The Iranian Coup that Led to 67 Years of Reckless Intervention

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If you want to understand the past 70 years of U.S. foreign policy, look to the 1953 CIA- and MI6-backed coup in Iran that removed Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and brought back to power the Shah, an authoritarian dictator friendly to American and British interests.

In the new documentary Coup 53, director Taghi Amirani argues that this covert operation became the template for subsequent American interventionism all over the world, from Guatemala to Vietnam to Iraq. American diplomats and intelligence officers saw the coup as a fast, effective, and low-cost way to effect regime change. They didn’t anticipate that their interference would ultimately set the stage for an Islamic revolution and a repressive theocracy that rules Iran to this day.

In a wide-ranging conversation about filmmaking, foreign policy, and immigration, Amirani tells Nick Gillespie that he doesn’t think relations between the United States and Iran will get better any time soon, regardless of who wins the presidential election in November. Policy, he says, is “the product of the military-industrial complex and that, ultimately, matters more” than whatever a particular president thinks as he enters office.

Edited by John Osterhoudt. Intro graphics by Lex Villena.

Photos: akg-images/Newscom; AlfvanBeem/CC0; Maryam Zandi / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0); Gage Skidmore/Flickr; Pictures From History/Newscom; Pictures From History/Newscom; Arash Khamooshi/Polaris/Newscom; MARTIN FRIED/UPI/Newscom; GARY I ROTHSTEIN/UPI/Newscom; CHRIS KLEPONIS/UPI/Newscom; Yuri Gripas—Pool via CNP/Newscom

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The President’s and Senate’s Duties When a Supreme Court Vacancy Arises During an Election Year

A couple of dozen progressive constitutional law professors, including several very prominent ones, have written a letter that, taken seriously, means that President Trump has a constitutional duty to nominate a new Supreme Court Justice and the Senate has the duty to hold a floor vote this year. Here’s an excerpt from their argument:

Article II of the Constitution is explicit that the president “shall nominate . . . judges of the Supreme Court.” There is no exception to this provision for election years. Throughout American history, presidents have nominated individuals to fill vacancies during the last year of their terms. Likewise, the Senate’s constitutional duty to “advise and consent” – the process that has come to include hearings, committee votes, and floor votes – has no exception for election years…. We urge the President to nominate as soon as reasonably possible an individual to fill the vacancy existing on the Court and the Senate to hold hearings and vote on the nominee.

Of course, they wrote this in 2016, and almost certainly did not mean it to be taken seriously now that the shoe is on the other foot. But it might be worth asking them.

Note that the letter in question has mysteriously disappeared from the American Constitution Society’s website, but still can be found via the Wayback Machine.

UPDATE: Note: The argument in the letter regarding the Senate’s duty was silly when it was made, and it’s silly today, but any law professor who publicly makes a constitutional law argument when it benefits his “team” should be willing to stick by it when it benefits the other side. Yet I doubt that any of the signators will be publicly repeating this argument this Fall.

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After the Stimulus Binge, Brace for a Crash

apaart841010(1)

As anybody who has ever snorted a few lines of white powder to enhance an evening knows, there is a price to be paid for that artificial energy. The short-term boost is followed by a crash of longer duration. Well, America, get ready for a hell of a hangover. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the federal government’s recent stimulus spending—intended to offset the economic distress caused by voluntary social distancing and, especially, by mandatory lockdowns—is bound to be followed by an epic crash.

In a report published September 18, the CBO looks at the impact of four federal laws that are supposed to reduce the pain of social distancing as well as forced business closures and resulting job losses: the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2020; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. Those laws increased funding for federal agencies and for state and local governments, in addition to requiring employers to grant paid sick leave to employees, providing payments and tax credits to businesses and individuals, and offering loans and payments to businesses and health care providers to help keep them operating.

The idea was to keep America coasting as manufacturing, buying, and selling were sharply curtailed. But simulating economic prosperity in the absence of an economy is an expensive proposition.

Here’s how the CBO characterizes these stimulus laws’ effects on the U.S. economy:

Short-Term Effects. CBO estimates that the legislation will increase the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.7 percent in 2020 and 3.1 percent in 2021. From fiscal year 2020 through 2023, for every dollar that it adds to the deficit, the legislation is projected to increase GDP by about 59 cents.

Longer-Term Effects. By increasing debt as a percentage of GDP, the legislation is expected to raise borrowing costs, lower economic output, and reduce national income in the longer term.

The cost of this artificial boost—4.7 percent to GDP in 2020 and 3.1 percent in 2021—is $2.9 trillion in deficit spending over the same period, notes the CBO. The pandemic will pass, but we’ll be paying for government actions taken during this time for many years to come.

