The Democratic National Committee is refusing to accept a poll that shows Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) at six percent, according to the Democratic presidential contender.
The committee, known as the DNC, has recognized Suffolk University as one of the accepted pollsters for debate qualifying purposes when it carried out a poll for USA Today but the committee declined to accept a Suffolk poll conducted for the Boston Globe, Gabbard’s campaign said.
“Again, this is another example of the DNC being arbitrary and inconsistent. New Hampshire is the first in the nation presidential primary, but the DNC has not shown its voters the respect they deserve,” Gabbard said in a statement.
“The Boston Globe is the largest newspaper in New Hampshire. The pollster the Globe uses is recognized by the DNC for other media outlets, there is no reason the DNC should not recognize this Boston Globe poll, other than adherence to a subjective, non-transparent process where party elites try to dictate to the primary voters,” she continued.
“Our campaign is building momentum in New Hampshire and across the country because we are running an independent-minded, people-powered campaign focused on ending regime wars, the new Cold War and arms race and reinvesting in the needs of the American people. Whether it is on the debate stage or a town hall in New Hampshire, our campaign will continue speaking out so we can usher in a 21st century of peace, prosperity and national renewal, and a government that is truly of, by and for the people.”
Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) listens to a question during a campaign stop in Londonderry, New Hampshire, on Oct. 1, 2019. (Charles Krupa/AP Photo)
The DNC didn’t immediately return a request for comment. Suffolk is on the DNC list of accepted pollsters, a list that has been criticized by Gabbard’s campaign in the past, paired with USA Today.
“For individual entities that are included only in Qualifying Poll Sponsor pairs but are not listed individually, independent polling by such individual entities or polling conducted in new partnerships with such individual entities shall not meet the Qualifying Poll Criteria,” the DNC stated on its website.
The committee has outlined increasingly tough criteria for qualifying for debates, raising the thresholds to winnow out fringe contenders. For the next debate, candidates must get four percent or more support in at least four different polls or six percent or more support in at least two different polls.
Only polls from certain outlets are counted and the surveys must be either from different polling organizations or from different geographical areas.
Gabbard already has three qualifying polls, including an Emerson University poll also released this week that shows her with six percent support. If the Suffolk poll is counted, she would be assured a spot in the debate because she has already met the fundraising requirements.
In Colorado, officials at Loveland High School barred Nathan Myers from classes after someone used an anonymous tip service run by the state attorney general’s office to report he was planning to attack the school. Myers had posted a video to Snapchat before a family trip to a gun range; it showed some of his mother’s firearms and was captioned “Finna be lit,” slang meaning that he was going to have a good time. Police were summoned, and while they quickly determined nothing was amiss, the school did not allow Myers back until it had conducted a threat assessment.
Police in Ipswich, England, arrested Lindsey Webb for putting out her recycling in the wrong color bags. Prosecutors say the change from black to orange and clear bags had been clearly publicized. But Webb says she was never given any of the new bags by the local council, even after asking for them. A judge gave her a six-month conditional release and ordered her to pay the Ipswich council 50 pounds (about $61).
An audit has found nearly 60 former municipal employees in Sacramento, California, including 18 former police officers, continued to use their government IDs to get free gasoline after leaving city employment. All told, they took some 10,000 gallons of fuel. The fleet management division was informed the employees had retired, resigned, or been fired, but it did not revoke their access to city fuel pumps.
When Saluda County, South Carolina, sheriff’s deputies pulled Shai Werts over for speeding, they noticed a white substance on the hood of his car. Werts, the starting quarterback for Georgia Southern University, told them it was “bird poop.” But a drug field test said it was cocaine, so they arrested Werts for possession. A little over a week later, a lab test came back negative for cocaine or any other controlled substance.
The owner of the Victoria Saloon in Sparks, Nevada, says the city is trying to force him to raise prices on drinks during some events, undercutting his competitiveness with the nearby Nugget Casino Resort. Johnny Eastwick leases the space for his sidewalk patio from the city, and he says officials offered to renew his lease only if he agreed to match the Nugget’s prices on drinks during special city events, a requirement he says would force him to double or, in some cases, nearly triple his prices. He refused, and the city confiscated his patio furniture.
