Month: November 2014

While the Obama administration continues its schizophrenic approach in countering the threat of Ebola spreading on US soil, on one hand demanding that states eliminate mandatory quarantines of citizens in their Ebola response protocol since a ban on travel from west Africa is considered out of the question, while on the other the Pentagon just approved a mandatory 3 week “isolation” of troops returning from Ebola missions, yesterday Canada announced a far more practical solution: America’s northern neighbor said it was suspending visa applications for residents of Ebola-hit nations in a bid to prevent the deadly virus from crossing its borders.

As AFP reports, where the US was unwilling to halt inbound travel from impaired west-African nations, Canada had no such qualms and Immigration Canada said authorities would not process any visa applications from individuals who had been in an Ebola-affected nation “within three months prior to the date of the application.”

“Canada has been a leader in the international efforts to respond to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa,” said Chris Alexander, Canada’s immigration minister.

 

“The precautionary measures announced today build on actions we have taken to protect the health and safety of Canadians here at home.”

 

A statement said immigration authorities would also not issue new visa applications or process existing applications from foreign nationals intending to travel to an Ebola-affected nation.

 

The rule did not affect applications for visa renewals of foreign nationals who are already in Canada, the statement said.

 

Although Canada has had several alerts for possible Ebola cases, the country has yet to record its first confirmed incidence of the disease.

 

“Our number one priority is to protect Canadians,” Canadian health minister Rona Ambrose said in a statement.

It remains to be seen if an inbound travel ban, which is effectively what Canada’s action is, will have any impact on disease spread: over the past month health experts, at least in the US, have been unanimously vocal in saying it’s a bad idea that could backfire. Still, it doesn’t appear to be so bad to prevent Canada from trying it out. Meanwhile, the CDC’s Frieden announced in mid-October that roughly 100 to 150 persons from Ebola infected countries enter the U.S. daily.

The good news is that while the Ebola epidemic continues to rage in west Africa, resulting in nearly 5000 deaths as of yesterday…

… the lack of any adverse new developments in the US in the past week has pushed the topic of the deadly virus away from the front pages. One hopes this isn’t merely a brief lull ahead of what is shaping up to be the busiest holiday season for air travel yet.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1tt72gL Tyler Durden

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

John Anderson, an American tourist from San Clemente, California, was driving down a poorly-maintained highway when he saw flashing lights in his rearview mirror.

 

After a brief exchange with the local police officer, Anderson was shocked when the cop started searching his vehicle.

 

Anderson had $25,180 in US dollar cash in the car, which by the way was not a crime according to the local laws.

 

When the cop saw it, he told Anderson that we would take it and threatened him with arrest if he protested.

 

Anderson couldn’t believe it. This is the sort of stuff you always hear about in these third world countries—corrupt cops and state robbery.

 

Ultimately Anderson gave in; the cop let him go and did not charge him with a crime, but took every last penny in the vehicle.

 

And for the last two years, Anderson has been trying to unsuccessfully fight it in the country’s Kangaroo court system.

Clearly we should all avoid going to such dangerously corrupt third world countries.

Except in this case, Anderson was in the United States of America. And he is far from being the only victim of this highway robbery known as Civil Asset Forfeiture.

Since 9/11, police forces in the Land of the Free made over 62,000 seizures without charging anyone with any crime, stealing $2.5 billion in cash alone.

The cost of taking legal action against the government is so high, that only about 17% of the victims actually challenged the seizures.

And even then, only 41% of those that challenged have been able to get their money back.

This means that the government has a better than 93% success rate in outright theft.

This is worse than mafia—it’s blatant theft with impunity from the people that are sworn to protect and serve. It’s the kind of thing that is thought to only occur in heinously corrupt countries.

Here’s the good news: many people are waking up to the reality that they’re not living in a free country.

They are starting to understand what I call ‘the criminalization of existence.’

Every last detail of our lives is regulated—what we can/cannot put in our bodies, whether we can collect rainwater or unplug from the grid, how we are allowed to educate our own children, etc.

Driving this point home, a Tennessee woman was actually thrown in jail earlier this month for ignoring a city citation to trim some overgrown bushes in her yard.

This isn’t freedom.

