‘We Have Followed Proper Channels and They’re Not Working’: Dispatch From Minneapolis


121

It’s 10:45 a.m. and the murder trial of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, taking place inside the Hennepin Courthouse in downtown Minneapolis, has entered day two. Outside the courthouse, a handful of people have gathered near a cyclone fence festooned with paper hearts and lined with paintings of Philando Castile, Breonna Taylor, and George Floyd. “All cops are bastards!” chant the assembled. “Indict! Convict! Send that killer cop to jail! The whole damn system is guilty as hell!”

One person not chanting at the moment is Kaia Hirt, who is busy adjusting the heavy chain that she has lashed across her chest and locked to the cyclone fence. A tenth grade English teacher in Champlin, 25 miles north of Minneapolis, Hirt tells me that while she had previously attended “multiple protests throughout the suburbs and in the Twin Cities areas,” the death of George Floyd catalyzed for her the urgent need to fight racist policies and actions.

With the temperature at around 35 degrees and an icy wind making one wish for mittens, Hirt, of Korean extraction and wearing a Black Lives Matter face mask, allows herself to be covered in a blanket as she tells me where she was when George Floyd was killed and why she is here today. Her comments have been edited for length and clarity.

“I am a local activist and organizer and I decided to chain myself to this fence to draw attention to the fact that there are 450 people who were killed by the police in Minnesota since 1984. Their families are still seeking justice for those police homicides. I’ve always protested and I’ve always considered my job as an educator to be an anti-racist and to include [anti-racist] narratives in my curriculum. I always hoped that teaching would help me make a difference in people’s lives and in the world, but after George Floyd, I really felt I needed to do more.” 

Do you remember where you were when you learned George Floyd had died in police custody? 

“I think I was at home and I was on social media when I first saw it, and obviously, like all of us, it was devastating. I was speechless. I cried. And you know, when you teach young black men, and you see the way they’re treated, even in schools, you know that they could be next. The research has been done that people tend to see black males as much older than they are. And treat them as such, even when they’re just boys. Look at Tamir Rice. And so my fear for my students is part of what drives me to be involved. I live in a suburb that is fairly privileged and affluent, Minnetonka, and I’m frustrated with the lack of involvement that I see in the community and sort of an apathy towards things that are happening. And so I began by hosting events out there.”

You were in Minnetonka after Floyd’s death. Did you see much violence in your area?

“Not personally, no. I mean, I definitely protested in the city during that period of time, and I actually protested on a couple of days that later became quite tumultuous. I have friends who were very fearful, who lived in the neighborhood [where Floyd died] at the time, and the constant helicopters; sleeping in the basement instead of the bedroom; sleeping with weapons that they could find around the house, like a hammer or a golf club. 

I believe they were afraid of the unrest that was occurring, and also very afraid of police. My friends were BIPOC [black, indigenous, and people of color]. I was told there were citizen patrols trying to protect their blocks from vandalism or looters or whatever, and I said to a friend, ‘Are you gonna go out?’ And he said, ‘You know, it’s a little different when you’re not white, to go out and try to protect your neighborhood and carry weapons. I could easily be mistaken in some way and be harmed myself.'” 

The reaction to Floyd’s death has been enormous and profound, hundreds of millions of people around the world responding or being affected by what happened to one person in Minneapolis. What would you say to any naysayers who question this response, who say, there’s something going on that is out of proportion to the killing itself?

“I would say those naysayers are absolutely ridiculous and do not understand white supremacist history. I would say those naysayers have not studied slavery. African people were abducted from Africa, taken away from their families on slave ships, brought to this country to labor for free, tortured, humiliated, dehumanized, raped, and killed, followed by a century of lynching; 8,000 people in this country were lynched without trial, without accusation, sometimes with the police being involved. Segregation, which you have from the 1860s to 1960s, essentially legalized racism, where people of color were compared with dogs; the restaurant signs would say, ‘No Dogs, No Mexicans, No Negroes.’ There were segregated water fountains, segregated schools, and it was all hidden under the guise of separate but equal, which we all know is a lie because those things were not equal. 

And then we take a look at the disparities today, particularly here in Minnesota. What you are talking about is disparities in health care, disparities in education, disparities in housing, disparities in employment. How can you say, how can these naysayers—or dare I say white supremacists—say that there is an overreaction to a cop kneeling on a man’s neck, for nine minutes, killing him, over a $20 forged bill? I’m not even gonna say the words that come to mind because you’re recording me, but I’ll tell you what, that is unacceptable. Those people should be ashamed.” 

What do you expect to happen on the ground now? I was told there were thousands of activists from other cities descending on Minneapolis for the trial.

[Hirt laughs.] “There’s five of us now.”

Five, exactly. What are you expecting to happen?

“Listen, the people of Minneapolis and Saint Paul, the activists, we’re tired. We are very tired because we have been fighting for justice not just for George Floyd, but for these 450 people who have lost their lives to police homicide, and you know what? If we’re angry, we have every right to be angry. We are a peaceful group. We are about peace, we are about safety, and we are about love. We don’t burn our own community down, but I’ll tell you what, Martin Luther King Jr. said that riots are the language of the unheard. People of color have been asked to wait. ‘A right delayed is a right denied,’ OK? And so what we’re talking about is the language of the unheard. The idea that, oh, the liberal white moderate says, ‘Follow proper channels. Wait, this isn’t the right time. Can you do it like this and not like that? Can you please do it in a way that’s pleasing to us; that isn’t scary to us?’ 

