Stocks Are On the Ledge of a Cliff

The markets are attempting to move higher this morning based on performance gaming from fund managers and little else.

February was an abysmal month for most funds, so there is a concerted effort to get the market as high as possible before they have to report monthly results.

Enter the ramp job of the last few days abetted by hopes of some new stimulus announcement at the weekend’s G20 summit.

Regarding the latter item, the big hype and hope for some kind of action during the weekend’s G20 meeting proved to be misguided. Policy makers were adamant that a “coordinated stimulus” effort is not coming.

A communique from the Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers flagged a series of risks to world growth, including volatile capital flows, a sharp fall in commodity prices and the potential “shock” of a British exit from the EU…

But there was no plan for specific coordinated stimulus spending to spark activity, as some investors had been hoping after markets nosedived at the start of 2016. Over the course of the two-day meeting in Shanghai comments by policymakers made clear the divergence of views on the way forward.

Source: Reuters

So where does this leave us?

Stocks are still below the key line we’ve been watching. And this is despite one of the more aggressive manipulations in market history.

In the larger picture, stocks have taken out the bull market trendline from the 2009 bottom. They are holding critical support (the green line) for now, but barring an absolutely vertical ramp in the next few months, the bull market is OVER.