Airbus Reports Abysmal Earnings, Russian Mafia Busted For Smuggling Ventilators: Live Updates

Airbus Reports Abysmal Earnings, Russian Mafia Busted For Smuggling Ventilators: Live Updates

Summary:

  • LA becomes first US city to offer county-wide testing
  • Sri Lanka reimposes lockdown measures
  • Italy retakes mantle of second-deadliest outbreak in Europe from UK
  • South Korea says ‘zero’ cases of infection stemming from April 15 election
  • Airbus reports massive loss, signals distress
  • New data suggests 1 in 6 US nursing homes suffered COVID-19 clusters
  • 500k coronavirus tests obtained by Maryland from SK haven’t yet been used
  • NYT hammers Brazil’s Bolsonaro for denying outbreak
  • UN warns about virus spreading in Syria, Yemen
  • Eurozone GDP contracts 3.8%
  • UK NHS allows hospitals to remove minority workers off the front lines

*         *         *

German public health officials announced yesterday that Germany’s infection rate had ticked higher over last week since the German government started allowing some shops to reopen, raising the possibility that Germany – Europe’s undisputed leader in tamping down the outbreak – might need to reimpose the lifted lockdown measures.

Meanwhile, in Japan, local press reported yesterday that PM Shinzo Abe would extend his nationwide ‘state of emergency’ order for a month as the health officials discover more evidence that the virus has deeply penetrated Japanese society, despite jokes about Japanese culture, which isn’t big on inter-personal contact, is itself a form of social distancing.

But on Thursday morning, tiny Sri Lanka reimposed its 24-hour lockdown after officials detected a jump in infections.

After briefly taking the No. 2 spot from Italy yesterday, the UK is once again on track to clinch the mantle of “second-most deadly outbreak in Europe” following the latest revision to the UK death toll, announced yesterday, which added thousands of home deaths to the official tally.

Looking ahead on Thursday, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has moved above 3.1 million, while the number of deaths is nearing 210k.

As far as the curve is concerned, both the pace of new deaths…

…and new cases…

Source: FT

…has begun to slow across the US and Europe.

With the number of domestically transmitted infections down to virtually zero, South Korean officials revealed Thursday morning that the country’s April 15 elections had resulted in no new coronavirus infections. And now that two weeks – the typical incubation period – have passed since since the vote, it’s become clear that none of the 29 million Koreans who cast ballots had been infected.

In the US, a new report has confirmed what many experts had suspected: the number of publicly reported coronavirus cases in US nursing homes has soared.

More than 1 in 6 facilities nationwide has detected infections among residents or staff, according to new data released by states such as Michigan, Maryland, Kentucky and South Carolina.

On Wednesday evening, LA Mayor Eric Garcetti said all Los Angeles County residents will be able to obtain free coronavirus testing, even if they are not displaying symptoms, as LA becomes the first city to offer county-wide testing.

As the battle to reopen America rages, a local Louisiana newspaper has uncovered a “secret plot” being organized by Republican state legislators to overturn Gov. John Bel Edwards’ decision to extend his state’s emergency order until May 15. Louisiana has been one of the hardest-hit states in the country, with 593 confirmed cases and 39 deaths for every 100,000 people, while also being ground-zero for the outbreak in the federal prison system that has killed dozens of prisoners already, including a female prisoner who gave birth by C-section.

A group of Republican legislators in Louisiana is quietly working to overturn the Democratic governor’s stay-at-home order, the Advocate newspaper reported.

Emails obtained by the Advocate revealed a plan to invoke an obscure provision that would allow a majority in either chamber of the Republican-controlled state to repeal Edwards’ public-health emergency. Edwards’ handling of the outbreak in his state has been widely praised, including by President Trump. But the devastating hit to the state’s economy, which relies heavily on tourism, have put hundreds of thousands of jobs and businesses in the state at risk.

After reporting dismal Q1 earnings on Wednesday, the CEO of European aerospace giant Airbus – the “Jewel of the European economy” as the NYT called it – warned “we are now in the midst of the gravest crisis the aerospace industry has ever known.”

The company reported a net loss of 481 million euros ($520 million) for Q1, a dramatic reversal from last year. In that period, it could not deliver 60 planes, partly because airlines are seeking to put off payment.

Following yesterday’s historic contraction in US Q1 GDP, the EU followed suit on Thursday and reported its sharpest economic reversal since pan-European record keeping began in 1995.

Eurostat data showed a “seasonally-adjusted” contraction of 3.8% for eurozone countries, and a 3.5% contraction for all EU member states (including those – like Switzerland and Norway – who don’t use the euro). 

European shares sloughed off the GDP reading, which was widely expected, as investors in Europe and Asia focused on the positive news from a study of remdesivir.

Early in April, UN workers raised the alarm about an outbreak in war-torn Syria as the coronavirus swept across the Middle East. Now, the UN is ringing the alarm once again, warning that the virus could be spreading more or less undetected across war-torn Yemen and Syria. Specifically, a new cluster has been discovered in Yemen, adding to the country’s already sizable array of problems.

We’d like to reminder our American readers that while governors have largely led their states through the outbreak, there have been several notable instances of grandstanding and perhaps undeserved PR spin. One such example arrived on Thursday as the Washington Post reported that the ~500,000 coronavirus tests obtained by Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan – something he called an “exponential, game-changing step forward” – have yet to be used.

Finally, in the UK, evidence that the virus is disproportionately deadly for NHS workers from minority backgrounds (1/5th of nurses and half of doctors in London are from minority backgrounds) has led it to allow hospitals to move minority workers off the front line to try and tamp down the “disproportionate” deaths among them.

Minorities make up nearly 3/4ths of the health care workers known to have died from the virus.

As Brazil develops into the world’s newest viral “hot spot”, the NYT bashed Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for his continued refusal to acknowledge the crisis: Nearly 500 Covid-19 deaths were reported in Brazil on Tuesday, the highest single-day death toll yet. When asked about the milestone, President Jair Bolsonaro replied: “So what? I’m sorry. What do you want me to do?”

Bolsonaro’s refusal to acknowledge the outbreak’s severity has left Brazil with one of the lowest testing rates in the world. But fears that the outbreak is far more widespread than official numbers suggest haven’t translated to the images of brutality and chaos seen in Wuhan earlier this year.

However, some hospitals have begun reporting familiar scenes of patients crammed into hallways, as the world waits to see if the outbreak will overwhelm Brazil’s health-care system.

We’ve been closely following the outbreak in Russia in recent days as the confirmed case total has soared, alongside a jump in deaths. And as the outbreak worsens, Russian criminal gangs are increasingly trafficking in vital medical equipment. Russian police on Thursday exchanged gunfire with members of a mafia crew suspected of trafficking in illicit ventilators during a raid in a suburb of Moscow.

