Biden To Revamp Trump’s TikTok Executive Order Amid Biometric Data Controversy

Biden To Revamp Trump’s TikTok Executive Order Amid Biometric Data Controversy

President Biden will revoke a Trump-era Executive Order on Wednesday which sought to ban the social media app TikTok, and will replace it with a new Executive Order that calls for a broader review of several foreign-controlled applications which could pose a security risk to Americans and their data, according to the New York Times.

Details of the new order are contained in a memo circulated by the Commerce Department and obtained by the NYT. It will address several applications, and will “bolster recent actions the Biden administration has taken to curb the growing influence of Chinese technology companies,” per the report.

It is the first significant step Mr. Biden has taken to address a challenge left for him by President Donald J. Trump, whose administration fought to ban TikTok and force its Chinese-owned parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app. Legal challenges immediately followed and the app is still available as the battle languishes in the courts.

Mr. Biden’s order “will direct the secretary of commerce to use a criteria-based decision framework and rigorous, evidence-based analysis to evaluate and address the risks” posed by foreign-operated applications, according to the memo. “As warranted, the secretary will determine appropriate actions based on a thorough review of the risks posed by foreign adversary connected software applications.” -NYT

News of the revamped EO come days after TikTok quietly rolled out a new US privacy policy which allows the Chinese-owned app to “collect biometric identifiers and biometric information from its users’ content.”

Developing…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/09/2021 – 10:09

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3x7Gohp Tyler Durden

Biden Administration Announces “Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force”

Biden Administration Announces “Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force”

I’m from the Government and I’m here to help. 

The Biden administration appears to have a plan to address supply chain bottlenecks in key industries – not the least of which is the semiconductor industry.

On Tuesday, the administration announced a “supply-chain disruptions task force” (thank God, we’re saved), to identify bottlenecks. It’ll be headed up by Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo with the help of “Mayor Pete” and will focus on areas like homebuilding and construction, in addition to semiconductors, Bloomberg reports

Among the reasons to establish this task force are rising prices and extended delivery times, according to the report. As to the former, we can’t help but wonder if Raimondo’s first “task force” meeting should be held at the offices of the NY Fed.

The group will hold meetings with “stakeholders and supply-chain experts” and will announce its results in the near term. Jared Bernstein, a member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, commented: “There will be more information forthcoming on precise measures that this more near-term initiative will be taking in weeks not months.”

The White House also released a 250 page report on Tuesday with “assessments and an expansive list of recommendations”. The report reads: “For too long, the United States has taken certain features of global markets — especially the fear that companies and capital will flee to wherever wages, taxes and regulations are lowest — as inevitable.”

Among items to be looked at are magnets: 

“The investigation will specifically look at neodymium magnets that are crucial to creating a field for motors to run in perpetuity in everything from electric vehicles to missile guidance systems to wind turbines. China is the largest global producer of those magnets, which are made up of rare earths.”

As well as semiconductors:

“On semiconductors, the Commerce Department will increase information flow between producers and suppliers of chips as well as their end-users. The White House also recommends Congress appropriates at least $50 billion in funding for semiconductor research and production in the U.S. — a key pillar of a broader China competition bill that the Senate may approve on Tuesday.”

Separately, earlier this week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel came out and said that the ongoing global chip shortages was making the economic recovery from the pandemic “more difficult”. She said Germany would spend another 400 million Euros to address the problem.

“We aren’t in pole position but need to catch up,” Merkel commented on Monday, apparently unaware of what the term ‘pole position’ means. 

Back in the U.S., to Gina Raimondo’s credit, she came out and spoke some truth earlier this week when she said: “We know government alone cannot fix this problem. The private sector plays a central role in addressing this crisis.”

Now, let’s see if the Biden administration’s actions run commensurate with Raimondo’s analysis.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/09/2021 – 09:58

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3cMOJ2v Tyler Durden

Ohio Seeks To Declare Google a Public Utility


zumaamericasthirtyone049729

Ohio is suing in an attempt to get Google declared a public utility or common carrier. A new lawsuit filed by Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost asks the Ohio Court of Common Pleas to order stricter regulation of the internet conglomerate, in the name of allegedly preventing discriminatory search results.

Ohio has an interest in ensuring that Google, its users, and the entities whose information Google carries are aware that Google Search is a common carrier under Ohio law. Ohio also has an interest in ensuring that as a common carrier Google Search does not unfairly discriminate against third party websites; that Google carries all responsive search results on an equal basis; and that it provides the public with ready access to organic search results that the Google Search algorithms produce,” states the lawsuit.

Yost’s premise is absurd on many levels—not the least of which being that discrimination is literally the business of search engines. Their whole point is to sift through the vast expanses of internet content and determine which web pages most closely match what consumers are searching for and which offer the highest quality content, all while eschewing spam and scams.

Yost acts as if “organic search results” just happen. But the term simply means results that are the products of algorithms and not paid placement. Google and other search engines still have to develop the algorithms that deliver those non-paid results, and this still requires making decisions that will prioritize certain types of content over others. Without such algorithmic discrimination—if we were left to peruse web pages say, randomly or alphabetically—we would be left with much worse search results. Users would have to spend much more time finding worse and less relevant information.

Yost also argues that Google needs to be more highly regulated because search results sometimes steer Google users to the company’s own products. “Google uses its dominance of internet search to steer Ohioans to Google’s own products—that’s discriminatory and anti-competitive,” he said in a statement.

But there’s nothing illegal or nefarious about platforms—virtual or physical—promoting their own goods, or giving more prominent placement to others’ goods for a fee. Grocery stores give prominent placement to their own brands and to brands that pay for better placement. Newspapers and magazines lay out their own content more prominently than that of advertisers, and also prioritize ad placement based on who pays more. And so on.

This isn’t some uniquely dangerous Google phenomenon, it’s a common business practice. Yet no one’s declaring that grocery stores and magazines are public utilities.

