Tag: news

With the middle eastern proxy war rapidly coalescing into an actual kinetic war, moves are now in motion to determine the shape of alliances once the shooting begins. And while it is quite clear that Russia and China will back Iran in spirit – although it remains to be seen if they will also back it in deed – it is increasingly questionable if that long-term US ally, Europe, will do the same for the US military-industrial complex.

The first hint of trouble emerged late on Friday when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a Fox News interview that the United States’ European allies were not as helpful as he was hoping following the US strike in Iraq on Thursday that killed Iran’s top military commander, Qassem Soleimani. Pompeo compared the European response unfavourably with US “partners in the region”, a reference to Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which Pompeo consulted after the Suleimani assassination.

“I spent the last day and a half, two days, talking to partners in the region, sharing with them what we were doing, why we were doing it, seeking their assistance,” Pompeo told Fox News. “They’ve all been fantastic. And then talking to our partners in other places that haven’t been quite as good.

“Frankly, the Europeans haven’t been as helpful as I wished that they could be,” Pompeo said adding that “the Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well. We’re trying to get Iran to simply behave like a normal nation.”

In justifying the unilateral airstrike, Pompeo said that “Qassem Suleimani led and his IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] led assassination campaigns in Europe. This was a good thing for the entire world, and we are urging everyone in the world to get behind what the United States is trying to do to get the Islamic Republic of Iran to simply behave like a normal nation.”

A similar shift in tone was apparent in Pompeo’s social media remarks: the Secretary of State has tweeted comments about speaking with a various foreign leaders in the past few days, including the Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, the United Arab Emirates’ Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Pompeo tweeted that he thanked the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan region of Iraq “for his steadfast partnership. We agreed on the need for continued, close cooperation.”

Meanwhile, his tweets about European allies hinted at a cool response: “Countering the Iranian regime’s malign activity is a shared priority with our European allies. Our resolve to protect our people & our interests is unwavering,” Pompeo tweeted after his conversation with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.

After speaking with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Pompeo commented, “Germany is also concerned over the Iranian regime’s continued military provocations. The U.S. remains committed to de-escalation.”

British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab, who spoke with Pompeo on Friday, in a statement likewise urged “all parties to de-escalate.” Raab said the U.K. “recognized the aggressive threat” that Soleimani posed, but “further conflict is in none of our interests.”

Similarly, French President Emmanuel Macron tweeted, “The escalation of tensions in the Middle-East isn’t inevitable.” He focused instead on supporting Iraq’s sovereignty and security, “as well as the region’s stability; the fight against [ISIS} terrorism.”

European reaction to the drone-strike killing of Suleimani and Iraqi Shia militants travelling with him in Baghdad has been cautious and apprehensive. While noting Suleimani’s destructive role in the region, governments have called for restraint.  Policy towards Iran has been a deeply divisive issue between the US and Europe since Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 multilateral agreement with Iran that imposed strict limits on its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief. European officials have blamed Trump’s efforts to strangle Iran economically for the rising tensions in the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, the killing of Suleimani has had an immediate impact on the coalition’s effort to wipe out Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Nato suspended its training of Iraqi security forces, currently led by Canada, and the US-led counter-Isis mission in the region, Operation Inherent Resolve, also cut back its activities, including the training of Iraqi counter-terrorist units.

Michael Knights, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that “over the last few days we’ve literally stopped the anti-Isis fight – everything stopped”, adding that the counter-Isis campaign had already been severely hindered over the past year as Shia militias extended their influence. US-led forces have been stopped from flying over a large part of Iraq and banned from communicating with Sunni tribal forces, which had been seen as an important part of the strategy for keeping Isis suppressed.

Knights also said that the increased militia threat has also meant US special forces have had to abandon remote positions which they had been manning with Iraqi army units, because such small 30-strong detachments had become too vulnerable. “You just can’t do that because those guys could easily be overrun, killed or kidnapped by the militias, by the Iranians,” Knights said.

“It’s been very challenging to keep counter-Isis operations going under these conditions, and now with the really ramped-up threat to operating locations, it’s even harder, and if they kick us out of the country, even harder still.”

In a preview of what happens next, Knights said that if the Iraq parliament votes to eject the US military – which it did on Sunday – other partner countries in the coalition will leave too: “It operates on an ‘in-with-us out-with-us’, meaning those countries that came in with the US, will leave with the US.”

Following Hezbollah’s warning to Iraqi security forces to stay clear of US bases today, multiple sources are reporting that the Green Zone in Baghdad, where the US Embassy is located among other things, is under mortar attack.