The interior ministry told Dow Jones that seven people had been detained, and five placed under house arrest, for allegedly selling the “unregistered” ventilators in the Moscow suburb of Gzhel.

A Russian digital media website reported that eight suspected gangsters had been arrested while trying to sell 100 ventilators for 70 million rubles (about $96,000). President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned criminals against exploiting the outbreak for profits.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 07:47

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2zKRtN1 Tyler Durden

ECB Preview: Don’t Expect Much

ECB Preview: Don’t Expect Much

Just like the Fed yesterday, don’t expect much from today’s ECB meeting. According to Saxobank’s Christopher Dembik, President Lagarde’s main goal today will be to explain what her strategy is and how she sees the shape of the recovery. There is no urgent need to beef up asset purchases yet.

Summary:

  • ECB policy announcement due Thursday 30th April; rate decision at 1245BST/745ET, press conference 1330BST/ 0830ET
  • Rates set to be left unchanged, tweaks to the PEPP could be on the cards
  • President Lagarde likely to stress the Governing Council’s willingness to “do whatever it takes” in the absence of any other policy adjustments

ECB Cheat Sheet courtesy of ING economics:

Context: If we omit Lagarde’s mistake on the ECB’s willingness to close spreads, the central bank has done a good job to address the financial and economic issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak.  Since the first week of March, the ECB has implemented more favorable terms for the already planned TLTRO III with a rate up to -0.75% and it has considerably expanded asset purchases. Including the new PEPP of about €750bn, previous measures and the relaunch of QE by Lagarde’s predecessor in 2019, the total asset purchases are expected to reach around €1tr in 2020. The ECB also showed high degree of flexibility in the design and the implementation of its several virus-fighting packages. The 33% limit does not apply under the PEPP and the ECB can purchase debt across all the yield curve, including Greek debt under waiver. In its most recent move, the ECB also acted to shield Italy from rating downgrade by accepting some junk-rated debt as collateral for loans to banks.

* * *

Today’s meeting is not expected to yield much in the way of policy action. Basically, Lagarde’s challenge is to explain in the most simple manner the ECB’s strategy and how she sees the shape of the recovery – especially following the release of France’s horrific Q1 GDP figure at minus 5.8%. Like Fed Chairman Powell yesterday, Lagarde is likely to make it clear that she is not in the V-shape recovery camp.  She should also repeat over and over her readiness to act appropriately to tackle any market tensions, so much so she may feel like a broken record.

Expectations are very high that Lagarde stresses the door is open to new measures, likely announced in June. The ECB can afford to wait as the emergency work has been masterfully done. However, it seems inevitable that it will have to increase in the near term the scale and the scope of the PEPP in order to deal with the increase in gross issuance in 2020, notably in the periphery. Based on our calculations, eurozone government need to roll over almost €2tr in debt and finance new net issuance of about €1.5tr this year. The ECB’s commitment to buy only around €1tr is understandably insufficient. We expect that it will need to increase total asset purchases by at least 500bn this year to absorb coronavirus debts.

If new market tensions should materialize, the ECB is not running out of ammunition. Other innovations are possible, including a further loosening of lending benchmark which currently stands at minus 0.75%, a shift into junk bonds with the extension of the Greek waiver to other eurozone countries or even the inclusion of mortgage loans in the pool.

Courtesy of RanSquawk, here are the key expectations from today’s meeting:

OVERVIEW: The ECB is expected to stand pat on rates this week with focus instead likely to fall on the Bank’s balance sheet and how it views monetary and fiscal actions taken thus far. On the balance sheet, consensus leans in favor of the GC needing to expand the current scope of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). Views are mixed on whether such an adjustment will be made this week or Lagarde will invoke strong rhetoric on the Bank’s preparedness to do more and defer the decision until June when lockdown measures have been eased across the Eurozone. As has been a common theme throughout Lagarde’s tenure, the President will likely use the press conference as a forum to call for further support from fiscal authorities.

PRIOR MEETING: In March, the ECB refrained from succumbing to market pricing and maintained the deposit rate at -0.5%. Instead, it tweaked existing measures, making the terms of the current TLTRO-III programme more favourable, with the rate on these operations (which run until June 2021) to be 25bps below the main refi rate, and in some cases, 25bps below the deposit rate. Further, it also unveiled a new series of LTROs which will ‘bridge the gap’ until the TLTRO-III operations resume in June. Additionally, the Governing Council also opted to expand the size of its Asset Purchase Programme by EUR 120bln until the end of the year. Note, the ECB maintained its forward guidance on rates and reinvestments.

FOLLOW UP MEASURES: On March 18th, the Bank unveiled a EUR 750bln PEPP in which purchases will be conducted until the end of 2020, whilst more recently, the Governing Council unveiled a package of temporary collateral easing measures and accepted the use of Greek government bonds (Apr 7th). Furthermore, on April 22nd, the ECB took steps to mitigate the impact of potential debt rating downgrades on collateral availability.

FISCAL EFFORTS: Monetary authorities have not been alone in their efforts to support the Eurozone economy with many national governments manufacturing domestic fiscal packages and Eurozone Finance Ministers agreeing to increase availability  of the ESM’s Credit Line, create a short-time work scheme and provide further support via the European Investment Bank. However, EU27 leaders are yet to sign off on plans for a bloc-wide long-term recovery plan and the debate about joint debt mutualisation continues to lay bare the divisions across the continent. The ECB’s view on fiscal efforts will likely be a key line of enquiry during the Q&A, on which, RBC believes that with details still pending, it is likely to be too early to draw any firm conclusions on progress. However, despite work still needing to be done, the Canadian bank takes a relatively optimistic view on proceedings and expects Lagarde to have a positive interpretation of efforts thus far.

RECENT DATA: The traditional backward-looking data points have largely been dismissed as “stale” by the market with participants instead favoring more timelier indicators. Last week saw the latest batch of PMI readings which saw the EZ-wide composite metric slip to an eye-watering reading of 13.5 (prev. 29.7); manufacturing 33.6 (prev. 44.5) and services 11.7 (prev. 26.4). Following the release, IHS Markit noted that the reading would be indicative of the Eurozone economy contracting at a quarterly rate of around 7.5%. ABN AMRO provided a scenario analysis framework in which they estimate that 1) if existing lockdowns continue until the end of April (base case) 2020 GDP would contract by 4.5%. 2) if existing lockdowns continue until the end of May (negative case) 2020 GDP would contract by 8%. 3) if existing lockdowns continue until the end of April but consumer behavior normalizes at a quicker pace (positive case), the real economy could recover sharply but would benefit less in 2021 as stimulus efforts will be less aggressive. On the inflation front, given the fallout from COVID-19 on consumer spending and the nosedive in oil prices, the outlook for price pressures in the Eurozone is relatively bleak with the 5y5y inflation expectations gauge sub-1%. ABN AMRO notes that “HICP inflation will drop in the coming months and will probably register a couple of negative numbers on a year-over-year basis during Q2 of this year”. However, assuming a recovery in oil prices later in 2020, “headline inflation should bounce back sharply towards 2% by mid-2021”.

RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: Since the prior meeting, asides from policymakers trying to airbrush President Lagarde’s comment about it not being the ECB’s job “to close spreads”, rhetoric from the Bank has largely centered around trying to reassure markets in the face of the ongoing crisis. In recent remarks, governor Lagarde (Apr 16th) stated that the ECB is “fully prepared to increase the size of its asset purchase programmes and adjust their composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed. It will explore all options and all contingencies to support the economy”. Even some of the more traditionally hawkish members appear to be on board with such a stance with Dutch central banker Knot noting that adjustments to the PEPP cannot be excluded and the Bank will not allow spreads to widen too much. Germany’s Schnabel also echoed this sentiment and made the point that the Bank “‘needs to avoid fragmentation that may hamper the smooth transmission of our monetary policy’, again, a potential hat-tip to the perils of widening spreads. However, looking beyond the crisis, her domestic colleague Weidmann has cautioned that at some stage, focus must return to lowering debt.

RATES: From a rates perspective, consensus overwhelmingly looks for the deposit rate to be held at -0.5%, with the decision not to lower rates in March symbolic of scepticism over the efficacy of delving further into negative territory. UBS expects the ECB to stand pat on rates until the end of their forecast horizon (end-2021). The Swiss bank also suggests that as liquidity in the Eurozone rises, policymakers could opt to tweak the specifics of its tiered system (adjust the multiplier); such a move could be made this week or the June 4th meeting.

BALANCE SHEET: Instead, focus could fall on the ECB’s balance sheet with the current EUR 750bln size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) not deemed as sufficient to weather the course of the crisis given the surge in issuance by member states. Capital Economics suggests that at the current pace of purchases, PEPP would run out by October, however, since the ECB intends to run purchases until the end of the year, a reduction in the pace of buying would be required, something which could prove detrimental to the Eurozone economy and hinder the Bank’s ability to prevent spreads from widening further (despite the communication mishap from Lagarde in March). As such, Capital Economics suggests the Governing Council could opt to increase the size of its PEPP with an eventual size of over EUR 2trl. Alternatively, rather than setting a specific size for its PEPP, it could engage in purchasing bonds to cap yields at a desired level. Note, 1/4 economists in a recent newswire survey suggested that an announcement could be made this week, with expectations mounting over a potential EUR 500bln addition. Conversely, analysts at ING believe, that “If old patterns hold, the June meeting with a fresh round of economic projections, would be the right moment to announce such an increase”

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT: Given the slightly dated nature of some of the economic indicators available, participants will likely take guidance from the GC’s current qualitative assessment of the Eurozone economy; note, no staff economic projections will be presented at this meeting. Ultimately, the Bank’s assessment of the Eurozone economy is likely to be particularly downbeat with March’s press conference already noting that “risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook are clearly on the downside” (this was during the early stages of the crisis), whilst last week it was reported that President Lagarde believes that Eurozone GDP could fall by as much as 15% this year. However, Lagarde will need to be careful in conveying the extent of the crisis, as too damming an assessment in the face of a lack of action this time around could stoke fears that policymakers are running out of ammo. Concerns that could also be exacerbated by any pessimistic language surrounding the Bank’s ability to hit its inflation goal; a target that has become even more opaque given the delays to the upcoming strategic review. As a guide, the ECB currently classifies measures of underlying inflation as “generally muted”.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 07:31

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/35gYEYW Tyler Durden

Virus Lockdowns Smash German Jobs, Lead To Record Drop In Eurozone Economy

Virus Lockdowns Smash German Jobs, Lead To Record Drop In Eurozone Economy

German unemployment soared in April, while the Eurozone economy contracts the quickest on record as coronavirus lockdowns inflict severe economic damage across the continent. 

Germany, the world’s fourth-largest economy and Europe’s largest, experienced a sharp increase in the number of people out of work in April, rising by 373,000 to 2.639 million, the Federal Labor Office reported on Thursday (April 30). The forecast among 20 economists was between 10,000 and 350,000, which over exceeded their expectations. The result was a bump higher in the unemployment rate to 5.8% from 5.0% in March, reported Reuters.

h/t Reuters’ Riham Alkousaa

Reuters’ Riham Alkousaa tweeted, “So 10.1 mln people on short-time work in Germany, 373,000 more unemployed in April and the unemployment rate is now 5.8% from previous 5.0% The virus is taking its toll on the German job market.” 

Data from the Federal Labor Office also showed a plunge in retail sales of 5.6% in March, which was a slightly smaller dip than what analysts were predicting around -7.3%. Retail sales have been widely depressed in the country since COVID-19 cases and deaths started to appear as early as February. The lockdowns, which began in mid-March, have taken a drastic economic toll on households as the economy grinds to a halt. Government data shows higher retail sales at supermarkets that offset some of the losses elsewhere. 

The German economy is expected to contract 6.3% this year as a recession could trough in the second quarter and surge after lockdowns are lifted. Some businesses reopened last week, but threats of a second coronavirus wave have left much of the economy in economic paralysis. 

For the continent, well, lockdowns have led to the fastest rate of economic decline on record. Eurozone GDP for the first quarter fell by 3.8% compared with the previous quarter. This is the most significant collapse in economic growth since the data series began in 1995.

Jessica Hinds, a European economist at Capital Economics, suggests the plunge in economic activity is not over. She said the first quarter “will pale in comparison with the complete collapse that will surely be recorded in Q2.” Meanwhile, stocks around the world have been rallying as if the crisis is over, even though the economic damage is only starting to be realized.  


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 07:21

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Today in Supreme Court History: April 30, 1789

4/30/1789: President Washington’s inauguration. He would appoint eleven members to the Supreme Court: Chief Justices Jay, Rutledge, and Ellsworth, and Justices Wilson, Blair, Cushing, Rutledge, Iredell, Johnson, Paterson, and Chase.

President Washington’s Appointees

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Today in Supreme Court History: April 30, 1789

4/30/1789: President Washington’s inauguration. He would appoint eleven members to the Supreme Court: Chief Justices Jay, Rutledge, and Ellsworth, and Justices Wilson, Blair, Cushing, Rutledge, Iredell, Johnson, Paterson, and Chase.

President Washington’s Appointees

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LOKIN-20: UK Quarantine Sparks Increasing Health Concerns

LOKIN-20: UK Quarantine Sparks Increasing Health Concerns

Authored by Iain Davis via Off-Guardian.org,

A new public health crisis, very recently identified as LOKIN-20, is raising increasing health concerns in the UK. In their response to a respiratory illness called COVID-19 (C19) the UK State are among those who have responded by locking up their populations and destroying their own national economy. This appears to be causing LOKIN-20.

