Saudi Arabia’s Two-Fronted “War”

Saudi Arabia is the middle of two 'wars" – religious (from The Kingdom's perspective, Iran is a large Persian country sitting at the easternmost edge of the Middle East, from where it projects power across the Arab world by manipulating and exploiting the region's Shiite communities and other minorities)

Via Stratfor,

From Saudi Arabia's perspective, Iran is a large Persian country sitting at the easternmost edge of the Middle East, from where it projects power across the Arab world by manipulating and exploiting the region's Shiite communities and other minorities. The Saudis are mostly members of the Salafist movement (a subset of the Sunni branch that is highly sectarian), which only increases their suspicions about Tehran's overall intent. Quite simply, the Saudis see the Shia as deviants trying to undermine Islam.

 

Saudi Arabia hoped that the civil war in Syria would strike a critical blow against Iranian influence in the region. Instead, the conflict has created more problems for Riyadh. Similarly, the expectation that the emergence of the Islamic State would undermine Iranian influence in Iraq and the Levant has proven false. Instead, the group has threatened the Saudis, who have already been had to deal with al Qaeda's influence on the domestic and regional front.

With the Saudis focused on battling the Shia, the Muslim Brotherhood and now the Islamic State, an important development has taken place in Yemen, to Saudi Arabia's immediate south. The Iranian-backed al-Houthi movement is no longer a regional rebel subset of the Zaidi sect; it has become a mainstream national player, seizing the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa in mid-September and continuing to expand.

The Saudis were caught off-guard by the al-Houthi surge in Yemen, a country that has been beholden to Riyadh for decades. The phenomenal rise of the al-Houthis was possible because the Saudis lost influence with the Yemeni tribes and because the old ruling elite in Sanaa had been badly fragmented by the fall of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Saudis feel that while they were negotiating with the Iranians on regional security, Tehran double-crossed them by quietly supporting the al-Houthis, enabling them to impose their will on Sanaa and beyond.

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And geopolitical (it appears to reveal that the kingdom is willing to tolerate Brent prices between USD80-USD90/bbl for a period of 1-2 years in order to achieve two aims: to slow increases in US tight oil production and to pressure other OPEC members to contribute to supply discipline.)

Of course, it's not just religious 'wars', there is now the global oil 'wars' underway – as Stratfor discusses in crucial detail:

*  *  *

As Deutsche Bank notes, Hints of a Saudi strategic shift can be seen in the numbers

The emerging shift in Saudi strategy means that it may be stepping away from its predominant role as the sole provider of swing capacity in the market. This role encompasses both curtailments in times of oversupply as well as increases in response to unplanned supply disruptions. While both activities entail costs either in the form of reduced revenue or idle capacity, the indicated shift should be understood as a rejection of the former rather than the latter, since only Saudi Arabia holds any significant spare capacity. As of last month, Saudi spare capacity is estimated at 2.7 mmb/d against an estimated 0.8 mmb/d for all other OPEC members combined.

 

According to Reuters, this purported shift in strategy has been communicated by Saudi officials in meetings in New York last week. It appears to reveal that the kingdom is willing to tolerate Brent prices between USD80-USD90/bbl for a period of 1-2 years in order to achieve two aims:

  1. to slow increases in US tight oil production and
  2. to pressure other OPEC members to contribute to supply discipline.

If true, this would mark a significant divergence from the acceptable range of prices previously stated by oil minister al-Naimi as being “$100, $110, $95.” The possibility of such a change is made more plausible by analysis carried out by Deutsche Bank Emerging Markets Research which showed that Saudi Arabia is equipped with sufficient government assets to weather the budget deficits which would result from Brent at USD83/bbl for a period of 7-8 years, assuming no changes to nominal spending, Figure 12.

 


 

*  *  *

While North American production cannot be entirely suppressed by Saudi Arabia, it appears its goals are to slow it dramatically as Reuters confirms their comment that The Kingdom "will accept oil prices below $90 per barrel, and perhaps down to $80, for as long as a year or two".

As DB continues, while Saudi efforts to preserve market share may be viewed as pure conjecture, recent data does suggest efforts are underway to preserve market share.

 

As a consequence, total OPEC production relative to its 30 mmb/d quota has risen from virtual compliance with the quota from January to May, to one where as of last month the cartel is producing between 700-900 kb/d above its agreed production allocation.

 

…and we can observe that the differential of Saudi Arabia’s Arab Light blend versus the Oman/Dubai average for Asian deliveries has fallen sharply from a premium of USD1.65/bbl for September loadings to a discount of USD1.05/bbl for November loadings. This suggests that Saudi Aramco is determined to maintain current levels of exports at the expense of sales prices achieved. This represents the sharpest discount since the -USD1.25/bbl level observed in December 2008, during a quarter in which global oil demand contracted by 3.0 mmb/d, in contrast to the current quarter when we still expect oil demand to grow by 0.8 mmb/d.

