Reason Live from DNC: Nick Gillespie, Matt Welch, Matthew Dowd

Join Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch as they talk #DemsInPhilly with political consultant and ABC News analyst Matthew Dowd about how the wheels are coming off the two-party system as we know it.

Live from the DNC floor at 7:30PM ET right here and on Facebook!

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Raoul Pal: “The Era Of Doing Nothing And Getting Paid For It Is Over”

Submitted by Chris at Capitalist Exploits,

Today’s podcast is a little different. I speak with Raoul Pal and we cover a number of topics, running from one to another as they crop up. I hope you’ll enjoy it as much as I always enjoy speaking with Raoul.

For those of you who’ve never heard of Raoul – he is first and foremost one of the most congenial, open minded, and thoughtful guys you could ever have the pleasure of discussing the truly mind boggling and fascinating world of global macroeconomics with.

He’s also a world renowned global macro investor, an investment strategist, economic historian, traveler, rum drinker, and co-founder of Real Vision TV, together with Grant Williams who I spoke with some time ago.

Here’s some of the topics Raoul and I cover in the podcast:

  • The end of financialization of the economy. The era of doing nothing and get paid for it is over. Why Raoul thinks that’s a good thing (especially if you’re an entrepreneur) and he also lays out the way to profit from it.
  • Why markets around the world are so fragile today and why the investment environment is so dangerous, especially for less liquid investments.
  • Helicopter money – as Raoul said, “We’re getting there, it just depends which format we’re going to get.”
  • Why debt is like 700 beers (plus Raoul’s take on the possibility of a debt jubilee).
  • Which chart is showing one of the biggest head and shoulders tops in history.
  • How Raoul looks at Bitcoin and why he thinks Bitcoin has a huge runway (but with one important caveat)… and why – on the other side – he doesn’t see a lot more runway left in startup investing, or as Raoul calls it, “lottery ticket investing”.
  • Why venture capital is, in fact, in a “terrifying situation”.
  • And much more.

Like 6 other investing superstars, Raoul is also bullish on gold. I think it’s one of the easiest and safest bets in today’s macro environment.

“What I do know is that we’re talking about the end of the financialisation of the economy, and that’s a good thing.” – Raoul Pal

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Maybe Putin Did It After All: Trail Emerges Linking DNC Email Hack To Russia

So far we have taken the widely propagated “scapegoat” theory that the DNC email hack came from Russia as an amusing sideshow meant to distract from the real question at hand: after all, with Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s resignation, she confirmed that it is not who released the emails that was critical, but what was in them.

And yet, now that the damage has been done, the question emerges: was Putin behind it after all? After all, we proposed this very possibility in early May in “You Know Those Missing Hillary Emails? Russia Might Leak 20,000 Of Them” and then again in mid-June in “Russia Is Reportedly Set To Release Clinton’s Intercepted Emails” even though the alleged hacker – and the person who admittedly originally leaked the Wikileaks email trove- was the self-identified Romanian hacker Guccifer 2.0.

This afternoon, an analysis has emerged that suggests the Kremlin may indeed have had a role to play in the resignation of the DNC chairwoman, and the hectic, at time chaotic first day of the Democratic National Convenation.

As The Hill writes, emails sent by Guccifer 2.0 to The Hill show evidence that the hacker used Russian-language anonymity software — a language he has claimed he could not read or even recognize. The news comes amid mounting reports linking Guccifer 2.0’s hack of Democratic National Committee (DNC) emails to Russian intelligence.

Guccifer 2.0 communicates with journalists using different disposable web-based email accounts each time. With The Hill, he communicated using addresses from ProtonMail and Mail.com.

To further protect his anonymity, he connected to the webmail accounts using a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Users send VPN servers the address of a site they would like to reach, and the VPN accesses it in their stead – masking the users’ internet addresses.

Metadata of emails sent from Guccifer 2.0 to The Hill was shared with the cybersecurity firm ThreatConnect. In the interest of protecting Guccifer 2.0’s identity, his account information was not included.

The Mail.com metadata includes the internet address of who is mailing outgoing messages — in Guccifer 2.0’s case, the VPN. 

Vocativ reported Tuesday that ThreatConnect had discovered the hacker used a predominantly-Russian-language VPN when he corresponded with them through a French AOL account. ThreatConnect matched that same internet address from the same VPN to the Mail.com email. 