We follow proper channels. We try to use democracy. Now we run into obstacles to voting, right? Voter suppression. We try to do it through…I can’t even, I’m so enraged right now. We have followed proper channels and they’re not working. Nothing is changing. Black people are being killed for holding a cellphone while mass shooters, white mass shooters, are apprehended without a hair hurt on their head. There is a disparity and a double standard there that is unacceptable, and anyone who is paying attention can see it.” 

If the trial has a dissatisfying outcome, what happens in the city?

“We are peaceful activists. You need to understand American history, white supremacist history, to understand the suffering and oppression of black people and other people of color, Native indigenous people, okay?” 

I have a Native daughter. 

“But you’re still white.” 

True.

“If there is rioting, that would be completely understandable and that is what Martin Luther King Jr. tells us. He says that we have been unheard; we have been told to wait; we have been told that we’re not resisting in the right way. What is the right way? We kneel during the national anthem. Well, that’s not okay. What is okay? What is peaceful?” 

How long do you plan to stay chained here? 

“As long as I fucking feel like it. These locks are peaceful. This is a peaceful demonstration. It does not destroy the property. It is not violent. It isn’t even loud. Every lock has the name of a person who was killed by the police [written on it]. A person who was killed by the police, along with their story. These aren’t just names. There are stories behind how they were killed.

I’m not saying there will be, but I’m saying, if there are riots [after the trial], you need to understand American history. You need to understand hundreds of years of flat-out oppression and efforts to change everything in a peaceful way. It doesn’t justify anything, but it explains it. And I would not judge one single person if this city burns.”

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If Yields Rise 7bps Today, Q1 Will Be The Worst Quarterly Rout For Treasurys In The 21st Century

If Yields Rise 7bps Today, Q1 Will Be The Worst Quarterly Rout For Treasurys In The 21st Century

On the last day of Q1, the quarter seems to be ending very much how it began, with Treasury yields rising to fresh highs as investors await the announcement of further spending proposals in President Biden’s infrastructure package while buying stocks first (the S&P just hit a new all time high) and asking questions later.

Indeed, as DB’s Henry Allen writes, the rise in 10yr Treasury yields in Q1 so far had reached a massive +82.7bps (0.797bps at the time of writing), which puts them just shy of the 21st century’s other quarterly records back in Q4 2016 (+85bps) when President Trump won the presidential election, and Q2 2009 (+87bps) as the global economy was climbing out of the financial crisis. Of note: even the 2013 taper tantrum was a far more modest, and slow move compared to what we have seen now.

And while everyone is waiting for Biden to reveal further details from his infrastructure package on Wednesday, should today’s Biden speech spark a further climb in yields, that could then leave this as the biggest quarterly rise going all the way back to the Great Bond Massacre of Q1 1994, when yields blew out +94.4bps.

Incidentally, at their peak on Tuesday, the 10Y had reached a 14 month high of 1.77% – their highest level since January last year, aided by the prospect of further stimulus as well as continued progress on the vaccine rollout – which would make the Q1 yield blowout on par with the Q2 2009 yield surge. That said, yields on 10yr Treasuries actually fell back to 1.71% this morning. Real yields (+1.6bps) lost out to inflation expectations (-1.8bps) falling back, while the dollar index strengthened +0.38% to its highest level since Election Day last November.

In terms of what to expect today, Biden will be unveiling his plans in a speech later in Pittsburgh, which are part of his agenda to “Build Back Better” from the pandemic. We’re yet to get the full details, but the Washington Post reported yesterday that it would be worth around $2.25tn, with the focus on physical infrastructure, housing, clean energy and manufacturing, among others.

Currently there is $650 billion earmarked for bridges, highways and ports, while additional $300 billion for housing and manufacturing separately. Here is a full breakdown of the initial proposal, per the NYT:

  • 180bln for research and development
  • 115bln for roads and bridges
  • 85bln for public transit
  • 80bln for Amtrak and freight rail
  • 174bln to encourage EVs via tax credits and other incentives to companies that make EV batteries in the US instead of China
  • 42bln for ports and airports
  • 100bln for broadband
  • 111bln for water infrastructure
  • 300bln to promote advanced manufacturing
  • 400bln spending on in-home care
  • 100bln in programs to update and modernize the electric grid
  • 46bln in fed procurement programs for government agencies to buy fleets of EVs
  • 35bln in R&D programs for cutting-edge, new technologies.
  • 50bln in dedicated investments to improve infrastructure resilience
  • 16bln program intended to help fossil fuel workers transition to new work
  • 10bln for a new “Civilian Climate Corps.”