 

 

 

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The question is – how long can the US Shale Oil industry remain afloat if the current depressed prices are not transitory but long-term…




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Chart Of The Day: US Decouples From The Rest Of The World… And From The US Itself

The global economy is like a jetliner that needs all of its engines operational to take off and steer clear of clouds and storms. Unfortunately, as Nouriel Roubini tells The Guardian, only one of its four engines is functioning properly: the Anglosphere (the United States and its close cousin, the United Kingdom). As Roubini continues, the question is whether and for how long the global economy can remain aloft on a single engine. Weakness in the rest of the world implies a stronger dollar, which will invariably weaken US growth. The deeper the slowdown in other countries and the higher the dollar rises, the less the US will be able to decouple from the funk everywhere else, even if domestic demand seems robust. But it’s not just the rest of the world that is decoupling from US growth… as the following uncomfortable chart shows, so is a crucial pillar of monetary policy transmission, consumer wealth perception, and economic stability – the US housing market itself.

 

The decoupling… globally (China, Europe, and Japan all seeing GDP estinmates slashed)

For the moment, at least, Barclays notes it appears that the momentum of the U.S. and the rest of the world will continue to move in different directions.

 The end of QE could create risks for credit, but the divergence in growth suggests that those risks are likely to be experienced more keenly outside of the U.S.

But as Roubini concludes, serious challenges lie ahead,

Private and public debts in advanced economies are still high and rising – and are potentially unsustainable, especially in the eurozone and Japan. Rising inequality is redistributing income to those with a high propensity to save (the rich and corporations), and is exacerbated by capital-intensive, labor-saving technological innovation.

 

This combination of high debt and rising inequality may be the source of the secular stagnation that is making structural reforms more politically difficult to implement. If anything, the rise of nationalistic, populist, and nativist parties in Europe, North America, and Asia is leading to a backlash against free trade and labour migration, which could further weaken global growth.

 

Rather than boosting credit to the real economy, unconventional monetary policies have mostly lifted the wealth of the very rich – the main beneficiaries of asset reflation. But now reflation may be creating asset-price bubbles, and the hope that macro-prudential policies will prevent them from bursting is so far just that – a leap of faith.

 

Fortunately, rising geopolitical risksa Middle East on fire, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Hong Kong’s turmoil, and China’s territorial disputes with its neighbors – together with geo-economic threats from, say, Ebola and global climate change, have not yet led to financial contagion. Nonetheless, they are slowing down capital spending and consumption, given the option value of waiting during uncertain times.

 

So the global economy is flying on a single engine, the pilots must navigate menacing storm clouds, and fights are breaking out among the passengers. If only there were emergency crews on the ground.

*  *  *

Which leaves us with The Chart of the Day…

But now the decoupling from reality is happening domestically! (real Fixed Private Residential Investment dropped 1.1% YoY… GDP didn’t)

 

Completely destroying the ‘US is strong’ meme…and, as The Global Macro Investors’ Raoul Paul pointedly remarks, this is starting to smell as if a shit-storm is brewing…

The meme of US economic strength and decoupling from the world has consequences…

 

At some point very soon the dollar is going to break out and EVERYTHING you know is going to change. Everything you’ve understood to be normal and stable in your investment portfolio is going to be as risky as hell. All of your core assumptions are going to be tested and thrown out as false assumptions. Yield trades, once the safe haven, are going to kill you. Anything that has any carry element or any exposure to currency moves will create huge losses.

 

Why am I so damned alarmist? Well because as ever, we’ve seen it all before.

 

The reason it is going to happen rapidly and maybe in a disorderly fashion is because if the dollar moves much higher, we will begin to see an unwind or THE unwind of the biggest carry trade in history. This is the flip side to all that QE. This is the flip side to the China miracle too. Multiple trillions of dollars are going to need to be bought or extinguished in this unwind, and that is going to create complete chaos.

 

 

Sadly, there is no such thing as free money in the real world. There is always a price to be paid. Self-reinforcing virtual circles eventually become the spiral of doom.

 

I think we find ourselves at the tipping point of the spiral of doom.

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Dysfunctional America

Via Paul Craig Roberts,

If you require more evidence that the United States is a dysfunctional society, observe American elections. Election season is slander season. Each party’s attack teams focus on misrepresenting, defaming, and ridiculing the opposing party’s candidates. Attack ads have replaced debates and any discussion of what the issues are, or should be, and how candidates perceive the public’s interest. Each attack team tells lies designed to enrage various voters about the other team’s candidate.

