Democrats’ “Terrorist Insurrection” Narrative Collapses As Most Capitol Rioters Likely Won’t Face Jail Time

Democrats’ “Terrorist Insurrection” Narrative Collapses As Most Capitol Rioters Likely Won’t Face Jail Time

With prosecutors expected to announce the first plea deals for individuals charged as part of the Capitol Riots on Jan. 6  in the coming days, Politico reports that many of the suspects allegedly involved in the “attempted insurrection” likely won’t face jail time, which could be a “jarring reality check” for (mostly liberal) Americans outraged by the “storming” of the Capitol.

While a handful of defendants could face jail time for vandalism, assault or even murder/manslaughter for fighting with Capitol Hill police during the Jan. 6 incident, the vast majority will likely be hit with a slap on the wrist. The reason being that protests on the Capitol are extremely commonplace, and legally speaking, most of those charged aren’t culpable for charges beyond simple trespassing. If judges tried to change this up, they would then need to hand down more strict punishments to protesters charged with interrupting Congressional votes or the State of the Union (tactics that, while they don’t always attract media attention, are still key parts of the progressive toolkit)

There are two main reasons: Although prosecutors have loaded up their charging documents with language about the existential threat of the insurrection to the republic, the actions of many of the individual rioters often boiled down to trespassing. And judges have wrestled with how aggressively to lump those cases in with those of the more sinister suspects.

“My bet is a lot of these cases will get resolved and probably without prison time or jail time,” said Erica Hashimoto, a former federal public defender who is now a law professor at Georgetown. “One of the core values of this country is that we can protest if we disagree with our government. Of course, some protests involve criminal acts, but as long as the people who are trying to express their view do not engage in violence, misdemeanors may be more appropriate than felonies.”

Even though the administration has no sway (at least, in theory) over judges’ sentencing decisions, a wave of lenient sentences could be a PR disaster for Biden & Co., as members of the hyper-progressive “squad” would likely seize the opportunity to slam the administration for letting a small army of alleged “white supremacists” off the hook. At one point, Biden and other senior Democrats were saying the rioters’ behavior bordered on “sedition”, speculation that the media took and ran with.

The prospect of dozens of Jan. 6 rioters cutting deals for minor sentences could be hard to explain for the Biden administration, which has characterized the Capitol Hill mob as a uniquely dangerous threat. Before assuming office, Biden said the rioters’ attempt to overturn the election results by force “borders on sedition”; Attorney General Merrick Garland has called the prosecutions his top early priority, describing the storming of Congress as “a heinous attack that sought to disrupt a cornerstone of our democracy, the peaceful transfer of power to a newly elected government.”

If the last decade has taught us anything, it’s that there’s no longer any room for nuance in political messaging. And the high expectations set by DoJ prosecutors, who described elaborate plots to murder lawmakers and touted a cache of molotov cocktails seized by officers, have deflated somewhat as new information has emerged.

The American Thinker’s Monica Showalter expands on this in a piece entitled “Biden left with egg on his face as facts of Capitol ‘riot’ wind through courts”.where she argues that the nigh-inevitable outcome of the Capitol Riot prosecutions will be an embarrassment of the administration that has tried to portray the “riot” as a legitimate act of insurrection, and claimed that the protesters fully intended to overthrow the Congress and instate President Trump as “president for life.”

The rest was just protest theatre, plenty of arrests, lot of trespassing, some vandalism, lots of selfies posted conveniently for prosecutors on social media, lots of tattling, and no question as to how the outcome was going to turn out. There were five deaths, four of unarmed protestors, including one who was shot at close range in the neck by an unnamed Capitol police officer, and one of a police officer who was quickly cremated amid shifting stories, and a mendacious New York Times report, with inflammatory claims about the circumstances of how he died. That’s since been discredited, leaving them with egg all over their faces.

The arrests of the protestors are now winding their way through the courts. And surprise, surprise, the prosecutors, who are probably leftists themselves, are not finding any grand plots. All of Joe Biden’s windblowing about the ‘threat to democracy is coming to naught. There never was a threat to democracy. There was never a grand ‘insurrection.’ No heads on pikes, no torches. There were just conservatives and marginal characters-who-never-vote acting like Code Pink or Black Lives Matter.

But the administration isn’t the only institution that might have some ‘splaining’ to do: the media, as Showalter points out, was also complicit.

The press seems to have been complicit. As I noted here, a CNN reporter reportedly danced with glee with a known leftist rioter who’s since been arrested for acts at the Capitol, shouting, “We did it!” with him, which if true suggests some kind of complicity. Someone needs to start answering questions about that.

