rice.

“I think it would break his heart, not being able to go back out on the streets, if he has long-term effects from this,” added Prasasouk.

Gugino is also a member of PUSH Buffalo and Western New York Peace Center, among others. Colville believes Gugino wants more people to go out into the street, taking his place.

PUSH is an activist group founded by Jesse Jackson, and the Western New York Peace Center is an anti-violence organization.

These are left-wing groups, but they aren’t violent left-wing groups—they are explicitly dedicated to peace and nonviolence. That puts them in a very different camp from antifa, which explicitly condones violence (and often practices it) as a tactic of resistance against the far-right. So the additional information about Gugino really makes it less likely that he would identify himself as part of antifa.

Nor does the video footage of the encounter between Gugino and the police really evince antifa-like behavior, even if he was scanning police communications. Antifa activists tend to disguise their identities by wearing masks and dark colors. They move in crowds and fade into the background after committing a criminal act. They don’t walk up to the authorities hoping to get hit—they are the ones doing the hitting. The OANN report betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of antifa, which the president evidently shares.

It’s worth remembering that we have scant evidence of widespread antifa involvement in the recent protests. Most of the rioting and looting is not connected to a specific left-wing political agenda: It’s random troublemakers causing mayhem and stealing things at opportunistic moments.

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Antifa Militia Wing Wants ‘Complete Abolition’ Of System; Coached Undercover Veritas Journo To Deny Affiliation

Antifa Militia Wing Wants ‘Complete Abolition’ Of System; Coached Undercover Veritas Journo To Deny Affiliation

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/09/2020 – 11:25

Project Veritas has released their third installment of #ExposeANTIFA, after undercover journalists infiltrated the leftist movement  to expose their violent tactics.

In their latest, Veritas has released footage of their 2018 infiltration into Antifa’s Shelby, North Carolina self-described “above ground militant formation” known as Redneck Revolt, or the “John Brown gun club” – a ‘militia wing’ of Antifa founded in June, 2016 which claims to have 30 branches nationwide.

“They share the Antifa ideology and it can be shared by many different groups,” said the journalist. “Typically, Antifa that you see on TV are the ones that are dressed all in black… You know, and they go and throw rocks or bricks and start trouble.”

This particular group sees themselves as armed revolutionaries. They’re all about the working class. You know, so they share this communist anarchist ideal that the working class should run the country with no government. And they believe in total abolition of everything, including the police.

Via Far Left Watch

The group’s outward facing mission is to oppose “white supremacy,” while also espousing anti-capitalist, anti-wealth rhetoric with calls for “militant resistance” and “revolution,” according to Far Left Watch. The group recruits at gun shows and community events, “contributing to the far left anarchist website It’s Going Down, and conducting armed anti-Trump demonstrations.”

But what’s most alarming are the resources they provide on their website. They promote several PDFs that endorse “armed struggle” and even offer a 36 page “Mini-Manual Of The Urban Guerrilla” (bottom right of resource page) which pictures left-wing militants using RPGs and outlines tactics for guerrilla warfare including sections on “sabotage”, “kidnapping”, “executions”, “armed propaganda”, and “terrorism”. –Far Left Watch.

“I hate the NRA. The NRA is a white supremacist terrorist organization,” said Paul Ditz, former leader of Redneck Revolt in footage captured by the undercover Veritas journalist – who was able to gain a foothold into the group after reaching out via Facebook messenger.

“They believe in total abolition of everything, including the police,” said the journalist, who added that after a day at the gun range, former Redneck Revolt member Matt (a.k.a. “Clyde”) began quizzing her on what she would do if asked about her affiliation with the group.

“If an officer of the state came to the door and asked you questions about your political ideology and people you associate with, how would you respond?” asked Matt.

“I would say no,” she replied.

“If you were tabling a gun show and someone loudly accused you of being a terrorist or part of Antifa, how would you handle it?” Matt then asked.

Ultimately the group cut ties with the PV journalist after they discovered she endorsed a sheriff over social media, telling her that she was no longer welcome to attend gatherings due to posing a “security risk.”