Whoever is elected is indebted not to voters but to the special interests that provided the campaign money. Once elected the official serves the private interest groups that put the official in office. In America the government can be bought and sold just like everything else. In its Citizens United ruling, a Republican Supreme Court put its stamp of approval on the right of corporations to purchase the US government.

Each state has its own dominant interest groups that win every election. In Florida real estate developers routinely defeat the environment and local communities. Developers have even been known to form organizations that pose as conservation supporters in order to misrepresent and defeat conservation measures.

Yet, despite their long string of losses to special interests, voters still participate in elections. I once read a theory that elections are a form of entertainment. President Clinton’s encounter with the young woman on MTV–”boxers or briefs”–is one indication of the lack of seriousness that Americans bring to politics.

Perhaps the lighter moment of a young woman’s interest in the president’s underwear should be cherished. The Clinton years will be remembered as scandal after scandal with dark events unresolved and covered up. The Clinton years were transformative. For those who don’t remember and those too young at the time to be aware, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s book, The Secret Life of Bill Clinton: The Unreported Stories (1997), will be an eye-opener. Perhaps the Democrats should read the book before nominating Hillary as the party’s presidential candidate.

Evans-Pritchard was Washington bureau chief for the Sunday Telegraph, one of the main British newspapers. He was stunned by how the American media ceased to function during the Clinton years. The Clinton years gave us such events as the federal government’s murder of the Branch Davidians in their Waco compound and subsequent coverup, the Oklahoma City bombing and coverup, and the coverup of the apparent murder of White House counsel Vincent Foster.

 

Almost everyone who paid attention saw coverups, not investigations, of these extraordinary events. Evans-Pritchard was one who payed attention, and what he saw did not pass muster. Yet, there was no press asking questions.

 

For example, the official story was that Tim McVeigh was the “lone nut” responsible for blowing up the Murrah Federal Office Building with a truck bomb. Yet, at McVeigh’s trial the prosecution did not call a single witness who could place McVeigh in Oklahoma City on the day of the bombing. “This is a rather astonishing fact,” writes Evans-Pritchard, and indeed it is. The reason the prosecution could not provide a witness to place MvVeigh at the scene of the crime is that the many witnesses all reported seeing McVeigh in the company of other men, and the prearranged official story was that McVeigh was alone. The FBI and the prosecution had to make this case, not conduct a real investigation and discover what really happened.

 

Experts who have examined the Oklahoma City bombing have concluded that the truck bomb was cover for explosives set inside the building. For example, US Air Force munitions expert General Benton K. Partin provided an extensive and detailed study and wrote to the US Senate: “The attached report contains conclusive proof that the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, was not caused solely by the truck bomb. Evidence shows that the massive destruction was primarily the result of four demolition charges placed at critical structural points at the third floor level.”

 

Miquel Rodriguez, the associate independent counsel assigned the investigation of Deputy White House Counsel Vincent Foster’s mysterious death resigned after four months convinced that he was dealing with a FBI coverup and that his investigation was being sabotaged by personnel within his own office. The FBI’s official story differed completely from the story of the witness who discovered Foster’s body. Again, as in Oklahoma, the FBI’s case required the creation of a make-believe scenario at odds with the evidence. With no interference from a silent press, the FBI created the story that was needed. Evans-Pritchard wrote that the Foster case was “taboo for American journalists. In private, many concede that the official story is unbelievable, but they will not broach it in print.”

 

When Americans think of Clinton era scandals, they recall “Whitewater” and Clinton’s sexual escapades with White House intern Monica Lewinsky. Evans-Pritchard writes that these two scandals were small potatoes compared to the Waco, Oklahoma City, and Vincent Foster coverups. Evans-Pritchard concludes that these minor events were used by the press to distract the public and perhaps Congress from inquiring into FBI coverups of criminal acts.

I remember asking my Wall Street Journal colleague Robert Bartley why he put so much energy and editorial ink into Whitewater, a minor scandal involving some real estate payoffs to the Clintons that did not pan out. Serious events were ignored while Clinton’s affair with Lewinsky became a matter of impeachment.

From Clinton to George W. Bush and Obama was another transformative change. The crimes of the Clinton regime were covered up and not acknowledged. The crimes of the Bush and Obama regimes are openly acknowledged by the presidents themselves and by their attorney generals who assert that the “war on terror” frees presidents from the Constitution and from domestic and international statutory law. Thus, we have indefinite detention, torture and loss of protection against self-incrimination, destruction of privacy, and execution of US citizens without due process of law.

Almost overnight the US government became unaccountable, released from constitutional and legal constraints. Elections serve only to validate the unaccountability of government.