Now the Times gets rid of its bad reporting, post-impeachment, when it no longer matters, claiming that its two official sources somehow had bad information. Who the hell were these bounders? A good reporter would get rid of bad sources like a bad penny based on how they damaged his credibility, but not these guys — they continue to protect them. The Times doesn’t really care about what this stuff does to their credibility based on this behavior. Yet if they were real journalists, they’d get to the bottom of this and really report how they had been used by creeps spreading false information for political gain. What were their bad sources’ motives? Were they worthy as sources or political operatives with an agenda? But this is being hidden in that hope-to-not-be-noticed “oopsie note” at the top of their lower-than-tabloid mendacious story.

With this in mind, we wouldn’t be surprised to see coverage of the capitol riot prosecution slowly fade away before the sentences are handed down.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 16:41

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America’s Cities Are Being Turned Into Crime-Ridden War-Zones; Murder Rates Are Way Up Again In 2021

America’s Cities Are Being Turned Into Crime-Ridden War-Zones; Murder Rates Are Way Up Again In 2021

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The wealthy are reveling in their giant mountains of money, but meanwhile our society is literally coming apart at the seams all around us.  The stock market has been hovering near all-time record highs, and for those at the very top of the economic pyramid these may seem like the best of times.  But for most Americans, the “good old days” are a long distant memory.  More than 70 million new claims for unemployment benefits have been filed over the past year, poverty is absolutely exploding all around us, and crime rates are shooting higher at an unprecedented rate. 

In fact, one study of 34 big U.S. cities found that their murder rates rose by an average of 30 percent in 2020…

A study by the National Commission on Covid-19 and Criminal Justice found that murders increased by 30% across 34 large U.S. cities.

In some areas, carjackings, robberies, shootings, sexual assaults and violence have become so common that it seems like the crime literally never stops.

Unless you have a death wish, there are certain parts of Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia and Baltimore that you should never enter night or day.  If you doubt me, just go wander the streets of the worst neighborhoods of those cities and see what happens to you.

This was supposed to be a year when crime rates began to return to normal, but instead they are on the rise again.  One study that looked at 37 large U.S. cities found that murder rates are up by an average of 18 percent so far in 2021…

The big increase in the murder rate in the United States in 2020 has carried over to 2021.

A sample of 37 cities with data available for the first three months of this year shows murder up 18 percent relative to the same period last year.

What is truly frightening is that this is about as good as things are going to get in America from here on out.

So if murder rates are spiking this much under relatively good conditions, what will our cities look like when things get really crazy?

Some of the crimes that we are witnessing are almost too horrible for words.  For example, just consider what just happened to a 12-year-old boy in Miami

A suspect in a black car kidnapped the boy at about 2 a.m. early Saturday morning from a Miami street, according to the Miami-Dade Police Department.

He drove a few blocks, raped the boy, and then shoved him out of the car and drove off, police said.

A good Samaritan on a bike near the scene of the crime came to the boy’s rescue. He was bleeding from the head and said he had been shot.

How sick do you have to be in order to do something like that?

Sadly, I could write about nightmarish crimes such as this every single day of the week if I wanted to, because they happen constantly.

Much of the crime boom is being fueled by gangs.  There are more than 100,000 gang members living in the city of Chicago alone, and a steady stream of illegal immigrants ensures that the gangs will always have an influx of new recruits.

Securing our borders would go a long way toward solving this problem, but we refuse to do that.

Just recently, a sheriff in Texas took a reporter from the Daily Mail down to “the easiest illegal border crossing along the Rio Grande”

The crossing point is on private property where an abandoned house sits on a quiet rural street that runs parallel to the Rio Grande, about 5 miles out of town from Del Rio, Texas, 150 miles southwest of San Antonio.

Law enforcement has nicknamed it ‘Border Lawn.’

‘It’s the easiest illegal border crossing along the Rio Grande,’ Val Verde County Sheriff Joe Frank Martinez told DailyMail.com in an exclusive interview.

When the river is low, immigrants can wade across the Rio Grande in about five minutes.

Authorities know that hordes of people come across the border at this spot each week, but they won’t stop it.

Of course any immigrants that are detained need to be held somewhere, and facilities at the border are already packed beyond overflowing.  In particular, the infamous facility in Donna, Texas is already holding more than 10 times more migrants than it was designed to hold

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) holding facility in Donna, Texas, is supposed to house no more than 250 migrants during the coronavirus pandemic.

On Tuesday, the tent complex was holding more than 4,100 migrants, including 3,200 unaccompanied children, according to Oscar Escamilla, a Border Patrol official in the Rio Grande Valley who briefed reporters during the first press tour of a CBP facility under President Biden.

So much of the immigration debate is focused on the unfortunate children that are being held in places such as this, but that is just a drop in the bucket.