“If someone searches for a flight and Google returns its own presentation of search results to steer the person to Google Flights, the person doesn’t see offers from competitors such as Orbitz and Travelocity,” complains Yost. Not only is this false—Orbitz and Travelocity results are still there, just not at the very top of the page—but it’s also no different than the situation we see in supermarkets. And yet Yost isn’t complaining that Kroger relegating certain cereal brands to a lower shelf somehow renders these brands invisible, nor is he saying that government must start micromanaging cereal product placement.

Besides, if Google’s search results start seeming too biased or irrelevant to consumers, there are other (free) search engines (such as Microsoft’s Bing or the privacy-focused DuckDuckGo) that they can switch to. In other words, there are market solutions to any potential problems here—no massive new regulatory schemes required.

In a statement, Google contended that “Ohioans simply don’t want the government to run Google like a gas or electric company. This lawsuit has no basis in fact or law and we’ll defend ourselves against it in court.”

Unfortunately, the idea that popular search engines and social media companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter should be treated as public utilities/common carriers has been gaining ground among both Democrats and Republicans as their bipartisan crusade against big technology companies heats up.

Conservatives—including Tucker Carlson of Fox News—have glommed onto the idea of regulating tech companies like public utilities to punish them for perceived political bias. But not only does this idea fly in the face of professed GOP attitudes toward free markets, deregulation, free speech, and freedom of association, it also wouldn’t work to solve the supposed problem in question (political bias). Instead, it would simply give more power to whatever partisan regulators were appointed by a particular political administration to punish companies for not biasing things in the way that they prefer.

“The idea that we correct for private corporate political bias by imposing a public utility model is simply foolish,” wrote Cameron Smith in The Hill back in 2017:

Google isn’t a monopoly and it isn’t offering a commodity good, like water or electricity. Treating it like a utility won’t remove political bias, but it will stifle innovation and create a powerful political tool, which can be up for grabs to the highest-paid lobbying firm. … I don’t want a federal regulator of political viewpoint bias for Google any more than I do for Fox News or MSNBC.

Meanwhile, in New York, Senate Democrats recently voted to broaden the state’s antitrust parameters. Under current law, a company is deemed a monopoly if it has a two-thirds share of the market; the new standard would say that cornering less than half of a particular market—40 percent—makes a company a “monopoly.”

It would also change the standard for illegally anti-competitive behavior. Under current state law, it turns on whether business conduct harms consumers. The new measure would deem conduct off-limits if it harms a business’ competitors—a standard that could bar practically any attempts by a popular company to improve products or attract new customers.

“We are essentially punishing success and we are prohibiting all kinds of ordinary pro-competitive conduct,” Lev Ginsburg of The Business Council of New York State told the Wall Street Journal.

The bill—which has yet to clear the New York Assembly—would make it easier for smaller business competitors to sue big companies, said lawyer Lauren Weinstein. She pointed out to the Journal that “certain aspects of Amazon’s business like lowering prices aren’t harmful to the consumer, but they can be pretty harmful to competitors.”

Yes, making products more affordable is now being sold as an evil monopolist behavior, while using government force to give more expensive rivals a leg up has somehow become a progressive position. This is how topsy-turvy the rhetoric around antitrust, competition, and monopoly has become.


FREE MINDS

The trouble with so-called common good originalism. “As far back as I can remember, conservatives have attacked liberal judges for substituting their policy preferences for the text of the Constitution, and for trying to cram the entire progressive agenda onto a handful of provisions (the Commerce Clause, the Necessary and Proper Clause) that were never meant to carry such weight,” writes Reason‘s Damon Root. “But the times are changing. Now, a new conservative faction is aiming to beat the results-oriented liberal judges at their own game.”

Some, like lawyer and Newsweek opinion editor Josh Hammer, have dubbed this common good originalism. “But there is not so much that is recognizably originalist about it,” notes Root. At every turn, it ignores the meaning of the US Constitution and individual rights in favor of expanding government control and power. “In short, Hammer seeks conservative results by reading his preferred conservative agenda (‘our substantive goals’) into the constitutional text,” notes Root. “Hammer may call it ‘originalism,’ but it sure operates more like right-wing living constitutionalism.”


FREE MARKETS

“How Facebook killed blogging.” Timothy B. Lee’s new newsletter has been providing an interesting look at shifting media and technology landscapes. In one recent post, he explores how paywalls—once thought to be a non-starter—have turned out to work for big newspapers. Meanwhile, crowdfunding options (like Substack) have helped out independent and small publishers. But medium-sized news and publishing outlets that rely on advertising are stuck in a sort of purgatory.

In another recent post, Lee looks at “how Facebook killed blogging—and Twitter reinvented it“:

The online news landscape has been transformed in the last 15 years. Today, the blogging community that helped launch my journalism career barely exists. The 2000s-style blogs that still exist are nowhere near as central to the online conversation as they were in the George W. Bush years.

Social media plays a central role in this story. In the early 2010s, big tech platforms—especially Facebook, but also Google, Reddit, and Twitter—became the most common way many readers found news stories. That profoundly shaped the incentives of an emerging class of web-first professional journalists—many of whom were former bloggers.

One big consequence: blogging became less social. It became much less common for writers to recommend and critique one another’s work. Twitter picked up much of the resulting slack; the kind of intellectual discussion that once happened on blogs now largely happens on Twitter.”

Lee’s post mostly explores how this has shaped media. But it’s also interesting to consider how it’s shaped online and/or political discourse overall. As Lee points out:

Most blogs were written primarily for a core group of loyal readers. The goal wasn’t necessarily to maximize the number of clicks on any given post. Rather, bloggers were trying to maximize the number of people who liked the blog enough to come back to the site regularly.

On social sites like Twitter, the incentives changed, from trying to get a loyal audience to trying to go viral on a post-by-post basis. In addition, the segmented communities that existed in the “blogosphere” got all jumbled together, leading to both context collapse (wherein conventions, jokes, memes, and concepts familiar to one community are taken out of context by another) and the sense that relatively small or niche groups of prolific but fringe opinion havers are more influential and numerous than they are. Both have had big ramifications for perceptions of politics and culture more generally.


QUICK HITS

• A new Gallup poll finds record support for same-sex marriage:

• Global herd immunity isn’t happening, says Foreign Affairs magazine. “Rather than die out, the [COVID-19] virus will likely ping-pong back and forth across the globe for years to come.”