The Leicester Royal Infirmary, a National Health Service hospital in England, has agreed to pay Terry Brazier 20,000 pounds (about $24,300) for mistakenly circumcising him. Brazier, 70, had gone to the hospital to have Botox injected into his bladder, a treatment for incontinence.
Federal prosecutors have charged Robert Morris Levy—a pathologist at the Veterans Affairs clinic in Fayetteville, Arkansas—with three counts of involuntary manslaughter in connection with the deaths of veterans whose diagnoses he got wrong. The V.A. says he improperly diagnosed at least 15 patients who later died and at least 15 others whose health was seriously harmed. Records show Levy frequently showed up for work under the influence of alcohol. He was repeatedly suspended, but he didn’t get fired until he was arrested for DUI.
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The Year Black Friday Died: Brick-And-Mortar Traffic Slides While Online Spending Soars
New consumer data shows retail traffic at brick-and-mortar stores during Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday was widely unimpressive as the shift towards online shopping is one of the most significant consumer trends of the year, reported AP News.
Data from Sensormatic Solutions, a global retail analytics firm, indicates shopper visits over the two days declined 3% over the prior year. Traffic rose 2.3% on Thanksgiving Day YoY, but there was an alarming 6.2% plunge in traffic on Black Friday over the year.
“There is no longer one way to shop on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. As omnichannel retail and online shopping continue to grow in popularity, consumers turned to emerging fulfillment solutions, like buy online, pick up in store (BOPIS), this year,” said Brian Field, senior director of global retail consulting for ShopperTrak.
A report via KeyBanc Capital Markets found traffic “somewhat muted at malls” during Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
KeyBanc’s analyst Edward Yruma attributed the decline to more online sales.
KeyBanc’s note said Gap, Banana Republic, Express, and Zara offered 50% discounts, but that still wasn’t enough to attract shoppers.
Adobe Analytics said Black Friday shoppers spent $7.4 billion online, the second-largest internet shopping day ever.
The $7.4 billion almost eclipsed last year’s Cyber Monday’s $7.9 billion.
“With Christmas now rapidly approaching, consumers increasingly jumped on their phones rather than standing in line,” said Taylor Schreiner, principal analyst and head of Adobe Digital Insights, in a statement.
Adobe said online sales on Friday jumped 20% YoY, which suggests that 2019 is the year Black Friday died.
In Colorado, officials at Loveland High School barred Nathan Myers from classes after someone used an anonymous tip service run by the state attorney general’s office to report he was planning to attack the school. Myers had posted a video to Snapchat before a family trip to a gun range; it showed some of his mother’s firearms and was captioned “Finna be lit,” slang meaning that he was going to have a good time. Police were summoned, and while they quickly determined nothing was amiss, the school did not allow Myers back until it had conducted a threat assessment.
Police in Ipswich, England, arrested Lindsey Webb for putting out her recycling in the wrong color bags. Prosecutors say the change from black to orange and clear bags had been clearly publicized. But Webb says she was never given any of the new bags by the local council, even after asking for them. A judge gave her a six-month conditional release and ordered her to pay the Ipswich council 50 pounds (about $61).
An audit has found nearly 60 former municipal employees in Sacramento, California, including 18 former police officers, continued to use their government IDs to get free gasoline after leaving city employment. All told, they took some 10,000 gallons of fuel. The fleet management division was informed the employees had retired, resigned, or been fired, but it did not revoke their access to city fuel pumps.
When Saluda County, South Carolina, sheriff’s deputies pulled Shai Werts over for speeding, they noticed a white substance on the hood of his car. Werts, the starting quarterback for Georgia Southern University, told them it was “bird poop.” But a drug field test said it was cocaine, so they arrested Werts for possession. A little over a week later, a lab test came back negative for cocaine or any other controlled substance.