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Emily Ekins on Third-Party Senate Candidates Giving Establishment Republicans Conniptions

To take control of
the Senate this November, Republicans need a net gain of six Senate
seats to take control of Congress, but third party candidates in
North Carolina, Kansas, South Dakota, Georgia, (and sort of
Louisiana) may undermine this goal.

In North Carolina, a libertarian pizza deliveryman could
determine the race between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis. An
independent in Kansas is leading the Republican incumbent Pat
Roberts in many recent polls, also with a libertarian who could
influence the outcome.  An independent in South Dakota has
introduced uncertainty in what should have been considered an “in
the bag” seat for Republicans. A libertarian and a tea partier
could force both Louisiana and Georgia into a run-off election.
Strikingly in Virginia, the Libertarian candidate is capturing more
votes than the Republican among young voters.

While it is true third-party candidates typically don’t win,
serious third party challengers can still identify the major
parties’ vulnerabilities based on which types of voters they peel
away. For Republican candidates struggling to close the deal with
the public, writes Reason Foundation polling director Emily Ekins,
liberty-minded small government views may be the missing
ingredient.

View this article.

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Bank Of America Psychopath Murderer’s Automated Email Reply Says He Is An “Insane Psychopath”

Well, if alleged Bank of America prostitute killer, as described earlier, intends to plead insanity to all charges, he is one step ahead of the prosecution already. Below is the automated reply that emails sent to Rurik Jutting’s Bank of America e-mail address are getting, per Bloomberg.

I am out of the office. Indefinitely.

 

For urgent enquiries, or indeed any enquiries, please contact someone who is not an insane psychopath. For escalation please contact God, though suspect the devil will have custody. [Last line only really worked if I had followed through..]”

A random sample of emails sent to Federal Reserve officials shows that for now Jutting is the only one telling the truth.




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Keynesian Shangri-La From Myth To Reality

Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

In less than the time it takes for a chrysalis to release one of life’s remarkable transformations, many once called “capitalists” woke to find the world they once new changed into something only dreamed or told in folklore.

Where business models resembling unicorns abounded along with rainbows in their resembling equivalent of over-arching ETF’s. All available in a multitude of hues and proportions so plentiful: It was hard for one not to well up when contemplating. For in this new fairytale land there must certainly be a pot of gold at the end of every “rainbow.” However, one would be mistaken. For one must remember this is a “Keynesian Shangri-la” and gold here is useless. (insert choir music here)

Today, at the end of these self propagated rainbows lies a Central Bank ready and willing to print as much money as one needs to see those vivid colors so plainly; only the term Technicolor® seems appropriate as a descriptor. (no special glasses or headset required)

Although the above is a bit tongue in cheek what it isn’t sadly to say: is fiction.

We now have entered a time where what you once knew or thought about capitalism is out the window. At least when it comes to the global financial markets.

What was once the bastion of “free market capitalism” has now metamorphosed into what the devotee’s of Keynesian economics have been chomping at the bit to unleash and install. And that day is – now here.

The only bug in their soup they forgot to remember while they’ve been drooling in anticipation, waiting for its possible arrival is this: Be careful what you wish for. For you just might get it.

The Keynesian argument has been made for decades. I wonder if the man (John Maynard Keynes) would be impressed with just how much his ideology is so vehemently held in the halls of academia and political circles. Many religious devotees pale in comparison.

Once upon time people believed in free market capitalism. The relationship with the money supply. The economy, markets, interest rates and their effects on keeping governments spending in line. All that and more is now out the window along with the old draperies. No need for those silly viewpoints nor those curtains because there’s no longer a need or even the inclination as to try to hide.

You don’t need anymore proof to show this over enveloping viewpoint than the front-page story highlighting none other than Keynes himself with the headline on Bloomberg Businessweek™: Stimulate This!

But maybe it’s the subtitle that really gets to the heart of the matter: “John Maynard Keynes has the last laugh on what works for the global economy”

Oh that tagline just might be the very thing that produces more tears than laughter in the end. As I stated earlier “Be careful what you wish for. For you just might get it.”

A few years ago I made this point when trying to get others to understand just how far the interventionist monetary policies had permeated the capital markets. I remember people taking great issue with me as if I “was going too far.” It seems now in retrospect just maybe – I hadn’t gone far enough. Here’s a few quotes from that article:  Welcome To Keynesian Shangri-La

 “Valuations – schmaluations. Please spare me. It might make for good time fill in the financial media’s “power rotation” of talking heads however, to anyone with just a fair understanding of business. The economy can’t be spitting out numbers just over stall speed of a recession with all time highs in the stock markets as something that’s even close to resembling healthy.”

