Month: June 2014

The officially released agenda of the prestigious Bilderberg club meeting (attendees listed here) is not true, claims Russia Today show host Daniel Estulin, a longtime watcher of the ‘secret world govt’ group. He says he obtained the real agenda for this year’s gathering in Copenhagen. An insider leaked the list of talking points for the ongoing Bilderberg conference to the investigative journalist last week, he said. The list has nine items, seven of which he shared… from Nuclear diplomacy and the disturbing rise of Nationalism; it was a focus on Barack Obama’s foreign policy that drew our attention most closely…

 

The Bilderberg Group is a six-decades-old club for some of the world’s most influential individuals, politicians, officials, businessmen, academics and European royalty, regularly gathering to discuss global policy issues. Critics accuse them of acting as a shadow unelected government, would-be rulers of the world, which take decisions affecting billions of people behind closed doors, with little regard for the needs or wishes of the general population.

In an apparent bid to dissipate these accusations, this time Bilderberg made its official agenda public. Among the 12 topics for this year’s conference were “the new architecture of the Middle East,” “Ukraine” and “The future of democracy and the middle class trap.”

However, the leaked ‘real’ agenda is as follows…

The Bilderberg Agenda… (7 of 9 topics)

1. Nuclear diplomacy and the deal with Iran currently in the making.

The club has long been cautious of a possible alliance between Russia, China and Iran. The deal that would lift Western pressure from the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program would affect this possibility.

2. Gas deal between Russia and China.

It came amid a serious political crisis in Ukraine, which threatens Russia’s supply of natural gas to European nations. Moscow has diversified its gas trade by sealing a long-term contract with Beijing. Potentially, China may replace the EU as the prime energy trade partner for Russia, a situation which strengthens Moscow’s position in Ukraine by undermining Washington’s effort to isolate Russia and Kiev’s leverage through its control of transit gas pipelines.

3. Rise of nationalist moods in Europe.

The agenda was formed before the latest European Parliament elections, which cast a spotlight on the trend. Populist eurosceptic parties are winning the hearts of Europeans from the UK to Greece to Hungary, dealing a blow to the union’s unity. A nationally driven and divided Europe would be reluctant to take globalization for granted.

4. EU internet privacy regulations.

Edward Snowden’s exposure of the scale of electronic surveillance on the part of the US National Security Agency and its allies worldwide sparked a major protest from privacy-seeking people. European politicians can’t ignore the calls to protect people’s communication from snooping, which potentially makes data collection more difficult. At least not immediately, as indicated by the apparent scaling down of Germany’s investigation into the NSA’s alleged surveillance.

5. Cyberwarfare and its potential effect on internet freedoms.

The destructive potential of cyber attacks is growing rapidly as reliance on the internet in all aspects of life rises. But the threat of state-sponsored hacker attacks is what some governments may use as a pretext for clamping down on the internet, undermining its role as a medium for the sake of security.

6. From Ukraine to Syria, Barack Obama’s foreign policy.

Critics of the US president blame him for betraying America’s leadership overseas, citing failures to defend American interests in Syria and lately in Ukraine. Obama’s newly announced doctrine calls on scaling down reliance on military force and using diplomacy and collective action instead. Bilderberg members will discuss whether this policy is doomed.

7. Climate change.

This is a regular topic for many high-ranking discussions, not only the Bilderberg conference in Denmark. People suspicious of the elites call climate change a euphemism for the artificial deindustrialization of some nations, with the goal of keeping the global economy under the control of transnational corporations and the expense of potential hubs of economic growth.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kZ1jdA Tyler Durden

This is a big week for the global capital markets. It is likely to prove to be the most significant week of the not only the first half of the year, but perhaps even the entire year. There are four major central bank meetings and the US employment data. The euro zone reports the flash reading of May’s consumer prices and there are is the monthly cycle of purchasing manager indices.