The irony is that, even though many people are starting to realize this, they’re looking to the very institution that has enslaved them to solve the problem.

It is their own government that has created this system.

 

It is the government that passed US Code section 983 (Rules for Civil Forfeiture), allowing the police to commit highway robbery.

 

It is the government that continues to arrogantly, brazenly spy on every citizen despite overwhelming public outcry.

 

It is the government that continues to bring forth new regulation at an absolutely astounding rate.

Just today (this is 100% true), the US federal government published an eye-popping 490 pages of new rules, proposals, and regulatory notices.

To give you a little taste, today’s regulations include:

• Stringent requirements for properly handling spearmint oil;

• New tolerance specifications for a-alkyl-w-hydroxypoly sulfate

• Additional powers awarded to the Department of Education to decide “whether certain postsecondary educational programs prepare students for gainful employment.”

• A decision to centrally manage the 2014 ‘total allowable catch of Pacific Cod’ in the Bering Sea.

There’s even a new rule upholding fines for unauthorized playing of digital recordings.

You can’t make this stuff up—they are regulating nearly everything.

It’s government that does this. They are the problem, not the solution.

Looking to government to solve the problem that they themselves created is completely irrational. They are incapable of righting themselves.

The solution – the power – is with the individual.

All the tools and all the resources to distance yourself from this system already exist.

On one hand, there’s always the possibility of leaving. The American Dream is still alive and well… it’s just no longer in the United States. Not to mention all the financial, business, investment, and lifestyle opportunities for the taking.

But even if you stay, there are dozens of ways to take back your freedom.

For example, why hold 100% of your savings and assets in that jurisdiction when they could easily confiscate everything?

There are so many great, safe jurisdictions in the world to bank, to invest, to own property, and to store assets. And you can set all of this up without leaving town.

The solutions are out there. It’s time to consider them before becoming a statistic.

P.S. Here’s more proof that the official inflation numbers are completely phony… yet another market that has reached an all time high.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/10IrZZW Tyler Durden

Presented with no comment…

 

 

Source: Investors

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1wRQC0b Tyler Durden

Prepare to once again hear the word “decoupling” a whole lot more.

The reason is that while the US economy is supposedly on an upward tear after the 3.5% Q3 GDP print (thanks to the war against ISIS sending defense spending soaring) and a very contradictory plunge in imports which suggest US tollers are seeing far less end-demand (and despite the immediate cut to Goldman’s Q4 GDP estimate from 3.0% to 2.2% after US consumer spending tumbled in September) it is, for now at least – because GDP-crushing snow is just around the corner – doing better than Europe (where Germany just joined the ranks of Spain, Italy and Portgual in the deflation column), Japan, where the BOJ just crashed recovery hopes and unleashed more QE for the official reason that the economy is tanking once more due to the inability to keep inflation steady above 1%, and certainly China, whose economy – driven by the housing market slide now in its 5th month and which has sent Y/Y prices negative for the first time since 2012 – keeps contracting, as confirmed overnight by the latest official PMI data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The Chinese data in a nutshell: overnight the official NBS PMI report indicted the October manufacturing PMI printed at a disappointing 50.8, below the 51.1 in September, and well below the consensus hopes for a rebound and uptick at 51.2.

 

In fact, as the Chart below shows, this was the weakest October for Chinese manufacturing since 2008.

 

The October data was also the weakest since April’s 50.4, when the PBOC launched a concentrated credit stimulus which succeeded in briefly boosting the economy, and whose effect has, however, now almost completely faded.

Goldman’s take:

Among major sub-indexes of the official PMI, most key sub-indexes showed signs of cyclical slowdown from the previous month. We view production and new orders indexes as most important as they are most closely correlated with hard economic data. Both clearly softened (Production decreased to 53.1 from 53.6, and new orders moderated to 51.6 from 52.2). The only two sub-indexes that didn’t decline were employment and supplier’s delivery time (Employment increased 0.2pp to 48.4 and supplier’s delivery time held up). This pattern is very similar to the pattern of the HSBC PMI (though the magnitude of fall in export orders index in the official PMI is much smaller).