The most recent statistics from UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) raise significant concerns about health impact of the lockdown regimes favoured by some, but not all, governments. All in response to a disease which researchers at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University estimate to have an infection fatality rate (IFR) of between 0.1% and 0.36%. Similar to seasonal flu.

Of course, a syndrome called LOKIN-20 hasn’t been identified as a cause of death. However, in light of the current data, this post asks if it should.

LOKIN-20 AND THE LACK OF SCIENTIFIC JUSTIFICATION

Both Public Health England (PHE) and the Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) were satisfied that COVID-19 (C19) presented a “low risk” of mortality and downgraded it from the status of a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) on March 19th. The ACDP board members include Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College. Presumably Prof. Ferguson was among the dissenting voices on the ACDP board as he completely ignored the majority opinion of his scientific colleagues.

In an interview on 13th February, widely reported by the mainstream media (MSM), he stated his predictive models were “not absurd.” 

He said that infection rates of 60% of the population with a 1% mortality rate were possible. Standing by his prediction of 400,000 C19 deaths in the UK. The Imperial College computer model report was released to the public on 16th March, predicting huge numbers of deaths from C19. By the 19th March Prof. Ferguson must have known a majority of his peers disagreed with him.

When it comes to wildly inaccurate predictions Prof. Ferguson’s work at Imperial College has a long and distinguished history. In 2002, he said that 50,000 people in the UK would die from “mad cow disease”, to date less than 200 have passed away; he predicted 200 million global deaths from the H5N1 bird flu. Currently it is a suspected factor in the deaths of 455 people world wide; in 2009 he told the UK Government that 65,000 could die from swine flu in the UK and worked with the World Health Organisation to predict millions of deaths from the H1N1 global flu pandemic.

Suspected resultant UK deaths from swine flu were estimated to be 457 and the global total showed 18,500 laboratory-confirmed deaths from the H1N1 pandemic. The U.S. Center For Disease Control (CDC) claim there were many more, though their estimate varies between 150,000 and 500,000.

Quite an error margin and still considerably less than Imperial Colleges fantasy. The CDC is heavily funded by flu vaccine manufacturers.

While Prof. Ferguson and his Imperial College colleagues have been consistently wrong they have also been unquestioningly believed by governments and intergovernmental bodies on every occasion. Seemingly without reservation.

Despite the clear evidence to the contrary, policy makers from all political parties have shown tremendous loyalty to Imperial College’s silly data models. In doing so, they have not only ignored the researchers woeful history of failed predictions but have also denied the scientific evidence which usually contradicts them.

In no way can basing policy decisions on Imperial Colleges computer models be considered science led decision making. Quite the opposite.

LOKIN-20 AND LOCKDOWN MADNESS

Farr’s Law is observed with all viral diseases and describes the rate at which a viral infections increases and then declines in a given population. Initially, the virus has practically unlimited hosts and the rate of increasing infection is exponential.

As more people become infected that rate declines. The numbers still increase but the rate of that increase drops sharply. Once the rate starts to decline virologists and epidemiologists can then predict the scale of the outbreak with some confidence.

It indicates that the disease has passed its peak potential and will wane naturally in the coming days and weeks. Regardless of intervention.

Increase in Mortality Analysis by John Hopkin’s University shown by The Financial Times [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Based upon UK statistics released by Worldometer we can see this initial rapidly increasing rate of infection and identify when that rate began to slow down. For the 50 day inclusive period, between the February 25th until April 15th, this changing rate of increase was evident.

That rate peaked on the March 4th and has declined since. Following the drop in this rate on the 4th, with a consistent downward trend to March 16th, the scientists on the ACDP board could predict the trajectory of the disease with some certainty and consequently downgraded C19 due to low mortality rates.

Calculating the daily rate of increase can be done simply by dividing the current day’s total number of cases by the previous days total. For example, on March 3rd there were 51 total cases rising by 36, to reach a total of 87, by March 4th. A ratio rate increase of 0.71.

This was the peak rate of increasing infections in the UK. From this date onward the rate of increase declined markedly, in accordance with Farr’s Law. We can plot these figures to find the changing rate of the increase in cases.

This slowing rate of new infections is also evident when we look at the logarithmic scale of UK Infections rates. This produces the familiar infection rate curve synonymous with Farr’s Law.

UK Case Infection Growth Rate From Worldometer [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

The UK government are among the many who apparently ignored the most basic concepts in virology and chose instead to base their lockdown regime upon the fictitious Imperial College models. All the science indicated that existing measures, encouraging the public to observe basic hygiene and limit interactions with vulnerable people, was working, as C19 followed the normal bell curve of any viral disease in a population.

There was no scientific justification for the lockdown. Nothing about the UK State’s response was “led by the science.”

Nor is there any evidence that lockdown regimes have any positive impact upon infections rates. Comparisons between severe lockdown states and those who opted for less draconian measures reveal no advantage to placing your population under house arrest.

States who chosen not to rip their economies apart appear to have fared much better. Sweden did not deploy a lockdown and yet, according to data from John Hopkin’s University, case rates per million of populations are lower.

Further comparative analysis supports these findings. In terms of limiting infection rates, there is no discernible benefit to lockdown regimes. In fact, Oxford University found a direct correlation between infection rates and the relative severity of lockdown regimes. It suggests the more stringent the lockdown, the higher the infection rate.

This is not unexpected, as numerous epidemiological studies have shown that infection rates for C19 are higher when people are exposed to it for prolonged periods in confined spaces. Locking people up in their homes is probably the worst thing you could do if you wanted to reduce the infections and the duration of the outbreak.

This is well known to the World Health Organisation. In their joint study with Chinese authorities, published in February, the WHO stated that airborne spread wasn’t reported for C19 and was not considered to be a method of transmission.

They found that most infections occurred within families where the chance of infection was as high as 20%. However, the chance of infection in the community was estimated to be between 1-5%.

The WHO also stated that COVID 19 is less virulent than influenza. They say it is spread by droplets and cannot linger in the air. Equally there is little evidence that flu transmission is airborne. The comparison between C19 and influenza is worth considering as we discuss LOKIN 20.

LOKIN-20 LURKS BEHIND THE DATA

About the only consistent element of the narrative we have been given about C19 is that we must believe the death toll is horrendous. This “alarmism” has been spread by State officials and the mainstream media (MSM). It is unmitigated drivel.

Here are some important factors to bear in mind whenever the MSM give you statistics about alleged deaths from C19 in the UK. These factors are unique to C19.