Watch:

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3cNR8Hl Tyler Durden

Why One Bank Thinks Retail Euphoria Will “Force The Fed’s Hand” To End The Meltup

Why One Bank Thinks Retail Euphoria Will “Force The Fed’s Hand” To End The Meltup

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/09/2020 – 11:06

You know the euphoria gripping stock markets is off the charts when retail investors have now taken over the market, as we first posted three weeks ago in, “How Retail Investors Took Over The Stock Market” and as Bloomberg repeated today with “Everywhere You Look Under Surging Stocks Is Fervid Retail Buying.” And while there is nothing wrong with a little healthy speculation in a market in which the Fed has eliminated most – if not all – risk, when the frenzied daytrading mob sends the stock of bankrupt Hertz 10x higher on massive volume, pushing its market cap to just shy of $1 billion, it’s becoming a problem for marketplace integrity. After all, everyone remembers the retail infatuation with cryptos in late 2017/early 2018 which pushed bitcoin to $20K only to see the crypto plunging, resulting in massive losses for retail investors.

Does Powell really want to risk turning off another generation of retail investors from stocks when the latest melting-up asset bubble – which is far greater than either the dot com or the housing bubble – bursts with catastrophic consequences for middle class net worth?

According to SMBC Nikko’s Masao Muraki the answer is no, and as the strategist writes, “soaring risk asset prices (ie imbalances) have reached a point where the Fed may be forced into some kind of action.”

Muraki explains his non-consensus  below in his latest note, why “soaring equity/credit prices could force Fed action”

Melt-up on equity and credit markets

Prices of risk assets are soaring as resumption of economic activity stokes expectations for a V-shaped recovery in corporate profits.

Divergence between the US ISM Manufacturing index/PMI and the S&P500 and between the US corporate debt-GDP ratio and corporate bond spreads is now wide and we think the melt-up (surging asset prices and battle for risk assets) that we anticipated in our 7 April 2020 report is occurring.

We attribute the melt-up to 1) a resumption of unavoidable risk-taking by pension funds, life insurers, and individual investors, 2) delays in removing fiscal, monetary, and credit policy measures, and 3) expectations for additional measures to tackle second waves of infections.

Interest rates rising worldwide

With a melt-up in progress, there is upward pressure on long-term interest rates in the US, Europe, Japan, and China, which had been stable at low levels.

Yield curves have steepened notably for maturities of over 10 years. We believe upward pressure on interest rates reflects

  1. expectations for recoveries in economic conditions (ISM/PMI),
  2. pressure from long-term debt issuance due to fiscal stimulus,
  3. speculation regarding Fed monetary policy plans, and
  4. a squeeze on positions of investors and financial institutions anticipating flattening yields.

For 1), economic sentiment (ISM/PMI) has been the main determinant of US 10-year interest rates (Figures 16-18), suggesting that further upward pressure on interest rates is possible if PMIs pick up quickly (even if followed later by a second bottom).

For 2), soaring risk asset prices (ie imbalances) have reached a point where the Fed may be forced into some kind of action.

Fed cutting pace of asset purchases

The Fed’s irregular policy response since March has had five main goals:

  1. subduing the liquidity crunch,
  2. lowering funding costs for companies and households by depressing the risk-free rate,
  3. lowering funding costs for companies by depressing risk premia,
  4. generating wealth effects by depressing risk premia, and
  5. partially averting corporate bankruptcies and lay-offs resulting from cash-flow difficulties.

Monetary policy has been sufficiently effective for goals 1-4, but it has not necessarily done enough for 5). Still, the Fed only aims to provide limited support given issues with funding and moral hazard (issue of bailing out large and mid-tier companies that were taking excessive financial risk). While there is upward pressure on interest rates amid expectations for large-scale Treasury issuance, the NY Fed continues to cut back its Treasury purchases (average of $50bn daily over 6-9 Apr -> $5bn daily over 26-29 May -> $4bn daily over 8-12 Jun).

