Online Criticism of Retirement Community + Picketing Lead to Ohio Criminal “Harassment” Prosecution

Gina Criscione is being prosecuted for “telecommunications harassment” and “menacing by stalking,” under Ohio’s extraordinarily broad laws. Her crime? Posting sharp criticism of a retirement community at which her mother died, and in particular a manager at the community; according to the harassment complaint, she “did knowingly post several text and video/audio messages to a social media website with the purpose to harass and annoy” the manager. She also picketed outside the community (and apparently once drove on the grounds of the retirement community, I assume in the parking lot).

Our invaluable local counsel Jeffrey M. Nye and I (with the help of UCLA School of Law student Skyler Ross) have filed an amicus brief, on behalf of Profs. Jonathan Entin, Andrew Geronimo, and Ray Ku (Case Western), Profs. David Forte, Stephen Lazarus, and Kevin O’Neill (Cleveland-Marshall), and me, supporting a motion to dismiss. (Thanks, as always, to Scott & Cyan Banister for their support of the UCLA First Amendment Clinic.)

We think the relevant part of the statutes are unconstitutionally overbroad, and also unconstitutional as applied. Whether Criscione could have been prosecuted for simple trespassing, setting aside her constitutionally protected commentary and picketing, is a separate matter: The menacing-by-stalking charge that mentions the trespassing also relies on Criscione’s “knowingly engag[ing] in a pattern of conduct with purpose to cause mental distress by posting multiple negative messages to a website,” and is thus not limited to the alleged trespassing.

Summary of Argument

[1.] The telecommunications harassment statute and menacing by stalking statute are unconstitutionally overbroad:

  • The telecommunications harassment statute bars knowingly posting anything “on an internet … web page for the purpose of abusing, threatening, or harassing another person,” R.C. 2917.21(B)(2)—criminalizing any online statement that is seen as being ill-intentioned.
  • The menacing by stalking statute bars people from making multiple posts online if they know that their pattern of conduct would cause another “mental distress” (or, possibly, would cause another to believe that future conduct will cause mental distress), R.C. 2903.211(A)(1)-(2).

These statutes criminalize a substantial amount of protected speech, including speech on matters of public concern. They could, for instance, expose a person to criminal liability for repeatedly ridiculing a local community leader based on a political position the leader has taken—though such a prosecution would violate the First Amendment, see Rynearson v. Ferguson, 355 F.Supp.3d 964, 972 (W.D. Wash. 2019). Moreover, even speech on matters of private concern is protected by the First Amendment. See Bey v. Rasawehr, __ N.E.3d __, 2020-Ohio-3301, ¶ 59.

Unlike traditional telephone harassment statutes, these statutes are not limited to unwanted speech said to an unwilling listener—speech that can in some situations be properly restricted, regardless of its subject matter. Rather, they extend even to critical public expression of opinions or true statements of fact about a person, which is generally constitutionally protected.

[2.] The statutes are not saved by their mens rea requirements. Even if speakers are “motivated by hatred or ill-will,” their speech on matters of public concern is still protected by the First Amendment. Bey, 2020-Ohio-3301, ¶ 59. And Bey makes clear that the same is true of speech on matters of private concern. Id. There is no First Amendment exception for discomforting or upsetting speech made to the public, even if the speech is made with bad intent or with knowledge that some will find it disturbing.

[3.] The telecommunications harassment and menacing by stalking statutes are thus facially unconstitutional—but they are also unconstitutional as applied as well. Ms. Criscione spoke publicly on her personal social media page and while picketing on a public sidewalk. She criticized a healthcare organization and its employees for what she perceived as poor job performance. Statements regarding the “quality of … medical care” involve “a public issue of community concern.” Mucci v. Dayton Newspapers, Inc., 71 Ohio Misc. 2d 71, 75, 654 N.E.2d 1068 (Ct. Com. Pl. 1995). Yet Ms. Criscione is being prosecuted for her statements anyway.

[4.]  Since these statutes criminalize speech based on its content, they are unconstitutional unless they pass strict scrutiny. This they cannot do. Even if there is a compelling governmental interest in protecting people from abuse, harassment, and mental distress, barring a broad range of public criticism cannot be narrowly tailored to serve that interest. See Snyder v. Phelps, 562 U.S. 443, 458-59, 131 S.Ct. 1207, 179 L.Ed.2d 172 (2011) (holding that even outrageous speech that causes emotional distress is still constitutionally protected).

East Park and its employees might prevail in a defamation lawsuit against Ms. Criscione, if they can prove that her allegations are false. But Ohio cannot constitutionally prosecute Ms. Criscione for such criticism under the state’s tele­communica­tions harassment and menacing by stalking statutes, which require no showing of libelous falsehood. These charges should therefore be dismissed.

