US Launches Probe Into Apple Slowing Older iPhones

One month after a firestorm swept across Apple community when a conspiracy theory that Apple had been throttling its older iPhone was confirmed, moments ago Bloomberg reported that the DOJ and the SEC have launched a probe whether Apple violated securities laws concerning its disclosures about a software update that slowed older iPhone models.

According to the report, the government has requested information from the company, although the inquiry is said to be in its early stages, and it’s too soon to conclude any enforcement will follow.

The probe comes several weeks after Apple admitted to slowing down the performance of older iPhones models as a way to make their internal batteries last longer.

Apple released a software update early in 2017 to start throttling older iPhones, but didn’t specify that the action slowed the devices. In December, Apple apologized for not communicating this information and vowed to release another update to mitigate the concern.

The slowdowns only occur when the iPhone’s battery reaches a certain, unspecified point of low health and can be fixed if a user replaces the old battery with a new one. As part of its public apology, Apple cut the prices of battery replacements in its stores to $29, a $50 discount.

In response, Apple plans to release an iPhone software update, called iOS 11.3, in the spring with new features that allow users to monitor the health of their batteries and protect against slowdowns, although an earlier report from Axios today suggested that the OS update may be delayed. Apple has claimed that if consumers turn off the throttling, older iPhones will be more prone to randomly rebooting.

After apologizing to customers in December, Apple was sued by consumer advocacy groups and individual iPhone users in a global backlash. U.S. government officials, including Senator John Thune have also questioned Apple about the slowdowns.

As Bloomberg concludes, the situation is a self-inflicted black eye on the company, based in Cupertino, California.

The company has been wrestling with some other software-related issues, including processor vulnerabilities that have affected other technology companies and a login flaw that allows intruders to access files on Mac computers without a passcode.

Axios reported that Apple is delaying some key iPhone and Mac software features planned for release this year to focus on quality improvements.

The news, which follows an earlier update from Deutsche Bank concluding that the iPhone X is too expensive to begin a new Apple supercycle, pushes AAPL stock to new session lows just one day ahead of its earnings report after the close tomorrow.

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If You Bought Drugs on the Silk Road Using Bitcoin, the Feds Might Know Who You Are

If you’ve ever used bitcoin to buy drugs on the Silk Road, there’s a nonzero chance that researchers in Qatar know your real name. In a paper published this month, Husam Al Jawaheri of Qatar University outlined the simple method that his team used to tie data from the open web—specifically, information shared on Twitter and in a popular bitcoin forum—to transactions that appeared on the bitcoin blockchain, the distributed and fully public database that lists transactions without connecting them to an identity or location.

By scraping sites on the dark web for bitcoin addresses and then cross-referencing them with those same addresses on the blockchain, Jawaheri’s team was able to link 125 unique users to 20 Tor hidden services, “including sensitive ones, such as The Pirate Bay and Silk Road.”

Moving bitcoin from one user to another requires posting to the blockchain “public keys,” which are strings of letters and numbers in the possession of users. If you wanted to pay me in bitcoin, I would generate a receiving address (one of those strings) that you could use to send me currency. I wouldn’t need to provide you with a username, email address, or anything tied to my identity. I could even post the receiving address online in the form of a QR code, so people can send me bitcoin without even knowing my real name.

If you are able to link my name to that address, however, the transaction is no longer anonymous; nor are any other transactions carried out with the same address.

The weakness that Jawaheri’s team identified is that bitcoin enthusiasts over the years have given their public keys out to lots of people and posted them in lots of different places. Many of them did so using internet accounts on which they also posted bits and pieces of identifying information about themselves, even if they wrote under a pseudonym—things like where they live, what they do for work, where they went to school or grew up, how many kids they have, whether they’re married. This thread on the forum Bitcoin Talk, which the Qatar University researchers scraped for public addresses, references a public spreadsheet full of public addresses.

Not everybody who used bitcoins to buy drugs on the Silk Road in the early 2010s is identifiable, but some appear to be very identifiable:

“There are 22 users that had a link to Silk Road through transactions with seized Bitcoin addresses. These users are located across the world in countries such as India, Canada, and the USA. They include 4 males and 6 females of different ages that range between 13 and 42 years. The 18 users from the forum dataset were active on BitcoinTalk between 2013 and 2015, while 3 of them are still active in 2017. As for the 4 users from the twitter dataset, they posted an average of 45 tweets in 2014. One particularly interesting user is a young teenager from the USA. This user has been a registered BitcoinTalk member since 2013, and had a transaction with Silk Road in 2013, the takedown year, during which he was even younger than what his current age shows on his profile. The associated profile also includes his personal website, which contains links to his Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube profiles.”

It’s a small group of people, so maybe it doesn’t sound like a big deal. But Jawaheri’s team was only, in its words, “a passive, limited adversary.” They were just seeing what identifications they could make using data that were just lying around. Law enforcement, hackers, and other active investigators could surely dig up more.

This isn’t the first time researchers have found a way to identify bitcoin users. In 2014, computer scientists at Penn State proved it possible to associate bitcoin purchases on the open web with IP addresses, depending on traffic volume. But as far as I know, this is the soundest method anyone has devised for tying dark web activity to open web identities without actually commandeering a dark web server. The Justice Department now has servers from at least two sites—the Silk Road and AlphaBay—and it has already used years-old Silk Road data to build a very recent case against a group of marijuana vendors in California.

