The Tomorrow War Is a Tortured Global Warming Metaphor Disguised as a Dull Action Movie


tomorrow-war-LG-use

Murderous alien monsters might be taking over the world and literally eating all but a few hundred thousand sad souls, but the real threat, it turns out, is global warming. That’s the gist of The Tomorrow War, a ho-hum, straight-to-streaming summer blockbuster that wants to be the next Terminator 2, but gets bogged down by metaphor service and a by-the-numbers screenplay that can’t deliver on its central promise.

Like Terminator 2, The Tomorrow War is a time-travel story about a hero sent from one year to another in order to stop a global threat. The twist this time around is that The Tomorrow War is about a hero sent forward in time from the present, rather than backward from a post-apocalyptic landscape.

Three decades from now, it turns out, humans are fighting a losing war against a horde of alien monsters known as White Spikes, named for the bone-like projectiles they shoot from their limbs. The Spikes don’t appear to be particularly intelligent: They don’t use tools, and until late in the film, it’s not even clear how they arrived on the planet. But they are winning the battle against humanity, and projections show that the species has precious little time to live. So in order to recruit more fighters to keep the war effort going, the humans of the future look to the past, drafting mostly inexperienced present-day folks to fight and die against the spikes.

It’s Terminator 2 in reverse, with a little bit of Independence Day‘s wisecracking ordinary-heroes shtick thrown in for good measure: Our protagonist this time is Dan Forester, played by Chris Pratt—the Goofy Chris—and he’s both an ex-soldier turned high school science teacher, and the quintessential Good Dad. You can tell he’s a good dad because he does cute science stuff with his daughter and wears a soft-looking shawl-collar sweater in a comfortably appointed middle-class home. Look! All the clothing catalog–ready signifiers of middle-class decency, conveniently shoveled into the first 15 minutes of the script. (There’s also a grumpy, government-skeptical father figure played by J.K. Simmons, who, as is often the case, is the best thing about the movie. Sadly, he’s also barely in it.)

Fine, sure, let’s get on with it: The family connection stuff is generically heartwarming, but no better; the tug of lineage feels entirely pro forma, a vehicle for some perfunctory emotional connection to the futuristic action scenes that inevitably proceed. This is the bit that’s supposed to ground viewers in something relatable before all the hectic alien combat that happens later on, but it’s handled in a rote and clunky manner that, if anything, made me care less.

Inevitably, Forester meets his now-adult daughter in the alien-wrecked future to which he travels. She’s grown up to be a researcher working on a weapon that might help humanity win the war—and as it turns out, Papa Forester needs to deliver it back to the past. So the daddy-daughter duo fight aliens, bond while doing some Plot-Relevant Science Stuff in an ocean-bound lab, and eventually formulate a vial-shaped MacGuffin that Forester has to take home to the past.

It’s at this point that you slowly begin to realize the harsh and terrible truth about what’s truly going on: This movie, which has already run for an hour and 40 minutes, still has about 40 minutes to go.

The action scenes are loud and frantic but not much else. There’s a rudimentary progression to the set pieces—this time there are even more monsters!—but little in the way of real suspense. And while there are some potentially thorny moral and logical questions here about balancing the demands of probable future humans with those very much presently alive, the production mostly comes across as a series of clumsy box-checking exercises designed to advance to the big reveal at the end…which is less of a shocking story development and more of a hit-you-on-the-head metaphor about global warming.

There’s no way to discuss that metaphor without venturing into spoiler territory, so twist-a-phobes, consider yourselves warned.

You see, the aliens aren’t intelligent because they didn’t fly themselves to the Earth. Instead, they were (probably) planet-clearing bioweapons being transported as cargo on a ship that crashed in the Russian tundra hundreds of years ago. They were trapped in the ice—that is, until climate change thawed a glacier and set them free. Forester (did you catch the name? Forest…get it?), of course, discovers this with the help of a volcano-obsessed kid in his science class, because, you know, kids! Science! It’s all so obvious if you’re paying attention.

You see, in the end, it’s all about saving the children, and the way to save the children is for today’s adults to act now, before it’s too late, because our future is so precious and blah blah blah. The deadly monsters were unleashed by our inattention to the science, and if only we’d…yawwwwwwwwn. Al Gore’s filmed PowerPoint lecture held my attention better than this. And if nothing else, An Inconvenient Truth was only 96 minutes long.

