Trump Administration Labels China a ‘Currency Manipulator’ After China Briefly Stops Manipulating Its Currency

If you want a quick glimpse into the up-is-down, right-is-left world of the United States-China trade war, look no further than something Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin wrote Monday.

Referring to comments that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin made in June, Mohsin wrote that the Trump administration believed “China was intervening in currency markets to prop up the yuan, and warned it could be designated a manipulator if it stopped.”

Read that again. China “could be designated a manipulator if it stopped” artificially propping up its currency.

Indeed, that’s exactly what happened on Monday. In response to a renewed threat from Trump to hit Chinese-made goods with tariffs, the Chinese government hit back in part by doing…nothing. China simply allowed the yuan to fall—as it would have, naturally, on the back of the news that the trade war between the U.S. and China was ramping up.

In return, Mnuchin issued a statement accusing China of having taken “concrete steps to devalue its currency”—even though the real culprit for the yuan’s slide is a lack of artificial support, not a deliberate devaluation—and the United States officially declared China to be a “currency manipulator.”

It’s not that the label isn’t accurate. China has been propping up the yuan for years—decades, maybe—as a way to make exports from China more attractive to foreign buyers. It’s worked. But letting the yuan fall on Monday wasn’t an act of currency manipulation. It was the exact opposite. (China did take action on Tuesday to limit the yuan’s slide.)

“As global uncertainty stokes demand for dollars, the certainty of U.S. tariffs on Chinese-originating goods further reduces demand for Chinese yuan, exacerbating the downward pressure on the price of yuan in dollars,” explains Dan Ikenson, director of trade policy studies at the Cato Institute. “The People’s Bank of China observing the value of the yuan plummet as markets respond to Trump’s tariff frenzy is not currency manipulation.”

Writing at Forbes, Ikenson pointed out that the Chinese government has burned through more than $1 trillion trying to keep the yuan from falling as the trade war has taken its toll. Sooner or later, letting the currency fall was almost inevitable.

So this looks like a win for the Trump administration, right? Finally, the trade war is exacting enough of a toll on China that the Chinese government will have to stop propping up its currency—something that Trump believes gives China an unfair advantage.

Except, well, that’s almost completely wrong. Propping up its own currency actually does very little to help China—and probably ends up hurting only the Chinese people. Who benefits from China’s artificially high yuan? Americans.

“To the extent that currency manipulation is real and works as advertised, it makes the exports of countries that practice it artificially inexpensive for foreigners to buy,” Don Boudreaux, an economics professor at George Mason University wrote in February 2017, when Trump first raised the prospect of whacking China over its supposed manipulation of the Yuan. “Currency manipulation transfers wealth from the citizens of countries that practice it to the citizens of countries fortunate enough to buy the manipulators’ subsidized exports.”

In other words, the United States took actions against China with the intention of causing the yuan to lose value—despite the fact that an artificially high yuan is beneficial to U.S. consumers and businesses—and then labeled China a currency manipulator when it stopped manipulating its currency so the yuan could fall in value in response to economic actions designed to create that outcome.

Confused yet?

The bottom line is that the act of calling China a currency manipulator doesn’t mean a whole lot in practical terms. But it does pave the way for the Trump administration to open another front in the trade war and, probably more importantly, it continues to erode the trust between the governments of the world’s two largest economies. That’s why markets reacted poorly yesterday, and why some analysts say the prospect of a global recession is rising. That, and the fact that the ongoing trade and currency war with China is being conducted by a president who doesn’t seem to know whether it’s better to have a weak dollar or a strong one.

So it’s probably no wonder things seem a bit topsy-turvy right now.

“With the Trump administration threatening to stop Beijing’s alleged currency manipulation, and Beijing resisting,” Boudreaux wrote back in 2017, “it’s as if the Trump administration believes itself to be charged with the responsibility of protecting the welfare of the Chinese people at the expense of American citizens, while the government in Beijing plays the role of benefactor of the American people at the expense of Chinese citizens.”

Mercantilism makes for strange bedfellows.

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Trump Administration Labels China a ‘Currency Manipulator’ After China Briefly Stops Manipulating Its Currency

If you want a quick glimpse into the up-is-down, right-is-left world of the United States-China trade war, look no further than something Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin wrote Monday.

Referring to comments that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin made in June, Mohsin wrote that the Trump administration believed “China was intervening in currency markets to prop up the yuan, and warned it could be designated a manipulator if it stopped.”

Read that again. China “could be designated a manipulator if it stopped” artificially propping up its currency.

Indeed, that’s exactly what happened on Monday. In response to a renewed threat from Trump to hit Chinese-made goods with tariffs, the Chinese government hit back in part by doing…nothing. China simply allowed the yuan to fall—as it would have, naturally, on the back of the news that the trade war between the U.S. and China was ramping up.

In return, Mnuchin issued a statement accusing China of having taken “concrete steps to devalue its currency”—even though the real culprit for the yuan’s slide is a lack of artificial support, not a deliberate devaluation—and the United States officially declared China to be a “currency manipulator.”

It’s not that the label isn’t accurate. China has been propping up the yuan for years—decades, maybe—as a way to make exports from China more attractive to foreign buyers. It’s worked. But letting the yuan fall on Monday wasn’t an act of currency manipulation. It was the exact opposite. (China did take action on Tuesday to limit the yuan’s slide.)

“As global uncertainty stokes demand for dollars, the certainty of U.S. tariffs on Chinese-originating goods further reduces demand for Chinese yuan, exacerbating the downward pressure on the price of yuan in dollars,” explains Dan Ikenson, director of trade policy studies at the Cato Institute. “The People’s Bank of China observing the value of the yuan plummet as markets respond to Trump’s tariff frenzy is not currency manipulation.”

Writing at Forbes, Ikenson pointed out that the Chinese government has burned through more than $1 trillion trying to keep the yuan from falling as the trade war has taken its toll. Sooner or later, letting the currency fall was almost inevitable.

So this looks like a win for the Trump administration, right? Finally, the trade war is exacting enough of a toll on China that the Chinese government will have to stop propping up its currency—something that Trump believes gives China an unfair advantage.

Except, well, that’s almost completely wrong. Propping up its own currency actually does very little to help China—and probably ends up hurting only the Chinese people. Who benefits from China’s artificially high yuan? Americans.