How much will we pay? “Federal budget deficits raise the ratio of federal debt to GDP from 79 percent in 2019 to 109 percent in 2030,” the CBO projects.

The growth of government debt to exceed the size of the entire economy for the first time since World War II was separately projected by the CBO earlier this month and is reiterated in the latest report.

In fact, deficits and debt may be worse than this report suggests. The CBO admitted in August that it tends to slightly overestimate government revenues. Lower revenues than anticipated will mean higher deficits unless government spending is reduced (don’t hold your breath). That adds up to higher debt pretty quickly.

Nothing in the CBO report is really a surprise, since experts all along have been pointing out that we’ll be paying for 2020’s spending binge for many years to come.

“All this needed borrowing will obviously have a profound consequence on the national debt,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and a supporter of federal stimulus spending, cautioned during July testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee. “In the short run, borrowing is exactly what we need to be doing; in the longer-run, the debt accumulation will have to be dealt with.”

“Unnecessary borrowing will just make it that much more difficult to get the national debt under control and stabilize our fiscal and economic future once this crisis has passed,” MacGuineas added.

Other commenters have been more ambivalent, at best, about the wisdom of the stimulus packages.

“The increases in federal expenditures and the reduction in government revenue are being financed almost exclusively by borrowing and will push the federal debt to $30 trillion sometime during 2021,” warned James D. Gwartney, a professor of economics and policy sciences at Florida State University. “Interest rates will inevitably rise at some point, and the additional interest cost will have to be covered by either higher taxes or money creation. The former will slow future economic growth, while the latter will be inflationary.”

The CBO obviously agrees that government debt is unlikely to be under control anytime soon and that economic output is likely to suffer. The recent report also notes that “higher debt—coming at a time when the longer-term path for debt was already high—could eventually increase the risk of a fiscal crisis or of less abrupt economic changes, such as higher inflation or the undermining of the U.S. dollar’s predominant role in global financial markets.”

That’s pretty gloomy stuff. But given years of cautionary language about debts and spending from the CBO, it may not even register on a jaded public. Among those paying attention, nasty economic consequences from rising deficits and debt were expected years before the pandemic and policy responses to the virus imposed new costs. How much more can people be expected to fret about a federal government that has long been addicted to spending far beyond its means?

The latest spending binge was irresistible for elected officials who need slight excuse for their compulsive behavior. “Airlifting cash into American households is one of those rare concepts that almost every politician can embrace,” Michael Grunwald commented at Politico back when pandemic stimulus schemes were first floated.

It’s a special occasion. What harm could one more line do, anyway?

America got its short-term boost from stimulus checks. We’ll have plenty of opportunity to decide in the years to come whether it was worth the inevitable comedown.

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The President’s and Senate’s Duties When a Supreme Court Vacancy Arises During an Election Year

A couple of dozen progressive constitutional law professors, including several very prominent ones, have written a letter that, taken seriously, means that President Trump has a constitutional duty to nominate a new Supreme Court Justice and the Senate has the duty to hold a floor vote this year. Here’s an excerpt from their argument:

Article II of the Constitution is explicit that the president “shall nominate . . . judges of the Supreme Court.” There is no exception to this provision for election years. Throughout American history, presidents have nominated individuals to fill vacancies during the last year of their terms. Likewise, the Senate’s constitutional duty to “advise and consent” – the process that has come to include hearings, committee votes, and floor votes – has no exception for election years…. We urge the President to nominate as soon as reasonably possible an individual to fill the vacancy existing on the Court and the Senate to hold hearings and vote on the nominee.

Of course, they wrote this in 2016, and almost certainly did not mean it to be taken seriously now that the shoe is on the other foot. But it might be worth asking them.

Note that the letter in question has mysteriously disappeared from the American Constitution Society’s website, but still can be found via the Wayback Machine.

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After the Stimulus Binge, Brace for a Crash

apaart841010(1)

As anybody who has ever snorted a few lines of white powder to enhance an evening knows, there is a price to be paid for that artificial energy. The short-term boost is followed by a crash of longer duration. Well, America, get ready for a hell of a hangover. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the federal government’s recent stimulus spending—intended to offset the economic distress caused by voluntary social distancing and, especially, by mandatory lockdowns—is bound to be followed by an epic crash.

In a report published September 18, the CBO looks at the impact of four federal laws that are supposed to reduce the pain of social distancing as well as forced business closures and resulting job losses: the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2020; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. Those laws increased funding for federal agencies and for state and local governments, in addition to requiring employers to grant paid sick leave to employees, providing payments and tax credits to businesses and individuals, and offering loans and payments to businesses and health care providers to help keep them operating.

The idea was to keep America coasting as manufacturing, buying, and selling were sharply curtailed. But simulating economic prosperity in the absence of an economy is an expensive proposition.