The owner of the Victoria Saloon in Sparks, Nevada, says the city is trying to force him to raise prices on drinks during some events, undercutting his competitiveness with the nearby Nugget Casino Resort. Johnny Eastwick leases the space for his sidewalk patio from the city, and he says officials offered to renew his lease only if he agreed to match the Nugget’s prices on drinks during special city events, a requirement he says would force him to double or, in some cases, nearly triple his prices. He refused, and the city confiscated his patio furniture.
The Leicester Royal Infirmary, a National Health Service hospital in England, has agreed to pay Terry Brazier 20,000 pounds (about $24,300) for mistakenly circumcising him. Brazier, 70, had gone to the hospital to have Botox injected into his bladder, a treatment for incontinence.
Federal prosecutors have charged Robert Morris Levy—a pathologist at the Veterans Affairs clinic in Fayetteville, Arkansas—with three counts of involuntary manslaughter in connection with the deaths of veterans whose diagnoses he got wrong. The V.A. says he improperly diagnosed at least 15 patients who later died and at least 15 others whose health was seriously harmed. Records show Levy frequently showed up for work under the influence of alcohol. He was repeatedly suspended, but he didn’t get fired until he was arrested for DUI.
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While speaking to a gathering of his supporters in Brasilia last week, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro made a bizarre claim about Leonardo DiCaprio.
Bolsonaro blamed the actor for the recent Amazon fires, claiming that the DiCaprio paid to have the forest burned down, while offering no evidence to support his allegations.
“DiCaprio is a cool guy, isn’t he? Giving money to set the Amazon on fire,” Bolsonaro said.
The president was referencing a number of charities that are being investigated by his administration, but there is still no evidence that these organizations had anything to do with the fires.
In a statement to the Associated Press on Friday, DiCaprio said that he has not funded any of the groups that are being investigated, but says that they are still worthy of support.
“While worthy of support, we did not fund the organizations targeted. The future of these irreplaceable ecosystems is at stake and I am proud to stand with the groups protecting them,” DiCaprio’s statement read.
Then on Saturday, DiCaprio made a statement on Instagram saying:
“At this time of crisis for the Amazon, I support the people of Brazil working to save their natural and cultural heritage. They are an amazing, moving and humbling example of the commitment and passion needed to save the environment. The future of these irreplaceable ecosystems is at stake and I am proud to stand with the groups protecting them. While worthy of support, we did not fund the organizations targeted. I remain committed to supporting the Brazilian indigenous communities, local governments, scientists, educators and general public who are working tirelessly to secure the Amazon for the future of all Brazilians.”
Bolsonaro and many members of his administration claim that nonprofit organizations intentionally set fires in the region to gain sympathy from potential donors. However, there is much more evidence to suggest that these fires were set by cattle ranchers and miners who have been encouraged to clear native lands for industrial use.
Bolsonaro campaigned on promises to allow corporations to pillage indigenous lands and since coming into office, his administration has significantly scaled back environmental protections, essentially giving a green light to loggers, miners, and ranchers to violently expel native tribes from their lands and destroy the local ecosystem.
Furthermore, documents leaked from the Brazilian government show that the current administration planned on building infrastructure projects through the Amazon as a way of pushing back against international pressure to put protections on the forest.
Social media, as is the new normal, has erupted in memes…
Earlier this year, Bolsonaro had another high-profile Twitter fight with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, who sent an alarmist “our house is burning” tweet about the Amazon fires during a G7 event in France. Bolsonaro responded by accusing him of using an outdated photo of the Amazon and exhibiting a colonialist attitude towards Brazil.
Biden In Resurfaced Viral Clip: Recounts Kids Petting His “Hairy Legs” & Jumping On His Lap
Just over a couple months out from the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses and Joe Biden’s campaign continues to implode at an accelerated rate — and perhaps his mind too — as his officially named ‘No Malarkey!’ Iowa bus tour continues (it’s not The Onion, that’s really the campaign slogan).