 

We believe this reflects weak demand growth in the economy despite government’s loosening efforts. Export probably has not been making as much contribution to demand growth as one might expect from the very strong export data either. Production and construction restrictions aimed at reducing pollution in and around Beijing during the APEC summit suggest downside risk to November activity and our 4Q GDP forecast of 7.3% yoy (around 8.4% qoq ann, SA).

And Bloomberg‘s:

A pullback in manufacturing will test the government’s determination to refrain from broad stimulus. The economy expanded 7.3 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace in more than five years.

 

“The biggest drivers of growth such as fixed-asset investment are still slowing,” Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., said by phone from Hong Kong yesterday. “Heavy industries like steel and coal are contracting on lower prices, and the negative impact of the weak property market is becoming more pronounced.”

 

A property downturn dragged the economy to its lowest growth in five years last quarter. China will “stabilize” property-related consumption and make it easier for people to access mandatory housing savings, according to a government statement citing a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang. This came after the central bank on Sept. 30 relaxed mortgage rules for homebuyers who have paid off existing loans.

And, of course, Zerohedge. From a month ago:

China’s economy has ground to the biggest crawl it has experienced since the Lehman crash. What’s worse, and what we predicted would happen when we observed the collapse in Chinese commodity prices ten days ago, capex, i.e. fixed investment, grew at the slowest pace  in the 21st century: the number of 16.5% was the lowest since 2001, and suggests that the commodity deflation problem is only going to get worse from here.

 

As JPM summarized earlier today, pretty much every economic data release was a disaster, missing consensus significantly, and suggesting GDP is now trending at an unprecedented sub-7%.

So instead of beating an already dead horse, we will let the charts (of what is almost surely “optimistically-goalseeked” government data to begin with) do the talking.

• Output growth of non-ferrous metals, steel and cement slowed to 8.2%,
  1.7% and – 2.2% yoy respectively in September from 9.5%, 2.4% and 3.0% in August.

 

• Headline year-to-date FAI growth slowed to 16.1% yoy in September from 16.5% yoy in August, below the consensus of 16.3%. Real ytd FAI growth also moderated to 15.3% yoy in September from 15.8% yoy in August.

 

• Investment growth of local projects (88% of total FAI) edged down to 13.3% yoy in September from 13.4% yoy in August.

 

• Real estate ytd FAI growth moderated to 12.5% in September from 13.2% in August as home new starts remain weak.

 

• Retail sales growth eased to 11.6% yoy in September from 11.9% in August, but quickened in real terms due to falling CPI inflation.

 

• Growth of total auto sales and passenger car sales in volume decreased to 2.5% and 6.4% yoy in September from 4.0% and 8.5%, respectively in August.

 

• China’s CPI and PPI inflation declined to 1.6% and -1.8% in September yoy from 2.0% and -1.2% in August, below consensus forecasts. Falling inflation in China was due to slower economic growth, the anti-corruption campaign which damped consumption demand, and the decline in global oil and gas prices.

 

• Food inflation softened to 2.3% yoy in September from 3.0% in August, while nonfood inflation decreased to 1.3% from 1.5%.

 

• The yoy growth of outstanding bank loans edged down to 13.2% from 13.3% in August, meanwhile that of outstanding TSF decreased to 15.6% from 16.1% in August.

 

• In volume terms, growth of iron ore imports picked up to 13.6% yoy in September from 8.5% in August due perhaps to falling prices, while that of copper and crude oil imports declined to -14.8% and 7.4% yoy, respectively in September from -13.3% and 17.5% in August

 

• In yoy terms, the number of cities that saw new home prices down/flat/up changed to 58/2/10 in September, compared to 19/3/48 in August.

 

• On the demand side, the yoy growth of new home sales in floor space terms and value terms picked up to -12.1% and -10.3% yoy in September from -13.4% and -13.7%, respectively, in August. However, in ytd terms, home sales growth in both value and volume terms moderated slightly in 9M14 from 8M14.

* * *

And so, with Europe, Japan and, now, China slowly sinking into what can be described a global period of economic slowdown, the only hope is that the US will decouple from… well… everyone, as slowly but surely seems to be happening:

Which is great, however if and when the USD-carry trade revulsion finally sets in and sends the dollar truly soaring (more on that in a subsequent article), it is not the US which will have the last laugh.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1xM5CNn Tyler Durden

Courtesy of the StealthFlation Blog

By eviscerating the U.S. bond market, they have completely destroyed the time value of money.  Thus, there no longer exist a viable time deposit value on savings.  
 