Argument

[A.] The Telecommunications Harassment and Menacing by Stalking Statutes Are Unconstitutionally Overbroad

In a facial overbreadth challenge, a plaintiff “must show that [a statute’s] potential application reaches a significant amount of protected activity.” City of Akron v. Rowland, 67 Ohio St. 3d 374, 387, 618 N.E.2d 138 (1993). Criminal statutes are unconstitutionally overbroad if they are “susceptible of regular application to protected expression” “even if they also have legitimate application.” Id. (internal citations omitted). The telecommunications harassment and menacing by stalking statutes are facially overbroad, because they criminalize much political and personal commentary of the sort that is routine when people discuss matters that outrage or greatly concern them.

[1.] The telecommunications harassment and menacing by stalking statutes are alarmingly broad speech restrictions

The telecommunications harassment statute, R.C. 2917.21(B)(2), states:

No person shall knowingly post a text or audio statement or an image on an internet web site or web page for the purpose of abusing, threatening, or harassing another person.

It excludes persons who are “employed or contracted by a newspaper, magazine, press association, news agency, news wire service, cable channel or cable operator, or radio or television station” and speaking as part of their jobs, R.C. 2917.21(F); but that exception covers only a tiny fraction of all Ohioans.

Ohio courts have understood “abuse” to be a synonym for “mistreat,” and “harass” to mean “to annoy or torment repeatedly and persistently.” See, e.g., State v. Dennis, 3d Dist. Allen No. 1-97-42, 1997 WL 691448, *2 (Oct. 30, 1997) (reading “purpose of being abusive, threatening, annoying, or harassing” as meaning a “purpose to mistreat another person, to express a threat to another person, to irritate another, or to persistently torment”); State v. Dart, 2d Dist. Montgomery No. 23955, 2010-Ohio-5637, at 9 (defining “harass” as “to annoy or torment repeatedly and persistently”).

The menacing by stalking statute, R.C. 2903.211(A)(2), reads:

No person, through the use of any form of written communication or any electronic method of remotely transferring information … shall post a message or use any intentionally written or verbal graphic gesture with purpose to … violate division (A)(1) of this section.

R.C. 2903.211(A)(1), in turn, provides:

No person by engaging in a pattern of conduct shall knowingly cause another person to believe that the offender will cause physical harm to the other person … or cause mental distress to the other person ….

The statute defines “mental distress” as “[a]ny mental illness or condition that involves some temporary substantial incapacity,” R.C. 2903.211(D)(2)(a), or that “would normally require psychiatric treatment, psychological treatment, or other mental health services,” R.C. 2903.211(D)(2)(b). The statute (in R.C. 2903.211(A)(2)) also restricts speech about people’s employers, since people’s mental distress may flow from,

words or conduct of the offender that are directed at or identify a corporation, association, or other organization that employs the other person or to which the other person belongs.

Under both of these statutes, public posts critical of government officials or other important figures could be criminally punished if they are seen as being made with the requisite intents. For example, the statutes encompass harsh ridicule or parody of public figures, which are clearly protected forms of expression. See Hustler Magazine, Inc. v. Falwell, 485 U.S. 46, 55­-56, 108 S.Ct. 876, 99 L.Ed.2d 41 (1988) (holding that a public figure cannot sue for intentional infliction of emotional distress resulting from a parody because the parody is protected speech). A blogger who repeatedly ridicules a local community leader for a political position the leader took, for instance, could face prosecution under these statutes—even though “speech uttered or typed with the intent to embarrass a person … is protected speech.” Rynearson, 355 F.Supp.3d at 972 (striking down the Washington criminal harassment statute).

The statutes also cover speech about private figures on matters of private concern. Imagine a woman breaks up with an unfaithful boyfriend, and repeatedly posts on her Facebook page her real feelings about him. A prosecutor could conclude that the woman posted her Facebook message intending to “abuse” her ex-boyfriend or cause him “mental distress.” Yet such speech about the details of one’s daily life is constitutionally protected. Even “[w]holly neutral futilities” that lack political, artistic, or similar value are “still sheltered from government regulation.” United States v. Stevens, 559 U.S. 460, 479-480, 130 S.Ct. 1577, 176 L.Ed.2d 435 (2010) (internal citation omitted).

[The court’s] role … is not to pass judgment on the … First Amendment value of [a speaker’s] allegations. To the extent [the speaker’s] statements involve matters of both private and public concern, we cannot discount the First Amendment protection afforded to that expression. We most assuredly have no license to recognize some new category of unprotected speech [referring to private-concern speech] based on its supposed value.

Bey v. Rasawehr, __ N.E.3d __, 2020-Ohio-3301, ¶ 59.

These statutes are also not limited to speech directed to an unwilling listener. Traditionally, criminal harassment laws covered speech directed to a particular and unwilling recipient—for instance, telephone calls, letters sent to a particular home, or e-mails sent to a particular person. For that reason, the Supreme Court upheld a federal law forbidding people from sending certain material to others once the recipients have told senders to stop: “no one has a right to press even ‘good’ ideas on an unwilling recipient.” Rowan v. U.S. Post Office Dep’t, 397 U.S. 728, 738, 90 S.Ct. 1484, 25 L.Ed.2d 736 (1970); cf. Frisby v. Schultz, 487 U.S. 474, 486, 108 S.Ct. 2495, 101 L.Ed.2d 420 (1988) (upholding a ban on targeted residential picketing, because such picketing “is narrowly directed at the household, not the public,” and is thus “fundamentally different from more generally directed means of communication that may not be completely banned”). Similarly, Ohio has banned unwanted e-mails or telephone calls after the recipient has told the speaker to stop. R.C. 2913.01(X), 2917.21(A)(5).