And now a ‘rediscovered’ viral video clip of Biden rambling at a previous speaking event is so bizarre and enters a whole new level of creepy that it’s put renewed spotlight on the question of Crazy Uncle Joe’s potential senility. It simply has to be seen to be believed. Surrounded by children, he goes on a free-flowing monologue about his hairy legs and how kids used to rub them to watch the “blond” hair pop up again. What?!?…
“The kids used to come up and rub my legs. And then jump on my lap. I loved the kids jumping on my lap.”
I thought people were joking or it was doctored. But there is video of Joe Biden discussing kids petting his leg hair and sitting on his lap. 😳 “Weird and creepy, 2020.” pic.twitter.com/1UGNZ3u4Yk
He then randomly transitions to learning “all about roaches” but quickly gets the story back on track:
“So I learned about roaches, I learned about kids jumping on my lap and I’ve loved kids jumping on my lap.”
“The men, who are now all men… and they’re all guys at the time, they’re all good men,” he nonsensically continues.
It’s a new to surface segment from the prior epic Corn Pop episode he recounted about his time as a life guard at a public pool in Delaware in the 1960s.
Biden’s story of the unbelievable encounter with a gang leader named ‘Corn Pop’ had previously surfaced and drove headlines back in September, but apparently the even weirder hairy legs and “I loved kids jumping on my lap” segment was little commented on at the time.
Nice to know Biden’s stands on hairy legs, roaches, and kids jumping on his lappic.twitter.com/OIW6RWmB2d
Meanwhile, things in Iowa are now getting weird as well, per the NY Post on Saturday:
She must have looked good enough to eat.
A jovial Joe Biden nipped his wife Jill’s finger onstage Saturday at a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa, as she introduced him at the first stop of an eight-day, 800-mile road trip through the first-to-caucus state.
“Friendly reminder not to kink shame Joe Biden for suckin on his wife’s fingie :),” one journalist, Nicole Russell observed on Twitter.
Well at least it was his own wife’s finger he nibbled on, and not a campaign staffer’s or young supporter’s or a random stranger’s.
The more local campaign events Biden speaks at, the more likely it is that we’re about to witness weirder and weirder behavior from the Democratic front runner.
According Bloomberg Biden is in danger of a “humiliating loss” in Iowa due to a “poorly organized operation, but clearly judging by the above off-the-cuff clip that might be the least of his worries:
Joe Biden risks a humiliating third- or fourth-place finish in Iowa early next year, according to nearly a dozen senior Democrats in the state who attribute the prospect to what they see as a poorly organized operation that has failed to engage with voters and party leaders.
With fewer than 100 days until the Feb. 3 caucuses, Biden is failing to spend the time with small groups of voters and party officials that Iowans expect and his campaign’s outreach has been largely ineffective, according to 11 senior Democrats in the state. That could send Biden to a crippling loss behind Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, who have highly organized campaigns in Iowa, said the Democrats, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign.
And action needs to be taken say Democrat insiders:
“I think it’s fair to say if action isn’t taken soon, you’re going to find that a person who was 7 or 14 points behind Biden will be breathing down his neck or actually ahead of him,” said Kurt Meyer, chairman of the Mitchell County Democratic Party. “There’s still time because the caucuses are not on Oct. 27, but action needs to be taken.”
CTAs Caught In A Tug Of War Between Bonds And Stocks As Year-End Looms
While the jury is still out whether the modest economic rebound that took place at the start of September – just in time to crush the value/growth trade – and appeared to fizzle by mid-November, when the “jitters” returned to virtually every asset class except stocks which have continued to ramp to new all time highs …
… is over, and a new wave of economic uncertainty and/or deflation has set in, remains to be seen.
Which is why in the absence of definitive macro trends, traders will be looking at the next best, and most important thing: what CTAs will do, especially as traditional year-end market patterns begin to take hold next week, now that the majority of hedge funds have been incrementally ramping up their risk-taking in a scramble to catch up to the market, and with optimism toward US-China talks still strong.
So what do positional indicators tell us?
According to Nomura’s Masanari Takada, amid the ongoing market euphoria – a consequence of the Fed’s QE which has pushed the Fed’s balance sheet and stocks higher for 7 of the past 8 weeks…
… it is now high time to look more cautiously at the steady accumulation of long positions on US equity futures (S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DJIA) by trend-following CTAs that is one of the factors behind the strength of the US equity market (perhaps the explanation is as simple as that CTA buy if the Fed’s balance sheet rises, and vice versa).