I have no problem with political messages and metaphors in movies, even when I disagree with those messages. And for what it’s worth, I very much agree with my colleague Ron Bailey that climate change is real and could pose significant challenges for human society.

But to be effective as a sociopolitical metaphor, a movie like The Tomorrow War also needs to be modestly entertaining. It needs to find a novel way to make its boogeyman seem more real, more worrisome, more threatening. It needs to make you care. (One of the many reasons Terminator 2 is a classic is that it excelled at this.) 

Instead, The Tomorrow War‘s stolidly by-the-numbers narrative and punishingly generic cast of characters have the opposite effect: It left me uninterested and increasingly bored. By the time the overlong third act rolled around, I just wanted the movie to be over. There’s probably a lesson there for both Hollywood blockbusters and climate change activists, but I can’t imagine anyone will learn it.

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Who’s Hiring And Who’s Firing: More Than Half Of All Job Gains Were Bartenders And Teachers

Who’s Hiring And Who’s Firing: More Than Half Of All Job Gains Were Bartenders And Teachers

There was a glaring contradiction in today’s jobs report which on one hand indicated an impressive gain in payrolls (measured by the Establishment survey), which rose 850K in June, and well above expectations, while on the other hand, the number of employed people (measured by the Household survey) actually declined by 18K to 151.602MM. While we assume this discrepancy was due to seasonal adjustments in the Establishment survey and will be revised in coming months, we take a look at the job sectors that moved the most in the month of June.

In keeping with tradition, one of the biggest jumps was in the food service and drinking places, i.e., waiters and bartenders, which jumped by a whopping 194,300 in June. This was the 6th consecutive month of growth for the sector, and the 5th in a row with more than 100,000 job gains.

While continued gains in this job category are hardly a surprise, what was surprising is that according to the BLS June saw a surge in teachers, as “employment rose by 155,000 in local government education, by 75,000 in state government education, and by 39,000 in private education” or a total of 269,000. Which is bizarre to say the least as it happens just as the school year ends.

How can that be? Well, not even the BLS is sure, noting that “in both public and private education, staffing fluctuations due to the pandemic, in part reflecting the return to in-person learning and other school-related activities, have distorted the normal seasonal buildup and layoff patterns, likely contributing to the job gains in June.” The most likely explanation: seasonal distortions, to wit: “Without the typical seasonal employment increases earlier, there were fewer layoffs at the end of the school year, resulting in job gains after seasonal adjustment.”

In other words, the usual GIGO from the DOL, but that’s the “data” we have which means that more than half of all job gains in June were from waiters/bartenders and teachers, which collectively added 463,300 seasonally-adjusted jobs, or 55% of the 850,000 gain.

Here is a full breakdown of all the job gains in June

  • Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 343,000, as pandemic- related restrictions continued to ease in some parts of the country. Over half of the job gain was in food services and drinking places (+194,000). Employment also continued to increase in accommodation (+75,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+74,000).
  • Employment rose by 155,000 in local government education, by 75,000 in state government education, and by 39,000 in private education, or a total of 269K new teachers! In both public and private education, staffing fluctuations due to the pandemic, in part reflecting the return to in-person learning and other school-related activities, have distorted the normal seasonal buildup and layoff patterns, likely contributing to the job gains in June. (Without the typical seasonal employment increases earlier, there were fewer layoffs at the end of the school year, resulting in job gains after seasonal adjustment.) These variations make it more challenging to discern the current employment trends in these industries.
  • Employment in professional and business services rose by 72,000 in June but is down by 633,000 since February 2020. In June,  employment rose in temporary help services (+33,000), advertising and related services (+8,000), scientific research and development services (+7,000), and legal services (+6,000).
  • Retail trade added 67,000 jobs in June, but employment is down by 303,000, or 1.9 percent, since February 2020. Over the month, job growth in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+28,000), general merchandise stores (+25,000), miscellaneous store retailers (+13,000), and automobile dealers (+8,000) was partially offset by losses in food and beverage stores (-13,000) and health and personal care stores (-7,000).
  • The other services industry added 56,000 jobs in June, with gains in personal and laundry services (+29,000), in membership associations and organizations (+18,000), and in repair and maintenance (+9,000).
  • Employment in social assistance rose by 32,000 in June, largely in child day care services (+25,000). Employment in social assistance is down by 236,000 from its level in February 2020.
  • In June, wholesale trade added 21,000 jobs, with gains in both the durable and nondurable goods components (+14,000 and +9,000, respectively).
  • Employment in mining rose by 10,000 in June, reflecting a gain in support activities for mining.
  • Employment in manufacturing changed little in June (+15,000). Within the industry, job gains in furniture and related products (+9,000), fabricated metal products (+6,000), and primary metals (+3,000) were partially offset by a loss in motor vehicles and parts (-12,000).
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing was little changed in June (+11,000). Employment gains in warehousing and storage (+14,000), air transportation (+8,000), and truck transportation (+6,000) were partially offset by a loss in couriers and messengers (-24,000).
  • Construction employment changed little in June (-7,000). Over-the-month job losses in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-15,000) and heavy and civil engineering construction (-11,000) were partially offset by a gain in residential specialty trade contractors (+13,000).