Countering side-effects and normalizing monetary policy: 2 focus points

We focus on whether the Fed expresses concern over soaring share prices and how it moves to counter side-effects and normalize monetary policy.

1. B/S policy

We think the first key point is whether the Fed continues to reduce purchases of long-term Treasuries and MBS, which it is already tapering.

Fed B/S expansion has clearly been inflating equity and credit market valuations (Figures 6-7).

The Fed was forced to respond to the first liquidity crunch (expansion of funding cost premia for banks and risk premia for high-rated bonds) since the GFC in Feb-Mar, but expansion of the Fed B/S, which swelled rapidly due to the liquidity support measures, is slowing as bank financing stabilizes and liquidity premia improve (Figures 10-11).

We expect the focus of B/S policy to shift from liquidity support to provision of credit to corporations (eg MSLP) and then back to conventional QE.

2. Monetary policy: Fed’s ideal yield curve

We think the second key point will be when the Fed adopts yield curve control (YCC) and the maturities that it targets.

Since introducing YCC (through 10y), the BOJ has intervened on multiple occasions to steepen the curve by encouraging yields in the over-10y zone to move higher with a view to mitigating side-effects of falling super-long yields for life insurers and pension funds. In the US, excessive declines in long-term (over 5y) yields are becoming an issue due to the side-effect of excessive risk-taking by investors with fixed required rates of investment return (pension funds, life insurers, individuals).

At its October 2019 FOMC meeting, the Fed held comprehensive discussions on monetary policy instruments to address the issue of the effective lower bound (ELB: situation where declines in natural rate of interest mean that easing effects are insufficient even if short-term rates are cut to zero). The Fed ultimately ruled out negative interest rates for the time being while highlighting YCC (capping medium-term rates) as a promising option. YCC has also been discussed more recently as a future option.  The current asset-price imbalances may influence discussions over whether to introduce YCC and whether to shorten the target maturity (2y rather than 5y). YCC design and B/S policy are factors that could lead to changes in long-term interest rates. 

Risk of sharp declines in risk asset prices

The biggest risk that could trigger declines in prices of risk assets is delayed improvement in economic conditions or a return to deterioration. European/US bank managements are cautioning that markets are pricing in an overly optimistic scenario at present and that fiscal and monetary policy support could be exhausted as the economic recovery turns out to be W-shaped (see our 29 May 2020 report). In addition, fundamentals in emerging markets continue to worsen.

Furthermore, we can no longer ignore risk that rising asset prices in developed economies will lead to a negative chain where interest rates in developed economies rise, hitting economic conditions and asset prices in developed economies and EM currencies and commodity prices.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/37jNPX1 Tyler Durden

Peter Schiff Exposes The Fed’s Mission Impossible

Peter Schiff Exposes The Fed’s Mission Impossible

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/09/2020 – 10:45

Via SchiffGold.com,

The markets were giddy Friday after a much better than expected jobs report boosted optimism for a quick v-shaped recovery as the economy opens back up. But in his podcast Friday, Peter Schiff poured some cold water on this notion. He said given the amount of stimulus that the Federal Reserve and the US government have pumped into the economy, unwinding it all will be mission impossible.

Friday’s Labor Department unemployment report was a real shocker. Analysts expected another big month of job losses in May. Instead, the economy added just over 2.5 million jobs. The unemployment rate fell from 14.7% to 13.3%.

We know there were a significant number of layoffs in May. New unemployment claims averaged around 2 million a week. But apparently, a lot of the 20 million-plus people who lost their jobs in April were rehired in May.

How do we make sense of these numbers?

Peter said he thinks a lot of the rehiring was incentivized by government programs.

Remember, one of the reasons is the government is paying companies either to not fire people in the first place or to rehire them. Remember, when you took out a loan, the PPP loans – Payroll Protection Program – it’s a grant if you don’t fire anybody. And if you fire people, as long as you bring them back, then you don’t have to repay the loan. So, there probably was a lot of pressure on a lot of businesses to rehire people that they probably don’t even need. But if they don’t bring them back, they’re going to have to pay back the PPP loan, so they brought them back anyway. “

If this is true, then a lot of the people who got rehired may well end up getting refired.