Looking at the action in the last days of last week, CTAs were in wait-and-see mode, but Nomura expects them to continue to lean toward buying, especially since their long positions have already reached the levels last seen in mid-October 2018, and they have been steadily hiking their leverage ratios (re-leveraging). Of course, if CTA demand overextends, Nomura warns that the upward momentum in US stocks could lead to an overheating – assuming of course that the last 100 or so S&P points were not just that – “and markets are then likely to start viewing day-trading moves by fleet-footed investors with trepidation.” Meanwhile, a modest cool-off in stocks, one that doesn’t bring the S&P 500 down past around 3,100 (breakeven for CTAs’ most recent positions), could conversely spur dip-buying by investors that have fallen slightly behind this trend.
What about bonds? As we wrote three weeks ago, when bond yields peaked just shy of 2%, that’s the time that CTAs stopped selling Treasurys, and sure enough, 10Y yields promptly dropped by over 20 bps. Fast forward to today, when 10yr TSY yields can be found around 1.76%, a level that Nomura says is “a key strategic line for CTAs”, as it represents the cost of cumulative net buying since June.
As a reminder, CTAs have already unwound nearly 80% of their long UST (TY) positions, and it is more difficult for them to unwind these positions in the interest of avoiding losses with yields at 1.7-1.9%. If anything, if trade war fears re-emerge and deflationary worries bubble up to the surface again, it is more likely that CTAs will start buying here again, potentially sending 10Y yields south of 1.50% in a hurry.
Of course, position adjustments within the range of what can be justified by actual market conditions cannot be ruled out, but as Nomura notes, there now seems to be little risk that CTAs will unilaterally sell off their long positions unless 10yr UST yields were to break above 1.9%.
In short, with just one calendar month left in the year, and the decade, what happens next may depend on the tug of war between equity and bond CTAs, and which group ends up prevailing.
And since the outcome of that particular duel is still unknown, we will instead shift our perspective a bit and look at cross-asset seasonal patterns for the end of this year and the beginning of the New Year.
Here, we highlight Nomura’s calculations for the average performance in December and January since 2009 for investment in equity, FX, and 10yr yields (in all cases assuming that positions are held from the first trading day through the last trading day). For the 10 major asset classes, the Japanese bank compared a total of 55 patterns for building buy & hold or long/short positions.
Among major equity markets, EM equity indices such as MSCI-EM and KOSPI tend to maintain upward momentum in December and January. In contrast, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and CSI 300 tend to rise in December but reverse in January. The S&P is modestly in the positive category, with strong seasonals for both December and January.
In FX, NZD cross pairs tend to move in the same direction in both December and January. In contrast, EUR/JPY and NZD/NOK tend to rise in December and then reverse in January, while NOK/SEK tends to fall in December and then reverse and rise in January. In either case, many currency pairs maintain momentum from December through January better than equity or rates.
Finally looking at 10yr yields, it appears that 10yr UST yields and yields in the majority of other countries tend to rise in December and then fall in January. Compared with equity and FX, 10yr yields show a clear tendency to revert to the mean from the end of the year through the beginning of the next.
In light of this, and until CTAs show their cards how they plan on trading the balance of the year, Nomura concludes that it seems that an effective strategy for targeting momentum effects from December through January could be to build long/short positions in, for example, HK10yr/AU10yr.
Most of those turning up at our border and applying for refuge will surely be deported, insists the president’s hardhearted official spokesman. Oh wait. That was Obama spokesman Josh Earnest, referring in 2014 to unaccompanied minors showing up at the southern border: “It’s unlikely that most of those kids will qualify. . . . They will be sent back.”
Still, the current administration’s fans gallingly argue that failing to deport immigration offenders will only encourage more to come: “There is nothing humanitarian in tacitly encouraging tens of thousands of children to risk their lives, often at the hands of cutthroat smugglers, to enter this country illegally.”