To the Keynesian or the government has all the solutions devotee, everything looks just as it should. Turn on the television, radio, or pick up a paper and the headline reads, “Record High!”

So here we are just a few years later to find ourselves floating in a sea of printed or digitized dollars looking for a home. And that home is in an increasingly shoddily built, underpopulated, (as expressed via volume) maintenance plagued financial arena know as “The markets.”(remember how many times the markets broke this week alone?)

But it would seem we have traded one slumlord for another. Exit the Federal Reserve and please join me in a warm round of applause for the Bank of Japan. (insert hysterical cheering crowd of Keynesian economists and lackeys here)

What has now garnered the moniker of “Banzainomics” leaves no doubt that we have entered a time in financial history that belongs totally and squarely upon the shoulders of Keynes.

Problem is – where Atlas may shrug, there’s a real and true strength as to carry the weight. For Atlas it’s about risk reward. For this new Keynesian metaphor? When and if a shrug is needed; it won’t be out of risk reward.

It’ll be out of losing its grip and collapsing under the very weight they told – and sold – everyone on. The idea, that if they would only “give him the ball” tranquility and fear from “capitalistic dogma” along with its pervasive repercussions would finally be eradicated.

Well – Now he/they got it.

Problem is without a never-ending supply of steroids and other substances (in the form of monetary policies whether legal or not) the myth of strength will transform into the reality of weakness.

Then as he falls apart he may decide that rather than taking another injection he’ll just shrug the weight off and reach for the remote or XBOX™. For remember, in a Keynesian world: Hard work is for Atlas, not him/them. Besides, can’t one get that injection and still be on the couch? In a Keynes world. Why not?

So why does this matter to today’s entrepreneur or other business people. Easy…

So now you’ve created this great widget, company, what ever that you’ve grown through hard work and more where you believe it’s now time to access the capital markets.

There’s a problem now. Those markets aren’t for “capitalists” any longer. They’re for “Keynesians” and if you aren’t the right investment, or in the right ETF – you’re toast.

You might have a great company, but if a Central Bank deems there’s “No money” to be had this month, you’ve got crap.

The flip side is also the same. Say you’ve built a better mouse trap than your competitor? Sorry, they’re in the right ETF and you’re not? Sorry – No “soup” for you.

Oh that’s nonsense you say “you’re being over simplistic.” Fair enough, but there was also a time little more than 4 years ago where “monetizing the debt” was laughed at.

If you even made the claim you were shouted down as some “tin foil cap wearing, conspiracy theory, fear mongering, blabber mouth.” And now? Not only proven fact, but stated as an “effective policy tool” aka QE.

Which leads us all right back to today.

For decades Keynesians have deplored true “capitalism” as a form of cancer than must be eradicated, for it does nothing but bring on booms and busts leaving devastation in its tracks. Where the altruistic Keynesians profess if only they were under the world in place of Atlas; they would show one and all exactly what they are capable of doing. And today – here we are. It’s their world.

For over two hundred years the strength of Atlas (warts and all) has brought about the greatest economic super power in all forms of measurements from quality of life, to military strength to protect that life.

Yes there are booms, and yes there are busts. But they are necessary and needed just as the underbrush in a tranquil forest at times needs to burn off to make way for newer even better growth.

During these times it seems there is nothing but devastation and turmoil. So too does the inner workings in a capitalistic market place mirror this.

It’s in the folly of thinking it can be surgically dissected and removed from out of the cycle where the Keynesians get into real trouble. For the more they meddle, the worse the ramifications, like an over eager plastic surgeon stating “We can fix that last nip tuck – with another nip tuck.”

Then they’ll blame others in a fury of finger-pointing for why “their meddling” doesn’t or didn’t work. “You didn’t allow us too spend enough, or, at all.” However that is no longer the case.

Not only do they have the check book, but the credit cards, safe deposit keys, and even a few neighbors assets they’ve yet to realize are gone. It truly is “all in their hands.” (and pockets)

Not only do they have the above, they have the whole ball. (Yes, the globe – as in the global financial markets)

Here we are at never before seen in the history of mankind market highs. Not only is there so much money floating around, it’s been decided by another Central Bank to increase that level. For they have taken that immortal line given by President Kennedy “A rising tide lifts all boats” to an even near unimaginable level.

Forget boats for we are truly in the Keynsian Shangri-la of: Those that have – those that have not – and those that have yachts!

The inherent problem to the Keynesian model also lies within the very thing most coveted by the Keynes devotee: Who do you blame when it all falls apart? You can’t blame capitalism or Atlas. You’ve shrugged him off. It’s now all on your shoulders.