VPNs often let users route their traffic through a variety of servers in a variety of countries. Guccifer 2.0 routed his traffic through a French internet address operated by the Elite VPN service.

But that French internet address was not available for public use – it was not one of the French servers Elite VPN allowed its clients to select. Instead, the French server appears to have only been used by a select, criminal clientele in the past, including text message scammers.

Elite VPN’s website is written in Russian, with links to English translations. Parts of the site, including graphics, are only written in Russian, and when ThreatConnect went through the process of signing up for an account, they found the signup process written entirely in Russian.

Guccifer 2.0 has long claimed to be Romanian. In an online chat interview with Motherboard, Guccifer 2.0 claimed not to know how to speak Russian. In it, Motherboard asked a question in Russian, and Guccifer replied “What’s this? Is it russian?”

The site then asked if he understood Russian.

“R u kidding?” wrote Guccifer 2.0.

In the same interview, when forced to answered questions in Romanian, he used such clunky grammar and terminology that experts believed he was using an online translator.

The two active payment services for Elite VPN are options that are popular in Russia, including the Moscow-based Web Money. The site also includes a link to a long-defunct Costa Rican payment processor that was seized by law enforcement in 2013.

There are other anonymity services besides VPNs — including Tor — and a large international community of other VPNs both better known and better esteemed than Elite VPN. But the Edward Snowden documents and recent investigations by U.S. law enforcement show a U.S. interest in cracking through the anonymity of these so-called proxy servers.

“They might be making sure they are leveraging proxy infrastructure within their own borders,” said Rich Barger, ThreatConnect director of threat intelligence.

The fact that Guccifer 2.0’s VPN is Russian is not the first indicator that Russia was involved in the attack on the DNC. The email hack leveraged the same tools, methods and command servers seen in other attacks linked to Russian intelligence, including on the German Parliament.

“The noose is tightening around Russia,” said Barger.

Guccifer 2.0 leaked a number of documents to the press, including convention strategies, donor information and opposition research. The first few packages of files were released to the public directly; the last two were first sent to The Hill. Guccifer has also claimed responsibility for leaking emails to WikiLeaks, something WikiLeaks refuses to confirm or deny.

* * *

To be sure all of the above is circumstantial and while we have no independent insight into any of the above, we are confident that now that the trail has grown “warm”, the FBI – which yesterday said that Russia is a prime suspect – will use this as a foundation upon which to build a case blaming the Kremlin for interfering in US politics.

Which then begs the question: just like in the case of Snowden whose “treasonous” act has made him into a cult hero for a great part of the US population due to his pursuit of government accountability, would a Russian hack – if confirmed – be seen as a hostile act, or – when considering the dramatic revelations – one of much needed transparency into corrupt US political practices.

And even if the FBI does find Putin as the gulty party, just how will the US respond? Will this be the first case of “cyberespionage” that escalates to some more conventional form of militaristic retaliation?

We are confident the wheels are already in motion, and the answer will be provided shortly.

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Is the DNC Hack “Worse Than Watergate”? Only if You’re a Democrat or a Gatekeeper Journalist

The hack of emails written by members of the Democratic National Committe (DNC) has produced a great deal of embarrassment so far (go here for a searchable database provided by Wikileaks). The cache of emails, especially ones in which DNC members bandy about the idea of attacking Bernie Sanders in some states for being both Jewish and an atheist, helped push DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schulz out the door and made it clear that the officially neutral organization was actively working against the candidacy of Bernie Sanders. Wikileaks’ founder Julian Assange has pronounced that there are more hacked emails to come from his group, including ones that will “provide enough evidence” to see Hillary Clinton arrested. Well, we’ll have to wait and see.

In the meantime, you can savor amuse-bouches such as this email in which DNC operatives toss around the idea of creating “a fake craigslist jobs post for women who want to apply to jobs one of Trump’s organizations“:

Seeking staff members for multiple positions in a large, New York-based corporation known for its real estate investments, fake universities, steaks, and wine. The boss has very strict standards for female employees, ranging from the women who take lunch orders (must be hot) to the women who oversee multi-million dollar construction projects (must maintain hotness demonstrated at time of hiring).

Title: Honey Bunch (that’s what the boss will call you)

Job requirements:

  • No gaining weight on the job (we’ll take some “before” pictures when you start to use later as evidence)
  • Must be open to public humiliation and open-press workouts if you do gain weight on the job
  • A willingness to evaluate other women’s hotness for the boss’ satisfaction is a plus
  • Should be proficient in lying about age if the boss thinks you’re too old Working mothers not preferred (the boss finds pumping breast milk disgusting, and worries they’re too focused on their children).

