The Campaign Against ‘Extremism’ Looks Like an Attack on Speech


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Some Facebook users have recently received warnings about “extremism” and offers of help for those with acquaintances attracted to “extremist” ideas. It’s part of an international push to discourage and restrict communications considered radical and hateful. While often couched in concern about the potential for violence, this effort looks increasingly like a scheme to narrow the boundaries of acceptable discussion and muzzle speech that makes the powers-that-be uncomfortable.

“Are you concerned that someone you know is becoming an extremist?” asks one of the Facebook messages. “We care about preventing extremism on Facebook. Others in your situation have received confidential support.”

Taken by itself, the messages are somewhat creepy indications that the tech giant doesn’t approve of a subset of its users’ communications, politics, and associates. But the messages—which send those who click through to the company’s Redirect Initiative to “combat violent extremism and dangerous organizations by redirecting hate and violence-related search terms towards resources, education, and outreach groups that can help”—is part of a much larger international program involving dozens of governments and tech firms.

“One year ago we committed to the Christchurch Call to Action in response to the March 15, 2019 attack in Christchurch, New Zealand,” Facebook noted in May 2020. “Since then, our companies have continued our shared work to prevent terrorists and violent extremists from abusing digital platforms.”

Cofounded by the governments of France and New Zealand, the Christchurch Call to Action promotes “collective, voluntary commitments from Governments and online service providers intended to address the issue of terrorist and violent extremist content online and to prevent the abuse of the internet as occurred in and after the Christchurch attacks.” It has since been joined by governments from Australia to India to the United Kingdom, and by companies including Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Twitter.

The U.S. joined the Christchurch Call in May, despite earlier concerns about threats to free speech posed by state action against ill-defined “extremism.” At almost the same moment, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a bulletin warning about the potential dangers of messaging from domestic terrorists. “Social media and online forums are increasingly exploited by these actors to influence and spread violent extremist narratives and activity,” it cautioned

The RAND Corporation, the well-connected granddaddy of think tanks, recently joined in with an effort “to gather and then analyze first-hand accounts of extremist radicalization and deradicalization.” Researchers added that “the interview protocol was designed to engage all participants in talking about radicalization and its prevention at four levels—individual, relational, institutional, and societal.”

Like Facebook, but unlike DHS and Christchurch Call, RAND didn’t entirely confine its concerns to extremism of the violent variety. It’s eyebrow-raising enough when private organizations creep in terms of their concerns from “violent extremism” to “extremism” to “radicalization,” but it becomes dangerous when governments, with the power of law backed by police and prisons, do the same—and that’s exactly what is happening.

“If your intent is to incite hatred against them, then potentially,” New Zealand’s Justice Minister Kris Faafoi answered last month when asked if a pending hate speech bill would criminalize criticism of boomers by millennials. “But again, it’s up to the police and what you say.”

Commentators point out that the proposal would even punish criticism of “political opinion.”

New Zealand’s government, let’s remember, is one of the cofounders of the Christchurch Call which inspired Facebook’s extremism warnings. The proposed legislation—including hefty fines and prison terms for speech offenders—is crafted to implement the Call’s intent.

America’s strong traditions of respect for speech, embodied in the First Amendment, should prevent any similar laws against vigorous, vitriolic, or even overtly hateful speech, so long as they stop short of incitement to violence. But that doesn’t mean that powerful people wouldn’t very much like to narrow the parameters of acceptable speech far more than the Constitution might allow.

In January, former CIA director John Brennan assured an MSNBC interviewer that the Biden administration is focusing on “what looks very similar to insurgency movements that we’ve seen overseas,” consisting of “an unholy alliance” of “religious extremists, authoritarians, fascists, bigots, racists, Nativists, even libertarians.”

“Notably, Brennan did not distinguish between those who use extreme tactics and those with whom he disagrees politically,” observed Max Abrahms, a professor of public policy at Northeastern University and expert on political violence. “For Brennan, both are enemies worthy not only of contempt, but action or at least government scrutiny.”

Fortunately, Brennan no longer holds a government job. But he remains a high-profile media commentator and security adviser with continuing ties to those who do wield power. It’s not difficult to believe that his sentiments are more widely shared at a time when the U.S. government endorses the Christchurch Call’s plan for curbs on speech and issues terrorism advisories about extremism.

And private companies aren’t constrained by the First Amendment. Facebook and other companies have every right to interpret “extremism” as they wish, purge it from their platforms, and ostracize or refer for reeducation its advocates. Politicians limited in their abilities by constitutional constraints or political opposition may well see their preferences about the acceptable boundaries of speech enforced by private parties that share their prejudices and have signed on to the same mission.

The Christchurch Call and related efforts against extremism have their roots in efforts to battle violence, not speech. Most people would agree that the majority of “extremist” ideas targeted so far are vile even when not explicitly dangerous. But already we’re seeing one of the founders of the Christchurch Call suggesting that criticism of political opinion, or of one generation by members of another, might deserve criminal penalties. Concerns about violence are being replaced by warnings against disapproved speech itself.

“Extremism,” it turns out, is in the eye of the beholder. And too many campaigners against extremism seem eager to turn their efforts into restrictions not just on what people do with their ideas, but also on the range of ideas they are allowed to voice.

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Rabo: The Reflation Trade Is Being Erased By The Market

Rabo: The Reflation Trade Is Being Erased By The Market

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Eraser

10-year US Treasury yields are back at 1.35% again and 30-years below 2%, both the lowest since February; the US Dollar is up, not down; US equities are (finally) down, not up; oil is down sharply not up; and overall, it looks like the reflation trade is being erased by the market – at least for now.

The RBA certainly kept things steady yesterday, even with the expected refusal to roll the benchmark bond for its 3-year yield curve control backing the view rates will rise….by April 2024. Only the RBNZ is still taken as moving closer to near-term hiking, and while the 2-year yield is up from below zero in September 2020 to 0.82%, the 10-year yield is 1.78% vs. 1.93% in March, and even NZD is around 0.70 when it was as high as 0.7436 in late February.

Tellingly, a recent Politico article stresses “Workers are reaping benefits in the post-Covid economy. But their power may not last”. (Which is why the UK yesterday also saw a survey that 67% of those under 35 want a socialist government, mostly in reaction to high house prices and rents: and this is not changing with age any more than high house prices and rents are.)

Of course, worker power can shift if the White House acts for full employment – but as we have stressed, this also requires major moves on supply chains. That is both easy to say and hard to deliver. Which reminds me of the eminently-forgettable 1996 movie ‘Eraser’ starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. Teutonic Arnie always pronounces his Ts as Ds, yet somehow we still got the line: “We have to go to Adlanda to get the dayda from the compuda.” That is also easy to say and hard to deliver. Importantly, in today’s context this phrase suggests supply chains *will* shift.

China’s State Council has announced it will improve regulations and laws regarding data security and cross-border data flow, while increasing supervision for overseas listings of Chinese firms. As Bloomberg puts it bluntly: “Didi’s Fiasco Shows Beijing Wants No More US IPOs” – which is something US China hawks have been pushing for. The data-security issue will also set up a ‘lawfare’ clash of US, EU, and Chinese regulatory requirements; and Bloomberg also notes “Hong Kong Gets Its Great Firewall, One Brick at a Time”. At the same time, the Global Times lauds a new plan to launch 10,000 new SMEs so by 2025 China will develop “little giant” enterprises specializing in niche sectors, and 1,000 champions in a single industry; the focus is “on breakthroughs in specific and critical sectors and supply chains where the country may be vulnerable amid a spiralling technology war”. This logically leads to either decoupling or Chinese, not Western, firms controlling said critical sectors. Which sound like national security to many.

Staying on dayda, compuda, and hi-tech weapons, Amazon is happily singing ‘Yub Nub’, or “Yup, ‘nuf”(?), now the return of the JEDI – the Pentagon’s cloud computing plan – includes them as well as Microsoft. Because Amazon is obviously short a few billion bucks: and who wouldn’t want the same firm that chooses which global suppliers you get to see on your screen; delivers your goods; owns the newspaper you read; in which the reviews of the TV shows, and soon movies, it produces are written; and which is lobbying to avoid paying more tax; to not also own key parts of the national defense infrastructure?

Contrast with the approach in Beijing.

Elsewhere, the White House has stated “We will take action” on Russian ransomware criminal actors if Russia won’t. What this might be and when is not clear – more so given the US is asking Russia for help with finding a Central Asian military base following its Afghan retreat.