 

1. ECB:  In this eventful week, the ECB meeting is by far the most significant. Draghi came the closest the ECB does to pre-committing to moving this week, with the new staff forecasts in hand. There is some uncertainty of precisely what the ECB will do. However, the range of options appear be narrowed to interest rate adjustment, forward guidance, and perhaps a targeted funding-for-lending scheme. There does not seem to be a consensus for outright asset purchases, but Draghi is likely to emphasize in his press conference that the ECB is prepared to do more if necessary.

 

A move to negative deposit rates is the most important of the measures that may be announced. It is unprecedented among key central banks. Even combating deflation for years, the Bank of Japan never charged banks for depositing money with it. Most observers do not seem to think it will have much impact. We remain concerned about the knock-on disruptive indicators to large economic agents, including the government itself, money market funds and businesses. In a perverse way, a negative deposit rate may also aggravate the contractionary impulse in the financial sector by leading. The flash May CPI will be released on Tuesday. After softer Italian and Spanish figures before the weekend, the risk would seem to be on the downside to the April 0.7% reading.

 

We suspect the 4 cent decline in the euro over the past month to have largely discounted a 10-15 bp cut in key lending rates. Such a rate cut is unlikely to cover in full the reduced inflation estimates the ECB staff is likely to project. Technically, the euro may be poised to bounce. The event has long been anticipated. “Sell the rumor, buy the fact” behavior is not uncommon. It was also what appeared to be the case in the US. A case in point is the dollar’s sell-off in anticipation of the third round of QE. It recovered after it was announced.

 

2. US Jobs:  The monthly US employment data always attracts attention. However, we argue that this report has lost some of its market impact. The Federal Reserve appears to be on something close to auto-pilot. It will take more than a 1% contraction in quarterly GDP to prompt the Fed to reassess its tapering. At the same time, the modest rise being seen in a broad range of inflation indicators does not appear to increase the pace of tapering.

 

According to a Reuters survey, the consensus is for a 220k increase in non-farm payrolls but sees the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.4% from 6.3%. Yellen has encouraged market participants to look beyond the usual headlines and toward more nuanced measures of the labor market. These include weekly earnings, the participation rate, and the taking part-time jobs because they cannot find full-time work.

 

3. Bond Rally: Until now there was not compelling evidence that short-covering was driving US Treasury prices. However, latest the Commitment of Traders for the 10-year Treasury note future a large adjustment to positions. The shorts appeared to capitulate. The gross short position was slashed by 131k contracts to 398.4k, which was highest since before the financial crisis. The short covering was the largest since December 2012. The net short position fell to 19.1k contracts from 97.9k. At the same time, the longs took profits. The gross long position was cut by 52.1k contracts to 379.3k. Separately, at the end of last week the FDIC confirmed that US banks had boosted their Treasury holdings by nearly a quarter in Q1, the largest increase since before the crisis. The regulatory pressure that leads bank and pension funds to hold more Treasuries is taking place at the same time the deficit is falling, and the issuance schedule had been reduced. The issuance schedule increases now and price pressures have stopped falling and may have begun increasing (albeit slowly)

 

4. Reserve Bank of Australia: The cash rate is expected to remain stable at the record low 2.5% for many months ahead. Guidance from the central bank has been clear on this. On a trade-weighted basis, the Australian dollar rose in late Q1 and into early Q2 and has since gone broadly sideways. RBA comments on the Australian dollar are headline risks but do not typically have lasting impacts.

 

At mid-week, Australia reports its first estimate of Q1 GDP. The market expects the economy expanded at a 0.9% quarter-over-quarter pace. However, below the surface, the domestic economy remains weak. The key is the external sector likely accounted for the bulk of the growth as iron ore exports increased while the imports of capital equipment likely fell. This is not sustainable. Iron ore prices have collapsed. In part, the decline in capital equipment shows the economy is struggling to transition away from mining.