And visually:

Finally, courtesy of Bloomberg, here are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month. Additionally, monthly growth rates are shown for the prior year. The latest month’s figures are highlighted.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/02/2021 – 10:27

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3jJuIxI Tyler Durden

Great Moments in Unintended Consequences (Vol. 4)


8122797

Even more of Reason‘s “great moments in unintended consequences”—stories of when something that sounds like a terrific idea goes horribly wrong.

Watch the whole series.

Black Liquor Bonanza

The Year: 2005

The Problem: Fossil fuel consumption is too high, and biodiesel consumption is too low!

The Solution: Create a generous tax credit for companies that blend fossil fuel with environmentally friendly biofuel.

Sounds like a great idea with the best of intentions. What could possibly go wrong?

Turns out paper companies were already using a pure biofuel known as black liquor, which is produced during the paper-making process. It’s a super convenient energy source to use in paper plants and mills, but only blended fuels were eligible for the tax credit.

So paper companies bought fossil fuel they didn’t need, added it to the biofuel they were already using, and instantly qualified for very generous “blended alternative fuel” credits. Exactly the opposite of the tax credits’ intent, but sometimes it all boils down to paper.

Billboard Bans

The year: 1968

The Problem: Billboards are cluttering the scenic vistas of Vermont.

The Solution: Ban Billboards.

Sounds like a great idea with the best of intentions. What could possibly go wrong?

As the billboards came down, something new popped up: a 12-foot gorilla holding up a Volkswagen. A giant squirrel in a striped bathing suit. A 19-foot genie holding a carpet.

“A veritable zoo of Gargantuan concrete sculpture” all in the name of public art.

It all seems a bit cute until a development dispute with the local bureaucracy results in a 700-pound middle finger on a 16-foot pole.

Enjoy the view, Vermont!

Equal Pay in Colorado

The Year: 2019

The Problem: the gender pay gap.

The Solution: the Colorado Equal Pay for Equal Work Act—a bevy of new regulations on employers, including a requirement that all forms of compensation be disclosed as part of every job listing, and a ban on asking job candidates about their salary history.

Sounds like a great idea with the best of intentions. What could possibly go wrong?

Not only does the law open up companies to new legal liabilities and administrative burdens, but it also hinders employer flexibility when it comes to hiring. As a result, some companies like Samsung, Century 21, Cigna, IBM, Nike, and even People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) have simply excluded Colorado from their remote job listings.

Can’t have a pay gap if you don’t have a paycheck! Mission accomplished, Colorado!

Written and produced by Meredith and Austin Bragg; narrated by Austin Bragg

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Since When Is A Little Rate Hike Years From Now Hawkish?

Since When Is A Little Rate Hike Years From Now Hawkish?

Via SchiffGold.com,

Markets reacted strongly to what many considered “hawkish” messaging coming out of the June Federal Reserve meeting. But is the Fed really taking a “hawkish” position?

Peter Schiff said the Fed was engaging in a “no stick” monetary policy. And in his Friday Gold Wrap podcast, Mike Maharrey argued the Fed was a dove in hawks clothing, arguing we should look at the Fed’s actions, not the messaging.