There are a number of things bitcoin users can do to keep their transactions not just private, but anonymous. “First, users should never expose their Bitcoin addresses along with their personally identifiable information,” the researchers write. “Second, a new address should be generated for each transaction in order to reduce linkability of transactions, regardless of whether the user is the sender or the receiver of the payment. This is especially true for cases where users expose a donation address on different kinds of online social networks.”

The researchers also mention the rise of monero, a cryptocurrency that many dark net customers claim is actually anonymous, if less commonly used and accepted. It’s also worth looking into the process of “tumbling,” which moves bitcoin purchased on a platform like Coinbase through a wallet that mixes users’ bitcoin together, effectively obscuring who owns what.

Bitcoin Core, the community of cryptographers and engineers developing the open-source software that runs the network, are also working on a variety of privacy-enhancing technologies, including a new system for aggregating public keys, and a technique that would make it harder to link a transaction to an IP address.

Many people have bought personal quantities of drugs online over the years, and law enforcement has neither the time nor the interest in harassing and surveilling every single one of them. But this study should serve as a wakeup call to anyone who sees the dark web as a convenient place to buy illegal substances. If buying drugs online feels easy, you’re probably doing it wrong.

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Dow Dumps 400 Points – Biggest Drop Since Brexit, VIX Tops 15

Well, that escalated quickly…

 

The Dow is down 400 points – the biggest drop since June 2016’s Brexit vote surprise – and down over 600 points from its highs yesterday…

 

As is clear above, VIX is also spiking – back above 15

 

Notably, bonds are also getting hit, creating a second day in a row of combined negative returns for bonds/stocks…

 

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Politicians, Media Freak Out Over Elon Musk’s Flamethrowers

FlamethrowerFirearm regulation often has more to do with a weapon’s looks than its lethality. Nothing illustrates this better than the sudden freakout over Elon Musk’s new flamethrower venture.

Musk’s Boring Company started taking preorders of its $500 “world’s safest” flamethrowers this past weekend. Musk claims to have already sold some 15,000 units, which he promises to ship come the spring.

The sudden success of this high-octane novelty item has provoked panic among politicians and a gun-skeptical media, who were aghast to learn that neither the federal government nor 48 of the states have any laws on the books regarding flamethrowers.

California—where Musk’s Boring Company is headquartered—is one of the two exceptions. It requires a permit from a fire marshal for flamethrowers that can shoot fire over 10 feet. Musk’s product falls well short of that range.

Nevertheless, California Assemblyman Miguel Santiago (D–Los Angeles) is already promising to block their sale, declaring in a press release that selling flamethrowers is NOT funny. “I cannot even begin to imagine the problems a flamethrower would cause firefighters and police officers alike,” he says.

The Washington Post has taken a similar line, devoting a good portion of its write-up of Musk’s new business venture to the nation’s lax regulation of flamethrowers. “Despite being phased out by the Defense Department decades ago, flamethrowers are unregulated in almost every state,” the article notes, adding that “for thousands of years, weapons able to harness the power of fire offered users a gruesome advantage during combat.”

The Post has actually been raising the alarm on the dangers of flamethrower freedom for some time, fretting in 2015 that “the flamethrowers now on the market are all ordered online, so there’s no way of knowing whether a minor, a convicted criminal or a mentally unstable person is behind the credit card number.”

That same year, Rep. Eliot Engel (D–N.Y.) introduced the “Flamethrowers? Really? Act” which would have prohibited the possession of flamethrowers. The bill was never assigned to a committee.

Despite the lack of regulation of flamethrowers, their use in the commission of crimes is exceedingly rare. The 2015 Washington Post story notably mentions no crimes committed with a flamethrower.

A schizophrenic man did kill several students with a homemade flamethrower in a suburb of Cologne, Germany, in 1964. In 1995, a British teacher attacked his pupils with a flamethrower, seriously burning three. So far I have found no such examples in the United States.

Indeed, almost any violent crime one might conceivably use a flamethrower to commit, from a school shooting to a liquor store robbery, would be far better accomplished with a traditional firearm. Such guns are cheaper, more lethal, and more easily concealed, and they have far better range and accuracy. If criminals ditched firearms for flamethrowers, it would probably produce a net gain for public safety.

Flamethrowers do of course pose a fire hazard, in the same way a blow torch or a deep fryer might. That may well be a reason to subject them to fire control regulations. It does not follow that they would need to be subject to firearm regulations. Just because something looks like a gun doesn’t mean it needs to be subject to gun control.

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Everybody’s Talking About ‘The Memo’ and Ignoring the Surveillance Debate

Devin NunesThe first thing you need to know about “The Memo” is that nobody can truly tell you what you need to know about “The Memo” in advance. That’s part of the whole shtick.

Here are some basics, though. Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), previously an extremely pro-surveillance lawmaker, and his staff in the House Intelligence Committee crafted a four-page memo that claims to show that the FBI abused its surveillance authorities. The memo apparently claims that the FBI misled the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) with the now-infamous “Steele Dossier” in order to get permission to wiretap former Trump aide Carter Page and his conversations with Russian officials. All of this, they say, was part of a conspiracy to attack the Trump administration.