For well over two centuries the Atlas’ of the world proved more than willing, as well as capable, to bear the burden of holding up the economic world. As of today the marvel of Keynesian economics is now front and center with no question as to who is in control. Without a doubt: You’re in control.

Since 2008 those policies and practices have been implemented with near little opposition. And now with the other Central Banks ipso facto picking up the baton even before it hits the ground proves; we are now living in a “Keynesian Shangri-la.”

You’re now just 5 years into complete and total economic control via Keynesian policies, while simultaneously gaining even more followers and devotees. This truly is a historic time we are witnessing.

I leave you with this one thought for its something I penned a long time ago when all this meddling first began…

“Markets right themselves with pain… That’s Capitalism.

 

Back room manipulation to avoid pain only increases the severity of the pain to be felt down the road.”

You’re in control now and best of luck. The rest of us will go on about our lives in business dealing the best way we can as to navigate this new world you’ve created, but one small warning if I may.

Since you now have the weight of the financial world on your shoulders you’re not going to do the one thing you most want…

The ability to pat yourselves on the back.




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A Kept Culture

A Kept Culture

By

Cognitive Dissonance

 

 

My thinking on a variety of subjects has changed over time and I expect my understanding will continue to evolve as new information, knowledge and propaganda enters my orbit. Contrary to popular belief this is a good thing because it means my mindset is not as static and rigid as some, though it is most certainly worse than others.

One of the great questions of the ages is why we, and by ‘we’ I mean anyone other than ‘they/them’, tolerate the abuse we receive from the hand of our masters. While the mistreatment is most often handed down on an individual basis, “We the Abused” outnumber the abusers by at least 10 to 1. And I count among that ‘1’ all those who enable, support and carry out the abuse. So why do we tolerate something we can clearly stop if we so wish?

Earlier on in my ongoing awakening, a never ending process of self reflection and discovery, I would sometimes use the derogatory term ‘sheeple’ to describe both a people and a condition. I was grasping for a simple all encompassing answer to a complex problem, and believing that the vast masses were blissfully ignorant while passively grazing upon an array of consumer goods satisfied my need to understand what to me at the time was incomprehensible.

This is not to say some are not exactly as described. In fact at one point in my life I fit the bill perfectly, totally consumed in my naval gazing and mostly oblivious to not only my own lot in life, but those around me. As a single parent raising my boy alone for seventeen years, I was righteously indignant if anyone dared to question my focus. After all, I was doing it for the child(ren).

But deep down I knew that at best my explanation was inadequate and at worse deeply flawed. While at several points in my life I was a ‘sheeple’, the description did not fit all my situations all the time. I lived in, and existed within, a far more complex world than could be described using simple concepts and ideas. Like a broken clock I was on the rare occasion quite accurate, but for the vast majority of the time I was dead wrong. I suspect my view was biased by familiarity both with myself and others who fit the description. But more importantly, it was comforting to believe I understood the problem and that I wasn’t ‘it’.

So I continued to search for an answer to THE question, though this time I was more thoroughly grounded after recognizing my desire for a simplistic answer and my need to absolve myself from blame or culpability. This self examination and understanding led directly to my explorations into denial, both of the self and of the collective.

This seemed to make more sense to me and quite frankly still does as a significant contributor to this issue. Denial is infinitely customizable, scalable and adaptable. One can be in total, partial and minimal denial about a subject or subjects and our denial can ebb and flow as circumstances and conditions, including our anxiety and fear, dictate.

We are never completely denial free unless we can claim to have cleared all the Cognitive Dissonance cobwebs from the mind, an assertion I would not make since I stumble across, and become entangled within, new ones on a reoccurring basis. If anything as I continue to grow I find more, not less, though they are increasingly more subtle and nuanced.

But while denial more completely describes the present state of the human condition, it still falls short of encompassing the infinite variety of daily life within the Insane Asylum. How does one cope with being in a near constant state of loss and grief, of borderline depression, while still ‘functioning’ on a day to day basis? In many respects we are endlessly circling the five stages of loss and grief so nicely described in the Kubler-Ross model, yet clearly on a higher, more complex, level of existence because it encompasses both the individual and the collective.

 

JFK Funeral

The JFK Funeral – Collective loss and grief

 

An example of the individual/collective loss and grief dynamic in play was the days and weeks after the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Words fail to adequately explain what the nation on all levels experienced at that time. There were few, other than the very young, who were not emotionally moved either directly by the loss or by the collective pall the country entered immediately afterward. As a child of seven years, while I did not understand what was going on, I was definitely moved by the emotional trauma others were dealing with at the time.