Each week, thousands of grown men illegally cross the border without being detained at all.  Many of those grown men end up in our core urban areas, and with few legitimate employment prospects available many of them turn to crime.

In an article that I published yesterday entitled “We Have Never Seen A Home Buying Frenzy Quite Like This”, I discussed the fact that we have seen a mass exodus from our core urban areas over the past year.  Millions of Americans have been looking to buy homes in desirable rural and suburban locations, and this has pushed housing prices into the stratosphere.

Today, I came across another example of this phenomenon.  122 offers were made on a 1,400 square foot home that was listed for sale in Citrus Heights, California in just one weekend

A Citrus Heights home in a quiet cul-de-sac received 122 offers in one weekend on the market.

The 1,400 square feet home has three bedrooms, two baths and a spacious backyard with a swimming pool and an asking price of $399,900.00.

Could you imagine paying $400,000 for a house that is just 1,400 square feet in size?

The real estate agent that listed this property was astounded to receive so many offers, because it wasn’t underpriced at all

“People would think that it was underpriced. It was not underpriced. It was straight on with the comps,” said Deb Brittan, the listing agent for the property. “I had hoped, I thought, maybe if we get 20 offers that would be amazing.”

As for the couple that sold the house, they don’t need it anymore because they are moving to Idaho.

As conditions in the United States continue to deteriorate, we will continue to see people flock to rural and suburban communities at an unprecedented rate.

So if you are planning to move, I would not wait.

Millions of Americans have already been priced out of the market, and the feeding frenzy is not going to subside any time soon.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 16:20

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Bitcoin & Black Gold Soared In Q1, Treasuries Suffer Biggest Loss In Over 40 Years

Bitcoin & Black Gold Soared In Q1, Treasuries Suffer Biggest Loss In Over 40 Years

For the fourth straight quarter, US stocks dramatically outperformed Treasuries…

Source: Bloomberg

S&P gained over 6% as Treasury’s total return fell over 4%…

Source: Bloomberg

And despite all of JPM’s wailing of massive rebalance flows, Small Caps and Big-Tech have soared this week (as bonds were dumped)…

Trannies were the best-performing major index in the US in Q1 (up 17%), followed by Small Caps (+12%). The last couple of days melt-up in big-tech dragged then positive for the quarter (Nasdaq 100 +2%)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 4th straight quarterly gain for US stocks in a row.

Cyclicals (up for the 4th straight quarter) dominated Defensives (up 10% vs 3.5% in Q1)…

Source: Bloomberg

Value stocks (+10% – 4th straight quarterly gain) dramatically decoupled (higher) from growth stocks (+2.4%) from Mid-Feb…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks soared 30% in Q1 (after rising 26% in Q4) and Tech underwhelmed (but was still higher in Q1…

Source: Bloomberg

The “Most Shorted” stocks in the US markets soared a stunning 33% in Q1 leaving hedge funds scrambling (after the GME debacle) for a modest 3.6% gain in their most-owned stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

HY Bond prices ended Q1 lower – the first quarterly loss since Q1 2020’s crash…

Source: Bloomberg

The entire Treasury complex was sold in Q1 but the long-end was an utter bloodbath with 10Y yields up 80bps!!

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury’s Total Return in Q1 was worst since Q3 1980.

Source: Bloomberg

5Y Yields have soared recently and hover now at the 2016 spike lows…

Source: Bloomberg

After 3 straight quarterly losses, the dollar surged in Q1 to its highest since early November…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold’s worst quarter since Q4 2016 (and worst Q1 since 1982) as the precious metal plunged from almost $1960 at its early January highs to almost $1675 at its lows this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged back above $1700 today though ahead of Biden’s infrastructure bill announcement…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil surged over 25% in Q1, its best quarter since Q2 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

But we note that WTI tumbled back below $60 this afternoon as Macron unveiled a new 4-week long total national lockdown in France (ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting)…

Cryptos all soared in Q1 with Bitcoin surging over 100% in Q1 – its 4th quarterly gain in a row; and Ethereum exploding 150% in Q1 – its best quarter on record…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin flash-crashed $3,000 overnight but buyers bid it all the way back up during the day session…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that global aggregate central bank balance sheets went absolutely nowhere in Q1, hardly supportive of ‘stonks’ and perhaps why Nasdaq also went absolutely nowhere.

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 16:00

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SEC Opens Probe Into Archegos Chaos, Deutsche Bank Confirms ‘Quick Sale’ To Avoid All Losses

SEC Opens Probe Into Archegos Chaos, Deutsche Bank Confirms ‘Quick Sale’ To Avoid All Losses

As more details from the now infamous debacle surrounding Tiger cub Archegos, whose massive derivative-based exposures spilled out into the open and transformed into the biggest and most painful rolling margin call to hit Wall Street since Lehman, we now know that at least six Prime Brokers scrambled to unwind the biggest hedge fund blowup since LTCM without hammering the overall market.