5 rockets have reportedly landed near the US Embassy…

Air-raid sirens are reportedly going off but there are no reports of injuries yet.

Developing…

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Today I learned there is an embarrassing situation in the NFL. Let’s investigate further.

Embarrassing Situation

The New York Times reports Only Three N.F.L. Head Coaches Are Black. ‘It’s Embarrassing’

“N.F.L. insiders say it will take more than the Rooney Rule to diversify the league’s leadership. Their immediate goal: Increase offensive coaching opportunities for minority candidates, who are often overlooked.”

Rooney Rule

The Rooney Rule is a National Football League policy that requires league teams to interview ethnic-minority candidates for head coaching and senior football operation jobs. It is sometimes cited as an example of affirmative action, as there is no quota or preference given to minorities in the hiring of candidates. It was established in 2003, and variations of the rule are now in place in other industries. The rule is named after Dan Rooney, the former owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers and former chairman of the league’s diversity committee.

Diversity Math

• There are 32 NFL teams

• There are 3 black coaches

• The percentage of blacks in the country is 12.1%

• The percentage of black coaches is 9.4%

Mercy!

But even more shocking is the fact there are 0% female NFL coaches despite the fact that females are over 50.5% of the US population.

Where’s the outrage over this blatantly sexist policy?

And what about Hispanics? They comprise 16.7% of the population. Again, more outrage is needed.

Economic Gender Gap

Unfortunately, it’s not just sports either.

Just yesterday, I commented Allegedly, There is a Gender Gap in Economics

I was right on time.

Today we learn Brainard Says Fed Faces ‘Large Challenge’ to Become More Diverse.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said she’d been taken aback to hear of the difficulties black female employees face at the central bank, and that the monetary authority faces formidable difficulties in increasing their representation.

“It was eye-opening to hear how black women feel about their roles at the Federal Reserve,” Brainard told a session entitled “Women in Central Banking” at the annual meeting of American Economic Association in San Diego on Friday. “They don’t see themselves” celebrated at a bank whose history has been dominated by white men and whose halls are adorned with photographs attesting to that.

Mercy, Mercy, Mercy

I hardly know where to start. But obviously we need universal race and gender quotas.

I propose we start with the military.

I assure you women, properly trained can be as mean and cruel and willing to blow heads off as any man.

The troops ought to be 50.5% (no more, no less) female.

Yet, according to the Defense Department, women only make up 20 percent of the Air Force, 19 percent of the Navy, 15 percent of the Army and a shockingly low 9 percent of the Marine Corps.

There are 38 four-star generals but only 2 of them are women.

Where’s the outrage?

Must Start in College

We have to start somewhere, and college is the correct place. Fortunately, on that score I have progress to report.

Adversity Scores

Please consider Adversity Scores: The Latest Dumbing Down of US Education

If you are black an SAT score of 946 is equivalent to an Asian score of 1223.

Surely this is solution to everything.

Cannot Stop With Race

But we cannot stop with race.

I will not be happy, nor should you, until 50.5% of NFL coaches are female.

Returning to the Fed

Meanwhile, let’s return to what I had to say about the Fed in Allegedly, There is a Gender Gap in Economics

Diversity at the Fed Needed

Instead of more women or blacks on the Fed, I suggest we try actual diversity of economic opinion and not gender for gender’s sake.

What’s most needed on the Fed is an Austrian economist who proposes dissolving it. That would be diversity. Instead, expect more group think nonsense about race and the Phillips Curve.

Good Ole Boy Network

To become a Fed president you have to think, believe, and act like a good ole boy. Janet Yellen is best not thought of as a woman, but rather a good ole boy.

Now that Brainard has chimed in, my stated view cannot possibly be right.

We need to rectify the situation promptly starting with race and gender quotas in college admissions, the military, and of course, professional sports.

But what about enforcement? I am glad you asked because I have the perfect solution.

Diversity Police Needed

We need more diversity police.

And they better be 50.5% women, 16.7% hispanic, and 12.% black.

Addendum

This issue goes back a long way for me. In 1998 I was asked point blank by the president of Harris Bank (now Bank of Montreal, BMO), “From a diverse standpoint who is best qualified for a managerial promotion“.

I named a name in one second flat. It was a black woman. Interestingly, my answer would not have changed had the president left of the word “diverse” from his question.

If this Q&A seems improbable to you, here is the background.

I was an AVP, but a non-manager. The president was 6 managerial levels higher than my manager.