Here’s how the CBO characterizes these stimulus laws’ effects on the U.S. economy:

Short-Term Effects. CBO estimates that the legislation will increase the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.7 percent in 2020 and 3.1 percent in 2021. From fiscal year 2020 through 2023, for every dollar that it adds to the deficit, the legislation is projected to increase GDP by about 59 cents.

Longer-Term Effects. By increasing debt as a percentage of GDP, the legislation is expected to raise borrowing costs, lower economic output, and reduce national income in the longer term.

The cost of this artificial boost—4.7 percent to GDP in 2020 and 3.1 percent in 2021—is $2.9 trillion in deficit spending over the same period, notes the CBO. The pandemic will pass, but we’ll be paying for government actions taken during this time for many years to come.

How much will we pay? “Federal budget deficits raise the ratio of federal debt to GDP from 79 percent in 2019 to 109 percent in 2030,” the CBO projects.

The growth of government debt to exceed the size of the entire economy for the first time since World War II was separately projected by the CBO earlier this month and is reiterated in the latest report.

In fact, deficits and debt may be worse than this report suggests. The CBO admitted in August that it tends to slightly overestimate government revenues. Lower revenues than anticipated will mean higher deficits unless government spending is reduced (don’t hold your breath). That adds up to higher debt pretty quickly.

Nothing in the CBO report is really a surprise, since experts all along have been pointing out that we’ll be paying for 2020’s spending binge for many years to come.

“All this needed borrowing will obviously have a profound consequence on the national debt,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and a supporter of federal stimulus spending, cautioned during July testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee. “In the short run, borrowing is exactly what we need to be doing; in the longer-run, the debt accumulation will have to be dealt with.”

“Unnecessary borrowing will just make it that much more difficult to get the national debt under control and stabilize our fiscal and economic future once this crisis has passed,” MacGuineas added.

Other commenters have been more ambivalent, at best, about the wisdom of the stimulus packages.

“The increases in federal expenditures and the reduction in government revenue are being financed almost exclusively by borrowing and will push the federal debt to $30 trillion sometime during 2021,” warned James D. Gwartney, a professor of economics and policy sciences at Florida State University. “Interest rates will inevitably rise at some point, and the additional interest cost will have to be covered by either higher taxes or money creation. The former will slow future economic growth, while the latter will be inflationary.”

The CBO obviously agrees that government debt is unlikely to be under control anytime soon and that economic output is likely to suffer. The recent report also notes that “higher debt—coming at a time when the longer-term path for debt was already high—could eventually increase the risk of a fiscal crisis or of less abrupt economic changes, such as higher inflation or the undermining of the U.S. dollar’s predominant role in global financial markets.”

That’s pretty gloomy stuff. But given years of cautionary language about debts and spending from the CBO, it may not even register on a jaded public. Among those paying attention, nasty economic consequences from rising deficits and debt were expected years before the pandemic and policy responses to the virus imposed new costs. How much more can people be expected to fret about a federal government that has long been addicted to spending far beyond its means?

The latest spending binge was irresistible for elected officials who need slight excuse for their compulsive behavior. “Airlifting cash into American households is one of those rare concepts that almost every politician can embrace,” Michael Grunwald commented at Politico back when pandemic stimulus schemes were first floated.

It’s a special occasion. What harm could one more line do, anyway?

America got its short-term boost from stimulus checks. We’ll have plenty of opportunity to decide in the years to come whether it was worth the inevitable comedown.

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Half of Republicans Say New Justice Should Be Picked by Whoever Wins the Election

polspphotos721363

Democrats and Republicans think U.S. leaders should wait to confirm a new justice. In a poll conducted over the weekend by Reuters and Ipsos, 62 percent of respondents said that picking a Supreme Court justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg—who passed away on Friday—should be left to whoever wins the presidential election in November. This was the position of around 50 percent of the Republicans polled and 80 percent of the Democrats.

It is not the position of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has said the Senate will vote on a Trump replacement nominee by the end of the year.

“There are obvious incentives for the GOP to try to ram through a nominee before the clock might run out on the current president and Senate majority,” points out Ilya Somin at The Volokh Conspiracy. “If they succeed, they could transform the previous narrow 5–4 conservative majority on the Court into a much more secure 6–3 margin that could last for years to come.”

What do the chattering classes think should be done?

“President Trump should promptly nominate the late Justice Ginsburg’s successor, but Senators should delay a final vote on the nomination until after the election,” suggests Adam J. White at The Bulwark:

If Trump wins reelection, then his victory will secure not just the new justice’s appointment, but also her public legitimacy. And if Trump loses, then Senate Republicans and Democrats will have an opportunity to commit to not pack the Court, and thus to not destroy it.