To “make a living in this business… be first, be smarter, or cheat…”

We previously noted that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were the “first” to break ranks and rejected the efforts of Credit Suisse’s emissaries who tried to create consensus to unwind the positions without sparking a panic.

As we now also know, Nomura and Credit Suisse which dithered and were unsure what to do, seeing their stock crushed and their counterparty risk hedge premia explode higher.

And today we get confirmation that Deutsche Bank was among the early game-theoretical defectors, as Bloomberg reports the big German bank sold about $4 billion of holdings seized in the implosion of Archegos Capital Management in one large private deal on Friday.

It’s unclear whether Deutsche Bank’s sale was to one firm or a consortium. If it was a single buyer, it would be the largest known transaction to emerge from the messy unwind of Hwang’s huge portfolio.

It also brings to almost $30 billion the known value of Archegos investments that have been liquidated so far.

Deutsche Bank joins Wells Fargo in the group of prime brokers that – reportedly emerge unscathed from this debacle.

And now, as is usual after a a major market blowup, The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has initiated a preliminary investigation into Bill Hwang over his leveraged trades that have roiled Wall Street.

Bloomberg reports that, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the inquiry isn’t public, the examination is in its early stages and is being led by the asset-management group in the SEC’s enforcement division.

As a reminder, it’s not the first time that Hwang has been in the SEC’s crosshairs.

In 2012, his former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after the SEC and U.S. prosecutors accused it of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. Hwang opened Archegos, a family office, following the sanctions, as the SEC kicked him out of the hedge fund industry by banning him from managing money on behalf of clients.

We look forward to seeing what they will do this time? And perhaps more notably, will this have a systemic impact on the entire Total Return Swap/Contracts-For-Difference market in US equities that flies under the regulatory radar (and as we have just witnessed in the case of Hwang, can lead to enormous unknown risks to the financial system).

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 15:45

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New York Becomes the 16th State To Approve Marijuana Legalization


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New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo today signed a bill that adds the country’s fourth most populous state to the list of jurisdictions that allow recreational use of marijuana. Counting New York, 16 states have approved general legalization, although South Dakota’s ballot measure is tied up in legal wrangling. New York’s law, which emerged from years of negotiations between Cuomo and legislators, is surprisingly permissive in some respects but includes high taxes and other provisions that compromise the interests of consumers.

Residents 21 or older will be allowed to possess up to three ounces of marijuana and up to 24 grams of cannabis concentrates in public. They also can legally transfer those amounts to other adults “without compensation.” New York’s limits are more generous than the rules in many other states that have legalized marijuana, where public possession typically is limited to one or two ounces. New Yorkers also will be allowed to possess up to five pounds at home.

Marijuana use will be permitted anywhere that tobacco smoking is allowed, plus in specially licensed “consumption sites,” which can operate in conjunction with dispensaries. Local governments will have the authority to prohibit consumption sites within their jurisdictions. Cannabis consumption in places where it is not permitted will be punishable by a $25 fine.

Cities also will be allowed to ban marijuana retailers, provided they act by the end of the year. But they will not be allowed to stop residents from ordering marijuana online and having it delivered by licensed companies.

The legislature wisely eschewed defining marijuana-impaired driving based on THC blood levels, which are not a reliable indicator of intoxication. As under current law, police instead would have to present evidence that a driver is “under the influence,” which can include blood test results, the smell of marijuana, erratic driving, and performance on sobriety tests.

New Yorkers will be allowed to grow up to six plants, half of them mature at any given time, for personal consumption, with a limit of 12 plants per household. But homegrown marijuana won’t be permitted until up to 18 months after the first recreational retailer opens, which may not happen until late next year. That means consumers will have to continue relying on the black market for a year or two and may not be able to legally grow marijuana until late 2023 or early 2024.

The long delay in allowing homegrown marijuana presumably is aimed at helping newly licensed retailers establish themselves and displace the black market. But when it comes to taxes, New York legislators do not seem very keen on helping the industry or consumers.

New York plans to impose an excise tax based on THC content. It also plans to tax concentrates and edibles at higher rates than flowers, which seems redundant and is inconsistent with the goal of taxing doses equally.

The rate per milligram of THC is half a cent for flowers, eight-tenths of a cent for concentrates, and 3 cents for edibles—six times the flower rate. In other words, the excise tax on a 10-milligram dose will be 5 cents for flowers, 8 cents for concentrates, and 30 cents for edibles. These taxes seem to be aimed at encouraging consumers to smoke marijuana rather than eating or vaping it, which does not make much sense if legislators are concerned about the health hazards associated with cannabis consumption.