Today’s speech comes ahead of another address scheduled for next month, in which he’ll be looking at other areas of investment such as healthcare and education. The combined cost of the two parts could reach $4 trillion, and since Magic Money Trees do not actually exist, contrary to what the socialist  policymakers would like you to believe, it’s only a matter of time before the move higher in yields breaks all records.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 11:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Pew4Eb Tyler Durden

‘We Have Followed Proper Channels and They’re Not Working’: Dispatch From Minneapolis


121

It’s 10:45 a.m. and the murder trial of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, taking place inside the Hennepin Courthouse in downtown Minneapolis, has entered day two. Outside the courthouse, a handful of people have gathered near a cyclone fence festooned with paper hearts and lined with paintings of Philando Castile, Breonna Taylor, and George Floyd. “All cops are bastards!” chant the assembled. “Indict! Convict! Send that killer cop to jail! The whole damn system is guilty as hell!”

One person not chanting at the moment is Kaia Hirt, who is busy adjusting the heavy chain that she has lashed across her chest and locked to the cyclone fence. A tenth grade English teacher in Champlin, 25 miles north of Minneapolis, Hirt tells me that while she had previously attended “multiple protests throughout the suburbs and in the Twin Cities areas,” the death of George Floyd catalyzed for her the urgent need to fight racist policies and actions.

With the temperature at around 35 degrees and an icy wind making one wish for mittens, Hirt, of Korean extraction and wearing a Black Lives Matter face mask, allows herself to be covered in a blanket as she tells me where she was when George Floyd was killed and why she is here today. Her comments have been edited for length and clarity.

“I am a local activist and organizer and I decided to chain myself to this fence to draw attention to the fact that there are 450 people who were killed by the police in Minnesota since 1984. Their families are still seeking justice for those police homicides. I’ve always protested and I’ve always considered my job as an educator to be an anti-racist and to include [anti-racist] narratives in my curriculum. I always hoped that teaching would help me make a difference in people’s lives and in the world, but after George Floyd, I really felt I needed to do more.” 

Do you remember where you were when you learned George Floyd had died in police custody? 

“I think I was at home and I was on social media when I first saw it, and obviously, like all of us, it was devastating. I was speechless. I cried. And you know, when you teach young black men, and you see the way they’re treated, even in schools, you know that they could be next. The research has been done that people tend to see black males as much older than they are. And treat them as such, even when they’re just boys. Look at Tamir Rice. And so my fear for my students is part of what drives me to be involved. I live in a suburb that is fairly privileged and affluent, Minnetonka, and I’m frustrated with the lack of involvement that I see in the community and sort of an apathy towards things that are happening. And so I began by hosting events out there.”

You were in Minnetonka after Floyd’s death. Did you see much violence in your area?

“Not personally, no. I mean, I definitely protested in the city during that period of time, and I actually protested on a couple of days that later became quite tumultuous. I have friends who were very fearful, who lived in the neighborhood [where Floyd died] at the time, and the constant helicopters; sleeping in the basement instead of the bedroom; sleeping with weapons that they could find around the house, like a hammer or a golf club. 

I believe they were afraid of the unrest that was occurring, and also very afraid of police. My friends were BIPOC [black, indigenous, and people of color]. I was told there were citizen patrols trying to protect their blocks from vandalism or looters or whatever, and I said to a friend, ‘Are you gonna go out?’ And he said, ‘You know, it’s a little different when you’re not white, to go out and try to protect your neighborhood and carry weapons. I could easily be mistaken in some way and be harmed myself.'” 

The reaction to Floyd’s death has been enormous and profound, hundreds of millions of people around the world responding or being affected by what happened to one person in Minneapolis. What would you say to any naysayers who question this response, who say, there’s something going on that is out of proportion to the killing itself?

“I would say those naysayers are absolutely ridiculous and do not understand white supremacist history. I would say those naysayers have not studied slavery. African people were abducted from Africa, taken away from their families on slave ships, brought to this country to labor for free, tortured, humiliated, dehumanized, raped, and killed, followed by a century of lynching; 8,000 people in this country were lynched without trial, without accusation, sometimes with the police being involved. Segregation, which you have from the 1860s to 1960s, essentially legalized racism, where people of color were compared with dogs; the restaurant signs would say, ‘No Dogs, No Mexicans, No Negroes.’ There were segregated water fountains, segregated schools, and it was all hidden under the guise of separate but equal, which we all know is a lie because those things were not equal. 

And then we take a look at the disparities today, particularly here in Minnesota. What you are talking about is disparities in health care, disparities in education, disparities in housing, disparities in employment. How can you say, how can these naysayers—or dare I say white supremacists—say that there is an overreaction to a cop kneeling on a man’s neck, for nine minutes, killing him, over a $20 forged bill? I’m not even gonna say the words that come to mind because you’re recording me, but I’ll tell you what, that is unacceptable. Those people should be ashamed.” 

What do you expect to happen on the ground now? I was told there were thousands of activists from other cities descending on Minneapolis for the trial.

[Hirt laughs.] “There’s five of us now.”

Five, exactly. What are you expecting to happen?

