Mandatory Voting Will Build Resentment, Not Democracy

American democracy—or, at least, the California simulation of it—requires that even disinterested and actively hostile non-voters mark a ballot so government officials can gin up participation numbers, says Assemblyman Marc Levine (D-San Rafael). Levine has introduced a bill that would make voting compulsory, with civil penalties for the non-compliant. It’s a proposal that seems guaranteed to make disaffected non-voters become even less impressed with a sketchy political process.

If passed, the measure would “require a person who qualifies and is registered to vote to cast a ballot, marked or unmarked in whole or in part, at every election held within the territory within which the person resides and the election is held. The bill would require the Secretary of State to enforce this requirement,” according to the summary.

In defending the bill, Levine points to the 20-plus supposedly healthier democracies around the world that have some sort of compulsory ballot-marking on their law books. The number is a bit vague, since several countries have experimented with mandatory voting, then dropped it, while others implement it only regionally, and still others have it on the books but don’t bother with enforcement.

“Can a country be considered to practice compulsory voting if the mandatory voting laws are ignored and irrelevant to the voting habits of the electorate?” asks the Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. “Is a country practicing compulsory voting if there are no penalties for not voting? What if there are penalties for failing to vote but they are never or are scarcely enforced? Or if the penalty is negligible?”

Belgium and Singapore, for example, threaten to punish non-voters by, ummm, not letting them vote in subsequent elections.

Apparently, that all sounds awesome to Assemblyman Levine.

“Democracy is not a spectator sport – it requires the active participation of all its citizens,” huffed Levine in a press release. “California is a national leader on expanding voting rights to its citizens. Those rights come with a responsibility by registered voters to cast their ballot and make sure that their voice is heard by their government.”

“Heard by their government?” But doesn’t refusing to vote say something loud and clear in and of itself? As a form of speech, refusing to cast a ballot would seem to be an expression of disinterest in or opposition to the political system—certainly clearer than scribbling on a ballot just so you don’t have to pay a fine.

That actually happens a lot in Australia, the one country fans of mandatory voting keep citing because it’s a more-or-less functioning democracy with consistently high (over 90 percent) voter turnout and enforced financial penalties for scofflaws. Voter guides in Australia instruct people on the right way to express their disgust and disinterest on their ballots.

“If you leave the ballot paper blank, or fill it out incorrectly, or draw a dick and balls on the page instead of numbering the boxes, then that’s an informal vote. It doesn’t count,” advises the Australian radio current affairs program Hack. “If you number each box in the order that the candidates appear, that’s a donkey vote—and it definitely counts in the overall tally.”

That guide advises grudging voters on the proper way to cast a thoughtless, low-effort donkey vote because Australia offers something that California doesn’t: ranked voting among numerous competing parties and candidates. If your first choice doesn’t make the cut-off, your vote passes to your second choice, and so on, down the line.

California, by contrast, has a top-two primary system, which often results in a general election ballot featuring “rival” candidates from the same party—usually Democrats, given the state’s current political tilt.

“Millions of California voters saw same-party races on November’s ballot and left the space blank,” the Los Angeles Times reported in 2018. Among those races was the U.S. Senate contest between Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Democrat Kevin De Leon.

“This is the system that helped Levine keep his seat in 2018: He defeated another Democrat, Dan Monte,” Scott Shackford pointed out last month.

These kinds of contests, The New York Times insightfully notes, raise “a high school civics class question: should voters have a choice of two different philosophies?”

Nah, says Assemblyman Levine. Make ’em vote, because … because …

Why?

“The bigger the voter pool, the stronger the contract is between citizens and leaders,” insisted economist Dambisa Moyo in an October 2019 New York Times op-ed calling for mandatory voting.

Are we really supposed to believe that the social contract is strengthened by threatening people with fines unless they mail in a sheet of paper with “a dick and balls on the page”?

Levine’s bill says you’re off the hook if you “cast a ballot, marked or unmarked in whole or in part.” He seems content so long as he can to point to a stack of envelopes and crow, “That’s participation! Ain’t democracy grand?”

Rather than reinforce some mythical contract between voters and politicians, mandatory voting would seem more likely to further erode connections and build resentment. “Participate in our bogus process or else” seems designed to sour people on voting and politics, not build enthusiasm.