The excise tax for flowers is 50 cents per gram at a THC concentration of 10 percent and a dollar per gram at a THC concentration of 20 percent. Assuming a retail price of $10 per gram, that amounts to a tax of 5 percent to 10 percent.

The THC content of concentrates such as wax and shatter can be as high as 80 percent. At that concentration, New York’s tax would be $64 per gram, which amounts to a tax of more than 100 percent, assuming a retail price of $40 to $60 per gram.

The excise tax on a chocolate bar that contains 100 milligrams of THC, which Medicine Man in Denver is currently selling for $10, would be $3. Assuming similar costs in New York, that amounts to a 30 percent tax.

But the THC tax is just the beginning. New York also is imposing a 9 percent tax on retail sales of cannabis products, plus an additional 4 percent tax earmarked for local governments. That combined 13 percent levy is on top of the general state and local sales taxes, which run as high as 8.9 percent. In New York City, the total sales tax would be nearly 22 percent, in addition to excise taxes ranging from 5 percent to more than 100 percent, depending on the type of product and its THC content.

New York’s marijuana-specific taxes—the THC tax plus the special sales tax—are much higher than the levies collected by several other states. Alaska, for example, imposes a wholesale excise tax of $50 per ounce of flowers; it has no statewide marijuana sales tax (or general sales tax), although some cities tax cannabis sales at rates ranging from 3 percent to 5 percent.

Illinois taxes wholesale transfers at 7 percent and collects a 10 percent marijuana sales tax on products with THC concentrations of no more than 35 percent. Michigan imposes the same statewide tax on retail sales. Massachusetts has a 10.75 percent state tax on retail marijuana sales, and cities can add their own taxes of up to 3 percent. Maine collects $335 per pound of flowers from growers and a 10 percent tax on retail sales.

These states seem to recognize that heavy taxes make it harder for licensed retailers to compete with black-market dealers. New York, not so much.

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We Are As Gods: Stewart Brand & The Fight to Bring Back Woolly Mammoths


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In a famous 2005 commencement speech, Apple’s Steve Jobs counseled graduates to “stay hungry, stay foolish.” He was quoting Stewart Brand, a man who has been called “the intellectual Johnny Appleseed of the counterculture” and is the subject of the new documentary We Are As Gods, co-directed by David Alvarado and Jason Sussberg.

Born in 1938, Brand was a Merry Prankster who helped conduct Ken Kesey’s legendary acid tests in the 1960s. His guerilla campaign of selling buttons that asked “Why haven’t we seen a photograph of the whole earth yet?” pushed NASA to release the first image of the planet from space and helped inspire the first Earth Day celebrations. From 1968 to 1971, he published the Whole Earth Catalog, which quickly became a bible to hippies on communes and city-dwelling techno-geeks such as Jobs, whose commencement-day quote comes from the final issue of the magazine. The title of the new documentary comes from the first issue, which boldly announced, “We are as gods and might as well get good at it.”

Brand helped shape early techno-culture and cyberspace by reporting on the personal computer revolution and interacting with many of its key figures in the early 1970s. His ideas were instrumental in the creation of the Well, one of the earliest online communities, and he helped found The Long Now Foundation, which seeks to lengthen and deepen the way we all think about the past and the future.

Now in his 80s, Brand’s current passion is Revive & Restore, an organization that is leading the “de-extinction movement” by using biotechnology to bring back plants and animals including the American Chestnut tree, the passenger pigeon, and the woolly mammoth. Unlike so many in the environmentalist movement he helped create, Brand has always viewed technology in positive, optimistic terms.

“Humans actually have been getting better at a lot of things for a long time in terms of heading off various diseases, heading off poverty and heading off a lot of things,” Brand tells Reason while explaining his support for nuclear energy, the de-extinction movement, and other controversial technologies. “You can’t count on the past ways of making it better to fix whatever the current problems are. You have to keep discovering new ones.” He also updates “stay hungry, stay foolish” for a world facing a global pandemic and environmental concerns: “Try everything,” he says. “Take nothing off the table.”

Produced and edited by Meredith Bragg; Illustration: Lex Villena; Source Image: Mark Mahaney

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Wisconsin S. Ct. Strikes Down Governor’s Emergency Decrees

From the majority opnion in Fabick v. Evers, decided today by a 4-3 vote of the Wisconsin Supreme Court:

Wisconsin Stat. § 323.10 specifies that no state of emergency may last longer than 60 days unless it “is extended by joint resolution of the legislature,” and that the legislature may cut short a state of emergency by joint resolution. The statute contemplates that the power to end and to refuse to extend a state of emergency resides with the legislature even when the underlying occurrence creating the emergency remains a threat. Pursuant to this straightforward statutory language, the governor may not deploy his emergency powers by issuing new states of emergency for the same statutory occurrence….