“Listen, the people of Minneapolis and Saint Paul, the activists, we’re tired. We are very tired because we have been fighting for justice not just for George Floyd, but for these 450 people who have lost their lives to police homicide, and you know what? If we’re angry, we have every right to be angry. We are a peaceful group. We are about peace, we are about safety, and we are about love. We don’t burn our own community down, but I’ll tell you what, Martin Luther King Jr. said that riots are the language of the unheard. People of color have been asked to wait. ‘A right delayed is a right denied,’ OK? And so what we’re talking about is the language of the unheard. The idea that, oh, the liberal white moderate says, ‘Follow proper channels. Wait, this isn’t the right time. Can you do it like this and not like that? Can you please do it in a way that’s pleasing to us; that isn’t scary to us?’ 

We follow proper channels. We try to use democracy. Now we run into obstacles to voting, right? Voter suppression. We try to do it through…I can’t even, I’m so enraged right now. We have followed proper channels and they’re not working. Nothing is changing. Black people are being killed for holding a cellphone while mass shooters, white mass shooters, are apprehended without a hair hurt on their head. There is a disparity and a double standard there that is unacceptable, and anyone who is paying attention can see it.” 

If the trial has a dissatisfying outcome, what happens in the city?

“We are peaceful activists. You need to understand American history, white supremacist history, to understand the suffering and oppression of black people and other people of color, Native indigenous people, okay?” 

I have a Native daughter. 

“But you’re still white.” 

True.

“If there is rioting, that would be completely understandable and that is what Martin Luther King Jr. tells us. He says that we have been unheard; we have been told to wait; we have been told that we’re not resisting in the right way. What is the right way? We kneel during the national anthem. Well, that’s not okay. What is okay? What is peaceful?” 

How long do you plan to stay chained here? 

“As long as I fucking feel like it. These locks are peaceful. This is a peaceful demonstration. It does not destroy the property. It is not violent. It isn’t even loud. Every lock has the name of a person who was killed by the police [written on it]. A person who was killed by the police, along with their story. These aren’t just names. There are stories behind how they were killed.

I’m not saying there will be, but I’m saying, if there are riots [after the trial], you need to understand American history. You need to understand hundreds of years of flat-out oppression and efforts to change everything in a peaceful way. It doesn’t justify anything, but it explains it. And I would not judge one single person if this city burns.”

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D.C. City Council Considers Soundproofing Requirement for Residential Construction To Appease NIMBYs


reason-speaker

Local politicians in Washington, D.C., are choosing to involve themselves in a conflict between tradition and newcomers that could easily solve itself.

In response to mounting complaints from new District residents about loud street music seeping into their homes, several members of the city council have introduced legislation that requires developers to include noise-canceling designs in apartments built near music venues and other hubs of sound-producing activity.

“This legislation seeks to address the rising tension that we are seeing between performers and neighbors who live in buildings or homes that are not adequately soundproofed,” said Councilmember Brianne Nadeau of her Harmonious Living Amendment Act of 2021, which was introduced last week. “The District is a dynamic city with a rich musical heritage and I believe this bill is a path forward to finding harmony.”

Councilmembers Christina Henderson, Janeese Lewis George, and Brooke Pinto are also sponsoring the legislation.

Nadeau’s bill, DCist reports, is being offered as an alternative to a more punitive proposal, the Amplified Noise Amendment Act, which was first floated in 2018, and would have fined people $300 for playing amplified music in public that could be heard beyond 100 feet.

That proposal sparked a stiff backlash from street performers who saw the bill, and the fines contained within it, as an attempt to squash traditional D.C. culture for the benefit of overly sensitive newcomers.

“This will push music out of the District,” musician and community organizer Aaron Myers told DCist at the time. “Music is a very important part of the community. People want to get off the Metro and hear music.”

Controversy flared up again in 2019 when a noise complaint from a neighbor forced a Metro PCS storefront to stop playing the go-go music it’d been blasting without incident for decades.

The music eventually returned, but only after a viral #dontmutedc campaign on social media and the intervention from the T-Mobile CEO himself (the company owns Metro PCS).

That episode helped kill the Amplified Noise Amendment Act, but underlying tensions continued to simmer.

Enter Nadeau’s proposal. Beginning in January 2022, her Harmonious Living Amendment Act requires that all residential construction on parcels abutting “activity areas”—defined as parcels zoned for particular types of mixed uses— incorporate design features that reduce sound levels below specific decibel targets.

The bill also includes sound-reduction design requirements for residential construction in “entertainment areas,” defined as parcels with exterior boundaries within 300 feet of an entertainment venue.

Lease or purchase agreements for existing residential units within those areas would have to include notifications about nearby entertainment venues as well as descriptions of the sound reduction measures the building has in place.

The bill would create a grant program to incentivize music venues to install noise mitigation measures. Property owners would also get tax breaks for soundproofing their buildings.

Nadeau says in a press release that her bill is informed by the “agent of change” principle that London incorporated into its planning code after a large number of music venues there were closed down by noise complaints from the residents of new apartments. This basically adopts a first-come, first-served rule for determining who should have to bear the costs of noise mitigation.

The policy, as explained by the London mayor’s office, requires the city’s boroughs to consider refusing proposals for new residential development near existing entertainment venues that don’t incorporate soundproofing features. On the flipside, buildings that are converted to music venues or other loud uses near existing residential areas are required to adopt noise mitigation measures.