It’s a plan so sensible that you know party bigwigs on both sides will hate it…

The Atlantic‘s Conor Friedersdorf muses about something a little more radical:

Charles C.W. Cooke wonders what all the fuss is about:

​​I must confess that, while I accept that the history is certainly on the side of filling it, I have never found this debate especially meaningful. As I wrote when Antonin Scalia died, this is an entirely straightforward question, the details of which are the same at all times within the cycle. In our system, the president gets to nominate a justice, and the Senate gets to decide whether to accept that nomination, to reject that nomination, or, if it likes, to completely ignore that nomination. This was true in 2016, and it is true now. The game requires both players. If they are both willing, the vacancy is filled. If one is not willing, the vacancy remains. And that, ultimately, is all there is to it.

Since Ginsburg’s death, two GOP senators—Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska—have said they think the decision should be left to whoever wins the election. The Senate currently has a 53–47 Republican majority.

“The looming fight over the Supreme Court vacancy so far does not appear to have given either of the two major political parties much of an advantage in an incendiary campaign season,” Reuters reports. In its recent poll with Ipsos,

30% of American adults said that Ginsburg’s death will make them more likely to vote for Biden while 25% said they were now more likely to support Trump. Another 38% said that it had no impact on their interest in voting, and the rest said they were not sure.

Ginsburg’s death has brought in a record amount of donations for Democrats.

“Democratic donors gave more money online in the 9 p.m. hour Friday after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death was announced—$6.2 million—than in any other single hour since ActBlue, the donation-processing site, was started 16 years ago,” reports The New York Times. “Then donors broke the site’s record again in the 10 p.m. hour when donors gave another $6.3 million—more than $100,000 per minute.”


FREE MARKETS

Donald Trump is still trying to milk the forced sale of TikTok to his own advantage. The president’s latest harebrained scheme on this front is to condition permission for the deal on compelling the company helping to pay for his new public-school propaganda initiatives.

More info on Trump’s proposal here. More info on the TikTok deal (now with Oracle and Walmart) here.

Meanwhile, a federal judge has temporarily blocked enforcement of Trump’s ban on the Tencent messaging app WeChat.


FREE MINDS

Don’t be too alarmed about a new study purportedly showing that airplanes are super-risky for catching COVID-19.

So far, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has “investigated 1,600 cases of people who flew while at risk of spreading the coronavirus,” notes The Washington Post. “But though the agency says some of those travelers subsequently fell ill, in the face of incomplete contact tracing information and a virus that incubates over several days, it has not been able to confirm a case of transmission on a plane.”

In other CDC news: At least several months after scientists, media, and the general public learned that COVID-19 is primarily spread through the air rather than infected surfaces, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is changing its COVID-19 guidance to reflect this.


QUICK HITS

• Virginia has wasted no time in stripping people of their Second Amendment rights since its new “red flag” law went into effect. “At least three dozen Virginia residents have been prohibited temporarily or permanently from having firearms or purchasing them based on a new state law letting courts decide they would be a danger to themselves or others,” reports the Associated Press.

• The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit “recently did something that is at once simple and radical,” says The Hill. The court “said the usual constitutional rules that apply to normal police all over the country also apply” to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

• Thailand sees more mass protests against the monarchy.

• The Emmys were on last night, and people won things.

• “The percentage of Americans who say they have heard ‘a lot’ or ‘a little’ about QAnon has roughly doubled” since March, reports the Pew Research Center of its latest poll findings. “Democrats are somewhat more likely to have heard at least a little about these theories than Republicans (55% versus 39%, respectively).”

• Five ways that Justice Ginsburg’s death will affect the Supreme Court before her successor is confirmed.

• A headline you probably didn’t expect to see at the start of the year: “DOJ Designates New York City as an ‘Anarchist Jurisdiction.'”

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via IFTTT

Half of Republicans Say New Justice Should Be Picked by Whoever Wins the Election

polspphotos721363

Democrats and Republicans think U.S. leaders should wait to confirm a new justice. In a poll conducted over the weekend by Reuters and Ipsos, 62 percent of respondents said that picking a Supreme Court justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg—who passed away on Friday—should be left to whoever wins the presidential election in November. This was the position of around 50 percent of the Republicans polled and 80 percent of the Democrats.

It is not the position of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has said the Senate will vote on a Trump replacement nominee by the end of the year.

“There are obvious incentives for the GOP to try to ram through a nominee before the clock might run out on the current president and Senate majority,” points out Ilya Somin at The Volokh Conspiracy. “If they succeed, they could transform the previous narrow 5–4 conservative majority on the Court into a much more secure 6–3 margin that could last for years to come.”