Meanwhile, Germany has arrested the owner of a think tank on allegations of spying for China – to which the Twitter reactions included “Now do the US”; the Estonian consul in St Petersburg has been detained for receiving classified dada; Belarus has jailed the presidential opposition candidate for 14 years, and is telling the EU it “will not stop a migrant border surge”; and Lithuania is pushing for an EU summit with China to replace the dual German-Franco and ‘16+1’ approaches, which would be a lot less Beijing friendly than the “auto” pilot we get from Berlin.

In short, while reflation is being erased, so is much of the existing geopolitical order on which low-flation was predicated. But what comes next, and when, is even less clear than the rate-hike horizon. If seen, change will start with the geopolitical, but then broader supply chain moves will flow from there.

China’s course appears to be set; what the US will do about it ahead is uncertain; what the EU *can* jointly do even more so, and obviously depends on the next German and French election; Japan, Australia, and India are obviously moving closer to the US.  And yet further muddying the waters for those drawing easy ‘East vs. West’ conclusions is an analysis of Russia’s latest National Security Strategy (NSS) from 2 July from a Russian international relations academic.

The NSS obviously excoriates the West, and refuses to use the term Indo-Pacific, sticking with Asia-Pacific. Notably, however, relations with India and China are combined in one paragraph, while in the 2009 and 2015 NSS, they were separate, with China preceding India; this suggests balancing relations with China is becoming increasingly important for Moscow. Indeed, there is no mention of a ‘new era‘ (which China has used in bilateral documents since 2019), and relations with China are no longer characterized as a “key factor in maintaining global and regional stability,” as in both 2009 and 2015. The NSS also flags the vulnerability of Russian information resources, including critical infrastructure, due to the use of foreign technology and equipment – and that apparently means *all* foreigners. Let’s see what Russia ultimately decides on 5G, etc.

This all sounds like the kind of geopolitical world in which a 1980’s-era muscular Arnie would thrive – just without the whole Reaganomics thing, thanks very much. Or at least he would if the movie studios weren’t owned by global firms who would rather just erase this troublesome perspective.

Anyway, back to another day of dayda on my compuda. And waiting for the Fed minutes, which will also only speak to only a fraction of the actual underlying global narrative.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/07/2021 – 10:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3dSfHWF Tyler Durden

Nobody (Still) Wants To Work As Job Openings Hit New Record, But Number Of People Quitting Tumbles

Nobody (Still) Wants To Work As Job Openings Hit New Record, But Number Of People Quitting Tumbles

In previewing today’s JOLTS data, Bloomberg writes that it “is likely to matter more for investors than FOMC minutes later today” as the last three prints have led to a pop in stocks after the first five minutes, with tech underperforming alongside a rise in yields and the dollar. The exception is the last print, which boosted stocks but did not translate to the bond market. As a reminder, the last reading shocked to the upside with job openings hitting a fresh record of 9.3 million, illustrating that enhanced unemployment benefits have indeed depressed employment.

As Bloomberg adds, depending on today’s number, “either last month’s print can be dismissed as a one-off or we will get further evidence of a problem that could hinder the next steps of recovery. There are two possible readings. The first is that unfilled job openings mean the Fed can keep deferring taper talk, which would be risk-positive. However, if the labor market faces a disconnect between hirers and workers, that could be inflationary.”

With that in mind, moments ago the DOL reported that in May (which as a reminder is extra delayed since JOLTS is one month behind the jobs report) we got more of the same, with job opening hitting a record 9.209MM, slightly below the expected 9.325MM. But how is this a record since last month the number was 9.286MM? Simple: the DOL revised the April print lower to 9.193MM, making the May print the highest on record. That said, unlike last month’s record surge which saw 905K new job openings added, in May job openings rose my a much more modest 16K.

Looking at the details, the increase in job openings was driven by a number of industries with the largest increases in other services (+109,000), state and local government education (+46,000), and educational services (+35,000). The number of job openings decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-80,000); state and local government, excluding education (-56,000); and federal government (-17,000). The number of job openings was little changed in all four region

Separately, in yet another indication of the record surge in demand for labor since the collapse last April when there were 18.1 million more unemployed workers than there are job openings – the biggest gap on record – the gap has since shrunk dramatically to just 107K in May, down from 619K in March. Yes: despite the covid shock, there are just one hundred thousand more unemployed people than there are job openings!

As a result, there has been even more continued improvement in the job availability series, and in May there were just 1.01 unemployed workers for every job opening, down from 1.06 in April, 1.19 in March, and from 4.6 at the peak crisis moment last April.

At the same, a sign that the acceleration in the hiring picture as covid lockdowns were lifted may have peaked, in May hiring posted a modest decline, with total hires dropping modestly from 6.012MM, in April to 5.927MM in May, the lowest since February.

According to the BLS, hires decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-56,000) and in federal government (-10,000).

Curiously, as hires dipped, so did the number and rate of total separations which decreased to 5.3 million (-485,000): total separations level decreased in four industries, with the largest decreases in professional and business services (-192,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-53,000); and state and local government education (-42,000).

Finally, and in a sign that the overheating in the labor market appears to be coming to an end, in May the level of quits – or people leaving their job voluntarily due to better prospects elsewhere – posted its biggest decline since the peak of the covid crisis, as it plunged by a whopping 388K to 3.604 million, dropping from a record 3.992 million, after rising by 424K and 185K in the previous two months. The number of quits increased in a number of industries with the largest increases in retail trade (+106,000), professional and business services (+94,000), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+49,000).

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/07/2021 – 10:22

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2TMg8ev Tyler Durden

Los Angeles Is Squandering $1.2 Billion While Homeless Face a ‘Spiral of Death’


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Five years after Los Angeles voters approved a $1.2 billion bond measure and a countywide sales tax hike to raise another estimated $355 million annually to solve its homelessness problem, there are more people living and dying on the streets than ever before.

Many of these men and women are both frequent targets and perpetrators of violence.

Mayor Eric Garcetti (D), who did not respond to our interview request, has partially blamed this failure on the pandemic, which slowed new housing construction and limited shelter capacity. It’s true that COVID caused a surge in homelessness, but the city’s plan was already failing.

In 2019, homelessness spiked 13 percent in L.A. County.

“This [was] happening way before the pandemic,” says Deisy Suarez, the proprietor of Desuar Day Spa in downtown L.A. “There [are] tents popping up in places that we didn’t see [them] before. It’s just getting worse and worse.”

The centerpiece of L.A.’s plan was to spend the $1.2 billion raised through Proposition HHH to build 10,000 supportive housing units over a decade. Even if the government were able to pull that off, it would merely put a dent in the problem in a city where more than 30,000 people are living on the streets and sidewalks according to the 2020 homelessness count.

Five years into the 10-year plan, just 14 projects are in service. Of the promised 10,000 supportive housing units, the city has completed fewer than 700.

It would take more than 30 years to house all of the people currently homeless in L.A. county at that pace, according to a federal court order.

As the homeless population exploded, some shelter providers implored the mayor to spend more of the money on immediate shelter, mental health services, and substance abuse treatment, but Garcetti went all-in on his ambitious 10-year plan.

Los Angeles’s approach to the homelessness crisis is a series of colossal failures. The city has proven itself to be incapable of “solving homelessness,” but it could take more modest steps to help alleviate suffering and restore peace and safety to the streets. It could also bring an end to many longstanding policies that caused these men and women to end up homeless in the first place.

“A Deadly Status Quo”

In a scathing court order issued in April, U.S. District Judge David Carter said that the city’s inaction” is “so egregious, and the state so nonfunctional” that it’s “likely in violation of the [14th Amendment’s] Equal Protection Clause.”

L.A. has the largest unsheltered homeless population in America, and ground zero is a 50-square-block district known as Skid Row—officially turned into a containment zone by the city in 1976—where the problem has escalated into a full-blown humanitarian crisis. It’s a problem that’s rooted in misguided government policies decades in the making, but Carter’s order places blame for the city’s failure to address the immediate crisis squarely at the feet of Garcetti.

Carter criticized Garcetti for failing to declare a state of emergency, which he says could’ve eliminated bureaucratic hurdles to building new housing, and for his failure to spend a significant portion of the $1.2 billion that the city has borrowed on constructing temporary shelters, tiny houses, or even 3D-printed homes.

The judge ordered the city to put $1 billion in escrow so that he can monitor how that money is spent. He’s also ordering the city to provide shelter for the more than 4,600 people living on the streets of Skid Row before the end of 2021.

But the mayor has said Carter’s order will derail the city’s plan.

“Stay out of our way,” Garcetti said during an April press conference in response to the judge’s order. “Roadblocks masquerading as progress are the last thing we need.”

And his city attorney has appealed the ruling. L.A. County is asking to be dropped from the suit altogether.