As far as social expectations go, putting the onus on newcomers to acclimate themselves to local norms is entirely reasonable. Witness the justified outrage when a local tourism board suggested in 2019 that D.C. locals adopt the irritating tourist habit of standing on the left side of Metro escalators.

But imposing such a norm via regulation creates all the problems that top-down solutions typically do. Balancing people’s desires for making noise versus their tolerance for hearing it can easily be done through the price mechanism.

Soundproofing new residential units, as Nadeau’s bill would require, will obviously raise the costs of those units. Tenants who’d gladly accept a little more noise—and a lower price to live next to bustling commercial areas—will instead be forced to pay for a benefit they don’t really want.

Developers will either have a harder time filling up buildings made more expensive by regulation or alternatively have to accept less profit renting out soundproofed units that no one was ready to pay for. Either way, their incentive to create more housing in an already expensive city is marginally reduced.

If there really is a market demand for quiet, insulated units in noisy areas, then builders need no government encouragement to soundproof.

There would be some amount of schadenfreude in seeing Nadeau’s bill pass. People who moved into a major city famous for its amplified street music would have their petty noise complaints rebound on them in the form of higher rents.

But that would be a shameful joy for a reason. The solution to overly sensitive newcomers isn’t to placate their complaints with coercive regulation. Rather, it should be to foster a more tolerant atmosphere of the sounds, sights, and, yes, even smells of the city through voluntary means.

People who are still bothered by hearing go-go music can seek out apartments in quieter parts of the city, or seek out pricier units that come with the soundproofing they demand. If that proves too expensive, there’s always the option of decamping to Arlington.

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“But Dr. Fauci Says…”

“But Dr. Fauci Says…”

Authored by Josh Kantrow via AmericanThinker.com,

I was surprised to receive his text message because I had not heard from him in over a year, he had not responded to two of my texts sent eleven and nine months ago, and we used to see each other about every six to eight weeks for coffee or drinks to talk politics.

And it apparently dealt with an urgent matter: “I need to talk to you, ASAP,” it read.

I was concerned he was in trouble, so I responded and we spoke yesterday.

The person I spoke with, who I will call “Jim,” to protect his privacy (although he doesn’t really deserve it), started off the conversation by stating:

“Something is wrong with you.”

When I asked him to elaborate, he said

“People like you are the reason things are not back to normal.”

And on and on his rant went.

The upshot is that Jim, a man of the left in his late 40s, has been following me on social media and was highly agitated about the fact that, since travel opened back up, I’ve spent a significant amount of time roaming around our beautiful country, mostly out west, enjoying the great outdoors hiking, biking, rafting, skiing, etc., with various family members, as I work remotely.

My explanations (not that he deserved any) that we observe all local, state, and federal mandates, and reasonable precautions, fell on deaf ears. 

Jim signaled his virtue throughout this unpleasant conversation by stating that, unlike me, he and his family have largely stayed indoors, in their house, over the past year.

He said that the only exception to this are occasional early morning walks, “when no one else is around,” essential doctor visits, and weekly excursions to the grocery store (he and his wife alternate), where they wear double masks and equipment to protect their eyes. The person doing the shopping then quarantines in a separate room inside their house for a few days. When I asked Jim why he didn’t have his groceries delivered, he had no good answer. When I asked him whether he or any family members had any medical issues that warranted such extreme precautions, he said he was “highly offended” by my use of the word “extreme,” but that no one had any pre-existing medical conditions.

He added, “You know, some of us just want to do our part.”

When I explained that the very outdoor activities that we have been engaging in are healthy, well within guidelines, and even encouraged by public health officials, and that I was, contrary to his statement, “doing my part” in that I was helping small businesses and the travel and hospitality industries who have been ravaged by the lockdowns, he kept saying I was wrong, frequently by invoking some variation of the phrase “But Dr. Fauci says….”

My take is that Jim has a serious crush on Dr. Fauci and desires to receive a “Good Citizen” award in a nationally televised event from him when this is over. Of course, for Jim and those that think like him, it never will be.

Our conversation ended when I asked Jim whether he would jump off a bridge if “Dr. Fauci says.” Jim shouted an expletive at me and hung up the phone.

As I was not given the opportunity, let me use these pages to wish Jim and the virtue-signaling intolerant people who think like him goodbye and good riddance.

For it is they, not people like us, who are doing their level best to stop things from returning to normal.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 11:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3wcXwTf Tyler Durden

D.C. City Council Considers Soundproofing Requirement for Residential Construction To Appease NIMBYs


reason-speaker

Local politicians in Washington, D.C., are choosing to involve themselves in a conflict between tradition and newcomers that could easily solve itself.

In response to mounting complaints from new District residents about loud street music seeping into their homes, several members of city council have introduced legislation that requires developers to include noise-canceling designs in apartments built near music venues and other hubs of sound-producing activity.

“This legislation seeks to address the rising tension that we are seeing between performers and neighbors who live in buildings or homes that are not adequately soundproofed,” said Councilmember Brianne Nadeau of her Harmonious Living Amendment Act of 2021, which was introduced last week. “The District is a dynamic city with a rich musical heritage and I believe this bill is a path forward to finding harmony.”

Councilmembers Christina Henderson, Janeese Lewis George, and Brooke Pinto are also sponsoring the legislation.

