Dallas Fed Gives The Best Forecast Of What The Trump Economy Will Look Like

One of the least convoluted, most insightful and thus best forecasts of what the first few months of the Trump administration will look like, came from one of the respondents of today’s Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. This is what the respondent said:

President Trump looks to do things that will be favorable for business, which would improve employment and growth if successful. However, protesters are all over the place, so I tend to think that will cause trouble for the country and for business.

Those 42 words, with a sufficient margin of error on either side, pretty much summarize everything that will happen in the next 6-12 months: a push to improve the economic growth (perhaps leading to overstimulation and a Fed that is far behind the inflationary curve, resulting in a sharp move higher in rates), offset by protesters who are “all over the place.”

In addition to the above snippet, the Dallas Fed respondents, among the most outspoken of all regional Feds, had several other notable comments on the state of the US economy. Here are some highlights, first regarding the Trump administration:

  • We feel if the news of the new administration holds, we should be on an uptrend throughout the Trump presidency.
  • One of our manufacturing facilities is in Mexico. There is some uncertainty around potential impacts related to NAFTA and other policy changes from the Trump administration. Several large chain customers are asking for backup plans should there be any supply chain disruption.
  • We expect President Trump’s policies towards NAFTA and Mexico will have a negative impact in the borderland in the next six months.
  • We are expecting President Trump to have a very positive impact on the business environment. We need less regulation, less red tape, better trade deals and lower taxes.
  • We are waiting to see whether the new administration in Washington follows through on the threats to place additional tariffs on parts imported from Mexico and Asian countries. That could cause the price of our finished products to increase.
  • Generally, since the election, all activity has increased and quote activity for projects down the road has increased.

And then, on various other secular trends within the US, and global, economy:

  • The global economies and U.S. economy are very weak and uncertain.
  • We have seen an improvement since the election.
  • Imports coming from Asia continue to plague the drilling equipment market. Foreign-governmental subsidized products are being brought over and sold at unprecedented low prices (prices not seen in the last 35 years).
  • The printing industry has been hurting for a long time and continues to decline. At the end of December we purchased a small print shop in order to increase sales, but we also increased overhead. Our lost sales have been a result of mergers and companies selling off divisions that are not profitable. We are still hopeful that a change in the economy will help increase sales.
  • Equipment purchases remain sluggish with a “wait and see” approach being taken by the refinery operators regarding crack spreads and available cash flow.
  • An unchanged outlook means it is still not good. I still seem to be in a secular 2–3 percent decline in sales. We are working to diversify, and while such efforts have been successful, they aren’t big enough yet to move the needle.
  • Order and shipment volumes have increased from low fourth-quarter levels across most industry sectors. We are experiencing some material price pressure.
  • Maybe it’s because we have hit the January doldrums that can occur for us this time of year, but it seems way slower with much less activity both in order entering and in quoting. It’s as if our customers are still out on vacation or taking a wait and see to the new president this Friday.

But perhaps the best recent Dallas Fed response had nothing to do with either Trump, or the economy, but instead was in response to a special question from last month’s survey, dealing with “transactions in the Permian Basin”, which had received significant attention in the second half of the year, with some reports of acreage being overvalued, according to the Dallas Fed. The following comment expressing concern over acreage prices stood out for obvious reasons:

The Permian transactions are approaching price multiples associated with a bubble or a Ponzi scheme. Multiple private equity (PE)-backed buyers are simply trading assets from one to the other—very similar to transactions we witnessed in the early ‘80s real estate bubble, the tech bubble of ‘98–‘01 when venture capital firms co-invested with each other to drive up paper gains, and the oil transactions prior to 2014 when every PE fund, pension and endowment manager needed shale in their portfolios.”

Let’s hope that this time it’s different.

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The Left Is Self-Destructing: Paul Craig Roberts Rages “The Mindlessness Is Unbearable”

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

The mindlessness is unbearable.

Amnesty International tells us that we must “fight the Muslim ban” because Trump’s bigotry is wrecking lives.

 

Anthony Dimaggio at CounterPunch says Trump should be impeached because his Islamophobia is a threat to the Constitution.

This is not to single out these two as the mindlessness is everywhere among those whose worldview is defined by Identity Politics.

