Tag: news

Following last night’s blockbuster Chinese data, when virtually every key data point beat expectations in some cases notably, global markets and bond yields are broadly higher, if mutedly so, as traders evaluated whether China’s economic recovery will be enough to put rate hikes back on the table even as Germany’s economy ministry revised its growth forecast lower to just 0.5%. Global markets and futures are a sea of green but tentatively so as

As a reminder, China reported that Q1 GDP rose 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.3%; Chinese Industrial Production burst higher by 8.5% smashing expectations of 5.9%; the fastest growth since July 2014, while Retail Sales for March jumped 8.7% vs. the Exp. 8.4%. Fixed asset investment was the only category that printed in line, at 6.3%.

China’s economy held up in the first three months as policy makers boosted stimulus to sustain growth, with the (goalseeked) data suggesting pro-cyclical policies are taking effect. While a report that the country’s leaders are considering more measures should provide comfort for stock bulls and damp demand for bonds, concerns still linger about the outlook for the euro region according to Bloomberg.

The far stronger Chinese data appears to have short circuited rate cut expectations for the time being, and as a result the risk asset response was marginal at best, with US equity futures rising less than 0.2% with gains were capped by disappointing quarterly reports from Netflix and IBM, while the Shanghai Composite flirted with the unchanged line for much of the session before closing just 0.3% higher.

Meanwhile a forecast of faster growth due to demand from China by semiconductor equipment maker ASML, pushed U.S. chipmakers higher in premarket trading, adding to yesterday’s historic Qualcomm gains after the company settled its long-running litigation with Apple; Intel, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia gained between 0.5% and 3.6%. At the same time, IBM declined 3.5% after reporting a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly revenue.

Where things got interesting, is that after a subdued start, European stocks pushed into positive territory after reports China was considering even more stimulus measures to bolster consumption, with autos the notable outperformer, shrugging off weak sales numbers. Meanwhile, the German Government cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% vs. prev. 1.0%, in line with expectations, even as it projects a rebound to 1.5% in 2020; Inflation is seen at 1.5% in 2019, 1.8% in 2020.

This followed an advance in Asian shares, with Japan and Shanghai rising modestly after data showed China’s economic growth, industrial production and retail sales all better-than-expected

With earnings season in full swing, analysts now expect first-quarter S&P 500 profits to have dropped 1.8% year-on-year, according to Refinitiv data. While a solid improvement over recent estimates, it would still mark the first earnings contraction since 2016. Of the 42 S&P 500 companies that have posted so far, 81% have beaten consensus, compared with the 65% average beat rate going back to 1994.

While Brexit news are on the backburner this week, local UK Conservative party chairmen are circulating a petition which seeks an Extraordinary General Meeting to pass a no-confidence vote in PM May. The report states that the party will be obliged to hold a meeting if more than 65 association chairmen sign the motion; so far between 40-50 have signed it, with expectations that the threshold could be passed next week.

In global rates, Bund and USTs grind lower, 10Y German yields rise ~2bps with the long end steady after a decent auction. Gilt curve bear flattens slightly, 10Y Gilt futures find support at Monday’s lows after U.K. inflation stays below target. BTPs trade sideways, peripheral yield spreads all marginally tighter to core.

US Treasury futures broadly held earlier losses spurred by strong Chinese economic data. Yields were cheaper by 1.5bp-2bp from 5-year to long end, less in front end, steepening 2s10s by ~1bp; 10-year yields 2.605% after touching 2.612% during European morning, highest since March 20. Futures volumes were robust through 7am ET, 20% above 20-day average in TYM9.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index traded lower but within Tuesday’s range while commodity currencies traded well, with AUD the best performer in G-10, NZD continues to lag after soft inflation data. Yuan strength continues in Europe, rising ~0.4% vs USD following China’s data report.

In commodities, WTI crude traded sideways around Tuesday’s best levels as base metals predictably pushed higher led by copper and aluminium.

On the economic front, a Commerce Department report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show U.S. trade deficit widening to $53.5 billion in February; we also get data on wholesale inventories and the Fed’s Beige Book. Abbott, Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo, and Alcoa are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,916.25
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 388.37
• MXAP up 0.2% to 163.92
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 546.39
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 22,277.97
• Topix up 0.3% to 1,630.68
• Hang Seng Index down 0.02% to 30,124.68
• Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,263.12
• Sensex up 1% to 39,275.64
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,256.38 
• Kospi down 0.1% to 2,245.89
• German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.085%
• Euro up 0.3% to $1.1316
• Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 2.223%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.082%
• Brent futures up 0.7% to $72.23/bbl
• Gold spot little changed at $1,276.03
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• China’s economy rebounded through the first quarter, offering the government room for maneuver as trade negotiations with the U.S. enter a crucial stage. The economy expanded 6.4%, exceeding economist estimates. Factory output and retail sales also beat expectations in March to ease concerns about a slowdown
• Investors are the most optimistic on the euro in a year as conviction grows that Europe’s economy is recovering. Three-month risk reversals on the common currency, a gauge of sentiment, have turned in favor of calls over puts
• U.K. inflation unexpectedly stayed below target last month. The figures means wages are rising faster than prices, a boost for consumer spending, key for the British economy. The lack of headline inflationary pressure gives policy makers breathing space to keep interest rates on hold until the Brexit crisis is resolved
• Germany’s gross domestic product is to grow 0.5%, half as much as previously forecast amid slowing global expansion and concerns over Brexit and trade disputes, the economy ministry said on Wednesday.
• Foxconn billionaire founder Terry Gou announced Wednesday he’s running for Taiwan’s presidency, shaking up a race that will determine whether the island moves closer to China. Foxconn Technology Group is the main assembler of iPhones
• GAM Holding AG jumped the most since December after the company reported slowing outflows and said it would soon complete the liquidation of its scandal-hit bond fund