The ONS recording system was changed by the State, but only for C19, from recording only registered deaths to adding in provisional deaths assumed to be from C19. The RT-PCR test for C19 does not appear to be very reliable. Furthermore, the man who won the Nobel Prize for designing it specifically stated that it could not identify a virus. As previously stated, emerging studies indicate a much higher infection and thus much lower mortality rate for C19.

However, in the UK, a positive test is not even required for someone to be deemed to have died from C19. Nor does there need to be any clear evidence of causality for C19 to be declared as the underlying cause of death.

Merely “mentioning” C19 is considered sufficient. Regardless of other, often multiple, comorbidities and infections. In addition, from an age demographic perspective, C19 deaths appear to be indistinguishable from quite normal mortality.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) have reported a consistent rise in mortality between weeks 11 – 15, covering the period 7th March to 10th April 2020 in England and Wales. During that period deaths from all causes (all cause mortality) have steadily climbed and have been above the ONS 5 year average in weeks 14 and 15.

The ONS calculate the mean average from the 5 preceding years completed statistics. This means that any year prior to 2014, many with much higher than average mortality, are not used to calculate the current average.

There is no evidence that this years all cause mortality in England and Wales is in any way unprecedented. In recent history 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2017 have all been years with comparable, if not higher mortality. None were deemed reason to force the population to incarcerate themselves.

The demographics of the UK show a growing but ageing population. Age is the primary corollary for normal mortality and C19 is no different. The ONS expect the 5 year average figure to steadily increase while the population continues to age.

The MSM regularly report C19 suspected deaths among the relatively young. This is to give you the impression that C19 can strike anyone at anytime.

What they consistently fail to mention is that PHE records of ICU admissions for influenza indicate all ages are at risk from the flu. This is not the case with C19. Its risks apparently increase with age.

There was a media frenzy when the ONS released their all cause mortality statistics for Week 15. This showed there were 7,996 deaths over and above the 5 year average. In total 6,213 mentioned C19. Despite the MSM’s attempt to convince you this somehow proves C19 is a modern day plague, a cursory look at the data demonstrates that it is no such thing.

The ONS noted that these were the highest single week mortality figure for England and Wales since 2000. This is true, however the historical data also demonstrates that one week statistical record was exceeded in 2000, 1999 and 1997. Bluntly, not only is there nothing unprecedented about the overall mortality figures, the high one week spike isn’t anything new either.

To further put this into perspective, the population of England and Wales in 2000 was just under 53 million. In 2020 it conservatively stands at more than 60 million. That’s more than a 13% increase in 20 years, with a notable ageing of the population over the same period.

Normalising for population growth alone, irrespective of ageing, if 20,566 died in one week in 2000 then week 15 mortality figures in 2020 are equivalent to 16,109. About 4,450 fewer than in 2000, in relative terms. If we take similar normalisation into account for previous years of high mortality (1995, 1996, 1998, 199) then, as a percentage of population, relative 2020 mortality statistics are well below those years and further below 2017.

As the death rate from C19 reduces in the UK, it is clear that the C19 threat level never warranted the lockdown regime and the collapse of the economy. At the risk of being accused of heresy, it is absolutely possible to state that C19 is like the flu in many respects.

UK Statistics from Worldometer [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

LOKIN-20 SEEN IN THE DATA

As usual, in their week 15 report, the ONS noted what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to inflate the C19 mortality statistics. Of the 6,213 reported C19 deaths, for week 15 in England and Wales, 2,333 also mentioned both influenza and pneumonia. It is impossible to see how these deaths can legitimately be called C19 deaths.

Consequently, all that can be said is that of the 7,996 excess deaths, beyond the 5-year average, 3880 deaths mentioned C19 on its own, though we know from previous releases that more than 90% of those had at least one other serious comorbidity. The remaining 4116 deaths were also attributable to at least one other infection and additional comorbidities.

The confusion about causes of death has been highlighted by the Royal College of Pathologists who have called for a systemic review. The Health Service Journal reported that there was “uncertainty” about reported C19 deaths and questions remained about how many may have died as a “knock on” consequence of the lockdown.

The reasons for scepticism becomes clearer when we look at comparative death in the first 15 weeks of 2020. This shows considerably higher numbers of deaths from respiratory infections other than C19 in England and Wales.

When we also consider that attribution of C19 deaths are uniquely vague, and that a considerable proportion may well be attributable to influenza or other respiratory infections, the MSM’s insistence that C19 is the only story doesn’t stack up. Something else is happening too.

ONS reported all cause mortality 2020 to date [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Frankly, we have no idea how many people have actually died from C19. Nor does the UK State.

Speaking on the 18th March the UK’s Chief Scientific Officer, former GlaxoSmithKline head of research and development, Sir Patrick Valance, clarified the situation for the British people. He stated:

It is worth remembering again that the ONS rates are people who’ve got COVID on their death certificates. It doesn’t mean they were necessarily infected because many of them haven’t been tested. So we just need to understand the difference.”

The difference appears to be that the C19 is the first disease in history from which you can officially die without any firm evidence that you actually had it.

The symptoms of C19 are very hard to distinguish from symptoms of other respiratory infections, such as influenza and the common cold. Diagnoses from symptoms alone seems even more unreliable than the RT-PCR test. Yet the ONS confirmed this is how C19 can be identified as a cause of death:

A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required.”

This is a consequence of the State’s advice to doctors which informs them:

if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID 19 infection….it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death.”

As recorded C19 mortality shows a decline, once again, the state is changing the way statistics are recorded. It has now asked the Care Quality Commission (CQC) to record more suspected cases from social care settings. Speaking on the April 14th a CQC spokesperson reportedly said:

From this week, the death notifications we collect from providers will allow them to report whether the death was of a person with suspected or confirmed Covid-19.”

If the system for recording hospital C19 deaths is questionable the one suggested by the CQC for care homes is downright bizarre. At the request of the State the CQC have asked non medically trained care home providers to report, what they suspect, are C19 cases. These figures will then be added to the claimed C19 mortality figures.

The lack of testing in care settings suggest the CQC will be adding far more suspected cases to the ONS statistics than confirmed. Care homes, other than nursing homes, do not typically retain medically trained staff. The vast majority of those who suspect C19 from care homes won’t be basing their suspicions on qualified medical opinions.

The claimed C19 mortality figures are so disparate they have become practically worthless from a statistical perspective. Even if we accept all reported C19 deaths resulted from it, which is a very long stretch, clearly something else is also pushing up excess mortality in England and Wales.

Over the two week period of weeks 14 and 15, of the 14,078 additional deaths, 8189 people lost their lives due to something other than just C19. We don’t yet know what other factors may be playing a part in the increase. All we can say is that excess mortality was unusually high and, at most, plausibly claimed C19 deaths accounted for less than 42% of those deaths.

So what other changes may have impacted mortality this year? One in particular stands out. The lockdown itself.

Are we starting to see the consequences? Could we call this LOKIN-20?