You don’t have to keep these people on the books permanently in order not to repay the loan. You just have to get them back on the books long enough to get the loan forgiven. And remember, there’s a lot of other companies, like the airlines, for example, who got a lot of bailout money upfront on the condition that they didn’t lay people off. Well, there’s a date where now they can start laying people off. So, I think we have a lot of artificial incentives or interference in the market.”

On top of that, the government is spending a lot of money it doesn’t have. Deficits are exploding. The Federal Reserve is printing trillions of dollars. All to keep people employed.

How great would these [unemployment] numbers be if it wasn’t for these massive deficits and all this money printing that is simply postponing a lot of the layoffs that were going to happen eventually anyway? In fact, we may end up exacerbating the number of layoffs because we may be financially weakening a lot of these companies with the incentives that we put into place.”

Peter said that it’s ironic that even with the surprising jobs report, President Trump is calling for more stimulus.

If the economy is so strong, why do we need to stimulate it even more?”

The unemployment report sent US stock markets soaring and gold tumbling as investors became even more optimistic about the so-called v-shaped recovery. But Peter raises an important question for people who believe the worst is behind us and the economy is about to come roaring back.

How is the Fed going to withdraw all that liquidity? The Fed put all this liquidity into the economy. It created all this money based on a more substantial downturn – a longer-lasting deeper recession/depression. And to be preemptive, they just basically threw out the kitchen sink in terms of money printing. And they printed all this money, and bought up all these bonds, and all these corporate bonds that they now own, but what if they panicked? What if now everything is fine? How does the Fed withdraw that liquidity? It’s impossible! How are they going to turn around and start selling all the bonds they bought? How are they going to raise interest rates  when the whole supposed snap-back is 100% a function of all the money they printed?”

If the recession is over, even the Keynesians have to concede inflation is a threat. If prices start to rise, is the Fed just going to let that happen?

What happens to the so-called recovery if interest rates and consumer prices go up? So the whole thing is impossible. To believe that we’re going to have a recovery this quickly is impossible given what that would do and what that would force the Federal Reserve to do, which means there goes your recovery.”

It’s important to remember that the economy was not healthy before COVID-19. The Fed was already engaged in rate-cutting and QE. The federal government was already on track for a $1 trillion deficit.

This recession began with a bang, but it is not over. We’re having a little bit of a bounce now. You have some false optimism about a recovery around the corner. But the economic damage existed before COVID-19 and now it’s even greater.”

Peter went on to analyze the stock market reaction to the jobs report.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/30rBvmm Tyler Durden

JOLTs Shock: 4.5 Unemployed Workers For Every Job Opening As Hiring Craters, Quits Soar

JOLTs Shock: 4.5 Unemployed Workers For Every Job Opening As Hiring Craters, Quits Soar

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/09/2020 – 10:31

With the BLS’s JOLTs, or job openings and labor turnover, survey coming in with an extra month delay, we already knew that the April data would be the worst on record, and sure enough that’s what happened when the BLS reported that in April the number of job openings plunged from a revised 6.011 million to just 5.046 million, a level last seen in 2014, with the two-month drop of nearly 2 million job openings the largest on record going back to 2000.

The largest declines in job openings took place in professional and business services (-309,000), health care and social assistance (-115,000), and retail trade (-113,000).

While we already knew that the series of 24 consecutive months in which there were more job openings than unemployed workers ended in March, in April it was an absolute doozy with 18 million more unemployed workers than there are job openings, the biggest gap on record. As a result, there were about 4.5 unemployed workers for every job opening.

If this data is accurate, and if indeed there wasn’t a surge in job openings amid the mass layoffs of March and April, then hopes for a sharp rebound in the labor market will be dashed because employers are simply not hiring.