Asian equity markets traded indecisively following the cautious gains on Wall St due to mixed earnings and as the region failed to fully benefit from a slew of better than expected Chinese data. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was negative with the index led lower by underperformance in the mining sector after BHP reported weaker quarterly production numbers and amid declines in Chinese iron ore prices after Vale received approval to resume Brucutu mine operations, while Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was positive although initial price action had mirrored a choppy currency. Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were indecisive with only brief support seen despite the better than expected Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, as some suggested the data dampens prospects of PBoC action and after the central bank also recently suggested a preference for restraint in its quarterly monetary policy document. Furthermore, the PBoC conducted a liquidity injection of CNY 160bln through 7-day reverse repos but only announced CNY 200bln in MLF loans vs. the expiring CNY 366.5bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally lower as Japanese stocks remained afloat and on spillover selling from T-notes, while the US 30yr yield eyed the 3.0% level for the first time in nearly a month. Japan and the US have agreed to accelerate trade talks after an initial meeting in Washington suggested the two nations will stick to a narrow range of subjects

Top Asian News

• PBOC Trims Liquidity Supply in Sign It’s Dialing Back Stimulus
• Nippon Paint Buying Australia’s DuluxGroup for $2.7 Billio
• Jokowi Takes Early Lead in Unofficial Indonesia Vote Counts
• Turkish Opposition Claims Win in Istanbul After Vote Recount
• Singapore Takes Over Water Plant at Heart of Hyflux Debacle

Major European indices are little changed [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%] following on from indecisive overnight trade as Asian equity market were unable to capitalise on the strong Chinses data. The AEX (+0.2%) is marginally outperforming its peers, boosted by index heavyweight ASML (+1.5%) who have around a 12% weighting in the AEX and are higher following their earnings and the Co. confirming their full year guidance. Sectors are mixed, with underperformance seen in material names at the open, with the sector weighed on by BHP (-2.6%) after the Co. lowered their FY19 output guidance and Rio Tinto (-2.8%) in the red after being downgraded. Other notable movers this morning include ABB (+5.4%) following earnings and the surprise resignation of the Co’s CEO Spiesshofer, after being unable to placate shareholders with the sale of their power grid division in December. Elsewhere, Roche (+0.1%) have fallen from opening highs of around 1.6%; however, price action for the Co. was initially driven by the announcement that they are raising FY19 outlook to mid-single digit growth vs. Prev. low-mid single digit range, alongside expectations for further dividend increases.

Top European News

• Tech Stocks Outperform on ASML, Ericsson Results, Chip Gains
• Italy’s Populist Leaders Besiege the Central Bank, Lenders
• Juventus Plunges as Champions League Upset Sends Ajax Soaring
• ABB Chief Steps Down After Power-Grid Split Fails to Impress
• Pendragon Tumbles as U.K. Car-Price Slump Forces Strategy Review

In FX, first we look at USD, CNY – China’s economy unexpectedly held up in Q1 despite a slew of calls for a March bottom. GDP growth for the quarter topped estimates at 6.4% Y/Y, within the country’s 2019 target of 6.0-6.5%, whilst March IP and retail sales beats also provided extra impetus for the Yuan which breached 6.70 to the downside against the Dollar to print a low of just above 6.68. Hence, DXY lost the 97.000 handle upon the release and continues to edge lower in early EU trade. The Dollar index currently resides just off lows of 96.810 ahead of its 50 DMA at around 96.800. A light calendar for the US sees February trade data released at 13:30BST, ahead of Fed voter (and notorious dove) Bullard’s speech on the US economy and monetary policy.