About us: We’re proud to maintain a “fun” and “friendly work environment, where the boss is always available to meet with his employees. Like it or not, he may greet you with a kiss on the lips or grope you under the meeting table.

Interested applicants should send resume, cover letter, and headshot to jobs@trump.com

This isn’t particularly clever or funny and it obviously doesn’t come close to rising to the level of, say, Project MK Ultra, the CIA’s secret mind-control experiments. But it’s all pretty foul stuff, especially the way in which the DNC was so clearly putting its thumb on the scale in the direction of Clinton. It’s exactly the sort of behavior that makes people think that—what’s that phrase that both Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren use? Oh yeah—”the system is rigged.” As it stands, faith and confidence in all aspects of government and a lot of other major American institutions are at or near historic lows. That isn’t because we are a particularly cynical bunch. It’s because we are privy to more information about the politicians, the performers, and the priests (among others) who seek to assert moral authority and control over us.

Lack of trust is the wages of transparency, but only if what’s revealed shows bad-faith or really rotten behavior. In fact, in this new(ish) age of transparency, people are by and large forgiving. For all the talk about how the Sony hack or the celebrity-nude pics hack would destroy everybody revealed in them, very little of that happened as a result.

But the general lack of vengeance on the part of the public is matched with pearl-cluting on the part of the media. Indeed, to date, the press has been far more interested in who created the DNC hack rather than what it contains. Despite the publicized role of a hacker called Guccifer 2.0, “all signs point to Russia.” Vladimir Putin, after all, is not just bromancing Donald Trump but has a longstanding dislike of Clinton stemming from her challenging the fairness of Russian elections years ago. Isn’t this all about Russia trying to throw a U.S. election one way or another?

Writing at Slate, for instance, Frankin Foer, the former editor of The New Republic, argues that 

The emails don’t get us much beyond a fact every sentient political observer could already see: Officials at the DNC, hired to work hand in glove with a seemingly inevitable nominee, were actively making life easier for Hillary Clinton. It didn’t take these leaks to understand that Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a hack and that the DNC should be far more neutral in presidential primaries.

What’s galling about the WikiLeaks dump is the way in which the organization has blurred the distinction between leaks and hacks. Leaks are an important tool of journalism and accountability. When an insider uncovers malfeasance, he brings information to the public in order to stop the wrongdoing. That’s not what happened here. The better analogy for these hacks is Watergate. To help win an election, the Russians broke into the virtual headquarters of the Democratic Party. The hackers installed the cyber-version of the bugging equipment that Nixon’s goons used—sitting on the DNC computers for a year, eavesdropping on everything, collecting as many scraps as possible. This is trespassing, it’s thievery, it’s a breathtaking transgression of privacy. It falls into that classic genre, the dirty trick. Yet that term feels too innocent to describe the offense. Nixon’s dirty tricksters didn’t mindlessly expose the private data of low-level staff.

“We should be appalled at the public broadcast of this minutiae,” writes Foer, and there I kind of agree with him. But to the extent that what’s revealed is minutiae, it will be forgotten or excused, even if it includes off-color humor and language. To the extent that the contents reveal more serious problems, they will remain relevant (and are relevant), regardless of the source. But there is something else at work in most media responses to the DNC hack, and Foer illustrates this too: Concern that Hillary Clinton, presumably the preferred candidate of many journalists, will lose to Donald Trump.

The DNC dump may not have revealed a conspiracy that could end a candidacy, but it succeeded in casting a pall of anxiety over this election. We know that the Russians have a further stash of documents from the DNC and another set of documents purloined from the Clinton Foundation. In other words, Vladimir Putin is now treating American democracy with the same respect he accords his own. The best retaliation isn’t a military one, or to respond in kind. It’s to defeat his pet candidate and to force him to watch the inauguration of the woman he so abhors.

Read the whole piece here.

For better or for worse, we live in a world where such hacks or leaks (one man’s leak is another man’s hack, I assume) will happen more and more frequently. That Hillary Clinton spent a lot of time creating a private server system and then misrepresenting what information passed through it will only heighten interest and flavor the interpretation of whatever information might come to light over the next few months.