“We Can’t Tell People It’s OK To Die on the Streets”

“I wish I could say I was shocked at the pushback from L.A. County and L.A. City,” says Andy Bales, who runs the Skid Row–based Union Rescue Mission, which runs entirely on private donations. The organization shelters more than 900 people a night and moves more than 900 people into permanent housing a year, according to its most recent annual report. Bales has been a fierce critic of the city’s approach, which he says has been slow, expensive, and capable of serving only a fraction of the homeless population.

“This is a deadly status quo and people don’t just die. They die a horrific death of assaults and beatings and rapes…heat and cold and wet. It is a brutal, brutal spiral to death that we’re leaving people in,” says Bales, who’s long called for the city to redirect the funds raised through Proposition HHH to temporary, faster solutions.

But other homeless service providers and activists, and the editorial board of the Los Angeles Times, have expressed concern that Carter’s order will derail the plan to put homeless people into permanent housing by prioritizing substandard temporary shelters.

“You can’t look at a place like Skid Row and think, ‘Oh, we don’t need an immediate response.’ We need that,” says Amy Turk, CEO of the Downtown Women’s Center, another Skid Row-based service provider that helps homeless women find food, services, and housing.

“But we can’t [fund emergency shelter] at the expense of perhaps clawing back money that we’ve designated for permanent housing or not having enough for the permanent housing side,” says Turk.

Turk’s group has backed the city’s approach and owns two buildings offering permanent supportive housing in Skid Row. Downtown Women’s Center found housing for 79 women and 124 children in 2019, according to its annual report.

Turk says the goal should be to move people experiencing homelessness into permanent supportive housing, which is what Suzette Shaw had done with the help of the Downtown Women’s Center.

“People living in Skid Row are living in less than third-world living conditions. You’re always in a state of survival mode,” says Shaw, a homeless rights activist who has lived on Skid Row for more than eight years.

Shaw never slept on the streets—she lived in single-occupancy hotel rooms and shelters. And then the Downtown Women’s Center helped her find the permanent supportive housing where she now lives.

“Having my own home now and space that I can create and make my own home and having my own kitchen and slowly working to a sense of normalcy…I close that door and it’s my sanctuary,” Shaw tells Reason.

But while Shaw is a notable success story, and the Garcetti administration has claimed to have moved more than 30,000 people into permanent housing using existing stock, the growth of L.A.’s unsheltered homeless population is far outpacing new housing construction.

“It was working with Judge Carter and hearing about tiny homes [that made them] seem like a good option to add to the mix,” says Bob Blumenfield, a city council member whose district in the San Fernando Valley has a relatively small homeless population compared to the rest of L.A.

After consulting with Carter, he was able to secure funding—but not HHH money—to build 52 “Pallet shelters” with 100 beds in the parking lot behind his council office, administered by a nonprofit that will provide meals, amenities like laundry, internet access, storage, drug and mental health counseling, and 24/7 security.

Amy Turk points out that while temporary sites are cheap to build, they can be expensive to run, with one parking lot campground the city administers costing more than $2,600 a month per person.

“You can’t just set up a shelter without knowing how you’re going to get people into permanent housing,” says Turk. “People will just stay in your interim shelter for a very long time. It is more costly to run a shelter with 24-hour staffing and security.” 

Temporary shelter is costly—but far cheaper and quicker to construct than permanent supportive housing, which is averaging about $566,000 per unit in L.A. The total cost of Blumenfield’s cabin community was $3.1 million, or $31,000 per bed.

“The perfect is often the enemy of the good,” says Blumenfield. “We can’t tell people that until we have all the permanent supportive housing that it’s OK to die on the streets or to live on the streets in horrible, horrible conditions.”

Blumenfield’s cabin community model is based on a similar idea launched in Riverside County last year at about a third of the construction cost per bed.

“When I spoke to people as they come in, the ability to have sort of a door to shut, four walls that surround you and really being in your own space…I think that was important to people: being in your own space because your mind can finally rest and it can start thinking on what it needs,” says Tyler Ahtonen, the program manager with City Net, the nonprofit that Riverside contracted with to run the site, which sits adjacent to a parking lot less than two miles from downtown Riverside.

Since launching in March 2020, the site with 30 units has served 160 people, moving 43 into permanent housing.

“You don’t know what’s going to happen on the street, but coming in here, I had my own space, which was a lot bigger than my tent,” says Lisa Care, who was living on the streets for two years before a City Net outreach worker offered her a Pallet shelter and eventually found her an apartment. She says the privacy and security offered was enough to bring her off the street when the offer of a group living shelter wouldn’t.

“This place is like living in a one-bedroom mansion or something as opposed to the shelter,” says Care. “I’d take my chances on the street before I’d go back to the shelter.”

Riverside’s homeless solutions officer, Hafsa Keika, says that while she believes more permanent supportive housing is what will ultimately end homelessness, transitional options like Pallet shelters actually help achieve that goal.

“We saw that more than 80 percent [of homeless people] indicated that if they had an opportunity to have their own space, they would accept shelter,” says Keika. “Some of the individuals who maybe struggled with getting into permanent housing were able to find this as a pathway. They’re able to learn the life skills, sit with our case managers, really learn the necessary communication to be able to get into permanent housing and have that warm handoff…and so by having the shelter and the shelter case management, they’re able to get ready for that step.”

There are even lower-cost options used in cities like Austin and Mexico City, where there are 3D-printed homes for homeless people that were produced by a startup for $4,000 in 24 hours.

And in 2016, Reason profiled a local artist constructing tiny homes for the homeless for only $1,200 apiece. Instead of partnering with him and offering land for the homes, the city seized and impounded them.

The more than a billion dollars that Los Angeles has borrowed could be used to build shelters like this, but the city government has failed to allocate much of the money to faster, temporary solutions.

And local public radio affiliate KCRW has documented instances of corruption surrounding the city’s current homelessness housing plan, with developers receiving taxpayer money to build homeless housing reselling the properties to themselves for millions in profit.

Carter notes that “the improper relationship between City Hall and real estate developers is neither isolated nor new.”

“The FBI has been investigating possible corruption in City Hall since 2017,” continues Carter, “a probe that has led to the prosecution of real estate consultants, political fundraisers, and even, most notably, former Councilmember Jose Huizar, whose council district included Skid Row. In June 2020, Huizar was arrested by federal agents for using his position to cover up illegal activities…”

“[The city has] said, ‘Let’s keep the status quo and allow the developers to continue because they are carrying it out in good faith, and they’re doing it well,” says Andy Bales. “Well, no, there’s evidence that it’s not being done well… and it’s not being done in good faith.”

“You Don’t Have a Right to Every Park Bench”

“I’m a believer in the right to housing, but at the same time, you don’t have a right to every park bench,” says Blumenfield. “The city has an obligation to protect its public right-of-ways. If someone is homeless, that is a tragedy, and we need to work on that and get them into some form of transitional housing.” 

But even if the city quickly were to build more emergency shelters, not all the men and women living on the streets of Skid Row would necessarily abandon their sidewalk encampments to go live in them.

“I don’t want to go live in [a] shelter,” says Willie “Bishop” Smith, a Skid Row resident. “I might as well just go back to jail.”

In 2006, a year after a homeless woman was beaten to death on the streets of Skid Row, Los Angeles Police Department Chief Bill Bratton launched the “Safer Cities Initiative” and sent 50 police officers to patrol the neighborhood and issue citations for minor infractions.

Proponents pointed out that in just a few months the number of people sleeping on the streets was cut almost in half. “We’ve broken the back of the problem,” said Bratton.

But homeless activists said that many of those people just dispersed to other parts of the city and that the city was criminalizing homelessness. The Garcetti administration ended the program in 2015 when an LAPD officer fatally shot a homeless man.

“I don’t think the criminalization side is reasonable at all,” says Turk. “Once we start incarcerating people for quality of life issues, then we’ve just increased our costs with the carceral system. We’ve re-traumatized people. And I don’t think there’s a moral reason to do that.” 

But Elizabeth Mitchell, an attorney representing the group of downtown business owners, residents, and homeless people who sued Los Angeles, known as the LA Alliance for Human Rights, disagrees with Turk’s characterization.

“The idea that this is criminalizing homelessness is an absolute red herring. It’s a total myth that you can’t both be compassionate and regulate public spaces at the same time,” says Mitchell.

She points out that when Carter issued an order in Orange County allowing city governments to clear encampments, they did so without arrests by sending social workers to offer shelter and mental health and drug treatment services and inform those living there that they had two weeks to move their belongings from the area.

“If you look at this approach that we are advocating for, we have sheltered over 4,000 people without a single citation or arrest. So I don’t see how that could possibly be criminalization,” says Mitchell. “Everybody agrees that law enforcement should be an absolute last resort, but regulation of public spaces needs to occur again for everyone.” 