Nunes’ memo is currently classified. It has been seen by House lawmakers and, over the weekend, by FBI Director Chris Wray. Last night the House Intelligence Committee voted to begin the process of publicly declassifying and releasing the memo. This starts a five-day clock for Trump to weigh in on if he wants to keep the memo classified. The White House has suggested that it supports the memo’s release; we’ll see what actually happens.

In the meantime, everybody wants to tell you what to think about the memo based on whether they’re backers of Team Red or Team Blue. For those of us who are neither and don’t care whose ox gets gored (or hope they all do), there are still reasons to care about what’s happening, why it’s happening, and the overall impact of this fight.

Yes, This Memo’s Release Is Politically Motivated. That’s OK.

The Democrats also prepared their own memo explaining what they believed happened with the wiretapping. The Republican-controlled Intelligence Committee declined to release the Democratic version. So only one party here—the party the president belongs to—will be able to publicly represent its interpretation of the surveillance of somebody close to the president.

It’s silly to pretend that this is not a deliberate effort to undermine the investigation of potentially inappropriate behavior between people close to Trump and foreign governments. It’s also silly to deny that the Democrats’ sudden insistence that the FBI is beyond reproach (yeah, right) is a deliberate attempt to undermine critique.

But there might actually be an upside to all this political posturing. The average American knows very little about how federal surveillance works in practice. A sudden burst of transparency, even one-sided and politically motivated, can at least give everyone a better understanding of how the secretive foreign intelligence court actually works.

And for better or worse, Trump is the president of the United States. Secret surveillance of people in the president’s orbit by members of his own government is a big deal. It’s completely appropriate to reject the idea that we should simply trust that FBI officials are behaving appropriately. They have a very lengthy history of doing otherwise.

But the Memo Is Not Going to Tell You What Actually Happened.

The Nunes memo is an interpretation of classified intelligence that was used to get authorization to snoop on Page. But it’s not the intelligence itself. So if we’re willing to acknowledge that part of the motivation to release the memo is to protect Trump, we have to acknowledge that this memo is probably not going to tell the whole story.

Do not take this as a demand to keep the memo secret. We should see the memo. We should see the Democrats’ memo. And at some point, we should be able to see the underlying intelligence.

Note that Trump, as the president of the United States, has wide authority to arrange for the declassification and release of this intelligence information that supposedly has been misapplied in order to snoop on him and undermine his presidency. That little detail doesn’t seem to capture as much attention. The Nunes’ memo is one step removed from being able to see what the FBI actually presented.

Again, this is not a demand for less transparency, but for more. We shouldn’t settle for the perspective of people who have an obvious interest in shielding the president.

None of This Will Lead to a Discussion of Surveillance Policies and Practices.

A reminder for the umpteenth time: Many of these Republican members of Congress who are acting outraged about the surveillance of Trump just voted to renew and expand the FBI’s authority to snoop on American citizens through this secret system. And Trump himself signed the bill into law.

All the while, these same folks misled the American public by saying these surveillance powers were necessary to capture foreign terrorists. As the Cato Institute’s Julian Sanchez notes over at Just Security:

One need not believe that there are ongoing partisan conspiracies within the FBI and Justice Department to support more stringent civil liberties safeguards on the broad spying authorities the intelligence community has accumulated over the past two decades. But it is very hard to understand how one could believe such a conspiracy exists—indeed, continues to be covered up by sitting officials—yet reject even the idea of pausing to debate such safeguards before renewing precisely the sorts of powers one claims have been abused.

That’s especially frustrating for those of us (and you) who have been paying attention to the federal government’s misuses of surveillance for years now, long before Trump even announced his candidacy for president.

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Rising Social Disorder Is Inevitable: Here’s Why

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We can do better, and if we don’t, the only possible output of such an unequal system is increasing social disorder.

 

We are in a very peculiar point in history. On the one hand, we’re reassured that all is well because Every One of the World’s Big Economies Is Now Growing. (NY Times)

Yet at the same time, we read that “Something Is Very Wrong With The Global Economy”: Richest 1% Made 82% Of Global Wealth In 2017 and are asked, Can the World Survive a Winner-Take-All Global Economy?

Even the authors of the rah-rah NY Times piece on the wonderfulness of the global economy expressed concern that this “growth” may not be distributed any more equally than the previous 10 years of “recovery.”

We already know absolutely nothing will change because neither the inputs nor the feedback loops in the economy have changed. As Donella Meadows explained in her seminal paper Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System, the only ways to change a system’s outputs (in this case, widening income and wealth inequality and rising social disorder) is to change the inputs or add a new feedback loop.

The status quo has not changed the inputs or added any new feedback loops, so the output of the system–extremes of widening income and wealth inequality–cannot possibly change.

The portmanteau word “precariat” (precarious + proletariat) describes much of the modern work force–those in the less specialized sectors of the gig economy, informal/black market economy or in the traditional corporate-employment economy but with irregular work hours and little in the way of benefits.

Since the corporate media (MSM) is largely a haven for well-educated bourgeois with some family wealth and upper-middle class social circles, media coverage of the slow drip of financial anxiety in the lives of precariats is sparse.

If you talk to people working in the lower-pay service sector, you get a snapshot of a great many people living paycheck to paycheck, worrying about any unexpected expense (car repair, dental work, etc.) and mundane things that don’t vex a “protected” upper middle class employee like scraping up the cash to buy their child a new pair of shoes for his/her birthday.