There may be more to it. Popular belief has it that non-voters lean left, so if you could get them to the polls, you could tilt American elections to Democrats like Levine (economist Moyo alludes to this in her piece). But survey results are iffy on this point.

In the U.S., non-voters generally do prefer Democrats—but not in battleground states, where they lean Republican. And voters are generally split on presidential preferences for the 2020 election: were they to vote, 33 percent say they would support the eventual Democratic nominee, 30 percent would vote for Trump, and 18 percent for somebody else, according to The Knight Foundation’s “The 100 Million Project.”

And what, exactly, would be the advantage in California, where the ballot is already thoroughly rigged? Levine would force more voters to the polls so they could choose between him and clone-him, just to avoid paying a fine.

Mandatory voting isn’t likely to build respect for democracy or make sure that anybody’s voice is heard by the government. But fining non-voters will do an effective job of demonstrating that government is all about forcing people to do things just to make politicians happy.

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With Ink Barely Dry On ‘Historic’ Truce With US, Taliban Declares Resumption Of Operations

With Ink Barely Dry On ‘Historic’ Truce With US, Taliban Declares Resumption Of Operations

So much for the ‘historic’ US deal with the Taliban to end the Afghan war and eventually bring the troops home as it’s already unraveled, with the initial partial ceasefire lasting a little over a week. The peace deal was only signed Saturday in Doha between US State Department and Taliban representatives.

With the ink barely dry, the AFP reports Monday: “The Taliban said Monday they were resuming offensive operations against Afghan security forces, ending the partial truce that preceded the signing of a deal between the insurgents and Washington.” 

“The reduction in violence… has ended now and our operations will continue as normal,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid announced.

Extremely short-lived celebration after Saturday’s truce signing, via The Washington Post.

Immediately on the heels of of the declaration Afghan national police reported three killed and 11 injured in a blast in the east of the country.

However, the Afghan defense ministry downplayed the truce’s total unraveling, saying it was “checking to see if (the truce) had ended”. The defense ministry statement added, “We have not had any reports of any big attacks in the country yet.”

Months in the works, the controversial deal that saw Washington engage with terrorists while desperately wanting to bring an end to the eighteen-year long occupation would have ultimately seen all American troops out of Afghanistan within 14 months

Only on Sunday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo predicted a “rocky and bumpy” path, but at this point it appears there’s no path at all.

US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad (L) and Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (R) shake hands after signing the peace agreement between US, Taliban, in Doha, Qatar on February 29, 2020. Source: Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Direct talks between Taliban and Afghan officials were to begin March 10, considered among the biggest hurdles to the truce plan, given disagreements over mutual release of prisoners and other details.

The whole thing appears to have unraveled after Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid again demanded the government release some 5,000 Taliban prisoners held by the Kabul government.

But Afghan President appeared to pour cold water on this key element of the deal, responding

“There is no commitment to releasing 5,000 prisoners. This is the right and the self-will of the people of Afghanistan. It could be included in the agenda of the intra-Afghan talks, but cannot be a prerequisite for talks,” said Ghani.

This seems to be driving the Taliban’s non-commitment to the truce, even after all the hype in Western media. It increasingly appear the headlines never matched the reality in the first place, considering how it unraveled pretty much immediately upon being signed with Washington.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/02/2020 – 12:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2PFokYx Tyler Durden

Bizarre Pink-Colored Smoke Over Canadian Town Worries Residents

Bizarre Pink-Colored Smoke Over Canadian Town Worries Residents

Authored by Emma Fiala via The MindUnleashed.com,

Residents of one town in Canada were confused Friday morning when they saw pinkish-purple smoke filling the skies.

Images of the unusual color smoke over Edmonton started appearing on social media as residents began calling local police in an attempt to figure out what was going on.

According to city officials, the smoke was the result of a power failure at Enerkem Alberta Biofuels, an ethanol plant. The plant turns trash into ethanol that is used to power cars and trucks.

There was a release of a substance which resulted in a large purple cloud,” a statement from Enerkem read.

City of Edmonton Emergency Response Teams intervened quickly and deemed the area safe after conducting a prompt investigation.”

Edmonton Fire Rescue Services spokeswoman Suzzette Mellado said that a single crew responded to the incident 17 minutes after the smoke first appeared. The crew found smoke but no fire.

Officials have reported that the unusual smoke posed no risk to the public or to the environment, despite its bright color.