Oh wait, that was the Washington Post editorializing in July 2014. As the paper went on to note approvingly: “During the past 14 years, under presidents Bush and Obama, the United States has sent more than 9,000 additional Border Patrol agents to the Southwest frontier, more than doubling the force there. It has built more than 600 miles of fencing; installed almost 12,000 underground sensors; and deployed scores of aircraft, drones and boats.”
When you put it that way, Mr. Trump’s wall sounds merely incremental. Mr. Trump may not be less cynical than other politicians, but he layers on less hypocrisy. This offends.
Proposed Solutions
WSJ author Holman Jenkins, Jr. Solution: Start by welcoming any migrant prepared to post a refundable $5,000 border deposit. Overnight this would drain profits from the people traffickers. The money could be used to sponsor English instruction and other programs to help newcomers. By making the sum refundable, workers would receive an incentive to return home with their skills and capital to help their own countries.
Australia’s Solution: According to Emigrate Australia, Australia accepts skilled migrants under the age of 45, with a profession on the Australian skills shortage list. Australia also accepts permanent residency by investment. That means, you need to have enough money.
Australia’s solution is far stricter than the proposal of Jenkins.
One Democrat on Right Track
Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana, and Democrat 2020 candidate has the right idea:
“We’ve got 100,000 people showing up at the border right now. If we decriminalize entry, if we give health care to everyone, we’ll have multiples of that.”
I have no doubt that conditions are miserable and detentions are up under Trump.
But why?
Assessing the Blame
The current Democrat House will not fund the wall nor fund money for more detention centers.Child misery servers the Democrats well in this election campaign. The more misery the better. And Democrats openly encouraged migrants to come.
Trump is also to hugely to blame. On January 24, 2018, Democrats offered Trump $20 billion for a wall in return for amnesty. That was a fantastic deal in Trump’s lap that the alleged king of the deal turned down. For details, please see TTF: Totally Trump’s Fault.
So, here were are back at square one where the typical policies apply.
Free Stuff = More Votes
Democrats generally operate on the principle that free stuff buys votes, country be damned. Governor Bullock was an exception.
Politics aside, here’s the fundamental economic truth: Open borders and massive amounts of free stuff are completely incompatible.
But free stuff offers buy votes. And demand for free stuff is unlimited. It’s a guaranteed train wreck.
Dalio & Tudor Jones Warn: “We Will Kill Each Other” If Our Broken Economic System Isn’t Fixed
Bridgewater Associates Founder Ray Dalio and Tudor Investments’ Paul Tudor Jones joined Yahoo Finance for the 2nd annual Greenwich Investment Forum earlier this month.
Speaking directly after Connecticut Gov. New Lamont, with whom Dalio is working to bolster Connecticut’s schools via a $100 million gift – the largest charitable gift the state has ever received, PTJ and Dalio largely focused their “Fireside Chat” on the flaws of Fed policy, the dangers of America’s ballooning budget deficit, and the steps that must be take to “stop us from killing each other” in a violent revolution, as Dalio warned.
PTJ spoke first, starting with a few words about President Trump, praising him as “the greatest salesman” to ever enter the American political arena. After all, didn’t Trump convince the Republican Party – once the party of fiscal piety – that 5% budget deficits 10 years into an economic rebound are necessary to protect the economy. Similarly, didn’t he also convince the Fed – “through great moral suasion” – that returning to real negative rates with unemployment at 50-year lows was a necessity?
Both Dalio and PTJ agree that, while clearly stimulative in the short-term (obviously just take a look at the S&P 500), these decisions will set up the US economy for one of the most punishing downturns in history, which is why PTJ always laughs when Jerome Powell is quizzed about financial conditions and whether he sees bubbles anywhere. Because at this point, the whole market is a bubble.
“Clearly, the low interest rate policy we’re pursuing is creating an excess and that excess is in our public deficits. Which, at the current pace, in less than ten years we will have exceeded the threshold where Greece had its issues,” PTJ said.
And when we look abroad, the full scope of this heady “fiscal-monetary mix” becomes even more obvious.