But while “attempting to stop the flow of information into [one’s] own household” (speech to a person) is constitutional, trying to block criticism of a person said “to the public” (speech about a person)—as the statutes here do—violates the First Amendment. Organization for a Better Austin v. Keefe, 402 U.S. 415, 420, 91 S.Ct. 1575, 29 L.Ed.2d 1 (1971) (distinguishing Rowan on this basis); see also David v. Textor, 189 So.3d 871, 876 (Fla. Ct. App. 2016) (setting aside an injunction against speech on First Amendment grounds because, “The injunction prevents not only communications to Textor, but also communications about Textor.”).

The telecommunications harassment and menacing by stalking statutes are thus “criminal prohibition[s] of alarming breadth,” Stevens, 559 U.S. at 474. They potentially punish a vast range of harsh rhetoric so long as a prosecutor can persuade the factfinder that the speaker had a supposedly culpable mental state.

[2.] The telecommunications harassment statute is not saved by its requirement of bad purpose

The telecommunications harassment statute prohibits making a post on the Internet “for the purpose of abusing, threatening, or harassing another person.” R.C. 2917.21(B)(2). “The critical inquiry of telecommunications harassment is … whether the purpose of the [speaker] was to abuse, threaten or harass [another].” State v. Kronenberg, 8th Dist. Cuyahoga No. 101403, 2015-Ohio-1020, ¶ 15.

Yet a “speaker’s motivation” is generally “entirely irrelevant to the question of constitutional protection.” Fed. Election Comm’n v. Wis. Right to Life, Inc., 551 U.S. 449, 468, 127 S.Ct. 2652, 168 L.Ed.2d 329 (2007) (Roberts, C.J., joined by Alito, J.) (citation omitted); id. at 495 (Scalia, J., concurring in part and concurring in the judgment) (likewise rejecting a test based on speaker motivation).

Thus, in Garrison v. Louisiana, 379 U.S. 64, 78, 85 S.Ct. 209, 13 L.Ed.2d 125 (1964), the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the view that even truthful reputation-injuring speech could be punished because of the speaker’s allegedly bad motives, such as a “wanton desire to injure.” “If upon a lawful occasion for making a publication, [a speaker] has published the truth, and no more, there is no sound principle which can make him liable, even if he was actuated by express malice.” Id. at 73 (internal quotation marks and citation omitted). Likewise, in Hustler Magazine, the Court overturned an intentional infliction of emotional distress verdict, concluding that a bad motive does not strip speech of constitutional protection. 485 U.S. at 53. And in Snyder v. Phelps, 562 U.S. 443, 458, 131 S.Ct. 1207, 179 L.Ed.2d 172 (2011), the Court applied this principle to speech about private figures as well as public figures.

The Ohio Supreme Court has also rejected a motives-based test for speech protection. Even if speakers are “motivated by hatred or ill-will,” their speech on matters of public concern is still protected. Bey, Slip Op. No. 2020-Ohio-3301, ¶ 58. And, as discussed above, Bey makes clear that the same is true for speech without regard to its perceived value or public significance. Id. ¶ 59.

“Bad intent” requirements have not saved statutes similar to Ohio’s. For instance, a federal district court struck down a Washington law that prohibited “[a]nonymously or repeatedly” making electronic communications “with intent to harass, intimidate, torment, or embarrass any other person.” Rynearson, 355 F.Supp.3d at 969, 972. Similarly, the New York Court of Appeals struck down a cyberbullying statute that prohibited “electronic communications that are meant to ‘harass, annoy … taunt … [or] humiliate’ any person or entity.” People v. Marquan M., 19 N.E.3d 480, 486 (N.Y. 2014). Though the statutes in those cases only applied to speech made with a hostile intent, they were still facially unconstitutional.

The U.S. Supreme Court has given two reasons for holding that a speaker’s purpose does not generally strip speech of First Amendment protection. First, speech remains valuable even if its motives may be unsavory. “[E]ven if [a speaker] did speak out of hatred, utterances honestly believed contribute to the free interchange of ideas and the ascertainment of truth.” Garrison, 379 U.S. at 73.

Second, restricting speech based on its bad motive risks chilling even well-motivated speech. “Debate on public issues will not be uninhibited if the speaker must run the risk that it will be proved in court that he spoke out of hatred … .” Id. “No reasonable speaker would choose to [speak] if its only defense to a criminal prosecution would be that its motives were pure. An intent-based standard blankets with uncertainty whatever may be said, and offers no security for free discussion.” Wis. Right to Life, 551 U.S. at 468 (Roberts, C.J., joined by Alito, J.) (internal quotation marks omitted). “First Amendment freedoms need breathing space to survive,” and “[a]n intent test provides none.” Id. at 468-69 (citations omitted). Any effort to distinguish restricted speech from unrestricted speech “based on intent of the speaker … would offer no security for free discussion, and would compel the speaker to hedge and trim.” Id. at 495 (Scalia, J., concurring in part and concurring in the judgment, joined by Kennedy and Thomas, JJ.) (cleaned up).