Nadeau’s bill, DCist reports, is being offered as an alternative to a more punitive proposal, the Amplified Noise Amendment Act, which was first floated in 2018, and would have fined people $300 for playing amplified music in public that could be heard beyond 100 feet.

That proposal sparked a stiff backlash from street performers who saw the bill, and the fines contained within it, as an attempt to squash traditional D.C. culture for the benefit of overly sensitive newcomers.

“This will push music out of the District,” musician and community organizer Aaron Myers told DCist at the time. “Music is a very important part of the community. People want to get off the Metro and hear music.”

Controversy flared up again in 2019 when a noise complaint from a neighbor forced a Metro PCS storefront to stop playing the go-go music it’d been blasting without incident for decades.

The music eventually returned, but only after a viral #dontmutedc campaign on social media and the intervention from the T-Mobile CEO himself (the company owns Metro PCS).

That episode helped kill the Amplified Noise Amendment Act, but underlying tensions continued to simmer.

Enter Nadeau’s proposal. Beginning in January 2022, her Harmonious Living Amendment Act requires that all residential construction on parcels abutting “activity areas”—defined as parcels zoned for particular types of mixed uses— incorporate design features that reduce sound levels below specific decibel targets.

The bill also includes sound-reduction design requirements for residential construction in “entertainment areas,” defined as parcels with exterior boundaries within 300 feet of an entertainment venue.

Lease or purchase agreements for existing residential units within those areas would have to include notifications about nearby entertainment venues as well as descriptions of the sound reduction measures the building has in place.

The bill would create a grant program to incentivize music venues to install noise mitigation measures. Property owners would also get tax breaks for soundproofing their buildings.

Nadeau says in a press release that her bill is informed by the “agent of change” principle that London incorporated into its planning code after a large number of music venues there were closed down by noise complaints from the residents of new apartments. This basically adopts a first-come, first-served rule for determining who should have to bear the costs of noise mitigation.

The policy, as explained by the London mayor’s office, requires the city’s boroughs to consider refusing proposals for new residential development near existing entertainment venues that don’t incorporate soundproofing features. On the flipside, buildings that are converted to music venues or other loud uses near existing residential areas are required to adopt noise mitigation measures.

As far as social expectations go, putting the onus on newcomers to acclimate themselves to local norms is entirely reasonable. Witness the justified outrage when a local tourism board suggested in 2019 that D.C. locals adopt the irritating tourist habit of standing on the left side of Metro escalators.

But imposing such a norm via regulation creates all the problems that top-down solutions typically do. Balancing people’s desires for making noise versus their tolerance for hearing it can easily be done through the price mechanism.

Soundproofing new residential units, as Nadeau’s bill would require, will obviously raise the costs of those units. Tenants who’d gladly accept a little more noise—and a lower price to live next to bustling commercial areas—will instead be forced to pay for a benefit they don’t really want.

Developers will either have a harder time filling up buildings made more expensive by regulation or alternatively have to accept less profit renting out soundproofed units that no one was ready to pay for. Either way, their incentive to create more housing in an already expensive city is marginally reduced.

If there really is a market demand for quiet, insulated units in noisy areas, then builders need no government encouragement to soundproof.

There would be some amount of schadenfreude in seeing Nadeau’s bill pass. People who moved into a major city famous for its amplified street music would have their petty noise complaints rebound on them in the form of higher rents.

But that would be a shameful joy for a reason. The solution to overly sensitive newcomers isn’t to placate their complaints with coercive regulation. Rather, it should be to foster a more tolerant atmosphere of the sounds, sights, and, yes, even smells of the city through voluntary means.

People who are still bothered by hearing go-go music can seek out apartments in quieter parts of the city, or seek out pricier units that come with the soundproofing they demand. If that proves too expensive, there’s always the option of decamping to Arlington.

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Maersk “Suspends” Many Short-Term Bookings As Suez Backup Strains Capacity 

Maersk “Suspends” Many Short-Term Bookings As Suez Backup Strains Capacity 

The Suez Canal blockage’s ripple effect on the global supply chain has forced Maersk to suspend bookings of short-term contract shipments in many export markets. 

Maersk published a customer advisory this week to inform clients the Suez Canal blockage for six days has heavily impacted its supply chain and significantly reduced capacity. As a result, the world’s largest shipper is suspending bookings of short-term contracts to deal with capacity deficiencies. 

“We have earlier communicated that even when reopened, the blockage of the Suez Canal would have ripple effects on global supply chains for weeks to come,” Maersk said in a customer advisory.

“However, expecting a significant loss in capacity over multiple weeks, depending on market dynamics, we have decided to temporarily cease short term bookings placed via Spot, as well as short term contracts this week and in the immediate future, in these geographical services, the advisory continued. Spot is Maersk’s online booking platform for container shipments.

According to Seatrade Maritime News, the shipper’s suspension of short-term bookings appears to be worldwide: 

The suspension of spot and short-term contracts affects all exports out of Asia which Maersk said was due to expected equipment shortages.

It also covers exports out of West Central Asia to Europe and North Africa, North America East Coast, West Africa via Mediterranean, and Latin America via Mediterranean.