Economist Doug FrencH asks a crucial question. Even if you take the Fed’s talk at face value, is a half-point interest rate hike in two years really “hawkish?”

Since when is forecasting a couple rate bumps two years from now considered hawkish to the point of making the dollar pop and gold flop?”

The following article by Doug French was originally published at the Mises Wire. The opinions expressed are the authors and don’t necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

The Fed announced the reportedly hawkish news that the central bank may raise rates, not this year, not next year, but by fifty basis points sometime in 2023. This tapering would slow the Fed’s buying of $120 billion of debt securities a month with money created from the ether to some lesser amount.

People forget the central bank “kept its benchmark rate on hold for a 10th straight meeting after sweeping into emergency action amid the coronavirus pandemic in March of last year with a full percentage-point cut.” Yet again emergency government action has become permanent.

This news sent the dollar screaming upward, with the DXY jumping from 90.54 to 92.32 at week’s end. The price of gold was, of course, bludgeoned. The yellow metal dropped 6.5 percent over the next five days. The ten-year Treasury bond finished the week at a paltry 1.44 percent. Meanwhile, financial basket case Greece saw its ten-year rate finish at seventy-nine basis points.

Making no news was Lyn Alden’s tweet that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet crossed $8 trillion in assets. Fed watcher Alden followed this with the news, “Reverse repos jumped $235 billion today to $755 billion.”

Chairman Powell didn’t articulate what the Fed will do; the financial press deciphered it this way, per Bloomberg: “The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, which the U.S. central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows that officials expect no change in policy this year, while leaning toward two rate increases by the end of 2023, based on median estimates.”

Does this make sense? Free markets at work? Logical price discovery? After all, as Murray Rothbard explained, “Since the investment is always in anticipation of later sale, the investors are also engaged in entrepreneurship, in enterprise.”

Since when is forecasting a couple of rate bumps two years from now considered hawkish to the point of making the dollar pop and gold flop?

Since it’s a Keynesian world, rather than an Austrian one, Lord Keynes reminds us, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Another point of view is “I’m looking at the gold market right now and I think this could prove to be a good time to buy,” George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said. “I see a lot of panic selling and I don’t think that can last much longer. Basically, the markets saw higher inflation and higher interest rates, but they completely ignored the fact that the hikes are at least two years away. A lot can happen in two years.”

Milling-Stanley has a long enough memory to make the point, “the last time that the Fed was actually in a rate tightening mode was between December of 2015 and December of 2018, so gold should have gone down. But it went from $1,050 in December of 2015 to $1,270 by December of 2018. So gold went up 21% in those three years, even though rates were raised nine times.”

Keynes pointed out, “For it is, so to speak, a game of Snap, of Old Maid, of Musical Chairs—a pastime in which he is victor who says Snap neither too soon nor too late, who passed the Old Maid to his neighbour before the game is over, who secures a chair for himself when the music stops. These games can be played with zest and enjoyment, though all the players know that it is the Old Maid which is circulating, or that when the music stops some of the players will find themselves unseated.”

While Keynes viewed speculation as a game, Rothbard viewed it more seriously. “Entrepreneurship is also the dominant characteristic of buyers and sellers who act speculatively, who specialize in anticipating higher or lower prices in the future. Their entire action consists in attempts to anticipate future market prices, and their success depends on how accurate or erroneous their forecasts are.”

Nobody can say for sure the Fed will taper or increase rates. And just because the Fed’s inflation has forced us all to learn to pump our own gas and scan our groceries, not many have the entrepreneurial savvy to invest properly to fund retirement.

With the eight hundred–pound Fed in the markets, finding a chair and forecasting accurately may be next to impossible.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/02/2021 – 10:16

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3yi5rz2 Tyler Durden

US Factory Orders Rebounded In May

US Factory Orders Rebounded In May

After a disappointing and surprising drop in April (initially down 0.6% MoM but upwardly revised to a 0.1% drop), US Factory Orders rebounded strongly in May (up 1.7% MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core factory orders also rose (up 0.7% MoM) but that pace was slowed than April 1.0% MoM rise.

The Final May Durables Goods Orders print confirmed the flash print at a solid 2.3% MoM gain.

Another Goldilocks-ish number.