One might think that Amnesty International should be fighting against the Bush/Cheney/Obama regime wars that have produced the refugees by killing and displacing millions of Muslims. For example, the ongoing war that Obama inflicted on Yemen results in the death of one Yemeni child every 10 minutes, according to UNICEF. Where is Amnesty International?

Clearly America’s wars on Muslims wreck far more lives than Trump’s ban on immigrants. Why the focus on an immigration ban and not on wars that produce refugees? Is it because Obama is responsible for war and Trump for the ban? Is the liberal/progressive/left projecting Obama’s monstrous crimes onto Trump? Is it that we must hate Trump and not Obama?

Immigration is not a right protected by the US Constitution. Where was Dimaggio when in the name of “the war on terror” the Bush/Obama regime destroyed the civil liberties guaranteed by the US Constitution? If Dimaggio is an American citizen, he should try immigrating to the UK, Germany, or France and see how far he gets.

The easiest and surest way for the Trump administration to stop the refugee problem, not only for the US but also for Europe and the West in general, is to stop the wars against Muslim countries that his predecessors started. The enormous sums of money squandered on gratuitous wars could instead be given to the countries that the US and NATO have destroyed. The simplest way to end the refugee problem is to stop producing refugees. This should be the focus of Trump, Amnesty, and Dimaggio.

Is everyone too busy hating to do anything sensible?

It is very disturbing that the liberal/progressive/left prefers to oppose Trump than to oppose war. Indeed, they want a war on Trump. How does this differ from the Bush/Obama war on Muslims?

The liberal/progressive/left is demonstrating a mindless hatred of the American people and the President that the people chose. This mindless hatred can achieve nothing but the discrediting of an alternative voice and the opening of the future to the least attractive elements of the right-wing.

The liberal/progressive/left will end up discrediting all critics, thereby empowering those to whom the liberal/progressive/left are most opposed.

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Koch Brothers Hint Support For Trump’s SCOTUS Pick While Blasting Border Tax And Immigration Ban

The Koch Brothers and their political advocacy group, Americans for Prosperity, held a meeting this weekend in Indian Wells, California for their army of $100,000+ donors that collectively support several conservative groups backed by the brothers.  Among other topics, the Koch donor network, helmed by billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, discussed plans to rally support for Trump’s SCOTUS pick.  According to Axios, top Koch officials said they’re waiting for the nominee’s identity to be revealed, but they liked the initial list of names Trump released. 

The comments came just as Trump has confirmed his intention to reveal his pick for the Supreme Court tomorrow at 8pm EST.

 

Meanwhile, as we’ve noted before, Trump’s pick is expected to come amid vows from Democrats to block any nominee put forward by his administration.  Appearing on Rachel Maddow last week, Schumer said the open SCOTUS seat was ‘stolen’ by Republicans and that “it’s hard to imagine a nominee that Donald Trump would choose, that would get Republican support, that we could support.”

 

Under current rules, Republicans will need at least eight Democrats to support Trump’s nominee to overcome the 60-vote filibuster hurdle.  That said, Ted Cruz, among other Republicans, has already started lobbying for the “nuclear option” that would lower the confirmation vote threshold to a simple majority and pave the way for Republicans to confirm any Justice put forward, without Democrat support.  Per The Hill:

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) said Republicans should fight to get President Trump’s coming Supreme Court nominee confirmed by any means necessary.

 

Trump has said he will be announcing his choice to fill the late Antonin Scalia’s seat on the bench next week.

 

Republicans will need at least eight Democrats to support Trump’s nominee to overcome the 60-vote filibuster hurdle. But Cruz suggested the GOP shouldn’t rule out the so-called “nuclear option” to reduce the threshold to a majority. The move would be a gamble, setting a precedent that could weaken the GOP’s position if Democrats come back into power.

 

“I think we should do whatever it takes to get him confirmed,” the former presidential candidate said on Fox News’ “Hannity” Tuesday night.

 

When pressed about whether Republicans would employ the nuclear option this week, McConnell simply said: “The nominee will be confirmed.”

But while the billionaire brothers may be aligned with Trump on his conservative SCOTUS picks, they have made no qualms about publicly opposing the new administration’s stance on the proposed “border tax” and immigration ban.  Per Fortune:

AFP Chief Executive Officer Luke Hilgemann, in an interview, called the measure “a massive tax increase” on U.S. consumers, who would pay more for foreign goods. He urged Ryan to “go back to the drawing board.”