 

5. Bank of Canada: The mid-week meeting is unlikely to result in a change in policy or the general neutral bias. Core inflation ticked up to 1.4% since the BoC last met, and the year-over-year growth in average weekly earnings (3.1% year-over-year in March), coupled with benchmark effects suggests the low point in consumer inflation be likely behind Canada. The unexpected decline in industrial prices (-0.2% vs. consensus +0.4%) and the weaker than expected raw material prices (0.1% vs. consensus 0.5%) may be constructive for producer’s margins. Separately, Canada reports May employment figures at the end of the week. After being surprised by a decline in jobs in April (-29k), the consensus is sticking to its guns that it was a fluke and believes the job loss will be completely recouped in May (Bloomberg consensus is for 32k new jobs).

 

6. BOE:  The Bank of England meets Thursday. As it is not expected to do anything, no statement is expected. Carney may have a similar experience as his predecessor King. King, as it will be recalled, was outvoted repeatedly by a less dovish majority. The debate over the extent of spare capacity, which is difficult to measure in any event, suggests the opposition will grow to Carney’s dovish tilt in favor of earlier rate hikes. We suspect that it is likely several months too early to be expressed in dissents at the MPC.

 

7. China PMI:   China reported its official manufacturing PMI over the weekend. The 50.8 reading was slightly above expectations and the rise in May was the third consecutive increase. It stands at a five-month high. Of note, the forward looking new orders rose to 52.3 from 51.2. Export orders, however, only ticked up to 49.3 from 49.1. This underscores our argument that the decline in the yuan is not aimed to boost exporters and, that in terms of orders (rather than profit-margins), they do not appear to be benefiting much from the weaker currency (even though it appears export bottomed in February with an 18% year-over-year decline–Lunar New Year and crack down false exports to hide capital inflows). HSBC will report the final reading for its PMI (initially 49.7) and the service readings will start the week, while the latest trade figures are at the end of the week.

 

China has taken a number of stimulative measures, including cutting required reserves for more banks and boosting housing and railway investment. Some spending is being accelerated.  In other areas, administrative measures, such as encouraging banks to expedite the mortgage approval process, also offer greater support for the economy. We note a number of economists have begun revised up Chinese growth forecasts.

 

8. South Korea reported surprising May trade figures over the weekend. The consensus expected exports to have risen 1.4% on a year-over-year basis, according to a Wall Street Journal poll. Instead, they fell 0.9%. Imports were expected to have risen by 6.5% and instead rose by a negligible 0.3%. We do note their were few working days, but calendar effects are not usually the cause of big forecasts errors. Of interest, South Korea imported 71.3 mln barrels of oil in May, down from 77.5 mln barrels a year ago. This may point some economic weakness more than energy efficiency. The won rose to new multi-year highs against the dollar, despite reports of central bank intervention, at the end of last week. South Korea report PMI, CPI and GDP figures this week.

 

The disappointing trade figures may encourage a bout of profit-taking on long won positions. Foreign investors have bought $1.7 bln of South Korean equities in May after having bought a net $100 mln in the first four months of the year. Initial dollar resistance is seen ahead of KRW1030.

 

9. G7 and European Politics: This week’s G7 meeting was to have been a G8 meeting before Russia annexed Crimea. With the Ukrainian elections having taken place and Russia withdrawing some troops from the Ukrainian border, many including Obama will seek to credit the sanction regime. Rather than announce new policies, on his numerous visits in Europe, Obama will try to convey a pragmatic course in between isolationist and interventionist.

 

While the US mid-term election in the middle of Q4, the implication of the recent European elections are still not clear. We recognize that it is in interests of the partisans to play up the significance. Objectively, about four of ten who were eligible voted and then about one of those voted for an ant-EU party. Note most countries have their own anti-EU party. We also some truth in that the EU parliamentary elections serve as a venting mechanism for domestic angst, without having to bear direct impact from it.  Many of UKIP voters, for example, want the UK to remain in the EU.  There is also difference between an anti-austerity agenda and anti-EU.  Simply put, the opposition to the EU is fragmented. Even if they were to cooperate, which seems highly unlikely on any kind of large scale, they will be marginalized by the two main party groupings.

 

Juncker must be considered the front-runner to be the next EC President, it is not done deal by any means. There are many forces at work, and one of the key ones, which might be under-appreciated is the balance of power between the Council of Ministers (representing the nation-states) and the EU parliament (which presents some supra-national authority).