• Senate Republicans blocked a Democrat-backed effort to make companies justify pay gaps between employees, ban employers from inquiring about salary history, and “require public education regarding wage discrimination, among other things,” reports Politico.

• Illiberalism from both major parties—not partisanship—is fueling political divides, suggests Jay Caruso at the Washington Examiner.

• “Spermageddon” has been canceled, says a new study.

• How FOSTA made things harder for survival-level sex workers and why decriminalization is the only way out.

• Why the FBI is afraid of bitcoin.

• Former President Donald Trump comments on Nigeria banning Twitter:

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/35acA7H
via IFTTT

Rabo: Is Inflation “Gonna Get High?”

Rabo: Is Inflation “Gonna Get High?”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Is Inflation ‘Gonna Get High?’

US 10-year Treasury yields dipped around 3bp yesterday and, far less relevantly for 99% of us, Bitcoin tumbled nearly that in percentage terms, and gold also dipped – this despite oil spiking, and that despite the US dollar rising.

The trend was related to the headline that talks between President Biden and Republicans over his proposed infrastructure spending bill have collapsed. Recall that on matters of spending in the US, “The President proposes, and Congress disposes”. And that with the Senate 50-50, and Democratic senators Manchin and Sinema opposed to using Budget Reconciliation to ram stimulus through, and to the removal of the Senate filibuster to allow stimulus to proceed on a straight up-down vote, there is no way that this spending can happen – unless something changes. (And if so, what?)

As flagged in the inflation framework we published on Monday, this implies that while inflation pressures will still rise from here near-term because of the ongoing Bullwhip Effect, they will then decline again further out. Indeed, this bullwhip is bearish for the real economy if you caught the surprise drop in German industrial production yesterday, where key auto output fell sharply even as demand spiked: keine semiconductors, nicht war?

In that case, we would again be stuck with the pre-Covid new normal monetary policy shtick: just without the loosey-goosey fiscal policy. We know what economic outcomes that drives – and high inflation isn’t one of them. Imagine the Fed having to keep explaining why it cannot generate higher inflation or lower inequality with low, low rates and high, high QE. The markets just started to that with most of the above price action.

However, there were two other crucial political announcement yesterday in DC too.

  • First, the Senate passed the US Innovation and Competition Act on a bipartisan 68-32 basis. As covered yesterday, this provides billions for new investments of various forms in various fields, includes funding for scientific research, subsidies for semiconductor fabs and robot makers, and overhauls the National Science Foundation. It also codifies that the iron, steel, manufactured products, and construction materials used in federally funded infrastructure projects –which aren’t perhaps going to happen now?– must be made in the US. It is, by any measure, one of the most significant industry and science-related bills in decades. And it is aimed squarely at China.

  • Second, the White House released a 250-page report on its 100-day review of supply chains. The executive summary was long on repetition and short on up-front funding, but made a few things clear. The US is serious about controlling its supply chains to increase resiliency and compete with China. It wants to: develop rare-earths at home; buy components and inputs more from countries it is friendly, rather than antagonistic, with; and to shift production of electric vehicle batteries, cutting-edge semiconductors, and key pharmaceuticals back to the US. The press conference around the release also stated: “First and foremost, American workers. Decades of focusing on labour as a cost to be managed and not an asset to be invested in have weakened our domestic supply chains, undermined wages and union density for workers, and also contributed to companies’ challenges finding skilled talent.”

As also noted in the inflation framework piece from this week, talk –like imports– is cheap. However, given that the only Republican complaint about this strategy is likely to be that it doesn’t go far enough, we can surely see that we have now passed a political Rubicon. Yes, mistakes will surely be made; things might happen in bursts then pause; and it may be two-steps forward, one step back – but supply chains WILL begin to shift, if only due to national security rather than love of labor. They will either flow back to the US or to allies of the US; and capital flows will shift with them. This will take years, or even decades; but the neoliberal global edifice that peaked before the Global Financial Crisis took decades to build too, and it started, among other things, with President Carter deregulating air-traffic control in 1978 and trucking in 1980.

And here we are today with serious people talking about the potential collapse of the liberal world order from what was the strongest starting position in world history, as financial media keep popping champagne corks at wonderful everything is, and global day-traders flip cryptocurrencies linked to porn stars, while waiting for an irascible billionaire to tweet emojis telling them how to make massive instant returns.

Obviously, reversing neoliberalism is going to be inflationary – but it is also going to be a slow burn without fiscal policy to accelerate reticent businesses to act. That’s arguably what matters most going forwards – we have decided to head off for a journey in a new, or rather return, direction. But we haven’t even charged up the (electric) car yet, let alone started out on the road. Once we do get moving, however, expect markets to begin screaming “Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”  

Even the pandemic is related. Yesterday, I noted those advocating Ivermectin (albeit with a Scottish-sounding typo that made it sound like a drug one would get dispensed along with Pebblescillin). On the other hand, in Washington state they are handing out “joints for jabs” to encourage people to get vaccinated, so there is that. As a colleague remarked, soon they won’t have high numbers of new patients, but new numbers of high patients. And this can even link back to monetary and fiscal stimulus, given the combination of extended unemployment benefits and the lack of workers to fill record-highs in opening positions: “I was gonna go to work, but then I got high; I just got a new promotion, but I got high.”

But far more seriously, even Bloomberg now understands that if certain conclusions end up being drawn about virus origins –a decision where politics will play as much of a role as science– then “brace yourself”. Indicatively, Australian PM Morrison will today give a pre-G7 speech pushing again for a transparent investigation into Covid-19 –which helped trigger the initial breakdown of Aussie-Chinese relations– while claiming the risk of conflict involving China is rising as the world faces a period of uncertainty not confronted since the 1930s; and he calls on Western allies to work together as they did during the Cold War. (With its bifurcated global economy.)