Read according to its plain language, in context, along with surrounding statutes, and consistent with its purpose, the best reading of Wis. Stat. § 323.10 is that it provides the governor the authority to declare a state of emergency related to public health when the conditions for a public health emergency are satisfied. But when later relying
on the same enabling condition, the governor is subject to the time limits explicitly prescribed by statute.

And from the dissent:

[T]he majority errs by purporting to engage in a straightforward statutory analysis. Yet, it omits any analysis of an essential word in Wis. Stat. § 323.02(16) that is outcome determinative. Left unanalyzed is the statutory term “occurrence,” which when included in the analysis, proves to undermine the majority’s conclusion and mandates a contrary result….

Applying our established definition of “occurrence” to Orders #82 and #90, it is apparent that each is based on a new set of on-the-ground facts, with each new set of facts posing a high probability of either “[a] large number of deaths or serious or long-term disabilities among humans” or “[a] high probability of widespread exposure to a biological … agent that creates a significant risk of substantial future harm to a large number of people.” Thus, the orders were issued in response to separate occurrences and are permissible under the plain language of §§ 323.02(16) and 323.10.

Unlike Order #72, which was premised on preparing Wisconsin for the fight against COVID-19, Order #82 declared a new public health emergency in response to a “new and concerning spike in infections” that without quick intervention “will lead to unnecessary serious illness or death, overwhelm our healthcare system, prevent schools from fully reopening, and unnecessarily undermine economic stability ….” …

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The U.S.-China Relationship Doesn’t Have To Be ‘Increasingly Adversarial’


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America’s relationship with China can’t be reduced to a single label, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN’s Dana Bash in an interview last week. Beijing is not merely a U.S. “adversary,” Blinken said. “There are clearly and increasingly adversarial aspects to the relationship,” he allowed, and there are “certainly competitive ones. There are also still some cooperative ones.”

That nuanced thinking has been evident in a handful of recent remarks from Blinken about China, and it bodes well for the Biden administration’s policy in this arena, which just a few weeks ago was couched in more extreme language. But Blinken’s comments also evince an unjustified—and pessimistic—determinism grounded in a misguided perspective on China’s military situation. The U.S.-China relationship is indeed multifaceted, and it does not have to become “increasingly adversarial.”

Blinken didn’t speak about Chinese military posturing on CNN, but he did address it in a speech at Brussels one day prior, where he named China first on the list of military threats facing the United States. “Beijing’s military ambitions are growing by the year,” Blinken said. That includes “efforts to threaten freedom of navigation, to militarize the South China Sea, to target countries throughout the Indo-Pacific with increasingly sophisticated military capabilities,” he claimed, and “the challenges that once seemed half a world away are no longer remote.”

It’s true that Beijing’s military might is not to be underestimated. Though its nuclear arsenal is still far smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia, by spending and many measures of conventional strength, China’s military is second only to ours. Blinken is likewise correct that Beijing has expanded its maritime power over the past few decades, especially in the South China Sea, and seeks regional preeminence.

Yet this is not the cross-global threat to U.S. security that Blinken suggests, thanks in significant part to unalterable geographic realities. Consider the differences between U.S. and Chinese geography for defense. The United States spans our continent and borders only two neighbors, both close allies. We are insulated from three quarters of the world’s nations by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the world’s greatest natural “moat.”

China, by contrast, is surrounded. It borders four nuclear states—Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, and India—and must pass through multiple island chains to reach open ocean. Many of China’s regional neighbors have robust militaries of their own, and their military spending rapidly adds up to outmatch Beijing’s, whose own spending is substantially directed toward domestic authoritarianism and defense. Some of these neighbors (e.g. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia) are longstanding U.S. partners, but they need no direction from Washington to counterbalance Chinese ambitions.

All this means the United States is neither directly threatened by, nor the only obstacle to, the Chinese regional ambitions Blinken described. “China’s is a force hemmed in by geography in a way traditional great naval powers have not been and is also embedded in a region with other powerful states who have their own important maritime capabilities with the wherewithal to further expand them in the years ahead,” as Defense Priorities fellow Mike Sweeney has observed. Indeed, “the extent of effort by China to enhance its maritime capabilities is also striking in what it has not achieved,” Sweeney notes. “It is little closer to controlling the East, South, and Yellow Seas to the exclusion of other naval forces; nor does it possess the means at this time to decisively invade, occupy, and garrison Taiwan.”