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/02/2021 – 10:08

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/36aA1yg Tyler Durden

Great Moments in Unintended Consequences (Vol. 4)


8122797

Even more of Reason‘s “great moments in unintended consequences”—stories of when something that sounds like a terrific idea goes horribly wrong.

Watch the whole series.

Black Liquor Bonanza

The Year: 2005

The Problem: Fossil fuel consumption is too high, and biodiesel consumption is too low!

The Solution: Create a generous tax credit for companies that blend fossil fuel with environmentally friendly biofuel.

Sounds like a great idea with the best of intentions. What could possibly go wrong?

Turns out paper companies were already using a pure biofuel known as black liquor, which is produced during the paper-making process. It’s a super convenient energy source to use in paper plants and mills, but only blended fuels were eligible for the tax credit.

So paper companies bought fossil fuel they didn’t need, added it to the biofuel they were already using, and instantly qualified for very generous “blended alternative fuel” credits. Exactly the opposite of the tax credits’ intent, but sometimes it all boils down to paper.

Billboard Bans

The year: 1968

The Problem: Billboards are cluttering the scenic vistas of Vermont.

The Solution: Ban Billboards.

Sounds like a great idea with the best of intentions. What could possibly go wrong?

As the billboards came down, something new popped up: a 12-foot gorilla holding up a Volkswagen. A giant squirrel in a striped bathing suit. A 19-foot genie holding a carpet.

“A veritable zoo of Gargantuan concrete sculpture” all in the name of public art.

It all seems a bit cute until a development dispute with the local bureaucracy results in a 700-pound middle finger on a 16-foot pole.

Enjoy the view, Vermont!

Equal Pay in Colorado

The Year: 2019

The Problem: the gender pay gap.

The Solution: the Colorado Equal Pay for Equal Work Act—a bevy of new regulations on employers, including a requirement that all forms of compensation be disclosed as part of every job listing, and a ban on asking job candidates about their salary history.

Sounds like a great idea with the best of intentions. What could possibly go wrong?

Not only does the law open up companies to new legal liabilities and administrative burdens, but it also hinders employer flexibility when it comes to hiring. As a result, some companies like Samsung, Century 21, Cigna, IBM, Nike, and even People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) have simply excluded Colorado from their remote job listings.

Can’t have a pay gap if you don’t have a paycheck! Mission accomplished, Colorado!

Written and produced by Meredith and Austin Bragg; narrated by Austin Bragg

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Boeing 737 Cargo Plane “Goes Down” In Water Off Hawaii: CNBC

Boeing 737 Cargo Plane “Goes Down” In Water Off Hawaii: CNBC

Sources tell CNBC that a Boeing 737 freighter has splashed down in the water off Honolulu, Hawaii, after suffering engine trouble. 

A Boeing 737 cargo plane has gone down in the water off Honolulu after experiencing engine trouble; severity of crash, extent of rescue operation unclear at this time – CNBC

Boeing shares have sunk nearly 1.50% on the news. 

Details are scant at the moment, and we will be updating the post as developments come in. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/02/2021 – 09:49

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2TxCTm6 Tyler Durden

The U.S. Quietly Departs Its Largest Military Base in Afghanistan


reason-afghanistan

The U.S. military fully departed its largest base in Afghanistan last night, giving the surest sign yet that all American forces could be out of the country by September 11. On Thursday night, American forces stationed at Bagram Airfield quietly left the massive facility, the Associated Press reports.

U.S. troops pulled out of the base without any formal ceremony, or even an attempt to coordinate with local Afghan officials, who are now responsible for Bagram. The hasty withdrawal resulted in a wave of looters rushing the unsecured base and ransacking several buildings before Afghan security forces were able to regain control.

Bagram, first built by the Soviets in the 1950s, served as the center of the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan. At the height of the American presence there, over 100,000 troops were passing through the base each year. It was infamously home to a detention center, where prisoners captured during the war were held and, on a number of occasions, tortured.

There are currently somewhere between 2,500 and 3,500 U.S. troops still in Afghanistan, although precise numbers are hard to come by given the inconsistent ways that the military tallies up troops in the country. The Biden administration has committed to pulling all these troops out of the country by September 11, save for a couple hundred to guard the U.S. embassy in the capital Kabul. Most troops should be gone by July 4.