And there’s a danger that law enforcement could take a more aggressive approach if the city fails to act.

L.A. County Sheriff Alex Villanueva sent a team of deputies out to Venice Beach in mid-June without consulting the city council and vowed to start clearing encampments in the coming weeks with or without city approval.

Several weeks later, on July 2, city council approved new prohibitions on camping near shelters, parks, elementary schools, and entrances to homes and businesses.

“Literally the only goal is to get people sheltered and off of the street as fast as possible throughout Los Angeles,” says Mitchell. “What we can’t accept is people dying on the streets while the city bureaucracies turn out overpriced housing that helps too few.”

The suit argues that the damage done to downtown residents and entrepreneurs by the city’s incompetence constitutes a taking of property. Deisy Suarez, the proprietor of Desuar Day Spa in downtown L.A., agrees.

“We have customers that refuse to come inside because they just completely don’t feel safe,” says Suarez. “It’s just so hard because now we have appointments that were booked and now they’re empty.”

Suarez is named in the suit, as is her brother Leandro, a Navy veteran in a wheelchair who has often been unable to navigate around encampments blocking sidewalks, which partially forms the basis for an Americans with Disabilities Act claim in the lawsuit.

“He had a lot of encounters with people that were aggressive. People wouldn’t move, wouldn’t give him the path. A person took out a stick and threatened to hit him.” 

She also says her two young children witnessed an attack on her husband walking around the area, causing her to move the family 30 minutes outside of the city.

“That’s when I had lost it, and I had a meltdown,” says Suarez. “I was like, ‘I gotta get my kids to a safer place. This is not the environment that I want my kids to grow.'”

Between 2018 and 2019, violent crimes perpetrated by homeless suspects increased 22.5 percent, with a 48 percent increase in Skid Row and downtown L.A. Violent crimes against homeless people increased 19 percent citywide in the same period.

“I’ve seen people get beat up, run over, tents being put on fire. I just can’t believe what I see. It’s just unfathomable. It’s really difficult to watch,” says Harry Tashdjian, co-owner of an upholstery supply business in Skid Row where he says he’s seen conditions deteriorate on the block outside his building.

“We have vendors that fly in from all over the world…and they just can’t believe what they see when they come to Los Angeles,” says Tashdjian. “I’ve never heard once a customer walk in and say, ‘Yeah, this time it got better.’ It’s constantly getting worse and worse and worse.”

Both Tashdjian and Suarez trace the decline that began in 2016 to a federal court injunction prohibiting police from seizing property people are storing on the sidewalk or street.

“Over the last 20 years…through these series of decisions and settlements, it’s had a complete chilling effect on city and county officials,” says Mitchell.

Federal court rulings and settlements have shaped homeless policy not only in Los Angeles but nationwide, with the February 2021 Boise v. Martin settlement making clear that cities couldn’t clear encampments without offering “adequate shelter,” a term that’s never been precisely defined.

“So the question was…is there a way that we can use the courts to do the opposite, to unhandcuff the city of Los Angeles, to unhandcuff the county of Los Angeles and the officials to really do what they say they want to do, which is solve this comprehensively,” says Mitchell. 

She says Carter’s order gives the city an opportunity to bypass the morass of settlements and begin to move people off the sidewalks and streets and into shelters. But instead of embracing that opportunity, Garcetti has appealed the decision.

“The mayor is just kind of gaslighting us,” says Suarez. “I absolutely think that he is a disgrace. He is a mayor that has failed us. His usage of the funds from [Proposition] HHH is just unbelievably ridiculous.” 

Bales says that the appeal will only lead to more suffering and death.

“Our city, our county, [the] L.A. Times…have all pushed back and fought the judge and made disingenuous claims that we can’t put a roof over everybody’s heads in three months. Well, I can guarantee you if you appeal and take it to the 9th Circuit Court and to the Supreme Court, yeah, you can’t get it done.”

A Supply and Demand Problem

A high percentage of L.A.’s homeless population has mental illness and substance abuse problems, and L.A. County has concluded it has fewer than half the available mental health beds necessary to serve its population.

The judge’s order directs the city and county to spend more of the funds to expand mental health and substance abuse services within 90 days.

“[The county’s] substance abuse and mental health services are atrocious. So by requiring the county to actually treat people who need treatment…it’s life-changing,” says Mitchell. 

But there’s also a significant percentage of people who aren’t severely mentally ill or addicted to drugs at the time they become homeless, and living on the streets likely exacerbates mental health issues.

Some people who are living at the margin are pushed out of housing by a combination of high rents and inability to navigate the housing assistance bureaucracy.

The city exacerbated this problem on Skid Row in the 1950s and 1960s by condemning and demolishing half of the existing single-room occupancy hotels that housed many of the neighborhood’s extremely low-income residents.

UCLA Economist William Yu is the latest researcher to find a strong correlation between high housing prices and homelessness in a survey of American cities.

California is home to some of the least affordable urban housing markets in the country, including the L.A. metro area, according to the U.S. Census Department’s American Community Survey. A county survey found that 60 percent of newly homeless people cite economic hardship as the leading factor in their lack of housing and that two-thirds became homeless while living in L.A. County.

The approach of local and state officials has largely been to promote measures like rent control and mandating low-cost housing in new construction.

But market urbanists have long said that housing is simply too expensive to build because of zoning, permitting, and onerous overregulation.

City leaders maintain that their involvement in real estate development remains essential to tackling housing affordability.

“It’s not simply a supply and demand issue in the sense that we’re seeing supply go up, but it tends to often be this luxury housing,” says Blumenfield. 

But a Journal of Urban Economics study of the Bay Area found that “local land use regulations are closely linked to the value of houses sold.” A Brookings Institution study of California found “cities with less restrictive zoning and large populations issued more multifamily permits,” and a Federal Reserve study found that in metros where demand for housing is high, more regulations correlated to “almost double the increase in housing prices.”

Even regulation meant to directly address the problem by mandating affordable housing caused prices to rise 2 to 3 percent faster, according to a 2009 HUD study.

Since the housing market’s structural problems won’t be fixed anytime soon, the homeless population is likely to keep growing.

And Mayor Garcetti may be headed out the door after reportedly being offered an ambassadorship to India from the Biden administration. But his successor will have to decide whether to continue on the course he’s set by fighting a legal battle, while spending taxpayer money on six-figure permanent housing units, or to shift course in favor of cheaper, faster emergency shelters to more immediately address the deteriorating conditions in the city’s public spaces.

Los Angeles appears to be incapable of delivering adequate housing on its current path, which is why Judge Carter ordered the city to offer some form of shelter for everyone on Skid Row by October. The 9th Circuit overrode that order on June 10 pending an appeal to be heard on July 7.

“Humans weren’t meant to live without a roof over their heads,” says Bales. “It becomes very survival of the fittest and very violent…It’s beyond a disaster. And yet the officials seem to be allowing it to get worse rather than intervening.” 

Carter sees the current situation as not only a failure of current city leadership but a result of decades of government neglect and abuse, starting with the city creating and sustaining the squalor of Skid Row by making it a containment zone in 1976, using eminent domain to seize homes in poor communities for highway construction, and driving up housing prices through exclusionary zoning, blighting old properties and excessive permitting.

These are all policies that he says were “designed to segregate and disenfranchise,” the costs of which have fallen disproportionately on black Americans who make up 42 percent of the homeless population despite being only 7 percent of the city population.

“People want instant solution to homelessness, but you’re talking about 400 years of racism that has contributed to homelessness. So how do we undo that overnight is the big moral question of our time,” says Turk.  

Bales says that the city only continues to perpetuate these harms by dragging its feet when offered a path forward.

“All of the housing that we could possibly do would be the correct response,” says Bales. “How can you say a judge is slowing me down when we’ve developed 641 very expensive, slow-to-develop units? All that the city and county are doing is building the case against themselves for not wanting to address homelessness on Skid Row.”

Produced and edited by Zach Weissmueller; camera by Benjamin Gaskell, Paul Detrick, and Weissmueller; additional graphics by Calvin Tran and Isaac Reese. 

Photos: David Crane/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Sarah Reingewirtz/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Image of Sport/Newscom; Image of Sport/Newscom; Dylan Stewart/Image of Sport/Newscom; Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call/Newscom; Armando Arorizo/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Sarah Reingewirtz/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; KYLE GRILLOT/REUTERS/Newscom.

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Pfizer Vaccine 94 Percent Effective at Stopping Severe Sickness From Delta Variant


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Should you worry about the delta variant? Recent headlines have been filled with alarming warnings that existing vaccines may be no match for the rapidly spreading COVID-19 variant. Meanwhile, some authorities have been using the delta variant to suggest an end to the easing of public health restrictions like business closures and mask mandates or instituting such restrictions once again.