“To the extent that currency manipulation is real and works as advertised, it makes the exports of countries that practice it artificially inexpensive for foreigners to buy,” Don Boudreaux, an economics professor at George Mason University wrote in February 2017, when Trump first raised the prospect of whacking China over its supposed manipulation of the Yuan. “Currency manipulation transfers wealth from the citizens of countries that practice it to the citizens of countries fortunate enough to buy the manipulators’ subsidized exports.”

In other words, the United States took actions against China with the intention of causing the yuan to lose value—despite the fact that an artificially high yuan is beneficial to U.S. consumers and businesses—and then labeled China a currency manipulator when it stopped manipulating its currency so the yuan could fall in value in response to economic actions designed to create that outcome.

Confused yet?

The bottom line is that the act of calling China a currency manipulator doesn’t mean a whole lot in practical terms. But it does pave the way for the Trump administration to open another front in the trade war and, probably more importantly, it continues to erode the trust between the governments of the world’s two largest economies. That’s why markets reacted poorly yesterday, and why some analysts say the prospect of a global recession is rising. That, and the fact that the ongoing trade and currency war with China is being conducted by a president who doesn’t seem to know whether it’s better to have a weak dollar or a strong one.

So it’s probably no wonder things seem a bit topsy-turvy right now.

“With the Trump administration threatening to stop Beijing’s alleged currency manipulation, and Beijing resisting,” Boudreaux wrote back in 2017, “it’s as if the Trump administration believes itself to be charged with the responsibility of protecting the welfare of the Chinese people at the expense of American citizens, while the government in Beijing plays the role of benefactor of the American people at the expense of Chinese citizens.”

Mercantilism makes for strange bedfellows.

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Fighting Over Video Game Violence Shows Who Prefers Culture Wars Over Reality

Immediately after the deadly mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, Fox News anchors and talking heads started speculating that the shooter might have been motivated by violent video games. They had no reason to go running to this well. The shooter’s manifesto on 8chan hadn’t even been discovered yet.

That reaction was immediately followed by a cavalcade of coverage explaining that there is no scientific data or evidence that violent video games contribute to real world violence. Video gaming is an extremely popular hobby among a wide swath of adults, especially young men. In all likelihood, just about any American male (at least any under the age of 50) who goes on a shooting rampage is likely to have a lengthy history of gaming of some type. You might as well blame it on pizza consumption. The argument is basically, “This is a thing that these guys like. There’s violence in some of these things. Ergo, this thing must have contributed to the violence.”

Unfortunately, quickly reminding people that the data doesn’t support any claim that video games cause violence didn’t silence the nonsense. (There’s even a mocking hashtag campaign.) In fact, President Donald Trump explicitly named violent video games (as he has before) as one of the culprits for the shooting, saying, “We must stop the glorification of violence in our society. This includes the gruesome and grisly video games that are now commonplace.” Here’s the clip:

Over at The Atlantic, Ian Bogost observes that blaming video games, once a bipartisan political affair, now seems to have become a hallmark of the Republican party:

This framing has obvious political benefits. The National Rifle Association started pointing fingers at games after Sandy Hook, and it redoubled its efforts to use the medium to draw attention away from gun possession and gun control after Parkland. Video-game violence seems to have transformed from an issue of bipartisan and earnest cultural opprobrium—video games are gross and maybe harmful—to a sacrificial lamb slaughtered in the service of preserving gun rights.

That’s produced a contrarian response from Democrats. After the barrage of video-game detractions wound through the airwaves, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted, “Video games aren’t causing mass shootings, white supremacy is.” Outside the political sphere, others have noted that violent video games are sold worldwide, but that only the United States possesses the surplus of firearms that actually carry out gun violence.

Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden apparently still clings to a belief that video games are a problem, however, though he’s stopping short of blaming them for murders. In an interview with CNN, Biden said, “It is not healthy to have these games teaching the kids the dispassionate notion that you can shoot somebody and just, you know, sort of blow their brains out.”

Take note of the generational gap. Trump and Biden are both of an era that has no cultural connection to video games, and Trump and Fox News are reaching out to an older generation that is frequently suspicious of youth culture. It’s easy to imagine the interest in blaming video games for violence fading in about a decade as we have fewer baby boomers among us.

Blaming video games for violence is a cynical, manipulative way for gun rights advocates, like Trump, to try to deflect attention to a scapegoat. It’s not working. Trying to deflect gun control arguments to a different subject rather than face them head-on may perpetuate culture wars but won’t reduce the heat on supporters of gun rights. Instead, we may still end up with a host of new laws that restrict freedoms without actually addressing mass shootings. Rather than figuring out solutions for mass shootings (if there are any feasible ones), blaming video games simply perpetuates the culture wars between the old and young and the left and the right, while short-circuiting anything meaningful.

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Fighting Over Video Game Violence Shows Who Prefers Culture Wars Over Reality

Immediately after the deadly mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, Fox News anchors and talking heads started speculating that the shooter might have been motivated by violent video games. They had no reason to go running to this well. The shooter’s manifesto on 8chan hadn’t even been discovered yet.

That reaction was immediately followed by a cavalcade of coverage explaining that there is no scientific data or evidence that violent video games contribute to real world violence. Video gaming is an extremely popular hobby among a wide swath of adults, especially young men. In all likelihood, just about any American male (at least any under the age of 50) who goes on a shooting rampage is likely to have a lengthy history of gaming of some type. You might as well blame it on pizza consumption. The argument is basically, “This is a thing that these guys like. There’s violence in some of these things. Ergo, this thing must have contributed to the violence.”

Unfortunately, quickly reminding people that the data doesn’t support any claim that video games cause violence didn’t silence the nonsense. (There’s even a mocking hashtag campaign.) In fact, President Donald Trump explicitly named violent video games (as he has before) as one of the culprits for the shooting, saying, “We must stop the glorification of violence in our society. This includes the gruesome and grisly video games that are now commonplace.” Here’s the clip:

Over at The Atlantic, Ian Bogost observes that blaming video games, once a bipartisan political affair, now seems to have become a hallmark of the Republican party:

This framing has obvious political benefits. The National Rifle Association started pointing fingers at games after Sandy Hook, and it redoubled its efforts to use the medium to draw attention away from gun possession and gun control after Parkland. Video-game violence seems to have transformed from an issue of bipartisan and earnest cultural opprobrium—video games are gross and maybe harmful—to a sacrificial lamb slaughtered in the service of preserving gun rights.