City of Edmonton spokeswoman Nicole Paradis reported that officials would “continue looking into the situation.” Paradis also said, The quantity of substance that was evacuated in the air is below occupational exposure limits and there are no safety or health concerns.”

The Enerkem plant apologized for “any inconvenience or alarm” caused by the incident.

According to Fox43, a plant in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania emitted colored smoke in 2019 thanks to a load of garbage that contained iodine.

The Enerkem facility has resumed regular operations.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/02/2020 – 11:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2PE7gCv Tyler Durden

Mandatory Voting Will Build Resentment, Not Democracy

American democracy—or, at least, the California simulation of it—requires that even disinterested and actively hostile non-voters mark a ballot so government officials can gin up participation numbers, says Assemblyman Marc Levine (D-San Rafael). Levine has introduced a bill that would make voting compulsory, with civil penalties for the non-compliant. It’s a proposal that seems guaranteed to make disaffected non-voters become even less impressed with a sketchy political process.

If passed, the measure would “require a person who qualifies and is registered to vote to cast a ballot, marked or unmarked in whole or in part, at every election held within the territory within which the person resides and the election is held. The bill would require the Secretary of State to enforce this requirement,” according to the summary.

In defending the bill, Levine points to the 20-plus supposedly healthier democracies around the world that have some sort of compulsory ballot-marking on their law books. The number is a bit vague, since several countries have experimented with mandatory voting, then dropped it, while others implement it only regionally, and still others have it on the books but don’t bother with enforcement.

“Can a country be considered to practice compulsory voting if the mandatory voting laws are ignored and irrelevant to the voting habits of the electorate?” asks the Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. “Is a country practicing compulsory voting if there are no penalties for not voting? What if there are penalties for failing to vote but they are never or are scarcely enforced? Or if the penalty is negligible?”

Belgium and Singapore, for example, threaten to punish non-voters by, ummm, not letting them vote in subsequent elections.

Apparently, that all sounds awesome to Assemblyman Levine.

“Democracy is not a spectator sport – it requires the active participation of all its citizens,” huffed Levine in a press release. “California is a national leader on expanding voting rights to its citizens. Those rights come with a responsibility by registered voters to cast their ballot and make sure that their voice is heard by their government.”

“Heard by their government?” But doesn’t refusing to vote say something loud and clear in and of itself? As a form of speech, refusing to cast a ballot would seem to be an expression of disinterest in or opposition to the political system—certainly clearer than scribbling on a ballot just so you don’t have to pay a fine.

That actually happens a lot in Australia, the one country fans of mandatory voting keep citing because it’s a more-or-less functioning democracy with consistently high (over 90 percent) voter turnout and enforced financial penalties for scofflaws. Voter guides in Australia instruct people on the right way to express their disgust and disinterest on their ballots.

“If you leave the ballot paper blank, or fill it out incorrectly, or draw a dick and balls on the page instead of numbering the boxes, then that’s an informal vote. It doesn’t count,” advises the Australian radio current affairs program Hack. “If you number each box in the order that the candidates appear, that’s a donkey vote—and it definitely counts in the overall tally.”

That guide advises grudging voters on the proper way to cast a thoughtless, low-effort donkey vote because Australia offers something that California doesn’t: ranked voting among numerous competing parties and candidates. If your first choice doesn’t make the cut-off, your vote passes to your second choice, and so on, down the line.

California, by contrast, has a top-two primary system, which often results in a general election ballot featuring “rival” candidates from the same party—usually Democrats, given the state’s current political tilt.

“Millions of California voters saw same-party races on November’s ballot and left the space blank,” the Los Angeles Times reported in 2018. Among those races was the U.S. Senate contest between Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Democrat Kevin De Leon.

“This is the system that helped Levine keep his seat in 2018: He defeated another Democrat, Dan Monte,” Scott Shackford pointed out last month.

These kinds of contests, The New York Times insightfully notes, raise “a high school civics class question: should voters have a choice of two different philosophies?”

Nah, says Assemblyman Levine. Make ’em vote, because … because …

Why?

“The bigger the voter pool, the stronger the contract is between citizens and leaders,” insisted economist Dambisa Moyo in an October 2019 New York Times op-ed calling for mandatory voting.