“I look at our fiscal-monetary mix, it’s the most stimulative that I’ve ever seen – again, economically adjusted – no wonder the stock market is at new highs. It’s literally the most conducive environment – certainly in the short run – for economic growth and strength that I’ve ever seen. You add on that an 11% budget deficit in China, the second largest economy, and 3%.”
Dalio jumps in: Today, the number of companies producing earnings is the lowest since the dot-com bubble because “companies can sell dreams rather than earnings.” That’s thanks to the $15 trillion sloshing around the financial system that has been injected by central banks
“Because the world is looking for yield, companies can sell dreams rather than earnings. The number of companies that produce earnings is the lowest since the dot-com bubble in terms of their need because you can sell a dream.”
“As a result of the accumulation of the money at the top and technology we have a situation where, naturally, those who have a lot of money also have a lot of money in credit…but it doesn’t trickle down. And as a result, we have a situation with a large wealth gap.”
Dalio then moved on to highlighting his “1930s” hypothesis. There are three things that exist today that haven’t existed since the 1930s: A wealth gap that’s driving populism on the left and right, the absence of effective monetary policy, and an emerging world power (China) challenging an existing world power (the US).
All of this is happening at a time when, according to Dalio, the current dollar-centric global reserve system is nearing its end.
“In my opinion, we’re near the end, in the late stages, of our reserve currency system – it’s a fiat monetary system. Not only do we have negative rates, but we’re going to have much bigger deficits…and that’s not half the story. Because the larger story is the unfunded liabilities…those are pension liabilities and debt liabilities.”
War can take several different forms, as most Americans are no doubt aware at this point: As Dalio explained, there’s a trade war, a technology war, a geopolitical war and there could be a capital war.
And the US isn’t in a great place to carry on this fight. The situation will be even worse when the cycle turns and we’re plunged into a punishing economic downturn.
It’s not just the budget hole, there are also pension shortfalls and other obligations that the federal government must backstop: “We have a lot of IOUs that are either going to be funded by tax increases or spending cuts.”
If we don’t find a way to fix the system and fix wealth inequality, bad things are going to happen. But Dalio insists that increasing the size and distribution of the pie is still possible.
“The system doesn’t work, it’s gone mad, then the reason the system is broken is because it’s not an equal opportunity system. There are justifiable complaints about education…it needs to be reformed in a way that works better – we can increase the size of the pie in the same way that you can divide it better.”
PTJ grabbed the microphone next to share a few thoughts on MMT and some of the Dems who are running in the primary. Jones said MMT reminds him of the fight to legalize marijuana because 30 years, it would have been dismissed as a crackpot theory…but now it’s being taken seriously.
“Twenty years ago, Japan medicinalized it by implementing a form of it with the BoJ…now we’re at the point where it’s so wildly accepted that we sugar-coat it and put it in gummy-bear form. And it’s this wildly accepted next stage that there’s a problem. The typical recession means the budget deficit should increase by 10% to 30%.”
According to an internal poll at Jones’s firm, if Trump wins reelection, the S&P 500 could hit 3,500. But if Warren is elected, we could go as low as 2,400 to 2,500.
Biden and Buttigieg represent a middle ground: with the S&P 500 likely reversing some of its recent gains, but only enough to bring us back down to like 2,700, around where we started 2019.
Still, when we look at the biggest factor influencing markets, PTJ insists it’s not markets, but the 5% budget deficit in the US, that has caused US stocks to outperform.
“Clearly, asset prices today whether it’s US stocks or its interest rates or its the dollar it’s all priced off of, in my opinion, a 5% budget deficit with this incredibly overly stimulative fiscal policy combined with overly stimulating monetary policy is creating this US exceptionalism that, one day, like if we normalized our deficit to levels more popular in Europe, we’d see completely different valuations for the sock market…the dollar…etc.”
After a brief discussion of his charity efforts in the state, Dalio said that much of the source of inequality lies in the public education system. We need to re-engineered public education in a way that promotes more wide-spread economic performance, and that might involve letting the academics and policy wonks who are at the forefront take the reins.