That’s produced a contrarian response from Democrats. After the barrage of video-game detractions wound through the airwaves, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted, “Video games aren’t causing mass shootings, white supremacy is.” Outside the political sphere, others have noted that violent video games are sold worldwide, but that only the United States possesses the surplus of firearms that actually carry out gun violence.

Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden apparently still clings to a belief that video games are a problem, however, though he’s stopping short of blaming them for murders. In an interview with CNN, Biden said, “It is not healthy to have these games teaching the kids the dispassionate notion that you can shoot somebody and just, you know, sort of blow their brains out.”

Take note of the generational gap. Trump and Biden are both of an era that has no cultural connection to video games, and Trump and Fox News are reaching out to an older generation that is frequently suspicious of youth culture. It’s easy to imagine the interest in blaming video games for violence fading in about a decade as we have fewer baby boomers among us.

Blaming video games for violence is a cynical, manipulative way for gun rights advocates, like Trump, to try to deflect attention to a scapegoat. It’s not working. Trying to deflect gun control arguments to a different subject rather than face them head-on may perpetuate culture wars but won’t reduce the heat on supporters of gun rights. Instead, we may still end up with a host of new laws that restrict freedoms without actually addressing mass shootings. Rather than figuring out solutions for mass shootings (if there are any feasible ones), blaming video games simply perpetuates the culture wars between the old and young and the left and the right, while short-circuiting anything meaningful.

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A Georgia Cop was Fired for Stalking and Harassing Women

A Georgia police officer was fired in June following disturbing allegations about his contact with several women.

WTVC reports that least four women came forward to accuse Sergeant Scott Martin of the Ringgold Police Department of sinister behavior. Police Chief Dan Bilbrey called for an internal investigation into the claims in June. The subsequent investigation, which can be viewed here, uncovered a pattern of stalking, sexual advances, and abuse of authority by Martin.

The first victim told investigators that she was contacted by Martin after he found her on Facebook. Martin told her that both he and his wife thought she was “cute” and repeatedly suggested that she sleep with his wife. She repeatedly denied his advances. When she messaged “oh my God STOP” on one occasion, he blocked her.

Martin found the second victim, a college instructor, through her Linkedin page. He located her at her college one day and sat in her class about gender and sexuality for about 15 minutes. He used pet names like “sweetie” and “stinker” in his messages to her and advised her to keep their conversations private from everyone, including the police. She feared that the demand was abusive as she had witnessed similar silencing tactics during her previous work with the Department of Family and Children’s services. She also reported that he watched her on campus and that she tried to avoid him.

The third victim told investigators that she met Martin when he walked into the bank where she worked to request a change in address and a new debit card following his divorce. Though Martin knew she was married, he added her on Snapchat. Their innocent message exchanges turned inappropriate after Martin requested personal pictures from her. He also reportedly sent an unsolicited picture of his genitals. She deleted him after stating that she would not be cheating on her husband.

Martin continued to be present in her life after he tried to visit her at work. He eventually married one of her former coworkers and added her as a friend on their joint Facebook account. He repeatedly asked her on a double date, which she and her husband refused in light of the Snapchat incident. He also continued to ask for sexual favors. The victim said she feared for her job since she worked alongside Martin’s aunt at the bank. She also expressed feelings of intimidation since Martin told her that he was a police officer.

The fourth victim told investigators that she met Martin as part of her job cleaning city properties. She said Martin continuously followed her at work and even to the gas station. At one point, she asked Martin if she broke any laws. He told her that she hadn’t. Martin repeatedly asked her questions about her intentions when he saw her at work. She also stated that he questioned her intentions when he saw her at the grocery store or gas station. The victim told investigators that the situation creeped her out even more because Martin was supposed to be one of her points of official contact if she ever experienced discomfort at work.

The investigation’s search into Martin’s work history found that he was fired from a school while working towards his teaching certificate. During the incident that led to his termination, he illegally used a student’s disciplinary record during a mock trial in a classroom. He was also found to have exchanged inappropriate messages with a female student. At another job, where he was employed as a counselor in training, he reportedly made an inappropriate sexual remark toward a head female counselor.

Administrators at that job also expressed concern about the idea of Martin becoming a police officer, speculating that he would possibly retaliate against others. Martin did not disclose his termination or this concern when he applied to be an officer.

As reported by WTVC, Martin was found to have violated five internal policies of the Ringgold Police Department, including “not conducting himself toward the public in a civil and professional manner as a police officer.”

Luckily for the women of Georgia, state law considers police disciplinary records to be public records. Should Martin seek employment at another police department in the state, the history of his firing and alleged behavior should not be difficult to uncover.

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A Georgia Cop was Fired for Stalking and Harassing Women

A Georgia police officer was fired in June following disturbing allegations about his contact with several women.

WTVC reports that least four women came forward to accuse Sergeant Scott Martin of the Ringgold Police Department of sinister behavior. Police Chief Dan Bilbrey called for an internal investigation into the claims in June. The subsequent investigation, which can be viewed here, uncovered a pattern of stalking, sexual advances, and abuse of authority by Martin.

The first victim told investigators that she was contacted by Martin after he found her on Facebook. Martin told her that both he and his wife thought she was “cute” and repeatedly suggested that she sleep with his wife. She repeatedly denied his advances. When she messaged “oh my God STOP” on one occasion, he blocked her.

Martin found the second victim, a college instructor, through her Linkedin page. He located her at her college one day and sat in her class about gender and sexuality for about 15 minutes. He used pet names like “sweetie” and “stinker” in his messages to her and advised her to keep their conversations private from everyone, including the police. She feared that the demand was abusive as she had witnessed similar silencing tactics during her previous work with the Department of Family and Children’s services. She also reported that he watched her on campus and that she tried to avoid him.

The third victim told investigators that she met Martin when he walked into the bank where she worked to request a change in address and a new debit card following his divorce. Though Martin knew she was married, he added her on Snapchat. Their innocent message exchanges turned inappropriate after Martin requested personal pictures from her. He also reportedly sent an unsolicited picture of his genitals. She deleted him after stating that she would not be cheating on her husband.