If we compare this reality with financiers and their technocrat worker bees skimming millions from what Adam Taggart calls “the river of money” (mostly credit, of course), we have to wonder why the US hasn’t already exploded in class warfare.

The fuse is lit, as “fixes” like Universal Basic Income (UBI) that are embraced by the likes of Mark Zuckerberg don’t actually re-enfranchise precariats, i.e. offer a real stake in the nation’s productive capital. As a result, they’re just Band-Aids over a sucking chest wound.

Much of my work is focused on explaining the intrinsic limits of the two “solutions” offered by conventional ideologies, think tanks, pundits, etc.: the market (i.e. the neoliberal fix for everything) and the state (government can fix everything). As I have explained, our problems are now exacerbated by markets and centralized power, not fixed by these dynamics.

I’ve endeavored to lay out a Third System that is decentralized, democratic and not dependent on either the financialized, globalized marketplace or the centralized Savior State in my books A Radically Beneficial World and Money and Work Unchained.

The core dynamic of my system is the universal opportunity to acquire productive capital in all its forms. The core dynamic driving the current extremes of wealth/income inequality is the system’s rewards go almost exclusively to owners of capital and those closest to the central bank credit spigots.

The conventional solutions (“tax the robots,” UBI, more job training, etc.) don’t actually change the reward structure or the opportunity to acquire capital. This is why they have failed and why they cannot do anything but fail: they don’t grasp the problem and they don’t actually change any inputs, incentives or add new feedback loops.

There are solutions, but they lie beyond the status quo of stale, failed ideologies that have lost touch with the real economy and those being left behind by a system that radically favors owners of capital and those closest to central bank credit spigots.

We can do better, and if we don’t, the only possible output of such an unequal system is increasing social disorder.

Gordon Long and I discuss social disorder in Part 2 of our series 2018: Year of Accelerating Social Change (15 minutes):

This essay is drawn from Musings Report 4, the weekly email sent exclusively to patrons, contributors and subscribers who pledge $5/month or more. Thank you for financially supporting my work. My new book Money and Work Unchained is $9.95 for the Kindle ebook and $20 for the print edition.  Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

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Nomura: “What Was That?”

Submitted by Charlie McElligott, managing director in cross-asset strategy at Nomura

Today’s talking-point is the buy-side head-scratching on widespread ‘minor but curious’ performance wobbles experienced yesterday, as numerous consensual trades (largely concentraded in equities though) reversed course and disrupted the placid ‘momentum’ / ‘carry’ market of the past month +(basically everywhere but credit markets, where despite paper and duration risk, stuff traded ‘just fine’).  Here are my thoughts:

WHAT WAS THAT?: Many have asked if there was an obvious impetus behind yesterday’s ‘wonky’ moves in everything from equities themes to crowded momentum and macro trades.  Four thoughts–two macro, one market structure, one positioning-related:

  • Perhaps it was the ‘gap down’ in rates (Sunday overnight) ahead of US trader arrival Monday morning, as the new incremental sellers of USTs from the MBS space (convexity) hedging and its concurrent options dealer (short gamma) hedging spooked the market again with yields to multi-year highs.  Concern that the ‘too much rate vol’ transitions the environment from the ‘slow-and-steady’ repricing growth and inflation ‘goldilocks’ state, to instead, one where suddenly folks are worrying about “financial conditions tightening faster than we’re growing,” which has been a phrase I’ve been using since early last year to characterize ‘smart’ macro views on the “when the rates move is too much” concerns.
  • Perhaps, too, from a ‘butterfly flapping its wings’ perspective, is what I mentioned in yesterday morning’s ‘Nomura Cross-Asset’ note: the US Dollar as a ‘pain trade reversal risk,’ after seeing only modest squeeze on the day, yet clearly having an outsized impact on numerous popular trades on the ‘other side. Long equities momentum / high beta, long crude, long euro (fx) all went ‘wrong-way,’ many of which have the ‘weak USD’ at core of thesis. 
  • Without a doubt too—as evidenced in a deeper-dive on equity vols (below) and from that cross-asset ‘vol snapshot’ jump above—the universal theme of ‘a world short volatility’ due to central bank mon pol and asset purchases and market structure / the growth of ‘negative convexity’ strategies was a contributing factor to yesterday’s move.  For instance, see the scale of VIX ETN positioning at the bottom of today’s note.
  • Finally isclear signs of ‘investor herding’—whether it be RSIs across macro ETFs (high and low), cross-asset CTA positioning (see one-liner in red below) and insane performance of US equities ‘momentum’ factor longs (1m performance is the 89th percentile since 1995).  The more crowded, the more prone to ‘tipping.’

YESTERDAY’S THEMATIC EQUITIES WOBBLE: First ‘down day’ in a long-while on the equity HF side.  By the end of the day I had received countless inquiries, generally (paraphrasing) to the tune of “U get impression a lot of hf’s hurting today?”

The answer is…well, kinda.  That famous “99-day streak without a drop of 60bps in the S&P” market meme that was getting sent around the Street early Monday morning?  Yes, it was finally broken by the cash close.  Hilariously, the miniscule final -67bps move in the SPX on the day was a -1.8 z-score move over the returns of the past year. 