The evidence strongly suggests that possibility.

LOKIN-20 DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTS THE MOST VULNERABLE

LOKIN-20 appears to be the increased health risk caused by the lockdown regime. Those most at risk from LOKIN-20 are the same people who are at highest risk from C19. This additional “wave” of mortality, as a direct consequence of the lockdown, has recently been highlighted by NHS data analysts Edge Health.

Based upon ONS weekly figures, their comparative analysis of excess mortality and A&E attendance highlighted the significant impact of LOKIN-20. Speaking of an initial second and then third wave of mortality, from the impact of the lockdown, the co-founder of Edge Health George Batchelor said:

“If projected forwards, these numbers get so large it is hard to relate to them on a personal level. Unlike the current peaks, this third wave may be spread out over a longer period of time. But make no mistake this could be could be a very deadly wave.”

Edge Health Analysis [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Those who require home care, vulnerable adults in care settings and older people in care homes, have been all but abandoned by the State. This is a direct result of its counterproductive lockdown regime. Dying from systemic neglect appears to be a symptom of LOKIN-20.

During the alleged response to the C19 pandemic you might imagine the State would streamline vulnerable people’s access to potentially lifesaving medical interventions. However, it has done the precise opposite.

Spreading disinformation, the MSM reported that there were  7,500 C19 deaths in care homes in weeks 14 and 15. This was fake news.

Of the 7,500 excess care home deaths only 1,500 were attributed to C19. Analysis by the Health Service Journal (HSJ) found that 80% of these people probably died from something else.

They identified 6000 people, without diagnosed C19, who had died in care or at home. Were it not for the lockdown these people would otherwise have gone to hospital.

The HSJ assumed these people would have died anyway, and they may well be right. But who knows how many would still be with us had they received the hospital care they needed.

This appears to be just one of the health consequences of the States lockdown regime. It seems to be precipitating vulnerable people’s deaths in a variety of ways.

During the same period the NHS issued guidance which stated care home residents should not be conveyed to hospital. At the same time ambulance response times increased dramatically. Being unable to get emergency medical support when you need it is another apparent LOKIN-20 symptom.

Rather than more closely monitoring care homes and isolating vulnerable people from infection, the State decided not to bother. The care industry has been calling for widespread testing and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) since the start of the outbreak. So far neither the testing nor the PPE has materialised.

There is currently considerable capacity within the NHS for the people dying in care homes to be treated in hospital. The State continues to build Nightingale Hospitals across the country, most of which are completely empty . While we are misled into believing people are dying in their many thousands in care homes from C19, it appears most are dying from a lack of treatment from every condition other than C19.

Instead of providing medical treatment there are widespread reports of residents having “do not attempt resuscitation” (DNAR) notices attached to their care plans by visiting NHS practitioners. Other more vulnerable adults, such as those with learning difficulties, who frequently have additional comorbidities, are also effectively being told to drop dead.

The UK’s home care industry, providing care to older people living in their own homes, warns that many providers are unable to cope with the additional costs imposed upon them by the lockdown regime.

Raina Summerson, the chief executive of one of England’s largest home care provider Agincare said:

“With a lack of funding and sky-high costs of PPE, there will be providers who go bust….Overnight, local authorities will have the responsibility of picking up care for bankrupt providers but will not have resources to do so. It could well mean people left without care and, in the worst-case scenarios, falling through the cracks and dying alone at home.”

The UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock recently made the magnanimous gesture of allowing families to see their loved ones who were dying of C19 in care homes. Whether that offer extends to the families of the majority who are seemingly dying from a lack of medical treatment isn’t clear.

Meanwhile, under his watch, either by design or rank ineptitude, the UK State has effectively created what appears to be a euthanasia program. His platitudes are grotesque.

LOKIN-20 IS EVERYWHERE

Accident and Emergency attendance has dropped to a record low while the percentage of admissions following attendance have risen to a record high. This means people are presenting to A&E for suspected C19 but little else. However, given the dramatic increase in ambulance response times, perhaps many are simply not making it to A&E alive.

Dr Katherine Henderson, the President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, stated:

We are concerned that this drop in attendance may mean that people with serious health problems are avoiding going to their emergency department for fear of getting coronavirus….Even before Covid-19, we knew that patients were getting sicker – people are living longer and acquiring more health problems……The most important thing the public can do at the moment is to stay indoors and follow the government’s advice…..But do seek medical help if you need it – don’t stay at home with a heart attack out of fear.”

Dr Katherine Henderson

I think we can all agree that the State and the MSM have ramped up fear of C19 to quite extraordinary levels. As we have discussed, the medical and scientific justification for this is largely absent. The propaganda seems primarily designed to justify the lockdown regime.

It is absurd for the State and senior health professionals to now express concern that people aren’t going to hospital when they need to. Of course they aren’t.

To claim this was unforeseen is ridiculous. The whole UK propaganda narrative has urged people both to be terrified of a flu-like illness and stay away from health services to “protect the NHS.” The first annual increase in coronary heart disease mortality in the UK, following nearly two decades of steady reductions in the UK, was noted last year, before LOKIN-20 began.

The former president of the Society for Acute Medicine Dr Nick Scriven stated:

“The biggest fear is people sitting at home ill and not attending A&E […] people feeling sick at home or having a heart attack and not coming to hospital as they are frightened…We have seen a few sick young people just sitting at home for five or six days getting worse and worse”.

The president of the British Cardiovascular Society Simon Ray stated:

“It seems there has been a uniform reduction in hospital attendances for heart attacks…..it’s around 40% down in terms of callouts for emergency treatment for heart attacks….There also seems to be substantial reduction in referrals in for acute coronary syndrome….A number of units have also reported people presenting late with complications due to having a heart attack that we don’t normally see. The concern is people sitting out symptoms rather than calling help.”

It is clear, people with acute need for cardiovascular treatment are not presenting to hospital as they otherwise would. Fear driven reluctance to access health services, when they are most needed, appears to be another symptom of LOKIN-20.

Around 170,000 people die every year from cardiovascular disease in the UK. A 40% reduction in callouts present a potential health crisis which dwarfs any perceived risk from C19.

This is entirely due to the lockdown. Part of what we might call the LOKIN-20 condition.

There is no “surge” in C19 patients and there are more empty hospital beds than ever before. Yet the risk to cancer patients from withheld treatment has increased significantly during the same period. Thanks to LOKIN-20.

This prompted Gordon Wishart, Professor of Cancer Surgery at Anglia Ruskin School of Medicine, to write to State officials urging the rapid reestablishment of access to screening and treatment for cancer patients. He stated:

We pushed the panic button and there was a knee-jerk reaction when it was thought there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths from Covid […] However, in the event it seems we are at or near the peak and that capacity has not been needed […] We have the worst cancer survival rates compared with many of our European neighbours […] We are not in a position to cope with any increased demand at the end of lockdown.”