Are we really supposed to believe that the social contract is strengthened by threatening people with fines unless they mail in a sheet of paper with “a dick and balls on the page”?

Levine’s bill says you’re off the hook if you “cast a ballot, marked or unmarked in whole or in part.” He seems content so long as he can to point to a stack of envelopes and crow, “That’s participation! Ain’t democracy grand?”

Rather than reinforce some mythical contract between voters and politicians, mandatory voting would seem more likely to further erode connections and build resentment. “Participate in our bogus process or else” seems designed to sour people on voting and politics, not build enthusiasm.

There may be more to it. Popular belief has it that non-voters lean left, so if you could get them to the polls, you could tilt American elections to Democrats like Levine (economist Moyo alludes to this in her piece). But survey results are iffy on this point.

In the U.S., non-voters generally do prefer Democrats—but not in battleground states, where they lean Republican. And voters are generally split on presidential preferences for the 2020 election: were they to vote, 33 percent say they would support the eventual Democratic nominee, 30 percent would vote for Trump, and 18 percent for somebody else, according to The Knight Foundation’s “The 100 Million Project.”

And what, exactly, would be the advantage in California, where the ballot is already thoroughly rigged? Levine would force more voters to the polls so they could choose between him and clone-him, just to avoid paying a fine.

Mandatory voting isn’t likely to build respect for democracy or make sure that anybody’s voice is heard by the government. But fining non-voters will do an effective job of demonstrating that government is all about forcing people to do things just to make politicians happy.

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Dow Jumps 1000 Points From Overnight Lows, S&P Tops 3,000, TSY Yields Collapse

Dow Jumps 1000 Points From Overnight Lows, S&P Tops 3,000, TSY Yields Collapse

Will jawboning alone do it?

The market is now pricing in a 50bps cut in March (was 75bps earlier today)

And for now the algos are panic-buying pavlovian-styel, with the Dow up 1000 points off the overnight lows…

Will this be the Dow’s first up-day in the last 8?

And S&P back above 3,000…

But, amid all this chaos, Treasury yields are massively lower on the day…

So The Dow is up 600 points and 2Y Yields are down 12bps (and the dollar is getting dumped as gold gains).

Will Powell deliver and send The Fed deeper down the rabbit hole of interventionism (especially after the ISM/PMIs printed in expansion)


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/02/2020 – 11:23

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2TgBUUL Tyler Durden

Global Manufacturing PMI Crashes To Weakest Since 2009

Global Manufacturing PMI Crashes To Weakest Since 2009

Although not entirely surprising, the scale of the collapse in JPMorgan and IHS Markit Economics purchasing managers’ index for Global manufacturing in February is stunning.

The global manufacturing sector suffered its steepest contraction since 2009 as demand, international trade and supply chains were severely disrupted by the COVID-19 outbreak.

Output fell across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods industries, with the steepest drop at investment goods producers.

Manufacturing production and new orders registered their sharpest declines since April 2009.

The downturns in both were quickest in China, where output and new business fell at survey-record rates. Of the 31 nations for which February data were available, 15 registered a contraction of output, including China, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Taiwan, South Korea and Australia.

Clearly, the outbreak of COVID-19 had a marked impact on supply-chains during February… Just wait for the v-shaped recovery… any minute now!


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/02/2020 – 11:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2IcIIwk Tyler Durden

Oregon Tried To Silence This Engineer’s Red Light Camera Research. Now Experts Say He Was Right All Along.

More than five years after Mats Järlström was threatened with fines for presenting data that challenged Oregon’s red light camera program, his research has changed the way traffic engineers will calculate the timing of yellow lights.

The Institute of Traffic Engineers (ITE), an international group that publishes guidelines and best practices with an eye towards safety and mobility, published an update to its guidance for traffic signal timing last week. The new standard takes into account a wide variety of factors, including vehicle approach speeds, deceleration rates, intersection width, vehicle length, and more, according to an ITE statement announcing the changes. But Järlström’s research—specifically, his “extended kinematic equation“—is cited as playing a key role in the ITE’s updated yellow light timing formula.

That research never would have seen the light of day if the Oregon Board of Examiners for Engineering and Land Surveying had its way.