However, Kubler-Ross describes a onetime devastating loss or the recognition of an impending loss and the process of navigating that loss and grief, while I am seeking an explanation of a never ending existence within the loss and grief process because the ‘loss’ relates to, and is an integral part of, our daily living. I am speaking directly to the psychological and emotional consequences of the overall condition of our existence rather than onetime events that disturb our existence.

I suspect using the term ‘loss’ is inaccurate or incomplete, at least in the literal sense of the word. While a Lion captured in the wild and then confined to a cage at the zoo ‘knows’ what it has lost, a lion born into captivity never really is aware of a ‘loss’. But both lions may still suffer from the same neurosis which springs from the sense, the knowing, that something not quite definable (and more importantly unchangeable) is wrong.   

It is my supposition that “We the People” also suffer from the same loss, the same trauma, as the captive born lion does, an inner ache and a growing awareness that something is very wrong with the world and our life within it. Because the reality we live within is the only reality we know, most of what is wrong is not readily apparent to the majority of us since this is just the way things are and everyone else lives more or less the same life as we do. A failure of our imagination is partially to blame for the sense we all have of being trapped with nowhere to go and no way to change.

The other day Mrs. Cog used a term to describe a fictional character from an old movie. She said the character was a ‘kept man’ and I instantly understood what she meant, though it would not have mattered if she had said ‘kept woman’. In so many ways the relationship between the ‘keeper’ and the ‘kept’ is remarkably similar to our ‘kept culture’ and the basis for our dour outlook and sense of impending doom and depression, even if it only lingers under the surface of our awareness. Let me attempt to further explain.

There is always an implicit, and often an explicit, agreement of understanding between the keeper and the kept that pretty much spells out the duties of each party as well as the rewards and benefits of the arrangement. With regard to our kept culture, on a broader scale the general terms and conditions of the agreement are spelled out in grade school, then further defined and refined in college, while the specifics of each situation are expressed by each employer/benefactor. Here is what you ‘do’ and this is your ‘compensation’ for doing so.

While most, if not all, of the power remains in the hands of the keeper, it is to the benefit of both parties that an illusion of equality is inferred between the keeper and the kept in order for the kept to feel they have ‘agreed’ to, and are ‘willing’ to, fully cooperate with the keeper to fulfill the terms of the agreement. You catch more flies (and keep more kept) with honey than vinegar. But make no mistake about it, this agreement can only be abridged or fundamentally altered with the consent of the keeper and not by the kept, thus demonstrating where the real power resides.

On those occasions when the kept strays beyond the boundaries laid out in the agreement or angers the keeper, it is then that the power carefully hidden from view and veiled behind propaganda, public protocols and cultural ritual is exhibited in a manner that leaves no doubt who is in charge. Just as the keeper may afford the kept a credit card or regular cash disbursements in order to further the illusion the kept is free and independent, those liberties can and will be quickly rescinded if for no other reason than as a reminder of who holds the power in the relationship.

 

To Protect and Serve.......Whom?

To Protect and Serve……Whom?

 

So too the power of the state, its sharp edges deliberately smoothed by propagandized historical storytelling and mass media assurances, is obvious to anyone looking down the barrel of a gun or being summoned to court. There is no doubt which party is expected to submit when the keepers of the peace and the purse pull you over or summon you for an audit. Ultimately the authority of the keepers is derived from the threat of force, though it is in the best interest of all parties involved to keep this fact carefully obscured behind a thousand sheer veils.

On the surface it would appear the participants never change in these agreements until death do they part. And for some this is the case. But what helps cement the illusion of freedom for the kept, and magnificent benevolence of the keepers, is the seeming ability to change the conditions of the agreement, with each able to leave in order to form a more perfect union with another kept or keeper. But while individual conditions and connections may change, the overall framework remains the same.

This is similar to a formalized agreement between a players’ union (for example the NFL Players Association) and the sport’s organizing consortium (i.e. the National Football League) which outlines the rules that govern the overall relationship between players and league (the Collective Bargaining Agreement). This enables both parties to negotiate everything and anything so long as it follows the general rules and regulations of the governing agreement. So too, the kept and keeper may both change lovers at will so long as they do not switch roles or do anything else that violates the governing agreement parameters. In some ways the keeper is just as constrained as the kept.

Of course the keeper retains a greater degree of flexibility with regard to timing, selection and opportunity, whereas the kept may not overtly ‘select’ a new keeper, but must ultimately be selected by the keeper. The kept may burnish his/her resume (appearance, social and sexual skills, education and training, athletic ability) to increase desirability. But with the market flooded with available (read cheap) kept individuals, ultimately the market is controlled by the keepers. In practice a keeper keeps more than one and often dozens, though there may be a favorite the keeper returns to time and time again.