 

AFP and its offshoot organizations have become a powerful force in U.S. politics, bolstering candidates and issues on federal and state levels.

 

Besides defying Republican leaders on the border tax, the Koch-led organization on Sunday challenged Trump on a policy he implemented on Friday to stop the movement of people from countries with large Muslim populations from traveling to the United States.

 

“The travel ban is the wrong approach and will likely be counterproductive,” said an official of the Koch network.

Finally, the brothers also vowed to increase their spending in the 2018 election cycle to $300-$400 million, up from $250 million in 2016…apparently they didn’t waste enough money opposing Trump last year…but we’re sure another $150 million should definitely guarantee success.

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Tucker Carlson Challenges Head of Refugee Placement Agency (HIAS) to Explain American Values

HIAS (Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society) head, Mark Hetfield, debated Tucker Carlson this evening on the merits of accepting refugees into the country — declaring it was the responsibility of the United States to accept anyone in need — citing the plight of jews in 1921 and how we, as a nation, horribly failed them — which contributed to the death toll during World War 2.
 
Tucker called him out for applying a straw man, revisionist, argument — asking Mark to explain what are ‘American values’ and how many refugees are we supposed to take in, considering there are upwards of 60 million, globally.
 
I am sure you could imagine where this went.
 

 
It’s important to note that organizations like HIAS make a living off admittance of refugees into the country. They aren’t honest brokers on the subject matter, since their livelihoods are dependent on government funds quantified off a number of refugees entering the country. In recent years, they’ve enjoyed solid growth, with revenues surging from $25m in 2012 to $40m in 2015, according to their 990 form filed with the IRS.
 
More to that end, the directors of HIAS have enjoyed a prosperous living off the recent influx of refugees, allocating upwards of $17m (~50%) of revenues towards salaries and compensation.
 
HIAS
 
At the end of the day, they’re crony capitalists, sucking off the tit of government handouts — fueled by idealogues.
 

 

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

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Hated By Those Who Hate Russia

Authored by Iben Thranholm, originally posted at The Saker,

Recently Marie Krarup, a member of the Danish Parliament for the Danish People’s Party – contacted me to say that the EU task force East Stratcom has placed me on a list branding me as a pro-Russian propagandist and is accusing me of spreading Russian disinformation.

This organisation was set up in March 2015 by the European Council to implement an action plan on strategic communication to address what it labels ”Russia’s on-going disinformation campaigns”, allegedly aiming to destabilize European democracy. To this end, East StratCom ”publishes two public weekly newsletters to stay up to date with the latest disinformation stores and narratives”. Have a look at EastStratcoms website.

This was shocking news to me. Marie Krarup requested a consultation with Danish Minister for Foreign Affairs Anders Samuelsen. She found that the task force accusation violated my constitutional rights under Danish law to exercise freedom of speech, and found this to be stark evidence of the EU usurping undemocratic and totalitarian privilege to list commentators, pundits and journalists that criticize EU policies and EU leaders.

The minister disagreed. He stated that Iben Thranholm deserved her listing as a pro-Russian agent and should remain so listed. He indicated that I was hired by the Kremlin to destabilize Europe. Despite the consultation, this remains his position. No action has been taken to amend the list. No further comment has been offered on the case in the media.

The consequences may be dire. If the conflict with Russia escalates, the state will have the right to imprison me as an enemy of the state. Already now I have been branded a traitor and unpatriotic. Many opinion leaders and colleagues have composed and published an open letter criticizing the ministry. Social media have been brimming with support, but my government remains stubborn in its accusation that I am a Russian agent. This means that I am no longer protected by the state of which I am a national.

For the last couple of years, I have used Russian English-language media like RT op-ed section and Russia Insider for publishing my thoughts on the way the Western elites’ hatred of Christianity weakens and undermines Western culture.

My choice of non-Western media like RT as a platform is certainly not motivated by any payment from Putin. No, it is rooted in the fact that as a conservative Christian Catholic, my thoughts and views are simply increasingly difficult to get published in Europe.