Järlström got on the board’s bad side because he tried to challenge a traffic ticket given to his wife by a red light camera in Beaverton, Oregon, in 2013. He challenged the ticket by questioning the timing of the yellow lights at intersections where the cameras had been installed, using knowledge from his degree in electrical engineering and his experience working the Swedish Air Force and various technical jobs since immigrating to the United States in 1992. His research landed him in the media spotlight—in 2014, he presented his evidence on an episode of 60 Minutes—and earned him an invitation to present his findings to the ITE.

But the Oregon board said Järlström’s research amounted to practicing engineering without a license. In a 2014 letter, the board told Järlström that even calling himself an “electronics engineer” and the use of the phrase “I am an engineer” were enough to “create violations” that could result in a $500 fine.

Järlström fought back. With the help of the Institute for Justice, a libertarian law firm that often challenges ridiculous licensing laws, Järlström took his case to federal court. The trial was a disaster for the licensing board, which was forced to concede that its attempt to silence Järlström “was not narrowly tailored to any compelling state interests.” The board refunded the $500 fine, was prohibited from targeting Järlström again “for his speech about traffic lights and his description of himself as an engineer except in the context of professional or commercial speech,” and got a public dressing-down from Judge Stacie F. Beckerman.

Beckerman’s ruling ordered the Oregon board to restrict its policing of licensing issues exclusively to individuals who are working as professional engineers—that is, being hired to do engineering work—rather than simply practicing engineering skills. That seems like a necessary restriction, considering the board’s history of investigating everyone from amateur engineers like Järlström to political candidates who promised to “engineer solutions” and even a Portland magazine that credited a local leader for being the engineer, metaphorically, of a new bridge project in the city.

Free to work without overzealous licensing boards breathing down his neck, Järlström has now made an important change to how traffic light timing will work. Specifically, his formula takes into account the time required for drivers to slow down if they are turning at an intersection. It has the potential to improve safety and to cut down on erroneous tickets at intersections with automated red light cameras like the one that nabbed Järlström’s wife in 2013.

“It didn’t take an engineering license to realize that the formula for traffic light timing was flawed,” Järlström said in an Institute for Justice press release. “Hopefully this change will give everyone a little more time to get through an intersection safely.”

So the next time you narrowly skip through an intersection before the light turns red, you can thank Järlström—and the attorneys and judges who stood up for his right to do math without a license.

“The First Amendment protects Americans’ right to speak regardless of whether they are right or wrong,” Sam Gedge, an Institute for Justice attorney, said in the press release. “In Mats’s case, the ITE committee’s decision suggests that he not only has a right to speak, but also, that he was right all along.”

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Rabobank: An “Epoch-Marking” Moment In Treasury Yields Is Imminent

Rabobank: An “Epoch-Marking” Moment In Treasury Yields Is Imminent

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

The 1%

On Friday I was briefly conversing with the head of our Rates Strategy team about the virus and markets. As equities and US Treasury 10-year yields plummeted in tandem, we mused over how long it would be before we printed the psychological and epoch-marking sub-1% level. “Not long after the first US virus death,” was the conclusion.

Well, here we are. As the White House adopts a far more sombre tone, one US citizen has died from Covid-19, and clusters of cases continue to spread across the States with no link to China. Panic buying is being seen in places. In Iran, things are reported to be totally out of control, or so the social media rumors have it when the country is still closed off after the recent violent crackdown on protests, and when official news-flow is still Panglossian. In Europe, cases are also soaring exponentially and lockdowns are slowly spreading. No meetings of over 5,000 people now says France: because at 4,999 the virus isn’t transmissible, obviously. No cessation to free movement either, because EU27 > COVID19. In short, the virus trend surely says “sub-1%” imminently.

Indeed, Monday morning in Asia we saw the US 10-year hit 1.03% before rebounding back to 1.10% again, and 10-year Aussies trade at 0.68%, through the level of the OCR. In Japan, 10-year JGBs got to -0.18%.  

The cause for the yield plunge was obvious. Saturday’s China PMI data were frankly shocking. Manufacturing was at 35.7 and services at 28.9: these are not recessionary levels, but outright depressionary. The private Caixin PMI was also awful at 40.3, again saying a deep downturn is biting. Of course, the real issue is if we get a V-shaped recovery in output – or in virus infections. Optimists, and Chinese stocks this morning, are cheering the former – and Chinese stocks are always freely traded and never, ever manipulated by the authorities, as well all know. Realists, and NASA satellite imagery of no pollution over China, lean towards the latter: as does one anecdotal, unsubstantiated report trending over the weekend that China has been ordering factories to leave the lights on to make them look busier from space and to boost electricity output in case pesky foreigners start trying to use that as a GDP proxy.