• AUD, NZD – The Aussie is the marked beneficiary from the upbeat Chinese data wherein the jump in industrial production and a maintained GDP growth aided AUD/USD to briefly reclaim 0.7200 to the upside (from an intraday low of 0.7150) for the first time since February. The pair currently resides just below the figure, albeit above its 200 DMA at 0.7193 with Aussie jobs data on the overnight docket. Note: around USD 1.5bln options are set to expire between strikes 0.7190-7200. Conversely, the Kiwi does not bode so well amid dismal CPI figures in which markets pricing for a May OCR cut shifted to above 50%. On a brighter note for the NZD/USD, the overnight Chinese data resurrected the currency from a low of 0.6670 (vs. pre-data high of 0.6775) before stabilising above its 200 DMA at around 0.6730.
• EUR, GBP – An upbeat day for the Euro thus far amid the weakness in the Buck. The single currency was little swayed by the release of unrevised EZ inflation finals and the German government’s cut to 2019 GDP growth forecasts as was widely expected. EUR/USD breached its 50 DMA at 1.1300 to the upside in early hours and remains north of the figure where 1.4bln in options are set to expire at today’s NY cut. Elsewhere, Sterling took a hit from the benign inflation figures in which headline inflation printed at 1.9%, below the forecast 2.0%. As such, Cable lost the 1.3050 handle and resides close to session lows at 1.3033 ahead of its 50 WMA at 1.3029. ING argues that “British Retail Consortium had suggested that wholesale food costs had risen, on the back of adverse weather and higher global commodity prices”, hence overall inflation could be bumped up next month, possibly to the 2% target when combined with the rise in household energy caps. GBP now awaits for any potential direction from BoE Governor Carney scheduled to speak at 14:00BST.
• CAD – Another G10 winner from the pullback in the Dollar, also underpinned from the rise in oil prices following last night’s surprise drawdown in API stocks. USD/CAD currently resides below its 100 DMA at 1.3327, having briefly breached its 50 DMA to the downside at 1.3314 ahead of Canadian inflation data this afternoon, with headline expected to tick up to 1.9% from 1.5%.
• New Zealand CPI (Q1) Q/Q 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%). (Newswires) New Zealand CPI (Q1) Y/Y 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.9%) New Zealand RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%)

In commodities, Brent (+0.6%) and WTI (+0.6%) prices are firmer with prices supported by the unexpected API draw of 3.1M vs. Exp. build of 1.7M. Elsewhere, strike action at Shells Pernis oil refinery [capacity of 404k BPD] is still ongoing, with most recent updates that union leaders state that the refinery is to remain at 65% operating rate, and there is currently no indication of when the refinery will return to full operation. Separately, Saudi Aramco are reportedly to purchase the 50% stake that Shell currently owns in SASREF, which is a joint venture between the two Co’s with a refining capacity in excess of 300k BPD. Later in the session we have the EIA weekly report, and due to scheduling for Easter holidays the Baker Hughes rig count will be released Thursday April 18th. Gold is flat and trading within a narrow USD 4/oz range, with price action from the softer dollar and stronger than expected Chinese data largely cancelling each other out. As such the yellow metal, is trading just above the prior sessions low of around USD 1272, which was the metals lowest level since December 27th. Elsewhere, the world’s largest iron ore miner Vale say they intend to resume operations at their Brucutu operations within the next 72 hours weighing on both the mining index and iron ore prices.

US Event Calendar

• 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications -3.5%, prior -5.6%
• 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $53.4b deficit, prior $51.1b deficit
• 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 1.2%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
• 12:30pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks on the Economic Outlook
• 12:45pm: Fed’s Bullard Speaks at Hyman Minsky Conference
• 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
• 5:30pm: New York Fed’s Logan Speaks at Money Marketeers of New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Over the last two days I’ve been doing an internal DB scheme where MD’s have multiple open door slots for more junior staff. The expectation is that we connect with people at an earlier stage of their career from all over the firm and offer them any guidance we can give. There were quite a few recent graduates signed up and in having the enjoyable meetings I couldn’t help chuckle at how different my experience as a graduate was in the mid 1990s to those we hire today. In my first two years (in sales) I got 30 people’s breakfast and coffees every day, burned through two suits with all the loose change making holes in my pockets, photocopied 100 x 50 pages of corporate bond price sheets everyday to be on all sales and traders desk by the time they got in at 7am and was generally treated like an errand boy. At one point I was asked to go 5 miles in a taxi to get food from my then boss’s favourite fish and chip shop one Friday lunchtime. My favourite memory though was that every grad was given an older mentor outside of his area to use as a sounding board. However my one was a grumpy guy in his late 40s who couldn’t think of anything worse than being a mentor. He was forced to take me out to lunch in my earliest days but instead took a friend of his and asked me to sit at the bar while he dined with his friend. I didn’t go back to him for any subsequent advice I sought. So it’s fair to say that the City has changed for the better over the last 25 years. So if any graduate wants some advice I’ll be very happy to provide it… in return for a coffee, a bacon sarnie and a fish supper!!! And maybe some painting and decorating at home!