That’s an extension of the May 1 withdrawal date that the previous Trump administration had committed to.

Most of the 7,000 European troops stationed in Afghanistan as part of the NATO mission there have been withdrawn over the past month, according to the A.P.

Even with most military personnel gone, there’s still a distinct possibility that the U.S. will continue smaller-scale, covert operations in the country in order to target Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.

The American military troop withdrawal has increased the urgency of addressing the huge backlog of visa applications of Afghans who’d worked with the U.S. military as interpreters, and whose lives are now in danger from a resurgent Taliban.

The Taliban has doubled the amount of Afghanistan it controls over the past several months, NBC News reported last week. The Afghan government’s security forces that the U.S. has spent billions of dollars and two decades training have proven ineffective at stopping the group’s advance.


FREE MINDS

U.S. sprinter Sha’Carri Richardson might miss the Tokyo Olympics after testing positive for marijuana. Cincinnati Enquirer reporter Tyler Dragon says that Richardson is facing a 30-day suspension that would prevent her from participating in the 100-meter dash. Even if suspended, she still would be able to compete in the 4×100-meter relay.

Bleacher Report has more details about Richardson’s potential suspension:

Andre Lowe of Jamaica Gleaner reported “traces of the substance” were found in Richardson’s sample collected at the Olympic Trials, yet that doesn’t mean an automatic suspension is looming.

The World Anti-Doping Agency’s prohibited substance list includes all natural and synthetic cannabinoids—with the exception of cannabidiol—but specifies those are banned during competition. As Lowe noted, if an athlete can prove they did not use the substance during the trials, they may only be looking at a three-month ban, which could also be reduced if the athlete submits to an approved treatment program.

Should Richardson have her spot on the Olympic team revoked, Jenna Prandini—who placed fourth in the 100-meter—will serve as a replacement.


FREE MARKETS

The Biden administration has gained international support for its plans to create a “global minimum tax.” On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reports that officials from 130 countries agreed to the broad strokes of a plan that would impose a corporate tax of at least 15 percent wherever a corporation is headquartered.

“Today’s agreement by 130 countries representing more than 90% of global GDP is a clear sign: The race to the bottom is one step closer to coming to an end,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who’d been leading the negotiations.

A report from the Tax Foundation notes that most studies have found that the majority of the corporate tax burden, as much as 70 percent, is paid by employees in the form of reduced wages.


QUICK HITS

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) announces the members of the House’s select committee that will investigate the January 6 riot at the Capitol.

• A new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that minimum wage increases in Los Angeles were paid for by customers in higher-income neighborhoods. Business owners and commercial landlords primarily absorbed the costs in lower-income areas.

• California gubernatorial candidate Caitlin Jenner suggests the state’s homeless could be moved to “big open fields.”

• Federal prosecutors have hit the Trump Organization and its CFO, Allen Weisselberg, with criminal charges for an alleged multi-year tax fraud scheme. Former President Donald Trump said in a statement that the charges were a “political Witch Hunt by the Radical Left Democrats.”

• Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Ohio.

• An approaching tropical storm is complicating search and rescue efforts at the site of a collapsed condo building in Surfside, Florida.

• Trumpworld figures launch new social media platform GETTR.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2UlrDcQ
via IFTTT

The U.S. Quietly Departs Its Largest Military Base in Afghanistan


reason-afghanistan

The U.S. military fully departed its largest base in Afghanistan last night, giving the surest sign yet that all American forces could be out of the country by September 11. On Thursday night, American forces stationed at Bagram Airfield quietly left the massive facility, the Associated Press reports.

U.S. troops pulled out of the base without any formal ceremony, or even an attempt to coordinate with local Afghan officials, who are now responsible for Bagram. The hasty withdrawal resulted in a wave of looters rushing the unsecured base and ransacking several buildings before Afghan security forces were able to regain control.

Bagram, first built by the Soviets in the 1950s, served as the center of the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan. At the height of the American presence there, over 100,000 troops were passing through the base each year. It was infamously home to a detention center, where prisoners captured during the war were held and, on a number of occasions, tortured.

There are currently somewhere between 2,500 and 3,500 U.S. troops still in Afghanistan, although precise numbers are hard to come by given the inconsistent ways that the military tallies up troops in the country. The Biden administration has committed to pulling all these troops out of the country by September 11, save for a couple hundred to guard the U.S. embassy in the capital Kabul. Most troops should be gone by July 4.