But the question did not shock me in the least as I was very well known and outspoken. At every meeting, no matter how many people were present, I asked a pointed question. On at least 4 occasions, I fired off emails to the president. I spoke my mind.

Addendum 2

Martin Luther King called for judging a person on their character and not their skin. Discrimination should not be tolerated.

But there should be equality of opportunity, not quotas based on race or gender. Give everyone a fair shot and then let the best people succeed.

In what is the final blow to Obama’s landmark JCPOA, or the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran’s government said on Sunday it would no no longer abide by any limits on its enrichment of uranium but would continue to cooperate with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, according to the semi-official FARS news agency.

“The Islamic Republic will no longer observe any limits on the operational aspects of its nuclear program, to include uranium enrichment capacity, enrichment percentage, levels of enriched material and research and development,” Fars reported, citing a statement from the government.

As a reminder, President Trump started the process of unwinding Obama’s signature foreign policy deal in May 2018, when he withdrew the U.S. from the deal, setting off a chain of events that have seen tensions rise to the point where the two countries may now be on the brink of war.

FARS a government statement saying Iran would not respect any limits set down in the pact on the number of uranium enrichment centrifuges it could use, which meant there would be no limits on its enrichment capacity, the level to which uranium could be enriched, or Iran’s nuclear research and development. These would from now on be based on Iran’s technical needs.

The statement also said Iran’s steps could be reversed if Washington lifted its sanctions on Tehran, which of course won’t happen any time soon, if ever.

Instead, what will happen, is that the US will use Iran’s “unilateral” exit from the nuclear deal and the “threat” of a nuclear Iran, as justification for further military intervention, one which in addition to US military, may also involve Israeli forces in the immediate future.

Authored by David Middleton via WattsUpWithThat.com,

It seems like climate apocalypses are experiencing a bit of an apocalypse…

Nolte: Department of Defense Predicted Climate Change Would Destroy Us by 2020

by JOHN NOLTE 3 Jan 2020

Back in 2004, the Department of Defense released a report assuring the world Climate Change would destroy all of us by the year 2020.

Well, welcome to the year 2020! And welcome to yet another fake doomsday prediction number 42 from our renowned climate experts!

Yep, our so-called “climate experts” are now 0-42 with their doomsday predictions, and this latest one is a doozy…

– Breitbart

Mr. Nolte then summarized this 2004 Grauniad article about the 2020 climate apocalypse…

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

And that’s not the worst of it. Get a load of this:

‘Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,‘ concludes the Pentagon analysis. ‘Once again, warfare would define human life.’

…

Climate change ‘should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national security concern’, say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based Global Business Network.

An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is ‘plausible and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately’, they conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding by a rise in sea levels will create major upheaval for millions

– Breitbart excerpt of Grauniad article

Here are some “highlights” from the actual DOD report:

The report reads like the script for The Day After Tomorrow, which was also released in 2004.

It even has a very funny typo…

Medieval War Period? Maybe this was just to catch the attention of the Pentagon brass. Click to enlarge

Why is it that the climate catastrophists never talk or write about the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (BA)? It’s the most anomalous feature on the temperature chart above. The BA is associated with a sharp rise in atmospheric CO2 (25-35 ppm in ice cores, >100 ppm in some plant stomata chronologies) and a genuine sea level rise acceleration, reaching rates of 40-60 mm/yr during Meltwater Pulse 1A.

The authors of the DOD report were futurist Peter Schwartz, who literally has a degree in rocket science, and Doug Randall, who worked for Schwartz at Global Business Network. Doug has an MBA and teaches yoga. It’s unclear as to whether or not they based this report on The Day After Tomorrow, or if Roland Emmerich based the screenplay for his American scientific film on the DOD report. Although it is possible that both works were based on Art “Coast to Coast“ Bell’s climatology textbook…

The Coming Global Superstorm by Art Bell, Whitley Strieber, first published in 1999. Read the prologue here.

I was going to write that you couldn’t make this sort of schist up, if you tried… But people did.

Addendum

Larry Kummer also addressed the Grauniad article and DOD report in this post.

Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Chad Wolf published a special bulletin via the National Terrorism Advisory System, indicating that there is no credible terrorist threat but warns Americans need to be extra vigilant for suspicious activity amid the threat of war with Iran.

Wolf tweeted Saturday, “The new @DHSgov NTAS Bulletin on the threat landscape was issued to inform & reassure the American public, state/local governments & private partners that DHS is actively monitoring & preparing for any specific, credible threat, should one arise.”