And that’s part of the ‘relativity’ problem: there just haven’t been many ‘bad days’ of late, so any little wobble ‘feels’ a lot worse than you’d expect it to, especially considering the leverage currently deployed in said ‘momentum’ and ‘carry’ market (any questions on that, I’d refer you back to the CTA / Trend positioning data sent in yesterday’s note—quick summary: 100 ‘max long’ in effectively all major global liquid equities futs (ex ASX); max longs in Oil (Brent and WTI); max long in Gold and Industrial Metals; max long in all G10 FX vs (short) USD; max short US Rates (TY and ED4)).

From the thematic equities-perspective, there was clearly some unwinding of momentum winners (i.e. Tech / Semis), in addition recent ‘renter cyclical longs’ in Energy / Inflation & Materials / MLP -spaces.  Again, in absolute terms, the actual drawdowns were obviously modest.  But the breadth of the ‘bleed’ was pretty wild, as it’s clear there were PNL reverberations which ‘shook off’ what has been a YTD slumber.

Check this out:

  • Yesterday was the 2nd worst day YTD in my equity L/S HF model
  • The worst day in ‘crowded hedge fund longs’ basket since December 4th
  • The worst day for ‘mutual fund overweights’ since December 4th
  • The worst day for ‘1Y price momentum’ factor longs since December 4th
  • The worst day for ‘1m price momentum’ factor longs since December 4th as well
  • The worst day in ‘S&P Energy’ sector since July 5th
  • The worst day in ‘revenue growers’ since December 4th
  • The worst day for the ‘deregulation beneficiaries’ basket since November 7th
  • The worst day for ‘Trump tax beneficiaries’ since September 5th
  • The worst day for ‘cyclical beta’ thematic longs since September 5th
  • The worst day for ‘USA Min Vol’ and ‘USA Low Vol’ ETFs since August 17th  
  • The worst day for ‘strong balance sheet’ longs since August 17th
  • The worst day for ‘Capex / Sales’ factor longs since July 6th
  • The worst day for ‘inflation longs’ basket since September 5th
  • The worst day for ‘MLP Total Return’ index since October 25th
  • The worst day for ‘high Sharpe ratio’ basket since October 25th
  • The worst day for ‘1m Value’ factor shorts since October 25th
  • The worst day in ‘ROE’ factor longs since October 30th

To also be fair, we are dealing with this move off the back of the crazy Friday move, and into potential rebalancing flow with January month-end.  Noisy, indeed.

VOLATILITY AWAKENS AHEAD OF EARNINGS, BUT CROWDING AND ‘SHORT VOL’ OFF A LOW-BASE TO BLAME AS WELL: But the larger story to me yesterday was the move in SPX implied vols, ESPECIALLY focused in the CROWDED large cap Tech / Cons Disc / Healthcare spaces, with key names reporting in the next week +.  An uptick in vols ahead of earnings should be expected of course…but off such a low base (too low), it felt ‘thunderous.’ 

The VIX outperformance was so large relative to the S&P move that we would have expected SPX closer to the 2805 level.

 

Regardless, the outsized vol move (and its impact on the VIX future) forced a rebalancing from the exchange traded notes universe to the scale of $3B of SPX futures delta for sale // equivalent of 46k VIX futs to buy.  Remember: the current scale of the vol short (outright) sits near all-time highs, while the NET vol short IS at all-time highs.

 

 

 

So the stock story was / is three fold: 1) crowded positioning in key large cap sectors with a 2) concentrated earnings window, against 3) all-time highs in ‘short vol’ positioning. 

Good news is that US corporate stock buybacks should ‘kick back in’ next week, with 75% of the S&P having reported by Feb 4th—meaning they are no longer in the ‘blackout’ period.  Fins make up 23% of the buyback; Tech, 22%; Cons Discret 17% and HC 11%. 

That type of flow is what will immediately (next wk) stabilize index and reset vols lower, again.

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What Donald Trump Should Say About Immigration In Tonight’s State of the Union

President Donald Trump is set to address immigration during tonight’s State of the Union address. His remarks follow last week’s rollout of a White House immigration proposal that would offer a path to citizenship to 1.5 million Dreamers—undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children—while reducing the overall flow of immigrants into the United States and providing $25 billion in new funding for a border wall. It’s probable that the president will stick to the same basic outline during tonight’s speech.

But what if Trump were somehow to give up on immigration restrictionism? What could he say? What should he? Such a transformation is unlikely, to say the least. But as an exercise in political fantasy, it’s more than political comfort food, for imagining such remarks can help us understand not only what has already gone wrong when it comes to immigration, but the policy path that, in a better world, would lie ahead.

*

Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, My Fellow Americans:

Everyone says I never admit I am wrong and never apologize.

Well, let me begin my Second State of the Union Trumpaddress tonight by doing both: You see, I woke up this morning thinking that I am married to an immigrant woman, who almost certainly modeled illegally for a while (she won’t fess up lest Attorney General Sessions dispatch an ICE swat team to the White House to take her away) and I employ low-wage foreign labor in my hotels and golf courses.

Yet the policies I have advocated thus far would cutoff access to these workers by other businesses with far slimmer margins than my own over-priced facilities.

This is rank hypocrisy, and I am ashamed that I engaged in it just to exploit the anti-immigrant fervor of my economically ignorant base. Imperiling businesses is no way to MAGA and I apologize for suggesting otherwise. Going forward, my immigration policies will be humane and pro-growth just as the excellent 2013 Reason immigration e-reader suggested. I have read this compilation of Reason’s best work cover-to-cover and committed it to memory because, as you all know, I have an incredible brain. And I am also ordering my entire staff to read it.