So while there is some degree of certainty for the kept so long as they remain productive and compliant, there is still a good deal of risk realized from being kept, and most of this risk is arbitrary and unspoken. Needless to say this creates a smoldering sense of anxiety within the kept and over the long term contributes greatly to their neurosis. Essentially being kept is simply another form of slavery, one driven mostly by the willing participation of the kept in service to the keeper. Thus we witness modern day plantation living in all its glory and profit.

 

Future Apple HQ

The future Apple headquarters – Modern plantation living

 

I could go on and on with further examples of how “We the People” are a kept culture, including an in-depth exploration of the psychology underlying it. But why take all the fun out of it by rubbing our noses in our own excrement. The fact remains we for the most part willingly participate in our own slavery because the perks are too good to reject and the pain is not great enough to compel us to shake off the chains that binds us to our own servitude.

While I certainly understand how powerless the kept believe we/they are, and by extension how powerful the keepers remain, this is all an illusion designed to keep the kept (and in many respects the keepers themselves) mesmerized, seduced and sated. The powerful impression of system rigidity and momentum serves to maintain the status quo.

We rarely consider casting off our own chains because we consider our binds tied to everyone else’s and the system itself, thus exponentially complicating the problem in our minds. We conflate our personal condition with the overall systemic condition and vice versa, thus perpetuating the illusion with very little energy introduced to actually change our lives. After all, you can’t fight city hall……right? The funny thing is you don’t need to fight city hall to reformulate your ‘self’, just the desire and courage to do so.

If ever there was a perpetual motion machine invented, it is the social ‘agreement’ I just described. The small amount of energy introduced from outside the closed loop system to keep it churning is minor compared to the amount self produced by the active participation of both the kept and keeper as well as that generated by the ever evolving parameters within the much larger collective governing agreement. This energy, whether internal or external, is expressed primarily as emotion and when multiplied by 325 million, or 7 billion, is quite frankly the most powerful man made force in the universe.

While we blame the keepers for our kept condition, it is we who are ultimately to blame for our slavery primarily because we expect that we must change the world when all we need do is change ourselves. I often ask those around me, “How do you eat an elephant”, a seemingly impossible task. The answer is, of course, one bite at a time. But in order to do so we must be brutally honest with ourselves and recognize our contributing role in the collective farce and the personal conditions we must change if we are to slip the binds that tie.

The perks that come with being kept will not survive the breaking of the keep. And it is our denial of this fact that greatly contributes to the power of the keepers and of our being continuously kept. Pain must be endured and several steps back must be tolerated, even encouraged, if we are to eventually move forward. Centuries of prior collective experience and memory cannot be erased in days, weeks, even months. Nor can we expect others to blaze the trail if we are unwilling to walk the path, alone if necessary. Stop waiting for others to start the process and take your first bite of true freedom.

 

11-02-2014

Cognitive Dissonance

 

As the kept, there is no possibility of an exit. Only a promotion to house slave.

No Exit




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1DLCo3g Cognitive Dissonance

Rob Montz Interviews Jason Brennan About Why Capitalism Is Good and Socialism Sucks

Jason Brennan, a professor of
philosophy at Georgetown, is the author of the new book Why Not
Capitalism?
, which argues that capitalism works because of
humanity’s inherent lack of kindness and generosity. Reason TV’s
Rob Montz spoke with Brennan about human goodness, the flaws in
socialism, and more.

View this article.

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Was this Campaign Season the Nastiest Ever?

Candidate x is a flip-flopping, war-mongering, power-hungry
liar. Candidate y is an entitled elitest with no work ethic, and
also a liar. That’s what this year’s attack ads would
lead us to believe.

But was this campaign season exceptionally
nasty?

Reason TV presents a look back at the campaign ads of
yesteryear. 

The story was originally published on October 28,
2010. The original text is below:

Have this year’s negative political ads really “taken
dirty to a whole new level, as CNN’s Anderson Cooper frets? Is a
“return to civility…a relic of a bygone era,” as President Barack
Obama laments?

Er, not exactly. 

If anonymous political speech, the other widely decried
villain of this political season, helped found the United States,
attack ads are as American as apple pie. If you fancy yourself a
patriot or a history buff, you will most certainly approve this
message, which is taken from statements made by, for, and against
the nation’s founders.

Approximately 1.45 minutes. Written and produced by
Meredith Bragg. Voiced by Caleb Brown, Michael C. Moynihan, and
Austin Bragg.

Check out “The Positives of Negative Campaigning,” why
“Attack Ads Are Good For You.” and Reason’s 2006 list of the “Top
10 Dirtiest Political Campaigns” in U.S. history.

For links to those stories and historical sources of the statements
made in the video go to 
http://ift.tt/1wV0uqb…

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