But while the delta variant definitely poses a risk for unvaccinated populations, its danger to vaccinated people may be overstated.

Yes, “new data from Israel suggest the effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine declines sharply when it’s pitted against the hyperinfectious delta variant,” Megan McArdle noted at The Washington Post yesterday. “Last week, more than half of all covid-19 cases in Israel reportedly occurred in people who were vaccinated; the vaccine appears to prevent only about two-thirds of symptomatic cases, compared with preventing almost 100 percent among older variants.”

While the Pfizer vaccine might not be as effective at totally thwarting the delta variant as it is with older strains of COVID-19, however, it still seems to protect recipients from the more severe effects of the virus.

“The vaccine protected 64% of inoculated people from infection during an outbreak of the Delta variant, down from 94% before,” points out the Wall Street Journal. “It was 94% effective at preventing severe illness in the same period, compared with 97% before, the [Israeli Health] ministry said.”

And some health experts are skeptical of the Israeli data, suggesting that it understates the value of the Pfizer vaccine against the delta variant.

“Speaking to colleagues in Israel, real skepticism about 64% number,” tweeted Ashish K. Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, on July 5. “Best data still suggest mRNA vaccines offer high degree of protection against infection” and “superb protection against severe illness.”

As of now, “if you’re vaccinated, I wouldn’t worry,” Jha commented.


FREE MARKETS

Porn site XTube announces plans to shut down amid targeting from values groups. “XTube, one of the first adult site (sic) to allow users to upload and share pornographic videos, is shutting down on September 5, thirteen years after it was founded,” reports Techspot. “While no reason for the closure has been given, it’s speculated that the legal problems faced by parent MindGeek influenced the decision.”

Mindgeek—which is also behind Pornhub—has been a major target of religious activists at Exodus Cry and the famous 1980s values group Morality in Media (now called the National Center on Sexual Exploitation), which have been leading a campaign against the company in Congress, the media, and the courts.


FREE MINDS


QUICK HITS

• We still don’t know if masks work.

• “Keeping American boots on the ground means keeping them in harm’s way,” writes Fiona Harrigan.

• Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, is drawing criticism for his plan to fund airline tickets for people who travel to Tennessee.

• “Chime, a ‘neobank’ serving millions, is racking up complaints from users who can’t access their cash,” reports ProPublica. “The company says it’s cracking down on an ‘extraordinary surge’ in fraudulent deposits. That’s little consolation to customers caught in the fray.”

• How antitrust can hurt U.S. competitiveness.

• Another tale of out-of-control child protective services.

• Protecting and serving:

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Trump Sues Jack Dorsey, Mark Zuckerberg Over Social Media Censorship Of Conservatives

Trump Sues Jack Dorsey, Mark Zuckerberg Over Social Media Censorship Of Conservatives

Shortly after President Trump made his first political appearance since leaving the White House with a rally in the key swing state of Ohio, the GOP standard-bearer and his team are reportedly preparing to fire off their latest salvo in the longstanding war between Trump and America’s social media giants.

With Trump suspended from Facebook until at least January 2023, Axios reports that Trump is preparing to file a class action lawsuit against Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey. Trump has also been indefinitely suspended from Twitter. In the lawsuit, Trump’s lawyers will argue that both platforms enforce systematic censorship against conservatives.

Even though it got the scoop, Axios appeared to dismiss the importance of the lawsuit, claiming in it report that “Trump and other conservative critics have not presented any substantial evidence that either platform is biased against conservatives in its policies or implementation of them.”

However, it looks like the market is taking Trump’s threats seriously: shares of Facebook and Twitter (the companies that Zuck and Dorsey respectively lead) traded lower on the news.

Trump is expected to formally announce the lawsuit at a press conference set for 1100ET.

Additionally, Trump is being supported by the America First Policy Institte, a non-profit focused on preserving Trump’s legacy and supporting policies he backed. It’s run by Trump’s former SBA head Linda McMahon and Brooke Rollins, another former administration official who served as acting director of the Domestic Policy Council.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/07/2021 – 09:57

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Beijing Plans To Scrap Longstanding Loophole Allowing Chinese Firms To List In US

Beijing Plans To Scrap Longstanding Loophole Allowing Chinese Firms To List In US

For years, Beijing has quietly chafed as its most valuable companies sought to list in New York over domestic markets like Hong Kong and Shanghai. Now, after rug-pulling Didi’s listing while delivering the dreaded shoulder-tap to ByteDance – the TikTok owner has reportedly already scrapped its plans to list in New York in favor of Hong Kong – China’s Securities Regulatory Commission is reportedly changing rules that have allowed foreign IPOs.

According to Bloomberg, the CSRC is planning to reverse rules governing overseas listings that have been in place since 1994 (long before China finally joined the WTO).

Specifically, the new rules would explicitly require Chinese firms using the Variable Interest Entity model – or VIE – to seek and receive approval from Chinese regulators before they can go public in Hong Kong and the US.

American analysts and investors have long been wary of the VIE structure, which received a lot of skeptical press coverage in the US back in 2014 ahead of Alibaba’s historic public offering.

As Globescan explains, almost every listed Chinese company trading outside of China is listed through a VIE structure. The structure ensures that investors – many of whom don’t realize what’s going on – don’t actually own any part of the underlying Chinese company.

Infographic: Chinese Companies Take Aim at Wall Street | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

While that might sound ridiculous, sadly its true. Investors who buy shares in Chinese stocks such as JD.com, Alibaba, Tencent, etc., do not technically have any ownership of the underlying business whatsoever.

Globescan continues:

The reason is that under Chinese law, foreign ownership in certain (most) Chinese industries is prohibited. As a result, it is illegal for Chinese companies like JD.com and Alibaba to have any non-Chinese shareholders. Back in the early 2000s, as the China growth engine was really beginning, Chinese companies growing quickly looked longingly at the huge amounts of capital available in the US and wanted to access it. At the same time, US investors and Wall Street firms looked longingly at the huge growth rates in China and wanted to access that. But Chinese law prevented them both from doing so.

So, a structure was developed to circumvent Chinese law: the VIE (Variable Interest Entity). This is a structure that has been around for decades, first popularized here in the US by Enron to obfuscate assets and liabilities on its balance sheet (there is the first alarm bell…).

The VIE structure achieves the dual purpose of giving Chinese companies access to Western capital, whilst simultaneously allowing Western investors access to Chinese stocks. It does so by effectively saying two different things to each side: the VIE says to the Chinese regulator that the company in question is wholly owned by Chinese nationals, while the same VIE simultaneously tells the Western shareholders that they legitimately own that Chinese company.

To explain exactly how the VIE structure works, Globescan offered Tencent as an example:

We will use Tencent as an example to explain the basic structure of a VIE. Tencent operates in a sector on the ‘restricted list’ issued by the government. This list outlines which sectors are prohibited from having any foreign ownership. It is a very broad list, with general wording such that in reality the majority of Chinese companies are barred from any outside ownership.

So as a result, Tencent cannot sell its shares to any non-Chinese investors. But it can circumvent this law using that VIE structure.  Without getting into complex legalities, the VIE works as follows; Tencent creates a Cayman Islands listed shell company (no real business, no office, no employees), which it also calls Tencent. (For simplicity from here onwards we will refer to the actual Tencent as ‘Real Tencent’, and the Caymans shell company as ‘Fake Tencent’) Once Fake Tencent has been setup, Real Tencent then creates a complex web of legal agreements that serve to give Fake Tencent a claim on the profits and control of the assets that belong to Real Tencent.

(Note that there is no recognition of any actual ownership, just a claim on the profits and indication of an element of control)

Fake Tencent now owns as its only asset these contracts and agreements. Fake Tencent then lists itself as a company on the NYSE, selling shares to investors under the name ‘Tencent’. Wall Street banks take in millions of dollars in fees to list Fake Tencent, and hundreds of investment firms and investors invest billions of dollars into buying shares of Fake Tencent. Bear in mind, the whole time the Western investors are buying stock in a company called ‘Tencent’ that appears to simply be the Chinese company. Fake Tencent appears to have control over the assets and a right to the profits of the real Tencent in China, even though in reality it is just a shell company with no real assets or business.

Since Chinese first discovered the loophole, it has been technically illegal in China. But a loophole embraced by regulators allowed firms to continue to list in the US using the structure. Now, Beijing is looking to close that loophole after Chinese firms raised $76 billion via new offerings in the US over the last decade.