Also far worse will be the number of hires, which in April crashed by a record 1.6 million, from 5.111 million to 3.524 million, something which one can argue was long overdue considering the persistent outperformance of this series relative to the rolling 12 month payroll change. Hires  decreased for total private (-1,439,000) and for government (-148,000). Hires decreased in a number of industries, with the largest declines in professional and business services (-422,000), accommodation and food services (-247,000), and construction (-196,000)

Additionally, in April the number of layoffs was 9.888 million, down from the record 14.6 million in March. . The number of layoffs and discharges decreased for total private to 7.5 million (-3,816,000) but increased for government to 216,000 (+43,000). The layoffs and discharges level decreased significantly in several industries. The majority of the decline occurred in accommodation and food services (-2,738,000) followed by retail trade (-338,000). Layoffs and discharges increased in construction (+85,000), information (+53,000), and wholesale trade (+50,000).

And, inversely, with everyone getting fired, virtually nobody had any interest in voluntarily quitting and such the number of quits tumbled by the most ever, from 2.789MM to just 1.786MM, the lowest level since May 2010. Quits decreased in a number of industries, with the largest decreases in accommodation and food services (-249,000) and professional and business services (-216,000).

 

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“All I Do Is Make Money, This Game Is F**king Easy!”

“All I Do Is Make Money, This Game Is F**king Easy!”

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/09/2020 – 10:25

Presented with little comment, aside to say, take cover…

Barstool’s Dave “I am the world’s greatest day trader” Portnoy offers some insights from his experience “trading” stocks in recent weeks:

“Buffett is an idiot”

“All I do is make money, this game is fucking easy. Literally the easiest game I’ve ever played. All I do is print money.”

“I should be up a billion dollars.”

As Global Macro Monitor rightly notedthis is the most epic signal of a blow-off top yet.

Dear Jay Powell – see what you have created!??

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3hb82Tz Tyler Durden

Buchanan: The Left’s Coming War On Cops

Buchanan: The Left’s Coming War On Cops

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/09/2020 – 10:05

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

Newly painted in huge yellow letters on 16th Street, just north of the White House, is the slogan: “Defund the Police.”

That new message sits beside the “Black Lives Matter” slogan, also in huge letters, painted there at the direction of D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser.

She renamed that section of 16th Street “Black Lives Matter Plaza.”

Still, the messages are less ominous than the chants of protesters in New York after the takedown that resulted in the death of Eric Garner.

Protesters then chanted of the NYPD: “What do we want? Dead cops. When do we want it? Now!”

While this sudden campaign to defund and dismantle city police forces seems an absurdity, it is actually part of a thought-out radical program that has gained momentum since the sadistic public execution of George Floyd in Minneapolis two weeks ago.

Consider. On Sunday, nine members of the city council, a veto-proof majority, voted to disband the Minneapolis police department. Asked if he would support the council decision, Mayor Jacob Frey hedged, “I do not support the full abolition of the police.”

As the crowd jeered and booed, the mayor walked away alone.

The idea of defunding police departments has caught fire, and liberal politicians are scrambling to get in front of their radical constituents. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has announced that he will reallocate up to $150 million from the LAPD budget to social programs.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio says he will be transferring $1 billion: “We will be moving funding from the NYPD to youth initiatives and social services.”

In two weeks, there has been a sea change in attitudes toward police, with not a few coming to share the hard left’s hatred. While the criminal elements burned cop cars and showered police with bottles, rocks and bricks, even “peaceful protesters” were calling the police fascists and racists.

Two decades ago, the NYPD were celebrated “first responders” who ran toward the collapsing twin towers, many never to come back. Funerals of the cop heroes were televised. Those days are gone.

Indeed, after two weeks of seeing police decried on nightly TV as racist oppressors of African Americans, cops must realize that they are reviled and detested by some of the countrymen they have sworn to protect.

What will happen now is predictable, as it has happened before.

To pander to the militants on the left, liberal politicians will devise new restrictions on cops and more severe punishments for infractions, treating the police as potential threats to civil and constitutional rights.