What do the chattering classes think should be done?

“President Trump should promptly nominate the late Justice Ginsburg’s successor, but Senators should delay a final vote on the nomination until after the election,” suggests Adam J. White at The Bulwark:

If Trump wins reelection, then his victory will secure not just the new justice’s appointment, but also her public legitimacy. And if Trump loses, then Senate Republicans and Democrats will have an opportunity to commit to not pack the Court, and thus to not destroy it.

It’s a plan so sensible that you know party bigwigs on both sides will hate it…

The Atlantic‘s Conor Friedersdorf muses about something a little more radical:

Charles C.W. Cooke wonders what all the fuss is about:

​​I must confess that, while I accept that the history is certainly on the side of filling it, I have never found this debate especially meaningful. As I wrote when Antonin Scalia died, this is an entirely straightforward question, the details of which are the same at all times within the cycle. In our system, the president gets to nominate a justice, and the Senate gets to decide whether to accept that nomination, to reject that nomination, or, if it likes, to completely ignore that nomination. This was true in 2016, and it is true now. The game requires both players. If they are both willing, the vacancy is filled. If one is not willing, the vacancy remains. And that, ultimately, is all there is to it.

Since Ginsburg’s death, two GOP senators—Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska—have said they think the decision should be left to whoever wins the election. The Senate currently has a 53–47 Republican majority.

“The looming fight over the Supreme Court vacancy so far does not appear to have given either of the two major political parties much of an advantage in an incendiary campaign season,” Reuters reports. In its recent poll with Ipsos,

30% of American adults said that Ginsburg’s death will make them more likely to vote for Biden while 25% said they were now more likely to support Trump. Another 38% said that it had no impact on their interest in voting, and the rest said they were not sure.

Ginsburg’s death has brought in a record amount of donations for Democrats.

“Democratic donors gave more money online in the 9 p.m. hour Friday after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death was announced—$6.2 million—than in any other single hour since ActBlue, the donation-processing site, was started 16 years ago,” reports The New York Times. “Then donors broke the site’s record again in the 10 p.m. hour when donors gave another $6.3 million—more than $100,000 per minute.”


FREE MARKETS

Donald Trump is still trying to milk the forced sale of TikTok to his own advantage. The president’s latest harebrained scheme on this front is to condition permission for the deal on compelling the company helping to pay for his new public-school propaganda initiatives.

More info on Trump’s proposal here. More info on the TikTok deal (now with Oracle and Walmart) here.

Meanwhile, a federal judge has temporarily blocked enforcement of Trump’s ban on the Tencent messaging app WeChat.


FREE MINDS

Don’t be too alarmed about a new study purportedly showing that airplanes are super-risky for catching COVID-19.

So far, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has “investigated 1,600 cases of people who flew while at risk of spreading the coronavirus,” notes The Washington Post. “But though the agency says some of those travelers subsequently fell ill, in the face of incomplete contact tracing information and a virus that incubates over several days, it has not been able to confirm a case of transmission on a plane.”

In other CDC news: At least several months after scientists, media, and the general public learned that COVID-19 is primarily spread through the air rather than infected surfaces, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is changing its COVID-19 guidance to reflect this.


QUICK HITS

• Virginia has wasted no time in stripping people of their Second Amendment rights since its new “red flag” law went into effect. “At least three dozen Virginia residents have been prohibited temporarily or permanently from having firearms or purchasing them based on a new state law letting courts decide they would be a danger to themselves or others,” reports the Associated Press.

• The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit “recently did something that is at once simple and radical,” says The Hill. The court “said the usual constitutional rules that apply to normal police all over the country also apply” to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

• Thailand sees more mass protests against the monarchy.

• The Emmys were on last night, and people won things.

• “The percentage of Americans who say they have heard ‘a lot’ or ‘a little’ about QAnon has roughly doubled” since March, reports the Pew Research Center of its latest poll findings. “Democrats are somewhat more likely to have heard at least a little about these theories than Republicans (55% versus 39%, respectively).”

• Five ways that Justice Ginsburg’s death will affect the Supreme Court before her successor is confirmed.

• A headline you probably didn’t expect to see at the start of the year: “DOJ Designates New York City as an ‘Anarchist Jurisdiction.'”

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via IFTTT

Joan Biskupic Recounts “20 Years Of Closed-Door Conversations” with RBG

Joan Biskupic has published a lengthy profile of her twenty-year relationship with Justice Ginsburg. It is titled, “20 years of closed-door conversations with Ruth Bader Ginsburg.” Much of the material appears in Joan’s excellent books and articles. But there were a few bits I don’t remember seeing before. I will highlight them here.