Speaking of my staff, to demonstrate with deeds that I have had a change of heart, I have decided to fire—effective immediately—both my White House aide Stephen Miller, a nativist stick-in-the-mud who has sabotaged my negotiations with Congress over the fate of Dreamers, and also my Chief of Staff, General John Kelly. He has been a great disappointment.

Instead of bringing out my better angels on this issue, as many had hoped, he has done the opposite. In addition, I am replacing Attorney General Sessions, a xenophobe who has forever been spreading malicious lies about immigrants, with Arizona’s Republican Senator Jeff Flake, a decent man who understands the vital role that immigrants have played in making America an economic powerhouse.

Flake will call off Sessions’ ICE (Immigration and Custom Enforcement) workplace raids to round up unauthorized workers. Such tactics are more worthy of a police state than the United States. Bill Maher recently said that I may not be Hitler, but ICE is certainly the Gestapo, and he is right about that. ICE’s reign of terror must end.

Hardworking foreigners busting their butts to put cheap food on the tables of Americans don’t deserve to be deported. They deserve respect. We’d be poorer without them in a million different ways.

Hence, I am going to work with Congress to pass legislation to create a pathway to citizenship for all 11 million of them except actual criminals. These folks, who are entitled to no federal means-tested benefits, have already contributed $100 billion and counting to the Social Security Trust Fund through payroll taxes. Yet they won’t collect a dime from it. It is time for us to stop milking them much less separating them from their loved ones.

No doubt Rush Limbaugh and his ilk will scream “amnesty” and rend their clothes that I am “rewarding law breakers” and “undermining the rule of law.” All I can say is, bite me! The founder of FIRE (Foundation for Individual Rights in Education) Harvey Silverglate has documented that Uncle Sam has criminalized so many victimless activities that literally every American commits three felonies a day. Should we incarcerate them all in the name of the sanctity of the rule of law?

Indeed, amnesty had a long an honorable history in this country untill nativists turned it into a dirty word. We have handed amnesty to Confederates who fought against the Unionists and to tax scofflaws. The need for amnesty in the face of widespread non-compliance is a sign of the inefficacy and injustice of a law—that it is out-of-sync with the normal aspirations of a people. It suggests that we need to reform the law because enforcing it would be too costly: monetarily, morally, socially.

That would certainly be the case if I doubled down on my current immigration enforcement regime. In order to be effective, this regime will need to go after employers that hire undocumented workers, landlords who rent to them, use anti-harboring laws to go after humanitarian workers administering first aid (some of which my administration has shamefully started doing). In short, it will require a massive police state that would devour the rights and liberties not just of foreigners, but also ordinary Americans.

Also, trying to stop the future flow of undocumented aliens by throwing $25 billion to build the “big, beautiful wall” on the Southern border would be colossally wasteful and unwise, I have realized. It won’t allow us to “control” the border as restrictionists claim. It would create an even bigger black market in labor that would only enrich human coyotes.

A far better option than a regime of labor prohibitionism would be to give these hardworking laborers legal avenues to work and live in the United States. How? By creating a new and improved version of the guest worker barcero program with Mexico that we scrapped in 1965, thanks to labor union pressure.

That program, which was not perfect, at least allowed Mexican laborers to easily and cheaply acquire work visas to come and go with the seasons. Taking away that option without offering usable substitutes while simultaneously cracking down on the border made it difficult for these workers to go back and forth. So once they managed to sneak in, they stayed put and brought their families here too or found American mates. What was a cyclical population turned into a permanent underclass.

President Ronald Reagan blundered mightily when he failed to combine his amnesty with a guest worker program. This sowed the seeds of our current predicament over undocumented aliens that is eating away at America’s soul and truncating its humanity. I will not repeat that mistake.

But even as we create a new guest worker program for low skilled migrants not just from Mexico but all of Latin America, we have to improve the H-1B program for foreign tech workers. Without these techies there would be no Silicon Valley and no IT industry. Foreigners are involved in the founding of literally half of all IT startups in this country valued at billion of dollars. Each H-1B supports four native jobs. I lied when I claimed that foreign workers threaten native wages and jobs.

And while I’m fessing up, let me also admit that the immigration reforms I’ve been demanding in exchange for legalizing Dreamers would not make our immigration system more “merit based.” They would simply take away the ability of Americans to legally sponsor their parents, adult children and siblings, not make it easier for us to admit high-skilled worker. In fact, the ransom I want to extract in exchange for Dreamers would cut legal immigration by 40 percent. It’s nativism dressed up as immigration liberalism. It would make America’s immigration system more “merit-based” just as Obamacare made it possible for you “keep your health plan, if you liked it.”

In order to truly liberalize our immigration system, the first thing we need to do is cut the red tape. I can’t call myself the great deregulator while setting Department of Labor inspectors loose on companies that hire foreign workers. Currently, any company that wants to sponsor a foreign techie for an H-1B visa needs to first prove to the DOL that it could not find qualified Americans to do the job. And then if it hires too many H-1Bs—becomes “H-1B dependent” in bureaucratic parlance—all hell can break loose. The company has to be prepared to justify to labor inspectors the discharge of any American worker 90 days before or after hiring an H-1B. A company that is found to be willfully violating the law can be barred for three years from hiring foreign workers and slapped with serious fines.