The cause for the yield bounce, apart from Potemkin Chinese stocks, purely technical functions, and Goldman Sachs saying they see this all as a brief blip, are remaining hopes that ‘central banks have this’. For example, Friday saw Fed Chairman Powell step in with a public statement: “The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.” He didn’t actually do anything over the weekend, as the whispers had had it, but at least he mentioned that he has noticed what is going on. The BOJ this morning has also come out and made clear that it too has noticed that things are not going well (and recall Japan was already in recession, which today’s Q4 capex data at -5.0% only underlines). That is again being seen as positive. On such slim hopes are attempted market rallies based, it seems.

As the rest of the world outside China heads for the same kind of voluntary and obligatory virus lockdowns and NOT-BAU as are already the case in China, raising the question of who China will be selling all its output to once it finally gets up and running again, what is the Fed going to do and how is it going to help? Let’s say they do nothing: they look heartless. Through 1% we go. Let’s say they go 25bp: they look ridiculous. How does 25bp off Fed Funds compensate for a rolling economic panic and lockdown, and for simultaneous supply shocks and demand destruction? Through 1% we go. Let’s say they go 50bp: they then risk looking powerless. After a brief rally in stocks and yields, everything will reverse and the question will be asked “What difference does another 25bp on top of 25bp make?” – and that’s the Fed’s biggest gun being sniffed at. Through 1% we go.

Of course, with our equity-obsessed Fed it’s fairly clear what they will eventually do. Even more so when President Trump is of one mind with the Fed in that key regard, as he used a virus press briefing to lambast the central bank again, adding “We need a Fed that’s going to be a leader,” and asking why the US doesn’t have the lowest interest rates in the world, as if this were a competition. Which it may well soon be.

Talking of the 1%, there might also be some temporary lift for equities and yields today from the South Carolina Democratic primary results. There, voters resoundingly rejected an ageing, white, wealthy, handsy, gaffe-prone president surrounded by Ukraine-related family scandals… by opting for Joe “White Walker” Biden over Bernie Sanders and his anti-1% message. Expect much US media exhaling and talk of a Comeback even as Bernie remains ahead in 10 of the 14 states voting tomorrow on Super Tuesday.

Apart from viruses and caucuses, Europe wakes up today worrying about two other things: The UK and Turkey, and the two are arguably linked. Trade negotiations with the U.K. have started badly and are going to get worse now PM Johnson is allegedly playing hardball by making security contingent on trade access: no trade deal, no automatic UK military support for Europe. With the US also threatening the same, who will be defending Europe? Not Europe, based on its defence-spending plans under the proposed post-Brexit budget. For many countries the 1% figure of military spending to GDP is still closer than the 2% that NATO and the US would like to see.

Meanwhile, Turkey is threatening to reopen its borders and openly encourage Syrian refugees to flow West again: just what an increasingly-populist, virus-struck EU needs to see. President Erdogan has made clear the price for stopping this refugee flow: Europe and the US must give him military support vs Syria (read Russia), where he has just shot down two Syrian jets and blown up a Russian air defence system (not the expensive one he just bought from Russia, which has seen questions asked in the US over how Turkey can also stay in NATO). With the US leaving Afghanistan and in no mood to get dragged directly into a new pointless war, Turkey looks most unlikely to get the support it wants. In which case, what? Uncertainty and unpleasantness for the EU – and more reason to buy bonds.

Frankly, I am sure you can find 99 Dailies written in the Asian time-zone that are more upbeat than this one, especially the ones using official Chinese and/or Fed inputs as their output. In this regard (and only in this regard!) I am happy to be in the 1% – and let the rest eat cake.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/02/2020 – 10:54

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3cnThub Tyler Durden

Oregon Tried To Silence This Engineer’s Red Light Camera Research. Now Experts Say He Was Right All Along.

More than five years after Mats Järlström was threatened with fines for presenting data that challenged Oregon’s red light camera program, his research has changed the way traffic engineers will calculate the timing of yellow lights.