Thus, in cases like this one, where a consumer criticized the performance of a company and its employee, a bad intent test risks chilling speech. Consumers often speak about a business after having bad experiences. When they do so, their motive often includes the legitimate desire to alert other consumers to the business’s poor performance.

Even if that motive is mixed with some form of intent to get back at the business, consumers should be free to speak without inquisition into their specific motives—or else they would be more likely to “hedge and trim,” or avoid criticizing the business altogether. The statutes therefore “offer[] no security for free discussion” and provide little “breathing space” for online speech that is critical of others.

[3.] The menacing-by-stalking statute is not saved by its requirement of knowledge

R.C. 2903.211(A)(1) provides that, “No person by engaging in a pattern of conduct shall knowingly cause another person to believe that the offender will cause physical harm to the other person … or cause mental distress to the other person” (emphasis added). This clearly requires a showing only of “knowledge,” not “purpose”—but “knowledge of what”? “A conflict exists among the appellate districts regarding whether R.C. 2903.211(A)(1) requires that the victim actually experienced mental distress or whether the victim’s belief that the stalker will cause him or her mental distress is sufficient.” Fondessy v. Simon, 142 Ohio St.3d 147, 2014-Ohio-4638, 28 N.E.3d 1202, ¶¶ 16-18 (Kennedy, J., dissenting, joined by French & O’Neill, JJ.). The first reading of the statute would prohibit “knowingly … caus[ing] mental distress.” The second would prohibit “knowingly caus[ing] another person to believe that the offender will … cause mental distress.” Id. ¶¶ 19-20 (Kennedy, J., dissenting, joined by French & O’Neill, JJ.).

But under either interpretation, the “mental distress” part of the statute would cover a substantial amount of constitutionally protected speech. Much constitutionally protected speech knowingly causes mental distress to its subject, or causes the subject to believe that more such distressing speech is coming:

  • Accurately publicly accusing someone of committing a crime would qualify, if said more than once (so that the statements are a “course of conduct”).
  • Accurately publicly accusing someone of sexual harassment would as well.
  • Accurately informing friends, for instance on a Facebook page, that one’s spouse has been unfaithful may well knowingly cause mental distress to the spouse.
  • Accurately informing fellow community members that someone is refusing to comply with a popular boycott, or with a strike, and may thus be seen by some as a traitor to one’s community. See NAACP v. Claiborne Hardware Co., 458 U.S. 886, 904, 910, 102 S.Ct. 3409, 73 L.Ed.2d 1215 (1982) (holding that such speech about black citizens who declined to comply with an NAACP-sponsored boycott of white-owned businesses is constitutionally protected, even though the speech may have led to some violent attacks on such citizens).
  • The same is true of harsh public insults, including of public figures, for instance if the material in Hustler Magazine were published online. (It had indeed been published more than once, 485 U.S., at 49 n.1, so that would qualify as a “course of conduct.”)
  • The mental distress would be magnified if the accusations come in online newspaper columns or in other publications with a large circulation. Unlike the tele­communications harassment statute, the menacing by stalking statute has no exception for professional journalists.

People would naturally be extremely upset if their past misconduct has been publicly revealed; they might well become depressed, which is a “mental … condition that would normally require … mental health services.” R.C. 2903.211(D)(2)(b). In Hustler Magazine, Jerry Falwell testified that he had indeed been extremely “hurt” by the public scurrilous attack on his character. Falwell v. Flynt, 797 F.2d 1270, 1276 (4th Cir. 1986), rev’d, 485 U.S. 46, 108 S.Ct. 876, 99 L.Ed.2d 41 (1988). Yet all the speech listed above would be constitutionally protected, for the reasons given in preceding sections.

Likewise, even ordinary constitutionally protected consumer criticism risks violating the menacing by stalking statute, if the statute is interpreted to cover Ms. Criscione’s speech. A person who makes multiple social media posts harshly critical of goods or services may well be “aware that the person’s conduct will probably cause” business owners to suffer mental distress, or to believe that the speaker will cause them mental distress by future posts.

[4.] Since the statutes restrict protected speech based on its content, they must be judged under strict scrutiny, which they cannot pass

The statutes therefore restrict a substantial amount of protected speech. They do so based on the content of the speech, and are thus unconstitutionally overbroad unless they pass “strict scrutiny.”