This is nothing more than affirmative action for natives meant to shield them from competition. Such protectionism has never made any country great. Ever.

So I entreat Congress to scrap the ridiculously low 85,000 annual H-1B cap and let high-tech companies hire however many workers they need from wherever they want. This won’t cost American jobs it will protect them. As Steve Jobs told President Obama, another great liar, that the reason he employed 700,000 workers in China was that he could not find 30,000 engineers in the United States.

That is madness. We need markets to decide the mix of our labor pool, not Beltway bureaucrats. Talk about draining the swamp.

All of the policies I have outlined so far will make America’s immigration system more pro-growth. To make it more humane, I am going to end my assaults on America’s refugee program and withdraw my Muslim travel ban (yes, that is what it is, even though I have thrown in countries like North Korea to cover my ass in court). Our policies in the Middle East are at least partly responsible for destabilizing the region and creating the current mess. So it is only right we do our part to bring as many people to safety as we possibly can.

Immigrants have made America great and will do so again. Letting them in would be the best way to MAGA. It’s time to reaffirm our commitment to who we are: A land of immigrants.

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‘Booze Equality’ Bill Inches Forward for Virginia Craft Distilleries

VirginiaDistilleryVirginia has 352 wineries, 262 breweries, and 62 distilleries. The state imposes no limits on how much oenophiles and cerevisaphiles may quaff when they visit a winery or brewery—that’s up to the discretion of the folks dispensing the drinks. That is not the case for drinkers who enjoy stronger spirits. In the Cavalier Commonwealth, visitors to distilleries may imbibe a total of only 3 ounces of liquor in some combination of half-ounce tastings and 1½-ounce cocktails.

That’s bad, but it’s a vast improvement over the situation three years ago, when in-house sipping was limited to one and a half ounces.

Even worse, each distillery must be licensed as an ABC store. This means that distillers have to buy their own product at prices set by the ABC and then send all in-store sales receipts to the ABC Board, which returns the wholesale price back to the distilleries. The Virginia wine tax is $1.51 per gallon and the tax on beer is $0.26 per gallon. The ABC Board marks up the price for liquor sold on-site at distilleries by 69 percent. Once ABC takes its 54 percent cut of the purchase price, it ends up effectively taxing spirits at a rate of $30.88 per gallon.

Distillery lobbyist Curtis Coleburn explains in the Richmond Times-Dispatch: “When they sell a $30 bottle of booze at the distillery, about half of that’s going to the state.” He adds that breweries and wineries pay a dollar or less in taxes when they sell an equivalent amount of alcohol through their tasting rooms.

Earlier this month, Del. Nick Freitas (R-Culpeper) introduced a bill in the Virginia General Assembly that would establish what he calls “booze equality.” Basically, the bill would repeal the ABC’s high stealth tax on spirits by allowing distillers keep the profits from their on-site sales and thus put them on a more competitive footing with wineries and breweries. Officials from ABC pointed out in a hearing that this would reduce its take by $1.7 million in fiscal year 2020. Virginia distilleries employed 500 people and brought in more than $7.2 million in 2017, up nearly $1 million in 2016 and $2.2 million in 2015.

Sadly, a bill proposed by Del. Matthew Fariss (R-Campbell) that would have lifted the restrictions on how much distillers could serve visitors on-site appears to be going nowhere. The measure failed, in part, because of opposition from the restaurant lobby, which fears competition in the cocktail-serving business.

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Jim Rickards: Why This Bond Bull Market Still Has Legs

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

I started in the Treasury bond business in 1985 after a 10-year career in commercial banking. I retired as a senior officer of Citibank that year at a relatively young age and made the move to Wall Street.

My firm was Greenwich Capital Markets, one of a select group of “primary dealers” allowed to transact directly with the Federal Reserve. Monetary policy is conducted through open-market operations run by a trading desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Being a primary dealer just means you have passed rigorous screening by the New York Fed in terms of credit, capital, operations, management and other criteria.

Importantly, as a primary dealer you have to make a continuous two-way market in all maturities of U.S. Treasury and government-backed mortgage securities across the yield curve. You are expected to buy when others are selling and to sell when others want to buy.

That market-maker role is how the Fed insures liquidity in the Treasury market and is the price a firm must pay for the privilege of being named a primary dealer.

Greenwich Capital was small but mighty. We did not have the capital size of other primary dealers like Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, but we did have a reputation as having some of the smartest sales and trading staff around. We punched above our weight as a market maker.

As the firm grew, we were frequently ranked in the top five and sometimes No. 1 in certain parts of the yield curve, particularly 10-year Treasury notes. Our customers were the biggest firms in the world such as PIMCO, MetLife and giant foreign banks based in Japan and Germany.

As a member of the executive committee at Greenwich, part of my job was staying in the good graces of the Fed and making sure nothing jeopardized our primary-dealer status. If the Fed had ever pulled our name off the primary-dealer list, our customers would have abandoned us the next day.

I became a regular in meetings at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That experience served me well years later, in 1998, when I had to negotiate the bailout of Long Term Capital Management sponsored by the New York Fed.

There was something else highly memorable about my time at Greenwich Capital. It was a money machine! The firm typically had returns on equity of 20–40%.

That was partly because we were smart, savvy and hardworking. But there was another reason. Our firm had caught the wave of the greatest bond bull market in history. It was hard not to make money.