The Institute of Traffic Engineers (ITE), an international group that publishes guidelines and best practices with an eye towards safety and mobility, published an update to its guidance for traffic signal timing last week. The new standard takes into account a wide variety of factors, including vehicle approach speeds, deceleration rates, intersection width, vehicle length, and more, according to an ITE statement announcing the changes. But Järlström’s research—specifically, his “extended kinematic equation“—is cited as playing a key role in the ITE’s updated yellow light timing formula.

That research never would have seen the light of day if the Oregon Board of Examiners for Engineering and Land Surveying had its way.

Järlström got on the board’s bad side because he tried to challenge a traffic ticket given to his wife by a red light camera in Beaverton, Oregon, in 2013. He challenged the ticket by questioning the timing of the yellow lights at intersections where the cameras had been installed, using knowledge from his degree in electrical engineering and his experience working the Swedish Air Force and various technical jobs since immigrating to the United States in 1992. His research landed him in the media spotlight—in 2014, he presented his evidence on an episode of 60 Minutes—and earned him an invitation to present his findings to the ITE.

But the Oregon board said Järlström’s research amounted to practicing engineering without a license. In a 2014 letter, the board told Järlström that even calling himself an “electronics engineer” and the use of the phrase “I am an engineer” were enough to “create violations” that could result in a $500 fine.

Järlström fought back. With the help of the Institute for Justice, a libertarian law firm that often challenges ridiculous licensing laws, Järlström took his case to federal court. The trial was a disaster for the licensing board, which was forced to concede that its attempt to silence Järlström “was not narrowly tailored to any compelling state interests.” The board refunded the $500 fine, was prohibited from targeting Järlström again “for his speech about traffic lights and his description of himself as an engineer except in the context of professional or commercial speech,” and got a public dressing-down from Judge Stacie F. Beckerman.

Beckerman’s ruling ordered the Oregon board to restrict its policing of licensing issues exclusively to individuals who are working as professional engineers—that is, being hired to do engineering work—rather than simply practicing engineering skills. That seems like a necessary restriction, considering the board’s history of investigating everyone from amateur engineers like Järlström to political candidates who promised to “engineer solutions” and even a Portland magazine that credited a local leader for being the engineer, metaphorically, of a new bridge project in the city.

Free to work without overzealous licensing boards breathing down his neck, Järlström has now made an important change to how traffic light timing will work. Specifically, his formula takes into account the time required for drivers to slow down if they are turning at an intersection. It has the potential to improve safety and to cut down on erroneous tickets at intersections with automated red light cameras like the one that nabbed Järlström’s wife in 2013.

“It didn’t take an engineering license to realize that the formula for traffic light timing was flawed,” Järlström said in an Institute for Justice press release. “Hopefully this change will give everyone a little more time to get through an intersection safely.”

So the next time you narrowly skip through an intersection before the light turns red, you can thank Järlström—and the attorneys and judges who stood up for his right to do math without a license.

“The First Amendment protects Americans’ right to speak regardless of whether they are right or wrong,” Sam Gedge, an Institute for Justice attorney, said in the press release. “In Mats’s case, the ITE committee’s decision suggests that he not only has a right to speak, but also, that he was right all along.”

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Gloria Alvarez Is Fighting Socialism in Latin America

Gloria Álvarez became one of the best-known libertarian personalities in Latin America in 2014, after she gave a talk arguing against populism on both left and right and pointing out the absurdity of admiring the socialist dictatorships in Venezuela and Cuba.

The 35-year-old granddaughter of Cuban and Hungarian refugees is the host of the program Liber Viernes, or Free Fridays, on the Guatemalan radio station Libertopolis, and she’s the author of several books, including The Populist Deception, How To Talk to a Progressive, and How To Talk to a Conservative.

Nick Gillespie sat down with Álvarez at a Reason Foundation conference in Guatemala to talk about the resurgence of socialism in Latin America, reaching young people with libertarian ideas, and why she believes that political, cultural, economic, and sexual freedom are all intertwined and non-negotiable.

Interview by Nick Gillespie. Edited by Ian Keyser. Intro by Lex Villena. Cameras by Jim Epstein and Pablo Gordillo.

Modum’ by Kai Engel is licensed under CC BY 4.0

Photo credit Zuma/Newscom

Related links:

Gloria Álvarez on Instagram.

Gloria Álvarez on Twitter.

Gloria Álvarez at Libertopolis.

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