The suspension impacts exports out of Europe to Asia, Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent, and Oceania.

It covers North American exports to Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent, and East Africa, and exports from Latin America from East Coast South America to Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent and Asia via Mediterranean, and from Central America and West Coast South America to Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent.

The suspension also impacts exports from East Africa to Europe, and West Africa to Asia, Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent via Mediterranean.

Maersk told customers the suspension is “only temporary so that we may quickly move existing laden cargo and empty containers to the areas they are most needed. “

Days ago, the shipper warned, “even when the canal gets reopened, the ripple effects on global capacity and equipment are significant.” It could take upwards of a week for normal shipping to resume across the canal.  

The Suez Canal’s near-week closure and the massive build-up of vessels waiting to transit the world’s most important waterway is straining the already highly stretched global supply chain. There’s also “enormous legal issues” mounting. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 11:05

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Hello Fed, Inflation Is Rampant And Obvious; Why Can’t You See It?

Hello Fed, Inflation Is Rampant And Obvious; Why Can’t You See It?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Year-over-year home prices are up 11.2%, some cities even more. The Fed does not see this or count it if they do. Let’s discuss why.

Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

Home prices are running rampant. The national level average year-over-year increase is 11.2%.

Prices have accelerated in the past few months. I discussed the year-over-year acceleration in Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

National and 10-city averages do not tell the full story as the lead chart shows. 

Inflation Disconnect

Owners’ Equivalent Rent

OER stands for Owners’ Equivalent Rent. 

Prior to 2000, home prices, Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), and the Case Shiller national home price index all moved in sync.

This is important because home prices directly used to be in the CPI. Now they aren’t. Only rent is. 

Yet, OER is the Single Largest Component of the CPI with a weight of 24.07%.

In effect, economists substituted rent for home prices in the CPI. Prior to 2000, this did not matter. Now it seriously distorts measures of inflation.

The rationale is home prices are a capital expense not a consumer expense. 

What Should We Measure?

What is it we are measuring or need to measure? 

I suggest we need to measure inflation, not just consumer inflation. 

Home Prices, OER, and CPI Percent Change

Year-Over-Year Percent Changes

  • National Home Prices: 11.2%

  • 10-City Average: 10.9%

  • OER: 2.2%

  • CPI: 1.4%

The CPI allegedly is up a mere 1.4% from a year ago as of January 2021. Let’s calculate inflation by substituting home prices for OER in the CPI as it used to be.

I call the result CS-CPI for Case-Shiller-CPI.

CPI, CS-CPI National, CS-CPI Top 10

Economists claim inflation is up a mere 1.4% year-over-year as of January 2021. 

If we substitute home prices for OER as it used to be (and is far more accurate as well), inflation is up 3.8% from a year ago. 

Having calculated inflation far more accurately than widely believed (yet still understated), we can calculate real interest rates

Real Interest Rates

To determine “real” interest rates, subtract CPI from the Fed Funds Rate.

  • Real Interest Rate as Touted: -1.31%

  • CS-CPI 10-City: -3.59%

  • CS-CPI National: -3.67%

Q&A

Q: With real interest rates close to -4% is it any wonder asset prices and speculation are booming?

A: No

Q: Why can’t the Fed see this?

A: Possibly the Fed can see this. If so it’s on purpose.

The Fed wants inflation and numerous Fed members are openly in praise of it.

Easy Money Quote of the Day: Fed “Won’t Take the Punch Bowl Away”

On March 25, I noted the Easy Money Quote of the Day: Fed “Won’t Take the Punch Bowl Away”

Numerous Fed presidents made speeches. I awarded gold, silver, and bronze medals for the best “easy money” quotes.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly won the gold medal. She said the central bank would show at least “a healthy dose” of patience. ”We are not going to take this punch bowl away,” said Daly.

Does the Fed Understand What They Are Doing?

I don’t know. Either the Fed is blindly ignorant of what’s going on, or it’s on purpose. Take your pick.

The result is a big set of bubbles, whether the Fed sees them or not. 

2% Inflation Target

The Fed’s 2% inflation target is monetary insanity.

Full speed ahead with the stimulus in search of inflation that would be visible to anyone who was not wearing groupthink blinders.

I have a set of questions for Fed Chair Jerome Powell on inflation. Please read them: Hello Jerome Powell We Have Questions.

Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations

A BIS study of deflations shows the Fed’s fear of deflation is foolish.

Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” concluded the study.

For discussion, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Japan has tried what the Fed is doing now for over a decade, with no results.

Yet, Powell hell bent on producing more than 2% inflation until the strategy “works”.

I discuss numerous ways Powell is on the Bank of Japan’s path in Is the Fed Blindly Following Failed Policies of the Bank of Japan?

What Would I Do?

For the answer, please see Reader Question: What Would I do Differently Than the Fed?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 10:45

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WTI Pumps-n-Dumps After Crude Draw Ahead Of OPEC+ Meeting

WTI Pumps-n-Dumps After Crude Draw Ahead Of OPEC+ Meeting

Oil prices chopped around overnight but are basically flat ahead of this morning’s inventory/demand/production data. Weakness came on concerns about the market’s recovery after OPEC and its allies lowered their 2021 demand growth forecast, although strong Chinese factory activities lent some support (China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the quickest pace in three months in March as factories cranked up production after a brief lull during the Lunar New Year holidays).