For years now I have had to work as an independent journalist. No editor will take on the risk of employing a person who is open and outspoken about his or her Christian faith, let alone Catholic faith, the way I am. Christians are socially marginalized, derided, and viewed with suspicion if not actually as mentally disturbed. The few Christians left are either secularized – gone native by agreeing with the establishment – or have taken a vow of silence for fear of the political correctness storm troopers. They have no impact on European culture. Their salt has lost its power to keep society from putrefaction.

The article that landed me on the East Stratcom list dealt precisely with the way the elite abused arguments of Christian charity to abandon registration of the identity of who entered which country and for adopting a blanket open-border policy when the tsunami of refugees and immigrants flooded across Europe’s borders in 2015. Their hatred of Christianity certainly does not keep them from abusing arguments of Christian charity divorced from its context when it suits their own agenda.

Allow me to quote some passages from the article, entitled “Misguided Compassion Threatens to Become the Downfall of Europe”

Europe is like Judas, betraying its Christian tradition with the traitorous kiss of false compassion in order to obliterate the last vestige of Christian civilization in Europe. True charity always springs from a higher moral absolute, a clear distinction between right and wrong, good and evil. False charity offers compassion for the criminal and not the victim. No charity for the woman who is victimized by rape but pity for the perpetrator, the rapist. Such pity is a gross perversion.”

 

In spite of their use – or rather abuse – of “loving one’s neighbor”, politicians are devoid of the Christian basis for distinguishing good from evil. Our politicians promote the forces of evil and utterly abandon their victims. This is merely an extension of the policies of the West in the Middle East since the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. Western politicians consistently identify evil as good, and good as evil. They unleash destructive forces to rampage unimpeded and oppress good wherever the West enters the scene with its military or economic warfare.”

 

The fierce hatred of the Western political elite for Christianity has robbed Europe of its moral compass. Using Christian arguments for waging war on Christianity and Christian culture is a vile demonic parody. From a spiritual perspective, it is clear that Europe has made an unholy alliance with islamism in order to annihilate its Christian civilisation. This diabolical scam wears a cloak of goodness and humanitarianism, but it is really a manifestation of moral decay and false altruism that threatens to bring about Die Untergang des Abendlandes, the end of Christian Europe”.

At the consultation in the parliamentary committee meeting, the minister alleged that my article contained lies and myths that fitted into a Kremlin narrative of the decline of the West, and that my arguments bore no relation to reality.

One may agree or disagree with this interpretation. The question is whether this makes me a Russian agent or an enemy of the state. The task force offers no proof of an agreement between the Kremlin and me. For the good reason that no such contract exists. It is an allegation, pure and simple. At the consultation, the minister refuses to take a position on the matter of principle involved in placing participants in the social debate on the list. He merely dismisses my statements as lies.

It is highly revealing that the task force pounces on this article on this subject, because it deals precisely with distinguishing between the truth and lies, and points out that the political elite has entirely lost its ability to distinguish between the truth and lies. This abandonment of truth is far and away the greatest threat to world peace in this day. Russia is not.

Today’s politics are entirely beyond the irrelevant left/right and red/blue paradigm.The real issue is truth v lies, good v evil, right v wrong.

The American election campaign blew this truth wide open. There was hardly any real policy debate, but reams of lies were revealed as masquerading as truth. In its wake, the unspeak designers launched the phenomenon of “fake news” in order to regain control of the narrative. The EU task force has also been set up for achieving a monopoly for the EU version of acceptable reality. The war on truth rages on after President Trump’s inauguration, and the presstitute media now intensify their campaign to brand Trump as a liar.

What irony that a very long epoch of relativism of values, during which the political elite and intellectuals decided that there is no truth, has now ended abruptly with a frenzied claim that truth is all that matters. What immense irony that those who taught young people that there is no truth now exalt themselves as truth tellers, and then hurls accusations of lying against any who does not toe the line of their pragmatic version of truth. The pinnacle of sad irony is that generations reared on the absence of truth from reality now clamor for truth. They have lost faith in the assumption that the media they trusted blindly are telling them the truth.