The “Ferguson Effect” will take hold. Cops will back off from confronting the lawless and violent. Criminals will see an opening to seize opportunities. The urban poor who look to the police as their only protection will stay inside and lock their doors. And small businesses, realizing the cops may not be there, will sell and move out.

Where is this leading?

According to former New York City Police Commissioner Bernie Kerik, not only did New York law enforcement officers suffer many injuries in the riots, hundreds of cops, seeing how they are regarded and were treated by many whom they protect, are preparing to leave the NYPD.

As the Democrats’ “police reform” bill is debated on the Hill, Republicans will largely stand with the police and Attorney General William Barr, who said Sunday that while there is racism in America, there is no “systemic racism” in the nation’s police departments.

If there were, it would be an indictment of the Democrats, who have run most of our great cities for decades.

As it rises in prominence, the issue of defunding police will divide the Democratic Party more than the GOP.

For while the hard left sees cops in ideological and class terms as racist and fascist, the right, by and large, sees the police as the last line of defense again the anarchy we saw erupt when there were not enough cops in New York and D.C. to control the mobs looting Fifth Avenue and Georgetown.

And this, too, is likely to become a forever war in America. For it is almost inevitable that we are going to see more violent collisions between white cops and black suspects, collisions that result in deaths.

For every large urban police force has daily encounters with black male criminals, who commit a disproportionate number of violent crimes. Some will end with dead cops, and the others with dead criminals.

President Donald Trump has taken his stand with the police.

It is Joe Biden who has the problem. For while Democratic mayors are unlikely to join a campaign to abolish their police forces, Biden is going to have to tell his Bernie Bro and socialist constituents that their ideas for getting rid of police departments are ridiculous.

Monday, Joe made a start. He said that defunding cops is off the table.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2zna5Ty Tyler Durden

Billionaire Ron Baron Says Tesla Could Still Go Up 10x From Current Levels

Billionaire Ron Baron Says Tesla Could Still Go Up 10x From Current Levels

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/09/2020 – 09:45

Billionaire investor Ron Baron took to CNBC this morning to do what he does best: insist, seemingly with no consideration on where Tesla’s current stock price is, that there’s more upside to come.

And why wouldn’t he?

It’s a formula that has worked for Baron, who has been able to ignore the Autopilot deaths, allegations of securities fraud, workplace safety issues, mysterious accounts receivable and inability to consistently generate an annual profit while riding a Tesla gamma squeeze from $300 to over $900 in just a matter of a couple of years.

On Tuesday, Baron said he thinks “there’s 10 times more to go” with Tesla stock and he also claimed that SpaceX would grow by a multiple of 20 in the next 10 years. “That is an amazing opportunity as well,” Baron said, unable to get his investing fill of the boy-wonder Elon Musk. 

When asked about when he was going to sell his Tesla, Baron responded: “I would like to get more money to be able to buy more Tesla.” 

But as noted short seller and Tesla skeptic Jim Chanos pointed out on Twitter Tuesday morning, Ron Baron’s firm was selling Tesla shares this yearaccording to Bloomberg. 

Baron had said back in February that Tesla could hit $1 trillion in revenue within 10 years. He is up 8% to 9% this year so far.

You can watch Baron’s full appearance, including his thoughts on macro (buy the dips, big surprise), Activision, Hyatt, Netflix and Charles Schwab here:

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2BH0Luj Tyler Durden

Is Asymptomatic Spread of COVID-19 Very Rare? Depends How You Define ‘Asymptomatic’

New confusion over asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19. We’ve been told by public health experts for weeks that COVID-19 is being spread in part by masses of sick people who show no symptoms. Now, World Health Organization (WHO) epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove says spread by asymptomatic people is “very rare.” What?

Former Food and Drug Administration head Scott Gottlieb said WHO is making premature conclusions. “Clearly there is some asymptomatic spread—the magnitude of it is going to take time to determine…and it’s going to take a lot better data than what WHO is basing this conclusion on quite frankly,” he said.