Underestimating Chinese power would distort U.S. defense strategy, but overestimating it will produce distortion, too, and that is Washington’s characteristic temptation. Believing a military threat from Beijing to be greater and more imminent than it is produces the deterministic thinking Blinken demonstrated when he spoke of the U.S.-China relationship becoming “increasingly adversarial.” There is no inherent requirement that this antagonistic dynamic expand. The Thucydides Trap thesis, which postulates that rising and extant great powers must come to blows, is not a law of nature.

It is still possible to steer U.S. engagement with China away from its more adversarial elements—particularly where military conflict is conceivable, as a U.S.-China war would be unthinkably horrific—and toward the cooperative and economically competitive aspects of the relationship to which Blinken also alluded. On one point, at least, the Biden administration is already on the right track: Instead of attempting to “punish” Beijing for the COVID-19 pandemic, for which there is simply no good option, Blinken said the administration is taking a forward-facing approach to “do everything possible to prevent another pandemic.”

More broadly, moving away from an adversarial stance means more—and more realistic—diplomacy and cooperation for mutual advantage. It should also mean rejecting calls for risky U.S. military buildup in China’s near abroad, as well as Washington’s ineffective yet reckless habit of overusing sanctions. China’s rise to be a regional power is likely inevitable, but the slide toward an adversarial relationship can and should be reversed.

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New York Becomes the 16th State To Approve Marijuana Legalization


cannabis-leaves-MIS-Photography-14

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo today signed a bill that adds the country’s fourth most populous state to the list of jurisdictions that allow recreational use of marijuana. Counting New York, 16 states have approved general legalization, although South Dakota’s ballot measure is tied up in legal wrangling. New York’s law, which emerged from years of negotiations between Cuomo and legislators, is surprisingly permissive in some respects but includes high taxes and other provisions that compromise the interests of consumers.

Residents 21 or older will be allowed to possess up to three ounces of marijuana and up to 24 grams of cannabis concentrates in public. They also can legally transfer those amounts to other adults “without compensation.” New York’s limits are more generous than the rules in many other states that have legalized marijuana, where public possession typically is limited to one or two ounces. New Yorkers also will be allowed to possess up to five pounds at home.

Marijuana use will be permitted anywhere that tobacco smoking is allowed, plus in specially licensed “consumption sites,” which can operate in conjunction with dispensaries. Local governments will have the authority to prohibit consumption sites within their jurisdictions. Cannabis consumption in places where it is not permitted will be punishable by a $25 fine.

Cities also will be allowed to ban marijuana retailers, provided they act by the end of the year. But they will not be allowed to stop residents from ordering marijuana online and having it delivered by licensed companies.

The legislature wisely eschewed defining marijuana-impaired driving based on THC blood levels, which are not a reliable indicator of intoxication. As under current law, police instead would have to present evidence that a driver is “under the influence,” which can include blood test results, the smell of marijuana, erratic driving, and performance on sobriety tests.

New Yorkers will be allowed to grow up to six plants, half of them mature at any given time, for personal consumption, with a limit of 12 plants per household. But homegrown marijuana won’t be permitted until up to 18 months after the first recreational retailer opens, which may not happen until late next year. That means consumers will have to continue relying on the black market for a year or two and may not be able to legally grow marijuana until late 2023 or early 2024.

The long delay in allowing homegrown marijuana presumably is aimed at helping newly licensed retailers establish themselves and displace the black market. But when it comes to taxes, New York legislators do not seem very keen on helping the industry or consumers.

New York plans to impose an excise tax based on THC content. It also plans to tax concentrates and edibles at higher rates than flowers, which seems redundant and is inconsistent with the goal of taxing doses equally.

The rate per milligram of THC is half a cent for flowers, eight-tenths of a cent for concentrates, and 3 cents for edibles—six times the flower rate. In other words, the excise tax on a 10-milligram dose will be 5 cents for flowers, 8 cents for concentrates, and 30 cents for edibles. These taxes seem to be aimed at encouraging consumers to smoke marijuana rather than eating or vaping it, which does not make much sense if legislators are concerned about the health hazards associated with cannabis consumption.

The excise tax for flowers is 50 cents per gram at a THC concentration of 10 percent and a dollar per gram at a THC concentration of 20 percent. Assuming a retail price of $10 per gram, that amounts to a tax of 5 percent to 10 percent.

The THC content of concentrates such as wax and shatter can be as high as 80 percent. At that concentration, New York’s tax would be $64 per gram, which amounts to a tax of more than 100 percent, assuming a retail price of $40 to $60 per gram.