We’re straight to Asia this morning where the latest Chinese growth data and activity indicators are out. They confirm our 2019 belief that the economy is improving as China’s mini stimulus filters through the economy. To start with China’s Q1 GDP came in one tenth above expectations at 6.4% yoy while all of the March activity indicators surprised on the upside with industrial production surging at +8.5% yoy (vs. +5.9% yoy expected) – the highest since July 2014. Retail sales printed at +8.7% yoy (vs. +8.4% yoy expected), YTD fixed assets ex rural came in line with consensus at +6.3% yoy and the jobless rate fell one tenth to 5.2%. This data confirms what we’d been expecting given the credit impulse numbers in recent months and should help European data over the coming weeks. The downside to the numbers will be a more hawkish PBOC. Their monetary policy statement yesterday described the appropriate policy stance as “moderately tight” and it seems today they injected much less liquidity into the market as was expected. So that’s the only sting in the tail to these numbers.

China’s markets have probably been weighing up these conflicting forces as the Shanghai Comp is currently trading flat after oscillating between gains and losses of as much as +0.47% and -0.42% respectively. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (-0.22%) is down while the Nikkei (+0.29%) and Kospi (+0.02%) are up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat (+0.07%).

In other news, Japan’s economy minister Toshimitsu Motegi said that the first phase of trade talks with the US focused on agriculture and cars, with digital trade set to be discussed at a later date. He added, “From the next session onwards we will speed up discussions toward an early agreement, and will discuss digital trade at an appropriate time.” This morning we saw Japan’s March trade data with the adjusted trade balance standing at -JPY 177.8bn (vs. -JPY 242.5bn expected) as a slowdown in imports (at +1.1% yoy vs. +2.8% yoy expected) outpaced a slowdown in exports (at -2.4% yoy vs. -2.6% yoy expected), marking the fourth consecutive month where exports have shrunk.

The moves this morning follow another fairly damp squib of a day on Wall Street yesterday, albeit one which ended with markets nudging a bit higher. Indeed global equities edged up across the board as did bond yields. The S&P 500 finished +0.05% with volumes over 10% below average and with an intraday range of 0.96% which was the 6th smallest this year. It wasn’t a lot different for the NASDAQ (+0.30%) and DOW (+0.26%), with all three major US indexes now hovering within 2% of their all-time highs. Prior to this, the STOXX 600 edged up +0.29%. US HY spreads ended -3bps tighter while Treasuries (+3.6bps) nudged back up to 2.591%, their highest level in a month, with the move driven by real yields not inflation breakevens. The 2s10s yield curve steepened 1.8bps to 17.9 bps, edging toward the top of its year-to-date range of between 12-20 bps.

With bigger fish to fry for markets including this morning’s China data and the PMIs tomorrow though, it was earnings which by and large dictated the tempo yesterday with the headline reporters being Bank of America before the bell and Netflix after. Like all the other US banks so far, BoA earnings beat while sales also came ahead of consensus, though management also pointed towards an expected slowdown in net interest income for the remainder of the year. The share price pared a loss of -2.82% to end the session +0.10%, as the broader banks index advanced +1.35%, partially boosted by the rise in treasury yields. Morgan Stanley numbers – the last of the big US banks to report – are out today.

Away from BofA we also saw earnings beats for Blackrock (shares +3.24%) and Johnson & Johnson (+1.10%), though UnitedHealth (-4.01%) disappointed. Their CEO said that US political proposals for universal health insurance would result in “wholesale disruption” to the existing healthcare industry. After the close Netflix’s earnings basically met expectations overall as first quarter subscriber growth beat consensus forecasts but the company’s estimates moving forward were lower than expected. The share price slipped -0.84% overnight. Separately, freight giant CSX shares rose +4.63% after the close on strong profits and shipping volumes. It’s still very early in earnings season with just under 10% of the names having reported so far but the trend has been for a large number beating earnings expectations (39 out of 46) but only half (23 out of 46) beating sales expectations. Separate from the earnings reports, news (Bloomberg) broke late in the session that Qualcomm and Apple had settled all of their worldwide litigation, with Apple agreeing to pay a one-time fee as well as royalties for the next six years. Qualcomm said they expected a $2 per share boost to earnings, and its shares led gains for the NASDAQ, advancing +23.21%. Apple shares closed flat.

There was also a little bit of macro news to feed off, specifically a couple of ECB stories. The first was a headline on Reuters stating that “several” ECB policymakers had doubts about projections for a growth rebound in the second half of this year, however this appeared to be more about forecasting methodology rather than policy. About an hour later though a story on Bloomberg suggested that ECB officials lacked enthusiasm for sub-zero tiering. The full story suggested that ECB policy makers weren’t opposed to examining the impact however were yet to be convinced of the merits of a switch to tiering. European Banks lost about half a percent post the story hitting however within minutes had pared that move and ultimately ended the day with a steady +1.06% gain as bond yields climbed. The euro actually reacted more to the first story but also retraced the move to end the day -0.18%. 10y Bunds saw a mini rollercoaster after hitting 0.072% early on (ZEW helped – see below) before hitting an intraday low of 0.038% an hour later around the ECB headlines before ending 0.065%, +1.0bps higher on the day. Tomorrow’s PMIs are the next major landmark for bunds.