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, are set to meet on Thursday, to decide on output policy.

“Given this pessimistic outlook, it seems likely that the production quotas will be left in place for another month,” said Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg.

OPEC oil output rose in March as higher supply from Iran countered reductions by other members under a pact with allies, a Reuters survey found, a headwind for its supply-limiting efforts if Tehran’s boost is sustained.

For now, focus is on US activity.

API

  • Crude +3.91mm (-1.5mm exp)

  • Cushing +904k

  • Gasoline -6.012mm (+700k exp)

  • Distillates +2.595mm (+500k exp)

DOE

  • Crude -876k (-1.5mm exp)

  • Cushing +782k

  • Gasoline -1.735mm (+700k exp)

  • Distillates +2.542mm (+500k exp)

A surprise build reported by API overnight was dismissed by the official EIA data showing a 876k barrel draw (breaking a 5 week streak of builds). Gasoline stocks drew down unexpectedly and distillates inventories rose considerably more than expected..

Source: Bloomberg

Overall crude stocks remain near their highest since August 2020.

Source: Bloomberg

As rig counts continue to rise, US crude production remains “disciplined” as prices have risen…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $60.50 ahead of the official data this morning (having found support at $60 and resistance at $61 overnight). It spiked up near $61 very briefly after the print, then fell back…

Finally, on a more optimistic note, OPEC expects the global oil-stockpile surplus that built up during the pandemic to be mostly gone in the next three months, earlier than previously forecast.

The oil market is still playing a guessing game today as to what supply policy OPEC+ will set out at tomorrow’s meeting, but the $64 per barrel Brent price signals that traders expect a cautious approach from the alliance,” said Rystad Energy’s analyst Louise Dickson.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 10:36

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Tokyo Tapers: BOJ Slows April Bond Purchases, Puts Bond Traders On Edge

Tokyo Tapers: BOJ Slows April Bond Purchases, Puts Bond Traders On Edge

For the second session in a row we have seen aggressive Treasury selling in the overnight Asian session …

… which wasn’t much of a surprise following last week’s discussion that the vast majority in Treasury futures selling in 2021 has been during the overnight/Asian session…

… as a result of aggressive dumping by Japanese commercial banks.

And while Morgan Stanley’s rates strategist Matthew Hornbach was optimistic in writing that “we have good reason to believe the selling from Japan won’t last… into April” because the fiscal year in Japan ends on March 31 at which point “liquidation of non-yen bond holdings should stop, if not reverse” overnight the BOJ rained on Hornbach’s parade when in a stark reversal from the recent acceleration of QE by the ECB, the Bank of Japan announced plans to reduce the total amount and frequency of its bond purchases in April from March, following its decision earlier this month to widen the target range of the 10-year government bond yield, a move which everyone (but the BOJ) conceded was implicit tightening.

The BOJ will buy short- to long-dated bonds four times next month, compared with five times in March, and will buy super-long bonds only once, compared with twice in March.

The central bank will buy 450 billion yen of those maturities four times, which will add up to monthly total of 1.8 trillion yen. Until March, they were the tenors the BOJ used to buy the most, with the BOJ buying 420 billion yen of them five times a month. In April, JGBs with one to three years to maturity will become the biggest target of the BOJ’s buying. The BOJ said it reviewed the frequency and amount of bond buying for April taking into account demand for its operations as well as the market’s supply and demand.

Here’s a table comparing the planned purchase amount per operation in April and its frequency with actual total purchases in March.

As a result of the quasi “taper,” the BOJ’s buying of conventional JGBs is expected to fall by about 9% to 5.9 trillion yen ($53.33 billion) in April, compared to 6.45 trillion yen in March.

The move, according to Reuters, underscored the central bank’s resolve to allow yields to fluctuate more around its 0% target, which was one of the key purposes of a policy review it conducted in mid-March.

Of course, it’s one thing for the BOJ to taper in theory and another in practice, which is why moments after the announcement, JGB futures tumbled 15 ticks to 151.00 in after-hour trading as the reduction was far bigger than expected.

“It was a bit of surprise that the BOJ cut its buying in five- to ten-year bonds quite a bit, the maturity in which markets weren’t expecting the BOJ to reduce buying,” said Ryosuke Matsuzaki, market analyst at Mizuho Securities.

“It’s important to balance the need to maintain market functions and control interest rates,” a BOJ official told Reuters, adding the priority was to keep yields stably low as the COVID-19 pandemic weighs on the economy.

The BOJ slightly loosened its grip on long-term interest rates in mid-March and laid the groundwork to taper its huge asset purchases, as part of steps to make its stimulus sustainable enough to weather a prolonged battle to fire up inflation.

Sources told Reuters the BOJ will take a more hands-off approach in bond buying operations from April as it seeks to breathe life back into a market made dormant by its huge presence. Of course, all that means is that if and when yields spike as selling picks up, Kuroda will be right there to pick up the pieces as neither Japan nor any other developed country can risk another bond crash ever again.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/31/2021 – 10:30

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