So, in short, the move lower in key bond yields is right –for now– because fiscal impetus may be flagging. But those popping champagne corks and thinking ‘New Normal 2.0!’, and “because markets!” might soon need a joint too.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/09/2021 – 09:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3v7Nwc7 Tyler Durden

Ohio Seeks To Declare Google a Public Utility


zumaamericasthirtyone049729

Ohio is suing in an attempt to get Google declared a public utility or common carrier. A new lawsuit filed by Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost asks the Ohio Court of Common Pleas to order stricter regulation of the internet conglomerate, in the name of allegedly preventing discriminatory search results.

Ohio has an interest in ensuring that Google, its users, and the entities whose information Google carries are aware that Google Search is a common carrier under Ohio law. Ohio also has an interest in ensuring that as a common carrier Google Search does not unfairly discriminate against third party websites; that Google carries all responsive search results on an equal basis; and that it provides the public with ready access to organic search results that the Google Search algorithms produce,” states the lawsuit.

Yost’s premise is absurd on many levels—not the least of which being that discrimination is literally the business of search engines. Their whole point is to sift through the vast expanses of internet content and determine which web pages most closely match what consumers are searching for and which offer the highest quality content, all while eschewing spam and scams.

Yost acts as if “organic search results” just happen. But the term simply means results that are the products of algorithms and not paid placement. Google and other search engines still have to develop the algorithms that deliver those non-paid results, and this still requires making decisions that will prioritize certain types of content over others. Without such algorithmic discrimination—if we were left to peruse web pages say, randomly or alphabetically—we would be left with much worse search results. Users would have to spend much more time finding worse and less relevant information.

Yost also argues that Google needs to be more highly regulated because search results sometimes steer Google users to the company’s own products. “Google uses its dominance of internet search to steer Ohioans to Google’s own products—that’s discriminatory and anti-competitive,” he said in a statement.

But there’s nothing illegal or nefarious about platforms—virtual or physical—promoting their own goods, or giving more prominent placement to others’ goods for a fee. Grocery stores give prominent placement to their own brands and to brands that pay for better placement. Newspapers and magazines lay out their own content more prominently than that of advertisers, and also prioritize ad placement based on who pays more. And so on.

This isn’t some uniquely dangerous Google phenomenon, it’s a common business practice. Yet no one’s declaring that grocery stores and magazines are public utilities.

“If someone searches for a flight and Google returns its own presentation of search results to steer the person to Google Flights, the person doesn’t see offers from competitors such as Orbitz and Travelocity,” complains Yost. Not only is this false—Orbitz and Travelocity results are still there, just not at the very top of the page—but it’s also no different than the situation we see in supermarkets. And yet Yost isn’t complaining that Kroger relegating certain cereal brands to a lower shelf somehow renders these brands invisible, nor is he saying that government must start micromanaging cereal product placement.

Besides, if Google’s search results start seeming too biased or irrelevant to consumers, there are other (free) search engines (such as Microsoft’s Bing or the privacy-focused DuckDuckGo) that they can switch to. In other words, there are market solutions to any potential problems here—no massive new regulatory schemes required.

In a statement, Google contended that “Ohioans simply don’t want the government to run Google like a gas or electric company. This lawsuit has no basis in fact or law and we’ll defend ourselves against it in court.”

Unfortunately, the idea that popular search engines and social media companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter should be treated as public utilities/common carriers has been gaining ground among both Democrats and Republicans as their bipartisan crusade against big technology companies heats up.

Conservatives—including Tucker Carlson of Fox News—have glommed onto the idea of regulating tech companies like public utilities to punish them for perceived political bias. But not only does this idea fly in the face of professed GOP attitudes toward free markets, deregulation, free speech, and freedom of association, it also wouldn’t work to solve the supposed problem in question (political bias). Instead, it would simply give more power to whatever partisan regulators were appointed by a particular political administration to punish companies for not biasing things in the way that they prefer.

“The idea that we correct for private corporate political bias by imposing a public utility model is simply foolish,” wrote Cameron Smith in The Hill back in 2017:

Google isn’t a monopoly and it isn’t offering a commodity good, like water or electricity. Treating it like a utility won’t remove political bias, but it will stifle innovation and create a powerful political tool, which can be up for grabs to the highest-paid lobbying firm. … I don’t want a federal regulator of political viewpoint bias for Google any more than I do for Fox News or MSNBC.

Meanwhile, in New York, Senate Democrats recently voted to broaden the state’s antitrust parameters. Under current law, a company is deemed a monopoly if it has a two-thirds share of the market; the new standard would say that cornering less than half of a particular market—40 percent—makes a company a “monopoly.”

It would also change the standard for illegally anti-competitive behavior. Under current state law, it turns on whether business conduct harms consumers. The new measure would deem conduct off-limits if it harms a business’ competitors—a standard that could bar practically any attempts by a popular company to improve products or attract new customers.

“We are essentially punishing success and we are prohibiting all kinds of ordinary pro-competitive conduct,” Lev Ginsburg of The Business Council of New York State told the Wall Street Journal.

The bill—which has yet to clear the New York Assembly—would make it easier for smaller business competitors to sue big companies, said lawyer Lauren Weinstein. She pointed out to the Journal that “certain aspects of Amazon’s business like lowering prices aren’t harmful to the consumer, but they can be pretty harmful to competitors.”

Yes, making products more affordable is now being sold as an evil monopolist behavior, while using government force to give more expensive rivals a leg up has somehow become a progressive position. This is how topsy-turvy the rhetoric around antitrust, competition, and monopoly has become.


FREE MINDS

The trouble with so-called common good originalism. “As far back as I can remember, conservatives have attacked liberal judges for substituting their policy preferences for the text of the Constitution, and for trying to cram the entire progressive agenda onto a handful of provisions (the Commerce Clause, the Necessary and Proper Clause) that were never meant to carry such weight,” writes Reason‘s Damon Root. “But the times are changing. Now, a new conservative faction is aiming to beat the results-oriented liberal judges at their own game.”

Some, like lawyer and Newsweek opinion editor Josh Hammer, have dubbed this common good originalism. “But there is not so much that is recognizably originalist about it,” notes Root. At every turn, it ignores the meaning of the US Constitution and individual rights in favor of expanding government control and power. “In short, Hammer seeks conservative results by reading his preferred conservative agenda (‘our substantive goals’) into the constitutional text,” notes Root. “Hammer may call it ‘originalism,’ but it sure operates more like right-wing living constitutionalism.”