Also on the macro front, our global economic research teams from Europe, the US, Japan, and China pooled their expertise and published a report yesterday examining the policy space available to combat the next recession. Their report looks at the monetary and fiscal options in the four major economic zones. The US and China have the most scope to use monetary policy, while all countries have the potential to employ fiscal measures. The full report with details for each region is available here .

In other news, the data that was out yesterday played second fiddle to earnings and the ECB stories. Nevertheless for completeness in the US industrial production disappointed a bit in March, coming in at -0.1% mom versus expectations for +0.2%. Manufacturing production also came in below market (0.0% mom vs. +0.1% expected), while it was noted that vehicle production dropped -2.5%. A drop in capacity utilisation also followed to 78.8% while later on the April NAHB housing market index reading printed 1pt higher at 63, as expected.

Prior to this, in Germany the ZEW survey of expectations for April rose more than expected to +3.1 (vs. +0.5 expected) from -3.6 in the month prior. A reminder that the March reading saw an improvement of 9.8pts and in fact we’ve now seen this reading rise for six consecutive months and turn positive for the first time in over a year. There’s a bit of debate as to how useful this is as a macro forecasting tool however with the PMIs a much bigger focus unsurprisingly. Meanwhile, here in the UK wage growth stayed put at +3.4% 3m/yoy and the unemployment also held steady at 3.9%. Both signalling continued strength in the labour market.

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes more data out of the UK where the March CPI/RPI/PPI data docket is due. Not long after that we’ll get the final March CPI revisions along with the February trade balance for the Euro area, while this afternoon in the US we’ve also got the February trade balance, as well as February wholesale inventories and trade sales data. The Fed’s Beige book is also due tonight while scheduled speakers include the BoE’s Carney, ECB’s de Galhau and Lautenschlaeger, and the Fed’s Harker, Bullard and Logan. Germany’s Economy Minister Altmaier will also present Germany’s latest economic forecasts, while the earnings highlights include PepsiCo and Morgan Stanley.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2PfleJF Tyler Durden

Authored by Craig Murray,

Both Chelsea Manning and Julian Assange are now in jail, both over offenses related to the publication of materials specifying U.S. war crimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, and both charged with nothing else at all. No matter what bullshit political and MSM liars try to feed you, that is the simple truth. Manning and Assange are true heroes of our time, and are suffering for it.

If a Russian opposition politician were dragged out by armed police, and within three hours had been convicted on a political charge by a patently biased judge with no jury, with a lengthy jail sentence to follow, can you imagine the Western media reaction to that kind of kangaroo court? Yet that is exactly what just happened in London.

Westminster’s Magistrate’s Court, April 11, 2019. (Twitter)

District Judge Michael Snow is a disgrace to the bench who deserves to be infamous well beyond his death. He displayed the most plain and open prejudice against Assange in the 15 minutes it took for him to hear the case and declare Assange guilty last week, in a fashion which makes the dictators’ courts I had witnessed, in Ibrahim Babangida’s Nigeria or Isam Karimov’s Uzbekistan, look fair and reasonable, in comparison to the gross charade of justice conducted by Michael Snow.

One key fact gave away Snow’s enormous prejudice.

Julian Assange said nothing during the whole brief proceedings, other than to say “Not guilty” twice, and to ask a one-sentence question about why the charges were changed midway through this sham “trial.” Yet Judge Michael Snow condemned Assange as “narcissistic.”

There was nothing that happened in Snow’s brief court hearing that could conceivably have given rise to that opinion. It was plainly something he brought with him into the courtroom, and had read or heard in the mainstream media or picked up in his club.

It was in short, the very definition of prejudice, and “Judge” Michael Snow and his summary judgement is a total disgrace.

Assange on way to Belmarsh Prison, April 11, 2019. (Twitter)

I am part of the Wikileaks media and legal team and the whole team, including Julian, is energized rather than downhearted. At last there is no more hiding for the pretend liberals behind ludicrous Swedish allegations or bail jumping allegations, and the true motive – revenge for the Chelsea Manning revelations – is now completely in the open.

To support the persecution of Assange in these circumstances is to support absolute state censorship of the internet. It is to support the claim that any journalist who receives and publishes official material which indicates U.S. government wrongdoing, can be punished for its publication. Furthermore, this U.S. claim involves an astonishing boost to universal jurisdiction. Assange was nowhere near the USA when he published the documents, but nonetheless U.S. courts are willing to claim jurisdiction. This is a threat to press and internet freedom everywhere.

These are scary times. But those may also be the most inspiring of times.

* * *

Craig Murray is an author, broadcaster and human rights activist. He was British Ambassador to Uzbekistan from August 2002 to October 2004

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2PeiLz3 Tyler Durden

The recent collapse in world trade volume is the worst since the financial crisis and as dangerous as during the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, according to The Telegraph.

Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis revealed that world trade volume dropped 1.8% in the three months to January compared to the preceding three months as a synchronized global downturn gained momentum.