The new @DHSgov NTAS Bulletin on the threat landscape was issued to inform & reassure the American public, state/local governments & private partners that DHS is actively monitoring & preparing for any specific, credible threat, should one arise. pic.twitter.com/iNnHU1TI9A

— Acting Secretary Chad Wolf (@DHS_Wolf) January 4, 2020

Wolf’s announcement said there’s “no information indicating” a terrorist attack is imminent but said Iranian government officials and military leaders have called for revenge following US airstrikes that killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds military force and one of the most influential people in the country.

Red Flag: A Symbol Of Severe Battle/War To Come . #IranVsUS #سليماني pic.twitter.com/Z10FKCNA1g

— iftiAmiry (@IftiAmiry) January 4, 2020

The bulletin warned about lone wolf attacks from “homegrown violent extremists could capitalize on the heightened tensions to launch individual attacks” on soft targets. It said Iran could use Hezbollah agents to conduct terrorist attacks within the borders of the US.

It warned: “An attack in the homeland may come with little or no warning.”

The bulletin also said Iran could use cyberattacks to retaliate.

“Iran is capable, at a minimum, of carrying out attacks with temporary disruptive effects against critical infrastructure in the United States,” it read.

On Saturday, an Iranian hacker group breached a US government website and replaced the homepage with Iranian propaganda.

The Federal Depository Library Program’s website, fdlp.gov, saw its home page replaced with an image of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Iranian flag.

“This is a message from the Islamic Republic Of Iran,” the page read.

“We will not stop supporting our friends in the region: the oppressed people of Palestine, the oppressed people of Yemen, the people and the Syrian government, the people and government of Iraq, the oppressed people of Bahrain, the true mujahideen resistance in Lebanon and Palestine [they] always will be supported by us,” the message continued.

The world has dove into uncharted waters – Iran has called for “crushing revenge” for Soleimani’s assassination, and Trump has warned if retaliation is seen, the US will strike 52 Iranian sites.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

2019 was the great masking. 2020 will be all about the great unmasking and control.

In 2019 central banks once again succeeded in masking all the underlying problems in the economy, the underlying structural problems of debt, deflation and demographics, and the slowing of global growth and offering the pretense that 2019’s policy responses were nothing but a complete system failure acknowledging that markets can’t stand on their own two feet without central bank intervention. In process asset prices were artificially inflated across the board and valuations pushed far above the growth and size of global economies and volatility once again compressed.

2020 is then all about whether control over asset prices can be maintained and whether reflation can be achieved to support exaggerated asset prices or whether failure on either count will bring about the great unmasking of the largest asset bubble since the year 2000.

Bond markets and economic data so far shows few signs of true reflation as key individual stocks ($MSFT, $AAPL) are vastly extended and markets are in a state of imbalance partying like it’s 1999.

Optimism is high for 2020 and bulls enter the year in full control. The price target charade offers again positive outlooks despite all economic and growth projections having been off base.

Trust is placed in a phase one China trade deal to be signed on January 15 that nobody has seen or read or has any insight into specifics as to how it will bring about reflation.

Trust is placed in an administration keen on continuing to push asset prices higher into the US November election, even outlining specific asset price targets. (DJIA 32K).

Trust is placed in central banks to keep all troubles contained and to continue to “calm markets” as unexpected events such as the most recent Iran crisis pop up.

Markets are priced to perfection and the first quarter is likely to see a larger first correction. The historical script suggests that the first sizable correction of 2020 will get bought for a new rally to either new highs or lower highs.

It is the unfolding of economic data and earnings throughout the year that will then need to show evidence and match the high expectations priced into markets. Without such evidence markets and global economies may well proceed on the path of the great unmasking that the structural economy has been pointing toward for a while.

While central banks have successfully again kicked the can, they have yet to prove that reflation can be achieved. Non confirmation signals keep increasing as does the list of factors that need to be ignored to keep the ‘it’s different this time’ narrative alive.

Join me in this week’s market video for an in-depth discussion of technicals and key macro factors/concerns that suggest risk may be greatly misprized :

*  *  *

To get notified of future videos feel free to subscribe to our YouTube Channel. For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services.

Joe Biden can’t seem to get his story straight regarding the 2011 Bin Laden raid in which a team of SEALs killed the terrorist leader in a Pakistan compound.

Eight years ago, Biden told a group of congressional Democrats: “Mr. President, my suggestion is, don’t go — we have to do two more things to see if he’s there.”