Already, anti-monopoly regulations released in November following the abrupt suspension of Ant’s offering adopted language to give it approval power over mergers and acquisitions conducted by VIEs. The condition has since been used to fine tech companies for past deals and hangs over future transactions.

Now, BBG’s sources say regulators are quietly warning firms and their advisers that they should abandon any plans to pursue new foreign deals using the structure.

The CSRC didn’t immediately respond to a fax seeking comment. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin directed questions on VIE firms to the relevant authorities during a press briefing in Beijing. Bloomberg News reported on the potential rule tightening in May.

Pioneered by Sina Corp. and its investment bankers during a 2000 initial public offering, the VIE framework has never been formally endorsed by Beijing. It has nevertheless enabled Chinese companies to sidestep restrictions on foreign investment in sensitive sectors including the Internet industry.

The structure allows a Chinese firm to transfer profits to an offshore entity — registered in places like the Cayman Islands or the British Virgin Islands — with shares that foreign investors can then own.

Aside from ByteDance, which has already reportedly decided to move its offering to Hong Kong, HK-based logistics and delivery firm Lalamove, known as Huolala in China, has already reportedly filed (confidentially, of course) for a US IPO.

As we pointed out yesterday, Beijing needs domestic companies to list in Hong Kong and Beijing because if they don’t, who will?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/07/2021 – 09:45

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Los Angeles Is Squandering $1.2 Billion While Homeless Face a ‘Spiral of Death’


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Five years after Los Angeles voters approved a $1.2 billion bond measure and a countywide sales tax hike to raise another estimated $355 million annually to solve its homelessness problem, there are more people living and dying on the streets than ever before.

Many of these men and women are both frequent targets and perpetrators of violence.

Mayor Eric Garcetti (D), who did not respond to our interview request, has partially blamed this failure on the pandemic, which slowed new housing construction and limited shelter capacity. It’s true that COVID caused a surge in homelessness, but the city’s plan was already failing.

In 2019, homelessness spiked 13 percent in L.A. County.

“This [was] happening way before the pandemic,” says Deisy Suarez, the proprietor of Desuar Day Spa in downtown L.A. “There [are] tents popping up in places that we didn’t see [them] before. It’s just getting worse and worse.”

The centerpiece of L.A.’s plan was to spend the $1.2 billion raised through Proposition HHH to build 10,000 supportive housing units over a decade. Even if the government were able to pull that off, it would merely put a dent in the problem in a city where more than 30,000 people are living on the streets and sidewalks according to the 2020 homelessness count.

Five years into the 10-year plan, just 14 projects are in service. Of the promised 10,000 supportive housing units, the city has completed fewer than 700.

It would take more than 30 years to house all of the people currently homeless in L.A. county at that pace, according to a federal court order.

As the homeless population exploded, some shelter providers implored the mayor to spend more of the money on immediate shelter, mental health services, and substance abuse treatment, but Garcetti went all-in on his ambitious 10-year plan.

Los Angeles’s approach to the homelessness crisis is a series of colossal failures. The city has proven itself to be incapable of “solving homelessness,” but it could take more modest steps to help alleviate suffering and restore peace and safety to the streets. It could also bring an end to many longstanding policies that caused these men and women to end up homeless in the first place.

“A Deadly Status Quo”

In a scathing court order issued in April, U.S. District Judge David Carter said that the city’s inaction” is “so egregious, and the state so nonfunctional” that it’s “likely in violation of the [14th Amendment’s] Equal Protection Clause.”

L.A. has the largest unsheltered homeless population in America, and ground zero is a 50-square-block district known as Skid Row—officially turned into a containment zone by the city in 1976—where the problem has escalated into a full-blown humanitarian crisis. It’s a problem that’s rooted in misguided government policies decades in the making, but Carter’s order places blame for the city’s failure to address the immediate crisis squarely at the feet of Garcetti.

Carter criticized Garcetti for failing to declare a state of emergency, which he says could’ve eliminated bureaucratic hurdles to building new housing, and for his failure to spend a significant portion of the $1.2 billion that the city has borrowed on constructing temporary shelters, tiny houses, or even 3D-printed homes.

The judge ordered the city to put $1 billion in escrow so that he can monitor how that money is spent. He’s also ordering the city to provide shelter for the more than 4,600 people living on the streets of Skid Row before the end of 2021.

But the mayor has said Carter’s order will derail the city’s plan.

“Stay out of our way,” Garcetti said during an April press conference in response to the judge’s order. “Roadblocks masquerading as progress are the last thing we need.”

And his city attorney has appealed the ruling. L.A. County is asking to be dropped from the suit altogether.

“We Can’t Tell People It’s OK To Die on the Streets”

“I wish I could say I was shocked at the pushback from L.A. County and L.A. City,” says Andy Bales, who runs the Skid Row–based Union Rescue Mission, which runs entirely on private donations. The organization shelters more than 900 people a night and moves more than 900 people into permanent housing a year, according to its most recent annual report. Bales has been a fierce critic of the city’s approach, which he says has been slow, expensive, and capable of serving only a fraction of the homeless population.

“This is a deadly status quo and people don’t just die. They die a horrific death of assaults and beatings and rapes…heat and cold and wet. It is a brutal, brutal spiral to death that we’re leaving people in,” says Bales, who’s long called for the city to redirect the funds raised through Proposition HHH to temporary, faster solutions.

But other homeless service providers and activists, and the editorial board of the Los Angeles Times, have expressed concern that Carter’s order will derail the plan to put homeless people into permanent housing by prioritizing substandard temporary shelters.

“You can’t look at a place like Skid Row and think, ‘Oh, we don’t need an immediate response.’ We need that,” says Amy Turk, CEO of the Downtown Women’s Center, another Skid Row-based service provider that helps homeless women find food, services, and housing.

“But we can’t [fund emergency shelter] at the expense of perhaps clawing back money that we’ve designated for permanent housing or not having enough for the permanent housing side,” says Turk.

Turk’s group has backed the city’s approach and owns two buildings offering permanent supportive housing in Skid Row. Downtown Women’s Center found housing for 79 women and 124 children in 2019, according to its annual report.

Turk says the goal should be to move people experiencing homelessness into permanent supportive housing, which is what Suzette Shaw had done with the help of the Downtown Women’s Center.

“People living in Skid Row are living in less than third-world living conditions. You’re always in a state of survival mode,” says Shaw, a homeless rights activist who has lived on Skid Row for more than eight years.

Shaw never slept on the streets—she lived in single-occupancy hotel rooms and shelters. And then the Downtown Women’s Center helped her find the permanent supportive housing where she now lives.

“Having my own home now and space that I can create and make my own home and having my own kitchen and slowly working to a sense of normalcy…I close that door and it’s my sanctuary,” Shaw tells Reason.

But while Shaw is a notable success story, and the Garcetti administration has claimed to have moved more than 30,000 people into permanent housing using existing stock, the growth of L.A.’s unsheltered homeless population is far outpacing new housing construction.

“It was working with Judge Carter and hearing about tiny homes [that made them] seem like a good option to add to the mix,” says Bob Blumenfield, a city council member whose district in the San Fernando Valley has a relatively small homeless population compared to the rest of L.A.

After consulting with Carter, he was able to secure funding—but not HHH money—to build 52 “Pallet shelters” with 100 beds in the parking lot behind his council office, administered by a nonprofit that will provide meals, amenities like laundry, internet access, storage, drug and mental health counseling, and 24/7 security.

Amy Turk points out that while temporary sites are cheap to build, they can be expensive to run, with one parking lot campground the city administers costing more than $2,600 a month per person.

“You can’t just set up a shelter without knowing how you’re going to get people into permanent housing,” says Turk. “People will just stay in your interim shelter for a very long time. It is more costly to run a shelter with 24-hour staffing and security.” 

Temporary shelter is costly—but far cheaper and quicker to construct than permanent supportive housing, which is averaging about $566,000 per unit in L.A. The total cost of Blumenfield’s cabin community was $3.1 million, or $31,000 per bed.

“The perfect is often the enemy of the good,” says Blumenfield. “We can’t tell people that until we have all the permanent supportive housing that it’s OK to die on the streets or to live on the streets in horrible, horrible conditions.”

Blumenfield’s cabin community model is based on a similar idea launched in Riverside County last year at about a third of the construction cost per bed.

“When I spoke to people as they come in, the ability to have sort of a door to shut, four walls that surround you and really being in your own space…I think that was important to people: being in your own space because your mind can finally rest and it can start thinking on what it needs,” says Tyler Ahtonen, the program manager with City Net, the nonprofit that Riverside contracted with to run the site, which sits adjacent to a parking lot less than two miles from downtown Riverside.