Edward Snowden, whose character and motivation was attacked the minute his leaks become public, had a more thoughtful response. If Russia is responsible, he tweeted, it should be condemned for doing so. And, he said, if Russia was behind the hack, there’s no question that the NSA would know. “Evidence that could publicly attribute responsibility for the DNC hack certainly exists at #NSA, but DNI traditionally objects to sharing,” Politico reports.

And so secrecy begets secrecy, rather than transparency. Until our government and its actors start coming clean and actually changing their behaviors, it will be extremely difficult for them to gain back the trust they have lost over the past 15 or more years.

Related: Edward Snowden Interview on Apple vs. FBI, Privacy, the NSA, and More.

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Why Real Reform Is Impossible: We Can’t Believe The Mighty Titanic Could Actually Sink

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Unfortunately for those partying on the upper First Class decks, they are as doomed as the steerage passengers when the ship goes down.

Why did passengers remain on the Titanic even as its bow sank deeper into the ice-cold Atlantic? They believed the experts and authorities because they wanted to believe the ship was "unsinkable." And why did they want to believe the ship was "unsinkable"?

Two visceral realities fueled their misplaced faith in the ship's supposed safety:

1) The warm ship seemed so mighty, and the alternative–open lifeboats drifting in the dark cold night–seemed so vulnerable, uncomfortable and risky.

2) It was much easier to believe the experts' assurances that the ship was safe than it was to clamber into a small lifeboat and bob around the open Atlantic.

We all know which alternative turned out to be safe and which one was fatally unsafe. The apparently risky open lifeboats were the sole source of survival and the enormous, complex "unsinkable" ship sank, ending the lives of everyone who clung to the appealing fantasy that the mighty ship was too technologically advanced to sink.

We are all on a Titanic, a complex system that experts and authorities declare safe and unsinkable for all time. Our money, our government, our Social Security, our Medicare and our entire debt-based way of life is mighty and invulnerable. Those few who see the eventual need to prepare "risky" lifeboats are mocked and ridiculed.

But the status quo's bow is already sinking into the ice-cold waters of reality. The only way the status quo can support the debt-based financial system and government that funds all these vast systems is if the economy creates 10 million more "breadwinner" jobs (in David Stockman's definition, a job that earns enough to support a family of four) a decade.

These new jobs are needed to raise the additional $1 trillion per year in payroll and income taxes needed to keep the fiscal ship afloat, and to provide the household income needed to support trillions more in private-sector debt–new home mortgages, auto loans, student loans, credit card debt, etc.–that's needed to support consumption.

If the status quo can't create at least 10 million new breadwinner jobs a decade, it sinks just as surely as the Titanic, which was doomed the moment the fifth watertight compartment was ripped open by the iceberg.

And please don't tell me we can raise $1 trillion in new annual taxes by "taxing the owners of the robots," another "unsinkable" fantasy I dismantle in my books Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform and A Radically Beneficial World.

Now that software and robotics are commoditized, the scarcity value of these tools and the goods they produce is plummeting. Take a look at profits in commoditized goods: they're razor-thin, and getting thinner by the day. As the cost of software/automation tools drops, they become affordable to an ever-larger pool of owners/producers, which means the competition from new owners will increase until there is no profit at all.

And exactly how do you extract $1 trillion in phantom profits from "owners of robots" who happen to be overseas? The belief in "taxing the owners of robots" is identical to the doomed souls on board the Titanic believing the ship was unsinkable.

The belief in the status quo's permanence is exactly like the belief in the Titanic's invulnerability. The systems we depend on are so vast and seem so mighty, it doesn't seem possible that they could unravel and fail. But their eventual unraveling and failure are already baked in and cannot be undone by the modest tweaks of what passes for "reform" in the status quo.

The financial realities of systemically stagnant jobs, incomes and tax revenues have already ripped a fatal gash below the waterline of the status quo. The bow is sinking but the parties on the First Class deck continue. The passengers in steerage are getting anxious because they see the cold water sloshing around the lower decks, but few on the upper decks care what mere steerage passengers are experiencing.

Unfortunately for those partying on the upper First Class decks, they are as doomed as the steerage passengers when the ship goes down.

As the supposedly risk-free status quo decays, the supposedly "risky" lifeboats– decentralized private-sector arrangements of multiple income streams derived from ownership of productive assets that are debt-free and not dependent on debt-based government funding or global corporate cartels–will be cooperating and collaborating with each other.