The media have been roundly exposed as liars. Yet the media claim that the exposure of their lies is a lie and that people who want the truth are lying. Those who tell the truth are blamed as liars, while the media adamantly maintain that they are the truth tellers. Confused? The world has moved from the usual conflicts in the realm of geopolitics and economics to moral and spiritual warfare. The world now witnesses an epic confrontation between the truth and lies, light and darkness, that was kept invisible for so long.  A spiritual war is raging between those who choose good and those who choose to call good what is evil.

Yet who is prepared and equipped for this epic battle of our day? Relativism of values has rendered many, if not most, completely without solid ground and the first idea of what is good and what is evil, utterly unable to recognize truth and defend themselves against lies. They have learned no rudiments on discerning because they have grown up with no spiritual foundation and no inkling of Christian truth. This is a big problem, as it is impossible to understand the world today if one has no spiritual eyes with which to see.

No one can fight for truth, which is spiritual without the ability to recognize truth and distinguish it from the lie. Without the spiritual understanding, no one has the weapons to fight against evil and lies. The chaotic struggle raging in journalism and social media today is a visible expression of this spiritual war.

Alexander Solzhenitsyn said that “godlessness is the first step to the Gulag”. When EU politicians adopt unconstitutional methods for listing political opponents or people who publish moral truth, they declare their godlessness before God and man, and wage war against Christianity and Christian culture. When the state and its ideology place themselves in God’s seat, all hell breaks loose. Democracy offers no guarantee: collectivism can exercise totalitarianism under democracy’s banner. The freedom of speech is now violated in Europe and there is now no freedom for journalists to speak the truth as they see it.

In the 1940s, George Orwell wrote “during times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” This is our precise position today. Journalists must therefore accept it as a badge of honor and courage when the establishment brands them as liars and pro-Russian propagandists, for this is the highest evidence that they are speaking the truth. They must see themselves as freedom fighters and find comfort and strength in the words of Christ in the Gospel: “truth will set you free.”

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The United States Is On The Precipice Of Widespread Civil Unrest

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

It doesn’t take much of a trigger to push extremely large crowds of very angry protesters into committing acts of rioting and violence.  And rioting and violence can ultimately lead to widespread civil unrest and calls for “revolution”.  The election of Donald Trump was perhaps the single most galvanizing moment for the radical left in modern American history, and we have already seen that a single move by Trump can literally cause protests to erupt from coast to coast within 48 hours.  On Friday, Trump signed an executive order that banned refugees from Syria indefinitely and that placed a 90 day ban on travel to the United States for citizens of Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.  Within hours, protesters began to storm major airports, and by Sunday very large crowds were taking to the streets all over the country

From Seattle to Newark, Houston to Boston, hundreds jammed airport terminals — lawyers, immigration advocates, ordinary citizens compelled to the front lines, many refusing to leave until those who had been detained by U.S. Customs had been freed or had obtained legal counsel.

 

On Sunday, the movement caught fire and demonstrations and rallies erupted in communities across the U.S. from city halls to airports to parks. In the nation’s capital, the site of the march that drew a crushing 500,000 people Jan. 21, Pennsylvania Avenue was shut down Sunday as thousands trekked from the White House to the U.S. Capitol. An energized crowd stopped outside Trump’s showcase hotel along the avenue to shake fists and chant “shame.”

You can see some really good pictures of the protests going on around the nation right here.

As I was going through articles about these protests today, I remember one woman holding up a sign that said “Remove Trump By Any Means Necessary”.

It doesn’t take much imagination to figure out what she was suggesting.

Visions of violence are dancing in the heads of these very frustrated people, and they are being egged on by top members of Congress such as Chuck Schumer

‘These orders go against what America has always been about,’ Schumer told the crowd in Battery Park according to the New York Daily News. ‘The orders make us less humanitarian, less safe, less American and when it comes to making us less safe people forget this, that’s why so many of our military, intelligence, security, and law enforcement leaders are opposed to this order and all those like it.’

 

Chelsea Clinton, the daughter of Trump’s presidential rival, Hillary, tweeted a picture from the rally. It was captioned: ‘Yes. We will keep standing up for a country that matches our values and ideals for all. #NewYork #NoBanNoWall.’

On Sunday, President Trump attempted to clarify what his executive order was really about and make it clear that it was not a ban on all Muslims.  The following comes from CNN

President Donald Trump insisted Sunday his travel ban on certain Muslim-majority nations would protect the United States from terrorists, after a weekend of outrage and confusion over the move.