Still, some are already interpreting this as “another early scare about coronavirus [that] has been tamped down.” But Bloomberg News points out that WHO “had said as far back as February that it did not see asymptomatic cases as a major cause of viral spread.”

But the whole thing may be a miscommunication. Here’s more of Van Kerkhove’s comments on asymptomatic spread of COVID-19:

“When we actually go back and say, ‘How many of them were truly asymptomatic?’ we find out that many have really mild disease…They’re not quote-unquote COVID symptoms, meaning they may not have developed fever yet, they may not have had a significant cough, or they many not have shortness of breath. But some may have mild disease.”

As Slate‘s Will Saletan sums up: “Van Kerkhove said many people thought to be asymptomatic were actually mildly symptomatic. So we might just be reclassifying the undetected spread.”

Overall, people seem to be mixed up about what asymptomatic means.

“Some of the confusion lies in the distinction between the roles played by truly asymptomatic people and those who are merely pre-symptomatic—and later go on to become ill—in spreading the disease,” writes Bloomberg‘s Jeff Sutherland. “Pre-symptomatic individuals, who develop a higher viral load just before the onset of symptoms, may be infectious, the WHO said.”

A lot of our talk about asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 has included a) people who don’t yet have traditional symptoms (fever, cough, etc.) but will soon develop them and b) people who may never develop traditional COVID-19 symptoms but still show other signs of illness. However, the WHO does not seem to be including these people in its definition of asymptomatic. Its group of asymptomatic coronavirus carriers—those for whom passing on the disease is “very rare”—includes only people with the disease who never develop any symptoms.


QUICK HITS

• Video contradicts a police story yet again:

• Netflix has a new show, released May 29, starring Steve Carell as the head of the U.S. Space Force and, currently, “Netflix … is outmaneuvering the U.S. government to secure trademark rights globally to the armed services name,” notes The Hollywood Reporter.

• Parts of the world might be facing condom and birth control supply-chain interruptions due to COVID-19.

• “Where are libertarians on police reform?” Right where we’ve always been, writes J.D. Tuccille.

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“The Oft-noted Hollowing Out of the Middle Class is a Metropolitan Phenomenon”

It used to be the case that there was greater income inequality in rural areas than in metropolitan ones. Big cities and surrounding communities typically had a substantial middle class. Rural areas, on the other hand, had limited economic opportunities, and the wealth of a few individuals—such as owners of local industries or large land holdings, were outliers in rural parts of the country who would drive measures of inequality.

As Michael Petrilli writes in the WSJ, this is no longer the case. Dramatic increases for high-wage workers are driving increases in income inequality in major cities, such that income inequality is now just as much an urban phenomenon as a rural one. He writes:

In other words, the oft-noted hollowing out of the middle class is a metropolitan phenomenon. As the middle shrinks, big cities are increasingly divided between a highly educated, growing upper middle class and a low-wage, poorly educated service sector.

According to Petrilli, this has some important policy implications.

First, the American workers facing the greatest disadvantages today are poorly paid service employees living in big metropolitan areas, especially the thriving ones. As urbanist Richard Florida has pointed out, they face the double whammy of low wages and high living costs. They’re also suffering the worst effects of Covid-19, one of many health and social implications of inequality.

As many policy analysts have noted, a consequence of increasing urban wealth is an increase in housing prices. This can make things particularly difficult for power-income workers.

Petrilli thinks this also has implications for education:

it should be no surprise that well-educated urbanites earn lofty salaries. For educators, this means that a focus on “college for all”—or at least “college for most”—may make sense in big, creative-class cities. It really is hard to make a decent living in blue America’s urban enclaves without significant higher education. But it’s less determinative in small towns and rural America, where two-year degrees and industry credentials go further than they do in large cities. High schools in red America would be smart to make high-quality career and technical education a much bigger part of their offerings. They can prepare students for the plentiful job opportunities in their communities that don’t require a four-year degree.

Whether these are the necessary policy implications is certainly open for debate, but it seems clear that the increase in income inequality in major cities is a phenomenon that matters, and policymakers should consider how existing policies exacerbate this trend.

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