Those seeking lifeboats will benefit from the Mobile Creative credo: trust your network, not the corporation or the state.

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Apple Surges After Beating Expectations, Despite Forecasting Third Straight Revenue Decline

While the plunge in Twitter share moments ago put those looking forward to AAPL’s earnings on edge, Tim Cook delivered, beating on both the top and bottom line, reporting Q3 revenue of $42.4 billion, which declined 15% but above the $42.1 billion expected as a result of better than expected iPhone sales, with the company selling 40.4 million units in the quarter, down 15% but also above the 39.9 million expected.

Helping the bulls, Apple said demand for the iPhone was getting stronger and that the decline in sales of its flagship device has passed the “low point”

Still, despite the beat Apple reported a decline in sales and profit lower by 27% Y/Y as a result of a 33% plunge in China sales, while forecasting a third straight quarterly revenue drop, dragged down by slowing demand for iPhones amid a lackluster global smartphone market and intensifying competition in China.

The result in a nutshell:

  • APPLE 3Q EPS $1.42, GAAP EPS EST. $1.39
  • APPLE 3Q REV. $42.4B, EST. $42.1B
  • APPLE SOLD 4.25M MACS IN 3Q, EST. 4.4M
  • APPLE SOLD 40.4M IPHONES IN 3Q, EST. 39.9M
  • APPLE 3Q IPHONE ASP $595.26, EST. ABOUT $606
  • APPLE SEES 4Q REV. $45.5B-$47.5B, EST. $45.5B
  • APPLE 3Q GREATER CHINA SALES $8.85B, VS $12.5B IN 2Q
  • APPLE 3Q AMERICAS SALES $17.96B, VS $19.1B IN 2Q

Key notes:

  • Fiscal third-quarter revenue fell 15 percent to $42.4 billion. Analysts had predicted revenue of $42.1 billion. The drop marked the first back-to-back quarterly sales declines since 2002. Revenue from greater China slumped 33 percent.
  • IPhone unit sales for the quarter fell 15 percent from a year earlier to 40.4 million. Still, that exceeded the average estimate of 39.9 million.
  • Fourth-quarter revenue will be $45.5 billion to $47.5 billion, the Cupertino, California-based company said Tuesday in a statement. On average, analysts projected $45.5 billion. A year earlier, sales were $51.5 billion.
  • Gross margin in the period that ends in September will be 37.5 percent to 38 percent.

Apple’s full guidance:

  • revenue between $45.5 billion and $47.5 billion: this would represent a third quarterly decline in revenues
  • gross margin between 37.5 percent and 38 percent
  • operating expenses between $6.05 billion and $6.15 billion
  • other income/(expense) of $350 million
  • tax rate of 25.5 percent

The Big Picture (via Bloomberg):

With the iPhone accounting for almost two-thirds of sales, Apple has felt the brunt of a slowdown in the global smartphone market. That’s been made worse by deterioration in China, where consumers are choosing cheaper handsets over Apple products – even the low-end iPhone SE introduced earlier this year. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has sought to emphasize surging revenue from services, such as the App Store, iCloud storage and Apple Music, as a way of making up for cooling device sales. Yet those businesses still represent just a fraction of revenue compared with the iPhone, which may not be significantly revamped until next year as consumers wait ever longer to upgrade their handsets.

* * *

Luca Maestri, chief financial officer, told the FT that Apple was able to clear more iPhone inventory than it had anticipated and that unit sales fell less than they had done in March, which he said had “turned out to be the low point for our cycle”. “Customer demand for our products was stronger than we had anticipated 90 days ago on a number of fronts.”

Revenues from the iPad also grew for the first time in many quarters, thanks to the higher-priced iPad Pro, although on a unit basis the tablet continued to decline.

* * *

What Tim Cook said in the earnings release:

“We are pleased to report third quarter results that reflect stronger customer demand and business performance than we anticipated at the start of the quarter,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We had a very successful launch of iPhone SE and we’re thrilled by customers’ and developers’ response to software and services we previewed at WWDC in June.”

“Our Services business grew 19 percent year-over-year and App Store revenue was the highest ever, as our installed base continued to grow and transacting customers hit an all-time record,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “We returned over $13 billion to investors through share repurchases and dividends, and we have now completed almost $177 billion of our $250 billion capital return program.”

And the quarter in charts.