First, Joan last met with RBG in January 2020:

In my last one-on-one session in her chambers, in January 2020 as a fire crackled, she had more pressing health concerns on her mind: “I’m cancer free. That’s good.” A year earlier she had undergone lung cancer surgery and, a few months after that, had endured a second pancreatic cancer scare.

Does this statement mean Biskupic and Ginsburg were out of touch after January? Most of Joan’s post-Term reporting concern events that happened after January. Most, but not all. And there may have been sessions that were not in chambers–especially after COVID shut down the Court. We’ll see next year if Biskupic continues to publish leaks, even without RBG.

Second, Joan addresses a common complaint: RBG used the press to speak to her colleagues.

On occasion, readers questioned whether Ginsburg was trying to send a message to the other justices through me. I brushed off that suggestion. Ginsburg was able to speak her mind and skilled at persuasion. And she never knew for certain when anything she told me would be published.

I’m not so sure about the last part. Media savvy people know what the money quote will be. When I speak to a reporter, I can usually get a feel for what will, and will not be published. Ginsburg’s “faker” line, for example, was bound for the front pages.

Third, Biskupic offers these remarks about Kagan. I don’t recall seeing these precise phrasings before:

She also enjoyed watching Kagan spar rhetorically with Chief Justice John Roberts in the behind-the-scenes drafting process. Kagan “is just a delight,” Ginsburg told me, “and very solid on substance.”

Over the years, I noticed RBG praised Justice Kagan fairly often. But I can’t recall seeing frequent praise of Justice Sotomayor. In big cases, Kagan would be assigned the dissent, and not Sotomayor. I’m sure this sleight was noticed.

Fourth, we learn that Justice Ginsburg broke her ribs a second time in 2013. (She broke them the year before, during the ACA deliberations):

The physical resilience of Ginsburg, then 79, continued to amaze me. When I went to see her at the close of the next year’s session, in 2013, I offhandedly asked whether she had again fallen. I did not expect the answer I received.

“Yes, I fell,” she said. “It was almost identical” to what had happened a year earlier. “I knew immediately what it was this time. They wanted to send me to … the emergency room, and I said, no, absolutely not. … There’s nothing you could do. You just live on painkillers for awhile.”

I don’t believe this injury was disclosed to the public. In 2012, she also delayed in telling the public about her broken ribs.

Fifth, Joan recounts an episode when President Obama invited RBG to lunch in 2014. Was he trying to nudge her to retire?

In 2014, I received a tip that Obama had privately invited Ginsburg to lunch a few months earlier. I could not help but wonder whether Obama was exploring the possibility that she might soon retire. I asked the justice how their time together had gone….

Ginsburg rejected my questions about whether he might have been fishing for any sign, as they dined alone, of her retirement plans.

“I don’t think he was fishing,” she said.

When I asked why she thought he had invited her, she said, “Maybe to talk about the court. Maybe because he likes me. I like him.”

In November 2014, the Democrats would lose the Senate. Perhaps this was a move in advance of that election, such that Ginsburg’s replacement could have been picked over the Summer of 2014. At the time, the Democrats had a slim, 53 seat majority.

Biskupic does relay a delightful anecdote:

“They’ve got a very good chef at the White House,” Ginsburg began. “The problem for me is the President eats very fast. And I eat very slowly. I barely finished my first course when they brought the second. Then the President was done, and I realized that he had important things to do with his time.”

Nina Totenberg told a similar story in her profile:

Ruth loved food. She may have been 85 pounds soaking wet toward the end of her life, but she loved to eat. Slowly, very slowly. But God help you if you tried to take her plate way before she had eaten every last morsel of food on the plate.

Sixth, Biskupic relays some heart-felt comments from the wake of Justice Scalia’s passing.

“My first reaction was I was supposed to go first,” Ginsburg later told me. “I’m three years older. My second thought was, well, we all have to go sometimes.”

Referring to Scalia’s apparently dying in his sleep, she said, “It’s the best you can do.”

Apparently? Come on. Are we back to the Pillow Theory?

Seventh, RBG recounts a defeat from a 2011 CivPro case:

I told her that Scalia had once described her as “a tigress on civil procedure.”
“She has done more to shape the law in this field than any other justice on this court,” he had told me. “She will take a lawyer who is making a ridiculous argument and just shake him like a dog with a bone.”

“I wish he had listened to me more often,” Ginsburg responded during our January conversation.

She shuddered as she recounted a 2011 case in which, she said, Scalia and other conservatives had “picked up” enough votes to deprive her of a majority on a civil procedure issue. Before that case, she told me, “I was really on a roll.”

I scanned through the cases from OT 2010. My guess is J. McIntyre Machinery, Ltd. v. Nicastro. The court divided, sharply, about whether a consumer could sue a foreign manufacturer in state court over a product sold in the United States. Justice Kennedy wrote the plurality. Justice Ginsburg dissented, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Kagan.