Since launching in March 2020, the site with 30 units has served 160 people, moving 43 into permanent housing.

“You don’t know what’s going to happen on the street, but coming in here, I had my own space, which was a lot bigger than my tent,” says Lisa Care, who was living on the streets for two years before a City Net outreach worker offered her a Pallet shelter and eventually found her an apartment. She says the privacy and security offered was enough to bring her off the street when the offer of a group living shelter wouldn’t.

“This place is like living in a one-bedroom mansion or something as opposed to the shelter,” says Care. “I’d take my chances on the street before I’d go back to the shelter.”

Riverside’s homeless solutions officer, Hafsa Keika, says that while she believes more permanent supportive housing is what will ultimately end homelessness, transitional options like Pallet shelters actually help achieve that goal.

“We saw that more than 80 percent [of homeless people] indicated that if they had an opportunity to have their own space, they would accept shelter,” says Keika. “Some of the individuals who maybe struggled with getting into permanent housing were able to find this as a pathway. They’re able to learn the life skills, sit with our case managers, really learn the necessary communication to be able to get into permanent housing and have that warm handoff…and so by having the shelter and the shelter case management, they’re able to get ready for that step.”

There are even lower-cost options used in cities like Austin and Mexico City, where there are 3D-printed homes for homeless people that were produced by a startup for $4,000 in 24 hours.

And in 2016, Reason profiled a local artist constructing tiny homes for the homeless for only $1,200 apiece. Instead of partnering with him and offering land for the homes, the city seized and impounded them.

The more than a billion dollars that Los Angeles has borrowed could be used to build shelters like this, but the city government has failed to allocate much of the money to faster, temporary solutions.

And local public radio affiliate KCRW has documented instances of corruption surrounding the city’s current homelessness housing plan, with developers receiving taxpayer money to build homeless housing reselling the properties to themselves for millions in profit.

Carter notes that “the improper relationship between City Hall and real estate developers is neither isolated nor new.”

“The FBI has been investigating possible corruption in City Hall since 2017,” continues Carter, “a probe that has led to the prosecution of real estate consultants, political fundraisers, and even, most notably, former Councilmember Jose Huizar, whose council district included Skid Row. In June 2020, Huizar was arrested by federal agents for using his position to cover up illegal activities…”

“[The city has] said, ‘Let’s keep the status quo and allow the developers to continue because they are carrying it out in good faith, and they’re doing it well,” says Andy Bales. “Well, no, there’s evidence that it’s not being done well… and it’s not being done in good faith.”

“You Don’t Have a Right to Every Park Bench”

“I’m a believer in the right to housing, but at the same time, you don’t have a right to every park bench,” says Blumenfield. “The city has an obligation to protect its public right-of-ways. If someone is homeless, that is a tragedy, and we need to work on that and get them into some form of transitional housing.” 

But even if the city quickly were to build more emergency shelters, not all the men and women living on the streets of Skid Row would necessarily abandon their sidewalk encampments to go live in them.

“I don’t want to go live in [a] shelter,” says Willie “Bishop” Smith, a Skid Row resident. “I might as well just go back to jail.”

In 2006, a year after a homeless woman was beaten to death on the streets of Skid Row, Los Angeles Police Department Chief Bill Bratton launched the “Safer Cities Initiative” and sent 50 police officers to patrol the neighborhood and issue citations for minor infractions.

Proponents pointed out that in just a few months the number of people sleeping on the streets was cut almost in half. “We’ve broken the back of the problem,” said Bratton.

But homeless activists said that many of those people just dispersed to other parts of the city and that the city was criminalizing homelessness. The Garcetti administration ended the program in 2015 when an LAPD officer fatally shot a homeless man.

“I don’t think the criminalization side is reasonable at all,” says Turk. “Once we start incarcerating people for quality of life issues, then we’ve just increased our costs with the carceral system. We’ve re-traumatized people. And I don’t think there’s a moral reason to do that.” 

But Elizabeth Mitchell, an attorney representing the group of downtown business owners, residents, and homeless people who sued Los Angeles, known as the LA Alliance for Human Rights, disagrees with Turk’s characterization.

“The idea that this is criminalizing homelessness is an absolute red herring. It’s a total myth that you can’t both be compassionate and regulate public spaces at the same time,” says Mitchell.

She points out that when Carter issued an order in Orange County allowing city governments to clear encampments, they did so without arrests by sending social workers to offer shelter and mental health and drug treatment services and inform those living there that they had two weeks to move their belongings from the area.

“If you look at this approach that we are advocating for, we have sheltered over 4,000 people without a single citation or arrest. So I don’t see how that could possibly be criminalization,” says Mitchell. “Everybody agrees that law enforcement should be an absolute last resort, but regulation of public spaces needs to occur again for everyone.” 

And there’s a danger that law enforcement could take a more aggressive approach if the city fails to act.

L.A. County Sheriff Alex Villanueva sent a team of deputies out to Venice Beach in mid-June without consulting the city council and vowed to start clearing encampments in the coming weeks with or without city approval.

Several weeks later, on July 2, city council approved new prohibitions on camping near shelters, parks, elementary schools, and entrances to homes and businesses.

“Literally the only goal is to get people sheltered and off of the street as fast as possible throughout Los Angeles,” says Mitchell. “What we can’t accept is people dying on the streets while the city bureaucracies turn out overpriced housing that helps too few.”

The suit argues that the damage done to downtown residents and entrepreneurs by the city’s incompetence constitutes a taking of property. Deisy Suarez, the proprietor of Desuar Day Spa in downtown L.A., agrees.

“We have customers that refuse to come inside because they just completely don’t feel safe,” says Suarez. “It’s just so hard because now we have appointments that were booked and now they’re empty.”

Suarez is named in the suit, as is her brother Leandro, a Navy veteran in a wheelchair who has often been unable to navigate around encampments blocking sidewalks, which partially forms the basis for an Americans with Disabilities Act claim in the lawsuit.

“He had a lot of encounters with people that were aggressive. People wouldn’t move, wouldn’t give him the path. A person took out a stick and threatened to hit him.” 

She also says her two young children witnessed an attack on her husband walking around the area, causing her to move the family 30 minutes outside of the city.

“That’s when I had lost it, and I had a meltdown,” says Suarez. “I was like, ‘I gotta get my kids to a safer place. This is not the environment that I want my kids to grow.'”

Between 2018 and 2019, violent crimes perpetrated by homeless suspects increased 22.5 percent, with a 48 percent increase in Skid Row and downtown L.A. Violent crimes against homeless people increased 19 percent citywide in the same period.

“I’ve seen people get beat up, run over, tents being put on fire. I just can’t believe what I see. It’s just unfathomable. It’s really difficult to watch,” says Harry Tashdjian, co-owner of an upholstery supply business in Skid Row where he says he’s seen conditions deteriorate on the block outside his building.

“We have vendors that fly in from all over the world…and they just can’t believe what they see when they come to Los Angeles,” says Tashdjian. “I’ve never heard once a customer walk in and say, ‘Yeah, this time it got better.’ It’s constantly getting worse and worse and worse.”

Both Tashdjian and Suarez trace the decline that began in 2016 to a federal court injunction prohibiting police from seizing property people are storing on the sidewalk or street.

“Over the last 20 years…through these series of decisions and settlements, it’s had a complete chilling effect on city and county officials,” says Mitchell.

Federal court rulings and settlements have shaped homeless policy not only in Los Angeles but nationwide, with the February 2021 Boise v. Martin settlement making clear that cities couldn’t clear encampments without offering “adequate shelter,” a term that’s never been precisely defined.

“So the question was…is there a way that we can use the courts to do the opposite, to unhandcuff the city of Los Angeles, to unhandcuff the county of Los Angeles and the officials to really do what they say they want to do, which is solve this comprehensively,” says Mitchell. 

She says Carter’s order gives the city an opportunity to bypass the morass of settlements and begin to move people off the sidewalks and streets and into shelters. But instead of embracing that opportunity, Garcetti has appealed the decision.

“The mayor is just kind of gaslighting us,” says Suarez. “I absolutely think that he is a disgrace. He is a mayor that has failed us. His usage of the funds from [Proposition] HHH is just unbelievably ridiculous.” 

Bales says that the appeal will only lead to more suffering and death.

“Our city, our county, [the] L.A. Times…have all pushed back and fought the judge and made disingenuous claims that we can’t put a roof over everybody’s heads in three months. Well, I can guarantee you if you appeal and take it to the 9th Circuit Court and to the Supreme Court, yeah, you can’t get it done.”

A Supply and Demand Problem

A high percentage of L.A.’s homeless population has mental illness and substance abuse problems, and L.A. County has concluded it has fewer than half the available mental health beds necessary to serve its population.