The government generally “has no power to restrict expression because of its message, its ideas, its subject matter, or its content.” Reed v. Town of Gilbert, 576 U.S. 155, 163, 135 S.Ct. 2218, 192 L.Ed.2d 236 (2015) (citation omitted). A restriction is content-based when “enforcement authorities” must “examine the content of the message that is conveyed to determine” if a criminal statute bars the message. McCullen v. Coakley, 573 U.S. 464, 479, 134 S.Ct. 2518, 189 L.Ed.2d 502 (2014) (internal citation marks omitted). “Some facial distinctions based on a message are obvious, defining regulated speech by particular subject matter, and others are more subtle, defining regulated speech by its function or purpose. Both are distinctions drawn based on the message a speaker conveys, and, therefore, are subject to strict scrutiny.” Reed, 576 U.S. at 163-64 (emphasis added).

The telecommunications harassment statute criminalizes speech that is intended to “abuse” or “harass.” “[E]nforcement authorities” cannot apply these statutes without examining the “function or purpose” of the speech, so the statutes are content-based. See People v. Releford, 104 N.E.3d 341, 350-51 (Ill. 2017) (holding that a statute criminalizing speech that could reasonably cause emotional distress is a content-based speech restriction). Likewise, the menacing by stalking statute criminalizes speech that the speaker knows will cause others “mental distress” (or perhaps speech that will cause others to believe that they will experience “mental distress”)—and the speech, as in this very case, may be potentially distressing precisely “based on the message [the] speaker conveys.” “[T]he emotive impact of speech on its audience is not a ‘secondary effect’ unrelated to the content of the expression itself.” Texas v. Johnson, 491 U.S. 397, 412, 109 S.Ct. 2533, 105 L.Ed.2d 342 (1989) (internal citation omitted). Restrictions that target speech based on such “emotive impact” are content-based. Id.

The telecommunications harassment and menacing by stalking statutes are thus subject to strict scrutiny. They are “presumptively unconstitutional” unless they are “narrowly tailored to serve compelling state interests.” Reed, 576 U.S. at 163. Only in a “rare case” would such a restriction “survive[] strict scrutiny.” Bey v. Rasawehr, __ N.E.3d __, 2020-Ohio-3301, ¶ 52 (quoting Flood v. Wilk, 125 N.E.3d 1114, 1116-17, 430 Ill.Dec. 96 (2019)); Susan B. Anthony List v. Driehaus, 814 F.3d 466, 474 (6th Cir. 2016). Yet there is no compelling state interest in forbidding almost all online speech (as opposed to, say, just threatening speech) that is seen as having a hostile motive or that is seen as highly distressing.

Moreover, these statutes are far from narrowly tailored, because they restrict a broad range of speech that falls far beyond any recognized First Amendment exception. They bar speech about people or their employers so long as the prosecutor and the jury conclude the speaker had a hostile intention or knew the speech would cause “mental distress.” Indeed, the telecommunications harassment statute is not even limited to situations where the subject of the speech is aware of the ill-intentioned statement. See State v. Bishop, 787 S.E.2d 814, 820, 368 N.C. 869 (N.C. 2016) (reasoning that an anti-cyberbullying statute did not satisfy strict scrutiny in part because the statute did not require that the victim suffer an injury or even know about the speech).

[B.] The Telecommunications Harassment and Menacing by Stalking Statutes are Unconstitutional as Applied

The telecommunications harassment and menacing by stalking statutes are not merely facially unconstitutional; they are unconstitutional as applied as well. Ms. Criscione’s public speech about how East Park Retirement Community supposedly treated her mother is fully protected by the First Amendment (except to the extent that someone can prove it to be false and defamatory in a libel lawsuit).

Ms. Criscione was criticizing the job performance of a health care organization and its employees. Statements about the “quality of … medical care” involve “a public issue of community concern.” Mucci v. Dayton Newspapers, Inc., 71 Ohio Misc. 2d 71, 75, 654 N.E.2d 1068 (Ct. Com. Pl. 1995); see also Lippincott v. Whisenhunt, 462 S.W.3d 507, 510 (Tex. 2015) (“the provision of medical services by a health care professional constitutes a matter of public concern”); St. Margaret Mercy Healthcare Ctrs., Inc. v. Ho, 663 N.E.2d 1220, 1224 (Ind. App. 1996) (“the fitness of a particular professional healthcare provider is a matter of legitimate public concern”).

More broadly, statements by consumers about the quality of goods or services are also on matters of public concern. See, e.g., Wilbanks v. Wolk, 121 Cal.App.4th 883, 900 (2004) (holding that warnings to avoid a financial professional’s services are “directly connected to an issue of public concern”); Abrams v. Sanson, 458 P.3d 1062, 1066, 136 Nev. 83 (2020) (holding that a statement about a lawyer’s courtroom conduct was on a matter of public concern because “it serves as a warning to both potential and current clients looking to hire or retain the lawyer”); Obsidian Finance Grp., LLC v. Cox, 740 F.3d 1284, 1292 (9th Cir. 2014) (giving “a business owner’s refusal to give a refund to a customer who bought an allegedly defective product” as an example of speech on “a matter of public concern”); id. (likewise as to “claim that a mobile home park operator charged excessive rent”).