 

In an afternoon statement, Trump wrote the country would continue showing “compassion to those fleeing oppression.”

Unfortunately, polls show that somewhere around a third of the country greatly dislikes Trump, and those people are more than ready to believe that Trump is a racist bigot that hates all Muslims.

But the truth is that Trump does not hate any group of people.  His target is simply Islamic terror, and he is actually pro-immigration as long as it is legal immigration.

Let us not forget that his wife is a legal immigrant.

I know that Trump is quite eager to get things done, but putting out this executive order at this particular moment was definitely a case of poor timing.

We are a nation that is deeply, deeply divided, and now this latest controversy threatens to divide us even further.

When I was out earlier today, I saw a pro-Trump billboard that some business owner had put up that was urging liberals to quit their whining.

On the surface that may sound funny, but it definitely doesn’t do anything to bring us together.

If you give anger enough fuel, eventually it leads to violence.  I am certainly not suggesting that we should ever compromise on what we believe, but what I am suggesting is that there is a wise way to handle things and an unwise way to handle things.

Someday, widespread civil unrest is going to sweep across the United States and major American cities will burn.

My hope is that we can put this off for as long as possible.

In fact, I sincerely hope that this will not happen at all during the Trump/Pence era.

But you would have to be blind not to see the hate, anger and frustration that are all growing like cancer in the hearts of our young people.

This is a time for the peacemakers.  If there are any left in Washington, we need them to rise up now and try to bring healing before it is too late.

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Trump On A Roll, Fires Director Of Immigration And Customs Enforcement

Having said the infamous words “you’re fired” once already this evening, when President Trump relieved acting AG Sally Yates of her duties just after 9pm Eastern, and perhaps realizing just how much he missed the sound, moments ago Trump also relieved acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director Daniel Ragsdale, who was replaced with Thomas Homan, who previously led ICE’s “efforts to identify, arrest, detain, and remove illegal aliens, including those who present a danger to national security or are a risk to public safety, as well as those who enter the United States illegally or otherwise undermine the integrity of our immigration laws and our border control efforts.”

There was no immediate reason given for Ragsdale’s dismissal.

The full statement from DHS Secretary Kelly announcing Homan taking over as ICE Director is below.

STATEMENT FROM SECRETARY KELLY ON THE PRESIDENT’S  APPOINTMENT OF THOMAS D. HOMAN AS ACTING ICE  DIRECTOR

 

WASHINGTON — Today, the president appointed Thomas D. Homan acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

 

Since 2013 Homan has served as the executive associate director of ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO). In this capacity, he led ICE’s efforts to identify, arrest, detain, and remove illegal aliens, including those who present a danger to national security or are a risk to public safety, as well as those who enter the United States illegally or otherwise undermine the integrity of our immigration laws and our border control efforts.

 

Homan is a 33-year veteran of law enforcement and has nearly 30 years of immigration enforcement experience. He has served as a police officer in New York; a U.S. Border Patrol agent: a special agent with the former U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service; as well as supervisory special agent and deputy assistant director for investigations at ICE. In 1999, Mr. Homan became the assistant district director for investigations (ADDI) in San Antonio, Texas, and three years later transferred to the ADDI position in Dallas, Texas.

 

Upon the creation of ICE Homan was named as the assistant agent in charge in Dallas. In March 2009, Homan accepted the position of assistant director for enforcement within ERO at ICE headquarters and was subsequently promoted to deputy executive associate director of ERO.

 

Mr. Homan holds a bachelor’s degree in criminal justice and received the Presidential Rank Award in 2015 for his exemplary leadership and extensive accomplishments in the area of immigration enforcement.

 

I am confident that he will continue to serve as a strong, effective leader for the men and women of ICE. I look forward to working alongside him to ensure that we enforce our immigration laws in the interior of the United States consistent with the national interest.

Can Trump make it a Monday termination trifecta? We will find out soon enough.

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Trump Files Early With FEC For 2020 Candidacy, Outmaneuvers Nonprofits

document from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) indicates that Donald Trump took steps last week to outmaneuver nonprofit organizations, leaving them unable to officially campaign against him over the next few years of his Presidency.