Martin continued to be present in her life after he tried to visit her at work. He eventually married one of her former coworkers and added her as a friend on their joint Facebook account. He repeatedly asked her on a double date, which she and her husband refused in light of the Snapchat incident. He also continued to ask for sexual favors. The victim said she feared for her job since she worked alongside Martin’s aunt at the bank. She also expressed feelings of intimidation since Martin told her that he was a police officer.

The fourth victim told investigators that she met Martin as part of her job cleaning city properties. She said Martin continuously followed her at work and even to the gas station. At one point, she asked Martin if she broke any laws. He told her that she hadn’t. Martin repeatedly asked her questions about her intentions when he saw her at work. She also stated that he questioned her intentions when he saw her at the grocery store or gas station. The victim told investigators that the situation creeped her out even more because Martin was supposed to be one of her points of official contact if she ever experienced discomfort at work.

The investigation’s search into Martin’s work history found that he was fired from a school while working towards his teaching certificate. During the incident that led to his termination, he illegally used a student’s disciplinary record during a mock trial in a classroom. He was also found to have exchanged inappropriate messages with a female student. At another job, where he was employed as a counselor in training, he reportedly made an inappropriate sexual remark toward a head female counselor.

Administrators at that job also expressed concern about the idea of Martin becoming a police officer, speculating that he would possibly retaliate against others. Martin did not disclose his termination or this concern when he applied to be an officer.

As reported by WTVC, Martin was found to have violated five internal policies of the Ringgold Police Department, including “not conducting himself toward the public in a civil and professional manner as a police officer.”

Luckily for the women of Georgia, state law considers police disciplinary records to be public records. Should Martin seek employment at another police department in the state, the history of his firing and alleged behavior should not be difficult to uncover.

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To Stop Mass Shooters, Trump Says, We Should Make Involuntary Psychiatric Treatment Easier. No, We Shouldn’t.

“Guns don’t kill people,” says the old NRA slogan. “People kill people.” Yesterday, while responding to the mass shootings that killed 22 people in El Paso and nine in Dayton over the weekend, Donald Trump offered a dubious variation on that theme. “Mental illness and hatred pulls the trigger, not the gun,” he said.

Although the president’s speech was scripted, that line was illogical as well as ungrammatical. For one thing, I’ve never heard anyone claim that “the gun” pulls “the trigger,” and I’m not sure how that would work in a non-cartoon universe. For another, it is plainly not true that “mental illness and hatred” pull the trigger—or do anything else, for that matter. We should not lose sight of that fact that mass murder is volitional behavior, as tempting as it may be to speculate about the killer’s motives or mental state.

The president offered two theories. “We must reform our mental health laws to better identify mentally disturbed individuals who may commit acts of violence and make sure those people not only get treatment, but, when necessary, involuntary confinement,” he said. But Trump also decried the “racist hate” that seems to have inspired the El Paso shooter.

In practice, those two explanations may be hard to disentangle. “These are sick people,” Trump’s chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, told ABC News on Sunday. He added, referring to the El Paso shooter, “You cannot be a white supremacist and be normal in the head.”

Mulvaney thereby demonstrated the malleability of psychiatric diagnoses and the danger of letting them determine who shall be free and who shall be subjected to “involuntary confinement.” Under current law, shaped by civil libertarian concerns about that danger, states generally have to show by “clear and convincing evidence” that a candidate for commitment, because of mental illness, poses a danger to himself or others.

A belief in white supremacy, or any other abhorrent ideology, is not enough to meet that test, even though it might occasionally motivate murderous violence. The risks of going down that road should be obvious to anyone who values freedom of conscience and freedom of speech.

While Trump seems to think it should be easier to lock people up and forcibly subject them to psychiatric treatment, the “clear and convincing” standard of proof is, according to the Supreme Court, required by the Fourth Amendment. The thing to be proven, however, varies from state to state, so there is some room for adjustment there.

Under Florida’s Baker Act, for example, the state has to show by clear and convincing evidence that there is a “substantial likelihood” a candidate for commitment will, because of mental illness, “inflict serious bodily harm” on himself or others “in the near future.” Alabama similarly requires “a real and present threat of substantial harm to self and/or others.” Massachusetts, by comparison, requires “a substantial risk of physical harm” to self or others, without reference to timing. New York’s standard is similar.

When Trump says we should “reform our mental health laws to better identify mentally disturbed individuals who may commit acts of violence,” he may have in mind loosening the standards for commitment by reducing the requisite level of risk or imminence of harm. But that would not really “better identify” potential killers; it would just cast a wider net, ensnaring more harmless people as well as (perhaps) more people with homicidal tendencies.

For what it’s worth, Columbia psychiatrist Michael Stone estimates that “one in five mass murderers shows evidence of psychosis,” which does not necessarily mean mental health specialists would have deemed them dangerous enough for commitment. “Over thirty years of commentary, judicial opinion, and scientific review argue that predictions of danger lack scientific rigor,” University of Georgia law professor Alexander Scherr noted in a 2003 Hastings Law Journal article. “Scientific studies indicate that some predictions do little better than chance or lay speculation, and even the best predictions leave substantial room for error about individual cases. The sharpest critique finds that mental health professionals perform no better than chance at predicting violence, and perhaps perform even worse.” Since psychiatrists are terrible at predicting violent behavior, the potential public safety payoff from making involuntary psychiatric treatment a bit easier does not seem worth the cost, especially if you are one of the innocent people caught in the wider web.

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To Stop Mass Shooters, Trump Says, We Should Make Involuntary Psychiatric Treatment Easier. No, We Shouldn’t.

“Guns don’t kill people,” says the old NRA slogan. “People kill people.” Yesterday, while responding to the mass shootings that killed 22 people in El Paso and nine in Dayton over the weekend, Donald Trump offered a dubious variation on that theme. “Mental illness and hatred pulls the trigger, not the gun,” he said.

Although the speech was scripted, that line was illogical as well as ungrammatical. For one thing, I’ve never heard anyone claim that “the gun” pulls “the trigger,” and I’m not sure how that would work in a non-cartoon universe. For another, it is plainly not true that “mental illness and hatred” pull the trigger—or do anything else, for that matter. We should not lose sight of that fact that mass murder is volitional behavior, as tempting as it may be to speculate about the killer’s motives or mental state.