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Joan Biskupic Recounts “20 Years Of Closed-Door Conversations” with RBG

Joan Biskupic has published a lengthy profile of her twenty-year relationship with Justice Ginsburg. It is titled, “20 years of closed-door conversations with Ruth Bader Ginsburg.” Much of the material appears in Joan’s excellent books and articles. But there were a few bits I don’t remember seeing before. I will highlight them here.

First, Joan last met with RBG in January 2020:

In my last one-on-one session in her chambers, in January 2020 as a fire crackled, she had more pressing health concerns on her mind: “I’m cancer free. That’s good.” A year earlier she had undergone lung cancer surgery and, a few months after that, had endured a second pancreatic cancer scare.

Does this statement mean Biskupic and Ginsburg were out of touch after January? Most of Joan’s post-Term reporting concern events that happened after January. Most, but not all. And there may have been sessions that were not in chambers–especially after COVID shut down the Court. We’ll see next year if Biskupic continues to publish leaks, even without RBG.

Second, Joan addresses a common complaint: RBG used the press to speak to her colleagues.

On occasion, readers questioned whether Ginsburg was trying to send a message to the other justices through me. I brushed off that suggestion. Ginsburg was able to speak her mind and skilled at persuasion. And she never knew for certain when anything she told me would be published.

I’m not so sure about the last part. Media savvy people know what the money quote will be. When I speak to a reporter, I can usually get a feel for what will, and will not be published. Ginsburg’s “faker” line, for example, was bound for the front pages.

Third, Biskupic offers these remarks about Kagan. I don’t recall seeing these precise phrasings before:

She also enjoyed watching Kagan spar rhetorically with Chief Justice John Roberts in the behind-the-scenes drafting process. Kagan “is just a delight,” Ginsburg told me, “and very solid on substance.”

Over the years, I noticed RBG praised Justice Kagan fairly often. But I can’t recall seeing frequent praise of Justice Sotomayor. In big cases, Kagan would be assigned the dissent, and not Sotomayor. I’m sure this sleight was noticed.

Fourth, we learn that Justice Ginsburg broke her ribs a second time in 2013. (She broke them the year before, during the ACA deliberations):

The physical resilience of Ginsburg, then 79, continued to amaze me. When I went to see her at the close of the next year’s session, in 2013, I offhandedly asked whether she had again fallen. I did not expect the answer I received.

“Yes, I fell,” she said. “It was almost identical” to what had happened a year earlier. “I knew immediately what it was this time. They wanted to send me to … the emergency room, and I said, no, absolutely not. … There’s nothing you could do. You just live on painkillers for awhile.”

I don’t believe this injury was disclosed to the public. In 2012, she also delayed in telling the public about her broken ribs.

Fifth, Joan recounts an episode when President Obama invited RBG to lunch in 2014. Was he trying to nudge her to retire?

In 2014, I received a tip that Obama had privately invited Ginsburg to lunch a few months earlier. I could not help but wonder whether Obama was exploring the possibility that she might soon retire. I asked the justice how their time together had gone….

Ginsburg rejected my questions about whether he might have been fishing for any sign, as they dined alone, of her retirement plans.

“I don’t think he was fishing,” she said.

When I asked why she thought he had invited her, she said, “Maybe to talk about the court. Maybe because he likes me. I like him.”

In November 2014, the Democrats would lose the Senate. Perhaps this was a move in advance of that election, such that Ginsburg’s replacement could have been picked over the Summer of 2014. At the time, the Democrats had a slim, 53 seat majority.

Biskupic does relay a delightful anecdote:

“They’ve got a very good chef at the White House,” Ginsburg began. “The problem for me is the President eats very fast. And I eat very slowly. I barely finished my first course when they brought the second. Then the President was done, and I realized that he had important things to do with his time.”

Nina Totenberg told a similar story in her profile:

Ruth loved food. She may have been 85 pounds soaking wet toward the end of her life, but she loved to eat. Slowly, very slowly. But God help you if you tried to take her plate way before she had eaten every last morsel of food on the plate.

Sixth, Biskupic relays some heart-felt comments from the wake of Justice Scalia’s passing.

“My first reaction was I was supposed to go first,” Ginsburg later told me. “I’m three years older. My second thought was, well, we all have to go sometimes.”

Referring to Scalia’s apparently dying in his sleep, she said, “It’s the best you can do.”

Apparently? Come on. Are we back to the Pillow Theory?