FREE MARKETS

“How Facebook killed blogging.” Timothy B. Lee’s new newsletter has been providing an interesting look at shifting media and technology landscapes. In one recent post, he explores how paywalls—once thought to be a non-starter—have turned out to work for big newspapers. Meanwhile, crowdfunding options (like Substack) have helped out independent and small publishers. But medium-sized news and publishing outlets that rely on advertising are stuck in a sort of purgatory.

In another recent post, Lee looks at “how Facebook killed blogging—and Twitter reinvented it“:

The online news landscape has been transformed in the last 15 years. Today, the blogging community that helped launch my journalism career barely exists. The 2000s-style blogs that still exist are nowhere near as central to the online conversation as they were in the George W. Bush years.

Social media plays a central role in this story. In the early 2010s, big tech platforms—especially Facebook, but also Google, Reddit, and Twitter—became the most common way many readers found news stories. That profoundly shaped the incentives of an emerging class of web-first professional journalists—many of whom were former bloggers.

One big consequence: blogging became less social. It became much less common for writers to recommend and critique one another’s work. Twitter picked up much of the resulting slack; the kind of intellectual discussion that once happened on blogs now largely happens on Twitter.”

Lee’s post mostly explores how this has shaped media. But it’s also interesting to consider how it’s shaped online and/or political discourse overall. As Lee points out:

Most blogs were written primarily for a core group of loyal readers. The goal wasn’t necessarily to maximize the number of clicks on any given post. Rather, bloggers were trying to maximize the number of people who liked the blog enough to come back to the site regularly.

On social sites like Twitter, the incentives changed, from trying to get a loyal audience to trying to go viral on a post-by-post basis. In addition, the segmented communities that existed in the “blogosphere” got all jumbled together, leading to both context collapse (wherein conventions, jokes, memes, and concepts familiar to one community are taken out of context by another) and the sense that relatively small or niche groups of prolific but fringe opinion havers are more influential and numerous than they are. Both have had big ramifications for perceptions of politics and culture more generally.


QUICK HITS

• A new Gallup poll finds record support for same-sex marriage:

• Global herd immunity isn’t happening, says Foreign Affairs magazine. “Rather than die out, the [COVID-19] virus will likely ping-pong back and forth across the globe for years to come.”

• Senate Republicans blocked a Democrat-backed effort to make companies justify pay gaps between employees, ban employers from inquiring about salary history, and “require public education regarding wage discrimination, among other things,” reports Politico.

• Illiberalism from both major parties—not partisanship—is fueling political divides, suggests Jay Caruso at the Washington Examiner.

• “Spermageddon” has been canceled, says a new study.

• How FOSTA made things harder for survival-level sex workers and why decriminalization is the only way out.

• Why the FBI is afraid of bitcoin.

• Former President Donald Trump comments on Nigeria banning Twitter:

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/35acA7H
via IFTTT

How A Fastly Customer “Triggered” Yesterday’s “Broad And Severe” Global Internet Outage

How A Fastly Customer “Triggered” Yesterday’s “Broad And Severe” Global Internet Outage

Fastly, a major content delivery network, triggered a major internet blackout on Tuesday morning has blamed a software bug. 

We first noticed the problem a little after 0600 ET Tuesday when countless websites, including Reddit, Financial Times, PayPal, and other websites, went down. 

“We experienced a global outage due to an undiscovered software bug that surfaced on June 8 when it was triggered by a valid customer configuration change,” Nick Rockwell, Fastly’s senior vice president of engineering and infrastructure, wrote in a blog post late Tuesday. 

Rockwell said, “the outage was broad and severe, and we’re truly sorry for the impact to our customers and everyone who relies on them.” He said the company “detected the disruption within one minute, then identified and isolated the cause, and disabled the configuration,” adding that “within 49 minutes, 95% of our network was operating as normal.” 

“Even though there were specific conditions that triggered this outage, we should have anticipated it,” Rockwell said.

The company operates servers at strategic points worldwide to support customers moving and storing content.

But when a customer switched their settings, they had accidentally exposed a bug in a software update issued in May, which triggered widespread outages. 

Here’s a timeline of yesterday’s disruption (all times are in UTC): 

09:47 Initial onset of global disruption

09:48 Global disruption identified by Fastly monitoring

09:58 Status post is published

10:27 Fastly Engineering identified the customer configuration

10:36 Impacted services began to recover

11:00 Majority of services recovered

12:35 Incident mitigated

12:44 Status post resolved

17:25 Bug fix deployment began

We noted yesterday that incidents like this underline the fragility of the internet and how the global internet is dependent on a handful of companies like Fastly and Cloudflare for vital infrastructure. On the flip side, the incident also highlights how quickly an outrage of this magnitude can be resolved. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/09/2021 – 09:29

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3v88t6E Tyler Durden

Two Pins Threatening Multiple Asset Bubbles, Part 2

Two Pins Threatening Multiple Asset Bubbles, Part 2

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Part One of this article showed how growing wealth inequality might pressure the Fed to taper QE and/or raise interest rates. Given the indirect market liquidity resulting from the Fed’s stimulus, a reduction is likely a headwind for many asset prices.

In this follow up we discuss another proverbial needle looking for asset bubbles; Financial Stability.

Financial “Stability” Blindness

Fed members are not as open about their desire for higher asset prices as general price inflation. Instead, they often cloak support for rising asset prices with the term financial stability. Based on many Fed statements, financial conditions are stable when equity prices are rising and unstable when falling.

The reality is financial stability, as it relates to markets, is based on valuations and liquidity, not the direction of prices. Markets are most stable when their prices fairly reflect fundamental conditions. As they stray from fair value, prices inherently become more unstable.

Today’s extremely high equity valuations and historically tight credit spreads are signs of bubbles. Unfortunately, most often, such periods are followed by market instability. Not only do price corrections roil investors, but they also hamper financial conditions across the economy.