The president offered two theories. “We must reform our mental health laws to better identify mentally disturbed individuals who may commit acts of violence and make sure those people not only get treatment, but, when necessary, involuntary confinement,” he said. But Trump also decried the “racist hate” that seems to have inspired the El Paso shooter.

In practice, those two explanations may be hard to disentangle. “These are sick people,” Trump’s chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, told ABC News on Sunday. He added, referring to the El Paso shooter, “You cannot be a white supremacist and be normal in the head.”

Mulvaney thereby demonstrated the malleability of psychiatric diagnoses and the danger of letting them determine who shall be free and who shall be subjected to “involuntary confinement.” Under current law, shaped by civil libertarian concerns about that danger, states generally have to show by “clear and convincing evidence” that a candidate for commitment, because of mental illness, poses a danger to himself or others.

A belief in white supremacy, or any other abhorrent ideology, is not enough to meet that test, even though it might occasionally motivate murderous violence. The risks of going down that road should be obvious to anyone who values freedom of conscience and freedom of speech.

While Trump seems to think it should be easier to lock people up and forcibly subject them to psychiatric treatment, the “clear and convincing” standard of proof is, according to the Supreme Court, required by the Fourth Amendment. The thing to be proven, however, varies from state to state, so there is some room for adjustment there.

Under Florida’s Baker Act, for example, the state has to show by clear and convincing evidence that there is a “substantial likelihood” a candidate for commitment will, because of mental illness, “inflict serious bodily harm” on himself or others “in the near future.” Alabama similarly requires “a real and present threat of substantial harm to self and/or others.” Massachusetts, by comparison, requires “a substantial risk of physical harm” to self or others, without reference to timing. New York’s standard is similar.

When Trump says we should “reform our mental health laws to better identify mentally disturbed individuals who may commit acts of violence,” he may have in mind loosening the standards for commitment by reducing the requisite level of risk or imminence of danger. But that would not really “better identify” potential killers; it would just cast a wider net, ensnaring more harmless people as well as (perhaps) more people with homicidal tendencies.

For what it’s worth, Columbia psychiatrist Michael Stone estimates that “one in five mass murderers shows evidence of psychosis,” which does not necessarily mean mental health specialists would have deemed them dangerous enough for commitment. “Over thirty years of commentary, judicial opinion, and scientific review argue that predictions of danger lack scientific rigor,” University of Georgia law professor Alexander Scherr noted in a 2003 Hastings Law Journal article. “Scientific studies indicate that some predictions do little better than chance or lay speculation, and even the best predictions leave substantial room for error about individual cases. The sharpest critique finds that mental health professionals perform no better than chance at predicting violence, and perhaps perform even worse.” Since psychiatrists are notoriously bad at predicting violent behavior, the potential public safety payoff from making involuntary psychiatric treatment a bit easier does not seem worth the cost, especially if you are one of the innocent people caught in the wider web.

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How Faint Bruises on Baby Ava Nearly Destroyed Her Family

A few days before she turned one, Ava took her first steps. A much-desired baby who arrived after eight years of fertility treatments, her parents, Mike and Debbie King (not their real names), called Ava their “little miracle.” Careful and protective, Mike and Debbie were utterly unprepared to become targets of a child abuse investigation.

At Ava’s routine one-year checkup, her pediatrician saw several faint, small bruises on Ava’s chest, belly, and inner thigh. The pediatrician instructed Mike and Debbie to promptly take Ava for blood tests for bleeding disorders or liver disease. They went to the nearest emergency room the same day. 

Ava’s initial blood tests showed no obvious signs of a medical disorder. But given that the Kings couldn’t say how Ava’s bruising had occurred, an emergency department staff member decided she had to call the child protective services (CPS) hotline to report suspected child abuse. 

Unexplained bruises like Ava’s are considered early warning signs of possible abuse. And when abuse is genuinely suspected, calling CPS hotlines is mandated under current law.

It makes sense for doctors who see odd bruises to order tests to rule out medical conditions. It also makes sense for them to ask the parents about possible causes, and to look for more signs of injuries. But even the most attentive parents sometimes can’t account for every small bruise on their active infants and toddlers. In those cases, the rush to call an abuse hotline, while intended to protect children, can actually put kids like Ava in harm’s way.

And yet such calls have become routine.

An estimated one-third of children in the United States have been investigated for some type of child abuse or neglect. Among African American families, the number is one out of every two children.  

Yet some doctors and policymakers would like to see more hotline calls. Two pending bills introduced on April 3—S.B. 1009, proposed by Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D–Wisc.) and Bill Cassidy (R–La.), and H.R. 2076, proposed by Reps. Kim Schrier (D–Wash.) and Steve Stivers (R–Ohio)—seek $10 million in funding to increase reporting, reporter training, and investigation of unexplained bruises to CPS authorities.

Though well-intended, this measure is riddled with misplaced assumptions. If enacted, it will traumatize innocent families and redirect child welfare resources away from the real cases of serious abuse. These bills wrongly assume that the science of diagnosing abuse from faint marks is well-developed, when in fact it is only in its infancy and requires much more research.

Ava’s Story

After the staffer placed the hotline call about Ava, a CPS caseworker quickly came to the hospital, examined the girl, and expressed surprise that her bruising was barely noticeable. He allowed Debbie and Mike to take their baby home, with a plan to continue his investigation. 

The next day, Ava’s pediatrician insisted that the Kings should have taken Ava to a different hospital that had a child abuse medical team. When the Kings balked at the added expense, and at the prospect of another long day at a hospital for no good medical reason, the CPS caseworker now threatened to take custody of Ava if they refused.

Once there, the child abuse pediatric team entered orders for two separate rounds of full body x-rays for Ava. While the examining doctor at the new hospital saw no necessity for these scans, he did not countermand the order.

Debbie usually could calm Ava quickly following shots and well-baby exams, but the x-rays were different. Ava wailed while the technicians pulled on her arms and legs. Debbie tried in vain to calm her through her own tears. To Debbie, it felt like she was witnessing abuse that she was powerless to stop.

The scans showed no further injuries. Still, the family was directed to come back for a second scan to see if any broken bones showed up that were too recent to be detected that day.