 

Lastly, the EU delivers its convergence report at mid-week. In addition to the annual check up, which is always worth a look, the report is likely to endorse Lithuania’s candidacy for monetary union as of Jan 1, 2015. Besides being important for Lithuania itself is also is important for governance issues. The ECB may move to rotating voting scheme, for example.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1wOpeld Marc To Market

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

What else could we have done with the billions of dollars squandered on regulatory friction and the pursuit of questionable claims of damage?

Behind the public-relations facade of “advocacy” and “justice,” much of the American legal system is unproductive regulatory friction and the pursuit of extortionist rentier skims. I recently received an email that reflects many aspects of this systemic reality.

The letter blares legal threat in its upper-case title: TRADEMARK VIOLATION. Not possible trademark violation or alleged trademark violation, but a declaration of the unquestioned guilt of the recipient.

The email then proceeds to the accusation:

We recently visited your website and discovered that you are using the phase “From the Garden to the Table” on your website.

This is not an accurate statement. I used the phrase once within a longer string of words: from the garden to the table in 20 minutes. I am not “using the phrase on my website,” I wrote those words once as a description of my individual actions, i.e. harvesting vegetables from my garden and preparing a meal with them in 20 minutes.

Next, the email lists the URL to the offending page on my site, but when I clicked on the link, it led to some other website:

This URL http://ift.tt/1gBVBwO led tohttp://ift.tt/1wOp7WX…, a page of the Chicago-based organization experimental station.

In other words, this threatening legal letter was filled with errors both subtle and egregious. Anecdotally, such sloppiness is hardly unique in American law–especially when it comes to issuing veiled threats and enforcing rentier skims. The basic approach in America is unleash a tsunami of questionable threats and demands and then see what sticks.

The email then declared: Please take formal and Legal notice that the phrase “From the Garden to the Table” is a TRADEMARKED NAME of a California based non-profit organization. This registration is listed under #3118945 in the US Patent and trademark office.

At this juncture, we have reason to believe that your utilization of the trademark may be an oversight, and as such, we are sending you this notice to request that you immediately remove this phrase from your website. (emphasis in the email)

 

Would any judge declare my single use of this phrase in the context of a longer phrase a violation of trademark law? It’s difficult to see how my writing the plain English descriptive phrase from the garden to the table in 20 minutes harms the trademark or the holder of the trademark, from the garden to the table, a non-profit organization whose slogan is Eat & Live Green.Perhaps the organization has trademarked that phrase as well, so please be cautious in your use of eat & live green as well as from the garden to the table.

You see the Orwellian absurdity of a non-profit promoting growing and eating healthy food devoting resources to threatening individuals and other organizations that share these same goals with unproductive and nonsensical accusations of trademark violation.

If I were a donor of from the garden to the table, I would be wondering if devoting scarce resources to absurd attacks on obviously innocent uses of a trademarked phrase was really a good use of my money.

I would also wonder if such poorly executed “enforcement of trademark” is really the best possible use of the money I donated to further the goal of Eating & Living Green. Wouldn’t donors’ funds be better spent reaching out to these individuals and organizations, rather than harassing them with bogus accusations of TRADEMARK VIOLATION?

But none of this–the sloppiness, the scattershot accusations, the threatening tone of presumed guilt, the money squandered that could have been spent on something productive–is unique: it is standard practice in America.

We might also ask: why is it even possible to trademark such a phrase? What possible benefit is created by enabling the trademarking of virtually any common phrase, or the patenting of practices such as “photography against a white background”?

The practice of law in America boils down to two activities: enforcing extortionist rentier skims (for example, patent trolls who buy broad patents and then threaten everyone under the sun with questionable patent violations) or seeking extortionist compensation for alleged damages from anyone or any entity with insurance and/or cash to plunder.

The rest of the nation’s unproductive legal churn is devoted to complying with the tens of thousands of conflicting and overlapping regulations imposed by layer upon layer of government. Common sense suggests some regulations benefit the broad public, but much of what is passed as “protecting the public” is actually designed to protect established businesses from competition and hide parasitic skims behind complexity fortresses.