But the stakes are so high, that whatever the cost of reform, the US will likely want to pay, because if we don’t, soon we’re “going to kill each other.”
“If you don’t fix it, you’re going to have a revolution…and you’re going to chase all the capitalists away.”
The search for one of the most legendary boats of human history has made a potential breakthrough as multiple teams of scientists have zeroed in on a curious ship-shaped rise on Mt. Ararat in Turkey. The story of Noah’s Ark and the great flood that covered the earth, echoed in the Sumerian Epic of Gilgamesh, has long fascinated archaeologists who have wondered if remnants of the boat are still to be found.
Satellite images, radiocarbon dating, and most recently, 3D scans of the site known as Durupınar have all given hope to researchers that solid evidence of the Ark may soon be found. “It’s a man-made object and it’s a ship form,” computer engineer and biblical researcher Andrew Jones told WZTV,
As per the description of Genesis 8:4, “And the ark rested in the seventh month, on the seventeenth day of the month, upon the mountains of Ararat,” researchers have investigated the site, which lies around 2,000 meters (6,560 feet) above sea level and was first identified by a Turkish cartographer in 1959.
The location of the real Noah’s Ark may have been confirmed by relic-hunters in a remote mountain range in eastern Turkey, with experts claiming images “show the entire ship buried underground.”
The Durupınar formation is about 18 miles (29 kilometers) south of the summit of Mt. Ararat, which reaches up to 16,854 feet. After its discovery was announced in 1959, it generated enthusiasm among ark seekers around the world, including Tennessee biblical researcher Ron Wyatt. Today, the site is labeled Nuhun Gemisi (Noah’s Ship) by mapmakers and continues to generate interest.
“We’re not going to find a sign that says, ‘made by Noah and sons,’ but what other ship would it be on the side of a hill at 6,500-foot elevation in the mountains of Ararat?” Andrew Jones told WZTV. In the Bible, God tells Noah very specifically how to build the Ark and these details have aided researchers in their quest.
Genesis 6:15 states, “This is how you are to build it: The ark is to be three hundred cubits long, fifty cubits wide and thirty cubits high.” These dimensions, as per the best guesses archaeologists have made about the length of a “cubit,” would yield a ship that was 540 feet long, 37.5 feet high, and 75 feet wide.
This size corresponds to the strange, seemingly buried object found in the rise at Durupınar, according to ark hunters. While in previous attempts to find evidence they produced wooden samples from the site that were dated to 4,800 years old with radiocarbon dating, they are now trying to produce an image of what’s buried inside the mound.
Using a technique called “electrical resistivity,” Jones and others on his team have been trying to produce a quality 3-D image to counter skeptics.
“If you shoot an electrical current below the ground and it hits a pocket of air, that has a different type of conductivity versus something like water or rock,” Jones explains. “So, the software can interpret the signals coming back and create a 3-D image.”
Besides the dimensions, which appear to correspond to the ark specifications, Jones claims to have seen other details that match the design. As Genesis 6:16 says, “Make a roof for it, leaving below the roof an opening one cubit high all around. Put a door in the side of the ark and make lower, middle and upper decks.
Jones claims that images have shown just this. They have seen “[a] perfectly preserved hull below the ground. Petrified, solid, hull of a ship and three different layers, just like The Bible says.” The next step would be to get authorization from Turkish authorities to start excavations.
Besides the evidence of the Ark itself, researchers seeking to prove that Noah’s story has basis in archaeological evidence have also looked at the flood itself. A group of researchers led by British archaeologist Chris Turney found solid evidence for a flood that covered the land between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean over 8,300 years ago.
“We looked at all the earliest data on farming in Europe and we found a little bit of farming in Greece and the Balkans just before the flood,” Turney explained to Reuters.
“When the flood happened, farming seemed to stop but it was re-established a generation later across Europe.”
The findings seem to indicate a large number of people displaced from their homes by the waters.
For those that lived in this part of the Fertile Crescent, “it would have seemed like the whole world had flooded,” Turney said.