With the seed of suspicion planted by the hotline call and the demand for a full child abuse workup, the state began working against the Kings. Soon after the suspicion was anchored in the minds of the investigators, confirmation bias made it increasingly difficult to un-ring the abuse alarm.

A police detective assigned to the Kings’ case stood up for the family. When Detective Matthew Sandoval made an initial visit to their home, Debbie and Mike showed him Ava’s high chair and explained how she often attempted to wrestle her way out. In his report, the detective noted several times that the high chair’s harness buckles corresponded to the baby’s sites of bruising. He also reported the child’s recent prescription for steroids, which would increase her susceptibility to bruising. It was clear that the detective did not believe Ava had been abused.

Sixteen days after the hotline call, the child abuse team convened at the children’s hospital. This team included not just the child abuse doctors and social workers from the hospital but police, CPS investigators, and assistant state’s attorneys. While called “multidisciplinary,” the team did not include any specialists—such as hematologists, orthopedists, neurosurgeons, or radiologists—who diagnose and treat children’s medical conditions that can cause bruises.

At the meeting, the detective stated his opinion that there was no evidence of abuse, mentioning the highchair’s harness and Ava’s recent steroid treatment. No one from the child abuse medical team sought to examine the chair themselves, nor did they credit the steroid explanation. The meeting became contentious, with the two child abuse pediatricians arguing with Sandoval.

The team concluded that the parents should not be allowed to be with Ava except when supervised. They also decided to open an investigation against Ava’s day care owner as a possible abuse perpetrator. But Debbie and Mike remained the prime “suspects.” 

In order to comply with the new restrictions, Debbie’s parents had to come from Indiana to move in with Debbie and Mike to supervise all their contacts with Ava. The Kings were initially told that any unsupervised contact with Ava would cause her to be immediately taken from them and put into foster care with strangers. (A week later, when Debbie’s parents told the CPS caseworker that they had to return home, the government relented and let the couple have unrestricted contact with their daughter.)

Eventually, though the child abuse pediatricians had never met the Kings or examined Ava’s bruises for themselves, they declared abuse the best explanation, discounting all the alternatives. Relying on this opinion, the CPS agency listed Debbie and Mike as child abusers in the Illinois child abuse registry. This registry can be accessed by employers, doctors, child care agencies, schools, and others authorized to run background checks. CPS then closed its case.

No court case was ever filed. Baby Ava remained home. Several doctors and even the caseworker told the Kings, privately, that they didn’t think they had abused their daughter, but they didn’t speak up to stop the abuse registry against them. This was supposed to be comforting to the Kings.

It wasn’t.

And now they still faced a huge legal hurdle: Getting their names off the child abuse registry.

To do this, Debbie and Mike had to secure legal counsel at their own expense for a registry removal hearing. (In all but a handful of states, registry decisions are made with no prior judicial review, with the burden on the registered person to request review to get off.)

That’s how I came to meet the Kings myself. They had reached out to the nonprofit I headed at the time, the Family Defense Center, which helped families navigate the treacherous child protection system.

The Kings had located an out-of-state pediatrician, a specialist with decades of experience in child abuse and emergency medicine, who made a compelling witness. Her conclusion was that there was no abuse and no reason to suspect either Debbie or Mike. Indeed, if the child abuse pediatricians had been correct that “blunt force trauma” had caused the marks on Ava, internal injuries or broken bones would have been found too. 

After she submitted her medical opinion, the CPS concluded that the agency’s case was too weak to take to a hearing. And so the registered abuse finding against the Kings was voluntarily expunged.

It had taken a year and a half to get the Kings’ names off the state’s child abuse registry. 

The toll of the wrongful allegation was substantial. For one thing, Mike and Debbie had spent considerable sums on legal and medical fees. But the greatest trauma was the family’s deep new sense of vulnerability. At a time when they should have been experiencing the joy of watching their firstborn learn to toddle, their sense of security and privacy was shattered. The experience left them fearful long after the bruises had faded.

There is an increasing belief—fueled by mandated reporters’ liability concerns— that making a hotline call is the “safest” course of action. There seems to be little awareness of how abuse allegations hang like a cloud over the heads of innocent parents, many of whom lack the resources to fight back. Outnumbered and outgunned, few parents can escape unscathed. That holds true even when, as in Ava’s case, there is ample evidence in the parents’ favor.

Making the Problem Worse

S.B. 1009 and H.R. 2076—along with H.R 2. 2480, an umbrella bill that would reauthorize federal child abuse prevention and treatment funding—call for increasing CPS investigations of minor marks on children. The bills lack any acknowledgment that medical science is not advanced enough to distinguish abusive from non-abusive marks in the absence of other evidence of abuse.

The bills’ advocates rely on a 2012 study that found that a quarter of infants under a year old who were eventually identified as victims of physical abuse had medical records noting past bruising. These earlier bruises were considered “sentinel injuries” whose early assessment might have prevented continued abuse.

That certainly supports the importance of identifying truly abusive bruising early on. But the same study found bruising in substantial numbers of the control group too. Moreover, this retrospective study only demonstrates a correlation: It does not provide diagnostic or predictive guidance as to when faint marks like Ava’s signal real danger.

The proposed bills should raise special concerns for families of children with rare medical conditions and disabilities, who are disproportionately affected by CPS hotline calls. Marks like Ava’s occur in dozens of unusual conditions. CPS involvement can cause physicians to step back from voicing their own medical opinions supporting parents, in an effort to avoid entanglement with police and CPS. If these bills become law, any parent who has a baby with a bruise—regardless of whether it’s from a medical condition, or even from learning to crawl—could get entangled in a months-long battle to maintain custody.

Indeed, the Kings were better positioned than most families who face a wrongful allegation of abuse. If Debbie or Mike had worked with children, they likely would have lost their jobs. Registry decisions against parents often ruin careers.

Federal courts have ruled these registry systems unconstitutional in New York, Illinois, and California, raising the question of how often parents are erroneously labeled child abusers. These rulings have cited staggering error rates in registering findings of abuse—and a lack of any meaningful due process for parents trying to challenge them. When parents lose their jobs as a result of being wrongly placed on an abuse registry, they lose their ability to provide for their family. This doesn’t make children safer. Quite the opposite.