Those relatively riskless returns are gone, and what we are witnessing in Japan is a desperate and perverse attempt to recreate those secure income streams which are fundamental to a life spent prudently saving one’s hard earned wealth.

Moreover, those savings deposits provided the basis for fundamental capital formation through the fractional reserve banking system. 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1pf05zV Bruno de Landevoisin

When work is punished and grift is not, is it any surprise that, as The Washington Times reports, nearly 60,000 triple dipping Veterans picked up $3.5 billion in benefits (collecting their military retirement pay; and disability benefits from both the Veterans Administration and Social Security too). The arrangement is legal, but since everyone else is abusing the system, from crony banks to deadbeat dads to squatting slummers, it was only a matter of time before even veterans decided to dip, then dip again and dip some more. Sen. Tom Coburn, noted it was "hard to understand," but perhaps the hardest thing to understand is why it took veterans so long to realize we live in a world without consequences.

 

As The Washington Times reports, tens of thousands of veterans collect their military retirement pay and disability benefits from the Veterans Administration and disability checks from Social Security too, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office. All told, nearly 60,000 triple dippers collected $3.5 billion in benefits.

The arrangement is legal, but it raises questions about the generosity of the American safety net system at a time when disability programs are already under severe financial stress.

 

"This report shows that, like other government programs, there is little coordination between these overlapping benefits, which increase cost[s] to taxpayers," said Sen. Tom Coburn, the Oklahoma Republican who requested the GAO report. "We should fulfill our promises to the men and women who serve, but we need to streamline these duplicative programs."

For decades, up until 2004, the government clamped down on veterans taking both military retirement pay and VA disability benefits. The Pentagon docked retirement pay dollar for dollar up to the amount of their VA benefits.

But veterans groups argued that vets should be entitled to both payments, saying the retirement money was earned for years of service, while disability is compensation for service-related wounds.

 

Under an intense lobbying campaign, Congress changed the law so that, beginning in 2004, vets were gradually allowed to collect both checks – though there are regular rumblings proposing to undue the 2004 change.

Social Security disability, however, is different.

Most Americans aren't able to collect Social Security disability payments if their income is at least $13,000 a year. But Social Security rules don't treat military retirement or VA disability payments as regular income, which means veterans can collect tens of thousands of dollars from the Pentagon and VA and still get money from Social Security.

 

Mr. Coburn said taxpayers should find that "hard to understand."

 

"With the Social Security Disability Insurance trust fund set to run out of money in two years, the report raises a number of questions about whether disability benefits are getting to those whose livelihoods depend on them," the senator said.

In an official reply to the GAO, the VA said it "generally agrees" with the report's conclusions. Social Security officials had no comment.

Social Security's disability trust fund is expected to run out of money in 2016, and some lawmakers believe that cracking down on double dippers could help extend the program's life somewhat.

 

About 3 percent of military retirees collect all three benefits right now, GAO investigators said. Most of them have a VA disability rating of 50 percent or higher, though just 17 percent of the disabilities are combat-related.

 

Of the $3.5 billion spent in 2013 on the triple dippers, $1.4 billion came from the VA, $1.2 billion came from the Pentagon, and $937.4 million came from Social Security.

As for the individual veterans, the GAO identified 101 who earn more than $150,000 a year in triple-dip benefits. Another 2,200 veterans earn between $100,000 and $150,000.

Investigators pulled seven cases at different benefit levels for further study, and in all but the lowest two, the veterans were making more as retired disabled than their salaries would have been if they'd still been in the service.

 

A 54-year-old who retired in 1997 after 20 years in the military, who had lung disease, vascular disease and lost use of his feet, collected $122,887 in benefits in 2013 — nearly three times the $43,808 someone of his pay grade would have made in the military.

 

Meanwhile, a 59-year-old who retired in 2004 after 26 years, who lost his feet, is blind in one eye and has renal problems, collected $152,719 in 2013 — more than twice the $72,824 salary of someone at his final military pay grade. Most of his benefits — $85,958 — came from VA disability, while $46,396 was military retirement, and $20,365 was from Social Security.