2/

In 2012, Biden said he told Obama unequivocally: “Mr. President, my suggestion is don’t go.” pic.twitter.com/zTm1HQ6wiZ

— Zach Parkinson (@AZachParkinson) January 3, 2020

Biden began to change his account in 2013, telling the New York Times he told Obama to “follow your instincts,” and then told him “Go” the next morning. He repeated this changed account in 2015, claiming that he privately told Obama to go ahead.

4/ By 2015, Biden completely contradicted what he said before

Biden claimed he never told Obama “don’t go” and that he privately gave Obama his real advice to “go” and “follow his own instincts” when (conveniently) other witnesses weren’t around pic.twitter.com/qjfKtLCNSg

— Zach Parkinson (@AZachParkinson) January 3, 2020

5/ There’s one problem with Biden’s claim though: virtually every other account from Obama Administration officials contradicts

Including Barack Obama, who in 2012, said Biden had “the same critique” of the raid as Mitt Romney did pic.twitter.com/37vDBKHyOr

— Zach Parkinson (@AZachParkinson) January 3, 2020

On Friday, Biden doubled down on his lie during a brief exchange with Fox News:

“As commander in chief, if you were ever handed a piece of intelligence that said you could stop an imminent attack on Americans — but you have to use an airstrike to take out a terrorist leader — would you pull the trigger?” Biden was asked.

To which Biden replied “Well we did – the guy’s name was Osama bin Laden.”

“Didn’t you tell President Obama not to go after bin Laden that day?” Fox followed up.

“No, I didn’t,” Biden replied.

Joe Biden is now trying to cover up his opposition to the Osama bin Laden raid.

Moments ago, Biden says, “No I didn’t” when confronted by Peter Doocy for being against the raid.

8 years ago, Biden said he opposed raid and told Obama, “Mr. President, my suggestion is don’t go.” pic.twitter.com/zAWhMf38MU

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) January 3, 2020

On Friday, the Republican National Committee (RNC) slammed Biden over Friday’s claim, according to Fox News. 

“This isn’t another instance of Joe Biden misspeaking, it’s an instance of Biden flat-out lying,” said spokesman Steve Guest.

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

2019 was another “rung” in the ongoing bull market.  The trifecta of a resumption of QE, interest rate cuts, and a flood of federal debt coupled with ongoing stock buybacks and corporate tax cuts all fueled an asset explosion. 

But the Census Bureau was kind enough to release their 2019 data (HERE), and it was simply as divergent to the positive market data as could be.  I could only find once in US history that total US population grew at such a low rate (below 0.5%) and that was due to the 1918-1919 global influenza pandemic (Spanish Flu) which in the aftermath of WWI killed between 20 and 40 million globally and nearly 700,000 Americans.  This was almost ten times those Americans that perished in the war to end all wars.  

The reality is the lower organic population growth (and resultant consumer growth) goes, the greater synthetic substitutes are employed.

Why all the debt?

The chart below should be the chart of the year except the US picture is relatively “better” than most advanced nations.  It is the ongoing collapse in US population growth among the under 70 year-old population versus surging 70+ year-olds.  The Census detailed that total 2019 population growth fell to just 1.55 million and this was due to ongoing declining total births and collapsing net immigration (much to due with stronger border enforcement).  2008 was the precipice and under 70 year-old population growth has been tumbling ever since.  As a reminder, it is the 0-70 year-olds that make up 90%+ of the work force, that undertake 90%+ of the credit, and it is they that drive the increase in the money supply in our fractional reserve banking system.  When their growth is minimal, the deleveraging of the fast growing elderly essentially destroys currency causing a cascade of deflation.  Only via pure monetization underway now can central banks delay the overwhelming tide of deflation and asset collapse.

As I discussed in the onset, the chart below details the annual percentage growth of the under 65 year old population (yellow line) versus the debt to GDP ratio with periods of significant debt increases in red columns and debt to GDP declines in blue columns.  The severity of the population decline due to the Spanish flu in 1918-1919 was not just the deaths, but the majority of deaths were among the 15-35 year old population.  Only now, a hundred year later, is the US revisiting what is essentially zero growth but rather than due to a pandemic, this time the situation is structural rather than accidental.

How much debt?

In order to see how 2019 fits into the bigger picture, I pull back to show US federal debt (split between public debt versus intragovernmental trust funds) and the federal funds rate.  The $12+ trillion in net additional public debt issued since 2007 is only set to pick up pace as federal spending rises, taxation continues declining, and unfunded liabilities metastasize.