The reason the Fed promotes higher asset prices is the so-called trickle-down effect. Effectively, they believe rising asset prices benefit economic activity and the welfare of the nation’s citizens. As we will discuss, such a policy is flawed. The Fed wants to boost economic growth with rising asset prices. But to do so today, they must ignore asset bubbles that are forming from excessive monetary policy. The cartoon below is a somewhat accurate portrayal of the flaws of trickle-down policies.

On May 5, 2021, Fed President Williams stated: “I don’t see those higher asset valuations, say, in the stock market or the housing market as being a significant risk for financial stability right now,”

It’s really hard to spot bubbles with any confidence before they burst.”- Neel Kashkari Minneapolis Fed

Who Benefits From Trickle Down “Financial Stability”?

In addition to eventual financial instability resulting from asset bubbles, the other problem is they do not benefit all citizens equally. As shown below, the share of equity holdings by the top 1% has grown significantly in the last 20 years. Moreover, the last 20 years mark extended periods of excessive monetary stimulus.  

The lowest income class has average expenditures of nearly $38,000 versus income after taxes of $25,000. This figure is skewed by a few wealthier people with low incomes and high savings. However, a large majority of households in this bucket must spend every dime they make. For the majority, this leaves them with near-zero to save and invest.

The highest income class only consumes 53% of their income on average. Accordingly, they are left with almost half of their income to save and invest.

QE and historically low-interest rates greatly benefit asset prices. As a result, the wealthier benefit much more from rising asset prices than the poor. The graph below, courtesy of Lohman Econometrics, shows the correlation between global central bank assets and global asset values.

As we stated in part one, politicians wanting to win over voters will likely have to deal with the wealth inequality problem. One possible way for them to scapegoat the issue is to question the Fed on their financial stability policy.

Defining Excessive Policy

Investors should never accept a rate of interest below the rate of inflation. Such a condition called negative real yields is often due to an overly aggressive central bank.

The yellow shading in the graph below highlights negative real yields have been the norm for the better part of the last 15+ years. The chart also shows the percentage of wealth owned by the top 10% (green dotted line) accelerated during the negative real yield era. Their gains came at the expense of the bottom 90% (blue dotted line).

Rising House Prices

The Fed is purchasing $40 billion in mortgages a month. As a result, mortgage rates and spreads are at or near historic lows. The benefit of lower mortgage rates is greater affordability for buyers. While that helps everyone, low rates also drive up home prices.  Per the Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home Price Index, home prices are up nearly 17% since the Fed started buying mortgages in early 2020.

As an aside, higher prices often result in higher rent payments. As shown below, we are just starting to see rent prices pick up following the surge in home prices.

Who benefits more from rising home prices, the wealthy or the poor? Who tends to rent more, the wealthy or the poor? Fed policy directly supports the housing market, and its benefits are overwhelmingly bestowed upon the wealthy.

Jerome Powell acknowledged the surge in home prices in his latest press conference but quickly refuted the blame. Oddly, he had no intelligent answer for why the Fed is buying $40 billion worth of mortgages monthly and driving mortgage rates lower, ergo prices higher.   

Tapering MBS QE

The pressure on the Fed to decrease their support of the mortgage market is heating up. Even the Fed seems to recognize it.

Boston Fed President Rosengren said, “the mortgage market probably doesn’t need as much support now.” Similar to comments from Dallas Fed President Kaplan, it seems Rosengren is indirectly pushing for a tapering of MBS-QE.

There is little doubt, more pressure on the Fed will arise from the media and politicians if home prices continue to soar. We would not be surprised if the Fed begins to taper MBS purchases as early as the June 15-16, 2021 FOMC meeting.

A Ray of Honesty at the Fed

The potential sources of financial instability are soaring real estate valuations and broad asset market valuations. On May 6, 2021, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, the board’s financial stability committee head, spoke with brutal honesty about financial markets and financial stability. To wit:

“Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising.”

“The combination of stretched valuation with very high levels of corporate indebtedness bear watching because of the potential to amplify the effects of a re-pricing event.”

In no uncertain words, Brainard cautions financial stability is at risk. Since her comments, there has been nary a whisper from Fed members on financial stability.

Summary- The View from the Fed

The Fed did not understand the escalating level of financial instability leading to the Great Depression, Dot-Com bust (2000), Financial Crisis (2008), and other more minor financial crises. Do you think they will this time?

Unlike those periods, rising wealth inequality resulting from surging asset prices is making front-page news. The media is picking up on inequality which will undoubtedly lead politicians to act. The Fed may likely be in their sightlines. As discussed in Part One, rising wealth inequality, driven by inflation and/or “financial stability,” are potential needles waiting to pop the Fed-driven asset bubbles.

We end with a quote from Stanley Druckenmiller- “I don’t think there’s been any greater engine of inequality than the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States the last 11 years.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/09/2021 – 09:11

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The Pandemic Is a Case for Policy Humility


krtphotoslive889441

One thing that’s more clear than ever after a year of pandemic governance is that politicians and policymakers know less than they think they do, in part because they have less power over individual lives and choices than they assume. 

A brief case study: When Texas’ Republican Gov. Greg Abbott lifted the state’s mask mandate and ended all capacity limits at the beginning of March, becoming the first state to do so, his decision was greeted by a flood of high-profile criticism from left-leaning lawmakers and policymakers. 

California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has presided over the nation’s most restrictive coronavirus policy regime, called the move “absolutely reckless.” Andy Slavitt, President Joe Biden’s senior advisor for COVID response, said, “We think it’s a mistake to lift the mask mandates too early. Masks are saving a lot of lives.” Biden himself called the move “Neanderthal thinking.” And Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky insisted, “Now is not the time to relax the critical safeguards.” 

These are people whose job is to shape policy at the highest levels of government, and they were united in their belief that Abbott’s move was dangerous. They were certain that without mandates set down from above, Texas was in for a world of hurt. Yet their dire warnings didn’t pan out. 

A little more than three weeks after Abbott lifted the mandates—about the time when you would expect to see an uptick in COVID cases if the mandate was genuinely critical to preventing transmission—Texas reported its lowest case rate in a year, and a further reduction in hospitalizations. There’s been no sustained uptick since. 

