Summarizing The ISM Fiasco: Here Is The Original May “Data”, The Revised “Data”, And The Revised-Revised “Data”

Confused by the amateur hour at the ISM data manipulation office? Then this table summarizing the first May data release, the revised May data and the revised revised May data (which still missed expectations of a 55.5 increase, printing at 55.4 instead), should explain it all.

Remember: when manipulation data for “seasonal adjustments” you may at least want to fudge all of it, not just those cherry-picked components that help you goalseek a number that does not anger the gods of centrally-planned stock markets.




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Here Are The Cherry-picked ISM Revisions

While we still await for the ISM to figure out how to update its website with its fudged numbers, here is what happened and made the Institute of Supply Management the butt off all rigged economic data jokes today.

First of all, we wonder if when…

ISM’S HOLCOMB SAYS DROP MAY BE JUST A `SLIGHT PAUSE’

… this too will be seasonally retracted considering the revised data was not only not a drop but a spike?

And we certainly would love to see an explanation why survey responses need seasonal fudging. In any event, here is what the pre-fiasco numbers were, as well as post-fiasco. In their scramble to revise the data, ISM appears to have applied seasonal adjustments only to 5 of the 11 total indices.

We are eagerly looking forward to the ISM’s release of both adjusted adjusted number, as well as the baseline unadjusted numbers to which it applied the revision.




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Cleveland Cops Indicted For Car Chase That Started Over Nothing and Ended With a Fatal Police Shooting

shot by copsSix cops from the Cleveland Police Department
(CPD) were
indicted
on charges related to
a car chase
that began when a cop likely mistook the sound of
an engine firing for gun shots and ended with 13 cops firing 137
rounds into the car, killing Timothy Russell, the unarmed driver,
and Malissa Williams, his passenger.

Five of the cops were charged with dereliction of duty. Their
supervisors are accused of allowing the chase, which involved up to
104 of the 227 cops on duty at the time, to get out of control. The
sixth cop, Michael Brelo, was charged with manslaughter. He is
accused of standing on the hood of Russell’s car after the chase
and firing at least 15 shots through the windshield.
Sixty three cops
were suspended for up to ten days last year,
although that included none of the 13 cops involved in the actual
shooting, who were then under investigation. One supervisor was
eventually fired.

As an animation created by the Ohio attorney general’s office
showed, 12 other cops fired 122 shots at the car, with one cop
shooting 49 rounds, but none of them were indicted. The county
prosecutor explained that Brelo’s actions were “a stop-and-shoot—no
longer a chase-and shoot,” and that the “law does not allow for a
stop-and-shoot,” citing a recent Supreme Court decision that

found in favor
of cops using deadly force to end a car
chase.

In its report, the Associated Press
called
 Russell and Williams “suspects,” even though no
evidence was found that either of them had fired a weapon toward an
officer (the claim that began the deadly chase), nor even that
anyone had fired any gun in the vicinity of the cop who claimed he
heard it. They were neither suspected nor accused of any specific
crime by the gaggle of cops who pursued them—merely of trying to
elude them.

The city of Cleveland
asked
the U.S. Department of Justice to review police policies
after the chase and shooting. That review continues.

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What’s Wrong With This Seasonally Unrigged Picture?

While the ISM, clearly unhappy with the bond buying following its fudged data release, revised its data to even more fudged and made up on the fly numbers, perhaps it would be a good idea to at least update its website at the same time as it confirms it has borrowed the goalseek.xls model from the Chinese department of truth.




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‘Racism’ Today Looks Little Like Racist Ideology of Yore

In the British magazine
spiked, sociology professor Frank Furedi looks at how our
cultural
concept of racism has shifted
. Once understood as something
ideological and systemic, racism is now frequently used to describe
any act or speech that reveals potential prejudice or could cause
offense. 

Furedi explains that in the lead-up to the
recent EU elections
, there seemed to be “a new consensus,
especially in the media, which says the problem of racism is far
greater today than it was in the past.” You’d be hard-pressed to
find many Americans in agreement about the relative problem of
racism today, but Furedi’s piece still has applicable insights for
those of us west of the eurozone. 

Anyone attune to pop culture, current events and social media
knows how frequently charges of racism are thrown about and how
fluid the concept has become. “Racism” on Twitter today can merely
mean not knowing how to properly signal that one isn’t racist (that
there’s a privelege inherent in knowing to check one’s privelege
seems lost on many).