If Ms. Criscione were being prosecuted for speaking directly to a particular person, after that person had told her to stop, this would be a different case; likewise, if she were being prosecuted for true threats of illegal conduct. But this case involves fully protected speech: consumer complaints conveyed to the public. Even if Ms. Criscione knew that her posts would cause East Park or its employees “mental distress,” or if she knew that her posts would cause East Park or item employees to believe that she would cause them “mental distress,” or if she was in part actuated by a desire to mistreat or to persistently annoy, her public speech would remain constitutionally protected.

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Trump Slams “Fake News” NYT Report That Pence Said He ‘Lacks Authority’ To Change Election Result

Trump Slams “Fake News” NYT Report That Pence Said He ‘Lacks Authority’ To Change Election Result

President Trump claimed in a Tuesday night statement that he and Vice President Mike Pence are in “total agreement” on Pence’s authority to alter the outcome of the 2020 election, refuting an anonymously sourced report in the New York Times claiming that Pence told Trump he didn’t believe he had the power to do so.

“The New York Times report regarding comments Vice President Pence supposedly made to me today is fake news. He never said that. The Vice President and I are in total agreement that the Vice President has the power to act.

Trump continued, claiming that the November election was “corrupt in contested states, and in particular it was not in accordance with the Constitution in that they made large scale changes to election rules and regulations as dictated by local judges and politicians, not by state legislators. This means it was illegal.”

The president then laid out several options Pence has under the constitution; “He can decertify the results or send them back to the states for change and certification. He can also decertify the illegal and corrupt results and send them to the House of Representatives for one vote for one state tabulation.”

Earlier in the day, Trump tweeted that Pence “has the power to reject fraudulently chosen electors.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/06/2021 – 07:55

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China Finds 63 COVID Cases, Orders First Lockdown In Hebei Since June; EU Approves Moderna Vaccine: Live Updates

China Finds 63 COVID Cases, Orders First Lockdown In Hebei Since June; EU Approves Moderna Vaccine: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Hebei on lockdown
  • EU regulator approves Moderna vaccine
  • China sees biggest outbreak since June
  • 63 new cases found in Hebei
  • Tokyo reports new record
  • Japan state of emergency coming
  • Serbia starts giving “Sputnik V”
  • Iran records 82 deaths
  • Israel tightens lockdown

* * *

Just as the American press (including, notably, the NYT) was praising China’s heavy handed response to the original outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, public health officials in Hebei, a province in northern China near Beijing, have imposed the first lockdown there since the summer after 60+ new cases were confirmed in a single day.

Authorities in the northern province of Hebei confirmed 63 new local infections on Tuesday, the highest daily tally in months. It prompted China’s CDC to raise the alarm warning about a new outbreak. Among the confirmed cases, 19 were reported in the provincial capital of Shijiazhuang and one was found in the city of Xingtai, both about 300 kilomryrtd (or 186 miles) southwest of Beijing.

Of those cases, Hebei confirmed that 20 were locally transmitted while 43 were asymptomatic. The province hasn’t recorded any locally transmitted infections since June.

The latest flareup in China arrives as Americans are preoccupied with the Georgia Senate runoff, and myriad other human rights-related issues in China, like the systemic abuse of Uyghurs from China’s far-flung Xinjiang Province. Typically, Chinese media insinuates that flareups like this are caused by contaminated packaging on imported foods, like meat and seafood (outbreaks at meatpacking plants have been disastrously common not just in the US, but in Europe, Asia and South America as well).

According to a report in a local paper, Ma Xiaowei, the director of the National Health Commission, was sent by Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan to Hebei to direct the province’s “warlike” operations to suppress the virus. Media reports claime the province was facing lockdown conditions.

“Right now, Hebei faces a serious situation to get the pandemic under control and our responsibilities are heavy,” Ma was quoted as saying while presiding over a meeting with Hebei government officials on Tuesday.

Passenger train service to Shijiazhuang, the largest city in the province, has already been suspended, and Ma stressed the need to step up control over population movement to ensure people from high-risk zones in Shijiazhuang didn’t leave and mix with those from low-risk zones. Hebei Communist Party secretary Wang Dongfeng said on Tuesday the province had locked down key villages and neighbourhoods to “effectively prevent the spread of the pandemic” and safeguard neighbouring Beijing.

The first identified case of the outbreak was a 61-year-old woman in Xiaoguozhuan who was confirmed infected on January 2. It is not known how she contracted the virus.

Elsewhere in Asia, Tokyo reported just under 1.6K new cases, a new record, as authorities prepare to declare a state of emergency that would include not just Tokyo, but neighboring Chiba, Kanagawa and Saitama prefectures.

Starting on Friday, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government will ask restaurants and bars to close by 2000 local time, shortening business by two hours compared to the current request.

Back in the US, as a backlog of COVID cases confirmed over the holidays starts to unwind, new cases are moving back above 200K/day.

Thanks in large part to California, the American west is currently the hardest hit region as far.