That’s an extension of the May 1 withdrawal date that the previous Trump administration had committed to.

Most of the 7,000 European troops stationed in Afghanistan as part of the NATO mission there have been withdrawn over the past month, according to the A.P.

Even with most military personnel gone, there’s still a distinct possibility that the U.S. will continue smaller-scale, covert operations in the country in order to target Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.

The American military troop withdrawal has increased the urgency of addressing the huge backlog of visa applications of Afghans who’d worked with the U.S. military as interpreters, and whose lives are now in danger from a resurgent Taliban.

The Taliban has doubled the amount of Afghanistan it controls over the past several months, NBC News reported last week. The Afghan government’s security forces that the U.S. has spent billions of dollars and two decades training have proven ineffective at stopping the group’s advance.


FREE MINDS

U.S. sprinter Sha’Carri Richardson might miss the Tokyo Olympics after testing positive for marijuana. Cincinnati Enquirer reporter Tyler Dragon says that Richardson is facing a 30-day suspension that would prevent her from participating in the 100-meter dash. Even if suspended, she still would be able to compete in the 4×100-meter relay.

Bleacher Report has more details about Richardson’s potential suspension:

Andre Lowe of Jamaica Gleaner reported “traces of the substance” were found in Richardson’s sample collected at the Olympic Trials, yet that doesn’t mean an automatic suspension is looming.

The World Anti-Doping Agency’s prohibited substance list includes all natural and synthetic cannabinoids—with the exception of cannabidiol—but specifies those are banned during competition. As Lowe noted, if an athlete can prove they did not use the substance during the trials, they may only be looking at a three-month ban, which could also be reduced if the athlete submits to an approved treatment program.

Should Richardson have her spot on the Olympic team revoked, Jenna Prandini—who placed fourth in the 100-meter—will serve as a replacement.


FREE MARKETS

The Biden administration has gained international support for its plans to create a “global minimum tax.” On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reports that officials from 130 countries agreed to the broad strokes of a plan that would impose a corporate tax of at least 15 percent wherever a corporation is headquartered.

“Today’s agreement by 130 countries representing more than 90% of global GDP is a clear sign: The race to the bottom is one step closer to coming to an end,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who’d been leading the negotiations.

A report from the Tax Foundation notes that most studies have found that the majority of the corporate tax burden, as much as 70 percent, is paid by employees in the form of reduced wages.


QUICK HITS

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) announces the members of the House’s select committee that will investigate the January 6 riot at the Capitol.

• A new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that minimum wage increases in Los Angeles were paid for by customers in higher-income neighborhoods. Business owners and commercial landlords primarily absorbed the costs in lower-income areas.

• California gubernatorial candidate Caitlin Jenner suggests the state’s homeless could be moved to “big open fields.”

• Federal prosecutors have hit the Trump Organization and its CFO, Allen Weisselberg, with criminal charges for an alleged multi-year tax fraud scheme. Former President Donald Trump said in a statement that the charges were a “political Witch Hunt by the Radical Left Democrats.”

• Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Ohio.

• An approaching tropical storm is complicating search and rescue efforts at the site of a collapsed condo building in Surfside, Florida.

• Trumpworld figures launch new social media platform GETTR.

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The Bubble Epoch Gets Worse

The Bubble Epoch Gets Worse

Authored by Bill Bonner viaRogueEconomics.com,

Yes, it’s the age of miracles. The Bubble Epoch. The silly season

And it just gets sillier and sillier.

Christine Lagarde, who holds the top spot at the European Central Bank (ECB), announced that she’s going to continue pumping up the money supply by 17 billion euros per week.

She says it is going to add 1.8% to Europe’s growth over the next two years. That is, somehow the fake money will be magically transformed into real wealth.

How does she know that?

Strange Voodoo

Oh, Dear Reader, is that a serious question? Of course, she has no idea…

And by the way, if her €17 billion per week would add precisely 1.8% to the economy, why not print €18 billion and get 1.9%, we wonder? Or €100 billion?

Apparently, none of the journalists who cover the ECB thought to ask… So we’ll just have to go on wondering.