“An industrial slump has been triggered by a perfect storm of factors, including China’s slowdown, the car industry downturn, Brexit paralysis and Donald Trump’s attempt to upend the international trade system with tariffs on European and Chinese goods,” explained The Telegraph.

A further escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China could spark a world trade recession. Already, Washington has imposed steep tariffs on Chinese imports worth $250bn in a tit-for-tat battle with industrial centers in Asia and Germany experiencing sharp drops in trade in recent months.

The Telegraph describes the sudden loss in trade momentum is equivalent to the months after the dot com bubble imploded in 2001 when trade volumes sank as much as 2.2%. Today’s current move is the biggest fall since the financial crisis of 2007–2008 when global trade plummeted, diving as much as 12.7%.

The International Monetary Fund warned last week that this is a “delicate moment” for the global economy as many countries are in the midst of a severe slowdown.

The global economy has “lost further momentum” in the last six months, said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

Lagarde pinned trade volume deterioration on decelerating global growth and “the impact of increased trade tensions on spending”  on producer goods.

The global downturn in trade is widespread geographically. The synchronized slowdown is expected to stabilize beyond 2020; however, in the meantime, it’s likely the world could be headed for a trade recession, if not already in one. 

 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2InIi8h Tyler Durden

Authored by Rob Slane via TheBlogMire.com,

Well this is interesting.

I had intended to put up a new thread for people who want to continue commenting on the Salisbury and Amesbury cases, as the last piece I did on it has reached an unmanageable 1,500+ comments. But just as I was about to do so, I was alerted to an important piece over on the Moon of Alabama website, entitled, “CIA Director Used Fake Skripal Incident Photos To Manipulate Trump“.

The gist of the piece is as follows. Back in April 2018, the Washington Post published an article about the decision taken by the United States to expel 60 Russian diplomats in the wake of the Salisbury poisoning. According to the authors, the day after the decision was made, President Trump reacted in anger when he found out that the French and the Germans were expelling just four diplomats each:

“The next day, when the expulsions were announced publicly, Trump erupted, officials said. To his shock and dismay, France and Germany were each expelling only four Russian officials — far fewer than the 60 his administration had decided on. The President, who seemed to believe that other individual countries would largely equal the United States, was furious that his administration was being portrayed in the media as taking by far the toughest stance on Russia.”

Mr Trump, it seems, believed that he had been misled by officials, as the piece goes on to say:

“Growing angrier, Trump insisted that his aides had misled him about the magnitude of the expulsions. ‘There were curse words,’ the official said, ‘a lot of curse words.’”

Whether Mr Trump was misled about the magnitude of the expulsions is impossible to say without a transcript of that meeting. What does seem certain, however, is that he was misled in another, far more important way, as Moon of Alabama goes on to point out.

In an article in today’s New York Times about the head of the CIA, Gina Haspel, an extraordinary piece of information is revealed — albeit unwittingly, it would seem, by authors who probably have no idea of its significance. Pointing to that same meeting mentioned in the Washington Post article, in which Mr Trump was persuaded to expel 60 diplomats, here is the NYT’s account of what took place:

“During the discussion, Ms. Haspel, then deputy C.I.A. director, turned toward Mr. Trump. She outlined possible responses in a quiet but firm voice, then leaned forward and told the president that the “strong option” was to expel 60 diplomats.

To persuade Mr. Trump, according to people briefed on the conversation, officials including Ms. Haspel also tried to show him that Mr. Skripal and his daughter were not the only victims of Russia’s attack.

Ms. Haspel showed pictures the British government had supplied her of young children hospitalized after being sickened by the Novichok nerve agent that poisoned the Skripals. She then showed a photograph of ducks that British officials said were inadvertently killed by the sloppy work of the Russian operatives [my emphasis].”

If you’re late joining the party, and don’t understand what is so extraordinary about this, let me spell it out plainly and unambiguously:

Firstly, there were no dead ducks as a result of poisoning. None. Zilch. Nada!

Secondly, there were no children sickened by nerve agent. None. Zilch. Nada!

Yet even though there were no dead ducks, and no sick children, Mr Trump was apparently persuaded by the head of the CIA to expel 60 diplomats after being shown pictures of dead ducks and sick children.

In addition to the extraordinary nature of this revelation, there is also a huge irony here. Along with many others, I have long felt that the duck feed is one of the many achilles heels of the whole story we’ve been presented with about what happened in Salisbury on 4th March 2018. And the reason for this is precisely because if it were true, there would indeed have been dead ducks and sick children.

According to the official story, Mr Skripal and his daughter became contaminated with “Novichok” by touching the handle of his front door at some point between 13:00 and 13:30 that afternoon. A few minutes later (13:45), they were filmed on CCTV camera feeding ducks, and handing bread to three local boys, one of whom ate a piece. After this they went to Zizzis, where they apparently so contaminated the table they sat at, that it had to be incinerated.

You see the problem? According to the official story, ducks should have died. According to the official story children should have become contaminated and ended up in hospital. Yet as it happens, no ducks died, and no boys got sick (all that happened was that the boys’ parents were contacted two weeks later by police, the boys were sent for tests, and they were given the all clear).