Here’s a breakdown of the other big COVID news from overnight and Wednesday morning:

  • Serbia started giving Sputnik V vaccines on Wednesday, almost two weeks after immunizations began with Pfizer-BioNTech shots on Dec. 24 (Source: Bloomberg).
  • Iran recorded 82 fatalities in the last 24 hours, it lowest daily toll since June 13, which raised the total to 55,830. The number of known infections rose by 6,283 to 1.26 million, the Health Ministry reported (Source: Bloomberg).
  • Ireland recorded 921 virus hospitalizations on Wednesday, exceeding the first-wave peak of 881. The government is set to lay out extra restrictions later in the day, including the closure of most construction sites and schools for a month, adding to what’s already one of the toughest lockdowns in Western Europe (Source: Bloomberg).
  • Israel will tighten lockdown restrictions in a bid to reverse a spike in infections as vaccine supplies dwindle. The cabinet voted to close all schools and non-essential businesses for two weeks, beginning midnight Thursday. Airline travel will be permitted only for those who purchased tickets before (Source: Bloomberg).

Finally, in Europe, Germany saw its daily confirmed deaths top 1K for only the second time, and the EU’s drug regulator, the European Medicines Agency, has just approved Moderna’s COVID vaccine for emergency use.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/06/2021 – 07:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3olFWbh Tyler Durden

Why One Bank Is Optimistic On The COVID Vaccine Rollout

Why One Bank Is Optimistic On The COVID Vaccine Rollout

If 2020 was the year of covid, 2021 will be the year of the covid vaccine according to Bank of America. And, as such, the year will revolve around the success of vaccines, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid writes in his Chart of the Day note just back from vacation and fully recharged.

Yet despite some rather substantial problems in the early rollout of vaccines, both as a result of logistical and supply issues as well as lack of faith among the general public in the hastily created concoction, Reid writes that he is relatively optimistic on the roll-out, and notes that one of the reasons for said optimism is that “logistically many countries are set up to administer the flu shot and that take up is pretty high for those over 65.”

So, you should have the framework and infrastructure already in place in several countries. This is easier with vaccines like the  xford/AZN one which can be stored in a standard fridge in a similar way to the flu jab. Supply might initially be more of a binding constraint than logistics.

In his first Chart of the Day for 2021, Reid shows the % of the over 65 year olds in many countries receiving the flu jab in the last available year of data (up to 2019). Korea, UK and US top the list with EU countries lagging a little but with most above 50%.

Meanwhile, last night UK PM Boris Johnson suggested that the new lockdown could be lifted in some form in mid-February with around 14 million in vulnerable groups hopefully inoculated by then. While at first glance this sounds highly ambitious and in reality probably is, Reid observes that the UK administered around 15 million flu jabs in the 2019/20 flu season (albeit over a few months).

However, given the urgency of the situation relative to the normal flu season, the DB credit strategist says that “it doesn’t seem a complete logistical mountain to climb to get close to the goal.” As a point of reference, the strategist notes that “the US vaccinated over 160 million people in the 2019/20 flu season across all age groups.

His conclusion, while “there is a large mountain to climb but we climb smaller ones every year with a minimum of fuss.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/06/2021 – 07:00

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CalPERS Searching For A CIO Who Can Handle “Appearances on CNBC”

CalPERS Searching For A CIO Who Can Handle “Appearances on CNBC”

Apparently investing acumen isn’t the first thing CalPERS is considering while searching for a new CIO who is going to be tasked with making “at least 7% a year” on an annualized basis.

Instead, the selection committee who is looking for a new CIO is looking for – and we swear we are not making this up – “a CIO who is comfortable handling national media interviews, such as appearances on CNBC”. 

 

That quick glance into the priorities of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System is courtesy of Chief Investment Officer magazine, who reported that it was “unlikely” a new CIO would be chosen to oversee investments in January:

CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost said she wants a CIO who is comfortable handling national media interviews, such as appearances on CNBC, and who has extensive investment knowledge.

“The CalPERS CIO holds a public job in the public spotlight, and all the candidates we’re talking with know that,” she said in a statement. “They also know that we’re focused on hiring an expert investor who can skillfully guide our global portfolio and help us deliver the retirement security our members have earned.”

Because if you can handle the intellectual titans that will be interviewing you on CNBC, you’re likely more than qualified to make 7% annually. 

The pension fund has 4 finalists for the position, however, according to the report. The process is ongoing and two more meetings will be held in January to hopefully move closer to a selection. The position is going to pay $2.4 million per year, if performance bonuses are met.

The fund has had 6 CIOs in the last two decades and Frost hopes to pick someone that will stick around for the longer term. Former CIO Ben Meng resigned after the announcement of a state ethics investigation that came as a result of Meng overseeing a $1 billion investment into a private equity fund run by Blackstone – while he owned stock in the firm. 

“In the fiscal year that ended June 30, CalPERS returned only 4.7%, but the portfolio performed better than its benchmark, which returned 4.3%,” CIO wrote. The CalPERS pension plan is about $440 billion and is only about 70% funded. It covers 2 million workers in California. 

J.J. Jelincic, a retired CalPERS investment officer, said: “Getting through the next few years will be rough.”