The excise tax on a chocolate bar that contains 100 milligrams of THC, which Medicine Man in Denver is currently selling for $10, would be $3. Assuming similar costs in New York, that amounts to a 30 percent tax.

But the THC tax is just the beginning. New York also is imposing a 9 percent tax on retail sales of cannabis products, plus an additional 4 percent tax earmarked for local governments. That combined 13 percent levy is on top of the general state and local sales taxes, which run as high as 8.9 percent. In New York City, the total sales tax would be nearly 22 percent, in addition to excise taxes ranging from 5 percent to more than 100 percent, depending on the type of product and its THC content.

New York’s marijuana-specific taxes—the THC tax plus the special sales tax—are much higher than the levies collected by several other states. Alaska, for example, imposes a wholesale excise tax of $50 per ounce of flowers; it has no statewide marijuana sales tax (or general sales tax), although some cities tax cannabis sales at rates ranging from 3 percent to 5 percent.

Illinois taxes wholesale transfers at 7 percent and collects a 10 percent marijuana sales tax on products with THC concentrations of no more than 35 percent. Michigan imposes the same statewide tax on retail sales. Massachusetts has a 10.75 percent state tax on retail marijuana sales, and cities can add their own taxes of up to 3 percent. Maine collects $335 per pound of flowers from growers and a 10 percent tax on retail sales.

These states seem to recognize that heavy taxes make it harder for licensed retailers to compete with black-market dealers. New York, not so much.

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Prepare For 3 Things: Big Government, Huge Boondoggles, Massive Taxes

Prepare For 3 Things: Big Government, Huge Boondoggles, Massive Taxes

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Progressives have their eyes on on your wallet to pay for their big government schemes. And it looks like Biden will oblige them.

$10 Trillion for Climate and Infrastructure 

The National Review reports Liberal Senators Push Biden for a $10 Trillion Climate and Infrastructure Bill

On Monday, Sen. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) unveiled a climate and infrastructure plan that called for $10 trillion in spending over the next decade. Biden’s initial campaign pledge to invest $2 trillion over four years was already inadequate to confronting climate change, and his coming proposal may be even less so, said Robert Pollin, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who helped craft the Markey-Dingell plan. Pollin said a $3 trillion investment only amounted to about 1.3 percent of America’s gross domestic product.

To put the $10 trillion Markey and Dingell are proposing in perspective, over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office expects that we’ll spend $1.4 trillion on veterans’ programs, $6 trillion on Medicaid, $8.5 trillion on defense, and $8 trillion on all other non-defense discretionary spending. The Markey-Dingell bill would be higher than any of these parts of the budget, only it would come on top of all of these existing expenditures.

Biden’s Big Plans 

The Wall Street Journal comments Behind Biden’s Big Plans: Belief That Government Can Drive Growth

The Biden economic team’s ambitions go beyond size to scope. The centerpiece of their program—a multitrillion-dollar proposal to be rolled out starting Wednesday, less than a month after a $1.9 trillion stimulus—seeks to give Washington a new commercial role in matters ranging from charging stations for electric vehicles to child care, and more responsibility for underwriting education, incomes and higher-paying jobs. 

The administration has also laid the groundwork for regulations aimed at empowering labor unions, restricting big businesses from dominating their markets and prodding banks to lend more to minorities and less for fossil-fuel projects. All while federal debt is currently at a level not seen since World War II.

It all marks a major turning point for economic policy. The gamble underlying the agenda is a belief that government can be a primary driver for growth. It’s an attempt to recalibrate assumptions that have shaped economic policy of both parties since the 1980s: that the public sector is inherently less efficient than the private, and bureaucrats should generally defer to markets.

The administration’s sweeping plans reflect a calculation that “the risk of doing too little outweighs the risk of doing too much,” said White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. “We’re going to be unapologetic about that,” he said. “Government must be a powerful force for good in the lives of Americans.”

Crazy Thinking 

If you think this is crazy, you are thinking correctly. 

If you don’t think this is crazy, you are crazy.

The notion that government can spend money wisely and allocate resources wisely has been disproved countless times. 

Take a look at Soviet 5-year plans, Venezuela, Japan for the last three decades, or dozens of other examples. 

A Word About Capitalism 

The saving grace of capitalism is failure. Good ideas are rewarded, bad ideas fail.

We don’t have failure, we have bank bailouts, student loan bailouts, housing bailouts, and so many moral hazard market interventions by the Fed and Congress I cannot even name all the facilities or tools.

And without failure, you don’t have capitalism. So don’t tell me that we need big government because capitalism doesn’t work.

The problem is lack of capitalism not a failure of capitalism. Governments fail and ideas fail, capitalism doesn’t fail.

Regardless, more big government ideas are about to be tested. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 15:25

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