And yet despite the fact that no ducks died and no children were made sick, the director of the CIA (a.k.a. the Canard Invention Association), allegedly using information given to her agency by the British Government, showed the President of the United States pictures of dead ducks and sick children, apparently from Salisbury, to persuade him to take extreme action (Note: You can read more about the duck feed and all the other holes in the official story here). In other words, Mr Trump was lied to, and in a big way, and with potentially huge consequences.

I have no reason to doubt the authenticity of the claims made in the New York Times piece, since the purpose of inserting the bit about the ducks and the children was to cast Gina Haspel as a strong leader, rather than to cast doubt on the Skripal story. My guess is that Mr Trump might be quite interested to know that he was misled, either by the director of the CIA and/or the British Government. It might even make him wonder this: if no less a person than the President of the United States was given a false version of events, what are the chances that the rest of the story stacks up?

As ever, someone got some ‘splaining to do.  Discuss among yourselves.

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PS. An aside. The Independent, which is apparently a publisher of news, has picked up on this storyhere. In their piece, they basically repeat what was said in the New York Times about how Gina Haspel persuaded Mr Trump using the dead ducks and sick children pics. But here’s the thing. Whilst it doesn’t surprise me that writers in the likes of the Washington Post or New York Times might not know too many details regarding the Salisbury case, the Independent knows full well that there were no dead ducks and no sick children. And so since they are writing about it, they must know that either the CIA director or the British Government, or both, knowingly misled the US President. Yet they say nothing about this in their piece. Why? Simply because they are not journalists, but stenographers, and they have no intention of informing their readers of what is true and what is real. I’m not sure how they live with themselves, but somehow they manage.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2ICNUe0 Tyler Durden

The British, Australian, Ecuadorian and US Governments have made an ad about Julian Assange’s arrest and it’s surprisingly honest and informative!

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2GlD2OV Tyler Durden

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

These are not matters solely of politics and finance; they are manifestations of the elite war on the identity of France.

As rationalists, we’re supposed to take the dramatic and profoundly tragic fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris as random chance or bad luck. But I cannot be the only one who feels a symbolic tie between the near-destruction of a French religious and cultural icon and the embattled identity of France.

As it happens, I am reading Fernand Braudel’s massive two-volume history The Identity of France: Volume One: History and Environment and Volume Two: People and Production.

Longtime readers know I have often recommended Braudel’s three-volume history, Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century, as essential to the understanding of the rise of Capitalism in Europe:

The Structures of Everyday Life (Volume 1)

The Wheels of Commerce (Volume 2)

The Perspective of the World (Volume 3)

The Chinese famously view natural disasters and similar events as portents of political change, as disasters suggest the Emperor/ruling elite has lost the Mandate of Heaven. It is difficult not to see the disastrous fire in Notre Dame as just such a portent.

For the identity of France is under assault on a number of fronts. The left-leaning status quo has set up a false duality: one either worships multiculturalism and rejects a national identity as the sworn enemy of multiculturalism, or one is a rightist racist. Thus anyone who even refers to a national identity of France is quickly vilified and marginalized.

This is of course a false choice: one can value multiculturalism as an essential part of a national identity without sacrificing the entire notion of a national identity.

As Braudel notes at the end of Volume Two, France has long been ruled by tiny elites. A mere 242 financiers held contracts to collect taxes for the monarchy in the early 1700s; Braudel notes that “La Haute Banque in Paris, during the Restoration and later, consisted of a mere 25 families.”

In the highly centralized political power structure of today’s France, the leadership–from Macron down– are all graduates of a few select universities. Like Macron, the leadership was selected early and quickly advanced over lesser elites.

Globalized, hyper-financialized elitist Capitalism, so dependent on cheap immigrant labor for its servants, has left “deep France” behind, stripped of economic and political power, and relegated to dependency on the welfare state in rural regions (only the favored few and those with state-subsidized housing can afford to live in Paris).

These are not matters solely of politics and finance; they are manifestations of the elite war on the identity of France, to transform it into a bland, globalized hierarchy in which capital and power benefit the few, a system enforced by state propaganda and public virtue-signaling.

To quote Slavoj Žižek:

“The yellow vests movement fits the specific French Left tradition of large public protests targeting the political, more than the business or financial, elites. However, in contrast to the 68’ protests, the yellow vests are much more a movement of France profonde (‘deep France’), its revolt against big metropolitan areas, which means that its Leftist orientation is much more blurred.”

Here is Andrew Joyce (On Yellow Vests and Monsters):

“Amidst the sea of evasions, disavowals, and contradictions, it remains the case that the White working class has been abandoned by both the Old Right and the Left. In some cases, the White working class is the reason for the same evasions, disavowals, and contradictions: they are an uncomfortable, and now more visible, reminder of broken promises and unfulfilled obligations.