There are certainly omnipresent examples of systemic and
individual racism in 21st century America. But the kind of causes
and comments that most rally Internet social justice warriors tend
to have little relation to these, and the concept of racism they
espouse has strayed far from context or historical meaning. From
Feredi:

We should recall that until the outbreak of the Second World
War, racial thinking was rarely questioned in any part of the
world. Even in academic circles, critics of racism were very much
in a minority in the 1930s. Back then, the term ‘racist’ was used
neutrally and sometimes even positively in Western societies. It
was only in the 1930s that the word ‘racism’ started to acquire
negative connotations. It was in that decade that the use of the
word racism in a derogatory way was first recorded in the English
language. But even then, the idea of racial equality had few
defenders–including within the intellectual community.

Since the 1930s, racism, with its oppressive claim that some
people are superior to other, ‘subhuman’ people, has been
systematically discredited. The idealisation of the racial
superiority of whites and the dehumanisation of people from Africa
and Asia has been culturally marginalised. Even the most extreme
xenophobic cults and parties now find it difficult explicitly to
use the language of racial ideology. The notion of racial
superiority is conspicuous by its absence in public discussion in
the twenty-first century.

[…] Historically, racism expressed the worldview of the
powerful. A sense of superiority, be it biological, moral or
cultural, was integral to the outlook of the elites that dominated
Western societies. Today, those with economic, political and
cultural power rarely express themselves through the narrative of
race. The powerful rarely express open hostility or crude prejudice
towards other groups of people. On the contrary, today it tends to
be those who feel they have been left behind, who believe they have
been socially and culturally marginalised by mainstream society,
who express some kind of racist thinking.

Racism, for the record, is defined as a “doctrine
that inherent differences among the various human races determine
cultural or individual achievement; a policy, system of government,
etc., based on fostering such a doctrine; or hatred or intolerance
of other races.” It’s an entire belief system, a pattern of
conscious thoughts and actions. It’s not an offhandedly offensive
remark or insufficient sensitivity to how your views may be
culturally or racially biased.

But the redefining of racism has been long-coming, according to
Feredi: 

Since the early 1980s, racism has been subtly redefined as a
psychological problem. The redefinition of racism from an act of
conscious oppression to an unwitting problem of the mind was
boosted by the former British High Court judge, Sir William
Macpherson, in his 1999 report into the Metropolitan Police’s
handling of the murder of a black London teenager, Stephen
Lawrence. The
Macpherson report
 defined institutional racism as
something that ‘can be seen or detected in processes, attitudes and
behaviour which amount to discrimination through unwitting
prejudice, ignorance, thoughtlessness and racial stereotyping which
disadvantage minority ethnic people’. The key word here is
‘unwitting’–this depicts racism as an unconscious response driven
by unspecific emotions. The idea that people can be racists
unwittingly means that literally anyone can be a racist–whether
they know it or not.

… The complexity of the psychological motivation behind
so-called unwitting racism was discussed by Macpherson in the
following terms: ‘A racist incident is any incident which is
perceived to be racist by the victim or any other person.’ In
making individual subjective experience the foundation stone of
accusations of racism, Macpherson ensured that ‘unwitting racism’
would be a problem that would expand exponentially as time went
by.

Read the whole thing
here

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A. Barton Hinkle: Stop Blaming Society, Start Blaming the Individual Responsible

Who bears the blame for a
tragedy like the recent spree killing by Elliot Roger in
California? Gun makers? Hollywood? White male privilege? A. Barton
Hinkle has a better idea: Let’s stop blaming society and start
blaming the individual responsible for the crime.

View this article.

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The City of Chicago Battles Blight—By Paying for Granite Counter Tops in a Gentrifying Neighborhood

Since 2009, the city of Chicago has received $169 million from
the Neighborhood Stabilization Program, a federal effort to help
state and local governments ease urban blight by redeveloping
foreclosed properties. Chicago has spent $140 million of that money
demolishing and rehabbing homes—but not the homes you might
expect.

Writing in the Chicago Reporter, Angela Caputo
notes
that

...or rebuilding homes, anyway.in the city’s poorest
neighborhoods, where vacant homes can be bought for the price of a
car, the hope was that [the funds] would go a long way.

But records obtained through the Freedom of Information Act show
the city spent money on buildings with luxury finishes in
gentrifying areas while distressed properties in some of the city’s
hardest hit neighborhoods were left to languish. In their grant
proposal to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
city officials pledged to rehab 2,800 units, a combination of
apartments, condos and single-family homes. Less than one-third
were completed.