All this generates two kinds of extortion: you need to pay legal firms to protect you from frivolous claims of damage (or else bad things happen), and you also have to pay them to “vigorously defend” whatever intellectual property you might own, lest the circling legal sharks snatch it all away (i.e. bad things happen).

This unproductive edifice of legalized extortion, threats, scattershot claims of damage and regulatory friction has a very high opportunity cost to society and the economy. How many potential entrepreneurs decide not to start a business once they see the horrendous costs of complying with overlapping regulatory complexities, and how many close down rather than face the uncertainties and high costs of legal jousting with attorneys whose own costs of filing accusations and threats is near-zero?

What else could we have done with the billions of dollars squandered on regulatory friction and the pursuit of questionable claims of damage? Some estimate the cost of legal extortion and regulatory compliance at $1.9 trillion a year–roughly 12% of the nation’s GDP. There is no question we could have done something productive with all this treasure. Instead we have a system of parasitic make-work that incentivizes legalized extortion.

Yes, there are plenty of honest, hard-working attorneys. The problem is not the individuals trapped in the system, the problem is the system itself.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nU69Km Tyler Durden

Several days ago, we looked at the big picture of US immigration, presenting the place of origin of America’s 40 million foreign-born residents. However, as is always the case with the US, focusing on the big picture at the national level ignores the nuances at the state level.

The following two charts using Pew Research data, compiled by the WaPo, show the dramatic changes in the land of origin of US immigrants, beginning with 1910 when Germany was the primary driver of US-born residents, accounting for 18% of US immigrants, and proceeding through 2010, when Mexico has become the the biggest source of foreign-born residents: the birthplace of 29% of all immigrants in the US.

1910:

 

and 2010:

Some observations from WaPo:

With more than 40 million immigrants, the United States is the top destination in the world for those moving from one country to another. Mexico, which shares a nearly 2,000-mile border with the U.S., is the source of the largest wave of immigration in history from a single country to the United States.

 

But today’s volume of immigrants, in some ways, is a return to America’s past. A century ago, the U.S. experienced another large wave of immigrants. Although smaller at 18.2 million, they hailed largely from Europe. Many Americans can trace their roots to that wave of migrants from 1890-1919, when Germany dominated as the country sending the most immigrants to many of the U.S. states, although the United Kingdom, Canada and Italy were also strongly represented.

 

In 1910, Germany was the top country of birth among U.S. immigrants, accounting for 18% of all immigrants (or 2.5 million) in the United States. Germans made up the biggest immigrant group in 17 states and the District of Columbia, while Mexico accounted for the most immigrants in just three states (Arizona, New Mexico and Texas). Behind Germany, the second-most number of immigrants in the U.S. were from Russia and the countries that would become the USSR (11%, or 1.6 million).

 

Since 1965, when Congress passed legislation to open the nation’s borders, immigrants have largely hailed from Latin America and Asia. In states that have attracted many immigrants, the current share of immigrants is below peaks reached more than a century ago. Today there are four states (California, New York, New Jersey and Florida) in which about one-in-five or more people are foreign born. California peaked in 1860 at 39.7%, when China was the top country of birth among immigrants there. Meanwhile, New York and New Jersey peaked in 1910 at 30.1% (Russia and the USSR) and 26.2% (Italy), respectively.

 

Today, five times as many immigrants in the U.S. are from Mexico than China, the country with the second-highest number of immigrants (5% of all immigrants in the U.S., or 2.2 million). Mexico is the birthplace of 29% (or 11.7 million) of all immigrants in the United States. Immigrants born in Mexico account for more than half of all of the foreign born in four states: New Mexico (72.4%), Arizona (60.2%), Texas (59.7%) and Idaho (53.5%).

Of note: while until 1970, the percentage of US population that was foreign born steadily declined, reaching just 5%, over the past 40 years, as the organic growth rate of US-born population has declined below the rate of immigration, the percentage of immigrants as a % of total has been rising steadily and is now back to a level not seen in the past century.