Health care professionals should of course act on a genuine, reasonable suspicion of abuse. But families’ stability and security are put into jeopardy when official child abuse investigations begin without first reviewing medical records, consulting with objective physicians, and confirming essential information with other available caregivers.

Infants’ own bumps and tumbles can generate bruises that parents don’t always notice or recall when questioned by medical, CPS or police authorities. Rough handling by siblings, interactions with pets, falls off furniture, and other such accidents can easily result in a bruise. It is simply untrue, as some child abuse pediatricians proclaim, that “children who don’t cruise don’t bruise”—in other words, that kids who are too young to start walking can’t possibly get bumped or bruised.

Restoring Balance

Ava remained in her parents’ care with no further injuries—except that Ava’s grandmother observed the same bruising pattern again a few months later, after she placed Ava in the same high chair while the parents were away.

In medicine, misdiagnosis is often rooted in the failure to consider alternative explanations. This is no different in the field of child abuse. In fact, the still-quite-new field of child abuse pediatrics (which became a certified subspecialty in 2009) creates a fertile ground for misdiagnoses as there are not yet clearly established objective measures for the accuracy of abuse diagnoses.

Instead of a prosecutor’s wish list, Congress should pass a much more balanced measure that will help practitioners differentiate between bruises caused by medical issues, accidental injury, daily life, or abusive trauma. Instead of flooding the overstretched child abuse system with investigations of every unexplained boo-boo, Congress should take steps to ensure that the medical system for investigating child abuse first does no harm.

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How Faint Bruises on Baby Ava Nearly Destroyed Her Family

A few days before she turned one, Ava took her first steps. A much-desired baby who arrived after eight years of fertility treatments, her parents, Mike and Debbie King (not their real names), called Ava their “little miracle.” Careful and protective, Mike and Debbie were utterly unprepared to become targets of a child abuse investigation.

At Ava’s routine one-year checkup, her pediatrician saw several faint, small bruises on Ava’s chest, belly, and inner thigh. The pediatrician instructed Mike and Debbie to promptly take Ava for blood tests for bleeding disorders or liver disease. They went to the nearest emergency room the same day. 

Ava’s initial blood tests showed no obvious signs of a medical disorder. But given that the Kings couldn’t say how Ava’s bruising had occurred, an emergency department staff member decided she had to call the child protective services (CPS) hotline to report suspected child abuse. 

Unexplained bruises like Ava’s are considered early warning signs of possible abuse. And when abuse is genuinely suspected, calling CPS hotlines is mandated under current law.

It makes sense for doctors who see odd bruises to order tests to rule out medical conditions. It also makes sense for them to ask the parents about possible causes, and to look for more signs of injuries. But even the most attentive parents sometimes can’t account for every small bruise on their active infants and toddlers. In those cases, the rush to call an abuse hotline, while intended to protect children, can actually put kids like Ava in harm’s way.

And yet such calls have become routine.

An estimated one-third of children in the United States have been investigated for some type of child abuse or neglect. Among African American families, the number is one out of every two children.  

Yet some doctors and policymakers would like to see more hotline calls. Two pending bills introduced on April 3—S.B. 1009, proposed by Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D–Wisc.) and Bill Cassidy (R–La.), and H.R. 2076, proposed by Reps. Kim Schrier (D–Wash.) and Steve Stivers (R–Ohio)—seek $10 million in funding to increase reporting, reporter training, and investigation of unexplained bruises to CPS authorities.

Though well-intended, this measure is riddled with misplaced assumptions. If enacted, it will traumatize innocent families and redirect child welfare resources away from the real cases of serious abuse. These bills wrongly assume that the science of diagnosing abuse from faint marks is well-developed, when in fact it is only in its infancy and requires much more research.

Ava’s Story

After the staffer placed the hotline call about Ava, a CPS caseworker quickly came to the hospital, examined the girl, and expressed surprise that her bruising was barely noticeable. He allowed Debbie and Mike to take their baby home, with a plan to continue his investigation. 

The next day, Ava’s pediatrician insisted that the Kings should have taken Ava to a different hospital that had a child abuse medical team. When the Kings balked at the added expense, and at the prospect of another long day at a hospital for no good medical reason, the CPS caseworker now threatened to take custody of Ava if they refused.

Once there, the child abuse pediatric team entered orders for two separate rounds of full body x-rays for Ava. While the examining doctor at the new hospital saw no necessity for these scans, he did not countermand the order.

Debbie usually could calm Ava quickly following shots and well-baby exams, but the x-rays were different. Ava wailed while the technicians pulled on her arms and legs. Debbie tried in vain to calm her through her own tears. To Debbie, it felt like she was witnessing abuse that she was powerless to stop.

The scans showed no further injuries. Still, the family was directed to come back for a second scan to see if any broken bones showed up that were too recent to be detected that day.

With the seed of suspicion planted by the hotline call and the demand for a full child abuse workup, the state began working against the Kings. Soon after the suspicion was anchored in the minds of the investigators, confirmation bias made it increasingly difficult to un-ring the abuse alarm.

A police detective assigned to the Kings’ case stood up for the family. When Detective Matthew Sandoval made an initial visit to their home, Debbie and Mike showed him Ava’s high chair and explained how she often attempted to wrestle her way out. In his report, the detective noted several times that the high chair’s harness buckles corresponded to the baby’s sites of bruising. He also reported the child’s recent prescription for steroids, which would increase her susceptibility to bruising. It was clear that the detective did not believe Ava had been abused.

Sixteen days after the hotline call, the child abuse team convened at the children’s hospital. This team included not just the child abuse doctors and social workers from the hospital but police, CPS investigators, and assistant state’s attorneys. While called “multidisciplinary,” the team did not include any specialists—such as hematologists, orthopedists, neurosurgeons, or radiologists—who diagnose and treat children’s medical conditions that can cause bruises.

At the meeting, the detective stated his opinion that there was no evidence of abuse, mentioning the highchair’s harness and Ava’s recent steroid treatment. No one from the child abuse medical team sought to examine the chair themselves, nor did they credit the steroid explanation. The meeting became contentious, with the two child abuse pediatricians arguing with Sandoval.

The team concluded that the parents should not be allowed to be with Ava except when supervised. They also decided to open an investigation against Ava’s day care owner as a possible abuse perpetrator. But Debbie and Mike remained the prime “suspects.” 