This 30-year chart below shows the declining path of interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note from 1988–2018.

This bull market in bonds actually began in 1981 after Paul Volcker pushed short-term interest rates over 20%, the highest since the Civil War, to kill the runaway inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Although there were rallies and drawdowns along the way, and plenty of chances to lose money – such as the bond bloodbath of 1994 – the overall trend is clear. Bond yields have fallen and bond prices have rallied for over 30 years:

To understand why this bond bull market was such a source of profits for Wall Street, including my old firm, a bit of simple bond math is in order.

The first point is that bond prices move inversely to yields. If interest rates are going down, bond prices are going up and vice versa. A declining interest rate environment is heaven-sent for a bond dealer with inventory or an investor with bonds in her portfolio. That’s what the chart shows.

The second point is that the amount of capital gain on a bond in a declining rate environment increases as the absolute level of rates declines.

For example, a 1% rate decline from 2% to 1% produces a much larger capital gain than a 1% rate decline from 8% to 7%. The reasons are highly technical and involve concepts such as “duration” and “convexity.”

You don’t need to understand any of those technicalities to understand that in a declining rate environment, you not only have capital gains, but those gains expand as rates fall to lower levels.

The third point is the difference between nominal rates and real rates. The nominal rate is just the amount of interest that the bond actually pays. The nominal rate on a 4% bond is 4%; what you see is what you get. The real rate is the nominal rate minus inflation. If the nominal rate is 4% and inflation is 2%, then the real rate is 2% (4 – 2 = 2).

That difference between nominal and real rates seems simple until you get into a strange situation where inflation is higher than the nominal rate. Then the real rate is negative.

For example, if the nominal rate is 4% and inflation is 5%, then the real rate of interest is negative 1% (4 – 5 = -1).

The U.S. has never had negative nominal rates (Japan, the eurozone and Switzerland have), but it has had negative real rates. In the early 1980s, nominal interest rates on long-term Treasury securities hit 13%. But inflation at the time was 15%, so the real rate was negative 2%. The real cost of money was cheap even as nominal rates hit all-time highs.

If you’re an economist or analyst trying to forecast markets based on the impact of rates on the economy, then you need to focus on real rates.

Rates of 13% when inflation is 15% are actually stimulative. Rates of 3% when inflation is 1% are actually contractionary. In these examples, 2% is a “high” rate and 13% is a “low” rate once inflation is factored in.

The situation today is much closer to the latter example.

The yield to maturity on 10-year Treasury notes is currently around 2.7%, the highest since the yield briefly touched 3% at the end of 2013. Inflation as measured by the PCE core deflator (the Fed’s preferred measure) is currently about 1.5% year over year. Using those metrics, real interest rates are about 1.2%, relatively high by historic standards.

The key question for analysts is whether these high real rates are justified by growth expectations and expectations of higher inflation, or whether they will act as a drag on growth in a weak economy that cannot bear such high rates.

A lot depends on the answer to that question.

Right now that ratio of stock returns to bond returns is near a quarter-century high. The last two times this ratio showed similarly elevated levels were just before the dot-com crash in 2000 and just before the stock market meltdown in 2008.

There are essentially two ways for this extreme ratio to normalize.

The first form of normalization would be if stock values decline sharply and bonds rally on lower rates (producing larger capital gains) and a flight to quality. This is what happened after 2000 and 2008.

The second form of normalization would be if bond returns soar on much higher interest rates. Those rate increases would have to be extreme to offset capital losses from the same rate increases. Stocks would crash in the face of those much higher rates. This is what happened in 1980–82, which at the time was the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression.

The stakes could not be higher. In either scenario we are looking at a potential stock market correction (at best) or crash (at worst).

The Fed is tightening monetary policy not because the economy is robust but because they are desperate to normalize interest rates and their own balance sheet to prepare for the next recession.

It takes 3–4% in interest rate cuts to pull the U.S. economy out of a recession. Right now the Fed policy rate is 1.5%. The Fed needs to get that rate to at least 3.25% to be able to cut rates sufficiently in the next recession. The Fed won’t get there until late 2019 or early 2020 at their current tempo of rate hikes.

If the Fed has to stimulate the economy before rates get to 3.25%, they will run out of room to cut rates before the job is done. That will force the Fed to print money again in a new quantitative easing program, “QE4.”

That’s why the Fed needs to trim its balance sheet — so they can blow it up again.

In short, the Fed is raising rates and reducing the money supply at the wrong time for the wrong reason. The Fed is preparing for the next recession but will probably cause a recession by trying.

Meanwhile, the Treasury market is stuck in its own feedback loop. Rates rise on expectations of growth and inflation, but those rate increases slow growth and cause disinflation, which brings rates back down again. Wash, rinse and repeat.

We’ve seen this cycle eight times since Bernanke’s “taper talk” in May 2013. Another Fed flip-flop is coming later this year.

Rates were higher in late 2013 than they are today in expectation of growth and inflation. What happened?

The economy sank into a near recession in 2014 and 2015 before rebounding in 2016 and 2017. This is the cycle of higher and lower rates the Fed can’t seem to escape.

The conundrum will be resolved soon. Higher rates will slow the economy and put the Fed on pause.

The total return ratio between stocks and bonds will normalize, with stocks losing ground and bonds as the big winner.

I can’t give you an exact date when it happens, but it’s best to be prepared in advance.

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