*  *  *

Since everyone else is abusing the system, from crony banks to deadbeat dads to squatting slummers, it was only a matter of time before even veterans decided to dip, then dip again and dip some more. Sen. Tom Coburn, noted it was "hard to understand," but perhaps the hardest thing to understand is why it took veterans so long to realize we live in a world without consequences.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1DHw78w Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Libertyt Blitzkrieg blog,

Two headlines came across my screen today, which taken together pretty much sum up the effects of policy decisions made by Central Bankers and politicians since the financial crisis. The financial oligarchs got bailed out, and the rich got richer due to decisions made by “leaders” around the globe. As such, the entire planet has now been transformed into a neo-feudal tinderbox. Myself and countless others warned all the way back to 2008 that this is what would happen, and here you have it.

 

Let’s first examine the results from Oxfam’s report on the billionaire growth spurt. I hope all 1,645 of you have sent thank you notes to the patron saint of oligarchy: Ben Bernanke. From NBC:

The super-rich club has become less exclusive, with the amount of billionaires doubling since the financial crisis, according to a report from global charity Oxfam. There were 1,645 billionaires globally as of March 2014, according to Forbes data cited in the Oxfam report, up from 793 in March 2009.

 

The report ‘Even it Up: Time to End Extreme Inequality’ noted that the world’s richest 85 people saw their wealth jump by a further $668 million per day collectively between 2013 and 2014, which equates to half a million dollars a minute.

Unsurprisingly, this reverse Robin Hood policy of Central Banks and governments the world over has also resulted in increased poverty. Rob from the middle class and give to the oligarchs. Here’s what you get…

In case you’re wondering what billionaires think about all of this, let’s not forget the timeless words of Sam Zell.

Keep chanting serfs…USA! USA!

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1u8ndBj Tyler Durden

On the one hand :

Consumers expect better economic growth and rising incomes in the coming months, pushing a measure of confidence to a seven-year high in October. The University of Michigan said Friday that its index of consumer sentiment rose to 86.9 from 84.6 in September. That’s the highest since July 2007, five months before the Great Recession began. Still, the index regularly topped 90 before the downturn.

 

The solid increase suggests consumers largely dismissed concerns about slowing global growth and have ignored the sharp swings in financial markets earlier this month. Instead, greater hiring and lower gas prices are boosting their outlook.

 

“Market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and worries about the global economy weren’t able to sour consumers’ moods this month,” said Greg Daco, an economist at Oxford Economics.

 

Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist, says that almost six in ten of the respondents said the economy has improved recently, the highest proportion in more than 10 years.

(source)

… and:

It appears the burden of hope for the future of the American consumer, based on this morning’s confidence survey data, is based on a surge in incomes. In fact, the income ‘hope’ index is at its highest since February 2008, which is odd given the utter stagnation of real wages. Perhaps the survey respondents have been listening to a little too much ‘hope-and-change’ TV promises of minimum wage hikes and fair livable wages and not enough paying attention to the layoffs, “M&A synergies”, restructurings, and buybacks firms are actually undertaking, or as some call it, reality. Shown on the chart below: the largest decoupling between reality and hope in the history of income reality vs expectations.

 

 

(source)

On the other:

Voters are deeply frustrated with the economy as they head to the polls Tuesday for a midterm election Republicans hope will yield them control of the Senate.

While the unemployment rate is dropping, the economy is expanding and gas prices are below $3 per gallon, polls show that most voters feel the recovery has passed them by. “We find that most people say they’re falling behind or at best staying even,” said Alec Tyson, a senior researcher at the Pew Research Center. “Even as the overall employment picture may be improving, people aren’t feeling it in their own wages and day-to-day lives.”

 

While Obama has increasingly tried to trumpet positive news about the economy, polling shows the message hasn’t resonated with voters.

That’s party because wages aren’t outpacing inflation, according to Josh Bivens, research and policy director at the Economic Policy Institute.

 

* * *

Angst about the economy has clearly helped tilt Tuesday’s election in the GOP’s favor.

(source)

A simple request: can the “hope and change” ministry of truth please get its propaganda together and at least come up with a coherent message?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1sX7wWY Tyler Durden