 

Finally, here is why the Germans are losing to Mexicans, at least when it comes to US immigration by state: an animated map of German vs Mexican immigration from 1850 until modern days.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1n0wzsX Tyler Durden

With the NSA already reigning supreme when it comes to the capture of virtually every form of instantaneous electronic communication and interchange, aka the “flow” of data, there is one final threshold that the US superspy agency needed to cross before the biggest brother of all would have full control over not only the flow of information, but its stock too: a photographic database of virtually everyone. And courtesy of not only programs like Facebook, but also its access to government photographic data, the NSA is focusing on just that. As the NYT reports, the agency is “harvesting huge numbers of images of people from communications that it intercepts through its global surveillance operations for use in sophisticated facial recognition programs, according to top-secret documents.”

When we say “focusing”, we mean just that, at a pace that is simply unprecedented:

“The agency intercepts “millions of images per day” — including about 55,000 “facial recognition quality images” — which translate into “tremendous untapped potential,” according to 2011 documents obtained from the former agency contractor Edward J. Snowden. While once focused on written and oral communications, the N.S.A. now considers facial images, fingerprints and other identifiers just as important to its mission of tracking suspected terrorists and other intelligence targets, the documents show.”

The NSA is not shy about its intentions:

“It’s not just the traditional communications we’re after: It’s taking a full-arsenal approach that digitally exploits the clues a target leaves behind in their regular activities on the net to compile biographic and biometric information” that can help “implement precision targeting,” noted a 2010 document.

In addition to its traditionally favorite method of collecting data, namely unauthorized intercepts of emails and other electronic communications, the NSA has a cornucopia of prepared data it can parse.

State and local law enforcement agencies are relying on a wide range of databases of facial imagery, including driver’s licenses and Facebook, to identify suspects. The F.B.I. is developing what it calls its “next generation identification” project to combine its automated fingerprint identification system with facial imagery and other biometric data.

While it is the US State Department that has “what several outside experts say could be the largest facial imagery database in the federal government, storing hundreds of millions of photographs of American passport holders and foreign visa applicants”, what sets the NSA apart, aside from having unchecked access to virtually all electronic data located anywhere in the world, is its ability to match images with huge troves of private communications.

The agency has developed sophisticated ways to integrate facial recognition programs with a wide range of other databases. It intercepts video teleconferences to obtain facial imagery, gathers airline passenger data and collects photographs from national identity card databases created by foreign countries, the documents show. They also note that the N.S.A. was attempting to gain access to such databases in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

 

One of the N.S.A.’s broadest efforts to obtain facial images is a program called Wellspring, which strips out images from emails and other communications, and displays those that might contain passport images. In addition to in-house programs, the N.S.A. relies in part on commercially available facial recognition technology, including from PittPatt, a small company owned by Google, the documents show.

When asked for comment, an N.S.A. spokesman said the agency did not have access to photographs in state databases of driver’s licenses or to passport photos of Americans, while declining to say whether the agency had access to the State Department database of photos of foreign visa applicants. She also declined to say whether the N.S.A. collected facial imagery of Americans from Facebook and other social media through means other than communications intercepts. Which is a yes.

Ironically, while the NYT reports of several instances of false positives when using the database, the NSA’s, and the administration’s response has been one comparable to what Edward Snowden lamented yesterday when discussing 9/11: instead of focusing on improving the accuracy of its pinpoint matches, the NSA is simply expanding its database making it more unwieldy, and violating even more privacy statutes in the process.

And before someone says it was all Bush’s fault, it appears Obama has taken a keen interest in boosting the NSA’s photo database:

The N.S.A. has accelerated its use of facial recognition technology under the Obama administration, the documents show, intensifying its efforts after two intended attacks on Americans that jarred the White House. The first was the case of the so-called underwear bomber, in which Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian, tried to trigger a bomb hidden in his underwear while flying to Detroit on Christmas in 2009. Just a few months later, in May 2010, Faisal Shahzad, a Pakistani-American, attempted a car bombing in Times Square.