In order to comply with the new restrictions, Debbie’s parents had to come from Indiana to move in with Debbie and Mike to supervise all their contacts with Ava. The Kings were initially told that any unsupervised contact with Ava would cause her to be immediately taken from them and put into foster care with strangers. (A week later, when Debbie’s parents told the CPS caseworker that they had to return home, the government relented and let the couple have unrestricted contact with their daughter.)

Eventually, though the child abuse pediatricians had never met the Kings or examined Ava’s bruises for themselves, they declared abuse the best explanation, discounting all the alternatives. Relying on this opinion, the CPS agency listed Debbie and Mike as child abusers in the Illinois child abuse registry. This registry can be accessed by employers, doctors, child care agencies, schools, and others authorized to run background checks. CPS then closed its case.

No court case was ever filed. Baby Ava remained home. Several doctors and even the caseworker told the Kings, privately, that they didn’t think they had abused their daughter, but they didn’t speak up to stop the abuse registry against them. This was supposed to be comforting to the Kings.

It wasn’t.

And now they still faced a huge legal hurdle: Getting their names off the child abuse registry.

To do this, Debbie and Mike had to secure legal counsel at their own expense for a registry removal hearing. (In all but a handful of states, registry decisions are made with no prior judicial review, with the burden on the registered person to request review to get off.)

That’s how I came to meet the Kings myself. They had reached out to the nonprofit I headed at the time, the Family Defense Center, which helped families navigate the treacherous child protection system.

The Kings had located an out-of-state pediatrician, a specialist with decades of experience in child abuse and emergency medicine, who made a compelling witness. Her conclusion was that there was no abuse and no reason to suspect either Debbie or Mike. Indeed, if the child abuse pediatricians had been correct that “blunt force trauma” had caused the marks on Ava, internal injuries or broken bones would have been found too. 

After she submitted her medical opinion, the CPS concluded that the agency’s case was too weak to take to a hearing. And so the registered abuse finding against the Kings was voluntarily expunged.

It had taken a year and a half to get the Kings’ names off the state’s child abuse registry. 

The toll of the wrongful allegation was substantial. For one thing, Mike and Debbie had spent considerable sums on legal and medical fees. But the greatest trauma was the family’s deep new sense of vulnerability. At a time when they should have been experiencing the joy of watching their firstborn learn to toddle, their sense of security and privacy was shattered. The experience left them fearful long after the bruises had faded.

There is an increasing belief—fueled by mandated reporters’ liability concerns— that making a hotline call is the “safest” course of action. There seems to be little awareness of how abuse allegations hang like a cloud over the heads of innocent parents, many of whom lack the resources to fight back. Outnumbered and outgunned, few parents can escape unscathed. That holds true even when, as in Ava’s case, there is ample evidence in the parents’ favor.

Making the Problem Worse

S.B. 1009 and H.R. 2076—along with H.R 2. 2480, an umbrella bill that would reauthorize federal child abuse prevention and treatment funding—call for increasing CPS investigations of minor marks on children. The bills lack any acknowledgment that medical science is not advanced enough to distinguish abusive from non-abusive marks in the absence of other evidence of abuse.

The bills’ advocates rely on a 2012 study that found that a quarter of infants under a year old who were eventually identified as victims of physical abuse had medical records noting past bruising. These earlier bruises were considered “sentinel injuries” whose early assessment might have prevented continued abuse.

That certainly supports the importance of identifying truly abusive bruising early on. But the same study found bruising in substantial numbers of the control group too. Moreover, this retrospective study only demonstrates a correlation: It does not provide diagnostic or predictive guidance as to when faint marks like Ava’s signal real danger.

The proposed bills should raise special concerns for families of children with rare medical conditions and disabilities, who are disproportionately affected by CPS hotline calls. Marks like Ava’s occur in dozens of unusual conditions. CPS involvement can cause physicians to step back from voicing their own medical opinions supporting parents, in an effort to avoid entanglement with police and CPS. If these bills become law, any parent who has a baby with a bruise—regardless of whether it’s from a medical condition, or even from learning to crawl—could get entangled in a months-long battle to maintain custody.

Indeed, the Kings were better positioned than most families who face a wrongful allegation of abuse. If Debbie or Mike had worked with children, they likely would have lost their jobs. Registry decisions against parents often ruin careers.

Federal courts have ruled these registry systems unconstitutional in New York, Illinois, and California, raising the question of how often parents are erroneously labeled child abusers. These rulings have cited staggering error rates in registering findings of abuse—and a lack of any meaningful due process for parents trying to challenge them. When parents lose their jobs as a result of being wrongly placed on an abuse registry, they lose their ability to provide for their family. This doesn’t make children safer. Quite the opposite.

Health care professionals should of course act on a genuine, reasonable suspicion of abuse. But families’ stability and security are put into jeopardy when official child abuse investigations begin without first reviewing medical records, consulting with objective physicians, and confirming essential information with other available caregivers.

Infants’ own bumps and tumbles can generate bruises that parents don’t always notice or recall when questioned by medical, CPS or police authorities. Rough handling by siblings, interactions with pets, falls off furniture, and other such accidents can easily result in a bruise. It is simply untrue, as some child abuse pediatricians proclaim, that “children who don’t cruise don’t bruise”—in other words, that kids who are too young to start walking can’t possibly get bumped or bruised.

Restoring Balance

Ava remained in her parents’ care with no further injuries—except that Ava’s grandmother observed the same bruising pattern again a few months later, after she placed Ava in the same high chair while the parents were away.

In medicine, misdiagnosis is often rooted in the failure to consider alternative explanations. This is no different in the field of child abuse. In fact, the still-quite-new field of child abuse pediatrics (which became a certified subspecialty in 2009) creates a fertile ground for misdiagnoses as there are not yet clearly established objective measures for the accuracy of abuse diagnoses.

Instead of a prosecutor’s wish list, Congress should pass a much more balanced measure that will help practitioners differentiate between bruises caused by medical issues, accidental injury, daily life, or abusive trauma. Instead of flooding the overstretched child abuse system with investigations of every unexplained boo-boo, Congress should take steps to ensure that the medical system for investigating child abuse first does no harm.

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