What strange voodoo is this… that 17 billion per week is the exact number of euros needed to raise GDP by 1.8%?

A Good Deal

Meanwhile, her co-delusional over in the U.S., Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, says he’s going to continue the money-printing, too – at the rate of $30 billion per week.

His aim is to hit 2% inflation – not 2.1%, not 1.9% – which he’s convinced is some sort of sacred number guaranteeing uninterrupted growth and full employment.

What it actually guarantees is higher prices, as we see in the asset markets. The S&P 500 just hit another new all-time highAs did house prices.

The Fed is buying $40 billion worth of mortgage bonds each month, driving down mortgage rates to the point where you can get a 15-year mortgage at a negative rate.

That is, your mortgage interest will be less than the going rate of consumer price inflation.

A good deal? Apparently.

And it’s likely to be a better deal if tomorrow’s inflation makes today’s mortgage rates even more negative.

Housing Market Update

Capitalism never strikes out completely. It just swings at whatever wacko spit-balls the authorities send its way.

Here’s an update from yesterday’s Stansberry’s Morning Market Update:

According to the Census Bureau, sales of newly constructed homes fell 5.9% from the month prior to an annualized rate of 769,000. That was below Wall Street’s estimate of 817,000. It also marked the third decline in the last four months.

Existing home sales saw a similar story. The National Association of Realtors reported a 0.9% drop from 5.85 million sold in April to 5.8 million in May. However, that exceeded analysts’ expectation for 5.73 million existing home sales.

Yet, according to the Census Bureau, prices are up 23.6% on a year-over-year basis. The figures hit a record-average price of $350,300 in May.

Let’s see… Fewer houses for sale. Higher prices. Inflation!

Swing for the Fences

But the wilder the pitches… the wilder the swings… and the more foul balls.

Facebook – a timewaster! – was worth more than $1 trillion dollars yesterday. Tesla, a company that loses more than $1,000 on every car it makes, was not far behind, at $650 billion.

Invisible art… NFTs… joke cryptos… MicroStrategy… SPACs

An investor gives a SPAC (special-purpose acquisition company) his money. The SPAC looks for something to buy.

The targets are coy. They know the score. There are no “walks” in the SPAC game. If the SPAC makes no purchase within two years, it must give the money back to the investors. And then, the SPACsters lose money.

If they make a purchase, on the other hand, even if it is a bad one, they get 20% of the deal, just for putting it together.

Won’t they swing at almost anything?

Zombie Companies

Meanwhile, a serious investor can only laugh. He needs facts… figures… profits!

If he is buying a soap company, for example, he might reasonably enquire as to how many bars of soap the company sold last year… and at what profit margin.

But even asking the questions puts him out-of-step with the whole team of uncoordinated lunatics who make up today’s financial world.

Profits? Airbnb, Dropbox, Casper, Blue Apron, Lime, Lyft, Peloton, Pinterest, Slack, Snap, Uber, WeWork, Wayfair, Zillow – none of them are profitable.

And here’s the latest from Bloomberg:

Since the end of March, almost 100 unprofitable U.S. companies, including GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., have raised money through secondary offerings, twice as many as coming from profitable firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. …

During the past 12 months, almost 750 money-losing firms have sold shares in the secondary market, exceeding those that make profits by the biggest margin since at least 1982, data compiled by Sundial Capital Research show.

$3 Billion Home Run

But at least there are a couple of capitalists who hit a home run, with $3 billion in fees coming their way from the most reliable payer in the world, the U.S. government.

What’s their secret? Simple. They set up websites and ran ads to offer free money. No kidding.

One ad on Facebook: “Literally free money for those who qualify.”

Who qualified? Almost everyone.

Another ad you might have seen on billboards or buses spelled it out: “Get up to $50,000 in PPP. Apply now.”

The two small companies partnered with banks to hand out Paycheck Protection Program cash.

Everybody involved made money. The banks made the loans (guaranteed by the feds). The loan recipients got the money and, generally, didn’t have to pay it back.

But nobody made more than these two companies, Blueacorn and Womply. According to an analysis by The New York Times, they have $3 billion to split between them.

But wait. Whose money are they divvying up?

Oh, Dear Reader, don’t ask such silly questions.

Just enjoy the game.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/02/2021 – 09:10

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