Guilluy adds that ‘the economic divide between peripheral France and the metropolises illustrates the separation of an elite and its popular hinterland. Western elites have gradually forgotten a people they no longer see. The impact of the gilets jaunes, and their support in public opinion (eight out of 10 French people approve of their actions), has amazed politicians, trade unions and academics, as if they have discovered a new tribe in the Amazon.’

I disagree that visibility, presented in passive terms, is the key issue here. In fact, I believe a better analogy would be that of an Amazonian tribe that had been systematically targeted for extinction, and was assumed to have been incapable of mustering any kind of resurgence.

We shouldn’t forget that it became common practice on the Left to pretend the White working class didn’t exist, and that it was also viewed as explicitly oppositional on the Left and among cosmopolitan elites to offer the White working class, as an ethno-economic group, any kind of material or ideological support.”

Lastly, here is Christophe Guilluy, author of Twilight of the Elites: Prosperity, the Periphery, and the Future of France:

Employment and wealth have become more and more concentrated in the big cities. The deindustrialised regions, rural areas, small and medium-size towns are less and less dynamic. But it is in these places – in peripheral France (one could also talk of peripheral America or peripheral Britain) – that many working-class people live. Thus, for the first time, “workers” no longer live in areas where employment is created, giving rise to a social and cultural shock. … The globalised metropolises are the new citadels of the 21st century – rich and unequal, where even the former lower-middle class no longer has a place. Instead, large global cities work on a dual dynamic: gentrification and immigration. This is the paradox: the open society results in a world increasingly closed to the majority of working people.”

The corporate media, a key defender of the self-serving elite, will reject any symbolism in the near-destruction of Notre Dame. But deep down, many sense what cannot be spoken openly: the elites in France have lost the Mandate of Heaven.

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I just added a new benefit for all subscribers/patrons: a monthly Q&A where I respond to your questions/topics. You get other exclusive benefits with a $1, $5 or $10/month patronage via patreon.com.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2GhvzAx Tyler Durden

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy) unveiled a tactical laser system with a striking resemblance to a solid-state laser system tested by the US Navy in 2014, according to The Maritime Executive. 

Appearing in a promotional video broadcast by state-owned channel CCTV, Beijing’s new laser can be deployed on both land and sea, and can be used for both close-in surface-to-surface combat and air defenses. According to CCTV, the laser could be mounted on the PLA Navy’s Type 055 destroyers as an alternative to the HHQ-10 surface-to-air missile. 

As The Maritime Executive notes, Beijing’s system looks limilar to the US Navy’s XN-1 LaWS system that was tested on the USS Ponce in 2014. The Navy reported that the system worked as designed against low-end asymmetric threats, and can be used at low power to dazzle enemies. At higher power it can fry sensors, burn out motors and detonate explosive materials. During one test, a UAV was able to shot down in as little as two seconds. 

This is just the latest in China’s laser technology. In April, satellite photos revealed that Beijing has what appears to be a sophisticated anti-satellite laser base in Western China. 

The satellite images were published by Indian Army Col. Vinayak Bhat, whose expertise is often widely cited in western media reports, and show a base with advanced satellite tracking capabilities and facilities which house large-scale lasers located about 145 miles south of the Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang.

A full report featuring the satellite imagery was published by the Washington Free Beacon which concluded alarmingly, “China likely is pursuing laser weapons to disrupt, degrade or damage sat­ellites and their sensors and possibly already has a limited capability to employ laser systems against satellite sensors.”

The Xinjiang base is one of those laser bases that include four main buildings with sliding roofs that Bhat assesses contain high-powered chemical lasers powered by neodymium.

Bhat estimates that the smaller shed with the sliding roof is a laser tracker. Taken together, the Chinese can fire one to three of the lasers against an orbiting satellite that China is seeking to disrupt.

Giving credence to the claim, the report cites the US Defense Intelligence Agency which said in its own assessment published in February that China is set to deploy a ground based laser cannon at some point next year. 

#China #space denial weapons.#PLA has deployed #DEW & #HEL to dazzle/disable/destroy satellites.#EMP & mobile pulse generators being experimented.#RISAT1 & #GSAT6A still fresh in mind.
Read more:
Need to harden own equipment.https://t.co/5csGt75rwG pic.twitter.com/04jFLwEpxK

— 卫纳夜格@Raj (@rajfortyseven) March 23, 2019

 Meanwhile, last July we reported that China has a “laser AK-47” which its manufacturer claimed could set fire to a target from almost one kilometer away (.62 miles). After naysayers doubted the gun’s capabilities, the South China Morning Post featured a test video in response to the critics. 

The company says the filmed test was not conducted at maximum range, citing “safety reasons, to avoid anyone accidentally walking into the beam” — as the beam is invisible and the device without sound, various objects are shown igniting, including clothing and even a tire. 

A company spokesman cited by the SCMP said “And after an upgrade it will be the world’s most advanced laser cannon – it will be able to take down a drone several kilometres away.”

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2IsGLOi Tyler Durden