A leading heart surgeon, Professor Stephen Westaby, said:

…We could see thousands of deaths from heart disease and cancer over the next six months. Their families will never forget this. Neither China nor Italy stopped treating these conditions despite the chaos there earlier this year. It’s bizarre.”

How many of the additional deaths we are seeing now are caused by LOKIN-20?

Early indications from the ONS suggest the lockdown regime is having a considerable additional impact upon the nation’s health.  Approximately 84% of people surveyed stated they were worried about C19. Nearly half reported an increase in anxiety levels.

ONS Statistics on LOKIN-20 Impact Upon Mental Health In The UK [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Anxiety increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and a range of other health conditions. Studies have shown a clear link between increased levels of anxiety and depression in children and adolescents. LOKIN-20 is seemingly creating a mental health crisis too.

Depression often has a lifelong impact and substance misuse, domestic abuse, low income and other comorbidities are all frequent consequences. The head of the department of psychiatry at the University of Cambridge Professor Ed Bullmore reported:

The pandemic is clearly having a major social and psychological impact on the whole population, increasing unemployment, separating families and various other changes in the way that we live that we know are generally major psychological risk factors for anxiety, depression and self-harm.”

However, it is not the pandemic that is “increasing unemployment” and “separating families” but rather the baseless lockdown regime of the State.

The kind of economic devastation caused by the lockdown regime, unlike C19, is genuinely unprecedented. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) predict a 35% drop in the UK’s GDP with an additional 2 million job losses. For some reason they envisage the UK economy will instantly recover from this hammer blow. Others are far less confident.

The Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) predict that nearly one quarter of UK jobs (more than 6.5 million) will be lost thanks to the lockdown. Failing to see the “bounce back” predicted by the OBR they state:

Our baseline scenario predicts an overall contraction in GDP and employment of around 20%.”

ISER predictions [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Whether the OBR or the ISER predictions are accurate it is obvious that the economic and social impacts of the lockdown regime will be catastrophic. Social deprivations and poverty, already on the rise before the alleged C19 pandemic, are set to soar. The link between economic deprivation and mortality is not in doubt.

UK Government Life Expectancy Statistics [CLICK TO ENLARGE]

Between 2001 and 2016 economic and social deprivation in England consistently accounted for a staggering 9.3 year average reduced life expectancy for males and, by 2016, shortened women’s lives by 7.4 years. Millions of lives will be cut short by LOKIN-20.

It is a very sad reality to acknowledge that the loss of life from COVID-19 is as nothing by comparison. LOKIN-20 won’t end in a few weeks. It will continue for years to come. The longer the State persists with its destructive lockdown regime the worse will be the consequences of LOKIN-20.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 06:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2xpMIrs Tyler Durden

Beef Prices Soar To Record High As Meatpacking Plants Shutter

Beef Prices Soar To Record High As Meatpacking Plants Shutter

Wholesale American beef prices jumped 6% to a record high of $330.82 per 100 pounds, a 62% increase from the lows in February, according to Bloomberg, citing new USDA data.

The surge in beef prices comes at a time when the nation’s food supply chain network has been severely damaged by meatpacking plants going offline due to virus-related shutdowns and worker shortage. Bloomberg highlights the latest plant closures in the map below:

Soaring food inflation came one day after President Trump said he would be issuing an executive order  to address meat shortages.

“Because of the virus, meat slaughtering is 40% below where it needs to be to handle all of the animals coming to market, said Arlan Suderman,” chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone.

“Processing plants were generally in favor of the executive order that would give them liability cover when reopening,” Suderman said. “Yet, the order still does not solve the problem of employee absenteeism.” At least 20 workers in meat and food processing have died and 5,000 have tested positive or forced to self-quarantine due to coronavirus, according to the United Food and Commercial Workers International union.

Just days ago, Tyson Foods warned in a full-page ad in the New York Times on Sunday that the “food supply chain is breaking.”

And with tens of millions of Americans out of work, a crashed economy that is plunging into depression, and rapid food inflation — this could all suggest that the evolution of the virus crisis is not just an economic crisis but also social instabilities are ahead.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 06:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3aL5dE9 Tyler Durden

The Future of FOSTA May Be Frivolous Lawsuits 

Passed in 2018, the Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act—or FOSTA, for short—made it a federal crime to host web content that “promotes” or “facilitates” prostitution.

In the nearly two years since FOSTA became law, neither federal nor state prosecutors have used it. But that doesn’t mean it’s simply gathering dust. Web companies are now experiencing the first wave of civil lawsuits made possible by the law.

Companies anticipated that FOSTA would be used more broadly than its proponents claimed. After Congress passed the legislation with bipartisan support, the classified-ad platform Craigslist quickly axed its entire personals section, including categories on the site that were essentially used the same way as dating apps.

It was not the only site to begin limiting legal content related to relationships and sex. And even though it acted quickly, Craigslist is now the target of one of the first FOSTA-based civil lawsuit efforts, with plaintiffs in California and Washington state filing suit against the company.

Both cases against Craigslist rely on a “radical theory of liability,” wrote University of Notre Dame Law Professor Alex Yelderman in a January blog post. The suits allege that Craigslist’s “erotic services section” was known across the U.S. “as a place to easily locate victims”; that Craigslist knew bad actors had used their site; and that this knowledge “amounted to a venture with sex traffickers to efficiently market victims.”

The suits do not claim Craigslist had specific knowledge of the plaintiff (Jane Doe), the person who harmed her, or which ads were used for sex trafficking rather than consensual erotic encounters. The suit simply claims that Craigslist had previously been put “on notice of the human sex trafficking” committed through the site, and was thus responsible for any trafficking that happened.

Classified-ad sites—like social media platforms, blog publishers, email newsletter providers, dating apps, and publications with online comments sections—are conduits for third-party, user-generated content. Prior to FOSTA’s passage, judges routinely dismissed suits against Craigslist, Backpage, Facebook, and other web hosts accused of sex trafficking, since a federal law on the books bars civil cases and state charges merely for being conduits of third-party speech. But FOSTA changed the rules for speech that concerns sex, opening the floodgates to individual lawsuits against web hosts such as Craigslist. And because the definition of “sex trafficking” can be so blurry and the crime so hard to prove, the broad language in the law leaves a lot of room for lawyers to treat FOSTA like a get-rich-quick-off-Big-Tech scheme.

Another case in federal court this year targets Mailchimp, an email automation and marketing service. Anyone can sign up for an account and use Mailchimp tools to create and send mass emails. One company that did so was YesBackpage, an adult-advertising platform launched after U.S. authorities shut down Backpage, a website that allowed adult services ads.