Viewing the same but breaking out annual federal debt split between the change in public and intragovernmental debt versus the federal funds rate.  Both charts highlight the shift from Social Security and like IG trust funds (mandated to buy US debt with “surplus” funds) to Public (and pretty much solely the US Public as foreigners have ceased net buying).  The Treasury Bulletin makes the lack of natural foreign or domestic buyers crystal clear

Who bought all the debt?

Below, comparing the increase in Treasury holdings over the 2009 through 2014 versus 2015 through 2019 periods, the divergence is again clear thanks to Treasury Bulletin reports (HERE).  The Federal Reserve and foreign buyers carried 70% of the new issuance from ’09 through ’14, while domestic buyers took down over 70% since QE 3’s end.  Since QE3 ended, that is supposedly nearly $4 trillion in low yielding US Treasury debt that domestic sources bought instead of stocks, or real estate, etc.  Dubious is the word I would use to describe the likelihood of non-manipulated record asset prices in stocks, bonds, and real estate while supposedly simultaneously domestic sources poured $4 trillion into low yielding bonds?!?

And detailing the change among the domestic sources over the same periods as above.  According to the Treasury, we can only really say who it isn’t.  Not banks, not savings bonds, not private buyers, not insurers, not state / local buying…it continues to be “other investors” (individuals, GSE’s, corporates/non-corporate business’, & brokers/dealers).  Again, the credibility of domestic investors have trillions available to plow into low yielding Treasuries while simultaneously also driving stocks, etc. should be laughable.  I have no evidence who did buy all that debt, only a long list of who didn’t.

Debt & Employment

With minimal present and future working age population growth, the fact that the US is at historically full employment should be of great concern.  With so few additional persons entering the potential workforce and nearly all those capable and willing already working…there is little further employment growth possible…and without that there is little to no further growth in consumers, home buyers, etc..  Throw all the debt and QE you want at this to get the existing population to consume more, but without further bodies available to work and consumer more…the party is over.

Debt and Population Growth

Looking at annual births (blue columns below) versus changing age segments of the US population.  The yellow line is the 15 to 40 year-old childbearing population and estimated to rise some five million through 2030…but as I showed above, the anticipated population streams of growth have been lost and thanks to tanking births and immigration, the childbearing population is unlikely to grow much…and with ongoing falling births, soon the childbearing population will be in decline.  From there a declining childbearing population with negative birth rates leads to a likely rapid decline in births.

Debt in Perspective 

Some attempt to detail the lunacy of the debt creation against a fixed asset like gold, but to wrap this up I show annual US births (inclusive of all the millions of immigrants both legal and illegal) versus US federal debt.

And dividing all that rising debt versus the annual quantity of newborns reveals a pretty unpleasant picture…the elderly saddling the youth with unrepayable debt to maintain a lifestyle that is utterly unrealistic and unachievable except via generational theft.  Not the kindest of parting gifts.

Plus, I got last place in my college football bowl pool…again.  Unbelievable.  There’s always next year.  Anyway, happy 2020 and fight the good fight.

If President Trump wanted to reduce America’s troop presence in the Middle East, he may have just got his wish, albeit not at his orders.

During an emergency parliamentary session this morning, the Iraqi government just voted to have foreign troops removed from the country.

Interim Iraqi prime minister, Adil Abdul Mahdi, stressed during the session, that while the US government notified the Iraqi military of the planned strike on Soleimani, his government denied Washington permission to continue with the operation.

As RT reports, Mahdi said after the incident that it was clear it was in the interest of both the US and Iraq to end the presence of foreign forces on Iraqi soil.

“Despite the internal and external difficulties that we might face, it remains best for Iraq on principle and practically.”

Still there are plenty more US bases around…

Meanwhile, as the Iraqi government voted, the Iranian parliament took to the Parliament podium to chant “death to America.”

After a speech by parliamentary Speaker Ali Larjani, who exclaimed “Mr. Trump, this is the voice of the Iranian nation,” MPs surged united to the podium…

طنین شعار #مرگ_بر_امریکا در صحن مجلس شورای اسلامی در محکومیت اقدام تروریستی امریکا و شهادت سردار سپهبد حاج #قاسم_سلیمانی/ صبح امروز pic.twitter.com/mg10iQACcK

— خبرگزاری صداوسیما (@iribnewsFa) January 5, 2020

The Iranian MPs echoed a popular sentiment heard on the streets as 1000s mourned the death of Qasem Soleimani.