The fund sometimes faces problems deploying capital due to its large size. “For more than three years, CalPERS officials have studied a plan to create a separate private equity investment corporation as a way to deploy more funds without relying on private equity general partners. But the plan was never implemented and is on hold until the new CIO is named,” the report says. 

With the plan in such dire straits, maybe Marcie Frost should just consider hiring a CNBC anchor right off the network to oversee the fund’s $440 billion. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/06/2021 – 06:30

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What 2020’s Equity Volatility Says For 2021

What 2020’s Equity Volatility Says For 2021

Submitted by DataTrek Research

US equities are off to a rocky start to 2021 after an especially volatile 2020, which is exactly why we count the number of trading sessions when the S&P 500 moves more than 1 percent up or down (like Monday). This is our fundamental benchmark of how much investors “feel” volatility, as any one-day move greater than 1 pct to the upside or downside is +1 standard deviation from the S&P’s mean daily return back to 1958.

For example, while there is typically one +/-1 pct day/week in normal times, the S&P rose or fell by 1 pct or more on 110 trading days in 2020. That accounted for almost half (43 percent) of trading days last year and marked the fifth most volatile year in the past 6 decades by this measure. Here is the final tally for 2020’s count on a quarterly and annual basis:

  • Q1 2020: 30 one percent days versus the Q1 average of 13 since 1958 (first full year of data).

  • Q2 2020: 38 one percent days compared to the Q2 average of 13.

  • Q3 2020: 21 one percent days versus the Q3 average of 13.

  • Q4 2020: 21 one percent days versus the Q4 average of 14.

  • 2020 overall: 110 one percent days, more than double the whole-year average of 54 over the last 6 decades.

The upshot: the S&P has registered 100 or more “plus-one percent days” seven times including the just-completed year over the past +6 decades, or only 11 percent of the time. Therefore, let’s look at what happens in the first quarter relative to returns and volatility after these rare years of elevated equity market churn.

Here are the results, clustered into 3 periods:

Period #1:

1974 (115 one percent days total, -25.9 pct total return):

  • Q1 1975: +21.6 pct on a price basis, 25 one percent days

Comment: This particularly volatile year came after 1973’s poor performance for the S&P when it fell by 14.3 pct amid the Saudi Oil Embargo and resultant energy crisis.

Period #2:

2000 (103 one percent days, -9.0 pct total return):

  • Q1 2001: -12.1 pct, 29 one percent days

2001 (107 one percent days, -11.9 pct total return):

  • Q1 2002: -0.1 pct, 19 one percent days

2002 (126 one percent days, -22.0 pct total return):

  • Q1 2003: -3.6 pct, 31 one percent days

Comment: a slew of shocks that were both economic (Dot Com Bubble Burst) and geopolitical (domestic terror attack and international oil shock) created sharply negative returns and magnified volatility for three consecutive years in the early 2000s.

Period #3:

2008 (134 one percent days, -36.6 pct total return):

  • Q1 2009: -11.7 pct, 41 one percent days

2009 (118 one percent days, +25.9 pct total return):

  • Q1 2010: +4.9 pct, 15 one percent days

Comment: a delayed fiscal policy response to the Financial Crisis contributed to especially high volatility in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009. The Federal government did not pass the landmark recovery bill ARRA until February 2009, one month before the market troughed.

Takeaway: the average performance of the S&P 500 in the first quarter following the 6 years with especially volatile returns (+100 one percent days) was negative 0.2 pct, but the dispersion of returns was wide (anywhere from negative 12.1 pct in Q1 2001 to positive 21.6 pct in Q1 1975). Volatility also remained elevated, registering an average of 27 one percent days or about double the Q1 average of 13 over the last +6 decades.

As for what all this means for Q1 2021, we are seeing above-average volatility carry over into the New Year (totally normal), but the current setup is unique relative to the prior three periods we outlined. For example, we don’t know which party controls the Senate given 2021’s unusual Georgia runoff elections tomorrow. PredictIt.org – a website that allows users to place small-money wagers on various political outcomes – shows the odds of Republicans maintaining a majority in the Senate narrowed sharply this past weekend. Below is a graph for the contract: “What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 election?”

  • Odds for a Democratic House and Republican Senate are down to 52 pct as of today versus 62 pct just two days ago. They had been comfortably above 65 pct until the last few days.

  • Odds for a Democratic House and Democratic Senate are now up to 46 pct versus just 25 to 33 pct for most of December.

Bottom line (1): markets had been discounting a Republican majority in the Senate especially after the GOP unexpectedly gained new seats in the House during the November elections. While Democrats taking back the Senate could lead to more stimulus, it may also result in less business-friendly corporate/individual tax policy and regulation. This uncertainty is what largely contributed to the selloff to start the New Year today, and we expect more volatility ahead should markets have to adjust its expectations if Republicans lose the Senate in tomorrow’s elections.

Bottom line (2): US market history very clearly shows that volatility does not return to normal levels until long after a market crisis has occurred. We still expect 2021 to produce reasonable equity returns, but with what many might consider unreasonable volatility.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/06/2021 – 06:00

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