Seventh, RBG recounts a defeat from a 2011 CivPro case:

I told her that Scalia had once described her as “a tigress on civil procedure.”
“She has done more to shape the law in this field than any other justice on this court,” he had told me. “She will take a lawyer who is making a ridiculous argument and just shake him like a dog with a bone.”

“I wish he had listened to me more often,” Ginsburg responded during our January conversation.

She shuddered as she recounted a 2011 case in which, she said, Scalia and other conservatives had “picked up” enough votes to deprive her of a majority on a civil procedure issue. Before that case, she told me, “I was really on a roll.”

I scanned through the cases from OT 2010. My guess is J. McIntyre Machinery, Ltd. v. Nicastro. The court divided, sharply, about whether a consumer could sue a foreign manufacturer in state court over a product sold in the United States. Justice Kennedy wrote the plurality. Justice Ginsburg dissented, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Kagan.

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Highlights from Trump’s Interview with Woodward Regarding SCOTUS

President Trump gave a series of interviews with Bob Woodward. Today, the Washington Post published some excerpts concerning the Supreme Court. Most of what Trump told Woodward is standard fare–he repeats the same points over and over again. There were a few new tidbits.

First, Woodward baits Trump by suggesting a statue of him should be built outside the Supreme Court:

Still, remaking the bench with conservatives is one of Trump’s key accomplishments, so much so that Woodward responded with a joke: “Maybe they’ll put a statue of you outside the Supreme Court.”

The president took to the suggestion instantly. “Oh, what a good idea,” Trump said. “I think I’ll have it erected tomorrow. What a great idea. I’ll think I’ll use it.”

But, Trump added, “I won’t say it came from me.”

Woodward is a good reporter. Woodward stroked Trump’s ego so Trump would say something outlandish. And nothing strokes his ego more than statues. Woodward succeeded. I recently watched All the President’s Men for the first time. (It is on HBO Max). Robert Redford captured Woodward well.

Second, Woodward asked Trump about the fact that President Carter had zero appointments. Trump relied, “He deserved none.” The Democrats had 61 seats during Carter’s first term and 59 seats during his second term. Imagine if White or Brennan or Marshall had retired early? Or if Douglas had stuck it out one more year?

It is remarkable how fickle life tenure is. In Trump’s first time, he will make three nominations. Obama had two in his first term, and zero in his second term. W. Bush had zero in his first term, and two back-to-back in his second year. Clinton had two in his first time, zero in his second term. H.W. Bush had two in his first term, and no second term. Reagan had one in his first term, and three in his second term. Carter had zero. Ford had one. Nixon had four in his first term. Had he served a full second term, in theory, he would have had the chance to replace William O. Douglas.

If Trump is able to confirm someone before inauguration day, he will have three appointments in his first term–second to only Nixon in the modern era. Of course, Presidents used to have many more. Eisenhower and Truman had five. FDR had nine. Harding had four. Taft had six. (Can you even name two of them?) Lincoln had five, but he was working with ten seats. (Too soon?). Jackson had six. And of course, GW, the OG, had eleven nominations (if you include John Rutledge’s recess appointment).

Third, Trump “keeps a list of judicial appointment orders displayed, prop-like, on the Resolute Desk — ‘kind of like he was cherishing it.'”

Fourth, Woodward tried to bait Trump on Bostock. Woodward was hoping Trump would criticize Justice Gorsuch, or say something homophobic. Nope:

Woodward also asked Trump about Gorsuch leading the court in a landmark decision on LGBT rights in June, when it ruled against the administration in offering sweeping protections for gay and transgender people against workplace discrimination.

When Woodward noted Gorsuch voted “against your administration’s position,” the president seemed to accept the decision, saying, “Yeah, but this is the way he felt. And, you know, I want people to go the way they feel.”

What a remarkable statement. After thousands of hours of vetting the short list, Trump says meh. “I want people to go the way they feel.” Forget textualism or originalism. Trump favors feelism.

Still, Trump lamented that the ruling “opens the spigots for a lot of litigation.”

He doesn’t say what those spigots are. Presumably, he is referring to the Title IX litigation. I doubt the Equal Rights Amendment litigation is on his radar. Keep an eye on those cases, post-Bostock.

Woodward asked whether Trump would have joined the Bostock majority. What a bizarre question. Again, Woodward was trying to bait Trump. Trump didn’t take the bait.

When Woodward said he believed that Trump might have joined the majority decision if he were on the court in favor of “more freedom,” the president considered the idea, before saying, “Well, I’ll never get that vote.”

Woodward tried to bait Trump one more time with flattery:

“Well, maybe you can appoint yourself,” Woodward joked.

“I am what’s good for the people,” Trump responded. “All people. So, you know, that’s where I am.”

After four years, I still cannot tell if Trump is toying with reporters, knowing they will blow up everything he says out of context.

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