Finally, while faces can and do lead to false positive results, with the use of disguises or other reasons, the final frontier that the NSA appears to be gunning for are iris scans, which like fingerprints, are unique to an individual and as such won’t lead to a false identification.

… the agency has considered getting access to iris scans through its phone and email surveillance programs. But asked whether the agency is now doing so, officials declined to comment. The documents also indicate that the N.S.A. collects iris scans of foreigners through other means.  In addition, the agency was working with the C.I.A. and the State Department on a program called Pisces, collecting biometric data on border crossings from a wide range of countries.

And putting it all in context, here is the complete private data architecture which the NSA needs in order to feel complete:

• Biometric/Biologic data: showing individual’s physical traits: face, iris, fingerprints, voice, gait. More examples of this data include:
  • Familial
  • Volitional
  • Individual
  • Sex
  • Height
  • Heat signature
  • Genetic Markers
  • Voiceprint
  • Blood group
  • Language
  • Ritual scarification
  • Recreational drug
  • Medical devices
  • Footprint
  • Hair chemical profile
  • Race
  • Motile
  • Handwriting
  • Typing
  • Gait
  • Limp

• Biographic: data that documents an individual’s life history: name, DOB, address, school, military. More examples of this data include:
  • Core Personal
  • Addresses
  • Educational
  • Employment
  • Judicial
  • Military Service
  • Family
  • Acquired Traits
  • Spouse
  • Children
  • Cohabitants
  • Employees
  • Servants
  • Guests

• Contextual/Behavioral: data that captures an individual’s interactions with the external world: travel, financial behaviors, social network.
  • Financial
  • Public Records
  • Licenses
  • Personal Pattern
  • Commercial Transaction
  • Media Consumption/Production
  • Associates
  • Political Donations
  • Property
  • License Plates
  • Vehicle VINs
  • Tastes/Preferences
  • Accounts records
  • ATM Usage/Transactions
  • Tax Records
  • Credit Ratings

And much more. A full breakdown of the NSA’s comprehensive ambition is outlined in this formerly confidential slide:

 

The full NSA slideshow, courtesy of the NYT:

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nFzPxb Tyler Durden

DAILY PRICE
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,254.00, EUR 921.04 and GBP 749.33 per ounce.

Thursday’s AM fix was USD 1,254.00, EUR 921.04 and GBP 749.82 per ounce.

Gold fell almost 1% to a near four month low on Friday, extending its losing streak a fourth consecutive day. For the week, gold lost about 3.5% for its worst decline since late November 2013. Heavy technical selling throughout the week sent bullion prices below $1,250 for the first time since February 4.

Gold in US Dollars – 1 Minute, 5 Days – (Thomson Reuters)

The move lower this week would appear to be technically driven as there was no negative headline data, obvious reasons for price falls or indeed evidence of physical gold selling. Indeed, the mood music for gold is quite positive – especially the worsening situation in Ukraine and attendant geopolitical risk. Gold may have been weighed down by book squaring ahead of month end and technical selling by commodity funds.

One plausible factor for gold’s weakness is the ever increasing, “irrationally exuberant” appetite for risk globally which may be impacting gold. Yesterday, the poor U.S. GDP number, which was much worse than analysts had forecast, did not lead to the bounce in gold that one would have expected. Nor did it lead to weakness in permanently levitating stock markets which continued on their merry way higher.

The simplistic view that the U.S. economy’s poor performance in the first quarter is purely weather related remains prevalent. This is despite increasing evidence that the U.S. consumer is struggling and close to being tapped out. The latter scenario is likely the case which will prove bullish for gold in the long term.

Gold premiums in India almost halved this week on the belief the new government will ease restrictions on imports of the precious metal thereby increasing demand. Indian premiums fell to $30-$40 an ounce over the global benchmark, from $80-$90 last week, dealers told Reuters.

In China, gold premiums ticked slightly higher this week but remain at  around $3 per ounce. Chinese premiums have remained depressed this week, which suggests demand in China has not yet picked up on this week’s price weakness.