Filed on January 20th, 2017, the letter states that, while not an official announcement for reelection, Donald Trump has filed an FEC Form 2 in order to “ensure compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.” This is an unprecedented, although legal, move for the President to make. Barack Obama did not file for his 2012 re-election bid until April 2011. Having filed (even if not formally announcing a bid) as a candidate, Trump would be able to coordinate with PACs and other similar organizations.

More importantly, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organizations would no longer be able to engage in “political speech” which could theoretically affect the results of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election without running the risk of losing their nonprofit status. The move effectively bars interest groups from creating nonprofits which they could funnel money into for the purposes of opposing Trump’s initiatives. This will likely create chaos for political opponents of Trump such as George Soros, who has sunk significant amounts of money into various nonprofit groups with the intent of opposing Trump’s government. How 501(c)(3) organizations will comply with the FEC’s regulations when participating an actions which qualify as political speech remains to be seen.

The move is consistent with Trump’s campaign promises to reduce the financial influence of private special interest groups on Washington.

This article was originally posted at http://ift.tt/2joxaf2

via http://ift.tt/2jxfpFG William Craddick

Meet America’s New Acting Chief Law Enforcement Officer

With Trump having relieved acting Attorney General Sally Yates of duty for her “betrayal” of the Department of Justice, and with the next AG Sen. Jeff Sessions pending confirmation, meet the new – interim – chief law enforcement officer of the United States: Dana Boente (who incidentally was also appointed by Obama in October 2015).

Dana J. Boente was nominated by President Barack Obama on Oct. 8, 2015, and confirmed by the United States Senate on Dec. 15, 2015, as the 60th U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia (EDVA). As the chief federal law enforcement for the district, which includes offices in Alexandria, Richmond, Norfolk and Newport News, Boente supervises the prosecution of federal crimes and the litigation of federal civil matters.

Boente is a 31-year veteran of the Department of Justice, and has spent his professional career in public service. He began as a law clerk to Chief U.S. District Judge J. Waldo Ackerman for the Central District of Illinois in 1982. In 1984, he joined the Tax Division’s Criminal Section as part of the Attorney General’s Honors Program.  In January 2001, Boente became an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Fraud Unit of EDVA. He was detailed to the Tax Division in August 2005 to serve as the Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General.  Boente returned to EDVA when he was selected as the First Assistant U.S. Attorney in May 2007, and later served as the U.S. Attorney for EDVA from October 2008 through September 2009.  In December 2012, Boente was appointed by Attorney General Eric Holder to serve as the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Louisiana, a position he held until September 2013. He became the Acting U.S. Attorney for EDVA by virtue of the Vacancy Reform Act on Sept. 23, 2013, and served in that position until Dec. 15, 2015.

Boente is a graduate of St. Louis University (B.S.B.A. and M.B.A.) and its School of Law (J.D.).  He has lived in Northern Virginia for 29 years.

Meanwhile, former DOJ spokesman Matthew Miller is clearly displeased with the way events have unfolded tonight:

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BOJ Keeps Rate, Yield Target On Hold, Upgrades Growth Forecasts: USDJPY Slides

Moments ago the BOJ concluded its two-day meeting, and unlike a year ago when Kuroda unveiled NIRP,  this time there were no surprises or fireworks. In a 7-2 decision (Sato and Kiuchi voting against), the BOJ kept its rate at -0.1% as expected. The Central bank also kept its 10Y yield target at around 0%.

However, in a modest hawkish revision of its forecast, the BOJ increased its fiscal 2016 GDP forecast to 1.4% vs 1.0% in October, increased fiscal 2017 GDP growth to 1.5% vs 1.3% prior, and increased the fiscal 2018 GDP forecast to 1.1% from 0.9% previously. The bank also expects 2017 core CPI to print at 1.5%, unchanged from the last forecast.

The BOJ will continue nationalizing its equity capital markets at a rate of JPY6 trillion in ETFs, and JPY90 billion in J-REITs per year.

Finally, the cental bank extended the duration of its lending-support program by one year.

Following a kneejerk reaction which sent the USDJPY as high as 113.70 after the announcement from 113.50 previously, the USDJPY has since slid to 113.30, the lows on the session.

The full, if rather dull, BOJ statement is below:

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