The judge’s order directs the city and county to spend more of the funds to expand mental health and substance abuse services within 90 days.

“[The county’s] substance abuse and mental health services are atrocious. So by requiring the county to actually treat people who need treatment…it’s life-changing,” says Mitchell. 

But there’s also a significant percentage of people who aren’t severely mentally ill or addicted to drugs at the time they become homeless, and living on the streets likely exacerbates mental health issues.

Some people who are living at the margin are pushed out of housing by a combination of high rents and inability to navigate the housing assistance bureaucracy.

The city exacerbated this problem on Skid Row in the 1950s and 1960s by condemning and demolishing half of the existing single-room occupancy hotels that housed many of the neighborhood’s extremely low-income residents.

UCLA Economist William Yu is the latest researcher to find a strong correlation between high housing prices and homelessness in a survey of American cities.

California is home to some of the least affordable urban housing markets in the country, including the L.A. metro area, according to the U.S. Census Department’s American Community Survey. A county survey found that 60 percent of newly homeless people cite economic hardship as the leading factor in their lack of housing and that two-thirds became homeless while living in L.A. County.

The approach of local and state officials has largely been to promote measures like rent control and mandating low-cost housing in new construction.

But market urbanists have long said that housing is simply too expensive to build because of zoning, permitting, and onerous overregulation.

City leaders maintain that their involvement in real estate development remains essential to tackling housing affordability.

“It’s not simply a supply and demand issue in the sense that we’re seeing supply go up, but it tends to often be this luxury housing,” says Blumenfield. 

But a Journal of Urban Economics study of the Bay Area found that “local land use regulations are closely linked to the value of houses sold.” A Brookings Institution study of California found “cities with less restrictive zoning and large populations issued more multifamily permits,” and a Federal Reserve study found that in metros where demand for housing is high, more regulations correlated to “almost double the increase in housing prices.”

Even regulation meant to directly address the problem by mandating affordable housing caused prices to rise 2 to 3 percent faster, according to a 2009 HUD study.

Since the housing market’s structural problems won’t be fixed anytime soon, the homeless population is likely to keep growing.

And Mayor Garcetti may be headed out the door after reportedly being offered an ambassadorship to India from the Biden administration. But his successor will have to decide whether to continue on the course he’s set by fighting a legal battle, while spending taxpayer money on six-figure permanent housing units, or to shift course in favor of cheaper, faster emergency shelters to more immediately address the deteriorating conditions in the city’s public spaces.

Los Angeles appears to be incapable of delivering adequate housing on its current path, which is why Judge Carter ordered the city to offer some form of shelter for everyone on Skid Row by October. The 9th Circuit overrode that order on June 10 pending an appeal to be heard on July 7.

“Humans weren’t meant to live without a roof over their heads,” says Bales. “It becomes very survival of the fittest and very violent…It’s beyond a disaster. And yet the officials seem to be allowing it to get worse rather than intervening.” 

Carter sees the current situation as not only a failure of current city leadership but a result of decades of government neglect and abuse, starting with the city creating and sustaining the squalor of Skid Row by making it a containment zone in 1976, using eminent domain to seize homes in poor communities for highway construction, and driving up housing prices through exclusionary zoning, blighting old properties and excessive permitting.

These are all policies that he says were “designed to segregate and disenfranchise,” the costs of which have fallen disproportionately on black Americans who make up 42 percent of the homeless population despite being only 7 percent of the city population.

“People want instant solution to homelessness, but you’re talking about 400 years of racism that has contributed to homelessness. So how do we undo that overnight is the big moral question of our time,” says Turk.  

Bales says that the city only continues to perpetuate these harms by dragging its feet when offered a path forward.

“All of the housing that we could possibly do would be the correct response,” says Bales. “How can you say a judge is slowing me down when we’ve developed 641 very expensive, slow-to-develop units? All that the city and county are doing is building the case against themselves for not wanting to address homelessness on Skid Row.”

Produced and edited by Zach Weissmueller; camera by Benjamin Gaskell, Paul Detrick, and Weissmueller; additional graphics by Calvin Tran and Isaac Reese. 

Photos: David Crane/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Sarah Reingewirtz/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Image of Sport/Newscom; Image of Sport/Newscom; Dylan Stewart/Image of Sport/Newscom; Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call/Newscom; Armando Arorizo/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Sarah Reingewirtz/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; KYLE GRILLOT/REUTERS/Newscom.

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Pfizer Vaccine 94 Percent Effective at Stopping Severe Sickness From Delta Variant


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Should you worry about the delta variant? Recent headlines have been filled with alarming warnings that existing vaccines may be no match for the rapidly spreading COVID-19 variant. Meanwhile, some authorities have been using the delta variant to suggest an end to the easing of public health restrictions like business closures and mask mandates or instituting such restrictions once again.

But while the delta variant definitely poses a risk for unvaccinated populations, its danger to vaccinated people may be overstated.

Yes, “new data from Israel suggest the effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine declines sharply when it’s pitted against the hyperinfectious delta variant,” Megan McArdle noted at The Washington Post yesterday. “Last week, more than half of all covid-19 cases in Israel reportedly occurred in people who were vaccinated; the vaccine appears to prevent only about two-thirds of symptomatic cases, compared with preventing almost 100 percent among older variants.”

While the Pfizer vaccine might not be as effective at totally thwarting the delta variant as it is with older strains of COVID-19, however, it still seems to protect recipients from the more severe effects of the virus.

“The vaccine protected 64% of inoculated people from infection during an outbreak of the Delta variant, down from 94% before,” points out the Wall Street Journal. “It was 94% effective at preventing severe illness in the same period, compared with 97% before, the [Israeli Health] ministry said.”

And some health experts are skeptical of the Israeli data, suggesting that it understates the value of the Pfizer vaccine against the delta variant.

“Speaking to colleagues in Israel, real skepticism about 64% number,” tweeted Ashish K. Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, on July 5. “Best data still suggest mRNA vaccines offer high degree of protection against infection” and “superb protection against severe illness.”

As of now, “if you’re vaccinated, I wouldn’t worry,” Jha commented.


FREE MARKETS

Porn site XTube announces plans to shut down amid targeting from values groups. “XTube, one of the first adult site (sic) to allow users to upload and share pornographic videos, is shutting down on September 5, thirteen years after it was founded,” reports Techspot. “While no reason for the closure has been given, it’s speculated that the legal problems faced by parent MindGeek influenced the decision.”

Mindgeek—which is also behind Pornhub—has been a major target of religious activists at Exodus Cry and the famous 1980s values group Morality in Media (now called the National Center on Sexual Exploitation), which have been leading a campaign against the company in Congress, the media, and the courts.


FREE MINDS


QUICK HITS

• We still don’t know if masks work.

• “Keeping American boots on the ground means keeping them in harm’s way,” writes Fiona Harrigan.

• Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, is drawing criticism for his plan to fund airline tickets for people who travel to Tennessee.

• “Chime, a ‘neobank’ serving millions, is racking up complaints from users who can’t access their cash,” reports ProPublica. “The company says it’s cracking down on an ‘extraordinary surge’ in fraudulent deposits. That’s little consolation to customers caught in the fray.”

• How antitrust can hurt U.S. competitiveness.

• Another tale of out-of-control child protective services.

• Protecting and serving:

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Florida Braces For Tropical Storm Elsa, Landfall Expected Late Morning

Florida Braces For Tropical Storm Elsa, Landfall Expected Late Morning

Tropical Storm Elsa has been teetering between a tropical storm and hurricane strength for the last 24 or so hours. As of 0500 ET, Elsa had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and moved north at 14 mph along Florida’s west coast. 

By late Wednesday morning or early afternoon, Elsa is expected to make landfall around Florida’s Big Bend region. 

The storm weakened overnight after becoming a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday. At least 13 million people are under a tropical storm warning across Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Tuesday to include 33 counties. 

According to its website, Duke Energy, which serves 1.8 million customers in the state, was anticipated widespread outages. 

Luckily the storm tracked west of South Florida and avoided a direct hit of the collapsed condo site in Surfside. Even with its westerly track, some search and rescue efforts were delayed. As of this morning, there are at least 36 people dead and more than 100 unaccounted for. 

Weather models forecast after making landfall, Elsa will quickly traverse North Florida, dumping heavy amounts of rain and unleashing tropical strength winds, then move north to Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, and up into the Northeast before heading out in the Atlantic Ocean by late week. 

Here are our most recent notes on Elsa’s progression over the last week:

Elsa is the earliest fifth-named storm on record. It also broke the speed record for the fastest-moving hurricane, hitting 31 mph last weekend.  

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/07/2021 – 09:30

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