Technically, gold is vulnerable to a further fall to test what appears to be a double bottom between $1,180/oz and $1,200/oz. This is particularly the case in the very short term, in other words, today and early next week.

It is worth considering seasonal trends and June is traditionally one of the weakest months for gold (see heatmap). Gold’s 5 year and 10 year average performance in June is negative.

Gold Seasonality Chart – Heatmap (Bloomberg)

It is also worth considering last year’s performance. Gold saw massive concentrated selling in April and further weakness in May – from $1,476/oz to $1,386/oz. Then June saw gold fall again, from $1,386/oz to the $1,200/oz level at the end of June which marked the end of the 2nd quarter, 2013.

This is a time when traders, investors and the media take stock and evaluate the relative performance of various assets. If one were attempting to paint the tape through price manipulation, one would aim to have gold lower at mid year and year end. This is exactly what happened.

This had the effect of greatly reducing “animal spirits” in the gold market and snuffing out the potential for rallies given the very significant global demand that was occurring, especially in China.

Gold then bounced sharply in July and August prior to giving up some of those gains in September, trading sideways in October and then trading lower in November and December prior to the what appears to be the second bottom – exactly at year end 2013 (see chart below).

Gold in U.S. Dollars, Daily, 2 Year – (Thomson Reuters)

Momentum is a powerful force and the short term trend is down and therefore further weakness in the coming days and in June is quite possible.

However, gold’s 14-day relative-strength index fell to 31.2 yesterday. The RSI is an important tool in a traders arsenal. These are the lowest levels since December and being near the 30 level indicates we are due a bounce soon.

Gold frequently sees weakness and bottoms soon after options expiration which took place Tuesday. .
Also, $1,200 should remain support as the $1,200 level is the average cost to produce an ounce of gold globally.

The fundamentals are continuing and heightened geopolitical risk and robust global demand as seen in the recent World Gold Council data. Chinese demand has fallen somewhat in recent weeks but there is now the possibility of the return of Indian gold demand with the newly elected Modi government in India.

While gold is vulnerable technically to further weakness, its fundamentals remain sound. Some of the important gold related stories and developments this week which could yet propel gold higher include Putin’s declaration that Russia and China need to secure their gold and foreign exchange reserves and China’s plans to launch a physical ‘Global Gold Exchange’.

Overnight, ANZ Bank confirmed the story that it is seeking participation in the new international gold exchange in Shanghai. ANZ China CEO was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying “we are very keen to play a role in such a setup.”

Currency wars are heating up again and some of the key developments in recent days and weeks are gold bullish.

In recent weeks, Russia dumped a record amount of US treasuries and Russia’s central bank buys 28 metric tonnes of gold worth $1.4 billion in April alone. Last week Russia and China announced a landmark economic agreement which includes a natural gas deal worth $400 billion and increasing use of their own currencies in bilateral trade.

This week Putin said Russia and China need to secure their gold and currency reserves and Russia set  up the Eurasian Economic Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Armenia are to join within a month and Kyrgyzstan within a year.

This comes against a backdrop of China openly calling for a de-Americanization of the world in recent months and China, Russia, Iran and 21 other countries signing an agreement bolstering cooperation to promote peace, security and stability in Asia.

China is buying natural resources and hard assets globally and investing in infrastructure in Africa and West Asia in order to extract these natural resources. China is importing unprecedented amounts of physical gold and senior Chinese policy makers and officials have gone on record regarding how they view gold as in important strategic and monetary asset.

Thus, while gold is vulnerable to weakness in the short term, the smart money is again accumulating and will use this latest bout of selling to acquire gold at what will in time be seen as bargain prices.

All fiat currencies including the dollar, euro and pound are vulnerable to devaluations. As one astute commentator said on Twitter this week, being able to acquire cheaper gold given the state of the world today is “like being given discounts on life-rafts on the Titanic …”

Special Notice Regarding Reduction In Premiums: Gold Bars Reduced To 1.6% Premium – Click Here

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ryrcGo GoldCore