As Dylan Scott wrote in Vox last week, compared with states like California and New York, which have maintained much more restrictive policy regimes, Texas has performed admirably well. Indeed, when economists from Bentley University and San Diego State University recently looked at Abbott’s decision, they found “no evidence that the Texas reopening affected the rate of new COVID-19 cases during the five weeks following the reopening.” As it turned out, those critical safeguards weren’t so critical. 

There’s a similar story in Florida, another big state that ditched many coronavirus restrictions and embraced the reopening ethos, often to predictions of death and doom that never came to pass. Like Texas, Florida was seen as “reckless.” California and New York were not. 

You might assume that these two very different approaches would produce two very different results. Yet as Scott writes, “looking at the case and death numbers since the coronavirus pandemic began, it’s not obvious which states were cautious and which were not.”  

Much about the pandemic remains unknown or in dispute, and researchers and policymakers will undoubtedly spend the coming years arguing about what we know and what we don’t, what worked and what didn’t. 

Yet if there is a single, one-sentence takeaway from the radical experiments in public-health governance America has seen over the past year and change, it is this: Aside from the vaccines, it’s not obvious what worked. And it is distinctly possible that much of what was done in the name of protecting people from the coronavirus made little or no impact at all. 

One reason why it’s so hard to know which interventions, if any, made a difference is the nature of the virus itself. COVID spread differently in different areas, and during different time periods. Similarly, policy responses varied from place to place and time to time, even within states, making it genuinely difficult to isolate the effects of any specific policy.  

And it may simply be that many policies—even those presumed to have substantial impacts, like Abbott’s early bid at reopening—had little effect on anyone’s behavior at all. As the authors of the Texas study note, not only did Abbott’s decision have little effect on viral transmission, it also had essentially no effect on mobility or foot traffic in businesses, or on employment. The policy had changed—but behaviors didn’t. The residents of Texas simply went on with their lives. 

Policymakers and political officials might set rules or issue guidelines, but they don’t actually determine individual behaviors like masking, gathering with others, or going out for a meal. As The Atlantic‘s Derek Thompson recently wrote in a perceptive piece on Texas’ reopening, people “make these decisions for themselves, based on some combination of local norms, political orientation, and personal risk tolerance that resists quick reversals, no matter what public health elites say.” It’s not just that there are limits on what policymakers can know. There are also limits on what policy can do—limits that policymakers often don’t acknowledge. 

It would be tempting to look at all of this and resort to a kind of nihilism—to conclude that nothing works, that governance is irrelevant or inconsequential, that policymakers can have no impact at all. But that would be to commit the same error committed by Biden’s COVID advisors and by the CDC, which is the error of certainty.

This is not a lesson in policy futility so much as a lesson in policy humility—both about what we can know about policy, especially in an unprecedented situation like a pandemic, and about what even the most sweeping emergency policies can accomplish. 

Yet that sort of humility about the limits of policy was sorely lacking last year, and it continues to be in short supply as the pandemic fades inside the United States. 

That lack of humility is why Anthony Fauci, the nation’s chief infectious disease scientist and frontperson for the government’s pandemic message, repeatedly lied to the public about key issues, such as herd immunity and masking. It’s why experts who should have known better convened around an all too certain consensus that the coronavirus could not possibly have come from a Chinese lab. And it’s why Newsom continues to keep California in a state of emergency that dramatically enhances his own power, despite the pandemic’s ebb and little evidence that the restrictions he has championed remain effective or necessary. 

A more humble approach to policy might have been more cautious about sweeping restrictions on business and social activity, or at least more apt to change course as new information—about, say, schools or outdoor transmission—emerged. A more humble approach to policy would have placed more emphasis on guidelines intended to aid individual risk assessments rather than broad-based one-size-fits all rules, understanding that not even the most well informed policy maker has all the answers. And a more humble approach to the post-pandemic world would be patiently seeking to learn from the last year, rather than rushing to use the crisis as a justification for unrelated permanent policy changes

Which, of course, is the opposite of what we got and what we are going to keep getting. For among the things that policy makers don’t know and have consistently refused to let themselves learn is how little they know.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2Tcax0v
via IFTTT

The Pandemic Is a Case for Policy Humility


krtphotoslive889441

One thing that’s more clear than ever after a year of pandemic governance is that politicians and policymakers know less than they think they do, in part because they have less power over individual lives and choices than they assume. 

A brief case study: When Texas’ Republican Gov. Greg Abbott lifted the state’s mask mandate and ended all capacity limits at the beginning of March, becoming the first state to do so, his decision was greeted by a flood of high-profile criticism from left-leaning lawmakers and policymakers. 

California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has presided over the nation’s most restrictive coronavirus policy regime, called the move “absolutely reckless.” Andy Slavitt, President Joe Biden’s senior advisor for COVID response, said, “We think it’s a mistake to lift the mask mandates too early. Masks are saving a lot of lives.” Biden himself called the move “Neanderthal thinking.” And Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky insisted, “Now is not the time to relax the critical safeguards.” 

These are people whose job is to shape policy at the highest levels of government, and they were united in their belief that Abbott’s move was dangerous. They were certain that without mandates set down from above, Texas was in for a world of hurt. Yet their dire warnings didn’t pan out. 

A little more than three weeks after Abbott lifted the mandates—about the time when you would expect to see an uptick in COVID cases if the mandate was genuinely critical to preventing transmission—Texas reported its lowest case rate in a year, and a further reduction in hospitalizations. There’s been no sustained uptick since. 

As Dylan Scott wrote in Vox last week, compared with states like California and New York, which have maintained much more restrictive policy regimes, Texas has performed admirably well. Indeed, when economists from Bentley University and San Diego State University recently looked at Abbott’s decision, they found “no evidence that the Texas reopening affected the rate of new COVID-19 cases during the five weeks following the reopening.” As it turned out, those critical safeguards weren’t so critical. 

There’s a similar story in Florida, another big state that ditched many coronavirus restrictions and embraced the reopening ethos, often to predictions of death and doom that never came to pass. Like Texas, Florida was seen as “reckless.” California and New York were not. 