Revenue:

 

Sales breakdown by product:

 

Sales by Geography:

 

Gross cash:

 

And net cash:

 

Finally, while last quarter the market threw up all over the company’s earnings, this time the kneejerk reaction has been favorable, pushing the stock over 5% higher. 


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Oil Extends Losses After Surprisingly Large Cushing Build

With all eyes now focused on Gasoline inventories, API's report surprised with a modest draw (-420k) but a considerablyless than expected draw in Crude (-827k vs -2mm exp) and major build at Cushing (+1.4mm vs 750k exp). Crude had faded into the close after testing stops at $43, and extended losses after the API data hit.

 

API

  • Crude -827k (-2mm exp)
  • Cushing +1.4mm (+750k exp)
  • Gasoline -420k
  • Distillates +292k

Overall crude extended its series of drawdowns to 10 weeks but Cushing's huge build is ringing alarm bells…

 

And the reaction, having tested stops above $43 before API data, WTI tumbled back toweards the lows of the day after API reported…

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Design Your Own American Party System!

This morning Bernie Sanders urged his followers not to vote for the Green Party’s presidential nominee. Speaking at a breakfast event in Philadelphia, the Vermont senator expressed respect for the Greens but argued that this election was a binary choice, The Washington Post reports.

“If we were in Europe right now, in Germany or elsewhere,” Sanders said, “the idea of coalition politics of different parties coming together—you’ve got a left party, you’ve got a center-left party, coming together against the center-right party—that’s not unusual. That happens every day. We don’t have that.”

What would this election look like if we did have a parliamentary system? It’s an interesting thought experiment, because it’s easy to imagine this as a five- or six-way race. You could have Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic Socialists and Hillary Clinton the New Democrats—the left and center-left parties that Sanders mentioned. The Libertarians would have Gary Johnson (or perhaps someone like Rand Paul, since he wouldn’t have as strong an incentive to present himself as a Republican). Donald Trump would have the old Perot and Buchanan voters, maybe in an America First Party. And the pre-Trump GOP would have a standard-bearer too, a Jeb Bush or a Ted Cruz. Or maybe the Bush Republicans and the Cruz Republicans would be separate operations. The upshot, in any event, is to imagine what it would be like if our political factions were more modular: Instead of struggling for influence and forming alliances within a party, they could compete for votes as parties themselves and then try to form a governing coalition after the election.

My point isn’t to make the case for or against such a system. It’s to imagine how those factions would align and disalign if they had that kind of flexibility. How well would each of those parties do, and what governing coalition might some of them form? Would the left and center-left align, as Sanders imagined, or would the New Democrats prefer to form a Bloombergian coalition with the Bush Republicans? Would the Bush Republicans outpoll the America Firsters, or would they be also-rans? Who would the Libertarians form a coalition with—or would they just refuse to join up with anyone else? And where do we put Jim Webb? Create your own scenario and post it in the comments.

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Twitter Plummets After Slashing Guidance

Miraculously managing to beat user growth expectations (313mm MAUs vs 312mm MAUs exp) and EPS (+13c vs +9c exp), Twitter stock is plummeting after-hours after slashing Q3 revenue (and EBITDA) guidance drastically (from $681.4m to between $590 and $610mm). TWTR is trading down 11% after-hours…

As Bloomberg reports, Twitter said third-quarter revenue will be less than analysts expected Tuesday, a sign it’s struggling to win more advertising dollars as user growth stagnates.

The company forecast third-quarter revenue of $590 million to $610 million. Analysts were looking for $681.4 million.

 

Monthly active users were 313 million in the second quarter, up from 310 million during the prior quarter. That beat the average analyst estimate for 312 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Second-quarter sales grew 20 percent to $602 million, compared with the $607 million estimated by analysts.

 

Profit, excluding some items, was 13 cents per share. Analysts forecast 9 cents on average.

So to summarize, Q2 mixed…

  • *TWITTER 2Q ADJ. EPS 13C, EST. 9C (BIG BEAT)
  • *TWITTER  2Q REV. $602M, EST. $607.0M (MISS)

  • *TWITTER 2Q MAUS 313M , EST. 312M (SMALL BEAT)

But Q3 guidance is a disaster…

  • *TWITTER SEES 3Q REV. $590M TO $610M, EST. $681.4M; SHARES FALL
  • *TWITTER SEES 3Q ADJ EBITDA $135M TO $150M, EST. $168.8M

And the reaction…

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