Plaintiff lawyers in the Mailchimp case say that by letting YesBackpage use its software, Mailchimp was complicit in, and thus financially liable for, any crimes brokered through YesBackpage’s user-generated content. “Mailchimp’s marketing relationship with YesBackpage makes it responsible for its natural consequences—the sex trafficking of Jane Doe,” the suit states.

“This view of ‘natural consequences’ is breathtaking,” Yelderman wrote. “When sex trafficking is somehow construed as the ‘natural consequence’ of virtually any action, virtually no person or entity is safe from the threat of liability.”

Techdirt editor Mike Masnick has also pointed out that “the claims against Mailchimp are absolutely the kinds of things we all warned would happen when FOSTA was being debated.”

But FOSTA supporters insisted innocent companies would have nothing to worry about.

In 2018, when the first lawsuit challenging FOSTA’s constitutionality arrived in federal court, Justice Department lawyers argued that it didn’t apply to people like masseuse Eric Koszyk, who advertised on Craigslist, and sex worker activist Alex Andrews. The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia agreed and tossed the case, writing that FOSTA was “plainly calculated to ensnare only specific unlawful acts with respect to a particular individual, not the broad subject-matter of prostitution.”

The plaintiffs appealed, and in January the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals granted Koszyk and Andrews standing to continue the challenge. Hopefully, they can fight their way to a decision that will undermine FOSTA before FOSTA further undermines free speech on the web.

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The Future of FOSTA May Be Frivolous Lawsuits 

Passed in 2018, the Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act—or FOSTA, for short—made it a federal crime to host web content that “promotes” or “facilitates” prostitution.

In the nearly two years since FOSTA became law, neither federal nor state prosecutors have used it. But that doesn’t mean it’s simply gathering dust. Web companies are now experiencing the first wave of civil lawsuits made possible by the law.

Companies anticipated that FOSTA would be used more broadly than its proponents claimed. After Congress passed the legislation with bipartisan support, the classified-ad platform Craigslist quickly axed its entire personals section, including categories on the site that were essentially used the same way as dating apps.

It was not the only site to begin limiting legal content related to relationships and sex. And even though it acted quickly, Craigslist is now the target of one of the first FOSTA-based civil lawsuit efforts, with plaintiffs in California and Washington state filing suit against the company.

Both cases against Craigslist rely on a “radical theory of liability,” wrote University of Notre Dame Law Professor Alex Yelderman in a January blog post. The suits allege that Craigslist’s “erotic services section” was known across the U.S. “as a place to easily locate victims”; that Craigslist knew bad actors had used their site; and that this knowledge “amounted to a venture with sex traffickers to efficiently market victims.”

The suits do not claim Craigslist had specific knowledge of the plaintiff (Jane Doe), the person who harmed her, or which ads were used for sex trafficking rather than consensual erotic encounters. The suit simply claims that Craigslist had previously been put “on notice of the human sex trafficking” committed through the site, and was thus responsible for any trafficking that happened.

Classified-ad sites—like social media platforms, blog publishers, email newsletter providers, dating apps, and publications with online comments sections—are conduits for third-party, user-generated content. Prior to FOSTA’s passage, judges routinely dismissed suits against Craigslist, Backpage, Facebook, and other web hosts accused of sex trafficking, since a federal law on the books bars civil cases and state charges merely for being conduits of third-party speech. But FOSTA changed the rules for speech that concerns sex, opening the floodgates to individual lawsuits against web hosts such as Craigslist. And because the definition of “sex trafficking” can be so blurry and the crime so hard to prove, the broad language in the law leaves a lot of room for lawyers to treat FOSTA like a get-rich-quick-off-Big-Tech scheme.

Another case in federal court this year targets Mailchimp, an email automation and marketing service. Anyone can sign up for an account and use Mailchimp tools to create and send mass emails. One company that did so was YesBackpage, an adult-advertising platform launched after U.S. authorities shut down Backpage, a website that allowed adult services ads.

Plaintiff lawyers in the Mailchimp case say that by letting YesBackpage use its software, Mailchimp was complicit in, and thus financially liable for, any crimes brokered through YesBackpage’s user-generated content. “Mailchimp’s marketing relationship with YesBackpage makes it responsible for its natural consequences—the sex trafficking of Jane Doe,” the suit states.

“This view of ‘natural consequences’ is breathtaking,” Yelderman wrote. “When sex trafficking is somehow construed as the ‘natural consequence’ of virtually any action, virtually no person or entity is safe from the threat of liability.”

Techdirt editor Mike Masnick has also pointed out that “the claims against Mailchimp are absolutely the kinds of things we all warned would happen when FOSTA was being debated.”

But FOSTA supporters insisted innocent companies would have nothing to worry about.

In 2018, when the first lawsuit challenging FOSTA’s constitutionality arrived in federal court, Justice Department lawyers argued that it didn’t apply to people like masseuse Eric Koszyk, who advertised on Craigslist, and sex worker activist Alex Andrews. The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia agreed and tossed the case, writing that FOSTA was “plainly calculated to ensnare only specific unlawful acts with respect to a particular individual, not the broad subject-matter of prostitution.”

The plaintiffs appealed, and in January the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals granted Koszyk and Andrews standing to continue the challenge. Hopefully, they can fight their way to a decision that will undermine FOSTA before FOSTA further undermines free speech on the web.

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From the Archives: May 2020

20 Years Ago

May 2000

“What will Earth look like when Earth Day 60 rolls around in 2030? Here are my predictions: As the International Food Policy Research Institute projects, we will be able to feed the world’s additional numbers and to provide them with a better diet. Because they are ultimately political in nature, poverty and malnutrition will not be eliminated, but economic growth will make many people in the developing world much better off. Technological improvements in agriculture will mean less soil erosion, better management of freshwater supplies, and higher productivity crops. Life expectancy in the developing world will likely increase from 65 years to 73 years, and probably more; in the First World, it will rise to more than 80 years. Metals and mineral prices will be even lower than they are today. The rate of deforestation in the developing world will continue to slow down and forest growth in the developed economies will increase.

Meanwhile, as many developing countries become wealthier, they will start to pass through the environmental-transition thresholds for various pollutants, and their air and water quality will begin to improve. Certainly air and water quality in the United States, Europe, Japan, and other developed countries will be even better than it is today. Enormous progress will be made on the medical front, and diseases like AIDS and malaria may well be finally conquered. As for climate change, concern may be abating because the world’s energy production mix is shifting toward natural gas and nuclear power. There is always the possibility that a technological breakthrough—say, cheap, efficient, non-polluting fuel cells—could radically reshape the energy sector. In any case a richer world will be much better able to cope with any environmental problems that might crop up.

One final prediction, of which I’m most absolutely certain: There will be a disproportionately influential group of doomsters predicting that the future—and the present—never looked so bleak.”

Ronald Bailey
“Earth Day, Then and Now”

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