Among other details, Caputo reports that the rehabilitation of a
single house in gentrifying Albany Park—complete with federally
funded granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances—received
more money than all of Roseland, a low-income neighborhood hit
especially hard by the foreclosure crisis. Noting that the program
funneled funds through the state government as well, she observes
that it “cost an average of $65,000 more to rehab a single-family
home or two-flat when it was done through the city.”

So Chicago officials spent more money than was necessary to
rehab fewer properties than they promised, with much of the benefit
going to communities that needed help the least. Ladies and
gentlemen, your government in action.

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NSA Wants a Good Look at Your Photos (Aren’t You Flattered?)

AdultFriendFinderHave you been wondering if
maybe the National Security Agency is just a huge version of
AdultFriendFinder cobbled together by people who know how to work
the federal budgetary process? It just could be. The
latest evidence comes in the form of revelations that the spook
agency is gathering huge numbers of images from around the world
for use in its facial recognition program.

According to James Risen and Laura Poitras at
The New York Times
:

The National Security Agency is harvesting huge numbers of
images of people from communications that it intercepts through its
global surveillance operations for use in sophisticated facial
recognition programs, according to top-secret documents.

The spy agency’s reliance on facial recognition technology has
grown significantly over the last four years as the agency has
turned to new software to exploit the flood of images included in
emails, text messages, social media, videoconferences and other
communications, the N.S.A. documents reveal. Agency officials
believe that technological advances could revolutionize the way
that the N.S.A. finds intelligence targets around the world, the
documents show. The agency’s ambitions for this highly sensitive
ability and the scale of its effort have not previously been
disclosed.

Facial recognition technology has become something of a law
enforcement must-have in recent years. Cops in the San Diego area
wander around
taking snapshots of passsersby with their smartphones
to match
to the federally subsidized
Tactical Identification System
. One officer told reporters he
uses his “spidy senses” as a judge of when to try to make a
match.

Separately, the FBI
plans to have 52 million of our mugs
in its own Next Generation
Identification database by the end of 2015. (You’re surprised that
the feds have competing and duplicative facial recognition
programs?)

The
specifications for that FBI system
allowed that it “shall
return an incorrect candidate a maximum of 20% of the time.” Which
makes you wonder just how accurate the NSA system is in correctly
matching suspected international do-ers of bad deeds. If a state or
federal database wrongly tags a suspect, your door may end up off
its hinges during a wrong-house raid. Drones, by contrast, don’t
even have the good manners to stand on the back of your neck while
they figure out where to pass the blame.

State and local agencies raid drivers license databases and
social media for their images, while the feds have access to that
plus huge databases of passport photos, visa applicants, and the
like. The NSA apparently pulls in images from private
communications, including video, too. Yes,
those
videos, through the Optic Nerve program.

A federally funded AdultFriendFinder, after all.

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Supreme Court Won’t Intervene in Obama Administration’s War on Journalists, Leakers

James Risen, currently not in jail.Amid the flurry of activity
announced from the Supreme Court today, one simple order put an end
to New York Times reporter James Risen’s legal efforts to
refuse to identify a confidential source used in his book,
State of War
. The Supreme Court declined to hear his
case.

The source is alleged to be Jeffrey Sterling, a former CIA
official the Department of Justice is trying to convict under the
Espionage Act for supposedly detailing to Risen a secret plan to
sabotage Iran’s nuclear research. Risen included the information in
his book, published in 2006.

Risen has said he would go to jail rather than give up his
source. The Supreme Court’s unwillingness to take up the case
leaves intact an order from the Appeals Court for the Fourth
Circuit to comply with the subpoena. But though Risen could face
jail for contempt, the New York Times
notes
that the Department of Justice may not be willing to push
that far:

Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr.
hinted
last week that the Justice Department might choose not
to ask the trial judge to jail Mr. Risen for contempt should he
refuse to testify.

The Obama administration has pursued leaks aggressively,
bringing criminal charges in eight cases, compared with three under
all previous administrations combined.

At the same time, the administration has supported efforts in
Congress to create a federal shield law that would allow judges to
quash some subpoenas to journalists. The Justice Department has
also issued
new internal regulations
limiting the circumstances in which
prosecutors can subpoena reporters’ testimony and records.

While the proposed federal shield law and new internal
regulations sound like positive developments, I’ve
previously noted
that both the proposed law and the regulations
have holes you could drive a newspaper delivery truck through.
Given the nature of the information provided to Risen, it seems
unlikely the proposed federal
shield law
(pdf) would have protected him even if it were in
place. It has a significant “national security” exemption that
encourages deference to federal claims.

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