You might assume that these two very different approaches would produce two very different results. Yet as Scott writes, “looking at the case and death numbers since the coronavirus pandemic began, it’s not obvious which states were cautious and which were not.”  

Much about the pandemic remains unknown or in dispute, and researchers and policymakers will undoubtedly spend the coming years arguing about what we know and what we don’t, what worked and what didn’t. 

Yet if there is a single, one-sentence takeaway from the radical experiments in public-health governance America has seen over the past year and change, it is this: Aside from the vaccines, it’s not obvious what worked. And it is distinctly possible that much of what was done in the name of protecting people from the coronavirus made little or no impact at all. 

One reason why it’s so hard to know which interventions, if any, made a difference is the nature of the virus itself. COVID spread differently in different areas, and during different time periods. Similarly, policy responses varied from place to place and time to time, even within states, making it genuinely difficult to isolate the effects of any specific policy.  

And it may simply be that many policies—even those presumed to have substantial impacts, like Abbott’s early bid at reopening—had little effect on anyone’s behavior at all. As the authors of the Texas study note, not only did Abbott’s decision have little effect on viral transmission, it also had essentially no effect on mobility or foot traffic in businesses, or on employment. The policy had changed—but behaviors didn’t. The residents of Texas simply went on with their lives. 

Policymakers and political officials might set rules or issue guidelines, but they don’t actually determine individual behaviors like masking, gathering with others, or going out for a meal. As The Atlantic‘s Derek Thompson recently wrote in a perceptive piece on Texas’ reopening, people “make these decisions for themselves, based on some combination of local norms, political orientation, and personal risk tolerance that resists quick reversals, no matter what public health elites say.” It’s not just that there are limits on what policymakers can know. There are also limits on what policy can do—limits that policymakers often don’t acknowledge. 

It would be tempting to look at all of this and resort to a kind of nihilism—to conclude that nothing works, that governance is irrelevant or inconsequential, that policymakers can have no impact at all. But that would be to commit the same error committed by Biden’s COVID advisors and by the CDC, which is the error of certainty.

This is not a lesson in policy futility so much as a lesson in policy humility—both about what we can know about policy, especially in an unprecedented situation like a pandemic, and about what even the most sweeping emergency policies can accomplish. 

Yet that sort of humility about the limits of policy was sorely lacking last year, and it continues to be in short supply as the pandemic fades inside the United States. 

That lack of humility is why Anthony Fauci, the nation’s chief infectious disease scientist and frontperson for the government’s pandemic message, repeatedly lied to the public about key issues, such as herd immunity and masking. It’s why experts who should have known better convened around an all too certain consensus that the coronavirus could not possibly have come from a Chinese lab. And it’s why Newsom continues to keep California in a state of emergency that dramatically enhances his own power, despite the pandemic’s ebb and little evidence that the restrictions he has championed remain effective or necessary. 

A more humble approach to policy might have been more cautious about sweeping restrictions on business and social activity, or at least more apt to change course as new information—about, say, schools or outdoor transmission—emerged. A more humble approach to policy would have placed more emphasis on guidelines intended to aid individual risk assessments rather than broad-based one-size-fits all rules, understanding that not even the most well informed policy maker has all the answers. And a more humble approach to the post-pandemic world would be patiently seeking to learn from the last year, rather than rushing to use the crisis as a justification for unrelated permanent policy changes

Which, of course, is the opposite of what we got and what we are going to keep getting. For among the things that policy makers don’t know and have consistently refused to let themselves learn is how little they know.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2Tcax0v
via IFTTT

Crypto Rebounds As El Salvador Passes Bill To Make Bitcoin Legal Tender

Crypto Rebounds As El Salvador Passes Bill To Make Bitcoin Legal Tender

After a tempestuous day where once again the death of crypto was heralded by many, this morning has seen buyers return amid an upsized MSTR bond deal (amid very heavy demand) and El Salvador passing a bill (which we previewed here) to become the first nation to make bitcoin legal tender.

The president of El Salvador’s bill to make Bitcoin legal tender in El Salvador passed congress with a supermajority just before 6 am UTC.

As CoinTelegraph’s Brian Quarmby reports, in a Twitter Spaces conversation that began just after 5 am UTC with 22,000 listeners, President Nayib Bukele said he would sign off on the historic law later tonight or first thing tomorrow.

“It goes into effect immediately,” he said, clarifying the government would allow 90 days for the infrastructure to be put into place.

He said that accepting Bitcoin would be mandatory for all businesses.

“They have to take it by law,” he said of merchants in the country.

“If you go to Mexico they have to take your pesos.”

“In the case of El Salvador Bitcoin is going to be legal tender just as the US Dollar.”

He revealed that he will be meeting with the International Monetary Fund on Thursday.

The government will also be releasing an official Bitcoin wallet (however, this will not be mandatory).

The government intends to hold $150 million equivalent of Bitcoin in a trust fund in its development bank to assume the risks of merchants.

Permanent residency will be available for those who invest 3 BTC in El Salvador.

And having bounced off $31,000, Bitcoin is now back above $35,000 – having erased all of yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum is rallying but notably less than bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

The other positive catalyst was a significantly upsized MSTR bond deal ($500 million) which will be used to acquire more bitcoin…

Most importantly, and perhaps reflecting on the institutional interest in ‘buying the dip’, is the fact that MSTR saw $1.6 billion in offers for the deal.

Finally, we note that amid all the talk of regulatory crackdowns, the SEC’s Hester Pierce has once again urged regulators to take a step back from attempting to overregulate the crypto space.

Speaking to Financial Times, Peirce, affectionately dubbed “Crypto Mom” due to her positive stance on cryptocurrencies, argued against the need for strict regulatory policies.

According to Peirce, regulators by nature often have a knee-jerk reaction to emerging market spaces, often at the expense of innovation.

The SEC commissioner warned that pursuing stricter regulatory policies eliminates the ability of market participants to carry out peer-to-peer transactions. Rather than emphasizing government regulations, Peirce advocates for industry-led regulatory activities.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/09/2021 – 08:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2TdUiQm Tyler Durden